Appalachian State (5-5, 3-4) @ Georgia Southern (7-4, 5-2)

Saturday, November 30th, 2024 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Paulson Stadium

Capacity: 25,000

Surface: FieldTurf Vertex Prestige

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 65.59

Georgia Southern: 66.64

Home: 3.26

Georgia Southern is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4.31 points

VegasInsider Line: Georgia Southern -2.5

Series: App State leads 21-16-1

Last Meeting: App State 55, Georgia Southern, 27 November 25, 2023, Boone, NC

Here we are again. We have come to the point in the season when both sides have something to play for, and neither would like nothing more than to kill any hopes the other side has. It’s Georgia Southern week and nothing will make your skin crawl on either side quite like thinking about the other team. Both sides realize what is at stake. The Eagles need a win and some help from James Madison, who was just knocked out of Sun Belt contention after falling to our Mountaineers last weekend. On the other other hand, for App State, after an up and down season, there is still one more opportunity to salvage a season with a sixth win and bowl eligibility. But most of those possibilities are nothing but talk when it comes to these two schools. Not a single player will be thinking about championship games or bowl games. The only thing on anyone’s mind will be winning that day, because when it comes to App State and Georgia Southern, winning that game is the only thing that matters.

The Eagles have had a pretty ho-hum season to date. There is not a lot that stands out as for as results are concerned, but there are a couple games that have are noteworthy if you have not paid attention. Everyone remembers the shootout against Boise State to start the season where Bronco running back and Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty broke out for 267 yards and six touchdowns. The best stretch of the of the Eagles season came when they won three straight games over a four week span in what was essentially three home games, playing Georgia State in Atlanta, and defeating Marshall and James Madison in back to back weeks in Statesboro. Southern overcame at 23-3 deficit to Marshall, all in the last ten minutes of the fourth quarter to steal one from the Herd. They followed that with a convincing 28-14 win over the Dukes in which they never trailed. Southern then went on the road to Old Dominion and were beaten soundly on the Thursday following the JMU win. The next week, another miracle happened, as Southern scored 20 unanswered in the fourth quarter to come back and beat South Alabama 34-30 in Mobile. Southern’s record could easily be 5-6 if it were not for those two improbable fourth quarter rallies.

Georgia Southern’s offense is predominantly a high volume passing attack, but not a highly efficient one. They rank fifth in the conference with 246.6 passing yards a game, but are only ninth in the fourteen team Sun Belt in yards per attempt. They do a lot of work between the 20’s in the passing game, but once they get into the red zone, they have 17 rushing touchdowns to only 10 passing touchdowns. JC French has been the primary quarterback for Southern this season, tossing for 2,453 yards, 15 TD’s and seven interceptions. French played sparingly against App State last season in Boone, mainly in mop-up duty, but did throw a 25-yard touchdown pass in those limited minutes. French had big games this season against Boise, where he threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Against Coastal last week, he threw for his second highest total of the season with 294 yards. He had three touchdown passes against James Madison, but also threw a season high three interceptions in the same game.

Last weekend had just about everything you can ask for going on outside of the football game. The James Madison game had previously been scheduled for Black Saturday, and Senior Day, and due to the Liberty game being cancelled due to Hurricane Helene, Homecoming festivities were added to a busy Saturday. On top of that, the High Country welcomed another kind of storm on Friday, as snow showers fell most of the day and into Saturday morning. Former professional football player Jason Kelce also dropped by and visited various tailgates, and spent time with both the radio and streaming broadcasts. So if that was not a busy enough day, the Mountaineers played one of the better games of the season, forcing two big turnovers against the Dukes, one being a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown, and the Mountaineers were not flagged for a penalty the entire game. Wide receiver Makai Jackson had a huge day with five catches for 162 yards and a touchdown, while Ahmani Marshall plowed his way toward another 100-yard performance on twenty-four carries. With the win, App State knocked the Dukes out the Sun Belt championship “contention” for the second straight year.

So it all comes down to this. One game for the hope of playing another. It’s a playoff type mindset heading into this final game of the regular season. Hopefully, if the Mountaineers win, there will be room at the table for another team in bowl season. The bowl committees will not have to reach past the 6-6 teams to fill spots this season, so there is a chance the Mountaineers could be left out even with a win. So what’s the plan? Play this one like it is your last. Hurricane Helene will always be a part of the story of the 2024 season. It changed our mountains, but it did not change who we are. Once this program was past the immediate danger of the storm, the identity of this team was restored. It may have taken some time to find their footing, but wins in three of the last five games cannot be ignored. The Mountaineers have played well enough in those three games they won, all at home, to keep the season alive. However they will still have to overcome to problems that have plagued them on the road all season long. The Mountaineers have not scored first in a road game this season. Their turnover margin in these road games is -12. Negative 12. App State was able to snag a win over East Carolina with a -1 margin, but in the other four games, the margin was -2 or worse, and they lost by 10 or more points in each game. Take care of the ball. The Mountaineers were able to play keep away against James Madison, who was the most opportunistic turnover team in the country going into last week. Georgia Southern has a +1 margin on the season, which is middle of the pack in all the land. Moving on, you may have noticed that Georgia Southern’s pass defense is a bottom fifteen unit in the country in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Eagles have allowed 200 or more yards passing in eight of their eleven games, and 270 or more yards in seven games. It’s been an issue for them all season. Meanwhile, Southern has also not been great at stopping the run this season, and have given up 189 yards rushing per game over the last four games. On the other side, Southern has not been great running the ball this season, averaging just 117 yards per game, but could that be a strength for them on Saturday, especially with colder temperatures expected? The Eagles played in 60 degree and sunny conditions last weekend in Conway, so it’s possible that intangible could swing in favor of the away team. All the stats are fun to look at and think about, but in this game, as it always has, it will come down to who wants it more. Both sides have something to play for, which sets this game up as a potential classic.

The First Pick

Gnatsboro 30

Mountaineers 37

Appalachian State (4-5, 2-4) vs James Madison (8-2, 4-2)

Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 63.02

James Madison: 72.23

Home: 3.12

James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 6.09 points

VegasInsider Line: James Madison -7

Series: App State leads 13-5

Last Meeting: App State 26, James Madison, 23 November 18, 2023, Harrisonburg, VA

Now, with just two games remaining in the regular season, the Mountaineers are firmly backed up against the wall. If they want to play another game beyond this weekend and next, they have to win both games. And what two better opponents to play, then against two teams who have provided some surprising results of late. We all know how you can toss out the records when the Mountaineers and Eagles play. And the last couple seasons have provided exciting games between App State and James Madison. In 2022, the Mountaineers had no business losing that game, giving up a huge first half lead after one of the most controversial non-calls by an officiating group that I have ever seen. And then again in 2023, James Madison was likely the better team, but it was App State that led the entire game, until the Dukes improbably forced overtime before the Mountaineers walked them off. Some schools want to manufacture a rivalry. When it comes to App State and James Madison, you let the games speak for themselves.

James Madison has had a very solid season to date. A lot of teams will take an 8-2 record at this point in the season. The Dukes are also still in contention for a championship game berth, but they need to take care of business these next two weeks to give themselves a chance, and also get some help from the Mountaineers next weekend. James Madison currently sits third in the division, behind Georgia Southern due to a tiebreaker that was decided in a head-to-head matchup that the Eagles won 28-14. Marshall sits atop the division with a 5-1 conference record, and James Madison will host the Herd next weekend. The Dukes are fresh off a win over Old Dominion in Norfolk in which they had to rally in the second half after facing a three point deficit at halftime. The Dukes and Monarchs have played tight games in each of the last two seasons, both decided by three points and won by the Dukes.

After last season, when Curt Cignetti jumped to Indiana, he took a lot of help with him to Bloomington. After the fallout, Jordan McCloud went to play for Texas State and Tino Sunseri, the James Madison quarterbacks coach followed Cignetti. Bryant Haines served as JMU’s linebacker’s coach from 2019-2023 and also hitched a ride with Sunseri to Indiana. However, when Bob Chesney was hired away from Holy Cross, the cupboard was not completely bare at James Madison. An additional fourteen players from Madison also made the leap. They have plenty depth to contend in the Sun Belt, but they have taken a small step backwards from 2023. That makes the Dukes an easy target. There will always be some type of fallout when a program reaches peak national exposure with a College Gameday appearance, and then does not deliver in the following games with the expectations that are sky high. After James Madison lost to App State last year, they destroyed Coastal, but the staff exodus occurred prior to their bowl loss to Air Force.

I mentioned earlier this season how I hate discussing old box scores from what seems like weeks ago. We are long past a game from November 7th which resulted in the same inconsistencies that have led to many other losses this season. But that loss to Coastal fell firmly in the category of getting too cute when it was unnecessary. A naked bootleg on a 1st and Goal situation from the five yard line is getting too cute. It’s especially getting too cute when you have run the ball five times for 39 yards to get down the field. And when you play a team like Coastal, you cannot give them any indication that you have lost momentum. They love playing with the lead. A turnover after going down 7-0 takes away any type of game plan that was in place. Coastal went on to score on that drive, and suddenly the Mountaineers were down 14-0 with no hope of a comeback.

The inconsistencies of this Mountaineer group is probably the most frustrating part of being a fan. It does not feel like its been this way ever before. Making light of injury concerns is valid, but sometimes does not pass the smell test to the casual fan. It does not hurt that the majority of the injuries have come on one side of the ball that does not share the same limelight as the offensive side. And then that happened last week when the Mountaineers lost Kaedin Robinson, one of the more valuable offensive threats. His last play of his college career was a meaningless touchdown, which sort of feels like how this season has gone. A step forward and two steps back. James Madison has also lost players due to injury at the running back spot, but still they remain in a conference title hunt. Madison has a balanced offense, and that balance is one reason why they are very good. But when they have struggled in games this season, it has been noticeable from the start. On the road at Georgia Southern in October, the Dukes were only able to muster 67 yards on the ground, which was a season low. Southern has been giving up yards all season long on the ground, ranking 103rd in the country, and 8th out of fourteen teams in the Sun Belt. So, there is hope? James Madison’s second worst rushing game of the season also occurred on the road at UL-Monroe. They ran for 148 yards. In both games, the Dukes were held to under 20 points. There are a couple nuggets here, in that James Madison is 3-0 on the road in games played in North Carolina and Virginia, with shorter travel itinerary, while they are 0-2 with longer travel. James Madison also does an excellent job on the turnover front. They are the best team in the country in turnover margin at +1.9 per game. The difference between James Madison and the second best team Notre Dame is +.4. That is absurd. So clearly, a team like Appalachian which has thrown 14 interceptions on the year, and James Madison which has intercepted 17 passes and returned four for touchdowns, is a problem. There is no way Appalachian has a chance to win this game if they turn the ball over like they have all season long. The Mountaineers have to have the right combination of smart play calling and smart play to come out on top on Saturday.

The First Pick

Furple Dogs 27

Mountaineers 30

Appalachian State (3-3, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ Old Dominion (3-3, 2-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 21st, 2023 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium

Capacity: 21,944

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.27

Coastal Carolina: 59.13

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.71 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -6.5

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last Meeting: App State 27, Old Dominion 14, November 19, 2022, Boone, NC

The field goal giveth, and the field goal taketh away. In the third straight game, the kicking game became the difference in a football game. It’s been an up and down journey. The insanity of September 2022 decided make a make a curtain call in 2023, and is stretching the applause clear into October. No mistaking, its been a wild time to be a fan. With each passing week of close games, decided by a play or two, some doubt starts to creep into everyone’s thoughts. It’s impossible to block it all out. It might be one of the most difficult parts of anyone’s job, questioning if they can make it work like they had hoped. Tough times never last. Eventually it end’s one direction or another. Many conference champions have been decided with a conference loss on their resume. Sometimes even with multiple losses. The leaves are turning in the High Country, but they have not fallen yet. There is a lot of football season left, and everyone in the Sun Belt East has a chance.

Where does one start with the Monarchs? This group might be the most confusing team to figure out in the Sun Belt. Old Dominion has played a schedule that one can categorize as semi-difficult. They have played two ACC teams in Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. They trailed the Hokies at half by six points on opening weekend, but could not find any offense in the second half, before falling 36-17. Two weeks later, they led Wake Forest 17-0 at half, and 24-7 deep into the third quarter before allowing the Deacons to score the final 20 points of the game, losing 27-24. In two games against Sun Belt opponents, both were high scoring affairs, with the Monarchs throwing the ball all over Louisiana, and running it all over Marshall. And the final two games, against Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce, were low scoring matchups, and were decided in the fourth quarter. All of this to describe a team that can play with P5’s, can play against above average conference opponents, but can also struggle with some very bad teams.

Grant Wilson and Jack Shields have both played five games for Monarchs at quarterback. The problem is the Monarchs have played six games. It was Wilson who went 13/19 for a season high 247 yards with 4 touchdown passes in the win over Louisiana. Wilson did not play against Marshall, which left Shields to open the scoring on a 66 yard touchdown run in the opening minute. Shields also threw three interceptions against the Herd in a game where the Monarchs ran for 356 yards and somehow still lost. Both quarterbacks complete just a hair over 50% of their passes and have combined for 9 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Excluding one game here and there makes those numbers look increasingly different. Take away those 4 TD passes against Louisiana, and that TD/INT ratio looks downright ugly. The same can be said about the three interception game against Marshall. That ratio becomes tolerable. So which quarterback shows on up on Saturday?

It’s been so long since last Tuesday night, and quite honestly, revisiting any of still seems too fresh on the mind. The major concern is obvious. Nate Noel carried the ball one time, gained a yard, and left the game. The most recent update to his ankle is that he is still under evaluation. Coach speak this all you want, but based on the current information, he’s likely a game time decision. That leaves the running game in the hands of several backs who could see an increased role. Kanye Roberts was the only Mountaineer running back to break ten carries after Noel’s departure, and could see an increased role. It’s also possible that Roberts does not see Noel-like distribution and this backfield becomes a true committee. Roberts has been the most effective, with 5.5 yards per carry, with just thirty carries on the year.

The Mountaineer defense has now gone three straight weeks giving up a big play or multiple plays. You could even sprinkle in a play or two from ECU and UNC, but those did not hurt the Apps like they last three weeks felt. Wyoming’s big run negated the Mountaineers pick six. Monroe, out of literally nowhere, completed big pass play after big pass play, and Coastal followed suit. At first these plays trickled in, and then last week, it felt like an avalanche. Enter Old Dominion, whose offense cannot move the chains, hold the ball or convert third downs, but you know what they can do? They can hit the big play. Ten of their sixteen offensive touchdown plays have travelled 30 yards or more. There is no greater lesson about keeping your gaps minded and staying on top of the ball than what the Mountaineers will see this weekend.

After several weeks of dealing with similar issues on the defensive side of the ball, App State will have to gear up for a team that sticks to their plan of finding weaknesses to exploit when they are on offense. Despite this trend becoming the norm of late, it’s a topic that coaches bring up weekly to their players. In some cases, you may not have the horses to stop it, and in other scenarios, it’s all about positioning, which can always be corrected. We’ve mentioned these explosive plays as the way that Old Dominion has scored more than half of their offensive touchdowns. Keep in mind those sixteen scores have come in six games, which means they are scoring less than three touchdowns per game. The Monarchs have only had six other scoring “drives” this season. Putting this all together, Old Dominion is incredibly inefficient on offense. They average close to six yards a play, outgaining their opponents by nearly a full yard per play, yet are outgained by about twenty yards a game in total offense, while also being dominated in time of possession by close to 13 minutes a game. Still, they have played in five straight one score games. This matchup is a reminder that what you see in box scores and stat sheets can lead you astray from the actual product on the field. The way the Mountaineers have also played in four games decided by one possession might lead one to believe that we could be heading down the same road again. If you are rooting for App State, how must they avoid a repeat of past performances? I believe this all comes down to covering your assignments. As much as we have discussed how Old Dominion thrives on the big play, over the course of a game, they are still very inconsistent. The focus of the App State defense should be on winning each series. On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers must find a way to consistently run the football. The Monarchs have yet to surrender a 100-yard rusher on defense to a running back. The only player to do so, was Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. The defensive alignment tricks offensive coordinators into running, but the Monarchs remain in pursuit. The best way to get safeties away from the line of scrimmage is to open the passing game up. Old Dominion has been burned repeatedly by competent passing offenses, which excludes Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce. A steady dose and Aguilar and company should put the Monarchs on their heels enough for a close win for the Mountaineers.

The First Pick:

Royals 23

Mountaineers 31

Appalachian State (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Coastal Carolina (2-3, 0-2 Sun Belt)

Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN2

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.84

Coastal Carolina: 67.01

Home: 2.30

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 6.13 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -5.5

Series: App State leads 7-2

Last Meeting: Coastal 35, App State 28, October 3, 2022, Conway, SC

After two long road trips, the Mountaineers were granted a couple extra days to rest before a Tuesday night primetime matchup with Coastal Carolina. Once a Saturday is skipped for these weeknight games, it feels like you have not been on the field in ages. Quickly these two schools will rekindle a budding friendship that has produced homefield winners in each of the last four games. The last two games have created winners by a touchdown or less. The modern history of this series has provided some suspenseful games that have gone down to the wire. This will be the third straight year that App and Coastal have faced off on a weeknight. The conference and television networks could not have planned it better. Mix in the best atmosphere in the conference under the lights, along with some fall foliage and cooler weather, and the stage is set. These teams might be different one year to the next, but there is always one variable that never changes. Night games at The Rock.

Here come the Chanticleers. On paper, it does not appear they are their normal selves. It’s easy to look at their won-loss record and see that. Their wins are over Duquesne and FBS-transitioning Jacksonville State. Their losses include UCLA, and both Sun Belt Georgia schools. This is easily Coastal’s worst start to a season since 2019, which predates the Grayson McCall era. Opposing fans have been calling for the downfall of the Chanticleers for some time. Some of that could have been wishful thinking. Yet, one could argue, that Chants have not garnered a quality win since October 29th of last year, when they defeated Marshall 24-13 in Huntington. Since that game, Coastal’s record is 4-6. Two of those wins were this season, and the others were over an App State squad that went 6-6, and Southern Miss who went 7-6 with a bowl win over Rice. Coastal started 2022 going 9-1, and lost their last three games to James Madison, Troy and East Carolina. In the height of the McCall era, those games last season and the three losses in 2023, were games they could typically win.

You would be crazy to think we were done talking Grayson McCall. Coastal’s rise in 2020, some considered, was all due to his unique style. Now some are starting to wonder if it was all Jamey Chadwell. The truth was probably in the middle. McCall and Chadwell were good for each other. Thus, when Chadwell went north to Liberty, McCall flirted with a move himself. Surprisingly, he had no takers. Imagine that. Now, McCall will be trying to bounce back from possibly his worst game of his career. In his previous three seasons combined, he had only thrown eight total interceptions. Last week, he threw four interceptions against Georgia Southern. That leaves McCall with the same number of picks this season as touchdown passes. In his previous three seasons, he never failed to throw at least 24 touchdown passes. His completion percentage is currently the lowest of his career at 64%, which is still a decent number, yet not vintage McCall. He’s also just behind pace to eclipse his passing yardage totals in a season, which he set in 2021.

How about that defense? You might be questioning my sanity right now. Warranted? Who knows. In all seriousness, it was the defensive plays that were made in a shootout that combined for 81 points that won the game for the Mountaineers against Monroe. Micheal Hughes made the kick. The offense, on the back of Kaedin Robinson marched down the field to set up Hughes. But it was the defense that turned Monroe away four consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter. It was the only quarter in which Monroe did not score, and the only time of the game that Monroe had four consecutive possessions and did not come away with points. After teams traded turnovers in the fourth quarter, it was the defense, trailing by two points, who stopped Monroe on 3rd and goal from the 1 yard, and then sacked Jiya Wright for a seven yard loss on fourth down, who saved this game. With 5:21 remaining in the game, the Mountaineers could not afford to go down more than one score. On the ensuing Monroe possession, the defense forced a punt on three plays to set the offense up for the game-winning drive.

The most underrated performance last Saturday probably came from Kaedin Robinson. Catching ten passes in a college game is a feat, especially in the App State offense that prefers to spread the ball around. The fact that he caught ten passes on ten targets is equally impressive. Let’s take this another step. He caught ten passes on ten targets for 112 yards. He averaged 11.2 yards a catch, and his longest catch was just 16 yards. Robinson was doing a lot of dirty work. The fact that his last three catches came on the final drive, and every single one went for a first down, and he got out of bounds all three times to stop the clock? Those three plays took the Mountaineers from their own 19 yard line to the Monroe 37, where the ball was last snapped prior to Michael Hughes’ kick that sailed over the crossbar. Nate Noel continues to be a machine, even with less work. Ahmani Marshall saw his first action of the season, which lessened the load for Noel, yet he still managed to clear the 100 yard mark for the fifth consecutive game.

This Coastal team still has some of the guts of their former squads. You still see some option concepts, but mostly it has been Grayson McCall’s team, and as he goes, so will the Chants. The Georgia State game was an interesting one to watch. The game followed the flow of the series, as the home team never wins. Georgia State jumped on Coastal, and kept their distance. That was the old school way of stealing one from Coastal. Make them play catch up football, which gets them out of their comfort zone. Additionally, the Panthers finished their drives. Six times they entered the red zone, and they scored three touchdowns and three field goals. Coastal only scored on one red zone drive of four. Georgia Southern jumped on Coastal in a different fashion. Coastal trailed by a touchdown at half, but forced a quick punt from Georgia Southern and tied it up. Southern scored the next two times they had the ball, on a field goal, and a pick six of McCall. Suddenly, the Chants were down two scores again, and playing from behind. The final margin was also two scores. App State has yet to jump on anyone early all year long. They have trailed in the first half of every game this season. Something has to give here. The question that might get answered: Which team can finish better? The Chants have played four truly competitive games and have just 21 fourth quarter points to show for it. They have really only had a good second half in their win over Jacksonville State, in which they outlasted their opponent with a couple big plays and a lot of field goals. Going further, excluding the Duquesne game, the Chanticleers have only scored more than 10 points in any quarter once, against Jacksonville State. And why has all of this happened? It’s more than losing a head coach. It comes down to losing more than that. Coastal’s defense has fallen off because their offense has done the same. Those big defensive plays have not been there for the Chanticleers. They have forced just one turnover in the last two games, and managed just four quarterback hurries in the same span. They have accumulated just six sacks all season, and three came in one game. If the Mountaineers can take care of the ball, the Coastal defense will break. The Mountaineers will establish their rhythm early and often with the run game, and the deep shots will be there in the second half.

The First Pick

Beach Birds 27

Mountaineers 38

Appalachian State (2-2) @ UL-Monroe (2-1)

Saturday, September 30th, 2023 8:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN +

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Malone Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf Revolution

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.83

UL-Monroe: 52.73

Home: 2.46

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.64 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -13.5

Series: App State leads 6-1

Last Meeting: App State 59, UL-Monroe 28, October 30, 2021, Boone, NC

Sometimes when you think you do just about everything right, it still doesn’t work out. You can second guess your decisions, but the process was right. The results just did not show. From that point, you can either think about those decisions until it drives you crazy, or you can learn from it and move on. In college football, you have to move on. The time for dwelling in the past only puts you behind the following week. This is a new week, a completely different week. This is where the season truly begins. The Sun Belt title will be decided over the next couple months and there is not one team that appears head and shoulders above the rest. This might be the wildest Sun Belt season since App State joined the conference. The Sun Belt East race will be a gauntlet, but the Mountaineers will begin in the west with the Warhawks.

Monroe has had a rather shaky start to their season. After being throttled by Texas A&M on September 16th, the Warhawks were on bye last week, and needed it badly. Terry Bowden is trying to figure out his quarterback quagmire, having to alternate between Jiya Wright and Hunter Herring in the first three games. First it was Herring, who relieved Wright in a comeback win over Army, and seemingly won the starting job. The following week, Herring took a hit to his midsection and did not finish the game. That led to Jiya Wright starting against the Aggies. Brian Garcia logged a couple snaps, but did not fair much better. Now that we have reached the end of the first month of football, Monroe is still searching for guy that can stay on the field, by way of health or consistency. The Warhawks are averaging just 4.07 yards per passing attempt, which is the lowest figure in the country. They are one of two teams in the nation averaging less than 100 yards passing a game.

Running the football is something the Warhawks have been successful doing. It’s hard to determine whether it is a true strength of their offense, or if its out of necessity. As clearly one of the worst passing offenses to be found, it seems that Monroe’s best bet in the meantime is to shorten games and play ugly. Hunter Smith and Isaiah Woullard eclipsed the 100-yard mark against FCS opponent Lamar, but were contained against Texas A&M and always undersized Army. Smith broke off a 62-yard touchdown run in the win over the Black Knights, but carried the ball just seven times in the game. Considering that 46% of Monroe’s rushing yards this season came against Lamar, allows some doubt to creep back in my mind that this team can run the football. They have had some long runs, but the Warhawks are the eighth worst team in terms of offensive possession, and have the fewest first downs nationwide. The running game has allowed them to put points on the board, but on a drive-by-drive basis, they are not moving the chains enough.

For the first time this season, Joey Aguilar looked human. That could be part Wyoming, and part game plan. However, it’s unlikely that not scoring touchdowns is in the game plan. Aguilar did not connect on a touchdown pass for the first time this season. He did throw an interception, although the timing can hardly be blamed on him. Excluding his appearance against Gardner Webb, Aguilar has completed 54.5% of his passes, and his yardage totals since the North Carolina game have gone down with each game. The zero in the touchdown passes category sticks out. Failing to score a touchdown is why the Mountaineers lost. But it’s not all on Aguilar. The entire offense is responsible. Nate Noel had his worst game in terms of yards per carry, of the season. Only one receiver went over 50 yards. And lest we mention a field goal getting blocked leading to the winning margin with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Busted plays happen, and if your defense only relinquishes one a game, that’s not the end of the world. It becomes bad when the offense cannot find the paint. Regardless, not much more could be asked of by the Mountaineer defense. They limited Wyoming to just 208 yards on 42 plays. Furthermore, the Cowboys converted just three of their twelve third down attempts and were forced to punt eight times. Wyoming threw the ball for just 31 yards in the game, while being sacked three times on just 15 pass attempts. It was a pretty dominant performance. Take away the long touchdown run, and Wyoming averaged just 3.2 yards per play. Yet, it was not enough. Stopping the run is sneaking up as a slight concern, despite the Mountaineers being able to fend off just about every quarterback coming their way. The Apps have picked off six passes on the season and allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw just one touchdown pass, in addition to surrendering just five yards per pass attempt.

Last week went just about according to plan. I was not surprised at how the game played from a strategy perspective. Both teams knew what they were capable of doing on both sides of the ball. However games are won and lost each week on a few plays. Its just that some weeks, those plays are more glaring and obvious then others. Those plays stuck out big time last week. Those wacky plays are hard to predict, and that is what makes this sport so much fun to follow. We do not watch to see the same things over and over, but for the unexpected. So after two weeks off, and it appearing that Monroe will stick with Jiya Wright at quarterback, what can we expect? Anything from Monroe where they don’t run the ball 40-45 times to shorten the game will surprise me. This will be the third straight week the Mountaineers will be playing “one of the worst” offenses in the country. Just about every advanced metric supports that theory. That Warhawks are not very good on first or second down, which leads to being really bad on third downs. They have converted just 11/41 third down attempts. With the clock continuing to run on on first downs achieved by offenses, time of possession it starting to become a bigger indicator of offensive success, or a lack there of. It’s not true in call cases, as quick strike offenses buck this trend. But Monroe is not a quick strike offense. They are not even really an offense that strikes at all. Their high water mark of scoring this year was just 24 points against an FCS team for crying out loud. An FCS team they let sneak back into the game after going up 21-0. Many times, Lamar skill players ran circles around Monroe defenders, yet they tightened up in the red zone, and capitalized on miscues. Expect a bounce back game from the Mountaineers, finishing in the end zone, and keeping Monroe well beyond arm’s reach.

The First Pick

It’s a Bird.. or a plane? 16

Mountaineers 35

Appalachian State (5-5) vs Old Dominion (3-7)

Saturday, November 19th, 2022 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.45

Old Dominion: 56.85

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 13.6 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -15.5

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 31, Old Dominion 7, September 10, 2016, Boone NC

There was once a time when App State was one of the most difficult teams to beat when they visited opposing venues. After three road losses this season, it’s quite clear the Mountaineers are lacking that edge they used to have. To throw salt in the wound, in all three road conference losses, the home team wore black. Almost like they are mocking the Mountaineers. Do those psychological tricks work? Maybe it works for the fans, to give us something to talk about, and be annoyed by. But that is not why this season has unfolded the way it has. There is just a little bit missing this year. It’s difficult to explain. One possession here or there. Perhaps a missed a two point conversion. Or a penalty called incorrectly. But those are just excuses. If you want to win, you have to get on the field, figure it out, and earn it, no matter how it looks. Motivation should not be lacking in these final two games, with senior day on Saturday and your biggest rival next weekend. I have faith. I hope you’ll join me.

Old Dominion started their season with a difficult out of conference slate, facing Virginia Tech, East Carolina and Virginia. Old Dominion participated in Sun Belt September, when multiple teams in the conference knocked off Power 5 schools. But as it has been for those schools, the season did not continue as all had hoped. The Monarchs defeated the Hokies in Week 1, but since then have only managed two wins, at home against three-win Arkansas State, and the true mystery win over Coastal Carolina on the road. Since beating the Chanticleers four weeks ago, ODU has lost four straight conference games. The Monarchs scored 49 points on Coastal in that game, and have scored just 43 points since, with three of those games being at home. Prior to the Coastal game, ODU was averaging 21.6 points per game on offense, blew up for seven touchdowns on Coastal, and have managed just 10.75 points a game since. The Coastal game was the true peak of their season, and since, it has been downhill.

Most of the Monarchs opponents have attacked them with balance, but it seems a lot of the blame can be assigned to their offense, and their inability to run the ball effectively at times. Make no mistake, Old Dominion only has 928 rushing yards through ten games, and that’s pretty bad. Only seven teams in FBS are worse. But figure in that one game, where ODU ran all over Coastal, to the tune of 323 yards, and that number looks even worse. Seven times, the Monarchs have run for 90 yards or less. Let’s toss in the fact that Old Dominion has completed just 56% of their passes as a team. That leads to one of the more appalling and lopsided figures I have seen this season. Old Dominion almost never has the ball. The official ODU site says they average just under 24 minutes of possession a game. The NCAA site says its closer to 25 minutes a game. Discrepancies aside, it is one of the worst figures in the country. Possession is overrated if you can score, but the Monarchs are having a hard time there. For example, Ole Miss is a bottom-ten time of possession team, but they average 36 points a game.

Due to Old Dominion’s inability to move the ball, with only 15.5 first downs per game, their defense has to play a lot. Another major statistical oddity, the Monarch defense has defended 182 more plays than their own offense has run. One hundred eighty-two plays. If ODU is running about 60 plays a game, and their opponents run 18 more plays per game, it’s almost works out to the ODU defense playing three more games than their offense. Wondering why they have been outgained by 110 yards per game? It’s because they have been defending so many plays. And they really have not been bad despite this. Their defense gives up 5.6 yards per play, which is not great, but considering their exposure, it is somewhat fine. And they will give up those yards between the 20-yard lines, but once you get in the red zone, they wont let you score much. On forty red-zone drives, the Monarchs have allowed just eighteen touchdowns and twelve field goals. They have turned away 25% of their opposing offenses red zone drives, which makes them a top-12 red zone defense in the country.

Although the box score suggests the weather was sunny during the game, it was anything but that. It was a cold, wet, misty day in Huntington, WV with two struggling offenses that played down to the weather. The Mountaineers turned in their lowest offensive output of the season, with just 293 total yards. That resulted in two offensive scores in another road game where the Mountaineers trailed from start to finish. The two offensive touchdown drives went a total of 82 yards and took nineteen plays between the drives. App State averaged just 2.9 yards per run, 5.2 yards per pass, and 4 yards per play for the game. The defense created chances for the offense many times throughout the game, yet the offense was unable to capitalize. Eight Marshall drives went for 21 yards or fewer. Without sustained drives this weekend, Old Dominion’s very bad defense becomes just bad, giving up yards in the middle of the field, but holding steady in the red zone. The Mountaineers are due for some big offensive plays to go their way.

There exists a couple different dynamics in play they are hard to measure in a game such as this. One team needs a win more than another. Last week, Old Dominion lost their seventh game of the season, which will exclude them from postseason play. The Monarchs started last season at 1-6, but reeled off five straight wins to gain bowl eligibility, before falling to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. That after the Monarchs did not play a season in 2020 due to the pandemic. The Sun Belt is a different animal week to week compared to Conference USA, where they played previously. Many out of conference, in-state games are set for Old Dominion, that gives them the look of the UL-Monroe of the Sun Belt East. Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina are mainstays on the Monarchs future scheduling. In what appears to be a strong East Division moving forward, they may reconsider playing the Power Five games that have been scheduled. It’s great when you can get an upset, but as App State has also learned this season, the long term effects can have a substantial impact. Old Dominion has two bowl appearances in their FBS history and their region is always hailed as a fertile recruiting ground, yet the year to year results have not been there. As it stands, Old Dominion has three main offensive contributors, and nobody else stands out. Their quarterback Hayden Wolff has played just about every snap. Running back Blake Watson has 130 carries on the year, while the next closest player has thirty carries. Ali Jennings III has hogged 54 receptions and nine touchdowns, while no other receiver has more than 24 catches and two touchdowns. Between Watson and Jennings III, they have scored 15 of the 25 offensive touchdowns this season. Switching back to the other side of the ball, in the last four games, Old Dominion’s opponents have ran at them at a higher rate than at any point this season. The Monarch’s had not defended 50 rushing plays in a game this season until they ran into Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Marshall and James Madison. Old Dominion defended 219 attempts and allowed 927 yards on the ground in those four games, while giving up nine rushing touchdowns. Somehow, Marshall ran for 298 yards and failed to get in the end zone! If the Mountaineers stay with it, they’ll get some yards on the Monarchs and can hopefully find several touchdowns in their home finale.

The First Pick

Royals 16

Mountaineers 30

Appalachian State (5-4) @ Marshall (5-4)

Saturday, November 12th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Joan C Edwards Stadium

Capacity: 38,227

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.88

Marshall: 67.16

Home: 2.09

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .63 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -1

Series: App State leads 15-9

Last Meeting: App State 31, Marshall 30, September 23, 2021, Boone NC

After a trip to the almost beach in Conway, App State will travel the opposite direction to the banks of the Ohio River to face Marshall in a conference game for the first time since 1996. It’s hard to believe it has been over a quarter century since the last such meeting. These teams have played some very memorable games over the years against one another. This series is tied at 6-6 in games played in Huntington, and the last time the Mountaineers visited, Marshall knocked the Mountaineers out of the Top 25 rankings. A previous game in Huntington included the Mountaineers winning a tough game to remain undefeated in their magical 1995 season. Last season, the Mountaineers broke a three game losing streak to Marshall by scoring ten unanswered points in the fourth quarter. After back to back games in this series with a national audience, these teams will clash looking to find their way into bowl eligibility. Both teams need two wins, and neither wants to head into their final two games of the regular season needing to win both contests.

If you thought Coastal and App are turning into a big deal, may I introduce App State and Marshall. This rivalry was a big deal, and will continue to be a big deal. These two teams have traded home wins the past two seasons, and both games were thrilling and tight from start to finish. Saturday looks to be the same, with two teams struggling with inconsistent parts of their team. The App State offense can look unbeatable at times, and at other times, look downright boring. Marshall struggles on offense, but has a stingy defense that keeps them in every game. Both teams gained Power 5 wins earlier in the year, but have not resembled those teams for some time now. Marshall scored a 12-0 victory over Old Dominion last week, that basically sums up their entire season. Plenty of defense, and enough offense. The Herd kicked four field goals in their shutout win while recovering three Old Dominion fumbles. They controlled the game, possessing the ball for 38 minutes, but failed to score touchdowns with five trips in the red zone.

One might look at the Marshall schedule further, and see that they defeated James Madison a few weeks ago. Madison did not have quarterback Todd Centeio that game, and their backup threw four interceptions and was sacked seven times. The Dukes were also 0-17 on third down in that contest. That accounts for two of Marshall’s five wins. The other three were over Norfolk State, Notre Dame and Gardner Webb. One of those three schools does not belong with the other two. That’s right, Marshall beat Notre Dame back in September, the same weekend that App State beat Texas A&M. Two Notre Dame quarterbacks combined to throw three interceptions against the Herd. Hopefully you noticed the trend. In Marshall’s three FBS wins, they have received a lot of help via the turnover. It’s a large part of their success, having gained 21 turnovers all season long, ranking 5th in FBS in that category. But then again, half of those turnovers gained occurred in just three games.

The Herd have used two quarterbacks this season. In the the first six games, Henry Colombi handled most of the snaps. The Texas Tech transfer was largely ineffective as a passer with just six touchdown passes, but was pretty accurate overall, completing well over 70% of his passes. However, he has not played since the Louisiana game, when he completed just nine of his thirteen passes for 68 yards. Redshirt freshman Cam Fancher has been inserted in the starting lineup the last three games, using his feet as a runner to complement the Marshall run game. Fancher has just one touchdown pass and four interceptions since he has been starting, while completing around 50% of his passes. The Herd is averaging 17 points per game since Fancher took over. Let us remove the blowout win over Norfolk State from consideration. Marshall managed 26 points against Notre Dame, 28 against Bowling Green in regulation, 7 against Troy and 28 against Gardner Webb. That comes to nearly 23 points a game. Fancher is guiding the offense to six fewer points per game.

Another frustrating day for the App State ground attack has many asking questions. Seems the successes against Robert Morris and Georgia State are long gone. Coastal was decent on run defense. Marshall is better. Leaps and bounds better. Opponents are only gaining 78.7 yards per game on the ground against the Herd. That’s the third best figure in the country. James Madison is second against the run, and the Mountaineers were limited to 63 yards in that game. This will be a challenge. Can App State find a way to run the ball against Marshall? App State managed just 88 yards on the ground last week, and it was not like they were forced to throw. Maybe the Mountaineers attack the Herd in the air first. Although Marshall does not have unbeatable statistics against the pass, they do have 13 interceptions on the year, yet they allow 11.8 yards per catch. The Herd only gives up 21% of third down conversion on defense, so running the ball seems like a stretch. Maybe the Mountaineers can get the secondary walking backwards on the snap by getting their tight ends and receivers going early.

Touchdowns might become premium this Saturday. Marshall doesn’t give them up and their offense does not score them. A slower pace of offense could favor the Mountaineers, if they can get in gear. It is likely that Marshall will hang around, as they are limited offensively, outside of their ground game. Marshall loves to hand the ball to Khalan Laborn, and for good reason. Laborn has accumulated 1200 yards on the ground in just nine games, and has thirteen touchdowns to his credit. The Herd will go as he does. Marshall has 100 first downs on the ground alone this season. The run game, combined with a stellar defense, is usually one of the oldest recipes in the book for a successful football team. However, Marshall sits here with a 5-4 record, and really has not defeated a good football team since Notre Dame. They are a perplexing team. A lot of the same things can be said about App State at this point. The juice has been missing since mid-September. And although there have been glimpses of success, it has been inconsistent all year long. Both teams are in situation where they are playing to make a bowl game, which is well below the expectations of competing for the East division. This one feels like it has the makings of a classic game in this rivalry, but at the same time, it feels like something weird could happen. You could say the same thing about the 2020 game in Huntington. That was a classic defensive struggle for most of the game until Marshall scored late to put the game out of reach. But this is nearly a completely different Marshall team from two years ago. One that has lost its last two home games, and scoring just thirteen points in each game. You also just don’t know which App State team will show up. You could get the first half team or the second half team. The team that gives up numerous third downs, or the one that makes crucial mistakes at the worst times. The Mountaineers have the talent to play with any team in this league, but for whatever reason it has not clicked this season on a consistent basis. But the Mountaineers are still better than a watered down Louisiana team that Marshall lost to at home. And they are better than James Madison without their quarterback. If the Mountaineers can control the game with a creative game plan, and show Marshall things they have not seen on tape, they should be able to wear down that Herd defense. Additionally, the Mountaineers linebackers need to be ready to tackle well all game long. The first team to 20 points will probably win, and I think Chase Brice should be the difference.

The First Pick

Plunderers 18

Mountaineers 24

Appalachian State (5-3) @ Coastal Carolina (7-1)

Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.65

Coastal Carolina: 67.39

Home: 1.82

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.44 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -3

Series: App State leads 7-1

Last Meeting: App State 30, Coastal Carolina 27, October 20, 2021, Boone NC

This Thursday comes down to an all or nothing situation. A lot of how the remainder of the season is approached will come down to this result. And it works that way for both teams. A loss by either, and they will need some major help to achieve their goals. The Mountaineers have been tested this season. Sometimes by teams they expected, and other times by teams they may not have. Coastal, themselves, has not really had many games where you can say they ran away with one, outside of a midweek contest at the friendliest place to play in the conference. They have allowed 26 or more points to every team they have played at home, including the likes of Gardner-Webb and Army, and those numbers have slowly gone up over the course of the season. Yet, the Chanticleers have managed a sell-out for just about the only team their fans and students really care to beat, while promoting a “black out” at the same time. So instead of promoting their brand, they opt for being something they actually are not. Seems to fit them quite well.

Whether we want to admit it or not, Coastal and App are still a big deal. When the schedule was released, this game week was singled out as a game that will have a major impact on the Sun Belt East Division race. It remains that way as we enter a pivotal ninth game for both teams. Whoever wins will have a major inside line to representing the division in the conference championship game. Coastal made it here by only dropping one game, but it was a noticeable loss, just a couple weeks ago at home to Old Dominion. Coastal can usually find a way to win closely played games, but this one was no such contest. The Chanticleers were dominated from start to finish. The Monarchs never trailed in the game where they ran for 323 yards on the ground on just 32 attempts. In all, Old Dominion averaged 10.8 yards per play, an uncanny figure. Grayson McCall’s 358 passing yards were not enough, and his three touchdown passes were not enough, but it was six sacks by the ODU defense that ruined Coastal’s homecoming weekend.

Usually with the Coastal offense, they go as the way their quarterback goes. Grayson McCall has had another stellar year. But as was mentioned earlier, it’s not all McCall. He’s an integral part of what they do, and they suffer when he isn’t playing. He’s completing close to 69% of his passes on the year, even after completing just 13 of 24 passes last week against Marshall. His lone interception of the year was way back in Week 2 against Gardner-Webb, and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games. Although, McCall has thrown just five touchdown passes in his last three games, he remains on fire in home games, tossing 15 touchdown passes across five contests, and exactly three touchdown passes in each game. This all comes down to which storyline you want to follow. Let’s throw another wrench into this Coastal offense correlation with McCall’s output. In the last three weeks, Coastal has averaged just 24.3 points per game, where in the first five games of the season, the Chants were scoring 36.4 points per game. That’s a decent reduction of points all of a sudden. In two of those three games, wins over Marshall and ULM, both on the road, Coastal recovered two fumbles.

Back to McCall for a brief moment. Of his three years starting for the Chanticleers, he’s evolved into more a passer than a runner. Concerns with keeping him healthy and away from defenders is part of it. It’s a natural progression for just about any quarterback that is mobile or considered a dual threat. McCall ran for 569 yards in 2020, 290 yards in 2021, and 158 yards so far in 2022. McCall has had one game this season, where his rushing statistics, due primarily to lost yardage on sacks, were in the negative. That was the Old Dominion loss. He also had one such game last year, where his rushing totals were in the negative. That was the loss to App State. The Mountaineers collected eight tackles for loss including three sacks in the game. App State also fumbled twice in that game, keeping it closer than it really should have been. The Mountaineers outgained Coastal by 229 yards last year, but these two teams are a lot different in 2022. Coastal had three different backs rush for over 500 yards on the season in 2021, with one back eclipsing 1,000 yards. This season, Coastal has just one back in CJ Beasley who is over 500 yards through eight games, followed by Reese White with 334 yards. Coastal is rushing for 52 less yards per game and 1.5 yards per carry fewer than they did a season ago.

The way this App State offense has played for several weeks leads to plenty of concerns facing a team like Coastal Carolina that likes to start fast. The Mountaineers will have to be ready to go from the first whistle. App State has seen success many different ways over the course of the McCall era. This is a very winnable game if the Mountaineers play their brand and hold onto the football. Their game is a steady dose of the run, mixed with passing elements. The running backs should be fresh, with Nate Noel and Daetrich Harrington combining for a perfect change of pace to Camerun Peoples, who has been difficult to take down this season once he gets a couple steps upfield. Coastal is holding opponents to ten less yards per game on the ground compared to last season. In 2021, they allowed 4.1 per carry, while giving up 4.0 per tote in 2022. However the Mountaineers could be looking to pass on Thursday night, against a secondary that has given up 273 yards per game this season. In addition, Coastal has surrendered 83 more yards per game, and nearly 2 more yards per attempt and completion this season compared to last. And we all remember the Malik Williams game from a season ago, where he shredded the Chant defense for 206 yards. Corey Sutton also had a huge game with 113 yards receiving.

It’s pretty easy to sit back and mention, that to keep from Coastal from winning, you have to do certain things, and it will all work out. What App State did last year was exactly what you do not want to do against a team built like Coastal. The Mountaineers were down 14-0 after the first quarter. Not good. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over twice to Coastal by fumbling. Very bad. Usually, that is not going to work. Luckily, an on-sides kick was miraculously executed to a tee, and the Mountaineers tied the game just about as quickly as they fell behind. An interesting statistic to note in that game, Coastal ran just 52 offensive plays, yet time of possession was fairly even. Converting just three of nine third down conversions kept the Chants off the field for the most part. So, all the things the Mountaineers could not afford to do, they did, and still were able to amass 575 yards offense. And now, App State will have their chance at a defense, that is arguably worse than they were a season ago. Ranked 98th overall, and 113th in passing yards, Coastal has given up yards this season, and because of it, are allowing nearly six more points a game on defense. Yet, Chase Brice and the Mountaineers will be playing in just their third road game of the season, where Brice has averaged about 265 yards per game on the road, and has only been sacked three times. Those two games in Texas might not provide enough of a sample size to truly represent what could happen after a bus ride to Conway. Maybe all this comes down to App State running the football. The Mountaineers ran for 204 yards back in 2020, but did not adjust their game plan in the second half. Last year, the Mountaineers raced for 228 yards on the ground. In both situations, it involved slow steady attacks, to keep the ball out of the hands of the Coastal offense. The longer the Coastal defense remains on the field, the better for App State. No team ever wants to go down 14 points to start a game, but the Mountaineers pulled it off last year, and then again this season against Georgia State. In both scenarios, the Mountaineers never panicked, even if they had to adjust their plan on the fly, and it worked out. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Mountaineers, but there are just as many reasons to doubt a Coastal team that allowed teams like Army and Gardner Webb to hang around. The best win either of those two have is probably UL-Monroe. In the Georgia Southern game, neither defense could stop the other. That one came down to who had the ball last. The Chants offense carried them early on, and they are the reason they win, but that defense just has way too many issues giving up yards, which will lead to their demise on Thursday night.

The First Pick

Chaucers Chickens 20

Mountaineers 28

Appalachian State (1-1) vs Troy (1-1)

Saturday, September 17th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 76.26

Troy: 59.35

Home: 2.42

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.33 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -12.5

Series: App State leads 7-2

Last Meeting: App State 45, Troy 7 November 20, 2021, Troy, AL

Caught your breath yet? Apparently, its going to be a wild season in college football. The Mountaineers have never had two such opponents to start an FBS season, and both games delivered to the fullest extent. Starting the season at 1-1, was pretty likely, but if you are going to win one of these games, beating the team with a number beside their name was probably best. It brings the higher shock value. It also helps when you have done it before and the rest of the conference joins the party. So much so, that the elite television college football pregame show decided to alter its plans and make a trip up the mountain. It will be the fourth ever visit by College Gameday to the state of North Carolina. With the win, and the attention, come distractions. Suddenly your normal week of work is interrupted by additional interview requests and the like. This will all wash away one day, and enjoying those moments are precious. But the task at hand is a conference opponent, and the outcome is what this team plays for. There were no rings or trophies handed out last week. That time will come later. The present time is all about Troy, and going 1-0 this week.

The Trojans will head to Boone with a new head coach in Jon Sumrall, who is in his first year as a head coach. He is an Alabama native and previously spent time on Troy’s staff from 2015-2017. Sumrall’s background is on the defensive side of the ball, beginning where he played inside linebacker at Kentucky, and throughout his other coaching stops at San Diego, Tulane, and Ole Miss. Sumrall was the co-defensive coordinator at Kentucky in 2021. He was supposedly a candidate when Chip Lindsey was hired in 2019, and the Trojans went back to the drawing board after just three seasons. The results for Troy have gone just about as expected at this point in the season. They lost to Ole Miss 28-10 and defeated Alabama A&M 38-17. You have to be careful when looking at their team statistics thus far. It appears they struggle to run the ball, but they have given up six sacks in these two games. Those sacks count as negative rushing yards against their team total. When taking those numbers out, its actually worse. We’ll dig a little more on that later, but consider, their longest running play of the season is just 14 yards.

Troy and App State faced off late last year, and it feels like these teams just played. That game was a dominating Mountaineer win. App State led 10-7 at halftime, but turned it on in the second half with five touchdowns and never looked back. Troy managed just six first downs in the game, and the Mountaineers limited Troy to just 33 rushing yards. The Trojans were 5-4 after nine games last year, and had an outside chance of making a bowl game, but they dropped their last three games to Louisiana, App State and Georgia State. Surprisingly, Troy retained a lot of their players from last season. Star linebacker Carlton Martial returned for his fifth year coming off three straight years as an All-Sun Belt first team performer. Gunnar Watson is also back at quarterback, which might be the biggest surprise of all. Watson is a fifth year junior, who is in his third year as a starter. Running backs DK Bllingsley, Kimani Vidal and Jamontez Woods have also returned. Typically with a coaching change you might see a lot of roster turnover, but its interesting that Troy kept a lot of key players around.

As mentioned previously, Troy’s offense appears somewhat one-dimensional after two games. We’ll just focus on the three Trojan running backs who have handled the ball the most. Kimani Vidal has 22 carries for 86 yards (3.9 ypc). Jamontez Woods has 12 carries for 33 yards (2.8 ypc). Finally, DK Billinglsey has carried the ball seven times for 39 yards. The trio combined for 967 yards last year with a good chunk coming from Vidal, but he is off to a slow start. It seems that Troy may want to become a running football team, which is certainly a change from the past few years, but they are having a difficult time adjusting on the offensive line. In the meantime, Gunnar Watson has been slinging the ball over the field in the first two weeks. He has thrown for 626 yards this season, after throwing for just 1,613 yards in eight games in 2021. All of Troy’s touchdowns have came in the air in 2022, with Watson accounting for five of those scoring passes. Backup Jarret Doege threw for the other in cleanup time against Alabama A&M. Already, fourteen players have caught passes from the Troy quarterbacks. The six touchdown passes have been spread across five different pass catchers. Last years leading receiver Tez Johnson has only caught two passes to start the season after catching 67 passes a year ago. Johnson has battled injuries in fall camp.

Games like last Saturday are fun. As a fan watching in person, or time zones away, the longer an underdog sticks around, it becomes more captivating. Your expectations change with each first down. It was a game where you clapped after the first quarter with the game in a scoreless tie. You pace at halftime as it remained tied, and could hardly sit down as the score remained knotted up after three quarters. Hanging around is easy, but hanging on is the hard part. The win over Texas A&M, excuse me, then #6 ranked Texas A&M may go down as the gutsiest win in school history. At no point was it pretty. It was calculated domination. A box score to remember for a lack of production. A defense that responded to a less than stellar effort by creating just enough havoc in the form of turnovers and sacks. Maybe the best game of keep away ever played. The Mountaineers held the ball for 9 minutes or more in each quarter. The Aggies had the ball on offense three times in the second half, and their possessions resulted in a fumble, punt and missed field goal. Ultimately, the game was decided by an eighteen play drive by the Mountaineers, that consumed more precious clock than yards, and ended with a field goal made by a kicker who had yet to make one.

Last week is the past. It’s all for nothing if the Mountaineers do not take care of business this week. Notably, the vibe on campus has been different since Saturday. Everyone knows something is coming that usually isn’t here and may never come back. The events of fifteen years ago carried a program into FBS football, and although the Texas A&M win might not have the same effect, the aftershocks will be felt for a significant amount of time. In the meantime, a ring game is in front of us. Troy players have made it clear in media appearances of their intent to beat App State. Troy has sustained some injuries to key defensive players and they hope to have them back for this game. The Mountaineers have also had some injuries, but expect everyone to be available on Saturday as well. App State smothered Troy last year in the second half. The time of possession battle was won by the Mountaineers significantly, even more than it was last week against Texas A&M. Gunnar Watson could only manage 109 passing yards against the Mountaineers, while throwing an interception. It was another example of the opposing team simply not having the ball and not finding a rhythm. Again, the Troy ground attack accumulated 33 net yards. They were never in it. Troy has not shown it has improved much offensively. This years passing figures are due to game script and opponent. They trailed Ole Miss 21-3 at the half and threw the ball 47 times. After leading 7-3 at halftime to Alabama A&M, Troy decided to distance themselves, and scored three touchdowns in the third quarter, almost exclusively in the air. Even with the game in hand, Troy continued to throw the ball with Jarret Doege. Without a running game, Troy could struggle, considering they have converted just 35% of their third downs in their first two games and converting just three of seven red zone drives into touchdowns. Additionally, with five turnovers already on offense, and five rushing touchdowns allowed on defense, Troy is going to need to play much better than they have thus far to hang. I’ll take the Mountaineers in a rather low scoring affair.

The First Pick

Boys of Troy 14

Mountaineers 31