Appalachian Football @ New Mexico State

Here we go with Week 12

Appalachian State (8-3, 6-1 Sun Belt) @ New Mexico State (3-7, 2-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 26th, 2016 4pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Aggie Memorial Stadium 

Surface: Synthetic Turf

Capacity: 30,343

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.34

NMSU: 48.39

Home: 2.35

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 21 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -17.5

Series: First Meeting 

Last meeting: n/a   

         

          Two weekends ago was not an ideal situation. But this past week, could not have been written any better. Marcus Cox etched his name deeper into the App State annals by becoming the program’s all time leading rusher on a twenty-five yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. The game was long decided, but up until that run, it was somewhat in doubt whether or not Cox would reach the record in his final game at The Rock. Cox managed two carries for 17 yards in the first quarter, and ended the first half with 61 yards on eight carries, not quite halfway to the 137 yards he needed.  But the third quarter was a different story. Nine carries for 55 yards made breaking the record almost inevitable, and the deed was done on his third carry of the fourth quarter. Cox was buoyed by big runs all game long, registering six that went for 12 or more yards. Most of us have been very fortunate to witness the greatness of this program over the last few decades. We all knew that Kevin Richardson would have a chance to chase down John Settle. We all knew that Kevin Richardson’s record would be broken eventually, but Marcus Cox topped him in quick fashion. The only doubt was the injury Cox suffered earlier in the year, not knowing when he would return to action. We have all been witnesses to individual history, but football is a team game and chasing a second consecutive ten-win season is the next hurdle for the Mountaineers. 

          Finally, after three seasons, Appalachian will have played all members of the Sun Belt in its twenty-fourth conference game. App has played five Sun Belt teams three times before finally heading to Las Cruces, New Mexico. The Mountaineers will play New Mexico State again next season in Boone, and then likely never again, as the Aggies were not extended a invitation to remain in the Sun Belt, and has opted to go independent in 2018. This has been the second stint in the Sun Belt for New Mexico State, and likely their last. The Aggies seem to have the worst luck over the course of the program’s existence as they have dealt with being indepedent on more than one occasion and were in the WAC when several teams left to join other conferences, leading to the ultimate death of football in the Western Athletic Conference. It seems nobody really wants New Mexico State at their party. 

          It has been since 1960 that New Mexico State has played in a bowl game, which is the longest streak in the country. The Aggies have played in three bowls games in their history without losing one, and have four conference titles to their name over the course of 118 years of football. The last season New Mexico State finished with a winning record was in 2002, and the time before that as 1978. The program has won just 40% of their games they have played. 

          This year’s Aggie team is making strides under fourth year head coach Doug Martin. They have found some offense in 2016 and knocked off Lousiana-Lafayette for the second straight season back in October. Their 3-7 record could be much better if they had not lost the services of star running back Larry Rose III for three games. Rose III was basically a twenty carry running back prior to his injury, and has been eased back. Last week in the win over Texas State, Rose III looked like his old self with 168 yards on the ground. The 50-10 win was the most lopsided of the season, as the Texas State busses were involved in an accident en route to the game, which was eventually delayed. 

             New Mexico State is the top passing offense in the Sun Belt as junior Tyler Rogers has tossed at least one touchdown pass in every game except one this season. He has eclipsed three hundred yards on three occasions, including a 445 yard performance against Troy where he was bogged down with five interceptions. Despite leading the conference in yards, as a team New Mexico State is only eighth of eleven Sun Belt teams in passing efficiency. The Aggies are one of four Sun Belt teams coming in at under seven yards per pass attempt. The volume comes from game flow, and when teams know its coming, its easier to defend down the field and in the pocket. The Aggies give up three sacks per game, while the Mountaineers are tied with Troy sacking the opposing quarterback twenty-six times this season. 
          

          We suggested the cure for the App State offense would be Monroe, and boy was it. The Mountaineers put up a season high 637 yards of offense, powered by a 429 yard effort on the ground, which was also a season high. The result was a 9.2 yards per play average, which is basically unheard of. Taylor Lamb was solid with a 208 yard game, including his sixtieth career touchdown pass to Ike Lewis from sixty yards out. Lamb added 92 yards on the ground while Jalin Moore chipped in a ho-hum 135 rushing yards on thirteen carries. The offense will look to feast again on a very subpar defense that ranks 118th in the country. 

         
        As much as Monroe was improving last week, we can not go with out saying how much better New Mexico State has played at home this season. All three wins by the Aggies this season have come at home, and their only home loss was to Georgia Southern, who they really should have beat. New Mexico State exploded for fifty points last week, which may have more to do with Texas State’s unfortunate drive to the game than what the Aggies were able to do. Texas State turned the ball over five times and likely had their minds somewhere else. Unfortunately for the Aggies, they face a statistical mismatch against the Mountaineers. The Aggies are going to need Appalachian to be completely uninterested in playing, force turnovers and score points on almost every possession. That is unlikely to happen, as the Mountaineers have defensively accepted every challenge that has been thrown at them in conference play. Expect the Mountaineers to test the outer edges of the Aggie defense as two of the better linebackers in the league, Rodney Butler and Dalton Herrington man the interior and weak side of the formations. Look for at least one sack from Keenan Gilchrist or Devan Stringer as both New Mexico State starting tackles are freshman. 

The First Pick

Toy Guns 13

Mountaineers 42

Louisiana-Monroe @ Appalachian Football

Here we go with Week 11

Louisiana-Monroe (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (7-3, 5-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 19th, 2016 2:30 est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium 

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.65

ULM: 48.85

Home: 2.29

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 25 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -25.5

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last meeting: App State 59, ULM 14,  October 17th, 2015, Monroe, LA   
         

          Last weekend was not an ideal situation. There are plenty of situations that happened during the game that could have flipped the script, and put Appalachian in the position they would prefer to be in. Alas, we all must wait and watch and take care of the business that we can control. We can make sure that we appreciate another set of seniors who sacrificed two years of postseason football with our presence on Saturday. It’s the last home game of the season, and it will be a long winter before we enter the gates at Kidd Brewer in 2017. A ten win season is still well within reach. A second bowl apperance in as many years is also on the horizon. But, before we get ahead of ourselves, an improving Monroe squad comes to Boone with all the confidence in the world after consecutive victories over South Alabama and Georgia State. These Warhawks need a win to keep their slim bowl hopes alive, and you can guarantee they’ll try anything to make that happen. The Mountaineers’ job is to keep that from happening. Putting aside a tough loss is hard, but its time to move on and get back on track. 

          First year Monroe head coach Matt Viator is one of three Sun Belt head coaches to get a win in Boone, it just happens that his win came in 2009 as head coach of McNeese State. Viator left his alma mater after ten years as head coach and seven seasons as an assistant. This season will be his first as a head coach with six losses, as he never finished below .500 while in Lake Charles. Viator was actually recruited by Monroe, formerly Northeast Louisiana, out of high school as a quarterback, but instead chose to stay close to home, and went to McNeese State. 

         Prior to last weekend, Monroe had lost every road game in the 2016 season. The Warhawks are forced to play an unbalanced out of conference schedule in order to pay the bills, by visiting two Power Five schools. They had been outscored  in those games by 178 points combined with four of those opponents scoring over 0ver fifty points. Luckily, Monroe was handed the gift of a Georgia State program that checked out, and subsequently fired their coach. Monroe grounded out the win last week the same way most teams beat the Panthers this season, by sticking to the running game and wearing a defense out that was always on the field. 

         Monroe teams from the past have not been able to run the ball effectively, but Matt Viator has quickly remedied that deficiency. The Warhawks have not been incredible on the ground this season, but they have committed to that being a big part of their offense. They have run for over 100 yards in eight of their ten games, and have eclipsed 200 yards on four occasions. Eight of their nineteen rushing touchdowns this season have come in the last two games. New starting quarterback Caleb Evans has been effective running the read option with 80 yards rushing in the last weeks, while Thomas Koufie had a breakout game against Georgia State with five rushing touchdowns and 201 yards. Evans replaced Garrett Smith, who was lost for the year to injury during the Texas State game.                

          The Mountaineer offense will look to get its groove back, and the Monroe defense might be the cure. The Warhawks are 121st nationally defensively and allow 245 yards on the ground. Additionally, the Warhawks have surrendered twenty touchdown passes while only intercepting four passes all season long. The big story this weekend is obviously whether or not Marcus Cox will break Kevin Richardson’s school rushing record in his final home game. Needing 137 yards, Cox would have to surpass his season average of 96.5 yards per game, and his 108 yard average against Monroe in two career games. Factor in that Jalin Moore and Cox have pretty much split carries the last three weeks, chances are Cox will need a long run to get to 137 this weekend. 
         

        We shouldn’t look past Monroe this weekend. They are playing better and really starting to find themselves. The difference for them in the last two weeks has been staying in games. Georgia State answered Monroe scores on several occasions, but instead of rushing to panic, they stuck to their game plan and it worked. The same thing happened against South Alabama when they trailed by a touchdown on three different occasions. They have improved, but maybe not enough for this weekend. The outside chance of getting bowl eligible is a nice story. That ends soon. Appalachian is going to give it to Monroe where it hurts. The Warhawk offense might stick around longer than the Mountaineers want them to by refusing to look at the scoreboard and playing with their heads down. The Warhawks have been terribly slow starters this season, scoring a mere 47 first quarter points. Appalachian counters, with the second quarter being their highest scoring quarter, while also allowing the fewest points in the second frame. This sets up for the typical, get a lead at half and cruise to the finish game for the Mountaineers. However, I can see a few late scores for Monroe if they can handle the possible snow flurries and quick temperature change from Friday to Saturday. 

The First Pick

Aces and Eights 19

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Troy

Here we go with Week 10

Appalachian State (7-2, 5-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (7-1, 4-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 12th, 2016 3:30 est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Veterans Memorial Stadium Stadium

Surface: AstroPlay

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.18

Troy: 71.41

Home: 2.40

Troy is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: Pick’em

Series: App State leads 3-2

Last meeting: App State 44, Troy 41 (3OT), October 31st, 2015, Boone, NC   

         The Sun Belt will not hold a conference championship football game until 2018, but in the meantime, Appalachian and Troy are the closest you can get to such a game. Without a true round robin schedule, this game doesn’t act as a de facto championship, as those pesky Red Wolves of Arkansas State loom next week for Troy, and sport an unblemished conference record. There still exists a really good chance that a split conference title will occur. Arkansas State will be rooting for Troy this weekend with plans to knock them off next Thursday, and Appalachian will be doing the same in reverse, hoping to beat Troy , and hope the Trojans respond a few days later. Either a tie for first or second place will likely occur between these three teams and create a pecking order as the bowl season plays out. Neither wants to travel terribly far, or play in the Dollar General Bowl just days before Christmas. Thus, the importance of this next week in the Sun Belt. For Applachian, this game is about more than just a bowl spot. It’s all about winning a conference championship. The Mountaineers have finished second twice in their first two seasons in the Belt. It’s time to take that next step in their nearly unmatched transitional success at college football’s highest level. 

          A challenge like this is what dreams are made of for every player and coach. Beating up on teams that have less talent will only take you so far. Troy and Appalachian are clearly the two best teams in the Sun Belt this season. Forget about the records, and compare these two teams statistically and they are near images of one another. Both teams can run the ball, and stop the run. Both create issues on defense with turnovers, sacks and tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The difference in a game where matchups are so close on paper comes down to execution in key situations where an offense throws something at a defense they are not ready for. Simply running your offense in a game of this magnitude won’t get either team any where close to winning a title. 

          The majority of Troy’s success is due to the consistency of their offense. It might take them a couple series to figure out what is going to work well against your scheme, but they’ll find it and attack. The Trojans have three games with 300 yards passing and four games where they have eclipsed 175 yards rushing. They have scored on the ground and in the air at least once in every game. The task for Appalachian is real, but they must depend on what got them to this point: running to the ball, finishing each tackle and leaving no doubt. 

         Beyond steady play, Troy likes to push the tempo on offense. Constantly, Troy wants to get on the ball after a gain, by avoiding a huddle and trying to snap the ball before the play clock hits twenty seconds. On many occasions, receivers are not running routes to get open, but really to make the defense cover a part of the field that will not be targeted. Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers rarely works through his progressions, rather focusing on throwing the ball to a spot and putting the onus of making a play on his receivers. Coach Neal Brown knows exactly how important Silvers is to the team and wants to keep Silvers upright in the pocket, and the best way to accomplish that is for Silvers to get rid of the ball quickly. 

         Unlike Texas State, the majority of Troy’s passes lands in the hands of two receivers. Emanuel Thompson and Deondre Douglas lead the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns, but seven other receivers have played in every game. Nine different pass catchers have caught touchdown passes and seventeen have a caught a pass throughout the year. Watch out for Tevaris McCormick, who has three touchdowns on just fourteen receptions, and averages over eighteen yards per catch. Jordan Chunn gets all the love running the football, averaging 112.4 yards per game and has an impressive 899 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. Hs is a bigger back that churns out 5 yards per attempt, and has a touchdown in every game this season, except Clemson. Oddly enough, Chunn has alternated his four 100-yard rushing games this season. He would be due for a 100-yard game this weekend, but three of his four such games have occured on the road. 

          The Mountaineer running attack has really rounded into form with back-to-back games right at 300 yards on the ground. The effectiveness of Marcus Cox and Jalin Moore cannot be understated. Moore has extended his streak of 100-yard games to six, and has at least one 20-yard run in each games. After shouldering a heavy load of carries in his first two starts against Akron and Georgia State, Moore has only one 20+ attempt game in his last four and is gashing defenses to the tune of 7.3 yards per carry during the same time frame. Cox has returned with renewed sense of urgency from his injury, also racking up seven yards per carry in his last two games. Cox has 100 yards rushing in every game he has finished this season, excluding Miami where he was injured. 

           Something is going to give on Saturday. If Troy’s fourth ranked run defense can hold Appalachian to anywhere near their defensive average, it will not be a game that Appalachian wins. Stubbornly, the Mountaineers will run until it works. The Apps have called at least 37 running plays in every game, and five times have run 47 times or more. Last year, the Mountaineers totaled 248 rushing yards against Troy. That is the Mountaineers identity, and it’s not going away just because of some numbers that Troy has accumulated against a less than impressive schedule. Five of Troy’s eight opponents are ranked 104th in the country or worse running the football. New Mexico State (104th), Idaho (106th), South Alabama (114th), Massachusetts (122nd), & Georgia State (126th) are all averaging 134 yards a game or less on the ground. Austin Peay, Troy’s opening game opponent, is 47th of 122 teams in the FCS at 165 yards per game on the ground. The Apps will get theirs on the ground, which in turn always helps the passing attack. In turn, Troy will get their passing yards. We all know Appalachian doesn’t mind giving up a play or two in the middle of the field, but clamps down at the right time. Outside of their Power Five opponents, both teams will be facing their toughest test of the season, but it’s the Mountaineers that have been tested more often this season and last. Troy is good, but they aren’t great yet, and they will not be sneaking up on Appalachian like they did last season. 

The First Pick

T-Roy 20

Mountaineers 27

Texas State @ Appalachian Football

Here we go with Week 9

Texas State (2-5, 0-3 Sun Belt ) @ Appalachian State (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt) 

Saturday, November 5th, 2016 3:30 est
TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.79

Texas State: 42.77

Home: 2.44

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 31.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -32

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 41, Texas State 34, October 4th, 2004, Boone, NC

      

         Everyone has a favorite restaurant they prefer to have a decent meal. Generally that meal is one that is prepared the same way every time. Perhaps you might skip lunch in preparation for this great meal so you can make room. Occasionally that grand dish doesn’t perform up to standards. Perhaps there are new cooks in the kitchen. Maybe the waitress didn’t remember put on the same perfume or the tea isn’t sweet enough. Maybe the meat or fish was not as fresh and did not deliver. The meal still filled you up, and you’ll still go back to the restaurant, but you leave a little unfulfilled. That’s the best I can describe last week’s experience at Georgia Southern. At the end of the day, a win over the Eagles in Paulson will do the trick. It does not mean any less in the win loss column, but it does not feel right when the students are not telling you that you are number one, while dropping a four letter word or two. Georgia Southern, please come back. We need you to be competitive for the Sun Belt to be fun. Please, get it figured out. In the meantime, we’ll keep knocking off Sun Belt opponents one by one waiting for your return. 

          Texas State is the next victim for the Mountaineers. It’s that simple. The Bobcats, formerly of the FCS and in their sixth season of FBS football have had mixed results. Many forget that Texas State was 7-5 and 5-3 in Sun Belt play in 2014, but were left out of the bowl picture. Late season wins over Arkansas State and Georgia State turned out to be, too little, too late for Texas State. Outside of that one winning season, Texas State has a couple of 6-6 seasons in their short tenure in FBS. Some remember the Texas State debacle in the 2005 FCS playoffs which directly impacted Appalachian’s first national chmapionship. The fourth seeded Bobcats took a knee late in the fourth quarter of a tied game with three time outs to head to overtime. Northern Iowa prevailed in the extra period of that semifinal, and the rest is history. 

          This season has not been kind to Texas State. It’s never easy when a new coach takes over. Everett Withers, the former Mountaineer, is doing his best with fewer than the max of 85 scholarships due to massive turnover in the offseason. That has led to a ton of first year players getting significant minutes early on in their career. Eventually, that will payoff, but in the current moment, it leads to disappointment. Texas State made some noise early this season in its first game with a triple OT win over Ohio. That has been the only D-1 win for the Bobcats to date. Texas State gets the three leaders of the Sun Belt in their final five games along with Idaho and New Mexico State on the road. They are unlikely to be favored in any of those matchups. 

         Withers and his staff rolled up tons of offense in two years at James Madison, and that is the plan as well in San Marcos. They intend to run upwards of eighty offensive plays a game with plans of slowly wearing out defenses. The Bobcats are averaging about 38 passes a game, but aren’t really moving the ball down the field. They live for the short pass, and hoping a receiver can make a play with it, rather than relying on the quarterback to make a throw. Quarterback Tyler Jones is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt, and only 10.4 yards per completed pass. As a team, Texas State’s 4.7 yards per play is dead last in the Sun Belt. Their inability to drive down the field, and volume of clock stopping incompletions have led to a poor time of possession margin. The Bobcats are losing that battle by nearly nine minutes per game. 

           We will see Texas State throw the ball all over the yard and to a bevy of receivers. Six of them have over twenty receptions, including leading rusher Stedman Mayberry who also leads the team in receptions. Mayberry’s receptions also do not go very far, averaging 7.6 yards per catch. Mayberry tacks on just over 60 yards rushing per game, but you’ll only see him get around 15 carries. The Bobcats have just two 100-yard receivers on the season, and both came in their wins. 

          After a somewhat nervous first fifteen minutes in Statesboro, the Mountaineers finally settled down and slowly destroyed Georgia Southern, scoring the game’s final 34 points. The level of dominance led to one of the most lopsided results in the series. Appalachian rolled up 299 rushing yards while also holding the Eagles to just 65 yards on the ground. That same story might be repeated this weekend against Texas State.  The Bobcats are giving up 234 yards a game on the ground while Appalachian is second in conference play with 208 yards via the run. Appalachian nearly had three players break the century mark against the Eagles, and having two break 100 yards against Texas State seems like a really safe bet. 

           The goal is not to make it sound like Texas State isn’t very good.  That’s pretty evident. They aren’t very good and just about every Texas State weakness plays right into a Mountaineer strength. Be prepared, this could be a very boring game to watch as a fan. Appalachian’s real challenge will be to keep from looking ahead to their next game while at the same time, playing loose and avoiding injuries. The health of this Mountaineer team is a major plus at this time of the season, and backups have had the chances to get plenty of playing time. That really showed against Georgia Southern last week when twenty-four different players made a tackle, and the leading tackler, Eric Boggs had just six stops. That is the fewest tackles that the leading tackler for an entire game has had this season. Georgia Southern had zero plays that went for over 20 yards and did not eclipse 100 total yards until the last drive. Long story short, this defense is playing outstanding. To think, that after four Sun Belt games, the black shirts have yet to give up a touchdown that has mattered in the least bit is really astounding. Forget that the offense is not quite what we want it to be. It’s plenty for the best defense in the conference and a top twenty defense nationwide. This offense will be more than enough to take on the 121st ranked defense in Texas State. The Bobcats are worse than Akron on defense in total yards and touchdowns allowed per game and they get to deal with Appalachian’s full compliment of backs. This will be decided quickly, and the only question is the margin. 

           
The First Pick

Strutters 7

Mountaineers 42