Appalachian State (2-2, 0-1 Sun Belt) vs Oregon State (0-5, 0-0 PAC12)
Saturday, October 4th, 2025 3:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 730 AM & 97.5 FM (Charlotte), 950 AM & 92.7 FM (Greensboro), 980 AM & 96.7 FM (Winston-Salem), 107.7 FM & 1450 AM (Hendersonville), 97.3 FM & 790 AM (Johnson City, TN) 87.7 FM (In-Stadium)
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: AstroTurf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 56.85
Boise State: 62.06
Home: 5.14
Oregon State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .07 points
VegasInsider Consensus: Oregon State -1.5
Series: First Meeting
Last Meeting: n/a
When seasons start like this one has, with some incredible hope, and then a couple of recent hiccups, it feels like the sky is falling. When the team plays somewhat of the same game, and the results have you sitting even, it comes down to a couple plays here and there. The timing is crucial. This has been another September to forget in the High Country. The more you play, the more you figure out what you are, an sometimes, you don’t want those answers. With the memories of the wrath that Helene brought to our mountains a year ago fresh on our minds, and the grief of losing your last head coach weighing heavily, its easy to yearn for something to make you feel better. The sad part is, its just not that easy. You might be able to make some mistakes against bad teams and prevail. But, you cannot make those same mistakes against teams that are head and shoulders above you. There was a time, when App State never had teams on their schedule who were that much better. That time is gone. Every game is a new one, and every opponent should be treated as such.
Oregon State and App State have never played each other, so this scheduling quirk was made possible by multiple teams rearranging their games with App State and the ultimate demise of the PAC 12, which for this school year is just the PAC 2. Washington State and Oregon State are the only schools in the conference, although next season, they will be joined by a host of schools that include Boise State, and current Sun Belt member Texas State. The Beavers are tentatively scheduled to host the Mountaineers in 2032, but I wouldn’t make any plans for that happening just yet. We all know how much scheduling is done ahead of time and are reworked due to the ever changing college football landscape. I doubt anyone could guarantee that these schools will even be in the same conference by 2032, and who knows what conference scheduling will like in that time. What we do know for the time being, is that conference realignment made this game in 2025 happen, and it could be the undoing of the return trip in a few years.
No matter how you look at it, Oregon State has lost their first five games. Their schedule is as unbalanced as anyone could expect given their circumstances. They will play Washington State twice in November. Between those two games, they’ll play FCS Lafayette and FBS youngster Sam Houston State along with Tulsa. Their first five games consisted of Cal, Fresno State, Texas Tech, Oregon and Houston. Oregon and Texas Tech are both undefeated and ranked. Cal and Fresno State are 4-1 and Houston is 4-0. The Beavers have gnawed on a tough schedule so far, but this will be their furthest road trip of the season, and they are heading to North Carolina on Thursday. With them, they’ll bring an offense that has not scored a lot of points and a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone either. Last week the Beavers had their best chance to get their first win, but they allowed Houston to overcome a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to tie the game. Oregon State then missed the go ahead field goal with just seconds left. Then they laid an egg in overtime and gave Houston the three point win.
Now that we are four games through the season, the issues that have plagued the Mountaineers all season are officially a problem. It’s more than a trend, it’s who they are, and it will take several games to undo what has been done. The Mountaineers have been flagged 36 times for 337 yards this season, which ranks 113th the nation. App State is also -7 on the season in turnover ratio, which is the third worst rate in the country. The 12 turnovers lost on the season is last among all teams. App State’s red zone offense has converted just eight of sixteen trips into touchdowns, and just 13/16 overall attempts which is 89th nationwide. All those negative numbers may not have changed the result last weekend, which included one of the ugliest offensive games I can remember, but it would have given themselves a chance against Southern Miss. Oregon State scores better than App State at two of three metrics previously mentioned. They are much more disciplined in terms of penalties, still have a negative turnover ratio, but are one possession less successful in the red zone.
So what happens when you mix a team like Oregon State and a team like this App State team is playing? You are probably looking at game with a lot of momentum swings that includes a lot of sloppy play, and eventually, one team settles down and finally gets it right for a couple series and seals the game. Or, it could be the exact opposite. What if both teams somehow get it together and play to their full potential. What if the game is played super clean, and nobody turns the ball over, both teams drive the field regularly and it comes down to red zone chances. I mean we can dream right. The long of it, is I think this game could be played in a quick three hours, or drag on forever and take four hours to complete. I’m not predicting overtime, but a higher scoring, tight game would not surprise me. For App State, it seems like a quarterback conversation or controversy is possibly in the works. AJ Swann left the Southern Miss game due to an injury, but it easily could have been due to poor play as well. The stare-down pick six last week put the Mountaineers in a hole they had no chance of recovering from. It only made the score 14-0, but it felt like that was exactly what Boise needed. So that leaves Swann with 6 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the season, but all six of those interceptions have come in the last three games. Couple that with a wretched 64-yard performance last week, and it makes sense why that conversation needs to be had. The Beavers have been torched in a couple games this season, and it appears their defense could be vulnerable. Texas Tech and Oregon both came close to 600 yards of total offense. However, Fresno, Cal and Houston were held to under 400 yards. Texas Tech and Oregon are top-ten offenses. The other three range from 76th to 86th respectively. App State is currently a top 50 offense. But does any of this matter if you cannot take care of the most important part of the game. Hold onto the ball, secure your possessions, and end every drive with a kick. Punts are good. It gives your defense a chance. We all want to see what the ceiling of this Mountaineer team looks like, not just for this year, but also for years to come. So far we have only seen, what we hope, is the floor.
The First Pick
Dams 31
Mountaineers 35