App State Football @ Wyoming

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (2-1) @ Wyoming (2-1)

Saturday, September 23rd, 2023 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: CBS Sports Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

War Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 29,181

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.56

Wyoming: 67.34

Home: 2.23

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.99 points

VegasInsider Line: Wyoming -2.5

Series: Series Tied 1-1

Last Meeting: App State 31, Wyoming 13, October 3, 2015, Boone, NC

After three games to open the season in the state of North Carolina, the Mountaineers will hit the high road for the first time in 2023. Wyoming’s Mar Memorial Stadium is difficult to get to, and its elevation is the highest in all the land. Their homefield advantage is similar to one that the Mountaineers enjoy, albeit several thousand feet higher above sea level. This will be an interesting test for the Mountaineers as its the first flight of the season compared to a short drive to Chapel Hill two weeks ago. This is also important for any potential bowl scenarios, whether that be eligibility or placement. Those non-conference games against Gardner-Webb and East Carolina do not have the same juice as this one-off game against Wyoming before starting conference play. Additionally, the Cowboys are riding the momentum of beating Texas Tech and also hanging with the Texas Longhorns for the majority of the game. It will be important for App State to come out ready to play, but not so amped that they lose their fire before it even gets started.

The Craig Bohl tenure at Wyoming has been unlike his run at North Dakota State. Bohl won three national titles for the Bison before heading to Wyoming, where he has been for ten seasons. Excluding 2020, where Wyoming played only six games, Bohl has won 6 or more games every season for six seasons running. The only gripe from some Cowboys fans is that Wyoming has not won more than 8 games in any of those years. Bohl has been consistent, but to the point of just above average. Wyoming’s best season under Bowl was in 2016, but still managed just 8 wins despite 6 conference triumphs. Administration has been as patient as Bohl’s offenses have been. Other programs might have cut bait, but it seems Wyoming knows who they are and what they are up against. You fire a coach, and its possible you bottom out, and then your program chases those 6-8 wins a year they were accustomed to.

The Cowpokes are not going to wow anyone with a thrilling offense. They are pro-style in nature. Not the current pro-style offenses that you see today, but more like those pro offenses of 20-30 years ago. The statistics do not pop off the page. It’s never about what they do, but more importantly, how they do it. In their three games the season, Wyoming has been patient with the ground game. They averaged 3.9 yards per carry against Texas Tech, 4.4 yards against FCS Portland State, and 4.1 yards against Texas. Those numbers are the epitome of patience. As a team, Wyoming has 61 more yards rushing than Nate Noel. Three different players have led the Pokes in rushing in each game. In Week 1, it was quarterback Andrew Peasley who dashed for 68 yards on 15 carries. Sam Scott had 70 yards on 11 carries against Portland State and Harrison Waylee ran for 110 yards on 18 carries against Texas. Waylee did have a 62 yard scamper versus Texas. Essentially, he had 17 other attempts that went for just 48 yards.

Nate Noel is getting a lot of love, and deservedly so. Averaging 145 yards per game on the ground is a strong number through three games. Noel has hogged the workload, and has been producing to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry. As much as Noel is responsible for the quick offensive start, the balanced passing game for the Mountaineers is equally responsible. Seven different receivers have caught touchdown passes. Dashaun Davis and Kaedin Robinson are completely different players, yet they are separated by just one yard on the stat sheet. Both have caught exactly ten passes, two touchdowns, and their longest plays are also both 34 yards. Robinson has the yardage edge 154-153. Likewise, Christian Horn and swiss army knife Milan Tucker also have exactly 83 yards and a touchdown, with Horn having two more catches than Tucker.

A couple of fluke plays made the score a lot closer with East Carolina then it should have been. It was kind of the same story back in 2021. The 33-19 score two years ago was not that close, and neither was this 43-28 final from Saturday. That says a lot about your program and what expectations are on a week to week basis. Both teams are completely different than 2021, but some things just never change. The App State defense was only responsible for 14 points, and half those points came on the first drive when East Carolina started a quarterback for the first time. It’s understandable to be cautious, but the point here remains. After the first drive, the Mountaineers gave up just a mere 7 points. Turning the Pirates over three times via interception gave fans glimpses of what this defense can be. Joey Aguilar did throw a bad interception, but as long as he tosses a couple touchdown passes a game, or three as was the case Saturday, it will be mostly forgotten as long as those mistakes are not made over and over.

Wyoming has earned an early reputation this season as a team that controls the ball commits very few mistakes. In three games, the Cowboys have accumulated 100 minutes of possession. On the flip side the Mountaineers have controlled the clock for 96 minutes. The Cowboys have only committed nine penalties on the season as well. The Mountaineers have been flagged just thirteen times, which is something that really has not been talked about. Appalachian has never really been a team that worries about penalties. Sometimes you play with passion and get hustle penalties, which are unlike flags called for incorrect formations or shifts. Those should be avoided. However, if you do all the other things correctly, penalty flags shouldn’t come in to play. It’s part of the game. But the fact the Mountaineers have been decent in that area has only made the offense that much more dangerous. The Mountaineers have 16 offensive touchdowns compared to the Cowboys nine on the season. Excluding overtime scores, Wyoming has averaged 20.3 points per game. East Carolina may have the worst offense in Division I football. Wyoming’s is better, but its still a bottom 20 offense in football in terms of yards, and bottom third in terms of gained first downs. But that is kind of the point here. Wyoming does not care about the flash, they want the substance. The onus is on the Mountaineer defense to come up with stops and get the ball to the offense. The Cowboys have converted third downs into first downs at a 37% clip on the young season, which ranks in the bottom third of FBS. It’s the most important statistic on Saturday. Get the Cowboys off the field, or else they employ the same strategy the Mountaineers did against the Tar Heels a couple weeks ago.

The First Pick

Poking and Prodding 20

Mountaineers 28

App State Football vs East Carolina

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (1-1) vs East Carolina (1-1)

Saturday, September 16th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.14

East Carolina: 64.83

Home: 2.24

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.55 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -9.5

Series: App State leads 20-12

Last Meeting: App State 33, East Carolina 19, September 2, 2021, Charlotte, NC

There are several ways to look at it. You can hold your head high and be proud. You could also drag your feet for a couple hundred yards and wonder about another big fish that wiggled away. You might even do both of things at the same time. And then you hear the cries, whining and disrespect. From social media posts, to remarks made by those with the title head coach. “I’m proud of my football team” said one. “I’m glad we don’t have to play them again” said another. Those leaders who receive more praise than they deserve, and more criticism at their expense at same time. Only you can choose your leader. You can run with the guy who will run at your side into battle, or you can run and hide. The Mountaineers will never run and hide from a challenge, but embrace it and learn from it. This weekend will be another challenge. Traffic on the roads and entering the gates will be an adventure. There is going to be a ton of people in the High Country this weekend. A third consecutive in-state foe awaits the home team. Will you embrace it, or run away?

Coming into this season, East Carolina and App State had similar scenarios facing their team. The Pirates have a lot of new faces playing critical roles, and most of those were on the offensive side of the ball. Holton Ahlers exhausted his eligibility and Mason Garcia has been given the start for the first two games at quarterback. Filling in at running back, in place of Keaton Mitchell, has been Rahjai Harris. It’s been an uphill climb in these first two games for East Carolina in filling those holes. Ahlers and Mitchell are both on NFL rosters as we speak. Garcia has had an especially rough time. He has thrown for 142 yards in two games, completing just 51% of his passes, with two interceptions and one touchdown. That one touchdown pass went for 2 yards to a tight end after East Carolina’s defense fell on a Marshall fumble at the three yard line. That was the first touchdown of the season for the Pirates, and it took them nearly 88 minutes to do so. Garcia’s longest completion of the season went a whole fourteen yards. Harris is the leading running back on the team with 51 yards.

In week one, Michigan took it easy on East Carolina, cruising to a 30-3 win. The Pirates had the ball a total of nine times, with three of those drives resulting in a three and out. Just five drives resulted in ten or more yards gained. Those turned into two punts, one turnover on downs, a missed field goal, and a made field goal. The made field goal occurred on the last play of the game. Without getting into too much detail, the Pirates are running a lot of plays, but they cannot get down the field. The Pirates averaged 4.3 yards per play against Michigan and just 3.9 yards per play last week against Marshall. Additionally, the Pirates have been whistled for 23 penalties for 230 yards in just two games. Numbers like that lead to a grossly inefficient 34% on third down conversions, which ranks 101st out of 130 teams on the young season.

Multiple storylines have emerged following another close loss to a P5/P4/Autonomy school on the road. The biggest one, is Joey Aguilar. Plain and simple. His story is just beginning to unfold. One side of the field had one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Joey Aguilar outplayed him, and not for one second did the moment feel too big for him. He could have completed a few more passes, but that’s being picky. The passes that connected went for 12.5 yards per completion. He avoided negative plays with his arm and legs. Even with an assumed lack of depth behind him, he played big and owned every moment. Throwing for a cool 275 yards and running for 42 more. The one interception he’ll learn from, but it did not account for the loss. Calling Aguilar a game manager does not give him enough credit. Joey Aguilar is a gamer, and I can’t wait to see what he has in store for us next.

App State’s defensive strategy was wise on Saturday night. Try to keep Drake Maye from beating you. For the most part, that worked. For only the third time since 2015, North Carolina won a game without throwing a touchdown pass. The flip side of that, was that big plays in the running game boosted the Tar Heels efforts. Maye routinely checked to running plays to avoid throwing against a secondary that was dropping seven and eight players into coverage. In all, the strategy worked as a team effort. A loss in overtime is nothing to be ashamed of, especially on the road, in games that you are not “supposed” to win. However, the balance could be hard to strike between improving the run defense and the strategy of keeping the play in front of you. That balance becomes especially more difficult after losing Brendan Harrington for the season due to injury.

Perhaps this discussion is slightly premature, but there is some discussion on the banks of the Tar River about whether or not Mason Garcia should continue as the Pirates starting quarterback. Garcia, who is listed at 6’5 and 249 pounds fits the typical prototype East Carolina quarterback size we have seen the from the past. But Garcia is having issues staying in the pocket. The Pirates do call some designed runs for Garcia, on delay draws from the shotgun formation. That has led to Garcia leading the team in carries and rushing yards. But, either his receivers are not getting open, or his pocket is breaking down before they are open, or Garcia is concerned with protection. It possible the game has not slowed down for him yet. Either way you cut it, Garcia has happy feet, and when the throw is not there when he wants it to be, he takes off upfield. This had led some to start clamoring for backup Alex Flinn. Garcia had very little experience coming into 2023, and Flinn has even less. Flinn has played in both games this season, early on against Michigan, and finished the game against Marshall once it was out of reach. He is a fifth year redshirt junior, who played a total of five snaps before this season. At this point, East Carolina isn’t hitting the panic button, but they have been looking at it pretty hard. At some point they have to start scoring some points or else their defense will be gassed come mid-October. The Pirate defense likes to play down hill in the run game, but their secondary have been roasted in two games, surrendering 270 yards passing a game, and 12.5 yards per catch. The Mountaineers are likely to remain patient in the run game to an extent, but the confidence of this past weekend can only propel them forward with Joey Aguilar becoming more comfortable. One would assume that Nate Noel will be looking for an eventual breather after fifty carries in the first two games, but the formula appears to be working for now.

The First Pick

Sinking Ships 17

Mountaineers 35

App State Football @ #17 North Carolina

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (1-0) @ #17 North Carolina (1-0)

Saturday, September 9th, 2023 5:15pm EST

TV/Video: ACC Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kenan Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 50,500

Surface: RootZone 3D Blend AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.39

North Carolina: 80.18

Home: 2.90

North Carolina is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.69 points

VegasInsider Line: North Carolina -18

Series: North Carolina leads 2-1

Last Meeting: App State 61, North Carolina 63, September 3, 2022, Boone NC

Last week was the game that the Mountaineers needed. It had a little bit of everything. An injury to a key piece of the offense. A game that was close in the second half. A backup quarterback that took the lead, and padded it to provide a necessary margin. Some stress and adversity will serve the team well in the coming months. The largest story by far is the quarterback situation. Nobody wants to see an injury to a player, especially not in the first game of the season. For the time being, App State appears lucky to have had a true competition throughout camp which has allowed Joey Aguilar to have the practice reps needed to be ready for this opportunity. It takes a special player to be ready at a moment’s notice, and perform like he did in that second half. It does not matter who the opponent is. On Saturday, Aguilar was the closer, and this weekend he will be the starter. Joey Aguilar will have the rare chance to become a household name a lot quicker than even he could imagine.

The Tar Heels may have put the end of their 2022 campaign behind them last week in Charlotte. They avenged their 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl loss to pseudo-nemesis South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Classic with a semi-comfortable 31-17 win over the Gamecocks. That sentence was a mouthful. That win ended a four game slump at the end of last season for North Carolina. Losses to Georgia Tech and NC State in Chapel Hill were followed by getting throttled by Clemson in the ACC Championship game and losing the Holiday Bowl to Oregon. So after starting 9-1 last season, and rising to as high as #13 in the Associated Press Poll, the season ended on a somber note. Hopes are high for the 2023 Heels, as they came into the season ranked 21st, knowing they have a potential Heisman candidate in quarterback Drake Maye. Yet, there is some caution in the wind with how bad their defense was last season. They showed some signs last week of improvement, but some are still not sold.

Without putting too much stock into one game of a long season, it still provides some glimpses into what a team might look like at the end. The Tar Heels were mostly in control of the game in the first half, but the scoreboard was not really representative of statistical discrepancies. The Heels had four true possessions in the first half and scored on three of those drives, and ended the other in South Carolina territory. They ran 40 offensive plays and rolled up 241 yards of offense on those four drives. After scoring on consecutive drives to start the second half, their next two drives ended in interceptions. South Carolina was essentially finished, but North Carolina gave them life in the second half. By that point, the Gamecocks had abandoned the run game, and Spencer Rattler was running for his life. The Gamecocks resorted to a horizontal quick passing game, which resulted in Rattler finishing the game with 48 drop backs. He was sacked nine times, with seven of those coming in the second half. Rattler finished an efficient 30/39 for 353 yards, without throwing an interception despite being harassed the entire second half.

Give some props to Gardner Webb for hanging tough last week, scoring some points, and making things a little more interesting than what a select few may have expected last week. At the same time, I am not sure enough could be said for how App State adjusted to the unexpected themselves. After a less than stellar open to the game, an injury forced Ryan Burger to the sidelines late in the second quarter. At this point, the Mountaineers trailed by a field goal. On the first play, Joey Aguilar stepped in and fired a pass to an open Kaeden Robinson, who dodged a defender and trotted into the end zone. The Mountaineers would go on to score on every possession that Aguilar directed, outside of one three and out in the fourth quarter. Curiously enough, as App State was trying to kill the clock on their final drive of the game, on a 4th and 1, the Mountaineers threw to the end zone instead of running the ball up two scores. It was mostly a meaningless touchdown, but for me, it sent a message. Something else on film to think about.

On the defensive side of the ball, there were certainly moments to be happy about, and others, not so much. The Webb did all their scoring in the second and third quarters, which really made things dicey as App State was trying to figure out it’s own offensive issues. However, the defense started the game with two possessions that went a total of eleven yards. In total, Webb had five possessions that went less than ten yards, and the Mountaineers forced turnovers on three straight drives in the second half. Pressure started to get into the Gardner Webb backfield, and disrupted the ability of the Bulldogs to step into some throws. The Bulldogs gave it their best shot, but in the end, the depth won out. It’s a process, but I believe that the defense learned a lot about itself. Although Gardner Webb and North Carolina have different offenses, there are similarities in strategy. Both teams looked their best when they were able to dictate tempo and stay on schedule with the chains. Finding those negative plays and avoiding costly penalties will be as vital this week as it was last.

Heading into last season, North Carolina suffered some injuries in the running back room which required them to lean on some younger guys. Caleb Hood had 87 yards against App last year, with most of that coming on a 71-yard run. This season he is fourth on the depth chart. Omarion Hampton managed just 17 yards in the game last year, but gutted out 42 yards on sixteen carries against South Carolina. The guy the Heels really missed last year was British Brooks, a 5’11, 225-pound back who ran for 103 yards against South Carolina With Brooks and Hampton, Maye only had four carries himself against USC. I believe the Heels want to take care of Maye as much as possible this season, and the best way to do that is with a good run game. Maye was not sacked on Saturday night in Charlotte, and the Heels would love to keep it that way. After seeing some of the success that Gardner Webb had with Narii Gaither and Jayden Brown, I was surprised the Bulldogs did not run more than they did. But their intent was clear, to force App State to make open field tackles outside the numbers. Mack Brown has mentioned it several times, from last year on to this year. The intent of the offense is to make sure that Drake Maye can facilitate, by getting the ball to his playmakers. North Carolina is still waiting to hear back on the second appeal of Tez Walker regarding his eligibility. In the meantime, Kobe Paysour was the hot target this past weekend for Drake Maye. He reeled in seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Last year in Boone, with now Indianapolis Colt Josh Downs sitting out with an injury, it was also Paysour who paced the Heels with eight catches for 92 yards and a score. It’s fair to draw some data from last season’s game, outside of that wild and wacky fourth quarter. Are we set up for another similar game? The two previous matchups were absolute classics, that went down to the final plays. Why would anyone think that this game could be any different. There is plenty of tape on Drake Maye, and a lot to lean on from a year ago. Joey Aguilar is the unknown here. There is one half of FBS football tape here. Sure, the Heels can lean on Frank Ponce’s tendencies as a coordinator, but there is probably a big difference in calling plays for Chase Brice and for Joey Aguilar.

The First Pick

Baby Blues 30

Mountaineers 24

App State Football vs Gardner-Webb

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (0-0) vs Gardner-Webb (0-0)

Saturday, September 2nd, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.57

Gardner Webb: 43.72

Home: 3.39

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 33.24 points

Series: App State leads 8-0

Last Meeting: App State 72, Gardner-Webb 7, September 22, 2018, Boone NC

We have all waited patiently and longer than any season, since the end of the 2014 season for the next one to start. In the 2013 and 2014 seasons, during the Mountaineers transition from the FCS to FBS, they were not eligible for postseason play. Those seasons ended in November. Prior to that, it was 2004, when Appalachian finished 6-5 and failed to play a game in the month of December. I had to stop for a minute and think about that. That 2004 season ended with a rather tragic loss to Western Carolina. One that should not have happened. It’s not about how that game ended, or that it was a loss. What comes to mind is what that game/season set off in the coming years. Once again. A long offseason, with a lot of thoughts, reflection and energy going toward the moment that is right before us. There were moments in 2004, that simply did not make sense. With that, some things had to change. That group of Mountaineers figured it out, and I believe this one will too.

The Mountaineers last played The Webb 5 years ago, and plenty has changed since then. Nothing can be drawn from that 65-point massacre. Fourth-year head coach Tre Lamb now leads the Bulldogs, and has been successful in turning the program around. First, he is a Lamb, and hails from a family tree of football that is legendary in the state of Georgia. Both his father and grandfather won state titles in the high school ranks. His uncle Bobby, who is still on the field at Anderson College, also coached at Furman and Mercer. And how could we forget cousin Taylor, currently on staff at Virginia, who was a star signal caller for the Mountaineers from 2014-2017. Tre Lamb was hired in December 2019, but the Bulldogs did not play a game until 2021. Gardner-Webb opted for 4 games in the spring of 2021, and then played a full 11 game slate in the fall. The 2022 season was where the results started to come forward, as the Bulldogs finished the year 7-6 with an FCS playoff appearance and Big South championship highlighting the season.

In 2023, the Big South and the Ohio Valley Conference have merged to form an association for football, to ensure that all schools have a chance to compete in the FCS Playoffs. This will be the first year of that association, which shines a light on what realignment looks like at the FCS level. The Webb has been tabbed as a preseason Top 25 team by multiple outlets and were selected to finish second in the new Big South-OVC. Like Appalachian, The Webb will be breaking in a new starting quarterback in 2023, but both teams might lean on the run game early on. The Bulldogs return Narii Gaither, who ran for over 1,000 yards last season and scored eight touchdowns. In 2021, Gaither put together an almost identical season with 966 yards and seven touchdowns. Gaither is a true three down back as well, as he caught 69 passes for another 608 yards in the last two seasons. He’s fifth all time at Gardner Webb in rushing yards.

The spring and fall competition has come to end. Ryan Burger will be handed the football first in 2023, in hopes to live up to expectations of those before him. Over the years, most of the great Mountaineer quarterbacks started young, and became legends with time. Think of the likes of Richie Williams, Armanti Edwards, Taylor Lamb and Zac Thomas. They all got their shot as underclassmen. Nobody is crowning Burger yet. If anything he has put the pressure on himself to be great, and this is simply the first step in the process. Burger will have plenty to work with around him. The wide receiver room contains essentially the same trio from last season, including Dashuan Davis, Kaiden Robinson and Christian Horn. They combined for 97 catches, 1,460 yards and nine touchdowns. In 2022, it seemed like every time Dalton Stroman caught the ball, it was a big one, evidenced by his 19.5 yards per catch. Had Stroman caught one more pass, he would have found himself in the top ten of the App State record books for average yards per catch in a season.

A lot of the focus of the offseason was about the quarterback position, and justly so, but the most changes have occurred on the defensive side. The Mountaineers return just four starters on that side of the ball, but have been buoyed by transfers. Formerly of Rutgers, Shawn Collins will start at one end position, while Michael Fletcher comes from Michigan State to provide depth on the other side of the line. Tyrek Funderburk (Richmond) will start at one cornerback position in his graduate year. A second graduate transfer, Jarret Paul of Kansas could be the first man up if an injury occurs in the secondary. That mix of experience, along with several other key pieces who played as true freshman, and others such as Nick Ross, Andrew Parker and Brendan Harrington could provide a unique blend of players that most Mountaineer fans have never seen. I’m more intrigued by this group than any, especially with the return of Scot Sloan to coordinate the defense. They will get right, and it might take a couple weeks to round into form, but I like what this group could become.

Gathering information in the first few weeks of a new football season is tough. You have no games to go on besides what happened nine months ago. That information is tougher when the first opponent you face is an FCS squad, with limited media coverage, and generally a sports information staff at the school that is also smaller. So, when you look at a depth chart from an FCS school and they have used the famous ‘OR’, not once, but twice at the quarterback position, there is nothing left to do, but shake your head. Well, it’s not that dramatic. Matthew Caldwell’s name is in ALL CAPS, while Gino English and Jaylen King are listed in proper case. Caldwell makes the most sense, as he was with The Webb last season. English transferred from Florida State where he played less than sparingly. King was in high school this time last year, but played in a run heavy offensive system. On paper he appears to be the athlete of the group. It’s possible we see King on the field in some form or fashion. The Webb does not return a lot of production from 2022 in the wide receiver room. In an Air Raid system, anyone could have a big day beyond those listed as the starters. However, Webb lost their top two pass catchers from a season ago, who combined for 141 receptions, 1,941 yards and fifteen touchdowns. That seems like a lot. Actually, it is a lot. If Matthew Caldwell does indeed start at quarterback, he is not devoid of playing time. He got some action in six games, some wins, and some losses. However, every game that Caldwell appeared in came in games decided by twenty or more points. Take that for what you will. One element of the App State offense that I am excited to take hold, comes from the mobility of Ryan Burger. How much can the new gunslinger stretch the field with his legs. We’ve heard about it, and now its time to see it in person. Having a quarterback that you have to account for in the backfield, whether the pocket breaks down or the receivers are covered, is a big difference maker. When it’s 3rd down and 7 yards, can Burger find that open field and give the offense a new set of downs. There are no doubts that a large focus of the offseason went into the entire team becoming better athletes. Several Mountaineers will tote the rock this weekend. How will that training impact the likes of Nate Noel and Ahmani Marshall? Can’t wait to find out.

The First Pick

Boiling Springs Pound 20

Mountaineers 41

App State Football @ Georgia Southern

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (6-5) @ Georgia Southern (5-6)

Saturday, November 26th, 2022 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Paulson Stadium

Capacity: 25,000

Surface: Shaw Legion HP synthetic turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.42

Georgia Southern: 61.89

Home: 1.86

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4.67 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4.5

Series: App State leads 21-15-1

Last Meeting: App State 27, Georgia Southern 3, November 27, 2021, Boone NC

Having difficulties conjuring up the energy to get excited about this game should not be the case. That might change on Saturday morning, when you’ve had plenty of turkey, and you maybe went shopping in a store on Friday. Sorry, that will change on Saturday morning. Turkey Day provides a distraction that’s not needed in this rivalry. It takes away from the message board and social media trash talk that has been hashed out and regurgitated for years. For instance, we’ve all heard that 6 is greater than 3. And finally, we can tell Southern fans about their series record against Georgia State. But seriously, you’ll wake up on Saturday morning, wherever you are, and one of the first things on your mind will be, “It’s a long time until 6pm”. The game will be on your mind just about every time you look at the clock. It will dictate just about every decision you make. And although we may not feel it during the week, that excitement will be there on Saturday.

The most interesting part regarding this matchup is that we have a “new” Georgia Southern. It is more than just first year head coach Clay Helton being new. Most noticeably, we have pass heavy Georgia Southern. They have a quarterback that has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the conference, but also leads the conference in interceptions by a significant margin. This dramatic shift has not eliminated the Southern ground game, but they are a middle of the road attack, in a conference where most teams have not run the ball well all year. The Eagles will find a way to score some points, but they have been playing catch up against their own defense all season long. In their first nine games of the season, Southern eclipsed 20 points in every game, but have managed just 17 and 10 points respectively against Louisiana and Marshall in their last two games. Since defeating Old Dominion on October 22nd, the Eagles have lost three conference games in a row.

The name of that quarterback is Kyle Vantrease, a sixth year player who transferred in from Buffalo, and is having a career year in Statesboro. Who knows what the Eagles look like without him. Clay Helton came to town to get Georgia Southern back to respectability, and he might be ahead of schedule if it were not for the last three weeks. Vantrease has had easily his worst three weeks of the season in November. Having completed under 60% of his passes in three straight games, throwing just four touchdown passes, and suffering four of his six sacks on the season, it seems that defenses have finally adjusted to the new offensive scheme. Yet, this is not all on Vantrease. South Alabama turned the ball over three times against Southern and the offense could not run in order to stay on the field. The defense gave up over 500 yards to both Marshall and Louisiana. Marshall converted over 50% of its third downs in a thirteen point win and Louisiana was just 3/14 on third downs and won by nineteen points. Make it make sense!

The Mountaineers rolled up a solid 498 yards against one of the worst defenses they have played all year in Old Dominion. If it is possible, the Southern defense is much worse. The Eagles have a bottom five defense nationally, mainly because they are a bottom five defense against the run. They have allowed 227 yards a game on the ground, this after Marshall rolled up 255 yards on the ground last week. In fact, Marshall’s struggling offense could be coming around, because they torched the Eagles for 529 total yards. Seven times this season, opponents have run for over 200 yards on Southern, which includes in each of the last three weeks. In fact, you can attack the Eagles in just about any way you want. In ten of the their eleven games, excluding their opener against Morgan State, Southern has allowed 240 or more yards either passing or rushing. Some weeks they gave up the pass, others the run, and on a couple occasions, they did both. The Eagles record is 1-5 in games where they allowed 240 or more yards rushing, with the only win coming against Nebraska.

It appeared the Mountaineers wanted to take the ball straight to Old Dominion last week with a patient and hard nosed running game. The Mountaineers ran the ball ten times for 44 yards in the first quarter, which also opened up some big passing plays that led to a 10-0 lead after one period of play. App State ran for another 60 yards in the second quarter on seven carries, and eclipsed 300 yards of offense by halftime while heading to the halftime break with 24-0 score. From there, it was basically cruise control. That’s pretty much the App State program we are accustomed to. On top of taking the game to the opponent early, you crush their will to compete with a vanilla game plan in the second half. Ahmani Marshall did not log a carry in the first quarter, got three carries in the second quarter, and then finished the game as the teams leading rusher with 137 yards on nineteen carries. Marshall ran for 56 yards in the third quarter and 58 yards in the final frame. Old Dominion tacked on two late scores for the backdoor cover, but it was mostly a relaxing afternoon.

When these two teams play, something is supposed to be on the line more than just bowl eligibility. That is not supposed to be the prize at the end of this game. The reward should be the inside line to winning the conference championship or winning the division. The last couple years, as this game has been played on a Saturday, at the end of the season, there was nothing on the line. Last year, the Eagles were playing out the season with an interim coach. Two seasons ago, people were tired of a pandemic and also looking forward to just getting to the end of the season. But 2018 and 2019 were different. Those games had some significance, as much as it pains to even mention it. Has this series begun to lose what it has been made of? Does it lack the punch it once had? Was moving it to Saturday a good move, but also a poor decision now that it has found Thanksgiving weekend? Is the cure simply about having games of significance? The more this sport evolves with the transfer portal and immediate success with quick trigger coaching moves, do you lose the importance of a rivalry? When there are 40 or so players on Georgia Southern’s roster that did not get their introduction to college football in Statesboro, are they as endeared to school buses and drainage ditches as the freshmen they play with? Clay Helton was one of the lucky ones to get a second chance coaching at an FBS school. Butch Jones at Arkansas State did the same. There is so much of this Southern team that reminds me of what happened in Jonesboro a year ago. A house cleaning of sorts that came with a much needed philosophy change, with new presidents and athletic directors charged with the task of fixing it. The early results are in, and those defenses at both schools are terrible. A quick glance at Southern’s roster, and you see a lot of guys with experience starting on both sides of the ball, yet they have fives in late November. And will they have to start over again next year? Vantrease will move on and their current backup played last year against App. Lot of questions going forward, but in the meantime, we play Saturday. This game comes down to the big plays, such as third downs and red zone scoring. This shapes up like last week does, but Southern’s offense is in better shape that Old Dominion. On the year, Southern is 18th in the country converting third downs into first downs, doing so 47.3% of the time. The Mountaineers are 98th in stopping third downs, allowing a 41.9% conversion rate to its opponents. And both ODU and Southern are decent red zone defenses, and App State converted 2 of 4 chances against the Monarchs. Still, this Southern defense is really bad, and I think the Mountaineers score from deep like they did last weekend. Southern has allowed 33.25 points per game at home to FBS opponents and that trend will continue.

The First Pick

Eaglets 33

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs Old Dominion

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (5-5) vs Old Dominion (3-7)

Saturday, November 19th, 2022 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.45

Old Dominion: 56.85

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 13.6 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -15.5

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 31, Old Dominion 7, September 10, 2016, Boone NC

There was once a time when App State was one of the most difficult teams to beat when they visited opposing venues. After three road losses this season, it’s quite clear the Mountaineers are lacking that edge they used to have. To throw salt in the wound, in all three road conference losses, the home team wore black. Almost like they are mocking the Mountaineers. Do those psychological tricks work? Maybe it works for the fans, to give us something to talk about, and be annoyed by. But that is not why this season has unfolded the way it has. There is just a little bit missing this year. It’s difficult to explain. One possession here or there. Perhaps a missed a two point conversion. Or a penalty called incorrectly. But those are just excuses. If you want to win, you have to get on the field, figure it out, and earn it, no matter how it looks. Motivation should not be lacking in these final two games, with senior day on Saturday and your biggest rival next weekend. I have faith. I hope you’ll join me.

Old Dominion started their season with a difficult out of conference slate, facing Virginia Tech, East Carolina and Virginia. Old Dominion participated in Sun Belt September, when multiple teams in the conference knocked off Power 5 schools. But as it has been for those schools, the season did not continue as all had hoped. The Monarchs defeated the Hokies in Week 1, but since then have only managed two wins, at home against three-win Arkansas State, and the true mystery win over Coastal Carolina on the road. Since beating the Chanticleers four weeks ago, ODU has lost four straight conference games. The Monarchs scored 49 points on Coastal in that game, and have scored just 43 points since, with three of those games being at home. Prior to the Coastal game, ODU was averaging 21.6 points per game on offense, blew up for seven touchdowns on Coastal, and have managed just 10.75 points a game since. The Coastal game was the true peak of their season, and since, it has been downhill.

Most of the Monarchs opponents have attacked them with balance, but it seems a lot of the blame can be assigned to their offense, and their inability to run the ball effectively at times. Make no mistake, Old Dominion only has 928 rushing yards through ten games, and that’s pretty bad. Only seven teams in FBS are worse. But figure in that one game, where ODU ran all over Coastal, to the tune of 323 yards, and that number looks even worse. Seven times, the Monarchs have run for 90 yards or less. Let’s toss in the fact that Old Dominion has completed just 56% of their passes as a team. That leads to one of the more appalling and lopsided figures I have seen this season. Old Dominion almost never has the ball. The official ODU site says they average just under 24 minutes of possession a game. The NCAA site says its closer to 25 minutes a game. Discrepancies aside, it is one of the worst figures in the country. Possession is overrated if you can score, but the Monarchs are having a hard time there. For example, Ole Miss is a bottom-ten time of possession team, but they average 36 points a game.

Due to Old Dominion’s inability to move the ball, with only 15.5 first downs per game, their defense has to play a lot. Another major statistical oddity, the Monarch defense has defended 182 more plays than their own offense has run. One hundred eighty-two plays. If ODU is running about 60 plays a game, and their opponents run 18 more plays per game, it’s almost works out to the ODU defense playing three more games than their offense. Wondering why they have been outgained by 110 yards per game? It’s because they have been defending so many plays. And they really have not been bad despite this. Their defense gives up 5.6 yards per play, which is not great, but considering their exposure, it is somewhat fine. And they will give up those yards between the 20-yard lines, but once you get in the red zone, they wont let you score much. On forty red-zone drives, the Monarchs have allowed just eighteen touchdowns and twelve field goals. They have turned away 25% of their opposing offenses red zone drives, which makes them a top-12 red zone defense in the country.

Although the box score suggests the weather was sunny during the game, it was anything but that. It was a cold, wet, misty day in Huntington, WV with two struggling offenses that played down to the weather. The Mountaineers turned in their lowest offensive output of the season, with just 293 total yards. That resulted in two offensive scores in another road game where the Mountaineers trailed from start to finish. The two offensive touchdown drives went a total of 82 yards and took nineteen plays between the drives. App State averaged just 2.9 yards per run, 5.2 yards per pass, and 4 yards per play for the game. The defense created chances for the offense many times throughout the game, yet the offense was unable to capitalize. Eight Marshall drives went for 21 yards or fewer. Without sustained drives this weekend, Old Dominion’s very bad defense becomes just bad, giving up yards in the middle of the field, but holding steady in the red zone. The Mountaineers are due for some big offensive plays to go their way.

There exists a couple different dynamics in play they are hard to measure in a game such as this. One team needs a win more than another. Last week, Old Dominion lost their seventh game of the season, which will exclude them from postseason play. The Monarchs started last season at 1-6, but reeled off five straight wins to gain bowl eligibility, before falling to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. That after the Monarchs did not play a season in 2020 due to the pandemic. The Sun Belt is a different animal week to week compared to Conference USA, where they played previously. Many out of conference, in-state games are set for Old Dominion, that gives them the look of the UL-Monroe of the Sun Belt East. Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina are mainstays on the Monarchs future scheduling. In what appears to be a strong East Division moving forward, they may reconsider playing the Power Five games that have been scheduled. It’s great when you can get an upset, but as App State has also learned this season, the long term effects can have a substantial impact. Old Dominion has two bowl appearances in their FBS history and their region is always hailed as a fertile recruiting ground, yet the year to year results have not been there. As it stands, Old Dominion has three main offensive contributors, and nobody else stands out. Their quarterback Hayden Wolff has played just about every snap. Running back Blake Watson has 130 carries on the year, while the next closest player has thirty carries. Ali Jennings III has hogged 54 receptions and nine touchdowns, while no other receiver has more than 24 catches and two touchdowns. Between Watson and Jennings III, they have scored 15 of the 25 offensive touchdowns this season. Switching back to the other side of the ball, in the last four games, Old Dominion’s opponents have ran at them at a higher rate than at any point this season. The Monarch’s had not defended 50 rushing plays in a game this season until they ran into Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Marshall and James Madison. Old Dominion defended 219 attempts and allowed 927 yards on the ground in those four games, while giving up nine rushing touchdowns. Somehow, Marshall ran for 298 yards and failed to get in the end zone! If the Mountaineers stay with it, they’ll get some yards on the Monarchs and can hopefully find several touchdowns in their home finale.

The First Pick

Royals 16

Mountaineers 30

App State Football @ Marshall

Posted on by
1

Appalachian State (5-4) @ Marshall (5-4)

Saturday, November 12th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Joan C Edwards Stadium

Capacity: 38,227

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.88

Marshall: 67.16

Home: 2.09

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .63 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -1

Series: App State leads 15-9

Last Meeting: App State 31, Marshall 30, September 23, 2021, Boone NC

After a trip to the almost beach in Conway, App State will travel the opposite direction to the banks of the Ohio River to face Marshall in a conference game for the first time since 1996. It’s hard to believe it has been over a quarter century since the last such meeting. These teams have played some very memorable games over the years against one another. This series is tied at 6-6 in games played in Huntington, and the last time the Mountaineers visited, Marshall knocked the Mountaineers out of the Top 25 rankings. A previous game in Huntington included the Mountaineers winning a tough game to remain undefeated in their magical 1995 season. Last season, the Mountaineers broke a three game losing streak to Marshall by scoring ten unanswered points in the fourth quarter. After back to back games in this series with a national audience, these teams will clash looking to find their way into bowl eligibility. Both teams need two wins, and neither wants to head into their final two games of the regular season needing to win both contests.

If you thought Coastal and App are turning into a big deal, may I introduce App State and Marshall. This rivalry was a big deal, and will continue to be a big deal. These two teams have traded home wins the past two seasons, and both games were thrilling and tight from start to finish. Saturday looks to be the same, with two teams struggling with inconsistent parts of their team. The App State offense can look unbeatable at times, and at other times, look downright boring. Marshall struggles on offense, but has a stingy defense that keeps them in every game. Both teams gained Power 5 wins earlier in the year, but have not resembled those teams for some time now. Marshall scored a 12-0 victory over Old Dominion last week, that basically sums up their entire season. Plenty of defense, and enough offense. The Herd kicked four field goals in their shutout win while recovering three Old Dominion fumbles. They controlled the game, possessing the ball for 38 minutes, but failed to score touchdowns with five trips in the red zone.

One might look at the Marshall schedule further, and see that they defeated James Madison a few weeks ago. Madison did not have quarterback Todd Centeio that game, and their backup threw four interceptions and was sacked seven times. The Dukes were also 0-17 on third down in that contest. That accounts for two of Marshall’s five wins. The other three were over Norfolk State, Notre Dame and Gardner Webb. One of those three schools does not belong with the other two. That’s right, Marshall beat Notre Dame back in September, the same weekend that App State beat Texas A&M. Two Notre Dame quarterbacks combined to throw three interceptions against the Herd. Hopefully you noticed the trend. In Marshall’s three FBS wins, they have received a lot of help via the turnover. It’s a large part of their success, having gained 21 turnovers all season long, ranking 5th in FBS in that category. But then again, half of those turnovers gained occurred in just three games.

The Herd have used two quarterbacks this season. In the the first six games, Henry Colombi handled most of the snaps. The Texas Tech transfer was largely ineffective as a passer with just six touchdown passes, but was pretty accurate overall, completing well over 70% of his passes. However, he has not played since the Louisiana game, when he completed just nine of his thirteen passes for 68 yards. Redshirt freshman Cam Fancher has been inserted in the starting lineup the last three games, using his feet as a runner to complement the Marshall run game. Fancher has just one touchdown pass and four interceptions since he has been starting, while completing around 50% of his passes. The Herd is averaging 17 points per game since Fancher took over. Let us remove the blowout win over Norfolk State from consideration. Marshall managed 26 points against Notre Dame, 28 against Bowling Green in regulation, 7 against Troy and 28 against Gardner Webb. That comes to nearly 23 points a game. Fancher is guiding the offense to six fewer points per game.

Another frustrating day for the App State ground attack has many asking questions. Seems the successes against Robert Morris and Georgia State are long gone. Coastal was decent on run defense. Marshall is better. Leaps and bounds better. Opponents are only gaining 78.7 yards per game on the ground against the Herd. That’s the third best figure in the country. James Madison is second against the run, and the Mountaineers were limited to 63 yards in that game. This will be a challenge. Can App State find a way to run the ball against Marshall? App State managed just 88 yards on the ground last week, and it was not like they were forced to throw. Maybe the Mountaineers attack the Herd in the air first. Although Marshall does not have unbeatable statistics against the pass, they do have 13 interceptions on the year, yet they allow 11.8 yards per catch. The Herd only gives up 21% of third down conversion on defense, so running the ball seems like a stretch. Maybe the Mountaineers can get the secondary walking backwards on the snap by getting their tight ends and receivers going early.

Touchdowns might become premium this Saturday. Marshall doesn’t give them up and their offense does not score them. A slower pace of offense could favor the Mountaineers, if they can get in gear. It is likely that Marshall will hang around, as they are limited offensively, outside of their ground game. Marshall loves to hand the ball to Khalan Laborn, and for good reason. Laborn has accumulated 1200 yards on the ground in just nine games, and has thirteen touchdowns to his credit. The Herd will go as he does. Marshall has 100 first downs on the ground alone this season. The run game, combined with a stellar defense, is usually one of the oldest recipes in the book for a successful football team. However, Marshall sits here with a 5-4 record, and really has not defeated a good football team since Notre Dame. They are a perplexing team. A lot of the same things can be said about App State at this point. The juice has been missing since mid-September. And although there have been glimpses of success, it has been inconsistent all year long. Both teams are in situation where they are playing to make a bowl game, which is well below the expectations of competing for the East division. This one feels like it has the makings of a classic game in this rivalry, but at the same time, it feels like something weird could happen. You could say the same thing about the 2020 game in Huntington. That was a classic defensive struggle for most of the game until Marshall scored late to put the game out of reach. But this is nearly a completely different Marshall team from two years ago. One that has lost its last two home games, and scoring just thirteen points in each game. You also just don’t know which App State team will show up. You could get the first half team or the second half team. The team that gives up numerous third downs, or the one that makes crucial mistakes at the worst times. The Mountaineers have the talent to play with any team in this league, but for whatever reason it has not clicked this season on a consistent basis. But the Mountaineers are still better than a watered down Louisiana team that Marshall lost to at home. And they are better than James Madison without their quarterback. If the Mountaineers can control the game with a creative game plan, and show Marshall things they have not seen on tape, they should be able to wear down that Herd defense. Additionally, the Mountaineers linebackers need to be ready to tackle well all game long. The first team to 20 points will probably win, and I think Chase Brice should be the difference.

The First Pick

Plunderers 18

Mountaineers 24

App State Football @ Coastal Carolina

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (5-3) @ Coastal Carolina (7-1)

Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.65

Coastal Carolina: 67.39

Home: 1.82

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.44 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -3

Series: App State leads 7-1

Last Meeting: App State 30, Coastal Carolina 27, October 20, 2021, Boone NC

This Thursday comes down to an all or nothing situation. A lot of how the remainder of the season is approached will come down to this result. And it works that way for both teams. A loss by either, and they will need some major help to achieve their goals. The Mountaineers have been tested this season. Sometimes by teams they expected, and other times by teams they may not have. Coastal, themselves, has not really had many games where you can say they ran away with one, outside of a midweek contest at the friendliest place to play in the conference. They have allowed 26 or more points to every team they have played at home, including the likes of Gardner-Webb and Army, and those numbers have slowly gone up over the course of the season. Yet, the Chanticleers have managed a sell-out for just about the only team their fans and students really care to beat, while promoting a “black out” at the same time. So instead of promoting their brand, they opt for being something they actually are not. Seems to fit them quite well.

Whether we want to admit it or not, Coastal and App are still a big deal. When the schedule was released, this game week was singled out as a game that will have a major impact on the Sun Belt East Division race. It remains that way as we enter a pivotal ninth game for both teams. Whoever wins will have a major inside line to representing the division in the conference championship game. Coastal made it here by only dropping one game, but it was a noticeable loss, just a couple weeks ago at home to Old Dominion. Coastal can usually find a way to win closely played games, but this one was no such contest. The Chanticleers were dominated from start to finish. The Monarchs never trailed in the game where they ran for 323 yards on the ground on just 32 attempts. In all, Old Dominion averaged 10.8 yards per play, an uncanny figure. Grayson McCall’s 358 passing yards were not enough, and his three touchdown passes were not enough, but it was six sacks by the ODU defense that ruined Coastal’s homecoming weekend.

Usually with the Coastal offense, they go as the way their quarterback goes. Grayson McCall has had another stellar year. But as was mentioned earlier, it’s not all McCall. He’s an integral part of what they do, and they suffer when he isn’t playing. He’s completing close to 69% of his passes on the year, even after completing just 13 of 24 passes last week against Marshall. His lone interception of the year was way back in Week 2 against Gardner-Webb, and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games. Although, McCall has thrown just five touchdown passes in his last three games, he remains on fire in home games, tossing 15 touchdown passes across five contests, and exactly three touchdown passes in each game. This all comes down to which storyline you want to follow. Let’s throw another wrench into this Coastal offense correlation with McCall’s output. In the last three weeks, Coastal has averaged just 24.3 points per game, where in the first five games of the season, the Chants were scoring 36.4 points per game. That’s a decent reduction of points all of a sudden. In two of those three games, wins over Marshall and ULM, both on the road, Coastal recovered two fumbles.

Back to McCall for a brief moment. Of his three years starting for the Chanticleers, he’s evolved into more a passer than a runner. Concerns with keeping him healthy and away from defenders is part of it. It’s a natural progression for just about any quarterback that is mobile or considered a dual threat. McCall ran for 569 yards in 2020, 290 yards in 2021, and 158 yards so far in 2022. McCall has had one game this season, where his rushing statistics, due primarily to lost yardage on sacks, were in the negative. That was the Old Dominion loss. He also had one such game last year, where his rushing totals were in the negative. That was the loss to App State. The Mountaineers collected eight tackles for loss including three sacks in the game. App State also fumbled twice in that game, keeping it closer than it really should have been. The Mountaineers outgained Coastal by 229 yards last year, but these two teams are a lot different in 2022. Coastal had three different backs rush for over 500 yards on the season in 2021, with one back eclipsing 1,000 yards. This season, Coastal has just one back in CJ Beasley who is over 500 yards through eight games, followed by Reese White with 334 yards. Coastal is rushing for 52 less yards per game and 1.5 yards per carry fewer than they did a season ago.

The way this App State offense has played for several weeks leads to plenty of concerns facing a team like Coastal Carolina that likes to start fast. The Mountaineers will have to be ready to go from the first whistle. App State has seen success many different ways over the course of the McCall era. This is a very winnable game if the Mountaineers play their brand and hold onto the football. Their game is a steady dose of the run, mixed with passing elements. The running backs should be fresh, with Nate Noel and Daetrich Harrington combining for a perfect change of pace to Camerun Peoples, who has been difficult to take down this season once he gets a couple steps upfield. Coastal is holding opponents to ten less yards per game on the ground compared to last season. In 2021, they allowed 4.1 per carry, while giving up 4.0 per tote in 2022. However the Mountaineers could be looking to pass on Thursday night, against a secondary that has given up 273 yards per game this season. In addition, Coastal has surrendered 83 more yards per game, and nearly 2 more yards per attempt and completion this season compared to last. And we all remember the Malik Williams game from a season ago, where he shredded the Chant defense for 206 yards. Corey Sutton also had a huge game with 113 yards receiving.

It’s pretty easy to sit back and mention, that to keep from Coastal from winning, you have to do certain things, and it will all work out. What App State did last year was exactly what you do not want to do against a team built like Coastal. The Mountaineers were down 14-0 after the first quarter. Not good. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over twice to Coastal by fumbling. Very bad. Usually, that is not going to work. Luckily, an on-sides kick was miraculously executed to a tee, and the Mountaineers tied the game just about as quickly as they fell behind. An interesting statistic to note in that game, Coastal ran just 52 offensive plays, yet time of possession was fairly even. Converting just three of nine third down conversions kept the Chants off the field for the most part. So, all the things the Mountaineers could not afford to do, they did, and still were able to amass 575 yards offense. And now, App State will have their chance at a defense, that is arguably worse than they were a season ago. Ranked 98th overall, and 113th in passing yards, Coastal has given up yards this season, and because of it, are allowing nearly six more points a game on defense. Yet, Chase Brice and the Mountaineers will be playing in just their third road game of the season, where Brice has averaged about 265 yards per game on the road, and has only been sacked three times. Those two games in Texas might not provide enough of a sample size to truly represent what could happen after a bus ride to Conway. Maybe all this comes down to App State running the football. The Mountaineers ran for 204 yards back in 2020, but did not adjust their game plan in the second half. Last year, the Mountaineers raced for 228 yards on the ground. In both situations, it involved slow steady attacks, to keep the ball out of the hands of the Coastal offense. The longer the Coastal defense remains on the field, the better for App State. No team ever wants to go down 14 points to start a game, but the Mountaineers pulled it off last year, and then again this season against Georgia State. In both scenarios, the Mountaineers never panicked, even if they had to adjust their plan on the fly, and it worked out. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Mountaineers, but there are just as many reasons to doubt a Coastal team that allowed teams like Army and Gardner Webb to hang around. The best win either of those two have is probably UL-Monroe. In the Georgia Southern game, neither defense could stop the other. That one came down to who had the ball last. The Chants offense carried them early on, and they are the reason they win, but that defense just has way too many issues giving up yards, which will lead to their demise on Thursday night.

The First Pick

Chaucers Chickens 20

Mountaineers 28

App State Football vs Robert Morris

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (4-3) vs Robert Morris (0-7)

Saturday, October 29th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.24

Robert Morris: 22.99

Home: 1.94

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 52.19 points

VegasInsider Line: No line

Series: n/a

Last Meeting: n/a

The first step was taken in the right direction. It can be easy to get off your path, and sometimes finding your stride again is twice as hard. But the Mountaineers found something last Wednesday night. It’s understandable if you are not sold yet. That’s a normal feeling. That path might still have some bumps along the way, but its important to be on it. The Mountaineers get a small break before a big game next week, on a short week no less. No looking ahead, but it is hard not to. Robert Morris should not present much of a challenge. That does not mean they are not trying to get better themselves. They’ll try to gain yards, get first downs, score points, and stop the Mountaineers from doing those same things. But this is a game where App State will want to take care of business early and allow those who do not get as much playing time, to have those opportunities to succeed.

The Robert Morris Colonials found the App State football schedule due to Marshall joining the Sun Belt this season. Originally, Marshall and App State were scheduled to play as non-conference opponents, and the hurried restructuring of conferences this past offseason sent the Mountaineers scurrying for a twelfth opponent. Imagine shopping for bread and milk at the grocery store when the snow is already falling. You get the idea. The last team that Robert Morris defeated was Campbell in 2021. And then Campbell turned around a year later and stomped the Colonials 41-10 on October 15th. In fact, in five of Robert Morris’ seven losses, their average margin of defeat is 32.4 points. The Colonials have scored 20 points once this year, in their season opener. Since, they have managed to score 8.33 points per game, and have reached double digit scoring just three times.

The quarterback position has been a merry-go-round for the Colonials this season. In their first game against Dayton, Anthony Chiccitt got his first collegiate start, and Jake Simmons came in for relief in the fourth quarter. The same scenario occurred in the second game against Miami (OH). Chiccitt started and Simmons finished. In their third game, Jake Simmons started, but Corbin Lafrance played most of the second half. In their fourth game, Simmons started again, but was relieved by Zach Tanner in the second quarter. In game five, it was Zach Tanner who started and gave way to Corbin LaFrance. Tanner and LaFrance also got playing time against Campbell, and it was back to Chiccitt last week against North Carolina A&T. Hope you were able to keep up. Of the four primary quarterbacks, neither has played in every game, yet they have all thrown interceptions, and only Chiccitt and Simmons have thrown touchdown passes. Tanner completes just 43% of his passes to his teammates, while 9% has gone to the opponents. That’s a really complicated way to say, he has thrown six interceptions on just sixty-two attempts.

As football goes, you need good quarterback play to win. You can have a variety of playmakers all over the field, but its starts with that quarterback. It’s clear that Robert Morris has lacked in consistency this season at that position. That makes it incredibly harder for wide receivers to do their job, when and when not to expect a pass to be delivered, or for the offensive line to know when that ball might be out, or where that quarterback might be in the pocket. But Robert Morris needs other pieces as well for their offense. Running back Alijah Jackson is the most trusted player in the Colonial offense. He has carried the ball 99 times for 335 yards, without finding the end zone. His 3.4 yards per carry average is second best on the team to quarterback Jake Simmons’ 4.3 yards per carry. But as noted previously, Simmons has played in just four games, and only has eight attempts on the ground. Anthony Purge and Kimon O’Sullivan have filled in at time, but neither has been efficient, both with less than 75 yards to their credit on the season on the ground.

After a slow start, the Mountaineers offense started clicking last Wednesday. It still wasn’t a full sixty minutes of football, but the trend line is heading in the right direction. As quickly as the Mountaineer run game dissipated several weeks ago, it came back in a hurry. Georgia State ran out to a 14-0 lead, and it looked like they might take that into halftime before the Mountaineers put together their best drive of the game. A 12-play, 75-yard drive that consumed five and a half minutes of game clock. That score right before the halftime break ignited a defense, which went on to force three second half turnovers. In turn, those turnovers turned into short fields, and with the aid of a Milan Tucker 63 yard kickoff return, allowed App State to score touchdowns on five straight drives. Whatever happened in the second quarter was the fire the Mountaineers needed. It was a perfect night for running the ball 64 times right at the Georgia State defense, who was helpless in stopping whichever running back that App threw at them.

Just about the only way to compare Robert Morris to anyone that App State has played this year is to look back at the Citadel game. Sure, both schools are in the FCS, but they are both very bad on offense. Fresh off a win last weekend at Western Carolina, Citadel scored over 20 points in a game for the second time this season. That has only happened once this season for Robert Morris. The Citadel is averaging 284 yards of offense this year, which is 112th out of 123 teams. Robert Morris is 122nd in the FCS at 222 yards per contest. Want an idea of how far 222 yards is? It’s not even a down and back of entire football field, including end zones. Robert Morris has a total of nine offensive touchdowns on the season, which ties them for dead last in total offensive touchdowns in the FCS, with Lafayette and Bucknell. Robert Morris has two more touchdowns than Iowa, which only has seven. Fort Lewis in Division II also has scored seven touchdowns on offense, which is dead last in that division. And there are about a dozen teams in Division III who have yet to score nine touchdowns on offense. That was one unplanned rabbit hole, but we found the bottom somehow. Back to the Citadel, a team who clearly runs the triple option. The Citadel has completed 49.5% of its passes this year, while Robert Morris sits at 50.5%, both figures that sit in the bottom twenty of all FCS schools. The Colonials are dead last in FCS in third down conversion percentage at 21.8%. This Robert Morris team might be the worst offensive team the Mountaineers have ever faced. It’s brutal. However, to consider that the Colonial defense allows just 34.1 points per game, with the help of only 10 points a game on offense, is actually commendable. There can be two sides of that coin. The Colonials red zone defense is 50th in FCS. They have defended 29 red zone drives, but have allowed just fifteen touchdowns in the red zone, while forcing eight field goals. That’s pretty stubborn defense. But the Colonials have also allowed fifteen touchdown from beyond the red zone. That’s a classic case of playing better defense when there is less field to cover. Is that enough to keep the Mountaineers out of the 60+ point total? It’s possible, but the real question should be whether Robert Morris can score.

The First Pick

Financiers 0

Mountaineers 59

App State Football @ Texas State

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (3-2) vs Texas State (2-3)

Saturday, October 8th, 2022 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Bobcat Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Field Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 75.46

Texas State: 51.13

Home: 2.07

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 22.26 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -19

Series: App State leads 6-0

Last Meeting: App State 38, Texas State 17 November 7, 2020, San Marcos, TX

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Citadel was no match for the Mountaineers as the home team broke a two game winless streak against their former conference foe. App State started the game much like the hurricane that hampered attendance, striking quickly and cruising to a large lead before the second became a game of handoffs and clock killing. You can almost use that same phrase when describing the Mountaineers next opponent. Texas State is trying different ways to win football game, yet the results have not really paid off as of yet under their fourth year coach. App State will be playing its second game of the season on the road, oddly, both being played in Texas. The Mountaineers survived the heat in September, but the High Country has been in the throws of fall for a few weeks now. That Texas heat in October may come as a larger shock to the bodies this time around. Luckily, not much energy was exerted last week, and there will be a few extra days of rest prior to the next conference matchup.

This game will be the seventh in the series between the two teams, and sixth while conference mates in the Sun Belt. In those six games, App State has had to travel to San Marcos four times since 2017. The Mountaineers hosted the Bobcats twice, in 2016 and 2019. Unbalanced scheduling and realignment has led to this somewhat, but it does not truly explain the cross division discrepancy. It’s likely that the next time these two play after this Saturday will be in Boone, but in what year that will be is a complete unknown. Switching gears a bit, the Bobcats have played twenty football games since they last faced App State. In those twenty games, Texas State is 7-13, which is about par for the course in San Marcos. But in those seven wins, the Bobcats have beaten just five teams, as they have claimed two wins apiece over Arkansas State and Florida International. The other victims included an overtime win over South Alabama, an eight point win over UL-Monroe, and a victory over Houston Christian University, the school formerly known as Houston Baptist.

Of the games Texas State has played this year, their record stands exactly where you thought it might be, but they have played some absolutely boring games. In both wins and losses, the closest game they have played was the opener, on September 3rd, in which they lost by 24 points. It’s been blowouts all season long, so even after five games, its hard to tell what Texas State has this year. Last week the Bobcats were thumped in their Sun Belt opener by James Madison, who on paper, appears to have played their game with ease. Against Nevada, the game was close at halftime, just a one score deficit at 14-7, but the Bobcats fumbled twice in the third quarter and gave way to Nevada winning comfortably. Against Baylor, a similar scenario played out. A third quarter fumble on their opening drive flattened Texas State, and they gained just seventy-eight yards on six drives for the remainder of the game. And once again, against James Madison, they played their best second half of the season, but spotted the Dukes a 19-0 lead at half. The Bobcats have yet to play two halves of football, and it has shown in all of their losses.

It’s quite funny, that of the wins that Texas State was able to acquire over the last twenty games included Arkansas State. Mainly, because two of their main contributors on offense went through Jonesboro. You may remember the name Layne Hatcher, who officially began his career at Alabama, where he redshirted and transferred to A-State way back in 2019. He started nine games in 2019, and then didn’t start at all in 2020. He earned 7 starts in 2021 before leaving town. He’s taken every snap for Texas State this year. The Mountaineers defense harassed Hatcher last year into three interceptions and four sacks in the 48-14 win over Arkansas State. In 2020, App State also picked off Hatcher once and sacked him twice in Boone. This season, Hatcher has thrown 11 touchdown passes in five games, but the interceptions are still bugging him, with six picks being thrown. Those have all occurred in four games. Lincoln Pare is the second leading rusher for Texas State in 2022, but was the leading rusher for Arkansas State in 2021. Pare has back to back eighty yard performances in his last two games after getting just thirteen carries in the first three games of the season.

The Mountaineers were extremely hard to defend on Saturday; when they had the ball. App State scored seven touchdowns on just 20:09 of possession. In fact, one of the craziest statistics of all, the Mountaineers had the ball for one play on offense in the third quarter and scored on a 80-yard touchdown pass from Chase Brice to Christan Horn. App State ran 47 plays for the game, spreading the ball to five running backs, with neither getting more than seven carries. In fact, it was probable redshirt candidate Kanye Roberts with a game high seven carries that he took advantage of for 70 yards. Camerun Peoples stretched his legs for a seventy-three yard touchdown run in the second quarter. Dashuan Davis also found himself wide open for a 44-yard touchdown catch in the opening quarter. All of these big plays equated to the Mountaineers averaging 11.6 yard per snap. When you are moving the ball at that clip, possession will be hard to come by, but as long as the defense can keep the other team off the board, its a negligible statistic.

Texas State is going somewhere. Nobody knows where that is. This is a program that has struggled mightily for years. Since their move to FBS, its been an uphill battle in the mud. This was a once proud program with some success in Division II and FCS. They won back to back FCS titles in 1981-1982. They had a couple playoff berths in the FCS days, but since they have entered FBS, it has been tough. Texas State currently holds a winning record against one Sun Belt school. They lead South Alabama 4-3, and are 4-4 against Georgia State. Those schools were recent football startups. Between App State, Ga. Southern and Coastal Carolina, they are a combined 2-12. They have never beaten Louisiana in nine tries and are 1-11 against Troy. How do they start getting better? Maybe its by recruiting better. Recently, Texas State has relied heavily on transfers. The Bobcats list 50 players on their roster who have not transferred in from another college or university. Sixty-nine others have transferred in from all over the country. San Marcos is almost like an island of misfit college football players. Their head coach Jake Spavital is in his fourth year. He’s been given one more year than his predecessor Everett Withers to get this ship righted. Withers won seven total games and two conference games in three years. Spavital has won nine games, and seven in conference play in his first three years. There is some improvement, but is it enough? Texas State has had one season since moving to FBS with an over .500 won-loss record and they have still have not played in a bowl game. Eventually, Texas State will find what they are looking for, whether that be wins on the football field, a new coach, or perhaps even a new conference. In the meantime, they are here playing games, and their opportunities to get those wins might be as good as ever. The Sun Belt West appears to be wide open for the first time in several years. There is an outside chance of winning five or maybe even six games, but they’ll need to start playing cleaner football. They’ve turned the ball over eleven times this season and opponents have accepted 33 penalties committed by the Bobcats. They’ll need long drives and touchdowns to keep up with App State, but the numbers say it’s unlikely to happen.

The First Pick

Wack in Black 15

Mountaineers 38