Monthly Archives: September 2017

Appalachian Football vs Wake Forest

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Appalachian State (2-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) vs Wake Forest (3-0, 1-0 ACC)

Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.25

Wake Forest: 76.81

Home: 2.41

Wake Forest is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: Wake -4

Series: Wake Forest leads 14-7-1

Last meeting: Wake Forest 20, App State 10, September 8th, 2001

Ya’ll, it has been a long time coming for this one. Think about all the events and memories that have been made in your life since the last time Appalachian and Wake Forest met on the gridiron. If you had a child born in 2001, they are getting their drivers license this year. Dale Earnhardt’s death was still fresh on many Carolinian minds and the World Trade Center was still standing. A lot has changed, but the hunger for these two schools to play football hasn’t diminished. Eighty-eight miles of US 421, partially named by famous stock car drivers on some stretches, is all that separates these two schools. Unfortunately, college football started becoming less about the game on the field and more about padding the back pockets of those who keep watch over athletics. Appalachian and Wake could have easily scheduled a win, or gone on the road to get a paycheck and keep the budgets in the black. Thankfully, these two schools have remembered what is important about one of the experiences of college football. Packed stadiums, plenty of atmosphere and a competitive spirit inside and outside the lines. Conference footprints have expanded so that the parishioners at service on Sunday do not recognize the schools opponents. Its hard to explain how much this just feels right. Appalachian and Wake Forest belong in the same breath. Even with scholarship discrepancies in the past, these two schools were neck and neck on the field more than enough times. Neither side wants to lose and both expecting a win. I’m not sure college football gets any better than that. 

In 2001, the Deacons went 6-5, but did not get a bowl invitation. Since then they have had five winning seasons, and played in six bowl games. The 2011 was the oddball, finishing 6-7 after a bowl loss to Mississippi State. Most notably, the Deacons were ACC champions and played in the Orange Bowl in 2007, but fell to the eventual conference mate Louisville. Last season was the first winning season for Wake since 2008, getting a win in the Military Bowl and finishing 7-6. As has been the luck for Appalachian’s out of conference opponents, Wake has jumped out of the gates hot with three wins in rather dominating fashion to start the 2017 campaign. 

In those three games, Wake has benefited from a stronger than usual defense, and an offense that has put a lot of points on the board. Wake has sixteen touchdowns and they have all been scored by the offense except one, a thirty yard interception return vs. Utah State. The Deacons have been balanced, with seven rushing touchdowns, and eight passing touchdowns. Senior quarterback John Wolford has contributed nine of those scores, three with his legs and six with his arm. Wolford has been surprising, but more importantly he has played smart, not throwing an interception. In fact, the Deacons have just one turnover on the season, an interception thrown by their third string quarterback. 

Greg Dortch is one guy the Moutaineers must know where he is on the field at all times. Dortch has four touchdowns, leads the team in receptions and yards, and also returns kickoffs and punts. He has the abilty to burn you with his speed as he did vs Utah State on a catch and run or go up and make an acrobatic play in the end zone and get a foot down for a score, like he did at Boston College. The Demon Deacons have this kid for three more seasons, so this won’t be the last time Appalachian has to worry about him, as he’ll be a senior when the Mountaineers return to Winston-Salem in the 2020 season. 

Wake Forest takes a committee/all hands on deck approach to their running game. Four players have at least 26 carries on the season, including Wolford. Cade Carney and Matt Colburn will not burn you, but they move the pile and are tough to tackle. Arkeem Byrd fits the bill as a more traditional back at 6-1, 190 pounds. Byrd is also a redshirt freshman and will be around for awhile. Appalachian’s coaches will be familiar with him as they recruited and offered Byrd early in the 2015 recruiting process. 

We’ve got to the point where we have to mention last week’s game. The Apps played about thirty minutes on Saturday in San Marcos, but gutted out a conference win. It was one on the lowest offensive outputs in terms of yardage in a win in a very long time. What is worse, is that several players felt the effects of the physical game well into the early week. Those day-to-day injuries typically heal enough once Saturday comes around, but it is something to keep an eye on. If anyone had a good performance, it was Terrance Upshaw. Most of his work came in the fourth quarter, and he scored the go-ahead touchdown. Upshaw didn’t lose a yard on any of his fourteen carries, which went for sixty yards and a touchdown. Upshaw now leads the team with 163 yards on the season. Taylor Lamb follows with 117 yards and Jalin Moore has 109 yards. 

Another solid performance was turned in by the App State defense. They gave up one score over the top, but kept Texas State in check for the remainder of the game. They gave up a few yards, but didn’t allow a red zone touchdown. Anthony Flory was named the conference defensive player of the week with his nine tackles and two sacks. The Mountaineers repeatedly assualted Damian Williams, but that sucker just kept getting up. 

Last week, I was all types of wrong in the closing paragraph. It could not have been worse. The bigggest miss in a long time. Something about last week was not right. Not sure what it was, but found myself pacing in the hours before kickoff. The nerves were obviously warranted. A lot of comparisons have been made to Miami from a year ago, leading into this game with Wake Forest. I cant buy them. This week will be different because it has to be. We have been warned. We have been through this “host a P5 program” at Kidd Brewer before. The Mountaineers probably played the worst game of the season last weekend. It has to get better and maybe it was a perfect time for a wake up call. I’m confident in saying that Kidd Brewer will be a much different place to play for Wake than it was when they visited Chestnut Hill in Massachusetts. The Deacons will likely be playing their best opponent of the young season as well. No offense to Presbyterian, Boston College, and Utah State. They arent exactly football hotbeds. They dont have the athletes that App has. Besides Wake limiting the opposing quarterbacks they have played, those signal callers they have faced have been pretty bad against everyone. Presbyterian QB Ben Cheek completed 2/9 passes for 41 yards vs. the Deacs. This season Cheek has still completed just 33% of his throws for 204 yards in three games, and he is their starter. Same story for Boston College. They played two guys behind center against Wake. They were a combined 18/41 for just 163 yards, which is under four yards per attempt. On the season, the primary BC starter is under 5 yards per attempt. That’s simply not good. Utah State: same stuff, different day. Their two QB’s combined for a 15/37 day last weekend, or a 40% completion rate. Their yards per attempt was higher than BC, right around 6 yards per, but that was buoyed by a 77 yard passing touchdown. Take that out, and guess what, exactly four yards per attempt. I don’t think Wake has played a competent QB yet and I think App’s defense has too much pride and talent to roll over and let anyone drop forty points on them like Wake has done to their opponents this season. It’s going to be a hard fought game, but in the end, this Saturday is for Appalachian. 

The First Pick

Top Hats 22

Mountaineers 27

Appalachian Football @ Texas State

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Appalachian State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-1, 0-0 SBC)

Saturday, September 16th, 2017 7pm est
TV/Video: ESPN3
Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN
Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Surface: Fieldturf Duraspine Pro
Capacity: 30,000
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 68.77
Texas State: 46.29
Home: 2.41
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 20 points (rounded)
Sportsbook: App State -23
Series: App State leads 2-0
Last meeting: App State 35, Texas State 10, November 5th, 2016
         
         College football’s preseason is over and its time to for the real games to start. The games that determine a conference champion and defines where your team plays in the postseason if they deserve it. For the first time in Appalachian’s history, they will play a football game in the state of Texas. It was not long ago, the Mountaineers had not won a game east of the Mississippi River, but it’s inclusion in the Sun Belt has allowed for wins in Idaho, New Mexico and Louisiana. Hopefully that trend continues for the Mountaineers in conference play. Texas State is on an upswing, but its been a slow process for Appalachian alum Everett Withers. They’ve installed an offense and defense that resembles what the Mountaineers are currently running. The talent is not completely there, but similarly to what Appalachian faced a few years ago, they are playing younger players who just lack experience. Eventually they’ll catch up, but it will take a lot of work to learn how to win, especially for a program whose last winning season was in 2014. That season did not result in bowl berth for the Bobcats, and the bottom fell out in the last two seasons, winning only five games in that span. Appalachian looks to stay the course and keep piling up wins in Sun Belt play as the season wears on. Before 2017 concludes, the Bobcats will likely trip someone up, just not this weekend. 

         Texas State started off the season with a win over Houston Baptist, an FCS school in the Southland Conference, which includes the likes of McNeese State, Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas. That game was a little closer than it should have been, as the Bobcats edged out the Huskies by nine points. Houston Baptist had a Sagarin rating in the twenties, and Texas State should have won more comfortably. Colorado disposed of Texas State with ease last weekend. The Buffaloes were 36 points favorites, but failed to cover in a 37-3 final. Texas State only trailed 14-0 at halftime before Colorado got serious and put them away with seventeen third quarter points. 

         In both games, Texas State managed to eclipse the 150 yard rushing mark. They ran the ball 41 times vs Houston Baptist and 47 times versus Colorado. Last year, the Bobcats couldn’t run the ball if they wanted to. App held them to 14 rushing yards on 28 carries. This sudden improvement is noticeable. Where Texas State continues to struggle is passing the ball. With only 262 yards in the air in two games, to go along with two interceptions thrown and zero touchdown passses, the Bobcats are still a work in progress on the offensive side of the ball. 

            Damian Williams is one of the Bobcat quaterbacks, transferring in from Mississippi State as a graduate. He appeared in six games in both 2013 and 2014, redshirted in 2015, and played in five contests in 2016. Williams is dual-threat quarterback who is fourth on the team with 47 rushing yards and is the only quarterback to throw in both contests this season. Freshman Willie Jones III, has also played in both contests, but stuck to running the ball vs Houston Baptist. Jones completed both his passes vs Colorado, but was also sacked twice. 

           The Bobcat running backs are a mixed bag. A quick look shows three backs are getting the majority of the carries. Anthony Taylor has 85 yards on sixteen carries, with a long of 55. Take out that long run, and you have fifteen carries for thirty yards, or two yards a carry. It’s the same story for Anthony Smith, 82 yards on 12 carries, with a long of 48. Take out the max, and you have eleven carries for 34 yards, which equates to just over three per carry. Robert Brown Jr does it a little differently, with the most carries among running backs with 22 for 73 yards. His ten yard long does not affect his average of 3.3 yards per tote.                            

            Taylor Lamb nearly had a perfect game in the air (12/15 327 yards, 5 TD’s). Sometimes you don’t complete 80% of your passes in practice. Just to put this performance in perspective, Lamb threw a touchdown pass for every three attempts he dropped back, and every 2.4 attempts he completed a pass. The five touchdown passes were a career high, eclipsing games versus Texas State (oh!) in 2016, Old Dominion and Arkansas State in 2015 in which he threw for four touchdowns in each game. It was only his fourth 300-yard passing game of his career, but we know he is as equally dangerous on the ground. However, Lamb was quiet on the ground, likely by design, with only 9 yards vs Savannah State. Lamb had averaged 71 yards per game on the ground over the last seven games. Last week also gave Lamb 18 straight games with at least 100 yards passing. The game propelled Lamb over 7500 yards passing in his Appalachian career.

         The Mountaineer defense was incredibly impressive. Savannah State managed just 114 total yards and only converted one of its thirteen third down attempts. The Tigers ran fifty-one plays and gained roughly 2.2 yards per play, while earning just six first downs. Twenty-nine Mountaineers assisted on a tackle over the course of the game and three sacks were recorded by four relatively unknown Mountaineers. Caleb Spurlin and Demetrius Taylor each had one, while Cameron Pack & Josh Houser combined for another.

        Moving the ball on a stout Mountaineer defense will be the biggest challenge for Texas State on Saturday. The commitment to the run for Texas State is admirable, but faces a hungry front seven from Appalachian. Outside of a couple long runs given up at Georgia, the Mountaineers have been extremely steady in the early going. The Apps have held its first two opponents to a combined 3.9 yards per rush, and are likely better than that this weekend. Getting Texas State in a long yardage situation on third down seems like a good strategy for a team that struggles to throw downfield and has converted just six of its twenty-nine third downs on the young season. Coach Withers mentioned earlier this week that he wants to makes teams one dimensional as a defefensive strategy, so their focus will be on trying to stop the Mountaineer running game, and forcing Taylor Lamb to throw the ball. If I were coach, I would be careful trying to sneak up a safety in run support. Lamb showed last week what happens when you get overzealous and give him an open throwing lane or a free running tight end. Lamb finished and did so in quick order. Just when you expect both tight ends to stay in and block, one of them releases and the coverage doesn’t have time to rotate. The wishing well at the San Marcos Outlets might be full of Coach Withers maroon pennies this week if he thinks he can slow down a team that ripped his group for 303 ground yards and four passing touchdowns a season ago. 

           

The First Pick

Kitties 14

Mountaineers 35

Appalachian Football vs Savannah State

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Savannah State (0-0, 0-0 MEAC) @ Appalachian State (0-1, 0-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, September 9th, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Field Turf

Capacity: 24,150 (est)

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.75

Savannah State: 13.03

Home: 2.41

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 58 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: n/a

Series: Appalachian State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 41, Savannah State 6, September 17th, 2011

         
        Occasionally, it’s not your day. Forget about how well you prepared, how rested or how healthy, or what you had for breakfast. Sometimes that moment you walk into work, someone says something to you the wrong way, or messes up the report despite telling them how important it was to make it right. For whatever reason, it just doesn’t work out. So you rise and grind one more day, guzzle coffee the same way and hope the result is different. That is essentially what happened to the Mountaineers last Saturday. For every positive play, a negative closely followed. Now it does not matter what happens this weekend. No amount of touchdowns or scoring margin will help us change anything that has happened in the past. But we can look forward to the future. The athletic department has installed it’s largest set of temporary bleachers for the 2017 season and oh yeah, a brand spanking new video board awaits the fans this Saturday. This weekend also presents itself as a tune up game before conference play starts next weekend. It’s the last chance for the Mountaineers to get it right before the games really start counting. The foremost goal for this program every season is to win the conference championship and this season, it starts a week earlier than it ever has while Appalachian has been in the Sun Belt. One more game for certain true freshman to get the kinks out and gel with their new teammates and one last first time to start a season for outgoing seniors who have been a part of one the most memorable runs in program history.          

         Savannah State presents a bit of an unknown quotient for the Mountaineers. They only played ten games last year, and have yet to play a game this season. Last year the Tigers won three games, none of them on the road. They lost 54-0 in their opener at Georgia Southern in 2016, before anyone knew how terrible the Eagles were. The Tigers have won a total of seven games since the last time they played Appalachian in 2011, so getting three wins last year was a major improvement. Second year head coach Erik Raeburn was 78-13 at Wabash College, a Division III school located in Indiana, and led his squad to five playoff berths in eight seasons. 

           The strength of the Tigers is more likely their defense. Despite only two defenders being named to the preseason MEAC third team on defense, those two defenders made the second team last season at the end of the year. They like to blitz and will do whatever it takes to get to the quarterback. The offense leaves something to be desired, averaging just 14 points in 2016, and rushing for fewer yards last season as a team than App State’s own Jalin Moore. The Tigers managed just 12.1 first downs per game and just 3.9 yards per play over the course of the season. Expect improvements from Savannah State as they know the offense needs work. Quarterback TJ Bell returns as a dual threat option and will handle a load of the offensive burden. 

           Last week the Mountaineers were without two of their main playmakers in the passing game due to injuries. Having known that last week, might have made this prediction a little different. Although passing the ball is not a huge part of the App offense, it is a part that needs to be a threat. As the first half grew on last week, it was evident App had zero intentions of throwing the ball vertically down the field, opting for safer attempts to the sideline or to running backs in the flat. A vertical threat is essential and without it, the Mountaineers became very predictable as the game progressed. It appears that Shaedon Meadors might be out for an extended time while Darryton Evans could be back much sooner. That leaves a lot heavy lifting in the hands of some true freshman to get a lot of experience early in their career. 

          Because the passing game was so inept and careful, it took a major toll on the App ground game. Georgia made sure that Jalin Moore didn’t beat them. Much like last year, after Moore replaced an injured Marcus Cox, he was a little impatient waiting for his running lanes to develop. Timing is everything in the zone blocking scheme and Moore seemed too excited last weekend. Sometimes it takes a few games to really start clicking. I would expect to see Moore get back to form this weekend, and hopefully we can see some depth at the running back position later in the game.          

         

          There is not a ton to be said about analyzing a game that will more than likely lead to a very lopsided score. Before those who panic get my attention, I am fully aware that Howard beat UNLV this past weekend. Yes, that same Howard the Mountaineers have played in the past, but UNLV is nothing near as talented as the App State is. If UNLV were to come to Boone, you are more than likely looking at a three score margin. Some indexes have UNLV rated behind several, as in closer to twenty, FCS schools. Its not happening this weekend. Just as App can be a bought game for some schools, it works the same for Savannah State. I would like to see the Tigers win the rest of their games, after Saturday of course. The question is not how, but by how much. I do not believe in the fifteen years I have been writing this little Wednesday night think piece that I have seen the Sagarin rankings have such a large spread between App and its opponent. When App faced Campbell in 2014, the expected margin was 34 points. The Mountaineers went on to win 66-0 in a game that was interrupted by a severe thunderstorm. In 2011, the Apps had 49.5 point expected margin, and didn’t get there against Savannah State. I can’t bring myself to pick something outrageous, but if App is running base plays and the Tigers cant stop them, it will get out of control quickly. Usually the App coaching staff is not one to run up a score for the sake of it. We tend to get the game under control and coast. I feel like that is a more likely outcome. Give me the Mountaineers by six …. touchdowns. 

           

The First Pick

Tiggers 6

Mountaineers 48