Monthly Archives: October 2016

Appalachian Football @ Georgia Southern

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Here we go with Week 8

Appalachian State (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (4-3, 3-1 Sun Belt)

Thursday, October 27th, 2016 7:30 est

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Paulson Stadium

Surface: Shaw Legion 41 synthetic turf

Capacity: 25,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.59

Ga Southern: 62.73

Home: 2.42

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 5.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -5

Series: App State leads 17-13-1

Last meeting: App State 31, Ga Southern 13, October 22nd, 2015, Boone, NC
       

         Robbed of anticipation and talk, both smack and small, is the main issue for fans when they deal with midweek football. Especially, when the next game on the schedule is your most hated rival, that time to relax before the next game does not exist. The last win was, literally, almost yesterday, and it’s time to get geared up for another one. But, this one is not just another, it’s Southern. Dust off all your cliche rivalry talk, because it all applies. Is there another rivalry that has been so intense in such a short amount of time? These two schools have only played thirty-one games in their history, and only twenty-five games in the modern era, yet it seems every time they tee it up, it’s like the Hatfields and McCoys. The faces may change, but the disdain remains. This group of Eagles are enduring the strife of a new coaching staff that wants to do things differently with the same ingredients and get the same results. It’s not working out like they wanted. Appalachian enjoys its snugness of a tight coaching staff that maintains their winning ways and the proof is in the pudding. The Mountaineers are a win away from being bowl eligible, and Southern needs this game even more, as their schedule just gets tougher down the stretch. Thursday night might not be a turning point in this rivalry, but the winds are blowing a different direction this season in the Sun Belt. 

         It’s hard to imagine a Georgia Southern team with three losses before the end of October. The first true sign that the Eagles were stumbling occured about a month ago. Southern was visiting Western Michigan, a team they had handled easily in Statesboro a year before. The Broncos suffocated the Eagles rushing attack, limiting the big plays and keeping Matt Breida and Kevin Ellison below four yards per carry on the night. Since then, Western Michigan continues to row the boat as they find themselves ranked 20th in the country this week. Perhaps, the ultimate “uh-oh” moment for Southern came in their loss to Arkansas State. The Eagles were thoroughly dominated by the Red Wolves, but were able to hold a two score lead into the fourth quarter, thanks to five turnovers committed by Arkansas State. The Eagles play calling was their ultimate demise, electing to pass late in the game with a lead compared to milking the clock. Arkansas State scored in the closing seconds for a stunning come-from behind win. 

          Southern picked up a win over NMSU last weekend, just like Idaho did the week before playing Appalachian, to end their three game losing streak. However, the road victory did not lack for excitement. The Eagles did just enough for a 22-19 win over the now 124th ranked defense in college football. Both Southern and NMSU turned the ball over three times while The Eagles were outgained by the Aggies by a 432-404 margin. Matt Breida was held to 41 yards on fifteen carries. Kevin Ellison completed all eight of his passes, seven to Southern receivers and one to NMSU. 

          The fact is that Southern is slowly moving away from Willie Fritz football, who bolted to Tulane, into the offensive style of Tyson Summers, which calls for less option based running plays and a more run-pass option dimension. It’s not Georgia Southern football. We all remember Chris Hatcher and Brian Van Gorder and their efforts of modernizing football down in east Georgia. It didn’t work and they didn’t have a job long. The Eagles have three 100-yard rushing efforts on the season, two by quarterbacks. Not LA Ramsby. Not Matt Breida. Not Wesley Fields. Demarcus Godfrey ran for 124 yards against Savannah State, but has not carried the ball since. 

           Southern still employs the two quaterback system, generally starting the game with Kevin Ellison, and working in Favian Upshaw and rotating the two as the game allows. Unfortunately, the Southern offensive line has dropped off severely and Ellison and Upshaw have taken many hits in the last few weeks. Arkansas State made a point to gang tackle Ellison at every chance, while Georgia Tech used Upshaw as a punching bag. Upshaw did not play against NMSU and Tyson Summers did not show any of his cards when updating the media on the health of his signal callers ahead of this week’s game. Summers went so far as to say he could play three quarterbacks on Thursday night. 

          The defensive strategy the Mountaineers rely on was on display, front and center. Idaho could only manage a late touchdown and four field goals. It was the exact struggle we mentioned last week regarding Idaho. Not enough touchdowns, too many field goals. Appalachian may have allowed 295 passing yards, but it was a very quiet 295 yards. Appalachian was constantly disruptive, picking off Linehan three times and sacking him on four instances. The secondary occasionally gets up a bad reputation, but they remain in the top thirty in the nation in passing efficiency defense, having only allowed eight passing touchdowns in seven games. The Mountaineers twelve interceptions are also good enough for seventh nationally. 
            
           Georgia Southern will return home to Paulson for the first time in forty days. The Eagles spent an extra day in New Mexico for some reason. You would think after all that time away from home, Southern would like to get back as soon as possible. Neither App or Southern resemble their squads from two years ago, when the two faced off in their first ever Sun Belt game, and they aren’t the teams from one year ago either. But, if anything, the one common denominator from 2015 to ’16 is the App defense. Generally, you look at any football team, averaging 265 yards on the ground and think you have a big challenge ahead. This is a regressing Eagle team, averaging just a mere 4.6 yards per carry, and forcing the issue, running the ball just over 57 times a game. The Southern staff wants to throw more, but they don’t have the pieces in place yet to fully commit. The fact that Matt Breida has 378 yards and only one touchdown rushing is criminal. The Eagles have scored 204 points this season, but over one-fourth of those points were scored in their opening game against Savannah State. Since then, the Eagles have been stuck in the twenties for five of their last six games. They have the talent to do much more than they have, but they have not been put in the situation to succeed. Meanwhile, Appalachian has a chance to get a big road win, and they may finally have the services of Marcus Cox back on the field. If Cox is near 100%, his fresh legs will be a huge advantage for the Mountaineers on Thursday, and for the rest of the season. 

The First Pick

The Blues 21

Mountaineers 31

Idaho @ Appalachian Football

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Here we go with Week 7

Idaho (4-3, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 22th, 2016 3:30 est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.66

Idaho: 53.23

Home: 2.42

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 20 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -21

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last meeting: App State 47, Idaho 20, November 14th, 2015, Moscow, ID

       If a football season were a mall parking lot, the Mountaineers just rolled over the speed bump and are on their way towards the second half of the season with games in six straight weeks. The Mountaineer defense is rounding into form after laying a zero on the Ragin’ Cajuns. More impressively, the Apps are doing it with a bunch of unfamiliar names in key spots. Linebackers Eric Boggs and John Law played minimally in the win over Louisiana, which paved the way for standout performances by their backups. Meanwhile, Idaho is rolling about as well as they ever have in the FBS. With four wins, the folks in Moscow are thinking about a bowl trip as they close their time at the FBS level. Pretty ironic, in the following season that Idaho announces to reclassify to FCS for football, that they have their best season in many years. Don’t blame Idaho for their geography. They knew when they joined the Sun Belt that is was going to be a short relationship, as the Sun Belt chose to go young and east for their future memberships. This will likely be the Vandals second and final trip to Boone for some time. They couldn’t have picked a better time of the year to visit, as the leaves are holding on for dear life and some Appalachian alums from far and wide make the annual trek to Boone for homecoming festivities. 

        Idaho’s football season has sputtered to an extent, but their big win over New Mexico State last week has garnered some attention. The Vandals hold a series lead over the Aggies by a count of 16-7. That makes up for over half of their all time wins over Sun Belt schools, which total 31, but not all count as Sun Belt league wins. The other three wins by Idaho this year are over UL-Monroe, UNLV and Montana State, which are a combined 7-13 on the season. Respectively, their Sagarin ranks are, 152, 114, and 187. Coincidentally, all those wins are by three points. But, just like Appalachian, the Vandals have two losses to Power 5 schools in Washington & Washington State. 

         By this point, most are familiar with Vandal quarterback Matt Linehan and his football family tree. We covered that two years ago and beat writer Bret Strelow did so more recently. Linehan has eight touchdown passes in seven games, but his passing numbers have not been fantastic. Linehan has only eclipsed 250 passing yards once this season, against NMSU, and half of those eight touchdown passes came last week as well. Linehan accumulated 476 passing yards against the Aggies and misfired on just seven of his pass attempts. He added a rushing touchdown and 28 yards on the ground in that win. 

      The Vandals will use five receivers on the field in many situations but three of their pass catchers make up for over half of their completed passes on the season. Deon Watson has caught 26 passes for 380 yards. Alfonso Onunwor sports a 27/283 slash while Trent Cowan adds 23/256. There is not a ton of difference between the trio. Watson broke out last week for 129 yards and a touchdown as did Onunwor, who had 117 yards and a touchdown. Cowan added 64 yards. All three performances were their season highs. Jordan Frysinger is sneaky, with only eight catches on the year, but averages 25.5 yards per catch, and has all of his catches in two games. 

          Appalachian took no prisoners last week in Lafayette. Several items are obvious, such as the shutout, the big day from Shaedon Meadors and the continued consistency from Jalin Moore. Not to be outdone, Colin Reed got his first start and found the end zone. Death, taxes, and App State tight end touchdowns are the only sure things in life. It’s nice to see that the Mountaineers can plug and play at several positions on both sides of the ball. The defense finished with ten tackles for loss and five sacks while keeping Cajun all-purpose threat Elijah McGuire to 53 yards on eleven touches. Overall Louisiana running backs could only muster 3.4 yards per carry. With only three points allowed in the last two games, Appalachian has vaulted to 19th in all of FBS in points allowed at 18.8 per game. 

          At first thought, the twenty-two point margin at open, now 21, that Appalachian was favored by in this game seemed like a lot for a team that has left half of the playbook in the locker room at halftime for most of the season. That’s not a bad thing really. Crusing to wins may be boring for the fans, but it is exactly what every football coach in America wants. Back to spread talk. The Apps pushed with the Vandals in 2014 with a seventeen point win, and covered a big 19.5 points last year in Moscow. In both instances, the Sagarin ratings were right in line with Vegas and that seems to be the case this season. This result all depends on how Idaho finishes their drives. It has been a season long  issue until last week, that the Vandals move the ball between the twenties, until they get to the red zone, and the space to work with gets tighter. As the field shrinks, there is less space for all those receivers to run and Linehan seems to get antsy in the pocket. Linehan will roll out, further decreasing the size of the field to work with, and his accuracy suffers when he scrambles. Idaho also lacks the ability to run the football between the lines, which leaves them to pass into the end zone. Luckily, Idaho has one of the best punters and kickers in the country in Austin Rehkow, who has 14 field goals in 2016. He can keep them close early, but chances are you aren’t beating Appalachian with field goals. The odds of Idaho and their 105th best red zone offense facing off against the Mountaineers and their 21st best red zone defense spells trouble for the Vandals. The Mountaineers will impose their will on the Vandals and wear them out late in this one. 

The First Pick

Starches 16

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Louisiana

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Here we go with Week 6

Appalachian State (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ UL-Lafayette (2-3, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016 8pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN2

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN
Cajun Stadium

Surface: Pro Grass Synthetic

Capacity: 41,426

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.22

Louisiana: 54.57

Home: 2.45

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 13 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -10

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last meeting: App State 28, Louisiana 7, November 28th, 2015, Boone

       This feels like the longest bye week in recent memory, yet all of a sudden, it has ended really quickly. Games played on a Wednesday are totally different than a game on a Thursday. The Mountaineers will get two long breaks between games in October, compared to last season, when Appalachian was dealt a hand that sandwiched a Halloween game between two Thursday night games. Eleven long days will have passed before kickoff on Wednesday, and then another half fortnight before the next kickoff at home vs Idaho. This will be the first time Applachian will have dealt with such a schedule, whereas Louisiana is slightly more familiar with a true midweek game. Louisiana lost twice last season in midweek games, both on the road. The Cajuns won two mid week games in 2014, and two out of three such games in 2013. That experience by the Cajun coaching staff will certainly be in their favor compared to the Mountaineers. You can count Appalachian’s midweek games on one hand. Two of those games have come against Gerogia Southern, and the other against Arkansas State. The Mountaineers, in their third road game of the season, will need to retain copious amounts of energy for this primetime conference fight on national television in order to keep pace in the Sun Belt. 

        The biggest issue facing the Cajuns coming into this game is the overall health and experience of their defense. The defensive line has been decimated with injuries; too many to list here. The linebackers are really solid and experienced while the secondary is their major weakness. The Cajuns have had to backfill with junior college transfers and they have been abused to the tune of 298 passing yards allowed a game. Only five schools surrender more yards in the air. Remember the terrible Akron secondary? The Cajuns are worse. The 11 touchdown passes they have given up occured in four games, and they have also allowed 260+ passing yards in four of five games. Just to be clear, the Cajuns haven’t given up one or two big days to skew the statistics, they have been equally horrendous for the better part of the young season. 

          This Cajun team isn’t far off from having a really nice season. Forget their 2-3 record. They lost two overtime games on the road their last times out and their first loss, Boise State, is now 5-0 and ranked 15th in the AP Poll. However, the Cajun losses are pretty easily explained. Anthony Jennings, the Louisiana State graduate transfer, has thrown six interceptions in his last three games. The Cajun defense has allowed a 92% score rate while defending the red zone, with half of those going for touchdowns. They are giving up nearly five red zone possessions per game at the same time. 

          This season for the Cajuns really has to be put into perspective. They have now lost in consecutive years to New Mexico State. Numerous wins were stripped of the program in the off season, including two bowl victories. They lost to Tulane despite throwing an 0/16 on third downs to the Green Wave offense, but were -3 in the turnover department. Lousiaina rolled up 256 yards rushing against South Alabama and still managed to escape by just five points. This team can put up some yards, and they have athletes all over the field, but their discipline, whether it be game flow, time of possession, whatever, just is not quite there to be a consistent winning football team. 

          It has been awhile since we’ve been able to review the Georgia State win. The most important part, was another win in the Sun Belt. After three seasons, the Mountaineers have allowed 6 points to Georgia State. The defense corralled four interceptions, and shut down any threat from the Panthers. The Taylor Lamb led offense once again, did just enough to get by. After a scoreless first half, Jalin Moore housed another long touchdown run, and the offense put the game on ice with a decisive fourth quarter touchdown drive to keep the Panthers at bay. 

          Back to the scene of the crime in 2014. The Mountaineers were fresh off a win over Arkansas State, and the season that started 1-5 had come full circle. The Mountaineers thumped Louisiana 35-16, and obtained their sixth win, a huge milestone for the first year in FBS football. Louisiana had been bowling for three straight years and were the class of the Sun Belt. At that point in time, it was the most impressive win for Appalachian in its short FBS history. Fast forward nearly two years, and it’s arguable that the roles have been reversed. It’s the Cajuns that are teetering, with an 8-11 record since that initial loss to the Mountaineers. Anthony Jennings was supposed to be a good quarterback for Louisiana. He was close to getting benched against New Mexico State, before reserve quarterback Jalen Nixon broke his ankle. Now Mark Hudspeth is stuck with a guy who lost his job at Lousiana State, and would have lost it again if not for an injury. The entire game for Louisiana starts with him. I know, Elijah McGuire is a good running back, but his presence will not be felt if Jennings cannot get it going at some point. If the Mountaineer defense can beat Jennings, the Apps will win. It does not matter to me right now who starts at running back for Appalachian. The Cajuns will give up the most yards on the ground that they will have surrendered this season, and the Mountaineers will hit just enough plays in the passing game to gut out a win. 

    

The First Pick

Green Peppers 20

Mountaineers 28