Monthly Archives: September 2016

Appalachian Football vs Georgia State

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Here we go with Week 5

Georgia State (0-3, 0-0 Sun Belt) @Appalachian State (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt) 

Saturday, Octber 1st, 2016 Noon EST

TV/Video: American Sports Network/ ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.19

Georgia State: 55.63

Home: 2.40

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 15 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -19

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last meeting: App State 37, Georgia State 3, October 10th, 2015, Atlanta

       That sweet taste of victory is comforting and normal. The first month of the season ended on hard earned high note. Appalachian flexed its Group of Five muscle for its fifth straight win over a peer school, and second over the MAC in disposing of Akron in a high scoring affair. The concerns of an unhealthy Mountaineer offense were cured by an Akron defense that hasn’t had an answer for any of their opponents this season. App rang up 587 total yards, making it the third straight game where the Zips had given up more than 550 yards in a game. No Marcus Cox? No problem. Jalin Moore steps in and totes the ball close to forty times for 257 yards. The App State train is rolling again and it doesn’t matter who is on board. The focus now turns to the Sun Belt schedule, where the sights are firmly set on a championship. Georgia State gets their first crack at Black Saturday, and another chance to erase the zero from the win column. Not only are the Panthers sporting an 0-2 record against the Mountaineers in their short rivalry, but Georgia State is looking for their first win of the 2016 season. The odds are long that it happens this weekend, and the sledding doesn’t get any easier for the remainder of the season for the Panthers, who have had a week off since their last game. 

          The Georgia State Panthers were really hoping their program was turning a corner at the end of 2015, as they won their final four games to become bowl eligible and represented the Sun Belt in the Cure Bowl. More unlikely, was that the Panthers knocked off Georgia Southern in the final weekend of the regular season to get their sixth win. However, since that four game winning streak, Georgia State has put together another four game streak, all losses, including their bowl loss. In those four games, the Panthers have only eclipsed twenty points on one occasion, in their opener this season against Ball State. In that game, GSU led off the game with an interception return for a touchdown, but couldn’t hold on despite taking the early lead. 

          A lot has been made about the loss the Panthers suffered to Wisconsin in Camp Randall. Blindly comparing the 44 point loss that Akron suffered to the Badgers, and the narrow six point margin that Wisconsin edged Georgia State by is doing the game of football a complete injustice. Between the two teams, there were only 21 possessions in the entire game. Wisconsin ran 43 plays in the first half, yet only could manage two field goals. The Panthers ran 27 plays, punted twice, fumbled, and missed a field goal. Wisconsin was running basic plays, and kept Georgia State close enough to keep it interesting late. Akron played a terrible game against Wisconsin, trailing 16-0 before their third possession and never had any momentum. 

          Part of the Georgia State struggles can be attributed to their quarterback play. It has not been easy replacing Nick Arbuckle in Atlanta, but Utah transfer Conner Manning is doing his best. His results this season have been a little bit of a mixed bag. Remove the lopsided loss at Air Force, and Manning is completing well over 65% of his passes. He has gone eleven straight quarters without throwing an interception and threw for 269 yards against Wisconsin. His arm isn’t overpowering, but he knows what he can and can’t do. In 2015, with Arbuckle, the Panthers averaged 8.8 yards per pass, but that number has fallen to 6.2 yards per attempt this season with Manning. 

          The injury to Marcus Cox suddenly became an afterthought after what Jalin Moore was able to do to Akron. The luxury of having a loaded stable of running backs certainly bodes well for Cox, who can likely take his time getting back to near full health. After this weekend, Appalachian will have eleven days before a road trip to Lafayette, and another ten days before hosting Idaho. After what Cox did to the Panthers in 2014 in Boone, GSU focused on Cox in 2015, limiting him to only 81 yards on nineteen carries. A two-headed attack against Georgia State on Saturday might be more successful with Moore and Darryton Evans carrying the load against a defense that is giving up 325 yards per game on the ground. Ball State had 58 yards rushing at half against Georgia State before the Fightin’ Cardinals buried the Panthers for 267 yards on the ground in the second half. 

          Perhaps we can give Georgia State a slight benefit of the doubt for all the chunks of yardage they allowed on the ground this season. Ball State figured it out, while Air Force and Wisconsin just ran their offense as they saw fit. Trent Miles has had two weeks to think about Appalachian and to figure out a way to get his Panthers to be better on defense. It gets to a point for Georgia State, and other Sun Belt programs for that matter, they might try anything to get a win over Appalachian. Miles is in his fourth season and has won just seven games in that span. It’s not all doom and gloom for Georgia State, as they have two decent receivers who will help Conner Manning, in Penny Hart and Robert Davis. Manning and Georgia State need to get more vertical in the passing game, as that is where Mountaineer opponents have found some success. Manning has only been sacked four times this season, but has been hurried quite often. Manning will stand in the pocket and take the pressure, but it exposes him to many hits, and his passes are way off target. Georgia State needs to find some type of running game this season. They have been abysmal with only 137 yards on the year, only averaging 2.2 yards per carry. Last week we mentioned Akron’s time of possession being second to last in the country. Well, guess who is dead last? You guessed it. Georgia State. Football is easy. If you can run and stop the run on defense, you have a good chance, but the Panthers can’t do either this season, and that won’t help them win a game in Boone. 

    
The First Pick

Southern’s Daddy  13

Mountaineers 37

Appalachian Football @ Akron

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Here we go with Week 4

Appalachian State (1-2) @ Akron (2-1)

Saturday, September 24th, 2016 3:30 EST

TV/Video: American SportsNetwork/ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

InfoCision Stadium

Surface: Prograss artificial turf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.56

Akron: 60.84

Home: 2.70

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -6

Series: first meeting

Last meeting: n/a

       After the one of tougher slates in recent memory to begin a season, Appalachian finishes off September with a road trip to Akron for its final non-conference game of the season. After this weekend, it’s all Fun Belt, all the time. The record the Mountaineers currently have is not a huge surprise, but the way the season has unfolded seems slightly unfulfilling. After a strong start at Tennessee, and a less than impressive win over Old Dominion, the Apps fell completely apart last weekend against Miami. The bright spots were few and far between and it didn’t appear the Mountaineers could do anything right. Throw in the injury to Marcus Cox, and the fans left Kidd Brewer with a really empty feeling last Saturday. It’s pretty obvious this team is in dire need of a win, just to get that feeling back before the games really start counting in conference play. To be honest, this game is about as close to being a must-win game as you can get. Another poor showing could create some panic among the natives, while a win would flip the script and provide some much needed momentum. Luckily, all the excitement of Volunteers and Hurricanes are behind us, and App can focus on good, old-fashioned boring football. 

         For the majority of their existence, Akron football has been a major afterthought in the state of Ohio. The school holds a losing record all time, although only 17 games below the .500 mark. The Zips not only won their first bowl game in school history in 2015, but also won their first postseason game in school history as well. Akron previously lost the 2005 Motor City Bowl, and lost an opening round game in the I-AA playoffs in 1985. The 8-5 record that Terry Bowden led Akron to in 2015 was their first winning season since the 2005 season. It was the 7th winning season in Akron’s history since they made the jump from I-AA to I-A in 1987. Akron has been a member of the MAC since 1992 while serving as an independent for their first five years in FBS. 

        Akron’s season thus far has been quite interesting. The Zips started slow before eventually dispatching VMI 47-24 in their opening game. Akron only led by two points entering the fourth quarter, before scoring three unanswered touchdowns. Wisconsin rolled up 586 yards of offense on the Zips the following week en route to a 54-10 win. The win over Marshall garnered a lot of attention due to the lopsided score. Marshall jumped out to a 21-7 lead after the first quarter, until Akron scored 34 points in the second quarter and cruised to a 65-38 win. Akron was the beneficiary of a short fields and Marshall turnovers in a quarter where the defense and special teams both scored.

       Akron lives by their quarterback play. Thomas Woodson is averaging 298 yards passing a game through the air, but suffers under pressure. Wisconsin sacked Woodson three times and intercepted him once in holding the junior to 108 yards. Woodson threw for 407 yards and 379 yards against VMI and Marshall respectively. All ten of his touchdown passes came in the two Akron wins. Woodson is a true pocket passer and looks more like a fullback at 6’1 and 233 pounds than he does a quarterback. His favorite targets are JoJo Natson and Jerome Lane, who have been on the receiving end of six touchdown passes. Natson is a small guy who can really run, while Lane provides a big target at 6’3 and 220 pounds. 

          The obvious major concern for the Mountaineers this week is the availability of Marcus Cox, who is the bread and butter of the Mountaineer offense. His backups have potential, but have been shaky in limited action this season. Jalin Moore improved as the game went on last week, but has been generally been too antsy. Behind Moore, is freshman Darryonton Evans  who has shown potential, but is still very raw. Josh Boyd returned to practice this week after a injury sustained in fall camp. It remains to be seen how close Boyd is to game shape and conditioning. Whichever back gets the load will need to keep the chains moving in a positive direction to relieve pressure off Taylor Lamb, who is off to a very slow start. 

          Akron provides a challenge to Appalachian’s defense that was certainly exposed once again by an up tempo offense. The Zips love the big play and have no intentions of using the clock to their advantage. Akron is currently 127 out of 128 teams in time of possession, but it has been working for them. To only posses the ball for 22 minutes on average and still manage to put up over 40 points a game is saying something. Conversely, Appalachian is one of the leaders in the country controlling the clock and will need to use that to their advantage, not only keeping Akron off the field, but scoring when they do have the ball. The idea of a high scoring game does not play in App’s favor at this point. Akron is pretty sloppy in all areas of the game outside of their offense. They are the 3rd most penalized team in the country, have allowed the 5th most first downs, and are one of only 11 teams in the nation allowing over 500 yards of offense to their opponents. Only six teams have had two extra points blocked, including Akron, and place kicker Tom O’Leary has missed another extra point opportunity. The best path to victory for Appalachian will be to contain the Zip offense. Akron will certainly test the Mountaineers deep based on what Miami was able to do, and the big ball is such an important part of their game. Appalachian must play a better game in the secondary and keep receivers in front of them and be crisper while substituting or else it could be another long day. 

The First Pick
Buttons 26
Mountaineers 31

Miami @ Appalachian Football

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Here we go with Week 3

Miami (2-0) @ Appalachian State (1-1)

Saturday, September 17th, 2016 12:00 EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 72.03
Miami: 80.68
Home: 2.61
Miami is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 6 points (rounded)
Sportsbook: Miami -4
Series: first meeting
Last meeting: n/a

       We’ve made it, almost. Saturday isn’t quite here yet, but it’s getting closer and the talk of looking ahead and focus can be set aside. Five-time national champion Miami is coming to Boone, and our small mountain town may never be the same. Plenty of big games have been played at Kidd Brewer, and plenty of lofty rankings have come with the opponents that have battled against Appalachian, but none bigger than what we’ll witness this Saturday. The Hurricanes are perfectly nestled into the Top 25. The Mountaineers might have the most talented team they have ever assembled. The Hurricanes are adjusting with a new coaching staff, a young roster, and the first road trip as a group this weekend. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are settled in, having just completed their home opener, and are patiently waiting just like everyone, for the biggest game of their lives. 

       Miami has hardly been tested on the young season. They have easily taken care of two in-state opponents in Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic. Neither team will be very good this season, and it’s doubtful either sees postseason football of any sort. The Hurricanes kept it very simple in those opening wins, getting adjusted to playing together and tuning their offense to Mark Richt’s liking. Miami has safely kept the ball on the ground, playing to the strength of their offensive line. Their defense blitzes about half the time and early returns show that success, as Miami leads the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. 

       When Miami hired Mark Richt, both sides were looking for a fresh start. Miami had been through a series of head coaches since 2007, and their record of 64-49 since that time was unlike what the ‘Canes had been used to. Richt was a good coach in his previous 15 seasons at Georgia, but not great enough for the high demands of coaching in the SEC, despite 14 winning seasons, 15 bowl games, 145 wins and six occurrences with the Bulldogs inside the top 10 of the final AP Poll. Richt’s return to Miami was a homecoming, as he backed up eventual Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Kelly when he played for the Hurricanes from 1978-82. 

       Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya’s name has been mentioned in the same breath as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson as one of the first signal callers to be selected in 2017 NFL Draft, assuming both declare. Over the course of the year, Kaaya will get better with Richt’s coaching, but has started the season a little slow. That follows a sophomore season season where Kaaya also underwhelmed, throwing just 15 touchdown passes, compared to his freshman season where he threw for 26 touchdown passes. Some fail to remember that the 2014 Miami team included Phillip Dorsett and Duke Johnson, both who are contributors for their respective NFL squads, the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns. Kaaya has hovered around a 60% completion percentage his entire career and prefers to stay in the pocket rather than use his legs.

       As mentioned earlier, Miami has been running the ball all over their opponents this season. Three runningbacks ran for over 100 yards against FAMU, and two rushers eclipsed that mark against FAU. Thus far, the Hurricanes have 652 rushing yards on only 75 attempts, good for a team average of 8.7 yards per carry. Mark Walton leads with 271 yards and five touchdowns while Joseph Yearby is not far behind with 226 yards and three touchdowns on the young season. 

       If we want to be super critical, Appalachian has really yet to put together a full 60 minutes this season. With only seven points scored in the second half in two games, one can only wonder if the Apps have been holding their cards close to their vest. The offense was super vanilla last week in the second half against Old Dominion, but the defense was never really threatened, even after repeated attempts by ODU to gain a new set of downs on fourth down. Marcus Cox was his typical self, with 18 carries, 133 yards and three touchdowns. 

       This Miami game is not measuring stick for Appalachian this season. Regardless of the result, there will still be 9 games left to play in the regular season, and the goals of winning the Sun Belt remain. However, the opportunity lingers. We are fully aware of how big a win like one over Miami will be for the program. Recruiting, donations, interest in the school, etc. We have all seen it first hand. What App fans have not had, is the chance to celebrate as one in our own house. But, before we can rejoice in victory, we must win a football game. Small detail, right? The Mountaineers have been tested this season, and surely that bad taste from Tennessee has not been forgotten. Miami has cake walked in their opening games, and have been able to out-athlete their opponents. Miami has been comfortable, playing in their own digs, with all the luxuries that come with being at home. If the same attention that was given to Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd over two weeks ago is repeated, Appalachian will really put itself in good position. The Miami program and coaches have played in many games with racous crowds, but not the 2016 version. How many times has this 2016 Miami team traveled on the road to a town that might be holding the biggest event in its history? I’m not saying Miami isn’t good, or can’t be good this season, I just don’t think they’ll be good enough this Saturday. 

The First Pick

Storks 20

Mountaineers 27

Old Dominion @ Appalachian Football 

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Here we go with Week 2
Old Dominion (1-0) @ Appalachian State (0-1)

Saturday, September 10th, 2016 3:30 EST

TV/Video: American Sports Network, ESPN3, WCCB (Charlotte), WRDC (Triangle)

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.28

Old Dominion: 51.99

Home: 2.61

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 21 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -21

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 49, Old Dominion 0, September 26th, 2016, Norfolk, Va

 

Everyone has a story about the big fish that jumped off the hook, that you know, was like, “this long”.  Oddly enough, one never has any video evidence of how big that fish was or how close it was to really being in the boat. The analogy seems fitting for what occured last week in Knoxville, but DVR’s all across App Nation will have the evidence for years to come. Orange clad fans sang a similar song for those rooting for Appalachian in the parking lots afterwards. Condolences of “good game”, “ya’ll got a great team”, “I’m a huge fan”, “Win the rest of them”, have been heard on the plains in Auburn, the river banks in Chattanooga and the hills of southern Michigan. Nobody likes hearing those words after the toughest of losses, because it sure doesn’t make you feel any better. Those kind words were met with blank stares and utter exhaustion, but after the agony subsides, one realizes what they witnessed and what is to come. It is truly amazing how the lowest of lows can quickly be turned into oodles of optimism and anticipation. 

Tennessee has been beat to death. We’ve all had an extra two days to discuss, so it’s time to turn our attention to Old Dominion, and the Monarchs will have plenty of reason to get excited. A lot has been thrown around regarding the 49-0 thumping the Mountaineers dished out not even a year ago. Much like the second quarter from Clemson in 2015, Appalachian returned the favor in a 28-point second frame that gave the Mountaineers a five touchdown lead at half. The Mountaineers had two weeks to prepare for the Monarchs in 2015, and will have that advantage in 2016 as well. Due to weather, Old Dominion’s game with Hampton was delayed to Sunday afternoon. 

The Monarch faithful really like their chances in 2016 to breakthrough in Conference USA and earn their first bowl bid in school history. ODU will host CUSA heavy hitters Marshall and Southern Miss in consecutive weeks in November. A non-conference win over UMass in October would put them in striking distance for at least a 6 win season. The Monarchs return enough weapons on the offensive side of the ball to keep them in many games, but will hope a young defense can mature quickly. 

In a effort to keep their starting runningback fresh, Old Dominion handed off to Ray Lawry only 14 times in the opening win over Hampton. By the time Lawry had faced Appalachian in 2015, Lawry had nearly 60 carries in two games. Lawry looked solid in his limited role, eclipsing 100 yards and scoring one touchdown on the ground and finishing off a catch and run 59-yard touchdown score in the first quarter. Lawry is a workhouse and when healthy, ODU has shown it isn’t scared to give him ball continuously. Six times in 2015, Lawry went over twenty carries, but ODU was only 3-3 in those games. 

The quarterback Appalachian faced last year has now been relegated to a backup role and it was clear he was not ready in 2015 to handle the pressure. Shuler Bentley threw for only 133 yards and added two interceptions. This season, converted wide receiver David Washington appears to have a handle on the starting duties. Washington began his career at ODU as a quarterback, converted to receiver for most of 2014, and is now back under center. Many claim Washington is the best athlete on the Monarch roster. Washington is mobile and will run when called upon. Luckily for the Appalachian defense, they are familar with backfields that feature an athletic quarterback and a powerful tailback. 

The Mountaineer offense was not called on to make many plays last week. Their job was to control the clock, give the defense a blow or two and take care of the ball. Despite the conservative game plan, Appalachian had every opportunity to pull it out. Marcus Cox was his typical steady self, pacing the rushing attack with 115 yards, while also making a spectacular move to stay on his feet to lead to the second, and final, touchdown for the Mountaineers. Deltron Hopkins was used in misdirection plays successfully. Although his statistics counted as receptions, those plays are really runs by design. 

How about that Mountaineer defense? I am not sure anyone expected that level of quickness, discipline and gang tackling from that group. Jalen Hurd might not get 28 carries in a game for the remainder of the season for Tennessee. Hurd had two games where he amassed 28 carries or more last season, and in those games he averaged 3.6 ypc against Florida and 4.4 ypc versus Missouri. Appalachian held Hurd to 3.9 yards per carry. Joshua Dobbs did not have a negative rushing yard day in all of 2015, yet the Apps held him to -4 yards on nine carries and was also sacked twice and pressured on two other occasions. 
Nobody is expecting a sequel in 2016, but to imagine anything different with the effort the Mountaineers displayed in Knoxville last week would be laughable. This game could be uglier than last year in Norfolk, but the scoreboard is unlikely to represent it. Last year, the Apps were just seven point favorites on the road, but the feelings of the players after a less than stellar result at Clemson, and the attitude that has been displayed this week are reciprocal. Not only will the Mountaineers respond to the current challenge, but they must. An unfavorable result this weekend is hard to imagine and the thoughts of being 0-2 early in the season could be dangerous. Old Dominion has a much better offense than they displayed in 2015, but it will always be tough to gauge early results against lesser teams. Their weakness relies in the back seven of their defense. The Monarchs cannot afford to sell out and stop the run. They just don’t have the options to defend off the play action pass. Old Dominion will have to play a massive game in the trenches to keep it close. All the pressure is on their defensive line to defend the multiple looks Appalachian will throw at them and even their best is likely insufficient. 

The First Pick

Lioness  19

Mountaineers  38