Monthly Archives: November 2014

Idaho @ Appalachian Football

Posted on by
2

Here we go with Week 12

Idaho (1-9, 1-6 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (6-5, 5-2 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 29th, 2:00pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 59.94

Idaho: 47.95

Home: 3.15

App State is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 15 points

Sportsbook: App State -17.5, O/U 64.5

Series: first meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Call it whatever you want it this point, but don’t call it a comeback. Indeed, Appalachian football has been here for years, and despite an eighteen game hiatus from dominant football, the Mountaineers are definitely back. There were plenty of doubters, and plenty of believers, but there is not a soul alive who thought the Mountaineers would have gone from 1-5 to where they are at this point. One game stands between the Mountaineers and a top three finish in their first year of FBS transition in the Sun Belt and a winning record. It has been over thirty years since the Mountaineers had back to back losing seasons, dating all the way back to the 1981-82 seasons. Last weeks win over the kings of the Sun Belt, Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns ensured at worst, a break even record. Has 6-5 ever felt so good? It has not. There is no way. Never has a team knocked off Arkansas State and Lafayette in back to back weekends on the road. Scott Satterfield has accomplished the feat twice, defeating the two in consecutive games, the only coach to do it, but even the head coach one-upped himself with his team full of road warriors. We have all been witness to some big time wins over the years by the Mountaineers. But rarely has a Mountaineer team surprised me with their play as much as this team has in the past five weeks. Anyone can win a few games in a row with luck, but the Mountaineers have had none bounce their way. This has been the most dominating stretch of football I have seen by any Mountaineer team. The only moment that could make it better is by sending the seniors off with one last win.

The stakes have changed a little bit. In the past five games, the opponent has been increasingly tougher, posing a different challenge with each passing week. But Idaho will bring to Boone a team that has one win on the season over a New Mexico State team that has two wins. That win was over a month ago and Idaho will have had a two week layoff since their last game they played on November 15th when they face off against Appalachian on Saturday. Idaho’s schedule has been a challenge all season. You might remember on college football’s opening weekend when Idaho travelled to Florida and the game was terminated after the opening kickoff. Idaho then went back on the road to Monroe the following weekend and have since had road trips to Ohio, San Marcos, Texas and Statesboro. The Vandals drew the short straw having to visit both of the transitional teams on the east coast. In fact, all seven road games that Idaho played were in states that bordered a major body of water, if you include Lake Erie. Enough geography, let’s talk about some football.

Vandal head coach Paul Petrino is most notably known for the infamous actions of his brother Bobby Petrino, who currently coaches Louisville. Paul was hired just twelve days before Scott Satterfield was in December 2012. Idaho is the first head coaching job for Paul Petrino after spending plenty of time with his brother at Louisville, Arkansas and the Atlanta Falcons. Petrino has only two wins to his name in his first two seasons, as Idaho beat Temple last year at home. Oddly enough, Petrino’s two wins have both come on Idaho’s homecoming game. Idaho is 0-13 on the road during Petrino’s tenure.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Linehan has followed a family lineage to Moscow, Idaho. His father Scott was also also a Vandal quarterback and is currently an assistant with the Dallas Cowboys. Linehan leads the Sun Belt’s top passing attack. Although the Vandals average 280 yards a game through the air as a team, Linehan is only responsible for 230 yards per game on his own. Of the six Sun Belt quarterbacks with over 300 pass attempts this season, Linehan has fewer completions and touchdown passes than any of them. Linehan also has the second most interceptions in the conference with seventeen. Linehan is one of two Sun Belt traditional quarterbacks with more interceptions than touchdown passes.

Joshua McCain is arguably the best receiver in the Sun Belt from a numbers perspective. He leads the conference in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. He is the only receiver in the conference with over 1,000 yards and he also leads the league with nine receiving touchdowns. He has 75% of his teams touchdown catches and is clear from the second leading receiver on his own team by 23 catches and 587 yards. To compare, Appalachian’s leading receiver in terms of yards, Malachi Jones, has 530 yards on the season.

Idaho’s rushing game averages just shy of 140 yards per game, but will face a tough test against Appalachian, who has only given up 82 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry on the ground in its last five games. Jerrel Brown and Elijhaa Penny have split carries for most of the season. The Vandals usually get into the game and the carries are split from that point based on production. Penny leads the team in touchdowns with ten as a larger running back, tipping the scales at over 250 pounds. Brown looks more like a typical back at 6’0 and 220 pounds. Brown is the senior and will be playing his last game on Saturday.

Guess what. We are going to talk about Marcus Cox some more because he is excellent. After carrying the load with 40 carries against Arkansas State, he followed that up with 36 carries and 151 yards against Lafayette. Cox’s stats in the last six games are the type of numbers some backs wish they see for the entire season: 958 yards, 12 touchdowns, 6 yards per carry. The next victim is a team giving up 5.7 yards per carry, 250 yards a game and 29 total touchdowns on the season against the run.

You mention the success of the offensive line which is playing lights out. Not only have they paved the way for Cox and Upshaw, but they have kept Taylor Lamb upright for the past five games. The line has surrendered only 11 sacks on the season and never more than two in any game. Think about it. One sack in five games have equaled five wins. On top of that, the protection has allowed Lamb to make his throws and kept the pressure off of him. Lamb has only two interceptions in the past five games. The pick versus Monroe was assumed to be a free play, on top of the ball slipping out of his hands, while the there is no explanation to the interception from last week. There was not a receiver in the area and ball had to have slipped again or his arm failed him.

Rarely do we pull quotes from message board banter during the week, but this one stuck out at me from a Louisiana fan. Obviously frustrated that one of the new kids on the block beat them in their own house, the poster opined, “Appalachian is not a flashy team, but does a really good job of making the other team look bad.” Last I checked, making the other team look bad is a good way to win football games. Flashy sells tickets, but nothing keeps the fans coming back like winning football games.

The Mountaineers are looking up and another win on Saturday would be a great way to end a season with the possibility of a bowl game likely out of reach. Getting to a seven wins after four last year will have exceeded all expectations. Generally this game sets up as a perfect time for a team to get overconfident and lay an egg. Although Idaho has had a tough season, they have also had two weeks to prepare for the Mountaineers. A win would also give the Vandals some much needed momentum heading into the recruiting season, and give the Vandals a banner win. If the Mountaineers had played the style of a overconfident bunch, it would raise concern, but this team has a blue collar attitude about it. It seems everyone has bought into the game plans and understands their roles. The Mountaineers will be hunting for big plays on defense on Saturday. Idaho has given up 38 sacks on the season in just ten games. Appalachian has improved tremendously in that area from 2012. Last year, the Mountaineers had eight sacks the entire season, compared to twenty-six this season. The Vandals average 2.7 turnovers a game on offense, with their defense only forcing 1.5 per game. The Mountaineers did lose the turnover battle last week, but still wound up with a near twenty point win despite those miscues. I can see Idaho hanging around if they can keep it close early, but the fourth quarter will eventually spell doom. The Mountaineers outscore their opponents by 51 points in the games final frame while the Idaho is also outscored by its opponents by 42 points on the season. I expect two Mountaineers will go over 100 yards on the ground in a season ending win

The First Pick:

Mountaineers 45

Jr. Joes 27

Men’s Basketball hosts Hampton

Posted on by
Reply

Last time out, Appalachian pulled the quietest upset in its recent basketball history with a slim victory over Virginia Tech. While most of the Mountaineer fans were glued to football game with Lafayette, Appalachian was outhustling the Hokies. Appalachian dominated on both ends of the glass, holding a 19-8 advantage of the offensive end and a 42-27 edge on the defensive glass.

Frank Eaves hit the game-winning jumper with one second on the clock after Virginia Tech could only manage to tie the game on the free throw line with ten seconds to play. The Hokies hit the first free throw to tie the game, but were called for a lane violation on the second attempt, which set up Eaves and his game winner.

We were a little bit too busy preparing for football festivities to check the line and eventually make a pick. Needless to say, Virginia Tech was favored in this game and the Mountaineers covered easily. That puts the Mountaineers at 1-2 against the spread this season, while our picks remain at 1-1 after “failing” to make a pick. Likely we would have taken Virginia Tech, and would have missed.

After getting his first win of his career on the road, Jim Fox and his Mountaineers will open the home slate of the schedule tonight against Hampton. The MEAC school is 1-3 on the year with a win over Alcorn State, and losses that include Syracuse, Iowa and North Dakota State.

Currently there is no line for the game, as is often the case when low-major opponents are involved. In the event that the bookies post one closer to gametime, you can catch the pick at my twitter account, @bigcasu

Appalachian Football @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 11

Appalachian State (5-5, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ Louisiana Lafayette (7-3, 6-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 22nd, 5:00pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Cajun Field

Surface: Pro Grass Synthetic

Capacity: 36,900

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 57.23

Lafayette: 66.28

Home: 3.15

Lafayette is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 12 points

Sportsbook: Lafayette -10, O/U 63

Series: first meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Validation. If beating Monroe was not enough to put the Sun Belt on notice, Appalachian’s win over Arkansas State last weekend made it official. Appalachian is getting back to its winning ways on the gridiron. In a truly dominating performance, the Mountaineers waltzed into Jonesboro and put a hurting on the defending three time Sun Belt champions. Like the week before against Monroe, Appalachian shook off a two touchdown deficit in the first half. This week the Mountaineers faced that gap twice in the games first thirty minutes. Appalachian scored on five straight possessions over a span that covered the second and third quarters, scoring thirty one points while they held the Red Wolves scoreless. Arkansas State would score twice late but the damage had been done. The Mountaineers had taken down the champs and had given them a loss that would keep them from contending for the Sun Belt title for the fourth straight year. The Mountaineers were left for dead after a dreadful overtime defeat on homecoming weekend. The team that lost that day hardly resembles the group that pummeled Arkansas State. Lafayette is a different animal and the Mountaineers will have to answer the bell again on the road in a tough environment. The test just got tougher.

If the Sun Belt had to choose the team football program in the conference that carries the banner, so to speak, it would likely be Lafayette. The Cajuns have been in the Sun Belt since 2001 and even though they struggled in their first ten season in the conference, the last three have all commenced with a 9-4 record and an appearance in the New Orleans Bowl. Lafayette has twice shared Sun Belt titles, in 2005 and 2013 and were hoping this was their year, with a senior-laden roster, to capture the title outright. In the preseason coaches poll, Lafayette was the unanimous choice to capture the championship. But as the season has wound down, the Cajuns find themselves once again hoping for a share of the title. Appalachian and Lafayette have shared four common opponents to this point in the season but neither of those matchups have taken place on the same field. Monroe is obviously undefeated in those four like games, while Appalachian is 3-1 against the same opponents.

If you are a crazy college football fan, you are familiar with the Cajuns and some parts of their roster. The New Orleans Bowl usually falls at a time during December when it literally is the only game being televised. More than likely you have heard of Terrance Broadway, the Cajun signal caller. Broadway started his college career at Houston before transferring. He was forced into the starting lineup as a sophomore. He started all but one game as a junior due to a broken arm. Broadway is considered a dual threat, but has had some mixed some results when he runs the ball. Depending on game flow, Broadway has run anywhere from five to nineteen times a game this season. He runs a little bit more at home than on the road this season, but at the time same time, his carries have increased in the last couple weeks, but his effectiveness peaked last month. Only four times this season has Broadway eclipsed 200 yards passing and his passing numbers have fallen noticeably over his career at Lafayette. His completion percentage has fallen about three points each year since 2012 and is on pace to throw for fewer yards than he did in 2013, which was also a decline from 2012. His average yards per pass has fallen over two yards and his touchdown/interception ratio has also declined with each passing season.

Pick your poison, or pepper in the Cajun backfield with Elijah McGuire and and Alonzo Harris. Both pose massive problems for any defensive front. McGuire is the comparatively smaller back at 5’11” and a boudin ball short of 200 pounds. McGuire has 960 yards on 127 carries on the year with eleven touchdowns. That counts for a robust 7.6 yards per carry. Harris tips the scales at 240 pounds and stands 6’1″. Harris and McGuire have split carries for the season pretty evenly, but Harris has not had the success of McGuire until last weekend. Harris had 133 yards last weekend against Monroe after sitting the previous week.

The real story of the game may come down to how Appalachian plans to attack Lafayette offensively. The Cajuns have one of the worst pass defenses in the conference, giving up 284 yards in the air a game. Monroe quarterback Pete Thomas had a field day with the Cajun secondary. Thomas threw for 472 yards and two touchdowns, completing 70% of his passes. Conversely, the Cajuns shut down the Monroe running game. The Warhawks are not known for rushing the football, but -39 yards rushing for the game is a statement by Lafayette, who sports the Sun Belt’s top rushing defense at only 140 yards allowed per game.

There are several reasons Appalachian has been successful in the last four games. Taking care of the football has been paramount. Although losing a fumble in the end zone last weekend, the Mountaineers have done a good job of limiting those mistakes. Taylor Lamb has only thrown one interception in the last four games compared to five touchdown passes. The offensive line has protected him and the running game has given him clean pockets which have led to Lamb completing over 60% of his passes in three straight games.

Mentioning Marcus Cox every week may come across as being a little lazy, but he continues to do something special every weekend. His current tear in the last four games is astounding: 106 carries, 696 yards, 9 touchdowns. His forty carries last weekend was the third most ever by an Appalachian running back in a game. Cox eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the second time in his young career and will likely exceed his rushing total from his fantastic freshman season.

The difference between Arkansas State and Appalachian last week was the work that was done in the trenches by the Mountaineers on both sides of the ball. Appalachian cleared the way for Marcus Cox on offense and was able to contain the shifty Fredi Knighten while on defense. Knighten was constantly throwing the ball off his back foot and never really was able to look comfortable until late in the fourth quarter. Pushing around Lafayette will not be as easy. The Cajuns are a much bigger team on both sides of the line. Their offensive line is well experienced and they are big, averaging 287 pounds. Equally as intimidating is their 3-4 defensive alignment. The defensive line is bigger than their offensive line, which is a rarity, and they can defend anything. The Cajuns have 26 sacks on the season, giving the Mountaineers their third straight challenge in a row from that perspective. Appalachian faced Monroe and Arkansas State when they led the conference in sacks, and only gave up one last week. Keeping Taylor Lamb upright will be huge for Appalachian. Look for the Mountaineers to get Lamb into a rhythm early, but without completely ignoring the running game. It is good strategy to chase the good matchup but without completely abandoning what you do well as a team. Appalachian will have to keep McGuire and Harris in check as much as possible. It will be difficult to shut one of them down, but the main objective to eliminate the big runs. Appalachian will be without nose tackle Tyson Fernandez, and the job is up to the entire defensive line make up for his loss. How the Mountaineers adjust to his absence will be the difference in this game.

The First Pick:

Mountaineers 28

Cayenne 37

Appalachian Basketball @ Furman

Posted on by
Reply

Last time out, Appalachian fell hard in a huge loss at Ohio by a 73-47 count. You can count on one finger the number of Mountaineers that played well. Tommy Spagnola led the Mountaineers with 11 points and nine rebounds, narrowly missing the double-double in thirty-one minutes of action. Starting point guard Frank Eaves could not have played any worse. Eaves was 2-12 from the floor, including misfiring on all four of his three points attempts, while also leading the team with four turnovers compared to just two assists. Surprisingly, Tab Hamilton was ruled out of the game, and his playing time is doubt until his eligibility is straightened out due to playing too many games in a summer league.

Ohio was favored by ten points and covered the spread easily. We expected the Bobcats to cover and they did. Appalachian is 0-1 against the spread on the season and we are 1-0 with our picks.

Tonight, Appalachian faces Furman in Greenville, SC. I still do not understand why this game was scheduled, against a former SoCon opponent, nor do I understand why its being played in Greenville. The Paladins were drilled in their first game of the season, 75-40, by College of Charleston, but were without last years leading scorer in Stephen Croone who sat out due to a concussion.

This could be an ugly game tonight. Neither team was able to shoot the ball very well in their season opener. The Mountaineers slashed 33/25/44 (field goals/three pointers/free throws) while Furman countered with a 24/17/51. For those counting, thats not good. Furman has always played Appalachian tough in auditorium that is Timmons Arena. The Paladins are 2.5 point favorite, which is basically home court. However, I believe this number favors the Mountaineers slightly. I like the line better at three points, but I’ll take App at +2.5.

Appalachian Basketball @ Ohio

Posted on by
Reply

Jim Fox will lead Appalachian basketball into a new era as they visit the Ohio Bobcats for their first ever game as a member of the Sun Belt Conference. The Mountaineers are returning several players of note, including Tommy Spagnola who finished strong last season after being inserted into the starting lineup halfway through the year. Spagnola joins fellow senior Tab Hamilton, who looks to remain in the starting lineup.

Ohio is favored by 12 points in this season opener and the Mountaineers have plenty of questions all over the court. Considering their narrow exhibition win over Lees-McRae, I would imagine that Ohio, who is a borderline NCAA team will probably cover this spread without a problem. If the Mountaineers keep it within ten points, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Appalachian Football @ Arkansas State

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 10

Appalachian State (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 15th, 3:00pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Centennial Bank Stadium

Surface: GEO Surfaces FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,406

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 55.34

Ark State: 70.37

Home: 3.15

Arkansas State is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 18 points

Sportsbook: Arkansas St -14.5, O/U 65

Series: first meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Stop for few seconds, close your eyes, and remember that feeling you had after Appalachian defeated Monroe last weekend. It was not just a feeling of relief, but of validation. The Mountaineers previous wins over Troy and Georgia State were not flukes over the Sun Belts lesser talented teams. It was a building block towards the future. Now, Monroe isn’t the best in the conference, but that win garnered some attention. Prior to the game, Monroe was the best defense in the conference. Monroe is a Louisiana school, which is the home state to the conference headquarters in New Orleans. But, before you get any respect in the Sun Belt, you must defeat the two longer tenured schools in Arkansas State and Lafayette. Georgia State and South Alabama also played Ark St and Lafayette in consecutive weekends this season, and both came away with two losses each. The next two weekends are a tall task for the Mountaineers, but I would not want it any other way. The Mountaineers want to be the best in the conference, and in order to do so, you got to beat the best. In its first year of transition, Appalachian will have the chance to really see how they measure up with the Sun Belt powers. Even better, the Mountaineers get to test themselves on the road in a stadiums with good atmospheres, despite lacking a couple thousand camouflaged hunters.

Arkansas State is the three-time defending Sun Belt champion and have gone to three straight Godaddy.com Bowls , winning the last two. Somehow, the Red Wolves have accomplished all of this with three different head coaches in the last three seasons. Current head coach Blake Anderson is the fourth head coach in as many years. Hugh Freeze was the head coach in 2011 before being hired by Ole Miss. Gus Malzahn was head coach in 2012 after spending the prior three years at Auburn as offensive coordinator. After Gene Chizik was fired at Auburn, Malzahn went back to the plains and is now the head coach for Auburn. Texas offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin was hired for the 2013 season, where he also stayed for one year before heading west to his alma matar, Boise State, where he had played quarterback and spent ten years as an assistant. Blake Anderson is a first time head coach at Arkansas State and has spent time on the staffs at North Carolina, Southern Miss, and Middle Tennessee in the last decade.

Anderson has been known as an offensive guru at every stop he has made throughout his coaching career and the same holds true for Arkansas State in 2014. The Red Wolves are second in the conference in total offense and third in scoring. Quarterback Fredi Knighten leads the conference in total yardage with over 290 yards per game. Knighten is second in the conference in rushing yards by a quarterback, only trailing Georgia Southern’s Kevin Ellison. Most of his rushing yards come on zone reads and sweeps. He is a very excitable player, as he nearly sprints back to the offensive backfield after each run. He is very jittery in the pocket, quickly bouncing on his toes as he looks through his reads.

Michael Gordon is the leading running back for Arkansas State behind Knighten, who is responsible for 36% of the Red Wolves carries. Gordon only has 100 carries on the season, but is also very active in the passing game. Arkansas State will usually spread out the defense with four wideouts in the formation, leaving Gordon in the backfield beside Knighten. Gordon will shift from one side of the quarterback to the other in the shotgun formation. More often than not, Gordon will run the opposite side of the formation for which he is lined up and rarely will he take the ball between the tackles. That attack had allowed Gordon to average 7.6 yards per carry.

The Red Wolves pummeled South Alabama last week 45-10, but it was not the same Jaguar team the Mountaineers saw in Boone over a month ago. South Alabama started junior Matt Floyd, who was making his first career start. Floyd threw for less than 100 yards, was sacked three times and intercepted twice. This will make the second straight weekend, that Appalachian’s opponent saw a first time quarterback starter in their previous game. If you remember, Monroe faced Texas A&M’s Kyle Allen two weeks ago. Much like Monroe, Arkansas State’s defense lives off making big plays. Appalachian committed one turnover last weekend, and it led to quick seven points for the Warhawks. South Alabama committed four turnovers last weekend, and it seemed Arkansas State capitalized on all of them. The Red Wolves defense flys around and forces the action toward the sidelines. They hit hard and get after the quarterback. Occasionally, when the opposing offense is in a third and long situation, Arkansas State will line up in a stack formation with their lineman and linebackers in a look that is meant to confuse. That has helped them to lead the conference in opponents third down conversions. Appalachian did a good job last weekend protecting Taylor Lamb and gave up zero sacks to the team that led the league in sacks. This week, Arkansas State now leads the conference in sacks.

Monroe and Appalachian played a classic last weekend. Neither running game could really get going, as both teams held each other to under three yards per carry. The difference was in the quarterback play. Monroe’s Pete Thomas continued his decline, completing under 50% of his passes for only six yards per attempt. Thomas was sacked six times by the Mountaineer defense, a number not seen in several years. Appalachian’s Lamb was much more efficient despite a vaselined interception in the first quarter. Lamb connected on 71% of his passes, including a dime he dropped for Shaedon Meadors late in the second quarter that was caught with one hand by the freshman wide receiver. For the first time this season, a Mountaineer kicker was the difference in the closing moments of the game, as Bentlee Critcher nailed a 39-yard field goal for the game winning points.

Although Marcus Cox was held in check on the ground for the most part, he was effective in the passing game. Cox caught five passes for 56 yards. Coming into the game, Cox had only managed nine receptions for 71 yards. Cox added another touchdown to give thirteen on the season and eight touchdowns in his last four games. He is now up to 913 rushing yards on the season

In the last three games, the weather forecast has been a concern leading into the weekend. Obviously, the Georgia State game will be unforgettable for the snow that fell throughout the day, Last weekend started cool, but for a local, it turned out to be a pretty nice day with the kickoff temperature being 52 degrees and sunny, but quickly dipped into the 40’s as the game wore one. A Monroe player was quoted as saying that is was cold and trying to stay warm might have gotten to them. This is something I thought might be an issue in the South Alabama game, but it was not to be. This weekend, the Mountaineers will take some early winter weather to Jonesboro as the high temperatures are not expected to reach forty degrees.

These two teams are mirror images on paper offensively. Both teams are extremely balanced. Arkansas State has passed for almost 200 more yards than they have run for while, Appalachian has rushed for a little more than 200 yards than they have passed. Exactly 18 yards of total offense separate the second ranked (Ark St) and third ranked (App St) offenses in the Sun Belt. Both teams have scored exactly 39 touchdowns. The Mountaineers have totaled five more points than the Redwolves. The difference is the defenses. Although Appalachian has held teams to 11 fewer yards per game over the course of the season, Arkansas State holds the points allowed edge by four points. The Red Wolves are undefeated at home, a place where they have only surrendered 48 points all season. The Red Wolves offense is also on a roll in the past four weeks, scoring over 45 points per game over Sun Belt opponents, compared to just 25 points per game in the first five contests of the season. The key for Appalachian will be to keep the game close in first quarter. It will be important to take the crowd out of the game with some long drives and to avoid a momentum changing turnover at all costs. Once Arkansas State smells blood on defense, they pounce and do not let you up. Their linebackers are huge and make it really difficult around the line of scrimmage. Thats where the difference will be made in this game. If Appalachian allows the Red Wolves to dictate the middle of the field, and can neutralize the Mountaineer rushing attack, it could be a long day. This will be the biggest test for this young Mountaineer offense. I could see a game similar to the Lafayette-Ark St game from a few weeks ago. Lots of scoring, but a couple plays will decide how this one ends.

The First Pick:

Mountaineers 31

More Indians 44

Louisiana-Monroe @ Appalachian Football

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 8

Louisiana-Monroe (3-5, 2-2, Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (3-5, 2-2 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 8th, 3:30pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 56.99

Monroe: 55.81

Home: 3.17

App State is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 4.5 points

Sportsbook: App State -3.5, O/U 54

Series: first meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

It has been some time since Mountaineer fans have experienced a winning streak. Nearly two years to be exact. Appalachian has a chance to extend its winning streak when it welcomes Louisiana-Monroe to The Rock for Black Saturday, which is always reserved for the best or toughest opponent on the schedule. Monroe was an easy choice for Black Saturday as its history in the Sun Belt dates back to 2001 and includes a Sun Belt Championship in 2005. Monroe played in their first bowl game in 2012 when they lost to Ohio in the Independence Bowl. The Warhawks left the division formerly known as I-AA in 1993 after winning a national championship over Marshall in 1987. This is the twenty-first season for Monroe in Division I and they have only generated one winning season, in 2012. Monroe went 6-6 three times in that same period of time. Getting to 6-6 this season would be a tall task, not only for Monroe, but also for Appalachian. Both teams certainly have their sites set on at least breaking even in 2014. Monroe would have to win on the road for the first time this season. Appalachian would most likely need to win both home games and steal one at Lafayette or Arkansas State. Chances are slim for either team to pull it off, but the race to six wins is a major accomplishment in the Sun Belt. Even if a 6-6 record is not rewarded with a bowl berth, just being able to tell recruits that you were bowl-eligible is a big deal. Before either team gets to six wins, one team has to get their fourth win this weekend, while the other will get that sixth loss. Monroe has dropped four straight games while the Mountaineers are feeling confident and hope to ride the momentum.

As previously noted, Monroe has risen through the ranks of college football like most Sun Belt schools. Similarly to Appalachian, Monroe had some success in the NCAA playoffs. The Warhawks made the playoffs four times from 1987-1993, with a 5-3 overall playoff record. That success vaulted the school into Division I where they were an independent, without a conference affiliation, for seven seasons before landing in the Sun Belt.

Fast forward to 2012, the year the Warhawks went 8-5 and made the headlines for their big win over #8 Arkansas on the opening weekend of the season. Monroe won that game in overtime before heading to Auburn the following week and losing in overtime. After Auburn, Monroe battled Baylor in a shooutout before falling by five points at home. Monroe then won five straight games, including three over Sun Belt opponents who are no longer in the conference. Monroe then split their final four games, losing to the Sun Belt stalwarts Lafayette and Arkansas State before defeating North Texas and Florida International. Monroe went 6-2 in conference play that year. Five of those six wins were over teams who have left the Sun Belt. Those two losses were in back to back weeks, just like Appalachian’s schedule stacks up after this weekend.

Much has been made about Monroe’s tough loss last weekend at Texas A&M, but I am not buying it. The Aggies were without sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill after a team suspension. Hill had over 2600 yards and 23 touchdown passes in his first eight games. Texas A&M had to start Kyle Allen who was seeing his first action as a college quarterback after being one of the most heralded recruits in 2013. Allen managed 106 passing yards on 13/28 passing and was responsible for two turnovers. Monroe’s game plan was to keep the ball away from the Aggies. They were successful, controlling the clock for close to 34 minutes despite only rushing for 78 yards.

Warhawk quarterback Pete Thomas ran the ball more times against A&M than he did in any game this season, although his nineteen carries only covered forty-four yards. Thomas also threw the ball more times than he had all season with forty-seven attempts. He is a big quarterback at 6’5 and 235 pounds and came to Monroe via NC State and Colorado State. Thomas started all twenty one games as a freshman and sophomore at Colorado State before being sidelined with an injury for the remainder of the 2011 season. He sat out the 2012 season and redshirted before heading to Raleigh where he appeared in nine games and made six starts. Thomas then took advantage of the NCAA rule allowing graduate students to transfer and play their fourth year of football at another school without having to sit out, a move made popular by Greg Paulus of Syracuse football via Duke Basketball and Russell Wilson currently of the Seattle Seahawks, who transferred to Wisconsin after leaving NC State. Wherever Thomas has played collegiately, he has been an accurate quarterback and has had decent passing yards, but his touchdown numbers are low. In his career, he has 7,744 yards and holds a 29/35 touchdown to interception ratio. His yards per pass, completion percentage and QB efficiency rating are all at career lows in this season.

The Monroe rushing attack is nearly not worthy of a mention. On the season, the Warhawks have rushed for 729 yards. In comparison, Appalachian has dropped back to back four hundred yard rushing games in its last two contests. Leading rusher Centarius Donald is a big back at 6’1 and 223 pounds but is a complete plodder after three knee surgeries. Donald’s 469 rushing yards have come primarily at home. Donald has only thirty carries on the road this season for 113 yards, at 3.8 yards per carry. As a team, the Warhawks average only 2.7 yards per carry and 91 rushing yards per game on the season. Against Troy on September 27th at home, Monroe managed just 29 rushing yards.

Appalachian had every answer last Saturday against Georgia State. The physical plant dominated the turf in convincing fashion, moving about four inches of heavy snow prior to kickoff, which paved the way for Marcus Cox. The sophomore from Dacula, Ga ran for a career high 250 yards and three touchdowns. Ricky Fergerson added another 130 yards on the ground which was aided by an 84 yard run in the third quarter. Appalachian converted three turnovers into twenty-one points en route to their second shutout of the season. Only Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana State, Stanford and yes, Appalachian State have two shutouts in FBS football this season.

So, after three games with big offensive numbers, Appalachian gets the Sun Belt’s top defense, in terms of yards allowed. But Monroe has yet to face three of the top five rushing offenses and total offenses in the Sun Belt this season. Monroe has played Texas State, who ran for 229 yards on the Warhawks and Arkansas State who rushed for 288 yards, but Monroe has games against Appalachian, Lafayette and Georgia Southern looming before the end of the season. My guess is Monroe will not be at the top of the conference in defense in four weeks. The Monroe secondary is also suspect over the top. Troy completed pass after pass where the Trojan receivers simply beat the defenders deep. The issue when playing the awkward 3-3-5 defensive formation of Monroe is protecting the quarterback. If Appalachian can keep Taylor Lamb’s pass attempts around twenty, the Mountaineers will be looking good. I can see a couple deep shots to Malachi Jones or Shaedon Meadors if the line can protect. Monroe’s offense is very similar to Troy. They like getting the ball in their receivers hands and allow them to make plays in the open field. Monroe will force you to make one-on-one tackles in space. Even though Pete Thomas runs a bit, he is somewhat of a statue if his first read is covered. The Mountaineer secondary will be tested if Appalachian cannot get some pressure on the quarterback. The spread is just about perfect for this game. For Monroe, it is a good number considering their solid kicking game and strong defense. But if the Warhawks want to win they have to get to twenty points. They are 1-5 scoring under twenty points and 2-0 scoring more than 20 points. They are gonna need at least 24 to beat the Mountaineers.

The First Pick:

Mountaineers 27

Indians 23