Appalachian State (5-6, 2-5 Sun Belt) vs Arkansas State (5-6, 4-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 29th, 2025 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 730 AM & 97.5 FM (Charlotte), 950 AM & 92.7 FM (Greensboro), 980 AM & 96.7 FM (Winston-Salem), 107.7 FM & 1450 AM (Hendersonville), 97.3 FM & 790 AM (Johnson City, TN) 87.7 FM (In-Stadium)

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 56.37

Arkansas State: 60.11

Home: 3.43

Arkansas State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .3 points

VegasInsider Consensus: App State -2.5

Series: App State leads 4-1

Last Meeting: App State 48 Arkansas State 14, November 6, 2021, Jonesboro, AR

Moments like these are why we watch the games, and why the players and coaches work as hard as they do. They all aspire to participate in a game that might give them another week to play. That is exactly what is in front of Arkansas State and Appalachian State this weekend. One teams wins and likely is selected to play a in bowl game, that will deem their efforts leading up and through this season as a success. That is especially true for the Mountaineers, who are looking to return to the bowl season after missing out last season. A seven in the loss column makes the offseason much more difficult, longer and only intensifies the pressure on that coaching staff to get better the following season. The road to six wins is never an easy one. I doubt we expected that App State would need the last game of the season to get there. Especially not after a four game losing streak. Saturday sets the table for next year, whether there is a 13th game or not.

This group of Red Wolves may be the toughest team all season to research and figure out what they are. They have had mixed results all year long, and that is what puts them in a win or stay home situation. Some Arkansas State fans were looking for more than just bowl eligibility in year five of Butch Jones. They were hoping to potentially contend for the west division. Those hopes were officially dashed in the last month with back-to-back losses to Southern Miss and Louisiana. The Red Wolves were 4-1 in conference play after winning four games in row, and had a real chance to contend with two games in Jonesboro next on the schedule. The Red Wolves ran 95 offensive plays against Southern Miss, but were doomed by five interceptions and a lost fumble that resulted in just 21 total points. Arkansas State had nine possessions in a row in the middle of the game that resulted in either an interception or a punt. They were still in the game until their last possession, that predictably ended in an interception. Twelve days later on a Thursday night, the Red Wolves could not hold onto a halftime lead and managed just a second half field goal to fall to a battered Louisiana team that controlled the clock and played keep away.

Part of the reasons for the Red Wolves struggles the last two weeks have really been issues they have dealt with all season. They will play in tight football games. Six of their games have been decided by one possession or less with a 2-4 record in such games. Among the wins outside of the one possession threshold: Southeast Missouri State, Georgia Southern, and Troy. Part of the blame to playing in tight football games is the Red Wolves inconsistency in the red zone. They lead the conference in red zone field goals with 14 and are last in the conference in red zone touchdown rate, converting just half of their red zone drives into touchdowns. Placekicker Clune Van Andel has a big leg, and was the Sun Belt preseason special teams player of the year, but his success comes at the detriment to Arkansas State as a whole. The Red Wolves are averaging just under 24 points a game on offense, which is 12th in the league in front of UL-Monroe and Georgia State, who have combined for four overall wins and one conference victory. That one conference win? Monroe beating this Arkansas State team by twelve points back in late September.

Whereas Arkansas State has not made the plays at crucial points of games this season, the Mountaineers were able to do just that last week. Two fourth quarter fumbles and a blocked field goal kept Marshall out of the end zone in the second half. Jaquari Lewis led a productive ground game with 33 carries for 175 yards. Yes, you read that right, thirty-three rushing attempts for one player after giving him just two week before. It was a massive change in philosophy that probably caught Marshall off guard. Lewis added five catches for 39 yards which equates to a breakout performance for the freshman. The passing game existed solely to keep Marshall defenders out of the box, as JJ Kohl did not test the Marshall secondary often. Keep in mind the Herd had collected plenty of interceptions over the course of the year and App State probably wanted to avoid downfield turnovers. Sam Mbake had his best game as a Mountaineer with seven grabs for 39 yards. Mbake had seven catches coming into the game and doubled that total last week. Overall, the offense took care of the ball and kept it out of Marshall’s hands. The Herd dominated the game from a yardage perspective, but could not score enough when it counted.

There is not a lot that really pops off the page when you think about this Arkansas State team. We have alluded to that an extent. If anything, their offense is probably not as good as Marshall’s but their defense is a little bit better than the Herd. It would be incredibly lazy to think that the formula for App State to win this week would be to replicate what they did last week. Jaquari Lewis is no longer an unknown. The tape is out there. As much as it appears that the best way to attack Marshall was to stay away from the secondary, a similar strength has emerged for Arkansas State over the last several weeks that might create a familiar game plan for the Mountaineers. Through the first seven games of the season, the Red Wolves defense accumulated nine sacks of opposing quarterbacks. They had come in bunches as they had three games of those seven where they did not record a sack. Over the last month, Arkansas State has accumulated 21 sacks, aided by a nine sack performance against Troy. So how does one avoid negative plays likes interceptions and sacks? It’s not as simple as just running the football, but if you are effective, it can mitigate some of those potential losses. If you want to slow down defensive lineman from getting upfield and getting after the quarterback, mixing in the screen game game is a strategy that is usually effective. App State has done that well this season and screens to Lewis were effective last weekend. I’d also expect Arkansas State to be effective moving the ball. They are a below average rushing offense and an above average passing offense comparatively to the rest of the conference. Of the higher volume passing offenses in the Sun Belt, Arkansas State throws fewer touchdown passes by quite a large margin. With only 14 touchdown passes on the season only four conference teams have fewer touchdown passes. This does have the feel of another game that probably ends up in the 20’s on both sides, and someone will make a play or two in the fourth quarter that will decide the outcome. The way App State has been able to play a bend but do not break style of defense has given them a chance, as long as the offense shows up for an entire 60 minutes. Arkansas State has another mobile quarterback in Jaylen Raynor who is a North Carolina native and will likely be playing in front of plenty of friends and family. Corey Rucker is a dynamic, first team all Sun Belt receiver who racks up a lot of yards despite only having one touchdown on the season. Saturday’s forecast could also have a huge impact on both team’s game plans. The warmest part of the day will be right around kickoff and falling to below freezing by the fourth quarter.

The First Pick

Lean Canids 24

Mountaineers 27