Men’s Basketball pounds Mocs, earns SoCon bye

Pregame:

Line opened at 5, favoring the Mountaineers, and has dropped throughout the morning, now down to 3.5. This is free money today. If this line keeps dropping, or even settles back to 4, the Mountaineers are the play here. I was lukewarm on Chattanooga at +5.

Postgame:

The season was basically on the line, and Appalachian responded in a way they had not all season long. Appalachian could not miss in the first half, scoring a season high 55 points in the first half that included nine three pointers. The Mountaineers cruised in the second half as Chattanooga never really threatened. The Mountaineers were led by their outgoing seniors who played their last game in the Holmes Center. Jamaal Trice scored 13 points in his final home game, where Appalachian donned black uniforms for the first time in the thirteen year history of the Holmes Center. Nathan Healy scored 20 points and grabbed fourteen rebounds on his senior day. Healy was emotional in an awestruck way while trying to find out how she acknowledge the just over 2100 fans in attendance.

To imagine the journey that Nathan Healy went on these past fours years is inspiring. He was a freshman on the 2009-2010 team that was one game short of advancing to the NCAA tournament after losing to Wofford in the SoCon championship game in Charlotte. Healy had only played in thirty career games entering his senior season, and had only started in eleven of those games. Healy had scored 367 points in his first three years in the black and gold. This season, Healy scored 422 points. He inserted himself at the leader of the team from the first game to the last, and will always be remembered on the mountain. Healy started every game this season, leading the team in scoring, rebounds, field goals made, three pointers made, blocks, steals, and free throw percentage.

Although Appalachian earned the fourth seed and a bye in the SoCon tourney, their road is difficult without upsets. Appalachian could face Davidson if the higher seeds win their games, and Davidson provides the worst matchup in the conference for Appalachian. On the flip side, no team has ever won four games in four days in the oldest conference tournament in the nation. The Mountaineers may have given themselves a tougher road to a championship, however, it is one that will require fewer games to play.

We finished 15-9 picking against the spread in Appalachian games this season to date. Appalachian was also 15-9, as there were two games where I did not take the Mountaineers, and went 1-1 in those games. Those alternating picks evened out which provided the equal records. Last season we finished 10-14 during the regular season, which is marked improvement from one year to the next. Our season review and tournament preview will be posted later this week.

Men’s Basketball edges Samford in 2OT’s

The game between Appalachian and Samford on Thursday night in the Holmes Dome is about as big of a game that Appalachian will play this season. Elon has already wrapped up the North division crown, while Samford, Appalachian and Western Carolina will fight it out for the fourth overall seed for the SoCon tourney. Western and Appalachian play the same teams in reverse order in Samford and Chattanooga both at home, while Samford is on the road for both games. Whichever team can go 2-0 this weekend will win that fourth seed most likely, but is extremely possible that this thing gets real weird and we head to break this tie on some ridiculous rule the SoCon invented.

Samford 9-7 .563 6-3 3-4 0-0 W1 11-18 .379 7-6 4-10 0-2 W1
Appalachian State 8-8 .500 5-2 3-6 0-0 L1 12-15 .444 8-4 4-11 0-0 L1
Western Carolina 8-8 .500 3-4 5-4 0-0 L2 12-17 .414 6-5 5-11 1-1 W1

If Appalachian can go 2-0, that puts them at 10-8, and Samford could finish 10-8 at best, by beating Western, who would finish 9-7 in this scenario. Tiebreaker would go to Appalachian for beating second seeded Elon once.

If Appalachian can go 2-0, Samford goes 0-2, and Western goes 2-0, which would tie Appalachian and Western, the tiebreaker would go to Appalachian, once again for beating Elon once.

Appalachian could go 1-1 and still get the fourth seed, but it starts and begins with beating Samford. Without beating Samford, Appalachian’s seed will be out of their control.

Just for fun, if Western and Samford tie at 10-8, the tiebreaker would go to Samford for beating Charleston once.

Can the Mountaineers beat Samford. Of course, if they play to their best game and to their potential. In the first matchup, Samford played lights outs, hitting all the shots they needed to hit, quieting every Mountaineer run. The Bulldogs shot 55% from the field and 47% from three point land. Any time a shoots that well, it is going to be tough sledding beating them on the road, seven hours from your campus.

The early line is 3.5 points, favoring the Mountaineers. As has happened all year long, the line will move. Appalachian has covered in every game against North Division opponents at home this year, but has struggled recently against the South. Samford has covered the spread in twelve of its last fourteen games, with the other two games resulting in pushes. That is an incredible stretch that has to come to an end soon. We will watch the line and make our pick tomorrow.

Postgame:

In order to remain in contention for the bye, Appalachian did what it needed to do, even if it took them ten extra minutes. The Mountaineers led the entire first half, at one point by as many as twelve points, but as has been the case all season, Appalachian would relinquich that lead. After trailing by twelve points in the first half, Samford went on a long run that lasted close to twenty minutes of game time that put them ahead by eight points with 4:08 to play in the game. During that stretch, Samford outscored the Mountaineers 39-19.

When Samford grabbed their largest lead of the game with 4:08 to play in the second half, at 59-51, it was the last points they would score in regulation. Appalachian went on a 8-0 run themselves. Jamaal Trice scored five of his team leading 18 points during that stretch.

The first overtime period was an awful five minutes of basketball to watch. The two teams combined to shoot 1/9 in the period, with Appalachian’s two points coming on the free throw line by the most unlikely of players in Michael Obacha. The second overtime saw Appalachian score nine points in the first three minutes, and held on to win down the stretch as Samford failed to score in the final 2:18 of the game.

Appalchian improves its record against the spread to 14-9, which is our record as well. Saturday could bring about an interesting number consider the nature of how the first game between Appalachian and Chattanooga went down. Appalachian will be in a situation where they can win the game and secure the fourth seed and final bye heading into the SoCon tournament.

 

Men’s Basketball 77 The Citadel 80

The Citadel is not your average six win team. Even though three of their wins came in 2012, the Bulldogs have knocked off three SoCon teams this season. All of those SoCon opponents came from the weak South Division, and by using the transitive property, all of teams Citadel has beaten, Appalachian has also defeated. Of their SoCon wins, Georgia Southern is athletic, but a poor team overall, Wofford is terribly young, and Furman is about as untalented as it gets in the conference. The Bulldogs are also 2-10 on the road this season, with two of those wins coming in Statesboro and Greenville. In fact the Bulldogs have not won a game this season played north of the NC/SC border.

Although the Bulldogs are a tough team to scout, they do stick to a zone defense and like to get the ball inside. Rarely do you see a strategy in college basketball, where on one side of the court, you try to slow the game down, and on the other, try to lenghthen the game by drawing fouls in the frontcourt. Three Citadel players average in double figures, led by Mike Groselle, scoring 15.1 points per game, while also pulling in 7.3 rebounds. PJ Horgan pours in 11.1 points per game while adding 6.4 rebounds per game. Matt Van Scyoc adds 10.9 points per game.

The key for Appalachian of late has been the play of Michael Obacha. He is easily the most improved player on the team this season. Obacha has improved his presence in the post, getting open for easy layups, and has avoided foul trouble for the most part. Add to that, Obacha was shooting well under 50% from the free throw line earlier in the season, and has improved to 50%. It does not seem like much, but his efficiency has increased and he just looks more confident on the line.

We will update the spread in the morning. Our feeling is that Appalachian will be favored, and it could be close to ten points.

1:04 PM UPDATE: Appalachian is favored by 9.5 points. This is a really tough one. App has had trouble a couple times this season covering at home to South Division foes. I am really feeling taking Citadel in this one. Only some serious line movement will point me towards Appalachian on this one.

7:37 PM UPDATE: Holy bonkers the spread moved to 10.5. This is shocking. I just don’t feel it. App may lead by more than 10 before the game is over, but I don’t think they hold it. I am taking The Citadel to cover 10.5.

Postgame:

We are going to make this short and sweet because complaining is not going to change the result. Appalachian led by nine points in the first half, playing against a glorified intramural team, and squandered the lead and was forced to tie the game at halftime on a 75 foot, one-handed heave by Tevin Baskin that hit off the backboard and found the bottom of the net as time expired. Once again that tied the game at 34 at halftime.

Without some three pointers by Mike Neal and Tab Hamilton late in the game, Appalachian would have never found themselves in contention for overtime. The Mountaineers hit eight threes in the second half, which accounted for 24 of their 34 second half points. Even though Michael Obacha has played better of late, he has yet to play against a player like Mike Groselle, who plays a different style of center than any player in the league. He is their point guard in the post and their entire offense goes through him. Appalachian’s post players never make the pass back out of the post to an open shooter while The Citadel lives on it.

Somehow, Appalachian still finds itself in position to secure the bye in the SoCon Tourney that they should not want, nor deserve. The bye will come down to the game next weekend, starting with Samford on Thursday night. Appalachian trails Samford by one game in the North standings. Appalachian and Western Carolina are tied for fifth overall, and working out the tiebreaker scenarios will be futile until after Thursday’s results. This is much is certain, if Appalachian wants the fourth seed and the bye that comes with it, beating Samford comes first.

Appalachian did not cover the spread, and did not cover in a very lopsided manner. The Mountaineers were nearly 11 point favorites and perhaps turned that into the worst loss in school history. I went with The Citadel, the first time I had taken the opponent since East Carolina. Now Appalachian and myself are 14-8 against the spread this season. After starting 10-0 to start the season, App is 4-8 since.

Men’s Basketball 58 Elon 61

Coaches like to tell their teams that the next basketball game, is the biggest one of our season. Appalachian’s game against Elon will be the biggest game to date, as a win or loss in either direction has big implications as far as tournament seeding and bye possibilities. Elon holds a 2.5 game lead over Appalachian and if the Mountaineers could cut the lead to 1.5 games, the pressure would be on Elon, as Appalachian would also hold the tiebreaker over Elon, going 2-0 against the Phoenix this season. A loss would all but end Appalachian’s chances to win the North Division. Who would have thought the Mountaineers would be in this position after the way they started the season?

Elon is fresh off of beating Furman by four points last Saturday. Elon’s big man, Lucas Troutman hurt his ankle in the win, only playing five minutes and is considered questionable for Thursday. Troutman was the team’s leading scorer at 15.1 points per game. Troutman scored fourteen against Appalachian earlier this season. Sharp shooter Jack Isenbarger is putting up 14.1 points per game, but only scored nine points in the first meeting. Isengarger has only been held to single digit scoring seven times this season. Tab Hamilton did a great job defensively against Isenbarger in the first game.

The defensive end is where Appalachian is going to have to win this game. Elon has shot 50% or better only four times this season, winning every games except against Appalachian. After losing to Appalachian, Elon secured seven straight wins, but has cooled off of late, losing by ten at Wofford prior to their win over Furman. The key will be keeping Elon from shooting threes, as three players have hit 40 or more threes this season. Samson Tanner has also been a huge spark plug for Elon lately. Tanner did not score against Appalachian in the first game, but has scored 82 points in his last nine games. Tanner averaged 5.4 points prior to going scoreless against Appalachian, but has averaged 9.1 points per game in his last nine games. Elon is 0-3 this season when Tanner does not score.

Appalachian only has three road wins this season, two in conference play. Last year, Elon barnstormed the Mountaineers in Burlington. Alumni Gym is not exactly what I would call a tough place to play, but it is very cozy and their students are annoying to listen to. Nathan Healy and Tevin Baskin both had big games the last time out against Elon as they forced Lucas Troutman into four fouls and only 25 minutes played. The Apps must attack the rim and challenge Elon in the paint. Appalachian does not have what it takes to get into a jump shooting contest against Elon.

10:14 AM UPDATE: Elon is currently favored by 8.5 points. This line is going to move today at some point, and I don’t think we will see 9. I think this will settle at 8. I am leaning Elon tonight, based on last year’s game.

6:56 PM UPDATE: Elon has to cover nine big ones. I just don’t think they will do it. I think it’s possible, but this game means too much for Appalachian to come out flat. One more time for the Apps.

Postgame:

It happened again. Appalachian led by seven points with 4:23 to play in the second half. From that point on, Elon outscored Appalachian 14-4 to all but clinch a first round bye in the SoCon tournament. Appalachian now must chase down Western Carolina, who defeated UNCG 70-68. In fact, Appalachian fell from second place to fourth in the North. That is how fragile the standings in the division are right now. Every win is big, and every loss is devastating. If App is not careful, a loss to Greensboro on Sunday could put them in fifth place, with every other team in the North playing a winnable game.

Elon started the game quickly and ran out to an early lead, but Appalachian countered with a 13-4 run in the first half to take a 21-14 lead. Elon battled back to tie the game at 23 thanks to Jack Isenbarger scoring four points before Appalachian called a timeout. Isenbarger would hit a three with just under a minute left in the first half to give Elon a 31-26 lead at halftime. Appalachian only scored 5 points in the last 7:47 of the first half. If you add the last few moments of each half together, Appalachian combined to score 9 points in the final twelve minutes and change of each half.

The game was one where several Mountaineer players did not show up, and this team cannot afford not to have everyone playing well and expect to win. Tab Hamilton was scoreless. Mike Neal was 3/10. Nathan Healy was in borderline foul trouble parts of the game and could not play as aggressive as he would like to. The team shot under 40% for the game, and only hit 3/16 from behind the arc. The real difference, App recorded seven assists, while Elon assisted on fourteen of their twenty-two made baskets.

Appalachian did manage to cover the spread, which would have been much sweeter if they could have held on for the win. They move to 13-7 on the year while our picks lag behind one game, as has been the case the entire season. Greensboro will bring a challenge, as Appalachian can be better than UNCG when they want to be, but the Spartans have one of the best one-two punches in the conference in Armstrong and Simpkins. Should be an interesting line tomorrow.

Appalachian Men & Women Sweep Furman

Women’s:

Appalachian needs to get respond quickly to its first home loss of the season. The best way to do that might be by playing the Furman Paladins. Surprisingly, Furman has won two games in a row over Western Carolina and Samford, and has been playing a bunch of close games of late. Furman only lost by three to conference leading Chattanooga, which represents their only loss in their past five games. Appalachian made rather easy work of the Paladins earlier this season in a fourteen point win. Furman (10-12, 6-7) is playing for seeding down the stretch. They are only 2.5 games behind Appalachian and 1.5 games behind fifth place Samford. If they could finish around 10-10 in conference play, that could sneak them into the sixth seed, and perhaps into the fifth seed, depending on Samford and other tiebreakers.

Appalachian is a much more skilled team than Furman, and I fully expect the Mountaineers to respond to their poor performance on Saturday. Furman is always a game team, and they beat Appalachian two years ago in Boone in one of the final homes games of the season. The game had no impact on conference standings, but it was a gloomy loss.

Postgame:

It was a big night for the stars of the women’s team. Appalachian had to fight to keep Furman at bay for the entire game, but their efforts were good enough for a ten point win. Anna Freeman got behind the defense for several easy layups that led to her shooting 9/15 from the field for 24 points. Anna also was big on the glass, pulling down 12 rebounds. Maryah Sydnor was also effective scoring 19 points and Kelsey Sharkey continued her strong play with 10 points and seven rebounds.

As a team, Appalachian only attempted three shots from behind the arc, but went to the free throw line often. The Mountaineers were 19/25 from the line, outscoring Furman by twelve points at the charity stripe. Appalachian also outrebounded Furman by nine and actually hit the offensive boards for one of the first times all season. The Mountaineers had been getting killed on the offensive glass, but grabbed eleven on Monday evening. Next up for the Mountaineers is Wofford on Saturday for the annual Play4Kay charity game.

C-Note: Anna Freeman scored her 1700th point in the first half, and her 24 points for the game took her to 1,710 points for her career. Anna grabbed her 900th rebound three games ago against Georgia Southern and currently has 918 career rebounds.

Men:

Appalachian and Furman will face off for the first and only time this season in the regular season. Furman has had a rough year, but has been playing better of late as well. The Paladins(6-16, 3-8) are in the midst of a three game losing streak. Their three conference wins are over UNCG, Georgia Southern and Wofford, all since January 14th. The Paladins are 1-9 on the road this year overall, that only win coming at UNCG.

Colin Reddick is the only Paladin averaging in double figures at 12.9 points per game. Charlie Reddick adds 9.8 points per game and Stephen Croone adds 9.3 points per game. Both Reddick’s lead Furman in rebounding, combining for almost twelve rebounds per game. Furman is fresh off of a four game homestand and will be playing their first road game since January 24th.

Appalachian remains in contention for the fourth seed in the conference tournament. Appalachian is in a tie for fifth with Western Carolina at 6-6, sitting only a half game behind Samford, who sits at 6-5, having played one fewer game. Appalachian has already split with Western this season, and will play Samford in a couple of weeks at home. This game is one that the Mountaineers need in order to stay in contention. It is a game that should be considered a must-win, especially with a big game at Elon on Thursday looming. The remainder of the schedule for Appalachian stay in the state of North Carolina. Three home games follow the road games at Elon, and Greensboro on Sunday.

The spread has opened up at 7.5 points. Furman has covered some games recently, and that is a shaky number. If it goes higher, I will be highly tempted to take Furman.

2:13 UPDATE: Line has dropped to 6.5, which I fully expected. I believe that is a great 50/50 number. Furman is bad, but can Appalachian respond after the whooping at Davidson? We will ride the Apps.

Postgame:

Another game, another long stretch without scoring points, allowing the visiting team to get back in the game. Appalachian led by 18 points in the first half, at 34-16 with 4:13 remaining in the first half. It appeared Appalachian was going to cruise to an easy victory, until the Mountaineers decided to go to the locker room with time still remaining. Not only did Appalachian not hit a field goal in the final four minutes of the first half, they could not even get to the free throw line. They went scorless in the final minutes of the first half.

Furman pulled to within six points at halftime and slowly chipped away at the Mountaineer lead. With 1:31 to play, Furman cut the deficit to one point after hitting a three. Appalachian would outscore Furman 8-3 in the final ninety seconds to hold onto second place in the SoCon North. Chattanooga knocked off Samford to give the Bulldogs their sixth conference loss, one half game behind Appalachian and Western who are tied for second, 2,5 games behind first place Elon. Appalachian vists Elon on Thursday night, which will basically eliminate the Mountaineers from SoCon North contention if they lose.

Nathan Healy had a double-double for the Mountaineers with 14 points and 12 rebounds. Michael Obacha scored a season high 14 points, by going 6/6 from the free throw line. Obacha has been shooting 50% from the free throw line prior to the Furman game.

Appalachian fell one point shy of covering the spread in heartbreaking fashion. That is the second time this season Appalachian lost a huge lead at home with a manageable spread and lost the cover. The other was Georgia Southern. We expect Appalachian to be underdogs to Elon on Thursday night.

Men’s Basketball 52 Davidson 87

If this game is anything like the last matchup between Appalachian and Davidson, it will be over before it starts. Davidson executed a brilliant game, hitting over 50% of their shots for the game, and Appalachian played one of its poorest games of the season. This does not suggest that is the sole reason Davidson won two weeks ago. Davidson is a better team, but they have not been as good this season as they have been in the past. It is a beatable team, but only one team in conference play has been able to beat them this season. Somehow, Georgia Southern beat Davidson in Statesboro, while Appalachian is fresh off of a sweep of the Eagles on Saturday night.

The scheduling gods were not kind to Appalachian this season when they have had to face Davidson. Appalachian was in Statesboro on Thursday night for an overtime game, and luckily had the sense to fly to Statesboro for the game. Earlier this season, Appalachian was just a few days removed from the western swing of Samford and Chattanooga.

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian was concerned over the status of two of their starters. Jay Canty re-aggravated a thumb injury two days before Davidson and was basically ineffective. Mike Neal turned his ankle two days prior and was also equally unproductive. This time around, Neal and Canty appear to be healthy and Nathan Healy has played two great games in a row. Oddly enough, Appalachian always played Davidson tighter in Belk Arena versus in Boone. No team has beaten Davidson more times in the past few years in Mecklenburg County than Appalachian.

Davidson has now moved to a 17 point favorite over Appalachian, after opening at 16. The Wildcats have never been good against the spread, and that notion holds true this season as they are 8-11. Since beating Appalachian, Davidson has shot under 30% from three point land in every game. The ‘Cats are 3-3-1 in conference games against the spread, but I get this feeling that 17 is just way to big of a number. The first time around, these two teams played on the opposite end of the spectrum. I seriously doubt it happens again in the same matter. It will not take much for me to take Davidson, but I believe this line gets bigger before gametime, and my feeling, once again is that Appalachian will cover.

Postgame:

Our feeling was this game was perhaps going to a lot closer than the first meeting between the two rivals. We could not have been more wrong. Davidson buried Appalachian early and often en route to a thirty-five point win. There is no secret, Davidson is much better, and on defense, Appalachian remains terrible. Davidson had more assists than Appalachian had made field goals.  The Wildcats shot 65% in the first half. The score was never tied, and Davidson led the entire way.

Nathan Healy led the Mountaineers in scoring with 13 points but was only 4/11 from the field. Tevin Baskin chipped in twelve points in nineteen minutes. Mike Neal scored nine points, but was 3/12 from the field. Jay Canty also scored only four points, and was 1/10 from the field. The Mountaineers shot 30% from the field for the entire game.

Due to the nature of the game, Brian Okam was able to get a few minutes late and made the most of them. Okam played ten minutes, but had 4 rebounds and two blocked shots in the limited action. Normally one would insert a joke that says something about, you know the Mountaineers are in trouble when Brian Okam is a bright spot. Right now, I personally believe that Okam might be a better play than Michael Obacha right now. I have not seen much improvement in Obacha all season, and he and Okam are basically the same player. They are both foul prone and offensively limited. So why not start the guy who is four inches taller and three years older? Okam may be a better option in the short term as the season may have grown long on the freshman. Now is the time to use Okam more if there are any intentions of using him in the conference tournament.

Appalachian did not cover the spread, their worst ATS loss in over 40 games. There is not much more to talk about. Appalachian is 12-6 ATS the spread this season and our picks are 11-7.

Men’s Basketball 91 Georgia Southern 86

It was just two weeks ago when Appalachian ran off to a big lead over Georgia Southern at home, and then melted down, and allowed the Eagles to force overtime. The Mountaineers went on to win that game, but the result was more of a relief than anything. I was asked tonight by a big Mountaineer fan to sprinkle some magic ferry dust over the team to get them playing better, on a more consistent basis. We both agreed, this team looks really good when they play well, and really bad when they play bad. There is not a middle ground with this team.

With the teams playing so recently, there really is not a lot to talk about. Appalachian has a higher ceiling, meaning their best is better than Georgia Southern, but the Eagles hold the wild card. They are a team that is much better at home, where they have beaten Davidson and Charleston. At the same time, the Eagles lost to The Citadel at home and most recently, and snuck by Chattanooga by two points. This game all depends on which team is hot at the right time. For whatever reason, Appalachian has had a tough time in Hanner Fieldhouse and a road win would be big for their SoCon seeding situation.

Line opened up at +3 this morning for Appalachian and has since bumped to +4. The way the line moves have gone this season, means that Georgia Southern is definitely favored in this matchup. We thought the spread would be lower. This is a tough call, as even some of the better Appalachian teams over the years have had a tough time in Statesboro. I am going to hold my official pick until this afternoon, but I am currently leaning toward Ga. Southern. This could potentially be the first time I have picked against Appalachian since their first game of the season.

6:20 Line is consistent, this is a very tough call. I don’t like it, but I am gonna take App to cover. Maybe they will come through.

Postgame:

This is an example of another game that was not pretty, and provided more Maalox moments than any fan would like to see. Appalachian was down by ten points at halftime, surged ahead in the closing minutes, before allowing Georgia Southern to force overtime in the closing seconds for the second time this season.  Applachian held a seven point lead with 2:40 to play in regulation, but Southern went on a 11-4 run to erase the deficit. Mike Neal attempted four three throws in the final 0:37 that would have extended the Mountaineer lead and made it more difficult for Southern to tie. The Eagles also had a chance with three seconds to play to take the lead, but could only connect on one free throw, which sent the game into overtime.

Appalachian caught fire in the second half and overtime. The Mountaineers scored 27 points in the first twenty minutes of the game. In the second half, Appalachian exploded for 46 points and scored 18 in the five minute overtime period. In overtime, Appalachian made every shot they took, three from the field and twelve on the charity stripe. essentially that was the difference in the game. Even though Appalachian could have iced the game in regulation with free throws, they took advantage in overtime, and for the most part of the game. Appalachian did not finish with a great percentage on the line, but were able to get there enough to make it count. Forty-three free throw attempts has got to be the most attempted this season.

Nathan Healy tied his career high for the second straight game with 24 points and 11 rebounds, including two blocks and two steals. Mike Neal finished with 13 points and 9 rebounds, but did commit eight of App’s fifteen turnovers. Jay Canty scored 15 points and grabbed eight rebounds. Tab Hamilton added 16 points, and hit two of App’s three field goals in overtime. Tevin Baskin fouled out, but scored 15 points in twenty five minutes of action.

Appalachian is now 12-5 against the spread this season, after starting the season with ten straight covers, losing five in a row, and now have won in back to back game. We continue to be one game behind the Mountaineers at 11-6. The early line for the Davidson game stands at 16, and this will probably move tomorrow with a late tipoff. The Mountaineers secured a huge win, almost a must win, in the SoCon standings. Western Carolina and Samford are slumping right now with four straight losses. Elon also lost last night, which puts Appalachian two game out of first place with seven to play. App and Elon have the same opponents down the stretch for the most part. Elon has the entire North Division remaining, along with Furman and Davidson, while App has played Western twice, and gets The Citadel, Davidson and Furman along with their remaining North Division opponents.

SoCon Men’s Basketball SoCon Overall
Team Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak
North
Elon 8-3 .727 4-1 4-2 0-0 L1 15-8 .652 9-2 6-6 0-0 L1
Appalachian State 6-5 .545 4-1 2-4 0-0 W2 10-12 .455 7-3 3-9 0-0 W2
Samford 5-5 .500 3-2 2-3 0-0 L4 7-16 .304 4-5 3-9 0-2 L4
Western Carolina 5-6 .455 2-3 3-3 0-0 L4 8-15 .348 4-4 3-10 1-1 L4
UNCG 5-6 .455 4-2 1-4 0-0 W1 7-15 .318 6-6 1-9 0-0 W1
Chattanooga 4-6 .400 2-2 2-4 0-0 W1 9-14 .391 6-7 3-7 0-0 W1

Men’s Basketball 74 Western Carolina 65

For the first time this season, in its twenty-first game, Appalachian will finally play its first game this season against a conference opponent for the second time. Way back in December, Appalachian went to Cullowhee, holding a ten point lead at halftime, and an eight point lead with ten minutes to play, before finally falling to the Catamounts by six points. It was the scene of the crime of the infamous “Worst Free Throw Ever”, now with a lowly 18 million YouTube views. That game was actually a sign of things to come for Appalachian. The Mountaineers controlled most of the game, before losing late. Reminds us all so much of just about every game in the last three weeks, namely Chattanooga, Georgia Southern, most recently Charleston. The difference between that game, and those most recent games are that the expectation level was different. In December, when the Apps played Western, they were still without Mike Neal, and nobody expected the Mountaineers to win that game. When Neal returned, the Mountaineers started playing better, and the expectations grew with a miniature winning streak in early January.

It is almost like the season has come full circle to an extent. The Mountaineers are back to their ways of losing games where they held leads, or went scoreless for long periods of time. Another difference is that Western has lost four of their last five games, mostly to teams that Appalachian has played very recently. Western has kept their games close, but have not been able to close them out, very similar to how Appalachian is playing. Western’s slump began on January 14th with a loss to Elon, which they followed up with a loss to Samford on the road. The Catamounts then outscored Chattanooga, before losing by single digits to both Georgia Southern and Davidson.

Western features four players averaging double digit points, led by Trey Sumler at 17.6 per game. Tawaski King is their main post player, socring 11.5 points a game while grabbing 5.8 rebounds. Three pointer shooter Tom Tankelwicz has hit 58 treys on the season while shooting at a 40% clip. Brandon Boggs chips in 10.4 points per game.

The question for Appalachian is whether or not Mike Neal will make a difference in this game. Appalachian took good care of the basketball with only nine turnovers in the first matchup, but could not hit a shot in the second half from anywhere. The real different is the play of Tevin Baskin, who only played two minuted in the first game. Baskin brings a lot of athleticism to the Mountaineer lineup, and really is the only fresh player on the team. Baskin has been scoring points and grabbing rebounds in bunches in the last few games, but the problem is, Appalachian has not been winning.

Western has lost the last four games against the spread where they were favored, and is 4-0-1 in its last five games where they are underdogs. Appalachian, as we have detailed on a weekly basis, has been the streakiest team in college basketball against the spread. The Mountaineers covered the first ten games, and have not covered their last five games. Something has to give soon, or does it? I think these two teams are very even, and the Mountaineers were undermanned back in December. My educated guess is that we could see a PK or Appalachian favored by two points.

8:51 AM UPDATE: When we checked the line late last night and this morning, the Mountaineers were considered 1.5 point favorites, and that seems just about right for me. Since I want the Apps to win, I will gladly take a small number.

Postgame:

Appalachian held off a late Western Carolina rally and held on for their fifth conference win of the season in a nine point win. Appalachian controlled most of the game, leading by as many as fourteen points in the first half. Western never led in the game, but cut Appalachian’s lead to one point with two minutes to play at 65-64. The Mountaineers finished the game on a 9-1 run, with Nathan Healy scoring seven of his 24 points in the final two minutes.

Healy scored 15 points in the first half, responding well from his dismal performance against Charleston two nights earlier. Healy was quiet in the second half, scoring only one field goal in the first eighteen minutes of the second half. Healy scored on a three, a dunk and two free throws in the closing minutes, and it was perfect example of his all around game. Healy added eight rebounds, seven steals and two timely blocks to his line for the game. Appalachian has now split the season series with its first conference opponent and it has put them at 5-5 in conference play, just a half game behind Samford for second place in the SoCon North. Elon has a commanding three game lead over Appalachian with only eight conference games remaining.

Appalachian tipped off as a 1.5 point favorite and broke the losing streak against the spread, to go 11-5 on the season. Our picks are one game behind at 10-6 for the season. Appalachian’s next opponent, Georgia Southern will most likely be favored against the Mountaineers. For whatever reason, Georgia Southern has always been a tough road game for the men. Factor in how Appalachian blew a huge lead at home just a few games ago and could not cover against the Eagles.

Men’s Basketball 59 Charleston 72

One can look at Charleston’s overall record and conference record and imagine that they are a decent team. We are not buying it though. The Cougars are very similar to Georgia Southern. Big wins over Baylor, Boston College, Old Dominion and Vermont have been offset by losses to Anderson College, The Citadel and equally terribly Georgia Southern. They are the ultimate matchup team. Last year, Appalachian had just enough big men to turn back the Cougars in the conference tournament as Andre Williamson and Isaac Butts played lights out. This time around, Appalachian will have to do without the services of those players, and face Adjehi Baru and Trent Wiedeman without any experience to speak of in the front court.

Charleston has excelled this season when shooting the ball well, just like most teams, but really thrive on the three pointer. We talk about the three point shot a lot here, across both genders of basketball, because it is a very significant statistic. The Cougars have hit a ton of threes this season, 6.3 per game, and attempt close to seventeen treys a game. That is good enough for 37% on the season, which is second in the conference only to Davidson. Appalachian is third in the conference by percentage. But, the Cougars lose ground at the free throw line, making only 65.8% of their attempts from the charity stripe, which is 11th out of twelve conference teams. The Cougars have the best statistics as far as shooting from the field, and field goal defense. All these stats can swing one way or another significantly in any game, which leads to Charleston playing up and down to their competition. We know the Cougars have talent, it is just a matter of them playing to the best of their ability.

On the other hand, Appalachian has slightly less talent than Charleston. The Mountaineers cannot counter having a national player, like Andrew Lawrence on their roster. Even though Appalachian has a couple players that are talented Nigerians, it does not add up in Division I college basketball. Both Michael Obacha and Brian Okam are still learning the game, and neither have can match up in the post. The Mountaineers biggest concerns are on the injury front, as Mike Neal and Jay Canty try to recover. I feel Neal and his ankle will get better with time, but slowly, and I question whether Jay Canty will ever be the player he was early this season, for the remainder of this campaign. In the meantime, Appalachian must be led by the heart and soul of Nathan Healy and the driving ability of Tevin Baskin. Hopefully Tab Hamilton can become a scorer, but his off the ball skills are so limited, that one has to question if he ever will. With the ball in his hands, and space to dribble to a spot on the floor or set up on a jumper, he is as deadly as they are in the conference, but he cannot create his own shot. That will not get you very far in the SoCon.

Appalachian has lost four games in a row against the spread, after taking their first ten in a row. Charleston has not been as good against the line this season or historically. Their somewhat elevated status as a mid-major always keeps their lines quite honest. The Cougars open as 12 point favorites, which we feel is a very big number. Odds say that Appalachian should get off the bad end of things soon. Charleston is 9-8 this season against the spread, but are in the midst of a 3-5 streak. The Cougars are 5-6 at home against the line. Picking the Apps in almost every game has gotten old, but twelve points just seems like too many. We will wait and see what the line does tomorrow. Any movement should give bettors the idea who is truly favored in this game.

12:36 UPDATE: Line has see sawed back and forth. We have seen it as low as 10.5, but it has now bumped back up to 11.5. This one will probably settle down around 5pm. We will check back then.

Postgame:

Appalachian fought hard on Wednesday evening in Charleston, but another long scoring drought in the second half put to rest their hopes for an upset. Appalachian led by two points at halftime, and kept up with Charleston in the second half, until Appalachian went scoreless for six minutes of game time, while Charleston turned a small lead into double digits.

Former Mountaineer Anthony Thomas lit up it up for the Cougars with 14 points, 7 rebounds and three blocks. Thomas played his true freshman season with Appalachian during the second Buzz era, or shall we say his final season. Thomas never played and transferred once Buzz made a run for the money – again. Andrew Lawrence scored 16 points and dished out four assists. Appalachian did a goof job on Adjehi Baru, who only took one shot, making it, but was 7/10 on the foul line, finishing with nine points and nine boards.

The problem with this team, or shall we say, one of our concerns, is when this team was playing well, they were getting contributions from everyone. Problem is, you cannot guarantee good games from every player on every night. Teams have learned to neutralize one of App’s players, whoever gives the opposing team the better matchup, and shut them down. Tonight, it was Nathan Healy’s turn to get picked on. Healy was 2/13 from the field, 1/8 from three, and finished with 5 points and nine rebounds in 38 minutes. When one player has a bad game, it hurts this team tremendously. Jason Capel has decided, for whatever reason, that he is not going to play the freshman, and is just going to take their lumps with the eight man rotation and see where it takes them. Right now, it is looking like that is going to take them to a Friday game in the conference tournament and a first round exit.

We do not know where the spread ended up, but we do know it did not go up to 13. Either way, Appalachian did not cover, for the fifth straight game and they fall to 10-5 on the season, while we have slipped to 9-6. Seems like days ago, we were 9-1. Right now, the Mountaineers have Western, Georgia Southern and Davidson in front of them. That is looking like three losses right there. There are maybe 3 or 4 more wins left on the regular season schedule. I just dont see this team getting hot right now, and they seem to be exhausted. When does basbeball start?

SoCon Men’s Basketball SoCon Overall
Team Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak
North
Elon 6-2 .750 3-1 3-1 0-0 W5 13-7 .650 8-2 5-5 0-0 W5
Samford 5-2 .714 3-1 2-1 0-0 L1 7-13 .350 4-4 3-7 0-2 L1
Western Carolina 5-4 .556 2-3 3-1 0-0 L2 8-13 .382 4-4 3-8 1-1 L2
UNCG 4-4 .500 4-1 0-3 0-0 W2 6-13 .316 6-5 0-8 0-0 W2
Appalachian State 4-5 .444 3-1 1-4 0-0 L2 8-12 .400 6-3 2-9 0-0 L2
Chattanooga 3-5 .375 1-2 2-3 0-0 L3 8-13 .382 5-7 3-6 0-0 L3
South
Davidson 8-1 .889 4-0 4-1 0-0 W4 13-7 .650 6-2 5-4 2-1 W4
College of Charleston 7-3 .700 4-1 3-2 0-0 W3 15-7 .682 8-5 7-2 0-0 W3
Georgia Southern 3-5 .375 2-2 1-3 0-0 W1 9-12 .429 5-3 3-8 1-1 W1
Furman 2-5 .286 1-2 1-3 0-0 L1 5-13 .278 4-4 1-9 0-0 L1
Wofford 2-6 .250 2-2 0-4 0-0 L1 8-13 .382 5-2 2-11 1-0 L1
Citadel 1-8 .111 0-5 1-3 0-0 L2 4-15 .211 3-7 1-8 0-0 L2

Men’s Basketball 56 Davidson 79

After a whiteout Friday in Boone filled with sleet, freezing rain and occasional snow, Appalachian basketball will do their best to whiteout Davidson on Saturday afternoon. In an interesting twist, Appalachian marketing thought it was wise to distract Davidson with a whiteout, encouraging fans to wear white. Unfortunately, Davidson just played Western Carolina on the road, who also hosted their own whiteout, which went unsuccessful as the Wildcats won by five points. Not to mention, one of Davidson’s primary colors is white, so this has backfire written all over it.

Davidson is easily the class of the Southern Conference, and has played a tough schedule outside of league play. The Wildcats lead the South division with a 7-1 record , and are a whole two games in front of second place Charleston. In the North, Appalachian is sitting in fourth place, but the race is much tighter. Two games separate first and last in the North. Each game a team in the North plays against the South is very important to get a win. Otherwise, teams in the North have done a good job protecting their home court against each other. The Mountaineers are only a half game out of a top four seed in the SoCon Tourney.

Davidson and Appalachian sometimes bring out the best in one another. These games are always tightly officiated, and the intensity level is always high. Davidson may say that they get everyone’s best shot, but outside of Western Carolina, Davidson is the one team that Mountaineer fans want to be beat more than any other in the league. The series between the two teams has been close through the years, but Davidson has been successful in the Holmes Center, posting a 7-2 record. Appalachian has won three of the last four in the series, which included a sweep three seasons ago. The Wildcats have won three games in a row coming into Saturday, which is their longest winning streak of the season. The usual suspects who never seem to graduate lead the Wildcats in scoring. De’Mon Brooks leads the team with 13.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Jake Cohen chips in 13.2 points and 5.4 rebounds a game while Nic Cohran scores 10.3 per game. The Wildcats have hit 150 three pointers this season, with four players having hit 21 or more threes on the season. Davidson is also proficient on the free throw line, leading the country in that category, shooting 79.8% on the season.

Appalachian has found itself in a rather precarious situation. Maybe the Mountaineers were looking ahead to playing Davidson. Against Georgia Southern on Thursday night, Appalachian looked the team from November and December rather than the team of the first three weeks of January. Appalachian might be without Jay Canty and Mike Neal, two very important pieces of their offense, who suffered injuries against Southern. If neither can play, it is going to take a monumental effort from the Mountaineers to pull off the upset. The team that finished the game against Georgia Southern was a skeleton crew, but somehow they pulled out a win in overtime after giving up a seventeen point lead. How this game is played hinges completely on the availability of Canty and Neal. A win was already going to be a tall task, and with only one day of practice and rest before Davidson comes to town, and beat up lineup, Appalachian is going to need close to a miracle.

We are guessing the line is going to be around eleven or twelve points. We will update in the morning with the line and our guess. Appalachian is 10-3 against the spread this season while Davidson is 6-10 against the spread.

10:46 AM UPDATE: The line opened up at 8 points, in favor of Davidson and has slowly inched up to ten points as of Saturday morning. The big question mark is whether or not Appalachian will have Mike Neal or Jay Canty. Without them, you have to think Davidson is a good call here, as Appalachian looked awful against Georgia Southern without either player on Thursday. With both players, Appalachian is an easy call getting ten points at home. We will make our pick as soon as we can get more information as to their status.

12:34 UPDATE: Jay Canty is playing today. No confirmation Neal, but we think he participated in shoot around this morning.

Postgame:

There is not much to say about this one. Appalachian was outmatched from the beginning of the game and was never in it. Davidson played brilliantly by shooting 52% for the game and four players reached double figure scoring. Davidson showed how they are better at every position on the court. Appalachian shot themselves in the foot by only making six baskets in the first half and trailing by 22 points at halftime. Jay Canty played but was ineffective, shooting 2/12 for the game. Tevin Baskin was a bright spot, only because he was 12/15 from the free throw line for 18 points. Nate Healy scored thirteen for Appalachian. Mike Neal started the game, but was limited and only played seventeen minutes.

There was an interesting moment in the game. In the second half, with Davidson in control by over twenty points, Davidson found a wide open De’Mon Brooks in the post, who threw a brutal head fake to Nate Healy who went airborne. Healy landed sqaurely on top of Brooks and brought him to the ground, consituting a flargrant one foul. (There are two levels of flagrant fouls, this one being the lesser of the two). Healy had been riding the refs all afternoon. You could tell he was frusturated and was tired of not getting his way. The foul showed it. It also showed some heart from Healy, which we all knew he had. He just was not going to let a team waltz into his gym and blow them out. This brought back memories when Healy was the recipient of an intentional foul last year at home against Elon. Hopefully we will see a different Appalachian team in two weeks when they travel to Belk Arena in two weeks.

Our pick of Appalachian covering ten points was purely based on the fact that Neal and Canty were going to play. We had a false hope, and the Mountaineers shooting 30% for the game did not help things. So, after covering their first ten games, the Mountaineers have dropped four in a row against the spread. They stand at 10-4 while we are 9-5. The season is finally evening out as we expected.