Appalachian Football @ Louisiana-Monroe

Appalachian State (5-3, 4-0 Sun Belt) vs Louisiana-Monroe (3-5, 3-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 4th, 2017 3:00pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

JPS Field at Malone Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf Revolution

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 64.28

Monroe: 52.05

Home: 2.14

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -9.5

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 42, Monroe 17, November 19th, 2016

          What is they say about winning? Plenty of people have said many things about winning over the years. Vince Lombardi called it a “habit”. Lombardi called it the “only thing”. Kareem-Abdul Jabbar said you can’t win unless you learn how to lose. Mia Hamm was quoted, “Whoever said winning isn’t everything, never won anything”. All those are great, but my favorite line ever is by Vin Scully: Losing feels worse than winning feels good. That nails it every time. As Mountaineer football fans, over the years, we have walked out of a lot more stadiums with a smile on our face, than we have with a frown. But those frowns, they are the worst. They can ruin a lot more than the next few minutes, but sometimes the next few hours, and sometimes it can linger for a couple days even. Luckily, there are more games to play. Strike that. Thankfully there are more games to play. Truth is, the Mountaineers have been tight roping it for the last month. All it was going to take was a slight lean one way or the other, and it was going to come crashing down. But, there is plenty left at stake. Plenty of time to pick up the pieces, and plenty of time to figure out how to get back up and start the next streak. The pride of Appalachian will not allow this little bump in the road to get the best of us.

         Although the Monroe season started with losses to Memphis (7-1), and Southern Miss (5-3), they looked good in those losses and it appeared that Matt Viator was turning it around. A game with Florida State was cancelled as well, and is doubtful to be played unless the Seminoles need a win for bowl eligibility. After that start, the Warhawks followed with three straight wins in Sun Belt play, most notably over Louisiana, and were averaging nearly 51 points per game in those contests. But then, the bottom fell out. Three straight losses followed and the Warhawks were scoring less than 28 points per contest. Their defense was allowing fewer points, but the offense was not sustaining their earlier success.

          The story for Monroe is their offense, plain and simple. The Warhawks are at the top of Sun Belt in many offensive categories, including 2nd in scoring, total offense, and rushing offense. They rank third in the Sun Belt in passing offense. Freshman Marcus Green is second in the conference in all purpose yards, and is the only freshman in the top ten of that category. He does it all, returning kickoffs and punts, and has carried the load in the air, leading the team with 455 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Not far behind Green is quarterback Caleb Evans, who has 1,710 yards passing, and   nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. Where Evans gets you is on the ground. He’s their leading rusher with 412 yards and nine more touchdowns. Evans makes them go, but is not perfect. He an be found lobbing up passes lazily, and its a wonder more have not been intercepted. Balls floating around in the secondary could mean big plays for the App State secondary.

         For all the good that Monroe delivers on the offensive side of the ball, their defense is the exact opposite. They are gruesomely bad. They are 12th of twelve teams in pass defense, and total defense and opponents first downs. They are 11th in run defense and 9th in scoring defense. In two specific games I was able to watch, the Warhawk defenders appeared uninterested in pursuing ball carriers and their inability to tackle was almost embarrassing. In the past, Monroe was actually decent on defense, but it was their offense that was the reason they struggled.

         With eight games played this season, four on the road, and four at home, an ugly trend has reared its head with the App State offense. In road games, the offense has become incredibly predictable. How predictable you ask? Although Taylor Lamb has only attempted 16 more passes at home than on the road this season, he’s completed just three more passes. The difference is the kind of passes. Lamb’s yards per attempt at home is four whole yards higher than his road split. It’s hard to explain how the play selection could be that different. Last year that difference was one yard, which is still a huge discrepancy. But, Lamb also threw for over 300 more yards on the road last season than at home. In 2017, Lamb has thrown for nearly 600 more yards in home games, which is a 900 yard swing from one year to the next. This is not the result of a one game or two skewing the data. This is a complete flip in philosophy.

          So here we are again. The Mountaineers will take to the road for the second straight week for the only time this season. In every road game, the Mountaineers have failed to score first. Opponents have scored 71 combined points before the Mountaineers in such games. Monroe is not the type of team you want to chase all afternoon. They will wear you down. You have to get them uncomfortable, getting them away from their ground game. If the Mountaineers cannot find some offense this weekend, I’m not sure when they will. Last week was another example of fantastic adjustments by the defense to give the offense a chance to climb back, but they fell short in the final two minutes, allowing UMass to drive 54 yards in twelve plays for the tying field goal. It was the longest scoring drive the defense gave up. The defense will give up some points this weekend. That’s not in doubt. The question is whether or not the offense can score enough. Sure, thats the backbone of every game in any sport that is ever played. For me, Taylor Lamb and the Mountaineer passing game has to step up and extend the field. Monroe runs a 4-2-5 defensive set, that likes to pressure the line of scrimmage, more out of annoyance than to make a big play. Those passes App dropped out of the backfield last weekend need to be caught. Obviously the ugly parts of the game, penalties, and turnovers can’t be like last weekend either. This is as big as it gets this weekend for the Mountaineers as far as confidence goes for the rest of the season. I expect App to respond in a big way, 

The First Pick

Former Indians 20

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Massachusetts

Appalachian State (5-2, 4-0 Sun Belt) vs Massachusetts (1-6, FBS Independent)

Saturday, October 28th, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: NESN/Eleven Sports

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 17,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 64.23

UMass: 53.34

Home: 2.18

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 9 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -4.5

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 28, UMass 17, December 15th, 2006

          The Chanticleers weren’t quitters. They fought hard in a game where they were basically outmatched. After falling in a 14-0 hole, they easily could have rolled over, taken their beating and strutted their way back toward the low country. Not only did they own the second quarter on the way to a halftime lead, they made an ugly score look respectable late in the game. Both teams left points on the field, and for Appalachian, that has become a novel normal. Whether it’s missed field goals or inexplicably attempting a two point conversion, eventually the Mountaineers will suffer from one of these gaffes. Might not be this week, this season, or next, but we as fans must take the good with the bad and trust the work that goes on behind the scenes. Those that work hard every day want to fix it as much as we want it fixed. This weekend presents a different challenge. The Apps step out of conference play and accept a summons from an old friend from a decade ago. A friend without a conference, without a real bowl tie-in and without a true rival they play yearly. The last time these two played, there was quite a bit more at stake, but even then, UMass was the challenger, as they will also be considered on Saturday. They have nothing to lose,, while the Mountaineers need to keep the train on the tracks. 

          Massachusetts sports a similar look as Coastal Carolina when you glance at their schedule. Sure, Coastal had a couple games where they got beat pretty badly, but the Minutemen have had zero such games. Of their six losses, four were by one possession and two were by ten points. They can hang around. Forget their loss to Coastal Carolina in early September, which seems like ages ago. Every team has a different slant now, especially Appalachian.

          The Minutemen have the complexion of some teams that Appalachian has lost to in the past. Look no further than early playoff exits at hands of Villanova and Maine. Now this is not a lazy comparison of teams from the northeastern part of the country that play a different brand of football. Typically, the speed isn’t there, but the size is definitely present. They will not sneak up on you, but they will line up right across from you and force their will. UMass has a 270 pound fullback and a starting offensive line that averages 324 pounds and has only one lineman in the two-deep listed at 6’3″ or shorter. Add to that three tight ends listed at 6’5″ and 250 pounds. Prior to last weekend, this mammoth line had just three 100-yard rushing games to their credit, but exploded for 320 yards last week over Georgia Southern. The flipside of being so big on the line, the Minutemen have given up 32 sacks in seven games. 

         Massachusetts has played from behind a lot this season, which has actually helped them constantly work on their passing game. But, in the same breathe, they have been very successful in doing so. Typically a team that plays from behind a lot, you’ll see a lot of interceptions thrown. Not with the Minutemen. Their 16 touchdown passes to only two interceptions is pretty astonishing. They like to feed their tight ends who’ll occupy the middle of the field, a spot where App struggled last week to contain Coastal Carolina. They are about as dangerous as an offense can be, they just do not have the results and the confidence to show for it. 

          Just about every time Taylor Lamb has had a rough game, he responds with an excellent performance and silences the haters. Over the years, Lamb has not received the credit he deserves, as a lot of that gone the way of the defense that backs him up or to his great running backs he has been blessed with. When he was younger, he had to develop chemistry with older receivers, and now that he is the old guy, he’s had to adjust to connecting with younger targets. Lamb is just a baller, plain and simple. If he is called to run, thats what he’ll do. If his arm is needed to save the day, he’s ready for that as well. He was seven yards away from breaking two records set by Armanti Edwards in the same game. Who saw that coming so quickly?

          UMass had three weeks to prepare for the beatdown they gave to Georgia Southern last weekend. That is very rare to have that much time between games.  They were originally slated to face South Florida, but the game was rescheduled at the request of the American Athletic Conference in the wake of Hurricane Irma. That’s what can happen to you when you do not have a conference. So, UMass gets a mid season break and adds a game at the end of the season with FIU. Generally, I like playing teams that have recently come off of a big game, whether that be their first win of the season, running up a bunch of yards, scoring a bunch of points or being the beneficiary of several turnovers. UMass did all of those things last weekend. They’ll be facing a different kind of team this weekend. Georgia Southern’s struggles have been well documented, and plenty of things were going on off the football field as opposed to on it. App State has had its struggles this season, but for the most part, have overcome for them.. The Mountaineers have shown this season their ability to keep their head down, keep battling, by making adjustments and sticking with the plan. UMass will attempt to confuse the App State running game by stacking the linebackers in the gaps, and it ill be up to App to get to the perimeter as quick as possible. A game played outside the hashes will favor Appalachian. Keep an eye on Marcus Williams Jr with a full week  of practice under his belt if Jalin Moore can’t play. Hell give UMass a look they haven’t seen yet. 

The First Pick

Colonials 28

Mountaineers 40

Appalachian Football vs Coastal Carolina

Appalachian State (4-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) vs Coastal Carolina (1-5, 0-3 Sun Belt)
Saturday, October 21st, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.26

Coastal Carolina: 44.45

Home: 2.07

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 25 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -24

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 55, Coastal Carolina 14, September 29th, 2012
   

          I’m still not quite sure what happened last Saturday. Wait a minute, thats exactly how we started this thing off last week. But the statement still applies to this week. Let’s run with it. Overcoming a deficit in a football game is one thing. Overcoming a twenty point deficit is another. Coming from behind on the road to win is really difficult. Doing all those things, all while having scored zero points in the first half is pretty miraculous. The second half could not have started any worse. An Idaho interception on a tipped pass could have spelled doom for the Mountaineers chances. But the Apps never wavered. In true Mountaineer fashion, they hunkered down and got to work. The rest is history. One long drive led to another. Fourth downs were converted time and time again. The defense, which didnt quit as the half began, decided to bring pain on the Idaho offense. Quarterbacks were sacked, and balls were fumbled, almost mysteriously. The result was another heart stopping victory, the third in as many games in Sun Belt play. An unblemished record in conference play may have been expected by some at this point, but the path was not one anyone could have predicted. The ride has been fun, and we’re only halfway home. 

           We would have never guessed a decade ago that Coastal Carolina would join a conference with Appalachian. It was more likely that conference would have still been in the FCS. But here are the Chanticleers, in their first full year in FBS football. The growing pains have been plenty for Coastal. Their season in 2017, started similarly to how Appalachian started their FBS journey in 2014. Coastal sits at 1-5 , and that lone win is over a very bad Massachusetts team that has yet to win a game. They have been in several games, and have been blown out just twice, last weekend at Arkansas State, and earlier in the season to Western Illinois. They have hung around with UL-Monroe, who is a team you have to outscore this season and also with Georgia State. In both games, they never quit, even after being down multiple scores, and kept it within one score at the end.         

          Coastal is in the middle of arguably is toughest stretch of the season. The Arkansas State-App State double on the road is a daunting task. Prior to the season, Coastal had an outside chance of finishing in the middle of the Sun Belt, but those plans were sidetracked when head coach Joe Moglia had to take a medical leave, and Jamey Chadwell from Charleston Southern, was thrust to into the head coach role. Chadwell was the coach as CSU when they defeated the Mountaineers in 2013 during their final year in the FCS. That was Scott Satterfield’s first year as a head coach as well. 

          The offense that Chadwell ran in 2013 is still with him and his Chanticleers. They love formations with two backs in the backfield, and rarely run a play without a fake, some misdirection or an option run. It’s the true definition of the run-pass option attack. Defenses must be disciplined in their scheme and keep their eyes on their own assignments. The idea is similar to triple option football, but with a more traditional passing game mixed in. It leads to a very balanced offense for the Chanticleers. They do run a little bit more than they pass. Their individual numbers don’t look great across the board, but they do an admirable job with what they have. The phrase, “The whole is greater than the sum of their parts” fits this team perfectly. 

          Appalachian was very far from from perfect on Saturday. Understatement of the year, I know. The fact is they were killed with poor field position in the first half, and as we learned in the days after the game, Idaho had been prepping to beat the Mountaineers in every single practice since the end of last season. It’s not easy being the top dog . Everyone is trying to beat you, especially the likes of Idaho and New Mexico State, who’ll likely never ever get that chance again. The individual performances were not fantastic against Idaho, but luckily Ike Lewis saved the day. His one headed catch of a Taylor “Not Tyler” Lamb pass was beautifully secured and Lewis did the rest. That’s always been the issue with Ike, makes the routine plays look difficult, and the tough plays look easy. But, when he gets a hold of it, he can be electric. He has suddenly become App’s lone home run play guy, as Thomas Hennigan and Malik Williams’ yards per catch have dipped under ten this past weekend. 

          As if App was not already dealing with enough injuries on offense, they were dealt a huge blow with news that broke late Wednesday. Terrence Upshaw suffered an injury that will require surgery, and will end his season and his career at Appalachian. At times, Upshaw appeared to be the better runner in certain situations and his loss will certainly be felt. How his role is filled will be interesting to discover on Saturday. Back to the game at hand. It’s painfully obvious, App needs to find a way to start the game better. At this point, it has not hurt the Mountaineers yet, but its inevitable that it will at some point. The Mountaineers have been a much stronger second half team, mostly out of necessity. The game that was most interesting to me that was a good comparison as to how this game will be decided was when Coastal hosted Georgia State. The Panthers opened the game with a kickoff return touchdown, and cruised to a 21-7 first half lead. However, the Chants clawed back before falling 27-21. Georgia State has a decent defense, but their offense can be lacking at times. Sound familiar? A lot of folks think that Coastal might be one of the worst teams in the FBS. But at the same time, they have not looked terrible all the time. I wouldnt be surprised by any result this weekend, and I’ll side with what is most likely to occur. Apps win, but covering that big spread will be tough. 

The First Pick

Beach Chickens 20

Mountaineers 37

Appalachian Football @ Idaho

Appalachian State (3-2, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Idaho (2-3, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 14th, 2017 5pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kibbie Dome

Surface: RealGrass Pro

Capacity: 16,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.09

Idaho: 54.68

Home: 1.97

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -13

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 37, Idaho 19, October 22nd, 2016

        I’m still not quite sure what happened last Saturday. A game that was really sputtering along for three quarters suddenly became a shootout that was going to come down to one play made or not made by either side. Fortunately, Eric Boggs lays out to trip up a New Mexico State receiver on fourth down, a review finally favors the Mountaineers, and the ball changes hands and Jalin Moore ices it. There were several times in that fourth quarter that many fans surely had the same feeling in their gut that I did. “Uh, if we aren’t careful, we’re gonna lose this one.” Both teams seemed to be playing for the fourth quarter. New Mexico State went from a quick strike offense, to a ball controlling unit in hopes to wear out the App defense. The Mountaineer offense stubbornly kept forcing the ball to the running backs, in hopes that the big one would finally hit. Eventually they did, as Jalin Moore’s final six carries went for 129 yards, nearly half of his total. Next up is another team exiting the Sun Belt looking for their shot at the defending champ. Even worse, App has beaten these guys three times already, and perhaps, like New Mexico State, we’ll never play these guys again. This is Idaho’s last stand in big boy football and they’ll be looking to sack one last big time opponent before their days are numbered in the Sun Belt. 

           Idaho’s season in 2016 could not have been scripted any better, outside of the inevitable sendoff from the Sun Belt, the Vandals finished the regular season at 8-4 and went on to win the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl over Colorado State 61-50 in a non-overtime game. Things haven’t been as smooth in 2017, as the Vandals beat Sacramento State 28-6, but then fell to UNLV, who lost to Howard, and Western Michigan. After a double-overtime win over now 1-4 South Alabama, Idaho got two weeks to prepare for a Louisiana team that was giving up the most points in the FBS. Idaho managed just a touchdown and three field goals and fell to the Cajuns, a team they had beaten a year ago. Idaho is now floundering with a 2-3 record, and the path to six wins looks daunting. The Vandals still have to play App, and have road games at Mizzou, Troy and New Mexico State.

         Matt Linehan has been the Idaho starting quarterback essentially since he stepped on campus. He’s been above average overall, but has not had the surrounding talent he deserves. This season is no different. Linehan has basically one receiver that over half his attempts go to and that’s Jacob Sannon. Linehan is up to 1075 passing yards on the season, which is well off pace for his previous three seasons. He’s averaging 215 yards a game in 2017, and his next lowest total was his freshman season, when he averaged 230 yards per game. His high water mark was when he threw for 273 yards in the win over South Alabama. He’ll have a shot to get to 10,000 career passing yards this weekend. In three games against the Mountaineers, Linehan has completed 61% of his passes for 745 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. 

          Back to Jacob Sannon, his 33 catches leads the team by a good bit. His next closest competition is Alfonso Onunwor who has 17 catches. Sannon is a senior who is finally getting his chance to shine. Eventually, his final season in Moscow will be his most productive, as he has already achieved career marks in yards and receptions. Aaron Duckworth has also been around awhile for the Vandals. Also a senior, Duckworth is averaging six yards per carry on the ground and leads the team with 439 rushing yards. He’ll have an outside chance at rushing for 1,000 yards this year. 

          Hey, look, that Mountaineer running attack got its groove back a bit. The offensive line paved the way for 350 yards on the ground on just thirty-eight attempts. What it came down to was continuing to work on big plays. Of those thirty-eight attempts, nearly a third of them, thirteen to be exact, went for 10 yards or more. Moore had seven such runs, Taylor Lamb three, and Terrance Upshaw three. Seven of Moore’s carries went for ten or more yards and accounted for 212 of his 241 yard total. It might not have been pretty the entire game, but when the stars aligned, they did in a big way. I’d expect to see more of the same this weekend against the 91st ranked run defense in football. 

          Nobody could have said they had seen an App State football team successfully secure six interceptions in one game prior to last weekend. Unfortunately, the Apps needed every last one of those interceptions to win the game. That doesn’t happen often. The so-called “double hat trick” or “Six-Pick” game comes at a perfect time. Idaho, which likes to the throw the ball more than most in the Sun Belt, is reminded this week on film what can happen when you mess with the Legion of Boone. Last year, Clifton Duck snagged a pair of interceptions off of Linehan. Josh Thomas corralled the other. And now enter Tae Hayes, who was one acrobatic play away from an unheard of four interceptions last Saturday. Combine that with a Idaho passing that game looks a little off at the moment. Certainly they could get it together this weekend, but it doesn’t look promising. Idaho has struggled to score this season like they did in 2016, where they hit the 30 point mark on seven occasions. This season the Vandals have scored 16 points twice, 28 points twice, and needed nine overtime points in Mobile to get to 29 points in that win. In this series, App has won by margins of 17, 18 and 27 points. If anything, App has proven in it’s two Sun Belt wins that a lot can change in a years time, and that everything is earned on the football field. But, Idaho has not shown much of doing anything exceptionally well this season. They are a true middle of the road team in 2017, and I think Appalachian has more than enough firepower on both sides of the ball to win this one. 

The First Pick

Starches 18

Mountaineers 33

Appalachian Football vs New Mexico State

Appalachian State (2-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) vs New Mexico State (2-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 7th, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.40

New Mexico State: 58.11

Home: 1.94

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -10.5

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 37, New Mexico State 7, November 26th, 2016

          The last two weeks, have felt like years. Bye weeks can be like that, forget what happened in the previous game. Forget that the last opponent was a long lost rival, a game that had been eagerly anticipated, and ended with an unfortunate thud. I’ll never look at the number 19 the same ever again. The 19th amendment of the US Constitution gave women the right to vote, but I’ll be thinking about Wake Forest. Adele’s debut album was titled “19”, but I’ll be thinking about untimely penalties against Wake Forest. The atomic number of Potassium is 19, which has the oddest symbol of the periodic table; the letter “K”. In that football game we all love, the letter K stands for kicker, and of course the kicks we didn’t convert against Wake Forest. So the next time you eat a banana, you’ll think about Wake Forest. Try and forget that for the time being, and lets turn our focus to an improved New Mexico State team that looks to make a statement on their way out of the Sun Belt. Their sites are set on a bowl game, and they have an offense that can make that happen, especially in a down year for the Sun Belt. It’s rare that Appalachian loses a Homecoming game, but the Aggies are just the kind of team that can make it interesting. 

          Even though New Mexico State sits below .500 on the season, their losses are extremely respectable. Arizona State & Troy were lucky enough to get by in one possession games, and Arkansas got up early and held serve for the remainder of the game last weekend. The wins the Aggies have under their belt are against New Mexico and UTEP. Two teams that mean so much from a rivalry perspective, that wins over those schools were included in Doug Martin’s new contract that didn’t increase his salary but was very incentive laden. A victory over either school gives Martin a $5,000 bonus. He’ll also receive an additional $20,000 bonus for six wins or a bowl invite. 

          New Mexico State was trending up last year. Remember, the Mountaineers and Aggies teed it up in one of the final games of the 2016 season. New Mexico State beat Louisiana last year, and should have beaten Georgia Southern. They played South Alabama within a touchdown on the road in their final game. This improvement was in the works last season. Now they had their blowout games, but that hasn’t been the case this year. They lost to Arkansas by 18 points. In 2016, they had six such losses of 18 points or more.  

          The Aggies employ a typical three headed monster on offense, a tall pocket passer behind center, a very experienced running back and big target to throw to down the field. Tyler Rogers missed the App game last year due to a injury in practice the week of the game. Rogers is in the top ten in the country in several passing categories. Not in the Sun Belt, in the country. This is a team that likes to toss the ball around the yard. Rogers trails only UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph in passing yards. He’s fifth nationwide with 15 touchdown passes. His favorite target, Jaleel Scott has 543 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Scott can catch the ball all over the field and has sure hands. His lanky frame doesn’t have blazing speed, but his wide catch radius makes it easy on Rogers to find him. Larry Rose III ranks in the top ten for active FBS running backs in his career. Despite averaging just over four yards a carry, Rose III also an impact with his receiving skills, as he has snagged twenty-two passes this season. As Rose III goes, so do the Aggies. He has 38 carries for 243 yards in two Aggie wins, and just 33 carries for 154 yards in their losses.  

        Appalachian took the lead away from Wake Forest on three different occasions the last time out. They had nine more first downs, nearly two hundred more yards passing, and still outpossesed the Deacons by nearly eleven and a half minutes. It was a game that featured fewer than forty points, but only four punts, and zero turnovers. Taylor Lamb had a big day, with 372 passing yards, spread out among eight different receivers, all catching at least two passes. The Mountaineer running game is still a work in progress, but Terrance Upshaw worked hard for 86 yards whole Jalin Moore struggled and was clearly not 100% healthy. 

          A lot of the talk leading up this game has centered around the New Mexico State offense, and how much better they are. A good offense can help a defense improve just by default really. More time to rest and adjust, and you can pay defense a lot looser with the lead. While Appalachian was resting last weekend, preparing for the Aggies, the New Mexico State defense spent 41 minutes on the field defending the Razorbacks. Arkansas churned out a balanced 494 yards of total offense. At halftime of that game, Coach Doug Martin was interviewed, and mentioned that he was surprised how much Arkansas threw the ball. Immediately, all I could think about was him perhaps saying the exact same thing the following week. Out of necessity, the Mountaineers have been putting the ball up in the air more often. Now, that New Mexico State defense doesn’t really do anything exceptionally well. They are ranked in the mid-80’s in total defense, which is below average, and that team has a lot of travel miles on them between games. They have forced a few turnovers, but most of those came in their blowout of UTEP where they snatched five interceptions. UTEP started 0-5 this season and their coach just resigned. To quickly summarize, that is where this game is going to be won and lost. I have no doubt that New Mexico State might get a bunch of yards, but they have to be able to finish. App State has one of the best red-zone defenses in the country, allowing just five touchdowns in twelve attempts on the young season. The Aggies will have some drives, but App has also done well in forcing three and outs all season. The Apps must cut off those drives quickly and keep the New Mexico State offense off the field. 

The First Pick

Toy Guns 21

Mountaineers 34