Monthly Archives: October 2015

Troy @ Appalachian Football

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Here we go with week 8
Troy (2-5, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (6-1, 3-0 Sun Belt)
Saturday October 31st, 3:30 PM EST
TV/Video: ESPN3
Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 100.7 Bristol
Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf
Capacity: 23,150
Jeff Sagarin Ratings:
App State: 73.49
Troy: 55.71
Home: 2.71
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 20.5 points (rounded)
Sportsbook: App State -24
Series: Series tied 2-2
Last Meeting: App State 53, Troy 14; October 18, 2014 (Troy, AL)
Weather: Sunshine early with building clouds, High: Upper 50’s, Lows: Upper 30’s, South winds 5-10mph

It was more than just a night to remember. It was a night that put things back in their proper order. A little smack talk never hurt anyone leading up to last Thursday night, as long your team can back it up. The Mountaineers backed it up and then some, by rolling their nemesis into the ground with a 31-13 drubbing that looked a lot worse. But in the end, those Eagles will never run out of excuses. They have never lost a game; it is always someone else’s fault for their poor play. Hopefully for Georgia Southern, all that complaining will come to an end. Who are we to kid? That’ll never happen. In the meantime, Appalachian looks to continue their quest for a ring in 2015, and the Troy Trojans are the next team in the way. Just a little over a year ago, the turnaround started with a trip to Troy. Appalachian was an underdog, coming off what could be argued as the worst loss in recent memory. Suddenly, on that Saturday afternoon 375 days ago, the switch was flipped. Something happened, and the Mountaineers have not looked back since. In the last thirteen games, the Mountaineers have shut down their opponents, surrendering just 15.6 points per game, including three shutouts. The brevity of such dominance is rare in this modern football game, where scores can resemble the college basketball game more often. That consistency has spanned over a year, not just a spurt of games. This what we are all accustomed to. The plan has worked and the swagger and spirit has returned to the top of the mountain in a scary way.
As much as last year was a turning point for Appalachian, it was in a very different way for Troy. Their beloved coach, Larry Blakeney, who spent 23 years manning the sidelines was in his final year. Blakeney won eight conference titles and two bowl games while transitioning Troy out of Division II, through I-AA and eventually to the FBS ranks. Enter Neal Brown, the second youngest coach in all of FBS football for his first head coaching job of his career. Brown was a former offensive coordinator at Troy before moving on to the same role at Texas Tech & Kentucky. Brown is finding his way as a head coach, much like Scott Satterfield did a couple seasons ago. It is a difficult balancing act to play upperclassmen when there are younger guys who you like for your system. Brown is doing just that right now. Slowly, Troy will be a force once again in the Sun Belt.
The Trojans have been looking for balance throughout the 2015 season, and it all came together last weekend at New Mexico State. You might say, well, a lot of teams have found balance against New Mexico State. That is correct, they have, but occasionally, a team needs a confidence booster to realize what it is that they can achieve. The Troy defense is a vastly improved bunch from 2014. The Trojans have decreased opponents scoring by close to ten points in just one season. They are allowing 76 fewer yards per game and have slowed the ground game of their opponents by 1.5 yards per carry. One last boring statistic: In 2014, Troy gave up 2.9 rushing touchdowns a game, and in 2015, 1.5 per game.
Troy’s offense is led by its three-headed monster in Brandon Silvers, Brandon Burks & Teddy Ruben. Silvers had his best game of the season last weekend, throwing for 248 yards and five touchdowns in the thumping of New Mexico State. Coming into the game, Silvers had eclipsed the 200 yard mark in only one other game, in the Trojans other win of the season against Charleston Southern. Seven of his nine touchdowns on the season came in the two wins, while Silvers has two touchdown passes and three interceptions in four losses in which he appeared. Silvers was injured in the loss at Mississippi State , suffering a high ankle sprain and a concussion. In his absence, Troy used two quarterbacks in the loss to Idaho, neither which were very effective. Dallas Tidwell threw for 168 yards and one touchdown on 50% passing while Dontreal Pruitt combined for 111 total yards (70 passing, 41 rushing) and threw two interceptions.

Brandon Burks is the senior running back who lives and dies off of his big play ability. His 621 yards on the season are good enough for 5th in the Sun Belt, while his 88.7 yards per game puts him at seventh. Burks has totaled 313 of his 621 yards on the longest carry in each of his respective games this season. Unbelievable right? Over half of his yards on seven carries. The Trojans depend on Burks to break a big one. Burks means almost as much to Troy as Matt Breida does for Georgia Southern. They need him to be fantastic. Last Thursday, the Mountaineers kept Breida in check, and thus kept the Eagles in check.

Teddy Ruben is an extremely versatile wide receiver He does a little bit of eveything for the Trojans. He is 5th in the Sun Belt in receiving yards and receptions per game, 5th in kick returns,  and 2nd in punt returns. In his last two games, Ruben has gone over  100 yards and snagged three touchdown passes. After only catching twelve passes in his first three games of the season, Ruben has hauled in twenty-one passes in the last four games. Similarly to Burks, most of Ruben’s yards have come on the big play. Of his 468 yards, 221 have occured on his longest reception in each game this season.

One would have never guessed Appalachian was facing the second best defense in the conference in Georgia Southern last week. If anything, the offense was its usual balanced self. Taylor Lamb patiently surveyed the field for open receivers and was completely satisfied by throwing the ball away instead of forcing it into coverage. The Mountaineers leaned on one receiver for really the first time all season. Simms McElfresh caught six passes for 66 yards, the most of any Mountaineer receiver in a game this year.  Marcus Cox took advantage of his 21 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps the bigger story was Jalin Moore, who received a carry high in carries with eleven in the game which he turned into 53 yards. It was the sixth time this season that the Mountaineers ran the ball 40 times or more in a game as a team.
It is easy to understand that Troy is excited about what they were able to accomplish against an 0-7 team last weekend, getting their first win against an FBS opponent this season. So much that one of their players spouted off to the media that they are about to dominate their next game. Makes one wonder if said player even checked the schedule. It’s fun to be excited, because you can ignore facts. Realistically, this game is a complete mismatch. Troy, with their third ranked Sun Belt defense believes they will keep Appalachian from scoring, something only Clemson has done this season. The best way for Troy to do that is to keep the Mountaineers off the field. That will be a chore in itself. The Trojans have given up 6 minutes of possesion to their opponents this season. Two minutes on the season, is a lot to give up, and six is enormous. Six minutes of a game is ten percent, so that is a pretty big deal. Part of the reasoning behind that is their lack of a run game. Last week, Appalachian took away the running game of Georgia Southern, by cutting their season rushing average in half, and then some. Troy is ninth in the conference at 123 rushing yards per game, ahead of Georgia State and Monroe. The longest carry the Mountaineers have given up all season is 30 yards. It will be tough for Troy to break a long run against this stout Mountaineer defense. Appalachian will force Troy into being one dimensional on offense and make them pass against the best secondary in the conference. That’s not a good idea against Latrell Gibbs and company. The Mountaineers win this one going away.

 

The First Pick:
T-Roy                 14
Mountaineers   38

Georgia Southern @ Appalachian Footballl

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Here we go with week 7

Georgia Southern (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (5-1, 2-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday October 22nd, 7:30 PM EST

TV/Video: ESPNU & ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 100.7 Bristol
Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf 

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings:

App State: 71.23

GS: 70.32

Home: 2.66

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -6.5

Series: App State leads 16-13-1

Last Meeting: Georgia Southern 34 App State 14; September 25, 2014 (Statesboro, GA)

Weather: Mostly sunny and clear Mid 60’s during tailgate and Mid 50’s at end of game

        
           Somehow, we have all made it to Wednesday.  But this hump day is unlike any other, its also our “Friday”, or Gameday Eve. Whatever you generally refer to as the day before the game day, it has a different feel. One cannot simply go to work or the grocery store this week in Boone without small talk about what will take place under the lights on Thursday night. It’s more than just a football game this week. A national television audience has brought an increased media presence to the High Country for Appalachian to show to the world what makes it a special place. Mix in the the opponent, easily the most hated of them all, and Thursday night has all the makings to be a night to remember. Luckily, there is something  to play for this season. Only two years removed from the Southern Conference, Appalachian and Georgia Southern have quickly vaulted to the top of the Sun Belt. As much as things change, they seem to stay the same. These two rivals have made the transition look incredibly easy. They are a combined 19-2 against Sun Belt opponents in their short history in the league. As it was the premier battle in the FCS for over two decades, it remains that way in the Sun Belt. In 2014, the conference rolled out the red carpet for App and Southern, pitting them against one another in their first Sun Belt game in their schools history. This season, the game is the main event on the Sun Belt calendar as perennial Sun Belt stalwarts Arkansas State and Louisiana were the warmup game on Tuesday. The winner gets a leg up in their conference title race and perhaps preferential treatment when bowl selections are made in about six weeks. Lastly, the winner gets to say to the loser, “We beat you” for the next calendar year.

            Southern’s option offense is basically the same style we have seen for years, with one major difference. Predominantly, the quarterback will take the snap from the shotgun or pistol compared to under center. Taking the snap from under center can be more difficult to defend as the quarterback can get lost behind the offensive line and the dive play can be very successful if the correct blocks are made. The shot gun formation gives an athletic backfield like Southern’s a better view of the outside running lanes, which is where Matt Bredia is really is difficult to defend. For Appalachian, getting to the outside will be paramount in containing the option. The Mountaineers must force the Eagle backs to think about where they are going when they get outside the hash marks. More thinking means less running and more time for the defense to pursue the ball.
     

     Offensively, both Georgia Southern and Appalachian are hitting their stride at the midway point in the season. Instead of looking ahead to this Thursday, Southern put up season highs in points and total offensive yards in their win over New Mexico State, while Appalachian also put up a season high in points, and eclipsed 650 total yards for the second time this season. The Mountaineers 654 yards against Monroe fell just short of the 677 yards they gained against Howard in the season opener. 
  

        By now, we all know the Eagles names. We know about Kevin Ellison and his ability as a runner and passer. Last year he eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark in both categories and became the 6th player in Southern history to pass and run for 2,000 yards in a career with his numbers against New Mexico State. Ellison was forced to sit out two games earlier this season, suffering from academic issue  in the past school year. He has started all four games since his return and is averaging a very balanced 157 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Favian Upshaw is rotating in every third series to give defenses a different look. Upshaw is considered by some to be the better passer, but his four interceptions in twenty-five total pass attempts tells a different story. 
      

     Another Eagle name Mountaineer fans are all to familiar with is Matt Breida, the lightning fast running back. Breida is unequivocably the bread and butter for Southern. When he is on, Georgia Southern wins. It’s that simple. Breida can change direction at any time, but his most important assett is his quickness. He can get to a hole in the defense and make everyone on the field chase him. It’s not often you see a running back average 10.4 yards a carry this late in the season. His 148 yards per game rushing not only leads the Sun Belt, but is also good enough for third nationally. L.A. Ramsby is the third leading rusher for the Eagles. Ramsby is a power back that is difficult to take down. He provides a perfect compliment to Breida. Ramsby’s six touchdowns are second only to Breida’s eleven scores. 

           Appalachian has stayed true to their word all season long as far offensive strategy goes, with intentions to run the ball to get favorable matchups in the secondary, and win those 1-on-1 situations. It’s no secret, yet hardly anyone has been able to hold them down long. Monroe had a quick start last weekend, and surely there were many Mountaineer fans sweating in the first half. Appalachian was patient, waiting for their defense to make big plays and for Taylor Lamb to find open receivers deep in the Wahawk secondary. Lamb was his brilliant self, throwing for 261 yards on only fifteen attempts, while never being sacked. Marcus Cox ran for  a somewhat quiet 122 yards and two touchdowns. Terrance Upshaw looked like he was 100% after battling an injury over the last couple weeks,  running for 76 yards on only nine carries.            

           Statistical comparisons can make for a lot of great conversation leading up to the game, but the real fun part about the game of football is seeing how teams react when things do not go their way. At some point in the game on Thursday, one team is going to be playing from behind. Both teams have not done a whole lot of playing from behind this season. Take away their games against Power 5 opponents, its pretty foreign. Georgia Southern trailed Western Michigan for four minutes and nineteen seconds in the first quarter of their second game of the season. That’s it. They have held the lead ever since. Idaho tied the Eagles for 16 seconds, and then Matt Breida went 83 yards for a touchdown on the next drive. Appalachian trailed for a total of seven minutes and twenty-nine seconds against Monroe last weekend and calmy took a ten point lead before halftime. That is all the Mountaineers have trailed this season, once again, outside of Clemson. The Mountaineers hold a significant defensive advantage in this matchup. This team does not like giving up points. Period. The Eagles, on the other hand, have given up some points in several of their games. On the season, Southern has surrendered 25 points per contest. Although neither Appalachian or Georgia Southern have played really tough schedules to date this season, Appalachian has the upper hand. Georgia Southern could be without several key defensive starters due to injuries and targeting punishments. Two will serve the suspensions in the first half while another did not return last week after his injury. The first half will be extremely critical in this game. Appalachian will need to take advantage of those Southern losses and roll to a lead at halftime. With the way the Mountaineers rotate players  on both sides of the ball, I fully expect the Apps to be the fresher team in the second half and thwart any chance the Eagles have of mounting a comeback. 
          

        
The First Pick:

More Beaks 24

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Louisiana-Monroe

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Here we go with Week 6

Appalachian State (4-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-4, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Saturday October 17th, 7 PM EST
TV/Video: ESPN3
Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 100.7 Bristol

JPS Field at Malone Stadium
Surface: FieldTurf 
Capacity: 30,427
Jeff Sagarin Ratings:

App State: 69.83

ULM: 55.84
Home: 2.76
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -11.5
Series: App State leads 1-0
Last Meeting: App State 31, ULM 29; November 8, 2014 (Boone, NC)
Weather: Mostly sunny and clear 77/51
        

          Business has suddenly picked up in college football. Behind us are the money games and out of conference matchups. From here on out, the games are all about  the business of winning a conference championship. No disrespect to Georgia State. We know that you are a considered a conference game, but it just doesn’t feel like it. At least not yet. What really feels like Sun Belt football is playing the Louisiana schools on the road. No disrespect to the Georgia Dome, it is a nice facility, but the Panthers are lost in there. The real work is now before Appalachian as they travel to a more hostile atmosphere, one  where Mountaineer fans will be more scarce than they have been at any point this season. The most difficult part of the week will be focusing on the present and not looking ahead. To this point in the season, Appalachian  has been able remain on task, taking care of every opponent, not named Clemson, with ease. Forget about whether or not this team has been tested. The test has been about making improvements from one game to the next while also getting valuable playing time for those whose names may be called on down the line. The Warhawks will provide the next test. A team that has played a tough schedule will be looking to turn the tide in front of their home crowd. Hopefully, the Mountaineers have done their homework. 

           Monroe faces an uphill battle most years in regards to how they arrange their schedule. Regularly, the Warhawks are forced to schedule multiple Power Five schools in the same season in order to be able to fund their programs. ULM is one of the smaller schools in Sun Belt, with enrollment below 9,000 and their athletic budget represents that. In the past they have played two and three of those schools in the same season. It does not help their record, but it does help the pocketbook. This season, ULM will collect checks from Alabama, Georgia and Hawai’i. Their lone win was FCS Nicholls State. 

          Since the last time Appalachian played ULM, the Warhawks have played Georgia Southern twice, losing both, and have beaten New Mexico State along with Nicholls State. Monroe and Appalachian seem to be heading in different directions, as Appalachian has now won ten of its last eleven games. Monroe appears to be a very similar team that Appalachian played last year, with an offense that has its moments, but sputters for the most part. The Warhawk defense still likes to play very physical, but has been on the field a tremendous amount of time this season and it has shown. Monroe is giving up 34 points a game and has let teams gash them on the ground to the tune 243 yards per game. 

          Monroe has been forced to start redshirt freshman Garrett Smith at quarterback who has had some struggles this season. A lot of the Monroe offense is based on short throws that are easy to help Monroe run the ball. The idea is to get Smith in rhythm and build his confidence. Smith has thrown all but eleven passes this year for the Warhawks, who as a team has only been able to muster 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Thats a miniscule number at any level of football. Smith is the least effeicient quarterback in the Sun Belt of those who are qualified. His nine touchdowns passes are good enough for fourth in the Sun Belt, but his seven interceptions are second to only South Alabama’s Cody Clements who has played an extra game. 

           Ajalen Holley is who the Warhawks will lean on in the passing game. The junior is second in the conference in several receiving categories including receptions (39), yards (480). Holley has stepped in nicely for injured wide out Rashon Ceasar, who was a favorite to be a first team all conference selection. Ceaser had 26 catches for 272 yards in three games before being lost for the season to injury. Holley will be the target of a lot of Smith’s passses. Outside of Ceaser and Holley, no other Warhawk pass catcher has eclipsed 100 yards on the season. The ULM running game isnt much to speak of. Kaylon Watson leads the team with 155 yards on the season on only 39 carries. Garrett Smith has more official carries with 55, but his sacks count toward his rushing total, which account for a lot of lost yardage. Smith has 136 yards on the season, and likes to get those on mostly quarterback draws with empty backfields and five wide receiver sets. 
       

          Mountaineer fans should not have been surprised to see Georgia State sell out to stop the run last weekend. After Marcus Cox rumbled for 250 yards and three touchdowns last season against Panthers, they had only one hope to stay close, which was stacking the box and forcing Tayloor Lamb to throw. Considering Lamb’s perceived struggles, more due to a rough patch of weather, that was not a bad gamble on the part of Georgia State. But Lamb made the Panthers pay with a 45 yard completion on the first drive, a 29 yard touchdown pass on the second drive, and another 49 yard completion on the third drive. All of those big plays set up points and a quick 17-0 lead that Appalachian never relinquished. Instead of Nick Arbuckle being considered the better passer, it was Lamb who lit up the dome for 314 yards and  three touchdown passes to three different receivers. Lamb also added 53 yards on the ground, on four carries, inlcuding a 41 yard scamper in the second quarter that got the Apps out of the shadow of their own goal line. 
           

          As has been the story all season long, the Mountaineer defense put on another show against Georgia State. The defensive backfield did a great mixing coverages and forcing Arbuckle to think twice before throwing. Arbcukle was sacked twice and only managed a pedestrian 166 yards in the air while the App front seven held the Panthers to only 59 rushing yards on the game. It was the third time this season the Apps have held an opponent to less than 60 yards on the ground. The Mountaineers lead the Sun Belt in total defense by almost a 100 yards and have only allowed 11.4 points per game, a category which they lead by nearly two full touchdowns. The list goes on, but the picture has been well painted. This defense is not a beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule. This is a dominant defense. Enter Monroe and an offense that has lacked consistency and a young quarterback who leans heavily on one receiver. This is potential disaster waiting to happen for the Warhawks this weekend. Monroe’s chance to win this weekend will be to do what Georgia State did. Try and stop the run and hope that they can catch Taylor Lamb on a bad day. Betting against the most efficient quarterback in the league might not be wise, but Monroe is going to have to take away something from Appalachian. The start of this game will be very important. Appalachian has outscored oppponets 45-3 in the first quarter this season while the Warhawks have been outscored 41-10. If those trends continue look for the Mountaineers to make easy work of ULM for their second conference win. 

          
        

The First Pick:

Gold Beaks 10

Mountaineers 35

Appalachian Football @ Georgia State

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Here we go with Week 5

Appalachian State (3-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (1-3, 1-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday October 10th, 3:30 PM

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 100.7 Bristol

Georgia Dome

Surface: FieldTurf  Classic HD

Capacity: 28,155 

Jeff Sagarin Ratings:
App State: 67.50
Georgia State: 44.02

Home: 2.71

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 21 points (rounded)
Sportsbook: App State -16

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last Meeting: App State 44, Georgia State 0; November 1, 2014 (Boone, NC)

Weather: For tailgating purposes, Good chance of a passing thunderstorm 71/58

          Try as some may, downplaying weather conditions in a football game isn’t the wisest decision. Doing so for a football game played in Boone, is even more foolish. Most of you have spent a significant amount of time the High Country and know that any given day can possibly be the most beautiful or miserable of settings. The Mountaineers have likely had their share of rain for a football season, and luckily, this week they get a reprieve in the form of the Georgia Dome. As much as elements in Boone can be advantageous for the home team, the same can be said for Georgia State and their indoor borrowed playground. Appalachian could not have asked for better conditions last season in their throttling of the Panthers. The somewhat unseasonable blizzard like conditions rendered the Panthers pass happy offense useless while Appalachian ran it down the throats of the visitors defense. Georgia State will look for revenge as their home turf provides a perfect venue for their offensive attack. Indoors, there are no elements to stymie a football and its path from the quarterback to a receiver. The wind doesn’t blow, the sun doesn’t get in the eyes of a receiver, and climate is controlled to a point of perfection. Forget everything that happened last year in Boone. That game was the exception and not the rule to how this Sun Belt rivalry, the closest geographically speaking, will play out. 

          It was expected that Georgia State would be vastly improved this season. Instead of getting behind early with lopsided losses, the Panthers had a good chance to get some wins against a few manageable opponents. On the opening weekend of the college football season, Georgia State played UNC-Charlotte on a Friday afternoon. In a game that the Panthers could not afford to lose, they did, all while embarrassing the conference and giving the 49ers their first FBS win, if you want to call it that. Georgia State could only muster twenty points despite turning their opponent over five times. The Panthers did win at New Mexico State the following week, earning their first Sun Belt victory, before regressing in their last two games, allowing a combined 102 points to Oregon and FCS Liberty. 

         So what can be made of this 1-3 Panther team? A team that arguably was thinking about 3-1 at this point, has not made progress under Trent Miles. Remarkably, Miles is still employed as a football coach at the Division I level. His two wins in 2+ seasons in Atlanta is a disgrace. In seven full seasons as a coach, his teams have finished with 1 win or less on four occasions. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, Miles and his Panthers will likely be heavy underdogs in the remainder of their games. It will be tough for an athletic director to believe that staying the course is what is best for their program. 

           For all of the flaws that Georgia State has as a program, the bright spot is quaterback Nick Arbuckle. The senior leads the Sun Belt in just about every meaningful quarterback category. Arbuckle’s 345.8 passing yards per game is also good enough to be 7th nationally. He is already thrown ten touchdown passes on the season and is on pace to throw thirty touchdowns for well over 4,000 yards. For all his chart topping numbers, Arbuckle isn’t perfect. Arbuckle has been very prone to throw interceptions throughout his career. Arbuckle threw seventeen intercpetions last year, or one every 25 attempts. This season he is only on pace for 15 interceptions and has only thrown a pick on every 30 pass attempts. Those interceptions don’t come in bunches, it just isn’t a part of running an offense that throws a lot. On top of throwing at least one interception in each game this season, that streak carries over into the last five games of the 2014 season. In his last nine games, Arbuckle has thrown fourteen picks. 

           Georgia State will throw the ball to pratically anyone in their offense. Thirteen different players have caught a pass this season, but the main share of targets goes the direction of three receivers. Penny Hart is their leading receiver as a freshman and is getting close to 100 yards receiving per game, Hart leads the team in catches, yards and touchdowns. Robert Davis is also active with twenty receptions  while averaging close to 75 yards a game receiving. Arbuckle’s favorite target in 2014 was Donovan Harden, who just saw his first action of the season last week in the loss to Liberty. Harden pulled in 5 receptions for 179 yards, which included a 76-yard touchdown reception. 

          For Appalachian, this season has been a see-saw affair offensively. Taylor Lamb has had two ugly games, against Clemson and last weekend to Wyoming. One game had one of the better defenses in the country while the other saw what is likely to be worst weather conditions for throwing the football. Regardless, this team is not built to have Lamb go out and win the game. If he is throwing thirty times a game, the Mountaineers are in trouble. This team is built to run and run they will. The Mountaineers trail only Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt, averaging 298 yards a game on the ground. Oddly enough, Appalachian has used the running game to get down the field, but has been passing more when they cross into opponents territory. The Mountaineers have five rushing touchdowns on the season. Only two of those belong to primary running backs Marcus Cox and Terrance Upshaw. 

          For now the third straight week, Appalachian will face a defense that really struggles, and that might be putting it nicely. The Panthers are giving up a very balanced 494 yards a game, 205 on the ground and 289 in the air. Liberty was deliberate in beating up the Georgia State defense and basically did whatever they wished to the Panthers. The Mountaineers are likely to continue doing what they do best. Like I mentioned last week, until someone can prove you wrong, keep doing it. Taylor Lamb will get his chances to get back in a groove which is important once you enter conference play. The important part of this game is the momentum. Appalachian cannot afford to let Georgia State stick around. The Panthers passing game can score from anywhere on the field without notice. They run the ball basically to give their receivers a quick rest and show no intentions to establish a run game. That would play right into the Appalachian defense that has been stingy against the run, outside of last weekend. Georgia State is going to have to play perfect and keep from turning the ball over to have a chance. The Panthers have have shown that an Arbuckle interception will happen and they have also lost six fumbles on the season as well. The Mountaineers will likely score more points, but I forsee a dominant defensive effort looming for Appalachian. I’ll take the Mountaineers to end up +2 in turnover category and cruise to a three possession win. 
          

        
The First Pick:
Stray Cats 24
Mountaineers 42