Category Archives: Basketball (M)

Men’s Basketball 74 Western Carolina 65

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For the first time this season, in its twenty-first game, Appalachian will finally play its first game this season against a conference opponent for the second time. Way back in December, Appalachian went to Cullowhee, holding a ten point lead at halftime, and an eight point lead with ten minutes to play, before finally falling to the Catamounts by six points. It was the scene of the crime of the infamous “Worst Free Throw Ever”, now with a lowly 18 million YouTube views. That game was actually a sign of things to come for Appalachian. The Mountaineers controlled most of the game, before losing late. Reminds us all so much of just about every game in the last three weeks, namely Chattanooga, Georgia Southern, most recently Charleston. The difference between that game, and those most recent games are that the expectation level was different. In December, when the Apps played Western, they were still without Mike Neal, and nobody expected the Mountaineers to win that game. When Neal returned, the Mountaineers started playing better, and the expectations grew with a miniature winning streak in early January.

It is almost like the season has come full circle to an extent. The Mountaineers are back to their ways of losing games where they held leads, or went scoreless for long periods of time. Another difference is that Western has lost four of their last five games, mostly to teams that Appalachian has played very recently. Western has kept their games close, but have not been able to close them out, very similar to how Appalachian is playing. Western’s slump began on January 14th with a loss to Elon, which they followed up with a loss to Samford on the road. The Catamounts then outscored Chattanooga, before losing by single digits to both Georgia Southern and Davidson.

Western features four players averaging double digit points, led by Trey Sumler at 17.6 per game. Tawaski King is their main post player, socring 11.5 points a game while grabbing 5.8 rebounds. Three pointer shooter Tom Tankelwicz has hit 58 treys on the season while shooting at a 40% clip. Brandon Boggs chips in 10.4 points per game.

The question for Appalachian is whether or not Mike Neal will make a difference in this game. Appalachian took good care of the basketball with only nine turnovers in the first matchup, but could not hit a shot in the second half from anywhere. The real different is the play of Tevin Baskin, who only played two minuted in the first game. Baskin brings a lot of athleticism to the Mountaineer lineup, and really is the only fresh player on the team. Baskin has been scoring points and grabbing rebounds in bunches in the last few games, but the problem is, Appalachian has not been winning.

Western has lost the last four games against the spread where they were favored, and is 4-0-1 in its last five games where they are underdogs. Appalachian, as we have detailed on a weekly basis, has been the streakiest team in college basketball against the spread. The Mountaineers covered the first ten games, and have not covered their last five games. Something has to give soon, or does it? I think these two teams are very even, and the Mountaineers were undermanned back in December. My educated guess is that we could see a PK or Appalachian favored by two points.

8:51 AM UPDATE: When we checked the line late last night and this morning, the Mountaineers were considered 1.5 point favorites, and that seems just about right for me. Since I want the Apps to win, I will gladly take a small number.

Postgame:

Appalachian held off a late Western Carolina rally and held on for their fifth conference win of the season in a nine point win. Appalachian controlled most of the game, leading by as many as fourteen points in the first half. Western never led in the game, but cut Appalachian’s lead to one point with two minutes to play at 65-64. The Mountaineers finished the game on a 9-1 run, with Nathan Healy scoring seven of his 24 points in the final two minutes.

Healy scored 15 points in the first half, responding well from his dismal performance against Charleston two nights earlier. Healy was quiet in the second half, scoring only one field goal in the first eighteen minutes of the second half. Healy scored on a three, a dunk and two free throws in the closing minutes, and it was perfect example of his all around game. Healy added eight rebounds, seven steals and two timely blocks to his line for the game. Appalachian has now split the season series with its first conference opponent and it has put them at 5-5 in conference play, just a half game behind Samford for second place in the SoCon North. Elon has a commanding three game lead over Appalachian with only eight conference games remaining.

Appalachian tipped off as a 1.5 point favorite and broke the losing streak against the spread, to go 11-5 on the season. Our picks are one game behind at 10-6 for the season. Appalachian’s next opponent, Georgia Southern will most likely be favored against the Mountaineers. For whatever reason, Georgia Southern has always been a tough road game for the men. Factor in how Appalachian blew a huge lead at home just a few games ago and could not cover against the Eagles.

Men’s Basketball 59 Charleston 72

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One can look at Charleston’s overall record and conference record and imagine that they are a decent team. We are not buying it though. The Cougars are very similar to Georgia Southern. Big wins over Baylor, Boston College, Old Dominion and Vermont have been offset by losses to Anderson College, The Citadel and equally terribly Georgia Southern. They are the ultimate matchup team. Last year, Appalachian had just enough big men to turn back the Cougars in the conference tournament as Andre Williamson and Isaac Butts played lights out. This time around, Appalachian will have to do without the services of those players, and face Adjehi Baru and Trent Wiedeman without any experience to speak of in the front court.

Charleston has excelled this season when shooting the ball well, just like most teams, but really thrive on the three pointer. We talk about the three point shot a lot here, across both genders of basketball, because it is a very significant statistic. The Cougars have hit a ton of threes this season, 6.3 per game, and attempt close to seventeen treys a game. That is good enough for 37% on the season, which is second in the conference only to Davidson. Appalachian is third in the conference by percentage. But, the Cougars lose ground at the free throw line, making only 65.8% of their attempts from the charity stripe, which is 11th out of twelve conference teams. The Cougars have the best statistics as far as shooting from the field, and field goal defense. All these stats can swing one way or another significantly in any game, which leads to Charleston playing up and down to their competition. We know the Cougars have talent, it is just a matter of them playing to the best of their ability.

On the other hand, Appalachian has slightly less talent than Charleston. The Mountaineers cannot counter having a national player, like Andrew Lawrence on their roster. Even though Appalachian has a couple players that are talented Nigerians, it does not add up in Division I college basketball. Both Michael Obacha and Brian Okam are still learning the game, and neither have can match up in the post. The Mountaineers biggest concerns are on the injury front, as Mike Neal and Jay Canty try to recover. I feel Neal and his ankle will get better with time, but slowly, and I question whether Jay Canty will ever be the player he was early this season, for the remainder of this campaign. In the meantime, Appalachian must be led by the heart and soul of Nathan Healy and the driving ability of Tevin Baskin. Hopefully Tab Hamilton can become a scorer, but his off the ball skills are so limited, that one has to question if he ever will. With the ball in his hands, and space to dribble to a spot on the floor or set up on a jumper, he is as deadly as they are in the conference, but he cannot create his own shot. That will not get you very far in the SoCon.

Appalachian has lost four games in a row against the spread, after taking their first ten in a row. Charleston has not been as good against the line this season or historically. Their somewhat elevated status as a mid-major always keeps their lines quite honest. The Cougars open as 12 point favorites, which we feel is a very big number. Odds say that Appalachian should get off the bad end of things soon. Charleston is 9-8 this season against the spread, but are in the midst of a 3-5 streak. The Cougars are 5-6 at home against the line. Picking the Apps in almost every game has gotten old, but twelve points just seems like too many. We will wait and see what the line does tomorrow. Any movement should give bettors the idea who is truly favored in this game.

12:36 UPDATE: Line has see sawed back and forth. We have seen it as low as 10.5, but it has now bumped back up to 11.5. This one will probably settle down around 5pm. We will check back then.

Postgame:

Appalachian fought hard on Wednesday evening in Charleston, but another long scoring drought in the second half put to rest their hopes for an upset. Appalachian led by two points at halftime, and kept up with Charleston in the second half, until Appalachian went scoreless for six minutes of game time, while Charleston turned a small lead into double digits.

Former Mountaineer Anthony Thomas lit up it up for the Cougars with 14 points, 7 rebounds and three blocks. Thomas played his true freshman season with Appalachian during the second Buzz era, or shall we say his final season. Thomas never played and transferred once Buzz made a run for the money – again. Andrew Lawrence scored 16 points and dished out four assists. Appalachian did a goof job on Adjehi Baru, who only took one shot, making it, but was 7/10 on the foul line, finishing with nine points and nine boards.

The problem with this team, or shall we say, one of our concerns, is when this team was playing well, they were getting contributions from everyone. Problem is, you cannot guarantee good games from every player on every night. Teams have learned to neutralize one of App’s players, whoever gives the opposing team the better matchup, and shut them down. Tonight, it was Nathan Healy’s turn to get picked on. Healy was 2/13 from the field, 1/8 from three, and finished with 5 points and nine rebounds in 38 minutes. When one player has a bad game, it hurts this team tremendously. Jason Capel has decided, for whatever reason, that he is not going to play the freshman, and is just going to take their lumps with the eight man rotation and see where it takes them. Right now, it is looking like that is going to take them to a Friday game in the conference tournament and a first round exit.

We do not know where the spread ended up, but we do know it did not go up to 13. Either way, Appalachian did not cover, for the fifth straight game and they fall to 10-5 on the season, while we have slipped to 9-6. Seems like days ago, we were 9-1. Right now, the Mountaineers have Western, Georgia Southern and Davidson in front of them. That is looking like three losses right there. There are maybe 3 or 4 more wins left on the regular season schedule. I just dont see this team getting hot right now, and they seem to be exhausted. When does basbeball start?

SoCon Men’s Basketball SoCon Overall
Team Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak Record Pct Home Away Neutral Streak
North
Elon 6-2 .750 3-1 3-1 0-0 W5 13-7 .650 8-2 5-5 0-0 W5
Samford 5-2 .714 3-1 2-1 0-0 L1 7-13 .350 4-4 3-7 0-2 L1
Western Carolina 5-4 .556 2-3 3-1 0-0 L2 8-13 .382 4-4 3-8 1-1 L2
UNCG 4-4 .500 4-1 0-3 0-0 W2 6-13 .316 6-5 0-8 0-0 W2
Appalachian State 4-5 .444 3-1 1-4 0-0 L2 8-12 .400 6-3 2-9 0-0 L2
Chattanooga 3-5 .375 1-2 2-3 0-0 L3 8-13 .382 5-7 3-6 0-0 L3
South
Davidson 8-1 .889 4-0 4-1 0-0 W4 13-7 .650 6-2 5-4 2-1 W4
College of Charleston 7-3 .700 4-1 3-2 0-0 W3 15-7 .682 8-5 7-2 0-0 W3
Georgia Southern 3-5 .375 2-2 1-3 0-0 W1 9-12 .429 5-3 3-8 1-1 W1
Furman 2-5 .286 1-2 1-3 0-0 L1 5-13 .278 4-4 1-9 0-0 L1
Wofford 2-6 .250 2-2 0-4 0-0 L1 8-13 .382 5-2 2-11 1-0 L1
Citadel 1-8 .111 0-5 1-3 0-0 L2 4-15 .211 3-7 1-8 0-0 L2

Men’s Basketball 56 Davidson 79

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After a whiteout Friday in Boone filled with sleet, freezing rain and occasional snow, Appalachian basketball will do their best to whiteout Davidson on Saturday afternoon. In an interesting twist, Appalachian marketing thought it was wise to distract Davidson with a whiteout, encouraging fans to wear white. Unfortunately, Davidson just played Western Carolina on the road, who also hosted their own whiteout, which went unsuccessful as the Wildcats won by five points. Not to mention, one of Davidson’s primary colors is white, so this has backfire written all over it.

Davidson is easily the class of the Southern Conference, and has played a tough schedule outside of league play. The Wildcats lead the South division with a 7-1 record , and are a whole two games in front of second place Charleston. In the North, Appalachian is sitting in fourth place, but the race is much tighter. Two games separate first and last in the North. Each game a team in the North plays against the South is very important to get a win. Otherwise, teams in the North have done a good job protecting their home court against each other. The Mountaineers are only a half game out of a top four seed in the SoCon Tourney.

Davidson and Appalachian sometimes bring out the best in one another. These games are always tightly officiated, and the intensity level is always high. Davidson may say that they get everyone’s best shot, but outside of Western Carolina, Davidson is the one team that Mountaineer fans want to be beat more than any other in the league. The series between the two teams has been close through the years, but Davidson has been successful in the Holmes Center, posting a 7-2 record. Appalachian has won three of the last four in the series, which included a sweep three seasons ago. The Wildcats have won three games in a row coming into Saturday, which is their longest winning streak of the season. The usual suspects who never seem to graduate lead the Wildcats in scoring. De’Mon Brooks leads the team with 13.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Jake Cohen chips in 13.2 points and 5.4 rebounds a game while Nic Cohran scores 10.3 per game. The Wildcats have hit 150 three pointers this season, with four players having hit 21 or more threes on the season. Davidson is also proficient on the free throw line, leading the country in that category, shooting 79.8% on the season.

Appalachian has found itself in a rather precarious situation. Maybe the Mountaineers were looking ahead to playing Davidson. Against Georgia Southern on Thursday night, Appalachian looked the team from November and December rather than the team of the first three weeks of January. Appalachian might be without Jay Canty and Mike Neal, two very important pieces of their offense, who suffered injuries against Southern. If neither can play, it is going to take a monumental effort from the Mountaineers to pull off the upset. The team that finished the game against Georgia Southern was a skeleton crew, but somehow they pulled out a win in overtime after giving up a seventeen point lead. How this game is played hinges completely on the availability of Canty and Neal. A win was already going to be a tall task, and with only one day of practice and rest before Davidson comes to town, and beat up lineup, Appalachian is going to need close to a miracle.

We are guessing the line is going to be around eleven or twelve points. We will update in the morning with the line and our guess. Appalachian is 10-3 against the spread this season while Davidson is 6-10 against the spread.

10:46 AM UPDATE: The line opened up at 8 points, in favor of Davidson and has slowly inched up to ten points as of Saturday morning. The big question mark is whether or not Appalachian will have Mike Neal or Jay Canty. Without them, you have to think Davidson is a good call here, as Appalachian looked awful against Georgia Southern without either player on Thursday. With both players, Appalachian is an easy call getting ten points at home. We will make our pick as soon as we can get more information as to their status.

12:34 UPDATE: Jay Canty is playing today. No confirmation Neal, but we think he participated in shoot around this morning.

Postgame:

There is not much to say about this one. Appalachian was outmatched from the beginning of the game and was never in it. Davidson played brilliantly by shooting 52% for the game and four players reached double figure scoring. Davidson showed how they are better at every position on the court. Appalachian shot themselves in the foot by only making six baskets in the first half and trailing by 22 points at halftime. Jay Canty played but was ineffective, shooting 2/12 for the game. Tevin Baskin was a bright spot, only because he was 12/15 from the free throw line for 18 points. Nate Healy scored thirteen for Appalachian. Mike Neal started the game, but was limited and only played seventeen minutes.

There was an interesting moment in the game. In the second half, with Davidson in control by over twenty points, Davidson found a wide open De’Mon Brooks in the post, who threw a brutal head fake to Nate Healy who went airborne. Healy landed sqaurely on top of Brooks and brought him to the ground, consituting a flargrant one foul. (There are two levels of flagrant fouls, this one being the lesser of the two). Healy had been riding the refs all afternoon. You could tell he was frusturated and was tired of not getting his way. The foul showed it. It also showed some heart from Healy, which we all knew he had. He just was not going to let a team waltz into his gym and blow them out. This brought back memories when Healy was the recipient of an intentional foul last year at home against Elon. Hopefully we will see a different Appalachian team in two weeks when they travel to Belk Arena in two weeks.

Our pick of Appalachian covering ten points was purely based on the fact that Neal and Canty were going to play. We had a false hope, and the Mountaineers shooting 30% for the game did not help things. So, after covering their first ten games, the Mountaineers have dropped four in a row against the spread. They stand at 10-4 while we are 9-5. The season is finally evening out as we expected.

 

Men’s Basketball 64 Georgia Southern 62 (OT)

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The most confusing team in the SoCon will make one of its longest road trips in conference play when Georgia Southern faces Appalachian on Thursday evening in Boone. The Eagles have struggled on the road this season, only posting two wins against Kennesaw State and Virginia Tech. Since the win at Virginia Tech, a team who the Mountaineers lost to three weeks prior to Southern’s win, the Eagles have gone winless on the road and have posted some pretty ugly losses. Southern has lost every true road game since and have averaged losing by 14.7 points per game. Southern has struggled when they have had trouble scoring this season. The Eagles have won all but one game where they have scored 62 points or more this season, and have lost all but one when they have scored 62 or fewer. That is a rather low magic number, while Appalachian has lost every game where the opponent has scored 72 points.

The Eagles feature three double figure scorers in Eric Ferguson (14.2), CJ Reed (11.7) and Tre Bussey (10.7), but beyond that, the productions falls off considerably. Their next three highest scoring players combine for 16.3 points per game. The Eagles are also a team that fouls a lot compared to their opponents, fouling the opponent close to eighteen times per game. That is an average good enough for a single bonus in both halves of play. In turn, the Eagles do not draw fouls well enough, and it shows as they are out-shot on the free throw line by over three percent.

Appalachian is a team that draws exactly nineteen fouls a game and shoots well from the free throw line, but can be streaky when they do not frequent the line enough in a game. Evidence is provided in their last two games, losses at Samford (11/18) and Chattanooga (16/23). Both games were decided by four points or fewer and another free throw here and there could have been huge in the closing minutes. Appalachian needs to own the glass on Thursday, as the Eagles only average just over thirty rebounds a game, while the Mountaineers average nearly thirty-six rebounds a game. The Mountaineers have out-rebounded Georgia Southern on the season by 21, in one less game.

Our first line we saw gave the Mountaineers an eight point advantage. Our first feeling was that eight was somewhat of a high number, until we started researching Georgia Southern. The Eagles are bad on the road, winning only two of nine games, and are coming off a terrible performance to the worst team in the league in The Citadel. That was coming off of beating Charleston and Davidson in back to back games. However, all those games came at home, and the Eagles are back on the road, and have to deal with a very chilly Boone climate off the court. History has shown that Georgia Southern teams have not fared well coming to the mountains, across all sports, when the weather outside is below 40 degrees. Appalachian has won five in a row over Georgia Southern at home. We are not confident about the eight points, despite Appalachian playing well this past weekend outside of a six minute stretch in Chattanooga. We would like to see a spread of 6.5 to be comfortable, but we are not likely to see it. I have a feeling the line might take off toward 9 once the day wears on. We will update throughout the day as usual, if the line does change.

12:38 PM UPDATE: Line has edged downward to -7.5 for the Apps. Leaning toward an Eagle cover.

5:16 PM UPDATE: Earlier this afternoon, the line dropped another whole point, all the way to -6.5, and that was the number we were looking for. It’s been a bore this year picking games, but we will ride the Apps at home.

Postgame:

For the second time in a week, Appalachian was forced to overtime by an inferior opponent by losing a double digit lead in the second half. This time around, Appalachian lost a 17 point lead with 8:44 to play before holding off Georgia Southern in overtime. Last week, Appalachian lost in overtime after losing a nineteen point lead on the road in Chattanooga. This time the Mountaineers managed to win, against one of the least talented teams in the conference.

When Appalachian took a 52-35 lead with 8:44 to play, the lead was large, but never seemed safe the entire game. This game was one where Georgia Southern was a couple of made shots away from making a run, and turning the game around. Over the next six minutes of play, Appalachian could not score, much less get the ball across halfcourt without having to work out of a trap. The Eagles managed to trim the lead slowly, as Appalachian could only manage five points in the last eight plus minutes of the game. In overtime, Appalachian “outscored”  Southern 7-5, which was good enough on this night.

So you ask, how did this lead evaporate? This game may be better explained than “The Chatty Collapse.” Jay Canty re-injured the same thumb he has had trouble with all season, and only played two minutes. Midway through the second half, Mike Neal suffered a foot injury, that was awkward to say the least. Neal took a contested three pointer and he drew contact from an Eagle defender, but no foul was called. Neal landed off balance, and tried to walk the injury off before crumbling to the floor in agony. Neal would not return to the game, and Appalachian’s lead would begin shrinking. Head Coach Jason Capel was forced to run with a lineup that included Chris Burgess, Tab Hamilton, Jamaal Trice, Nathan Healy, Tevin Baskin and Michael Obacha. Six players split minutes for the remainder of the game and overtime. This, after a long road trip that included another overtime game. We wrote a few days ago how this team was an injury away being run ragged as far as minutes played per player. Neal is considered on the plus side of questionable for Saturday against Davidson, while Canty is considered closer to doubtful than questionable for Saturday.

The spread came down to 6.5 points in favor of Appalachian, which would have worked out just fine had the Mountaineers not lost both Neal and Canty. So, after covering their first ten games, Appalachian has been figured out by Vegas and has dropped three straight covers. Two of those covers leave a sour taste in your mouth, as the Mountaineers had both games covered in the second half with ease, before falling apart and going to overtime. Appalachian is now 10-3 against the spread and our picks are 9-4. Depending on the injuries for the Mountaineers, I expect Davidson to be favored big time on Saturday, perhaps as many as 11 or 12 points. Davidson has not been a team that has ever played well against the spread, so this line will be especially intriguing on Saturday morning.

Men’s Basketball 68 Samford 72

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Samford and Appalachian were projected to finish tied for fourth in the SoCon by the media prior to the season. On Saturday afternoon, they will be playing for a share of first place. Samford has been especially hot of late, winning three in a row. Samford took care of Western Carolina on Thursday, after sweeping the Low-Country portion of the schedule on the road with wins over The Citadel and Charleston. Samford seems to be a team that plays up and down to its competition. Their win over The Citadel was a four point win, over a team that has now lost twelve straight games. Their victory over Charleston was a major upset as far as Southern Conference basketball is concerned. Samford lost their only SoCon game at home to Chattanooga, a team Appalachian dominated, but could not finish off down the stretch.

For the season, Samford has been outscored, outshot, outrebounded and overall, just plain outhustled by their opponents all season long. Similar to Wofford, they are led by a duo of underclassmen who have provided the bulk of their scoring. Raijon Kelly has scored in double figures in every game this season. The sophomore was named to the 2012 SoCon all-freshman team last season. Kelly has played thirty minutes or more in every game this season, but has been in a shooting slump of late. Kelly is shooting 42.4% from the floor this season, but has only made 12/40 (30%) his last three games. Kelly has been off after exploding for 27 points and six made three pointers, both season highs, against Chattanooga. Tim Williams is a freshman forward who comes in a 6’8″ and 210 pounds. Williams averages 14.4 points per game and 7.3 rebounds. Williams averages 5.5 field goals made per game. Samford features a rather short bench, as only six players have played in every game this season.

This a big game for Appalachian from a mental standpoint. Can the Mountaineers erase the nightmare that was the Chattanooga game? Even though Appalachian thoroughly dominated the Mocs for most of the game, those memories are all but forgotten. Appalachian has fared well in Alabama since Samford has joined the conference. In four games on the road, Appalachian is 3-1 at Samford, with three straight wins. Jason Capel is 3-1 all time against Samford, with the only loss coming last year in Boone in a one point game.

Five Mountaineers continue to average in double figures. The play of Tevin Baskin of late has been a big boost on both ends of the court. Mike Neal has been great since his return to the team, although Neal had a rough outing on Thursday against Chattanooga. If Tab Hamilton can continue to shoot well, this Appalachian team will be on the rise, and they can hopefully forget about “The Chatty Collapse”

The Mountaineers opened as 1.5 point favorite against Samford on Saturday morning, and since, the line has ballooned to 3; Appalachian still considered a favorite. This has been an interesting trend  this season. Appalachian has done well against the spread this season, and it has drawn the interest from gamblers. We have never seen a line move  as much as it has this season. In the past, maybe one or two games, sees a line move during the course of an entire season. Now, it is almost a guarantee that the line will move. We liked the Mountaineers this morning at 1.5, which means you are basically picking a winner.  Three points makes things a little more interesting. We are going to give Appalachian a small benefit of the doubt. They had a rough half hour on Thursday, but everything had been rosy for most of the month. We’ll stick behind Appalachian and the points today, but will gladly take a ATS loss and straight up win.

Postgame:

Samford used its best game of the season to edge by Appalachian 72-68 on Saturday evening. The Bulldogs ripped the nets all night long, en route to shooting 54.5% for the game. Every time Appalachian made a push, Samford would put up another clutch shot. Appalachian was fortunate to only be down five points at halftime after Samford shot 63% in the first half. Appalachian remained in the game with eight made free throws in the first half and five three pointers.

Appalachian had several chances in the second half to take the lead or tie the game. In all, there were eighteen opportunities the Mountaineers had in the second half, where they were down by one possession, three points or fewer, and either turned the ball over, missed free throws, dunks or layups. Six such times in the second half, the Mountaineers were in the same situation only down one point. The Mountaineers were 3/8 from the free throw line in the second half. Would have been nice to have one or two of those back, to at least make the game a little more in reach down the stretch. However, this game did not boil down to what Appalachian did not do, but more of what Samford did. They hit every shot they needed to, and took care of the basketball by only committing nine turnovers. In college basketball, if you turn the ball over less than ten times and shoot over 50% from the field, you are going to win a lot of basketball games. We can manage a loss like this. The other team played lights out, but the sting of Thursday and “The Chatty Collapse” are still fresh in the minds of Mountaineer fans.

The Mountaineers have now fallen short of the spread in two straight games, moving them to 10-2 on the year, and our picks are now 9-3. It appears the conference schedule has now evened out to an extent. Appalachian has now played all of its Northern division opponents once. Wins over Elon and Greensboro and losses to Chattanooga, Samford and Western Carolina. Their record stands at 2-3 in the North, and quite simply, 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. The Mountaineers really should be 4-2 in conference play, but they will have to steal another game down the stretch to contend in the North.

When you consider the SoCon changed the seeding rules for the conference tournament, finishing second in the division is not good enough anymore. The Mountaineers are now two games behind first place Samford. The race for the third and fourth seeds in the tournament will be interesting down the stretch. I wonder if the conference had the smarts to create an inter-division tiebreaker formula with an unbalanced schedule for those coveted third and fourth seeds.

Currently if the tourney started today, this is how the seeds would be distributed. Interesting that the reason the SoCon implemented the new seeding porcess was so teams in the South, namely Wofford, would not finish with a 12-6 league record and be relegated to playing in the first round of the tournament. And now, the plan has backfired and three North teams hold down the top four spots.

Davidson    6-1

Samford    5-1

W. Carolina   5-2

Elon   4-2

 

Men’s Basketball 88 Chattanooga 91 (OT)

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The hottest team in the Southern Conference will face the “western” road trip this weekend when they play Chattanooga on Thursday and Samford on Saturday. First up is the Chattanooga Mocs (7-10, 2-2), who are returning from a four game road trip. The Mocs were 2-2 on the road trip, falling to Georgia Tech and Charleston while defeating Samford and The Citadel. If the Mocs have any true quality wins on the season, you can count the High Point team that Appalachian could not beat on their own home floor and most recently, a surprising Samford team that is 3-1 in SoCon play. The Mocs are a streaky team,with most of their wins coming with single digit margins, while their defeats are by double figures.

This is a big game for both Chattanooga and Appalachian. Not only does the game feature North Division opponents, which we knew mean so much as far as tiebreakers are concerned for the SoCon Tournament, but Appalachian currently holds a one game lead in the standings over Chattanooga. Appalachian (7-8, 3-1) is a half game out of first place behind Western Carolina who has one more win. Although Chattanooga is only a game out of second place in the North, they are only a half game out of the cellar in front of Greensboro, who defeated Wofford on Wednesday.

Chattanooga is led by a man named Z Mason, who leads the team in scoring (13.2)s and rebounding (7.1). Backing up Mason is Gee McGhee (9.6) and Ronrico White (9.4). Without a doubt, Chattanooga gets the award for having the all name team in the SoCon. I doubt there is another trio in the conference with such unique and repetitive names. As a team, Chattanooga shoots poorly from every area on the floor. Their three point shooting is last in the conference at 29.6%, while their field goal shooting stands at 41%, barely good enough for 10th in the twelve team SoCon. The Mocs are 11th in the conference shooting free throws at 65.6%.

In a matter of a few days, Appalachian has five players averaging double figures on the season: Jay Canty 15.3, Nathan Healy 14.3, Mike Neal 10.6, Tevin Baskin 10.3, and Tab Hamilton 10.2. The return of Mike Neal has been a huge lift. His absence at the beginning of the season was extremely undervalued. Neal has been a decent distributor, while adding the ability to get to the rim when needed. Tevin Baskin has also played better, becoming a valuable sixth man that can come off the bench and play thirty minutes if needed. Nathan Healy has been especially solid, creating mismatches on the perimeter for just about every one who defends him. Appalachian has started slow the last couple games, but has finished the first half of those games very strongly and carried it over into the second half to close out wins.

We are having a hard time not gushing over the Mountaineers and their unbelievable covers streak that have going this season. Appalachian is the only team that is perfect against the spread in the NCAA with a minimum of ten lines games at 10-0. On Tuesday, we hypothesized the spread for Thursday, and noted that a pick’em was possible. The first line we have seen is Appalachian being favored by one point. That is just about as good as a guess you can ask for. I would not be surprised if the line snuck up toward to -2 for Appalachian tomorrow. At this point, our hands are tied, and we are going to stick with Appalachian until it burns us. We are 9-1 this season, with our only miss coming in the opening game against East Carolina.

7:05 AM UPDATE: Line opened as a pick’em on our regular book. App stills looks solid here.

12:43 PM UPDATE: Line is now spotting the Mountaineers two points. Appalachian actually plays well at Chattanooga. I do not understand the movement. Everyone must be expecting Appalachian to lose eventually.

Postgame:

For thirty-four minutes, Appalachian looked like the team Mountaineers fans had seen for close to a month. Whatever happened in the final six minutes would be the most embarrassing moments to date this season if it were not for an infamous free throw attempt, which has only garnered 17.9 million YouTube hits. The Mountaineers managed to lose a nineteen point lead in the final 6:36 of the game. Chattanooga scored fifteen points in the first thirteen minutes and change of the second half, which is just over a point a minute. In the final third of the second half, the Mocs scored 33 points. They doubled their point total in the second half, in only half the time. This was an utter collapse of epic proportions.

Once Appalachian gained the nineteen point lead, at the 6:36 mark of the second half, the Mountaineers only grabbed one rebound for the rest of regulation. That was a rebound by Nathan Healy with 5:56 to play. Over the same period of time, the final 6:36 of regulation, Chattanooga grabbed 11 rebounds, six offensive and five defensive. Those six offensive rebounds led to ten second chance points for the Mocs. Ten of their twelve second half points came in the final 6:36. That is inexcusable.

Four Mountaineers scored in double figures. Most importantly, Tab Hamilton scored 21 points and may have broken out of his slump. Although the Roundhouse has been a horror house for Appalachian as a team over the years, it has been a place where Mountaineer shooting guards have had some of their best games. Nathan Cranford hit ten three pointers in a game there in 2007, and Noah Brown hit nine threes in a game in Chattanooga in 2004. Hamilton hit five threes on the night. Nathan Healy added 22 points and 10 rebounds. Jay Canty scored 19 points and Tevin Baskin scored 11 with 7 rebounds.

For the first time all season, Appalachian lost against the spread. The line closed at +2, and of course the the Mountaineers (10-1 ATS) lost by three in overtime. We are not quite sure if this collapse was an anomaly, or a sign of things to come. This was a game that Appalachian had in hand, and literally gave it away. Our record falls to 9-2 on the year. This one stung, which is also why we needed a day to “cool off” before writing about it. Appalachian should still be favored over Samford on Saturday evening, but it will not be by many points. Every home team in the SoCon won on Thursday night, including Davidson and Western Carolina losing on the road in very winnable games.

North
Samford 4-1 .800 2-1 2-0 0-0 W3 6-12 .333 3-4 3-6 0-2 W3
Western Carolina 4-2 .667 2-1 2-1 0-0 L2 7-11 .389 4-2 2-8 1-1 L2
Elon 3-2 .600 1-1 2-1 0-0 W2 10-7 .588 6-2 4-5 0-0 W2
Chattanooga 3-2 .600 1-1 2-1 0-0 W1 8-10 .444 5-6 3-4 0-0 W1
Appalachian State 3-2 .600 2-0 1-2 0-0 L1 7-9 .438 5-2 2-7 0-0 L1
UNCG 2-3 .400 2-0 0-3 0-0 W1 4-12 .250 4-4 0-8 0-0 W1

Men’s Basketball 83 UNC-Greensboro 70

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Appalachian concludes its homestand with a game against UNC-Greesboro on Monday night. Greensboro is having a very tough season, standing at 3-11 and 1-2 in conference play. The Spartans were considered a team that could win the North Division, but have not played that well. They have lost several plays to injuries recently and are short handed at the wrong time of the year. Trevis Simpson has recently had an ankle injury and a concussion, according to uncgspartans.com. The school says that Simpson is a game-time decision on Monday. Korey Van dussen broke his wrist in practice recently and he will be out for a month or more. Freshman center RJ White is also out for the season.

Darrell Armstrong has been carrying the Spartans recently. Armstrong averages 16.6 points per game but has only started four games. Armstrong has scored in double figures in all but two games this season, and tied a season high with 25 points against Western Carolina on Saturday. Simpson averages 18.0 points per game and is easily an all-SoCon performer when he is healthy. Greensboro has a very athletic team and they are tough to defend in transition. Last year, Greensboro won two of the three meetings. Greensboro overcame a huge deficit to beat Appalachian at home in overtime, and then overpowered the Mountaineers in the SoCon tourney.

We are thinking the Mountaineers should be favored here. Eventually Vegas is going to figure out Appalachian. A team cannot go an entire season covering the spread every games. Eventually things will start evening out. Regardless, we are thinking Appalachian is going to be 3 to 5 point favorite tomorrow night. We will update the spread throughout the day on Monday.

5:24 UPDATE: It took all afternoon to get a line up, despite several other SoCon games being out up last night, the Appalachian game was slow to get line. One site lined it at -4.5, but our primary book has it at -5.5 in favor of the Mountaineers. I think that is a very slippery number, and tonight could be the night the Apps lose their cover streak. However, we are going to ride the Mountaineers until they burn us. We will take the Mountaineers.

6:05 UPDATE: For what it is worth, the line has moved to -4.

Postgame:

After falling behind by as many as ten points in the first half, Appalachian exploded for 51 second half points en route to its fifth straight win, 83-70 over UNC-Greensboro. Appalachian came out of halftime down seven, and went on a 18-2 run that surged them ahead by nine points. Appalachian encountered several small runs by the Spartans in the second half, but responded every time with a huge basket of their own.

Perhaps the most noticeable statistic that gives some credit to Appalachian, is how well they have shot free throws and taken care of the basketball recently. Appalachian only turned the ball over nine times against Greensboro, while also getting to the free throw line thirty-four times. Appalachian converted twenty-eight of its free throws for a 82% clip for the game. On the other hand, Greensboro only hit eleven of their eighteen free throw attempts while Appalachian was making its run.

If there is one concern with this recent streak, is that the team is playing a very short bench. Jamaal Trice continues to play limited minutes off the bench due to illnesses. Michael Obacha played twelve minutes, the most action he has seen, mostly by staying out of foul trouble. Chris Burgess played twelve minutes as well, and hit a huge three pointer in the first half. Outside of those three, the rest of team is playing a large number of minutes each night. Nathan Healy (37), Tab Hamilton (35), and Jay Canty (32) and Mike Neal (32) are all averaging well over thirty minutes the last few games. Tevin Baskin played 29 minutes off the bench against UNCG. The scary thing, is this team is an injury away from being in real trouble due to depth.

Four Mountaineers scored in double figures, which will probably continue as long as they are playing thirty-plus minutes each game out. Healy led all scorers with 24 points while also snagging nine rebounds and swatting three shots. Mike Neal scored nineteen points, with nine of those coming on the three point line. Baskin added sixteen points, four rebounds and three steals. Canty was the final double digit scorer for the Apps with 14 points and nine rebounds. Tab Hamilton continues to struggle to find his shot, but has played good defense the last two games, first chasing Elon’s Jack Isenbarger on Saturday, and then playing against a very athletic group of wing players from Greensboro. 

For Greensboro, Trevin Simpson did play, but did not start. Simpson finished with 22 points in 27 minutes. Simpson easily has one of the best jumpshots coming off the dribble in the conference. Derrell Armstong finished with 20 points, but no other Spartan scored in double figures. Greensboro is a dangerous team thanks to Simpson and Armstrong, and can beat any team in this league on any given night. The rest of thir roster is a motley crew. Nobody really scares you. Simpson and Armstrong combined for sixteen of the twenty-three Spartan field goals.

Finally, after a line that was posted late in the day, and saw a lot of action in the hours leading up to the game, it finally settled down right where we figured it would. Although the book we use says the final line was -5.5, we know it was closer to 4 as tipoff approached. Regardless, Appalachian covered again, for the tenth time this season. The Mountaineers have yet to lose a game against the spread this season. It is really hard to believe, that a team with an RPI in the high 280’s has yet to lose against the spread. We know this will eventually even out, but for the time being, we are going to enjoy this most unlikely of statistics. The thought is that Appalachian could be considered favorites in its next two road games at Chattanooga and Samford. If we have to guess, a pick’em  could be very likely on Saturday at the Roundhouse.

North
Western Carolina 4-1 .800 2-1 2-0 0-0 L1 7-10 .412 4-2 2-7 1-1 L1
Appalachian State 3-1 .750 2-0 1-1 0-0 W3 7-8 .467 5-2 2-6 0-0 W5
Samford 3-1 .750 1-1 2-0 0-0 W2 5-12 .294 2-4 3-6 0-2 W2
Elon 2-2 .500 0-1 2-1 0-0 W1 9-7 .563 5-2 4-5 0-0 W1
Chattanooga 2-2 .500 0-1 2-1 0-0 L1 7-10 .412 4-6 3-4 0-0 L1
UNCG 1-3 .250 1-0 0-3 0-0 L3 3-12 .200 3-4 0-8 0-0 L2

Men’s Basketball 80 Elon 70

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Appalachian hosts Elon at approxiamately 4:30pm Saturday afternoon in a game that will have tiebreaker implications as far the SoCon tournament goes. Realizing this is only the third conference game for both teams this season, both teams know each game between divisional opponents has been critical the last several years. Both teams stand 1-1 in the conference standings and could really use a win for confidence. A 2-1 conference record looks and feels a lot better than 1-2. This is the first home conference game of the season for Appalachian. Elon will be playing their second conference road game.

Elon has been playing like team that prefers a slower pace and does a really good job of taking care of the basketball. Yes, Elon averages close to 70 points per game, but have only managed 54.5 points per contest in two conference games. The Phoenix have also only committed twelve turnovers in each conference game, against Charleston and Georgia Southern, both members of the Southern Division. Elon has used the same starting lineup in all but two games, and are led by forward Lucas Troutman and sharp shooting guard Jack Isenbarger. Troutman averages 14.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Isenbarger averages scoring 14.6 per game, and leads the team in three pointers and free throws made. Sebaston Koch is also deadly from three point range shooting 44.6% behind the arc while also snagging 4.9 rebounds per game.

For Appalachian, the season has slowly turned around for the positive. Part of that turn around is having their starting point guard back in Mike Neal. Even though Neal has not put up monster numbers, the team has a better chemistry with him in the game. Neal has averaged 7.6 points and 3.8 assists per game. Tevin Baskin has been turning it up the level play as well in the last few games. He has seen increased playing time and has pushed his averaged to 9.5 points per game. Nathan Healy has continued to shoot well from all points on the floor. Healy is a 55% shooter from the field, 44% three point shooter and 88% free throw shooter. Jay Canty continues to lead the team in scoring at 15.6 points per game, but has fallen off recently while he battles a sore thumb.

We are guessing the spread to be somewhere in the 3.5 to 6 point range in favor of Elon. The Phoenix has a much higher RPI, and defeated South Carolina, while the Mountaineers fell just short. However, Elon has not won in Boone since 2007, and is 2-13 all time in Boone. Appalachian played perhaps its best game of the season last year in a 15 point home win over the Phoenix. We will update in the morning on the actual number. Appalachian is still the only undefeated team against the spread in college basketball at 8-0 on the season. Our picks are 7-1 on the season.

12:18 AM UPDATE: Elon opens as a 1.5 point favorite. We had some slight premonitions that we were off in this game, and that we could be looking at a pick’em. However, Appalachian at +1.5 at home, where Elon has only won twice in fifteen previous attempts, seems pretty fair. An easy play would be to buy 0.5 points down on the Apps to ensure a push. We will update our play in the morning once Vegas has time to change they line if they seem necessary.

Postgame:

Appalachian trailed by as many as 12 points in the first half, but rallied for their second straight SoCon win in a 80-70 victory over Elon. The Phoenix started the game with everything falling. At one point, they had hit seven of their first nine shots to take a quick twelve point lead. In fact Elon led by twelve points on three different occasions in the first half, at 21-9, 29-17 and 31-19. Appalachian went on a 15-3 run to end the half, and tie the score a 34.

The second half was tight early on, but Appalachian eventually stretched the lead out on the back of its superb three point shooting. Five different Mountaineers combined to hit ten threes. Nathan Healy and Mike Neal each hit three apiece. Neal hit every one of his attempts. Appalachian finished with five players in double figures, led by Healy’s 22 points, 8 rebounds and four steals. Tevin Baskin came off the bench and continued his strong play with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Mike Neal added 17 points and three assists. Tab Hamilton added ten points, but his best work was done on Elon star Jack Isenbarger, who was held to nine points, making only one three pointer. Ryley Beaumont has the game of his life, hitting 11/13 shots for 26 points while grabbing nine rebounds.

Appalachian has now won four straight games and five of six. Even more impressive, Appalachian has now covered in all of its lined games this season. Eventually oddsmakers will figure out Appalachian, currently 9-0 against the spread. Our pick was correct again and we have improved to 8-1 on the season. Greensboro is next at home and Appalachian will most likely be favored against the struggling Spartans, who are 3-11 on the season, and 0-2 in SoCon play. We believe Appalachian will be favored by 3 to 5 points. As usual, we will update the line in the morning.

Men’s Basketball 50 Wofford 49

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The SoCon gauntlet begins tomorrow evening for Appalachian. Seventeen straight games against conference opponents. On Tuesday, Appalachian resumes conference play against Wofford, who like Appalachian, is 0-1 in SoCon play. Both teams really need a win, perhaps Wofford even more so. If the Terriers want to contend in the SoCon South, they will need to keep pace with Davidson, who they have already lost to in early December.

Wofford grabbed the attention of college basketball before Christmas with a one point win on the road at Xavier. Prior to that, the Terriers had lost to some mid-majors that they should have competed with better than they did. Wofford put up some ugly point totals against UNCW (37), Gardner Webb (54) and Ohio (50). However that is Wofford’s style, a Princeton-esque offense that utilizes the shot clock and plays a slow down game, very similar to their football team and the wingbone. Honestly, they are a boring team to scout and watch because they have a team of players whose skill levels are not that far apart from top to bottom, and they play together.

Regardless, the Terriers are 3-0 at home this season, with wins over Winhrop and Gardner Webb and a non-D I win over Weber Intl. The rest of their eleven games have been on the road. Wofford has only scored 87 points their last two games, but Appalachian might be exactly what they are looking for. The Mountaineer defense has been bad all year, mostly in transition. Wofford prefers the halfcourt game, so the Mountaineers may have a small edge in that category. Even though Wofford is scoring in small bunches, they have three players averaging in double figures. Karl Cochran leads the team with 16.1 points per game, and has hit 42 three pointers this season. Lee Skinner averages 10.9 points and 6.9 rebounds while Spencer Collins scores 10.7 per game with 27 made threes. The scary thing for the SoCon, is that all three are underclassmen, with at least two more years to play. They are young, and will make mistakes, and be out of position on defense, but they are still solid.

The early spread says that the Mountaineers are ten point underdogs on the road. This is exactly what we have been looking for all season when picking a game. The Mountaineers are a perfect 7-0 this season against the spread, and I doubt this game stays so high. Appalachian is one everyone’s radar in Vegas, and I bet this line could move as much as 1.5 points before the game tips off. We will update with a line in the morning. In the meantime, we are gonna stay on Appalachian at +10.

UPDATE: Our main book that we use opened this morning at +8 and in two hours it has moved back to +9. It is very likely this line moves again, and I think it could go either way, but I would think towards 9.5.

UPDATE II: Just a couple hours before tipoff, the line moved again to 9.5, but it was shortlived as the line closed at +9 before tipoff. We have no reason to change our pick and we will stay with the Mountaineers.

 

Postgame: It was not a pretty game, but it was effective. Sometimes you have to win ugly, and any time you win on the road in conference play it is a big plus. Appalachian won its third straight game with a 50-49 win over Wofford on Tuesday night. The Mountaineers led by one at halftime, and overcame a seven point deficit with seven minutes to play the secure the victory.

Opening the second half, Appalachian went on a 11-3 run to lead 36-27 before Wofford called a timeout with 17:15 to play. From there, Wofford responded with a 20-4 run that spanned the next nine minutes of the ball game to take a seven point lead with 8:29 to play. Appalachian rallied to score ten of the final twelve points of the game to hold on for the win. Wofford failed to score for the final 6:57 of the game while the Mountaineers took their time scoring the final eight points of the game.

Nathan Healy was the star of the game for Appalachian with 10 points, five rebounds and several altered shots that did not make it to the official scorer. Healy says he blocked three shots, despite only being credited for one. Tevin Baskin came off the bench to score 10 points and grab four rebounds, including a huge blocked shot with under a minute to play. Jay Canty chipped in with eight points and nine rebounds.

For the seventh straight lined game, we were able to correctly make the right play against the spread. Our record is 7-1 on the season, while the Mountaineers have covered every game that has been lined. That mark is the best in college basketball. The closest team to Appalachian’s 8-0 record against the spread is Gardner-Webb, who is 3-0. All the moving of the line prior to the game proved to be a moot statistic as Appalachian also won straight up in a lined game for only the second time this season. Next up for Appalachian is Elon on Saturday, and I expect the Mountaineers to once again be underdogs, maybe by as many as six points. I could see the line being as low as 3.5

Men’s Basketball 71 Milligan 51

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Pregame:

This afternoon’s game will be the final tune up of the season for the Mountaineers when they take on Milligan. From here on out, seventeen conference games will prepare Appalachian for the conference tournament. In the meantime, Millgan brings in a team that is over halfway through their season, with eight wins and seven losses. Milligan’s schedule consists of bunch of schools you have never heard of. Their Division I slate includes Liberty, and East Tennessee State, both which were lopsided losses. Montreat is the only common opponent as Milligan was able to win by by eleven points at home, while the Mountaineers claimed a thirty point win in their season opening exhibition game.

Appalachian should win this game easily, but don’t be surprised if Milligan keeps it close. Milligan held off Appalachian for a good portion of the game last year before falling by 23 points on Thanksgiving weekend. Milligan is a team that loves the three pointer and will take the shot when its there. Four players on their roster have hit twelve three pointers or more, with sixth man Scott Blake hitting 28 threes despite only averaging 16 minutes a game.

There is no spread for this game.

Postgame:

Appalachian opened up an eleven point halftime lead and eventually cruised pasts Milligan by twenty points. It was an uneasy win as Appalachian shot poorly in all aspects of the game. Chalk it up to the midseason blues if you want, but this was a game that was ugly to watch. Appalachian managed only 38% shooting for the game. Even worse, the Mountaineers were under 50% from the free throw line.

Somehow, Nathan Healy pulled in a massive double-double with 17 points and 15 rebounds. Jay Canty had a thumb taped up and that forced him to struggle shooting the ball, missing all six free throw attempts. In an odd twist, Mike Neal managed to get disciplined to only play seven minutes. Because of this, it’s time for some soapbox. It was later learned that Neal was late for a morning practice on gameday. So Neal, who missed nine games due to academic issues in the classroom, during his incredibly challenging freshman year of classes, has now been late to a team meeting. When is he going to understand the team means more than himself. At what point does he understand what his basketball scholarship means? It is obviously the only thing keeping him in school, considering his situation. (Hopping off the soapbox.)