Tag Archives: 2022

App State Football @ Texas State

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Appalachian State (3-2) vs Texas State (2-3)

Saturday, October 8th, 2022 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Bobcat Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Field Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 75.46

Texas State: 51.13

Home: 2.07

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 22.26 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -19

Series: App State leads 6-0

Last Meeting: App State 38, Texas State 17 November 7, 2020, San Marcos, TX

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Citadel was no match for the Mountaineers as the home team broke a two game winless streak against their former conference foe. App State started the game much like the hurricane that hampered attendance, striking quickly and cruising to a large lead before the second became a game of handoffs and clock killing. You can almost use that same phrase when describing the Mountaineers next opponent. Texas State is trying different ways to win football game, yet the results have not really paid off as of yet under their fourth year coach. App State will be playing its second game of the season on the road, oddly, both being played in Texas. The Mountaineers survived the heat in September, but the High Country has been in the throws of fall for a few weeks now. That Texas heat in October may come as a larger shock to the bodies this time around. Luckily, not much energy was exerted last week, and there will be a few extra days of rest prior to the next conference matchup.

This game will be the seventh in the series between the two teams, and sixth while conference mates in the Sun Belt. In those six games, App State has had to travel to San Marcos four times since 2017. The Mountaineers hosted the Bobcats twice, in 2016 and 2019. Unbalanced scheduling and realignment has led to this somewhat, but it does not truly explain the cross division discrepancy. It’s likely that the next time these two play after this Saturday will be in Boone, but in what year that will be is a complete unknown. Switching gears a bit, the Bobcats have played twenty football games since they last faced App State. In those twenty games, Texas State is 7-13, which is about par for the course in San Marcos. But in those seven wins, the Bobcats have beaten just five teams, as they have claimed two wins apiece over Arkansas State and Florida International. The other victims included an overtime win over South Alabama, an eight point win over UL-Monroe, and a victory over Houston Christian University, the school formerly known as Houston Baptist.

Of the games Texas State has played this year, their record stands exactly where you thought it might be, but they have played some absolutely boring games. In both wins and losses, the closest game they have played was the opener, on September 3rd, in which they lost by 24 points. It’s been blowouts all season long, so even after five games, its hard to tell what Texas State has this year. Last week the Bobcats were thumped in their Sun Belt opener by James Madison, who on paper, appears to have played their game with ease. Against Nevada, the game was close at halftime, just a one score deficit at 14-7, but the Bobcats fumbled twice in the third quarter and gave way to Nevada winning comfortably. Against Baylor, a similar scenario played out. A third quarter fumble on their opening drive flattened Texas State, and they gained just seventy-eight yards on six drives for the remainder of the game. And once again, against James Madison, they played their best second half of the season, but spotted the Dukes a 19-0 lead at half. The Bobcats have yet to play two halves of football, and it has shown in all of their losses.

It’s quite funny, that of the wins that Texas State was able to acquire over the last twenty games included Arkansas State. Mainly, because two of their main contributors on offense went through Jonesboro. You may remember the name Layne Hatcher, who officially began his career at Alabama, where he redshirted and transferred to A-State way back in 2019. He started nine games in 2019, and then didn’t start at all in 2020. He earned 7 starts in 2021 before leaving town. He’s taken every snap for Texas State this year. The Mountaineers defense harassed Hatcher last year into three interceptions and four sacks in the 48-14 win over Arkansas State. In 2020, App State also picked off Hatcher once and sacked him twice in Boone. This season, Hatcher has thrown 11 touchdown passes in five games, but the interceptions are still bugging him, with six picks being thrown. Those have all occurred in four games. Lincoln Pare is the second leading rusher for Texas State in 2022, but was the leading rusher for Arkansas State in 2021. Pare has back to back eighty yard performances in his last two games after getting just thirteen carries in the first three games of the season.

The Mountaineers were extremely hard to defend on Saturday; when they had the ball. App State scored seven touchdowns on just 20:09 of possession. In fact, one of the craziest statistics of all, the Mountaineers had the ball for one play on offense in the third quarter and scored on a 80-yard touchdown pass from Chase Brice to Christan Horn. App State ran 47 plays for the game, spreading the ball to five running backs, with neither getting more than seven carries. In fact, it was probable redshirt candidate Kanye Roberts with a game high seven carries that he took advantage of for 70 yards. Camerun Peoples stretched his legs for a seventy-three yard touchdown run in the second quarter. Dashuan Davis also found himself wide open for a 44-yard touchdown catch in the opening quarter. All of these big plays equated to the Mountaineers averaging 11.6 yard per snap. When you are moving the ball at that clip, possession will be hard to come by, but as long as the defense can keep the other team off the board, its a negligible statistic.

Texas State is going somewhere. Nobody knows where that is. This is a program that has struggled mightily for years. Since their move to FBS, its been an uphill battle in the mud. This was a once proud program with some success in Division II and FCS. They won back to back FCS titles in 1981-1982. They had a couple playoff berths in the FCS days, but since they have entered FBS, it has been tough. Texas State currently holds a winning record against one Sun Belt school. They lead South Alabama 4-3, and are 4-4 against Georgia State. Those schools were recent football startups. Between App State, Ga. Southern and Coastal Carolina, they are a combined 2-12. They have never beaten Louisiana in nine tries and are 1-11 against Troy. How do they start getting better? Maybe its by recruiting better. Recently, Texas State has relied heavily on transfers. The Bobcats list 50 players on their roster who have not transferred in from another college or university. Sixty-nine others have transferred in from all over the country. San Marcos is almost like an island of misfit college football players. Their head coach Jake Spavital is in his fourth year. He’s been given one more year than his predecessor Everett Withers to get this ship righted. Withers won seven total games and two conference games in three years. Spavital has won nine games, and seven in conference play in his first three years. There is some improvement, but is it enough? Texas State has had one season since moving to FBS with an over .500 won-loss record and they have still have not played in a bowl game. Eventually, Texas State will find what they are looking for, whether that be wins on the football field, a new coach, or perhaps even a new conference. In the meantime, they are here playing games, and their opportunities to get those wins might be as good as ever. The Sun Belt West appears to be wide open for the first time in several years. There is an outside chance of winning five or maybe even six games, but they’ll need to start playing cleaner football. They’ve turned the ball over eleven times this season and opponents have accepted 33 penalties committed by the Bobcats. They’ll need long drives and touchdowns to keep up with App State, but the numbers say it’s unlikely to happen.

The First Pick

Wack in Black 15

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs The Citadel

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Appalachian State (2-2) vs The Citadel (1-2)

Saturday, October 1st, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.63

Citadel: 42.76

Home: 1.89

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 31.76 points

VegasInsider Line: n/a

Series: App State leads 29-13

Last Meeting: Citadel 31, App State 28 (OT) October 5, 2013, Charleston, SC

Let’s just get this over with. Nobody wants to dwell much on the past. We all know we can’t change it, but we do need to learn from it. We’ve added another unprecedented tally in the fourth game of the season. An ugly one at that. Twice this season the Mountaineers have given up insane scoring runs by their opponents in their own backyard. And twice, the other side of the ball could not come through for a score to break up those runs. Everyone needs to do their job better, not just the offense, defense, special teams or coaches. It’s a group effort. We are all in this thing together. Nothing is more humbling than giving up a game that was nearly in hand. And the previous week really should have put everyone on notice that nothing is over until it actually is. Bouncing back will be a challenge, and this season is still long from over. All the goals are well within reach, and if there is anything we have learned from this season, not a single team is immune to crazy.

The last time the Mountaineers faced James Madison was fourteen years ago. It has not been that long since App State played The Citadel, but the Bulldogs had the last laugh in this series. At that time, it was unknown whether or not these teams would ever face each other again. The Mountaineers have faced Elon once since their SoCon sayonara. The Citadel remains in the SoCon, a league that really has not changed much since the Mountaineers left. Mercer is now in the SoCon, and of course, ETSU is back. The Citadel has had a couple really good years since we last saw them, but otherwise have been pretty average. More recently, they have fallen on tougher times. The fall 2021 season was highlighted with four wins, over North Greenville, VMI, Wofford and Chattanooga. The Bulldogs played 4 games in the fall of 2020, losing all of them, and played an eight game conference slate in the 2021 spring season, registering a 2-6 record.

The Citadel sports a 1-2 record coming to Boone. They were on bye last week, so the Mountaineers get consecutive opponents with an extra week of rest. You can almost say Citadel did not play the week before either, as they fell to #20 Mercer by a 17-0 score. The Bulldogs managed just 151 yards offense on 63 plays. The previous week, they hit a field goal as time expired to beat ETSU 20-17, while holding possession of the ball for nearly forty minutes and being outgained by the Buccaneers on offense. In Week 1, Campbell cruised to a 29-10 win while the Citadel gained just 222 yards on the offensive side. So, as you can see, its pretty clear that the Bulldogs have not gained a lot of yards this year. In those first three games, they average just 231 yards per game at 3.7 yards yards per play. And somehow they have still managed to average 36 minutes of possession a game.

The most interesting story coming into this game belongs to Citadel quarterback Peyton Derrick. A graduate transfer from Wofford, many will remember that Derrick began his career at App State in 2017 and he was redshirted. The following year, Derrick made a memorable throw at Penn State after Zac Thomas had to exit the game for one play. He threw a pass to Dominique Heath on 4th and 2 for 22 yards that set up a touchdown. Fast forward to 2022 and now he will face the first school he played for in college. So far this season, it has been a mixed bag Derrick. He has completed just 17 of 34 passes for 176 yards, adding a couple touchdowns and interceptions. But that is not Citadel’s game. This a triple option team, that passes to catch you off guard, although 34 passes in three games is a little more than you would expect out of a true triple option offense. Derrick has carried the ball 44 times for 96 yards on the ground. Derrick has carried the ball the most of anyone on the team, but the Bulldogs tend to spread it out quite a bit. Three other backs have rushed at least twenty-one times, but no more than twenty-nine times. The triple option remains a guessing game like it always has been.

For the last time, we’ll speak to the game last weekend, and maybe never again. It was a historic collapse. Its understandable after several hard hitting games that our beloved Mountaineers are tired. Looking for normalcy, in a game without fourth quarter heroics or sixty minutes of hell, you see moment of relief and you finally catch your breath, at halftime. That was about thirty minutes too early. Letting up is easy and continuing to fight is hard although necessary. It became a tough lesson learned that will not soon be forgotten. The Mountaineers are still capable of turning this into a great season. It’s just really tough to imagine that after last week. That’s all it is, and it can be quickly fixed. Health is a key factor. We need rest in places and we need others to step up in the meantime. Some simplification worked for the defense from Week 1 to Week 2, and maybe that is something that also needs to occur for the offense. There have just been too many scoring droughts in these opening games.

The overall theme here, is that it has been an incredibly long time since the Mountaineers have waited until the fifth game of the season to play an FCS school. And let’s not be mistaken. James Madison is not an FCS school on paper. They have been good for a long time, and just miscast in the wrong subdivision. App State was this way for a long time as well. It was not long ago that the Sun Belt was the weakest FBS conference, but in four weeks time in 2022, predictably, it has an argument for being the strongest GS conference. In reality, it has been longer than four weeks. When App State played in first Sun Belt schedule in 2014, there were adjustments, and when they were made, the Mountaineers rattled off six wins in a row to finish the season, leaving Sun Belt stalwarts such as Louisiana and Arkansas State in the dust. The Sun Belt was a bad league then. It is not a bad league now. That’s a good thing. So when conferences across the country argue about playing FCS schools, or playing an extra conference game, one wonders what they are actually looking to accomplish. Do you want FCS games to pad that win total to become bowl eligible or do you want those FCS teams actually in your conference weighing you down. Whichever direction some of these conferences plan to go, expect more chaos with tougher conferences or bloated win totals that might make you feel better about yourself than you actually are. See, the old Southern Conference was not like that. Sure you had some schools that weren’t aligned as institutions of higher learning, but you also had tough football games each week. Whether you were defending the triple option variances from Citadel, Georgia Southern, Wofford or even VMI, or the pro style offenses of Furman and Samford or the run and shoot styles that Chattanooga and Elon sometimes employed. It was different every week, and winning that conference title meant that you earned something. That is what we have now in the Sun Belt, and with that, you will have a different wild ride each and every week. So yeah, we circle back to playing a team such as The Citadel, a former conference mate, with familiarity, and they are doing essentially the same thing they have always done. The Bulldogs do not look great on a stat sheet, but that is not anything they care about. They care about giving the football players that they can recruit, the best chance to win. Forget an offense that has not scored many points. Their pressure on you, is making fewer mistakes while playing keep away. So be prepared for the keeper and the counter, the option and the pitch, and make sure you jump on that ball when it finds the turf.

The First Pick

Grays 6

Mountaineers 44

App State Football vs James Madison

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Appalachian State (2-1) vs James Madison (2-0)

Saturday, September 24th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.97

JMU: 71.57

Home: 2.11

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.51 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -7

Series: App State leads 12-4

Last Meeting: James Madison 35, App State 32 September 20, 2008, Harrisburg, VA

Caught your breath yet? Maybe we can use a different lede next week. College football has been upside down through three weeks, and it seems as if App State has been in the center of it all. Forty-point fourth quarters? Check. Knocking off a top ten opponent on the road? We have that too. Winning on a hail mary touchdown pass? Why not. App State has played just three games with nearly a seasons worth of moments. What could possibly happen next? We welcome in an old rival that also plays the part of a conference newcomer. The Dukes landed in the Sun Belt East along with Old Dominion and Marshall. This will be the seventeenth meeting between the two schools and first matchup as conference opponents. Among the more recent FCS-FBS transitions, the Dukes have the pedigree, with two national championships, and a winning history. They were rumored to have declined an invitation to the Sun Belt years ago, but could not pass it up a second time. This will be the Sun Belt opener for the Dukes, and their fans could not be more excited to renew a budding rivalry.

For the Mountaineers, this will be the fourth game of the season this weekend, but the Dukes were blessed/cursed with a Week 3 bye after playing Middle Tennessee and Norfolk State at home to begin the season. Having an extra week to prepare for an opponent could turn out beneficial, but having one so early in the season might not be. This schedule is partially a result from existing contracts and changing conferences, and subdivisions with less than a year’s notice. James Madison is still in transition and will only play eleven games this year. That means a bowl game and a Sun Belt championship is not in the cards. The Dukes administration hopes to cut the transition period in half from two years to one year. In the meantime, they are playing for pride knowing that they have just the schedule in front of them to play. Transitioning is hard enough, and during the NIL and portal era, it has to be downright difficult for roster management and recruiting.

We can say that James Madison has played just two games this year, but really, it was maybe one and a half games. Against Middle Tennessee, the Dukes started somewhat slow, with a fourteen play drive to start the game that ended with a missed field goal. That drive ate up more than six minutes of game clock. They turned the ball over on their next drive, but then scored touchdowns on three of their next four drives. Those touchdown drives did not eat up a lot of clock, using less than four minutes each. The Dukes love pouncing on your defense when they think they have you on your heels. The threat of tempo exists, and when the quarterback sees something he likes, he’ll be aggressive and attack single coverage. The run-pass-option offense is still alive and well at James Madison. The Dukes worked the Middle defense early, keeping them on the field for thirty plays in their first three drives, and then sped up the pace with 29 plays on their next six drives. The defense has to stay ready for anything when the James Madison offense is on the field.

James Madison has run up the score and racked up a lot of yardage in their first two games. That includes eye-popping numbers that are likely unsustainable over the course a full season, especially when you get into conference play. Beyond outscoring their opponents 107-14, and giving up just 21 total rushing yards, the Dukes have yet to turn the ball over. Todd Centeio has been flawless at quarterback. He’s thrown for 452 yards in essentially three halves of football, completed 66% of his passes and has nine touchdown passes. He’s hard to get a hold of and will not give up sacks. He can scramble and extend plays. The main job of the defense will be to contain him in the pocket and make sure he does not get his feet set when passing. He’ll run on design plays and also bail quickly sometimes when his first read is not there. Centeio has 139 rushing yards in addition to his near perfect passing stats. His primary target has been senior Kris Thornton, who has already amassed eighteen catches in two games, along with 247 yards and five touchdowns.

At no point this past Saturday, did the Troy game feel like one that would be decided by whoever had the ball last. But that is exactly what it turned into. Each team had nine possessions. Both teams scored four touchdowns. The difference in the game was a field goal made and a safety given. Sure, that’s five points, and the final margin was four. A certain point after attempt was not necessary, nor remotely possible. In a game of who has the ball last, its best not to give the other team points. Troy punted just twice, but ultimately their opening drive interception led to App State points, they missed a field goal, and then gave up a safety. This game really came down to situational football. One play ultimately resulted in the final tally, but it was a mixture of just enough from App State that kept them within striking distance. Consider the Mountaineer defense that came through for three sacks and an interception of Gunnar Watson. On the flipside, Chase Brice was sacked once, threw two touchdown passes, and didn’t turn the ball over.

It’s fair to say, that Madison and App fans are really not quite sure what to think about their teams. And that is just fine. It’s still September. The Dukes have played two games where they thoroughly defeated their opponents. Norfolk State is 0-3 with losses to Marshall, Madison and Hampton. Middle Tennessee sports a 2-1 record, but all they have done is get spanked by JMU, and beaten two teams with 0-3 records in Colorado State and Tennessee State. Based on the App State results, a handful of plays in each game could have changed the trajectory in those contests. App’s record could be anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0, and it wouldn’t shock you. The reason why we watch, is to see if your team eventually evolves over the course of the season. Peaking in September will not do you any favors in November. Well, we also like to win. We want to feel good. James Madison also wants to feel good. They want to know that they made the right decision to enter FBS. They’ll hit some stumbling blocks. There is not a program out there that has not or will not. But they will also have those moments that validate that decision. Their schedule sets up nicely, with only five road games, but they are big ones, and every game is on Saturday. But keep an eye on a stretch of games where they are on the road four out of five weeks with a bye week sandwiched in. But this JMU team knows nothing about App State from the past. This rekindling of a predictive rivalry is among fans alone. Still, players on both sides of the ball have known nothing but winning within their program. Although Madison may have not been tested this year, they have known how to get it done for sometime. Conversely, App State has been tested several times in three games. Are we expecting a game into the fourth quarter? Is that more likely than a multiple score game going either direction? I believe so. But there is one theory at play here not many have touched on. The scoreboard said the Mountaineers scored more points last week. However, I think this team comes out and plays like they lost. Offense will be crisper and the defense will play better. That should be more than enough for a comfortable win.

The First Pick

Miracle Whip 28

Mountaineers 38

Appalachian State vs North Carolina

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Appalachian State (0-0) vs North Carolina (1-0)

Saturday, September 3rd, 2022 12:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 75.47

UNC: 74.14

Home: 2.14

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.47 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -1

Series: Tied 1-1

Last Meeting: App State 34, UNC 31, September 21, 2019, Chapel Hill, NC

This is not your typical season opener on the mountain. Appalachian State has never hosted a Power 5 opponent on college football’s traditional opening weekend. The Mountaineers have been the visiting team several times at Wake Forest, NC State, and East Carolina for opening weekend. Only Wake can say they came to Boone. Last year’s ECU game does not count, but it does, you get the drift. And now that North Carolina is coming to Boone, it opens the door for the NC State to do the same. How about that timing? Anyway, you have heard the call to action for some time now. The need to describe a game and atmosphere that will certainly be different and perhaps unprecedented. We have been through this before. The University of Miami came to Boone, and we wanted to win that game, probably too much. Wake Forest came to town, and we wanted that one too. That turned into a classic App-Wake game. But in both of those games, the Apps came up short. Is Saturday different? Yes. For one, there will be a few more fans there. Prior to Miami and Wake, we knew the attendance record would fall. Secondly, App is playing that blue team. Most are the opposite of indifferent about North Carolina. You either love them, or loathe them. Most of the alums are dissimilar. We like different things, and that’s why this is different.

Plenty of us remember, the 21st night of September. That was 2019, three seasons ago, and a lot has changed for App State and North Carolina. A slew of new players, a head coach for one side, and expectations. That Tar Heel team that lost to App State in 2019 finished the season 7-6 overall with a win over Temple in the Military Bowl. The 2020 Heels finished 8-4 with a loss to Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl. And last years UNC team limped to a 6-7 overall record and lost to South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Carolina fans are waiting for Mack Brown 2.0 to take off. The recruiting is there, but the development and on field success is not. What good are 4 and 5-star recruits coming out of high school if they never get better in college? The first Mack Brown era at North Carolina came with some bad and some good, a little bit of great. That little bit of great came in his final two seasons, and sent him to Texas for sixteen years. Brown was 69-46-1 at UNC in ten seasons. Since his return to Chapel Hill, Brown and the Tar Heels are 22-17 counting last week’s win over a depleted Florida A&M team. We are not talking about a significant drop off here, and its maybe too early to write off Mack Brown in general. In his first tenure he won 60% of his games, and in his second tenure at UNC, he’s won 56.4% of his games. But at this point in his career, and based on what he has done at North Carolina in the past, you kind of are what you are.

Typically, the first game of the season is the toughest to predict. But for the first time, App State has a Week 1 opponent who played the previous week. This was intentional. Initially, UNC-Florida A&M was to be played on September 17th. In late August 2021, the schools announced a date change to August 27th, 2022. This gives North Carolina two weeks after playing Georgia State next weekend to gear up for Notre Dame in Chapel Hill on September 24th. Sounds like smart scheduling to me. Whether North Carolina benefits this weekend against App State for playing last week remains to be seen. In the meantime, we have seen the tape and have game statistics to share with the masses. Appears the Tar Heel faithful have crowned Drake Maye as the chosen one, after one football game. After winning a fall camp battle over Jacolby Criswell, the son of another former UNC quarterback, Maye, led his team to a 56-24 thumping of Florida A&M. Maye threw four first half touchdown passes, and the Heels needed all of that in the first half. They led 28-14 at the break, and benefitted from a late turnover in the second quarter by the Rattlers to extend their lead. Regardless, this was a ballgame into the third quarter before another costly turnover by A&M that the Tar Heels turned into a touchdown.

Let us dive more into Maye and the Tar Heels offense. The coaching staff has made it no secret how they want to use Josh Downs. They want to get him the ball. Of Maye’s thirty-six passing attempts, twelve, or one-third, of them went in the direction of Downs. Those twelve targets turned into nine receptions and seventy-eight yards and two touchdowns. One of Downs scores went for 27 yards on a play action pass after the aforementioned third quarter turnover by A&M. On that play, Downs suffered an injury to his knee, calling it “just a bruise”, but was favoring it as he ran off the sideline. Outside of that play, the Rattlers did a pretty decent job of containing Downs considering their circumstances. Yes, Downs scored twice, on plays where he caught the ball in the end zone, but on his seven other receptions, Florida A&M limited him to just sixteen yards after the catch. It was the rest of the Tar Heels who exploited the Rattler secondary. The remaining twenty completions by Maye went for 112 yards after the catch, which comes out to very healthy average of 5.6 yards after the catch.

For the Mountaineers, they were able to watch the Carolina-A&M in real time. There has been plenty of debate whether fresh film on an opponent is an advantage or not. Both sides of the argument hold merit. Good coaches fit their personnel into what they do well. Surely UNC defensive coordinator Gene Chizik would have loved to see this App State team, with its fifth playcaller in as many years, once before going in blind. Chizik and every other coach who faces App State knows that this team has an identity. Through several coordinator changes over the past half decade, that same winning formula has been ever present. Strong on the offensive line, deep at running back, play good solid defense and tackle. It’s what we App State does, and its been that way long before the most recent assistant coach hires. This team has enough pieces of that formula to make those things happen. The only unknown for the offense comes from an outsiders perspective. It comes down to an equation of replacing lost production and how returning production can fill those gaps on the perimeter. Dashaun Davis is in his fourth year on the team, and remains a sophomore by eligibility. He has practiced for three years. He played in the 2019 UNC-App game. His career numbers may not pop off the page, but when his team needed him in 2020, in a game that was highly impacted by covid protocols, he caught six passes. Christian Wells is also in his fourth year, and was around in 2019. A playmaker anytime he touches the ball, Wells has seven touchdowns on only twenty-eight career receptions. Christian Horn has not scored, but has averaged 15.6 yards per catch in limited action as he enters his third season. These unknowns have been around, and its a matter of time before they are household names.

North Carolina’s last win on the road occurred on December 12th, 2020. That was a 62-26 win over Miami in which Michael Carter Jr and Javonte Williams combined for 544 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Both of those players are in the NFL. Since, the Tar Heels are 0-7 in road or neutral field games and have given up 30 or more points in six of those seven games for an average of 35.5 points surrendered. In those seven games, they faced all types of opponents and played in some very interesting venues. Four of those stadiums host NFL teams in Miami, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Charlotte. The college campuses included Notre Dame Stadium, an unbelievably lit Lane Stadium at Virginia Tech in last years opener, and Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, where NC State made an unbelievable comeback. All of these places are big time environments, and not your everyday road game. As we all know, the Heels have never been to Kidd Brewer. The sheer volume of people will turn Kidd Brewer into something nobody has witnessed for a sporting event in its history. Since Miami and Wake in 2016 and 2017, Kidd Brewer Stadium has lost the track, added a north end zone building and regraded Miller Hill and brought it closer to the field. Comparing Kidd Brewer as a venue to some of these much larger stadiums might be a stretch, but comparing atmosphere, it certainly can hold its own. A lot of us got glimpses of that last year in games against Marshall and Coastal Carolina. Now add another 10,000 or so fans. Still, a building cannot win a game, players do. That North Carolina defense has not travelled in a long time, and still looked slightly vulnerable at times on Saturday night. The Rattlers passing game was nearly a push against Carolina’s, only separated by a trio of touchdown passes. Drake Maye got the headlines, but A&M threw for 279 yards with a nearly nonexistent running game, and an offensive line that was short on depth. Mack Brown said that the advantage of playing first, before App State, was that they were exposed. He knows what problems his team has, and so do the Mountaineer coaches. He also mentioned winning in road comes with playing better. Mack knows how to win a presser, and how to talk to the media. This game is a total toss up. Both teams can win, and neither team can play poorly and win. The difference comes to down to experience. This App State group may be young on snaps in spots, but they are long on experience, whether that be as redshirts or otherwise. The Heels are a little young for my liking and until they learn to win these tough road games, its easy to bet against them.

The First Pick

Bah Bah Sheep 27

Mountaineers 35