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App State Football vs Southern Miss

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Appalachian State (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-6, 0-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 28th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.29

Southern Miss: 51.48

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.81 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -17

Series: Southern Miss leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 20, Southern Miss 21, November 20, 2014, Hattiesburg, MS

This sport can be harsh sometimes. The line between winning and losing is thin. Whether it’s one play, one call by the officials, or a collection of a couple plays and couple bad bounces. More often than not, these things even themselves out over time, it just seems most turns of events are bouncing away from the Mountaineers. It’s been a hard pill to swallow for several weeks. Being so close, yet so far. But the only way to change your fortunes is to keep working. And when the bounces start coming back, the wins will become sweeter because you earned it. Nobody wants it more than the players and if anyone does want it more, it’s the coaches, because they want to see it for their players. And most importantly, we all want to see them succeed. So as you normally would, pack your vehicles, head for the mountains, catch up with former classmates and enjoy what is left of the fall foliage. And when you head into Kidd Brewer, give your all, because those players are giving theirs for you.  

Last season, in its first year in Sun Belt play, Southern Miss managed a 4-4 conference record with wins over Arkansas State, Texas State, Louisiana and UL-Monroe. All four of those wins were within the division. They lost both East division games, to Georgia State and Coastal. This season, Arkansas State and Texas State avenged their losses. Most recently, Southern Miss was manhandled by South Alabama last Tuesday evening. The score was 55-3, and it looked worse than that. That game marked the fourth time this season that Southern Miss scored 13 points or fewer in a game. Outside of an opening week win over Alcorn State, and playing high scoring games against defensively bad Arkansas State and shootout prone Texas State, the Southern Miss offense has struggled. Backup quarterback Holman Edwards, previously of Houston, relieved regular starter Billy Wiles, previously of Clemson, in the loss to South Alabama. Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall was noncommittal of who might start this weekend.

The Eagle offense managed 149 yards against South Alabama. Sixty-five yards came on their final drive of the game, in which ended in a fumble. The previous week, Southern Miss lost to Old Dominion, and their lone touchdown was a punt return. Southern Miss has not scored an offensive touchdown since September 30th. They are not as bad as they have played in recent weeks, but their margin of error is quite small. Quarterback play has been a major issue. Wiles has played well against bad teams, and against good teams, he has struggled. All seven of his touchdown passes came against those subpar defenses in Alcorn, Ark. State and Texas State. Those three games were also the only ones in which he threw for 215 or more passing yards. In the other four games, his passing yards never surpassed 180 yards. Those numbers do not seem too far off, but the run game numbers likewise reflect poor output. The Golden Eagles averaged 204 yards rushing in the “poor defense’ games, compared to just 86 yards rushing against Florida State, Tulane, Old Dominion and South Alabama.  

Last Saturday night created a low point for the Mountaineers, who are now on the wrong side of the win-loss column. The Mountaineers scored three times, each time occurring on fourth down. It’s honestly a wonder that the result of this game was not worse. Failing to convert on any of those fourth downs could have the changed the final tally dramatically. Only the Wyoming game created a lower point total for the Mountaineers, with 22. App State scored five times in that game. Plenty of folks have been looking for consistency for the Mountaineers. One of the main gripes was starting games quicker. Turns out, App has played better from behind all season than they have while out front. The Mountaineers scored first against Old Dominion and Wyoming, and held leads in the third quarter, but ultimately lost. Truth is, in the last four games, a game defining odd play has taken place in each fourth quarter that dramatically shifted the result. The blocked field goal at Wyoming. The goal line stop in Monroe. The fumble against Coastal. The botched mesh play in Norfolk.

In his first career start, Kanye Roberts performed about as good anyone could have expected. Still just a redshirt freshman, who had logged only thirty carries this season, Roberts took on 26 carries against Old Dominion. Roberts touched the ball on eight of the Mountaineers ten drives. The majority of Roberts’ yards came in the first half, aided by a 24-yard and 12-yard carry on the second series for the Mountaineer offense. Although his paced slowed in the second half, it was Roberts who carried the ball eight times for twenty-eight yards on the drive that put the Mountaineers up 21-20 in the third quarter. Those carries were not scattered either. All eight carries were in a matter of ten plays, that moved the offense to the edge of the red zone. After twenty carries through the Mountaineers first six drives, Roberts carried the ball just six times on the last four drives.

It’s quite crazy to think we come this far and not mentioned any Southern Miss playmakers. Franke Gore Jr is easily the most recognizable player, being the son of longtime NFL running back Frank Gore. His season has resembled the Golden Eagles season almost to a tee. Gore carried the ball six times in the win over Alcorn State, figuring there was not much need for him to carry the load in an FCS game. Gore eclipsed 100 yards twice this season, in those Arkansas State and Texas State games. All four of his rushing touchdowns came in those games. Since those outings, Gore has been stuck. He carried the ball 29 times for 66 yards against Old Dominion and 12 times for 37 yards against South Alabama. With 434 yards on the season, Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards a carry. Gore is really close to his pace of having a third straight 800-yard season, which is still very consistent, but behind some expectations considering he was a Sun Belt first team pick in the preseason. Backup running back Rodrigues Clark was spotted with a cast on his hand on Tuesday at practice. Assuming Clark does not play Saturday, that leaves the Golden Eagles thin at the position. Next in line for carries would be Kenyon Clark, who has only thirteen rushes on the year, but ten came in their last game. Tiaquelin Mims has a punt return touchdown to his credit and is also Southern Miss’ third leading receiver. Overall, the Mountaineers will be facing another team facing quarterback uncertainties. That makes the fifth game this season they have had to think about more than one quarterback on the opposing team. As a result, the Mountaineers will be preparing for another bottom-quartile team in terms of offensive yards, first downs generated and third down conversions. Oddly enough, Southern Miss is one of better red zone teams in the country, but that is mainly due to being 2nd in the country in red zone field goals. Of their red zone scores, over half of them are field goals. I’d love to sit back here and say something simple, like field goals won’t be enough to beat the Mountaineers at home. Then again, the last four games have been nothing like a Saturday afternoon home game in Boone. It will have been six weeks between Saturday home games for the Mountaineers this week. That’s not an easy schedule to deal with for anyone. App State needs a rebound game in the worst way, and hopefully they can break the trend of one score games.  

The First Pick

Royals: 19

Mountaineers 42

Appalachian State @ Southern Miss

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Here we go with Week 3

Appalachian State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-2, 0-0 CUSA)

Saturday, September 20th, 7pm EST

TV: American Sports Network, full list of affiliates here

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Carlisle-Faulkner Field at Roberts Stadium

Surface: Matrix Turf

Capacity: 36,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 56.73

Sou Miss: 54.49

Home: 3.97

Sou Miss is favored by the Sagrain Rating by 2 points

Sportsbook: Sou Miss -3, O/U 60.5

Series: Sou Miss leads the all time series 1-0

Last Meeting: Sou Miss 7, App State 0, 12/4/1937, Gulfport, MS

The bye week could not have come at a better time last week for Appalachian State. After dodging rain drops and McNeese State almost two weeks ago, the rest of the Sun Belt laid a big fat egg while the Mountaineers prepared for Southern Miss. You’ll remember the rain delay that sent the crowd home prematurely, while the opponent that Appalachian had scheduled years ago for the same weekend they eventually played Campbell, McNeese State, was giving Nebraska fits. Not only did the Sun Belt lose every game last weekend, they lost some ugly ones. Troy fell to Abilene Christian, who nearly beat Georgia State on the opening Thursday night of the season. Meanwhile, those same Ga. State Panthers and Idaho lost in offensive shootouts. Georgia Southern lost a heartbreaker at Georgia Tech in another one of their patented goof ups. Pitching the ball late in the fourth quarter is never a good idea. The rest of the bunch had games that had more predictable results. So what does all that mean for Appalachian? It represents a chance to garner some early respect from their conference peers. Out of conference games are where the Sun Belt and their peer conferences can gain a little attention and can increase their profile. Whoever is raking in wins over Conference USA teams will get some major love from the Sun Belt teams who have been around for a while. Southern Miss isn’t the cream of the crop in C-USA, but a win on Saturday will give the Mountaineers some Sun Belt credibility it cannot get from beating the Campbell’s of the world.

Southern Miss has had a similar set of opponents as Appalachian has to start the season. They sandwiched a win over FCS Alcorn State in between blowout losses to Mississippi State and Alabama. In those SEC games, the Golden Eagles managed four field goals on offense and allowed 101 points. Southern Miss was also outscored 13-6 in the second half to Alcorn State. The past twenty-seven games for Southern Miss are well documented. They have won two games while dropping twenty-five. When a team is this bad for this long, the weaknesses are usually pretty easy to find. In three games this season, the Eagles have surrendered 829 rushing yards to the tune of 6.6 yards per carry. On top of that, the Golden Eagles have scored all of two touchdowns in three games, both coming against an FCS opponent.

The Golden Eagles start a sophomore at quarterback in Nick Mullens, who is steady behind center, but not exactly flashy. Mullens started the last six games in 2013. He threw eleven touchdown passes as a starter last year and has added two touchdowns passes this season. So, in nine games as a starter, Mullens has thirteen touchdown passes. Mullens had a couple big games last year, which helped his average of 276 yards per game passing as a freshman, but has fallen off to an average of only 209 yards per game this season. Mullens will gamble sometimes, as he hit two receivers last week against Alabama in one on one situations. He wont be afraid to throw it up and give his receivers a chance to make something happen, so the Appalachian secondary must be ready to turn their heads and make a play.

We have already gone over how the Southern Miss defense cant stop the the run. Now we get to the part where the Golden Eagles cannot run the ball themselves. The have run 93 running plays this season, and are plowing the ball at 3.6 yards per carry. The epidemic affects the whole team. If it was not for Tez Parks, who has had a couple big plays to give him a 8.6 yards per carry average, the rest of the Golden Eagles average almost exactly three yards per carry. Running the ball thirty times a game with that little success cannot be fun for the running backs. Knowing a hole wont be there keeps them from running hard and leads to more dismal statistics.

The game plan seems simple for Appalachian, correct? The Mountaineers have two almost studly running backs, so the Mountaineers pound the ball all day. Wrong. This team is too early in its overall development to run the ball fifty times and ignore the passing game. Expect Appalachian to spread the ball around as usual. Whether the key back will be Marcus Cox or Terrence Upshaw remains the be seen. It was odd to see Cox carry the load as much as he did two weeks ago with his knee supposedly still recovering. Cox appears to be a fast healer which is good for the Mountaineers. Upshaw had an impressive debut against Michigan and should be fresh after all only rushing four times for 41 yards against Campbell. Cox and Upshaw have combined for 311 total rushing yards in two games.

At quarterback, Appalachian has used both Kam Bryant and Taylor Lamb in the first two games. Lamb relieved Bryant earlier in the Michigan game than most expected, and came in even earlier against Campbell. Lamb has been a little bit more efficient, but also did not play against Michigan as much as Bryant did. The feeling was that eventually, Lamb was going to supplant Bryant at some point this season. The skill level between the two seems fairly even. The main edge Bryant had was his game experience and his knowledge of the offense. Being a quarterback himself, Scott Satterfield might want to insert the guy he recruited as an FBS recruit over the FCS talent that Bryant has often been labeled.

Defensively, the Mountaineers will have a matchup that is similar to what they see in practice. Repeatedly, Southern Miss lined up against Alabama last week with five wide receivers. Occasionally the sets included some running backs mixed in with your typical wide receivers. Alabama defended Southern Miss with zone coverages on the trips (three receiver) side of the formation. Alabama rarely blitzed but still managed to force some throws from Mullens off of his back foot. The Mountaineers may choose to sit back in coverage and the onus will be on the defensive line to force Mullens into getting rid of the ball before he wants to.

This a rare matchup where both teams feel like they can get a win to hopefully provide some clarity for their fans. Southern Miss has been bad for some time now and Appalachian also has their concerns. Both teams have been beaten easily by Power Five schools and have taken care of business where they should have. This is one of the few chances Southern Miss has for a win this season and they want it bad. So badly, they started an hour long twitter smackfest on Tuesday morning with other Appalachian fans. Equally, Appalachian fans want to know where their team stands. There is a massive gap between Michigan and Campbell. Appalachian fans are looking for anywhere between four and six wins in their inaugural Sun Belt season. It does not matter if you are a four win guy or a six win guy, a part of that sum most likely includes a win this weekend in steamy Hattiesburg. Sagarin favors the Golden Eagles based purely on home field advantage. Vegas is also siding with Southern Miss by a field goal. If the home team has one advantage, it is their field goal kicker. He has already booted eight field goals through the uprights from all distances, including a long of 50 yards. For whatever reason, you have to circle the wagons and go back to the Golden Eagles inability to stop the run, or run the ball themselves. It may not be the entire Appalachian gameplan to run, but when the time is right in the fourth quarter, I feel more confident in Appalachian finishing a game by running the ball than I do Southern Miss. This game is a virtual dead heat and I could really see either team winning, but I see Appalachian pulling it out with a new starting quarterback.

The First Pick

Dixie Darlings 27

Mountaineers 31