2/19/2012

I believe Appalachian will be favored in this game by 3 points. The Bulldogs have not been favored all season long, and have not played a team with a likeness of Appalachian at home in a couple weeks. The Bulldogs had lost 11 in a row before winning on the road in Chattanooga on Saturday. The Citadel is 5-2 at home this season ATS versus conference opponents, with those covers coming against Davidson, Georgia Southern, Wofford, Greensboro and Samford. Their losses are to Elon and Furman. Appalachian is 3-4 ATS on the road this season against the SoCon. Their wins were over Furman, Samford and Chattanooga.

02/22/2012

I was a little off here, but still very close to nailing the spread. Appalachian opened as four point favorites. In the last week or so, the lines in Appalachian games have moved around a bit. I could see this sneaking up to the 4.5 to 5 point range. The Citadel is not a good team, but they got off the snide with their win at Chattanooga. I like the even number here because it brings a push into play. One website posts that 64% of the action is heading Appalachian’s direction. I like the Mountaineers as well. They should dominate in the rebounding category. The Citadel is last in the conference in rebounding margin, and just gave up over twenty offensive rebounds to Western Carolina last week, and thirteen to Chattanooga on Saturday. That should lead to plenty easy buckets on the offensive end for the Mountaineers.

Postgame:

The Mountaineers were able to dictate their pace for the first eight minutes of the ball game before The Citadel took control of the tempo and cruised to a 62-51 win. Appalachian was crushed on the boards, and shot terribly from behind the arc. The loss moves my record to 10-13 on the season.