Appalachian Football vs North Texas (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs North Texas (4-5, 3-4 CUSA)

Monday, December 21st, 2020 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: 97.3 FM North Wilkesboro, 600 AM Winston-Salem, 1270 AM Charlotte, 1450 AM Hendersonville, Sirius XM 80, TuneIn App

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.19

North Texas: 54.14

Home: n/a

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.05 points

Line: App State -19.0

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

It has taken a little longer than usual, but we have made it to the end of another college football season. This season was long haul for a lot of people involved. Many were responsible for making sure we could be entertained with this game in the safest way possible. In as much as we all want a break from all the stress, there are others who do not want it to end for plenty of reasons. We get to this point of the season annually. The mixed of emotions of the season being over for fans, but careers over for good, for a lot of great players. We are all fortunate that Zac Thomas, Thomas Hennigan, and Malik Williams’ last game was in 2020, and not last year. It’s likely, for one last time we get to cheer for some players who first made memories in Happy Valley, and then New Orleans twice with a stop in Chapel Hill in between. Its surreal that this journey ends just miles from the Grand Strand, where many were heartbroken just weeks ago. For one last time, give your all in 2020, and hope we do not have to do it like this, ever again.

For the third straight season, the Mountaineers are matched up against an opponent from Conference USA in their bowl game. Middle Tennessee and Alabama-Birmingham were dismissed in New Orleans and now comes North Texas. This will be App State’s third Conference USA opponent in 2020, all with green as their primary color. North Texas lost to UNC-Charlotte by a score of 49-21, and did not play Marshall. Now, App played Charlotte a long time ago. Comparing those games are impossible. Some players that played in those games in September, are not playing now. But that game, in a nutshell can be one that describes the North Texas season. They lost by four scores. In their other four losses, the Mean Green lost by ten points or more in each game. Twice they lost by thirty points. The losses gut ugly fast. The wins, became less impressive as the season wore on. Four wins total, with one over relative FCS newcomer Houston Baptist. The remaining three wins were over Middle Tennessee, Rice and UTEP, who combined for an 8-14 record.

Although quality wins are lacking for the Mean Green, their offense does not lack for firepower. A lot of that offense was due to Jaelon Darden, who decided to not play in the bowl game in order to prepare for the NFL draft. Darden was impressive in nine games, catching 74 passes for 1,190 yard and 19 touchdowns. He will be missed by North Texas. The next best receiver had 25 catches for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s a major drop off. Still, this offense averaged 515 yards per game, which was seventh nationally. The Mean Green passed for 284 yards per game, which was 22nd in the country, and 230 yards a game on the ground, which is 13th across the land. Darden may have been a large piece of that, but he was not everything. But the problem for North Texas is a very bad defense. How bad? How about 126th out of 127 teams bad. UL-Monroe went 0-10 this year, and still have gave up 45 fewer yards per game than did North Texas.

For most of the season, North Texas used has used two quarterbacks and they could not be more different. Austin Aune has played in eight games and started three. Aune is a redshirt sophomore, but was born in 1993. He was a second round draft pick by the New York Yankees out of high school. He enrolled at North Texas in 2018 and sat out after transferring from Arkansas. Aune had a career high five touchdown passes in the most recent win over UTEP. Jason Bean has played in seven games, starting in six of them. He’s also a redshirt sophomore, but can not rent a car like his teammate. The simple comparison is that Aune is the passing quarterback and Bean is the runner. However, both share similar statistics as far as touchdown-interception ratio and completion percentage. The ball comes off of Aune’s arm effortlessly, as one would expect from a former minor league outfielder. Bean is a former high school track star and has piled up 336 yards rushing and 7.8 yards per carry on the season.

For much of last week, it looked like App State might fall again to their bitter hated rival, but the Mountaineer defense stood tall late and gave Nate Noel and Jalen Virgil the opportunity to make plays. It was a satisfying, chippy win, regardless of how it unfolded. Zac Thomas bounced back from a pick-six to throw touchdown passes to Virgil and Thomas Hennigan. App State scored twenty-seven second half points and rallied from 14-0 deficit. Winning is hard enough, and its more difficult to win in Statesboro. It may have acted as a springboard into the bowl game, where the Mountaineers landed a geographically friendly bowl location, even if the start time is undesirable. Still, the Mountaineers might have one of the better crowds it will have all season rooting them on. Some streaks have been broken this season, but one that remains is an unblemished mark in bowl games. Finishing the season with a win, and more hardware, is the goal this week.

Just like how last weekend was odd in that App State and Georgia Southern were playing on a Saturday, this will be the first time in six appearances that App State will play its bowl game on a non-Saturday. Not just any day either, a Monday afternoon. Luckily, the date only has an effect on the fans, and typically not the players and coaches. However this is an inaugural bowl game, in a year unlike any other, so why not Monday afternoon football? Unfortunately, the last time the Mountaineers played in this stadium, they lost the chance to achieve one of their goals. Yet, an opportunity to continue an unprecedented streak still exists. North Texas will be playing in their eleventh NCAA-sanctioned bowl game in program history. They have just managed two wins. This will be the fourth time that Seth Littrell is taking the Mean Green to a bowl game and they have yet to win one yet. Their last two losses were exceptionally lopsided, losing to Troy 50-30, and by thirty-nine points to Utah State last year. A trend has seemed to develop. North Texas can score some points sometimes, and occasionally, when they do not score, they get beat pretty bad. Seems simple enough. App State is by far the best defense that North Texas will have played this season. Rice played the Mean Green close, but eventually fell 27-17 after blowing a 10-0 lead on the road. Rice might be the next best defense that North Texas played, and that is asking a lot. Never thought 2020 would bring Rice football to this corner of the internet. North Texas is going to have to do better than their season average of allowing 4.5 touchdowns per game in order to give themselves a chance to win. App State has scored 31 points or more in every bowl game in their history, while allowing just 11.33 points per game in their last three bowls. It’s a mismatch on paper, and that should carry over to the scoreboard on Monday afternoon.

The First Pick

Green with Envy 20

Mountaineers 41

Appalachian Football vs Georgia Southern

Appalachian State (7-3, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs Georgia Southern (7-4, 4-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, December 23th, 2020 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Paulson Stadium

Capacity: 25,000

Surface: Shaw Legion 41 synthetic turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.53

Georgia Southern: 65.35

Home: 0.84

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.34 points

Line: App State -9.5

Series: App State leads 18-15-1

Last Meeting: Georgia Southern 24, App State 21, Boone, NC October 31, 2019

Another week has passed and this football season, now nearly halfway through December is still in its regular season. Two rivals will tee it up in a game that is for nothing but bragging rights and pride. Maybe that is a good way to end the oddest college football season of our time. Nothing else to think about besides beating the other guys. The same guys who have stolen the last two games due to unforeseen circumstances. The guys who have who ripped the national ranking right out from under us for consecutive seasons. Both teams are limping to the finish for several reasons but it’s going to take more than a couple bumps and bruises to keep any athlete off the field for an App-Southern game. Players have been chirping off to the media all week leading up to this installment, and certainly that will carry over between the lines. A classic game could be in the making. Tune in either way because what is supposed to happen in this series, rarely does.

Way back before we had any inclination how wild this college football season was going to be, Georgia Southern and App State had both scheduled Campbell as one of their opening games after a series of cancellations. For the Eagles, it was their opener, played on September 12th. App State played the Camels two weeks later. Campbell gave the Eagles a lot of problems, but it was a game that Southern won 27-26 after being down thirty-three players for “various reasons”. Southern led that game for six minutes and forty-two seconds. Close games eventually became the prevailing theme for the Eagles’ season. Eight games have been decided by one score or less. The games that were more lopsided included a two touchdown loss to Coastal Carolina, and more one-sided wins over UMass (41-0) and Florida Atlantic, (20-3) which was played last week. That broke a two game losing streak that included losses to Army by one and Georgia State by six. It’s been an up and down season for Southern, and with each passing game, most became more confused as to what this Eagle team was made of.

For a good majority of the season, Georgia Southern’s offense went through Shai Werts, JD King, and Wesley Kennedy III. Werts is the fourth-year starting quarterback that is the heart and soul of the Eagle squad. In the game against Army, a one point loss, Werts injured his right throwing shoulder and did not finish the game. Werts went on to play against Georgia State, but split time with redshirt sophomore Justin Tomlin. Werts ran the ball eleven times in that game and completed four of his seven passes. However, it was Tomlin who took all the snaps last week against Florida Atlantic while Werts rested. Coach Chad Lunsford has been careful with his comments about Werts’ health, first saying he maybe should have not played Werts against Georgia State, and early this week saying Werts may not play on Saturday. Read into that what you will, but expect to see him suited up. JD King played only seven games before he was lost for the season due to an injury, yet he still remains second on the team in rushing this season. Wesley Kennedy III played in eight games and ran for 447 yards and six touchdowns before he was pinched by local law enforcement for various drug and weapons charges.

The names change, and sometimes they do not, but Georgia Southern remains the same. They continue to rely on a ground attack that they hope leads to copious amounts of possession that leads to a fresh defense that can take advantage of teams that have to get out of their typical comfort zone on offense. That recipe has has worked well for a really long time and despite being without a super explosive offense, the Eagles are possessing the ball for nearly 34 minutes a game this season. However, Southern is only scoring 26.36 points a game this year, which is down from 2019 when they scored 28.15 a contest. In 2018, the Eagles averaged just over 30 points per game. Goes to show, you can be a team with a bunch of returners, but be caught by a pandemic and injury issues and everything kind of slides downhill. Sounds a little bit like a team we know. But, what has kept Southern’s head above the ditch water is a defense that is more than holding its own. Given the offensive struggles, the Eagle defense is allowing just 21.2 points per game, the fewest rushing yards and yards per carry in the conference and are second in the conference with 13 interceptions.

The Mountaineers did just about everything they were supposed to do last weekend. They had better offense, better defense, time of possession and so on. The problem is that they gave Louisiana too many short fields. After everything that happened, both coaches made critical mistakes at important times of the game. And even as poorly as the Mountaineers played at those important moments, they were still in the game in the fourth quarter. The theme in the three losses have been turnovers, and lack of second half scoring. Usually that goes hand in hand. This weekend, App State is going to have to figure out how to come out of the locker room and execute like they typically do in the first half. The third quarter is the one where App State has scored the fewest all season long, and allowed the most, yet still holding an eleven point advantage over the course of the season. The Mountaineers have been strong out of the gates this season, and that will be the key to beating Georgia Southern. Starting fast and keeping the Eagles out of their comfort zone on offense.

The matchup this weekend will be the first of its kind for App State and Georgia Southern in Sun Belt and FBS play. We are playing on a Saturday. It’s the day these games are supposed to be played. The hard part will be keeping it that way going forward. The Sun Belt has not experienced its best rivalry on the weekend, and its long overdue. The last time App and Southern played on a Saturday was in 2013, when App State dismantled Southern by a score of 38-14. That was one of the few bright spots for the Mountaineers that season. Without question, a win by either side will provide a bright spot for both programs in 2020, a year that many want to put behind them. A Southern win would make it the third time in this rivalry’s history that the Eagles have won three games in a row. The last time it occurred was when App State lost four games consecutively across the 2000-2002 seasons. App and Southern met in the playoffs in 2001. One part of this game that will be similar, is that it will be played in the evening, with a sunset kickoff that will resemble the primetime kickoff that was scheduled before the game was postponed back in October. On to the game. It was surprising to see Southern let go of their offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse of two plus years, but the lack of points that was referenced above is probably the reason. If anything, DeBesse was in a no-win spot in Statesboro as the natives get restless really quickly. DeBesse was relieved after not being able to hold onto an eleven point fourth quarter lead in their loss to Georgia State. Notice how the offensive coordinator got fired, and not a defensive coach. Regardless, Southern got a 20-3 win last week, but only one offensive touchdown was scored in that win. Seems the struggles will continue for Southern as they enter their last game of the regular season. For App State, they have what it takes to win this game, the question is just which App State team shows up. The Mountaineers offense has struggled against above average defenses all season, and that is exactly how one should categorize Southern. They are good enough to win too, but not good enough to maintain separation from App State without some help. Both defenses are good enough to keep this game in the twenties, and the team with the fewest turnovers will win.

The First Pick

The Stink 20

Mountaineers 24

Appalachian Football vs #21 Louisiana

Appalachian State (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt) vs Louisiana (8-1, 6-1 Sun Belt)

Friday, December 4th, 2020 8:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 31,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 76.30

Louisiana: 76.59

Home: 1.03

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 0.74 points

Line: App State -2.5

Series: App State leads 8-0

Last Meeting: App State 45, Louisiana 38, Boone, NC December 7, 2019

It’s finally Louisiana week…. again. We had all hoped to do this for the third straight season, but this year is not the same as any other. So we settle to makeup a postponed game that was scheduled to have occurred two months ago. Although a trophy is not on the line in this edition, bragging rights remain like they always do. Louisiana is tired of it. They are tired of looking at 0-8, tired of hearing about it, and they want to do something about it. On the other sideline, a team wants to continue that streak and send out a fantastic group of seniors, if its their last game, out on the right note. Louisiana certainly does not want to think about a loss for two weeks before having to travel back to the east coast to play another conference championship game on the road. And the Mountaineers want to strive for another ten win season before playing their most hated rivals in the regular season finale. Both teams have reasons to look ahead, but don’t expect this game to lose one bit of luster because a trophy is nowhere to be seen.

The Ragin Cajuns win over then-ranked #23, now-ranked #12 Iowa State has been viewed positively, then negatively, and now again in a more beneficial light. Fact is, when that game was played in mid-September, it was the opening game for both teams, and it’s much easier to sneak up on a Power Five opponent fresh out of the gates. There is no doubt that Iowa State is a good team, probably a better team than they were nearly three months ago, but it’s hard to put much stock into a team you beat three months ago during a pandemic. Nonetheless, Louisiana beat Iowa State, and then proceeded to play four games that were decided by one possession, three in conference, and one out of conference. The Cajuns needed overtime to beat Georgia State, a 53-yard field goal as time expired to defeat Georgia Southern at home, lost to Coastal on a late field goal at home, and then edged UAB with a fourth quarter touchdown to win. The Cajuns trailed UAB after every quarter of that game, except the one that mattered, the fourth. Its arguable that every single one of those games could have had a different result. In the last month, the Cajuns have defeated Texas State, Arkansas State, South Alabama and UL-Monroe. Neither of those teams are exactly lighting the world on fire, as South Alabama has the best record at 4-6 overall. That’s the Sun Belt West for you.

Louisiana quarterback Levi Lewis will be playing his sixth game in his career against App State on Friday night. It might not be his last one, as the senior announced his intentions to return to school in 2021, taking advantage of an NCAA rule. Lewis saw mop up time in the 2017 game in which App blistered that Cajuns for a 63-14 win. Like every other Cajun footballer, Lewis has never defeated App State. What has been asked of him in 2020, is slightly different than years past. The Cajuns have typically relied on a dominant running game, which has only helped Lewis throughout most of his career, but that ground attack has not been as fruitful. Lewis is throwing for about seven more yards per game in 2020 than 2019, and that’s really not a big deal one way or the other. However, his wide receivers have tailed off as well. Lewis had only thrown seven interceptions in his career in thirty-two games coming into 2020, but has thrown seven picks in just nine games this season. His accuracy has dropped a couple percentage points and so has his touchdown passes per game. In addition, Lewis is running the ball more than he has in the previous two seasons. which includes five rushing touchdowns.

These names are all so familiar. Elijah Mitchell is coming off back to back seasons with 1,100+ rushing yards and double digit touchdowns. Mitchell had four 100+ yard rushing games in 2018, five such games in 2019, but has only run for 100+ yards once in 2020. For his career, Mitchell has averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the ground, but that number is reduced to 4.7 yards per carry when you single out his performances against App State. He has never hit 100 yards in a game against the Mountaineers, but has come close. App State has contained him before and must do so again on Saturday. Trey Ragas and Mitchell look like nearly the same guy on the stat sheet, but they are different backs. Ragas is listed an inch shorter and about twelve pounds heavier than Mitchell. Ragas scored three of his seven touchdowns against Texas State, which also featured his only 100-yard rushing performance of the season. Ragas started the season slow, but has produced lines of 131-75-78-95 in the last four games. That is good for right at 95 yards average per game as the season closes.

If kickoff times are any indication of how well App plays, the night time has been the right time. Earlier this season, the Mountaineers throttled Arkansas State on a weeknight with 45 offensive points. Last week, App State added 47 more points in another game that was played mostly under the lights. And then comes the 8:30pm start, that will only bring more of a Boone chill to the night. It’s not the story, but it is a variable the Cajuns have to account for. Another would be a resurgent offense that put on a decent display last week. The first three offensive scores of the game were made by App State playmakers in Camerun Peoples, Malik Williams and Thomas Hennigan. Peoples finished with 95 yards rushing after a 63-yard touchdown run. Williams caught seven passes for 113 yards and a score, and Hennigan had one of his more active games in a quite a while since nursing a leg injury, with six receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. Zac Thomas threw four touchdown passes on a pretty flawless night to four different receivers.

Besides the obvious lopsided nature to this series, it has always been intriguing how it has unfolded. The first four installments were surprising, yet validating wins by App State that proved to themselves and others they could compete in FBS football. The first game was the closest, a dominating 19 point win in Lafayette. Then App won by 21 points, 24 points and then 49 points. When Billy Napier was hired, things quickly changed. Since 2018, all four games have been decided by 11 points or fewer. Last year’s Sun Belt Championship game was a cakewalk of sorts for App State, but Napier kept them fighting until the bitter end. This year, a Sun Belt title will not be on the line, but you would expect a similar game to unfold as we have seen in three of the last four games. Both teams have taken a small step back on offense in 2020, but that is mainly because both teams were exceptionally good last season. The Cajuns averaged 257 yards a game last year on the ground while also scoring close to 38 points per game. Those numbers have decreased to 217 yards rushing a game and 35 points per game. The rushing drop off is most significant while the 2020 points average is buoyed by a 70-point outburst last week. Remove that game, and the Cajuns have scored just under 31 points per contest. That’s nearly a whole touchdown less from one year to the next. The reason is the Cajuns do not have a game changing wide receiver. They have spread the ball around a lot this season, as three pass catchers have eclipsed just 300 yards receiving on the season. It’s been more of a plodding offense compared to 2019. More plays run, but less points scored. The 2019 Cajuns possessed the ball for 30:24 a game and converted close to 48% of their third downs. In 2020, the Cajuns have lost nearly two minutes a game of possession, down to 28:28 on average, and converted just over 42% of their third downs. Likewise, App State has not been as dominant, but the falloff has not been as severe as it has for Louisiana. This one comes down to quarterbacks. We have veteran players who have played in a lot of big games, but one has been more accomplished, and that’s the difference. Zac Thomas has not had big passing yard games against Louisiana in the past, but he hasn’t needed it. In 2018, Thomas ran 14 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns in two games, and last season, backed it up with 28 carries for 88 yards and two more scores in two games. Levi Lewis can run too, but he won’t be asked to carry it like Thomas will.

The First Pick

LaLa 24

Mountaineers 28

Appalachian Football vs Troy

Appalachian State (6-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) vs Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 28th, 2020 8pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 31,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.66

Troy: 61.60

Home: 0.77

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.83 points

Line: App State -14.5

Series: App State leads 5-2

Last Meeting: App State 48, Troy 13, Troy, AL November 29, 2019

Last week has been beat to death. Coaches move on to greener pastures, players get injured, and eventually the shoe doesn’t fit like it used to. That’s the price of success, and App State might be paying their dues a little. The offense looked great in the first half. They brought tempo, and took the fight right to Coastal. But one team adjusted better than the other, and by the time the fourth quarter came around, one was hanging on, and the other, knocking on the door. It was a fun college football game to watch. Sometimes our team is going to end up on the wrong end of that score. It has not happened a lot, and that is why it can be frustrating and disappointing. The good thing, is that App State gets another chance to show everyone that the best is yet to come. This year’s version is not the 2019 team, or the 2018 team, or the 2005 team. They are their own version of themselves, and that story will get written one day once its all over in this crazy season of college athletics. Eventually, a lot of these upperclassmen will stop playing football, and what they will remember the most will not always come down to rings and trophies, but to how they responded to adversity, and showed the next team how to compete the right way. That lesson will last longer than any play they may have not made.

Troy has played seven opponents in eight games this season. Yes, you read that right. The Trojans opened the season with a 47-14 throttling of Middle Tennessee. Last week, Troy fell to the Blue Raiders by three points at home by a score of 20-17. This was after Troy and Coastal’s game was postponed the week before. So what happened between September 19th and November 21st that changed for Troy? First of all, starting quarterback Gunnar Watson was sidelined after being injured in the Georgia State game on October 24th. Secondly, Troy began to struggle running the ball, having not eclipsed 100 yards rushing as a team in the last four games. Third, Troy’s defense started to crack, allowing big rushing yard totals to opponents such as Georgia State (210), Georgia Southern (326), and Middle Tennesee (186). Even Arkansas State ran for 108 yards against Troy, which is pretty out of character for the Red Wolves.

When Gunnar Watson went out with injury, Junior Jacob Free was more than capable of filling in. Despite not playing the entire game against Georgia State, Free stepped in and threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns, but also added a couple interceptions. Free added 419 passing yards against Arkansas State, but was limited by Georgia Southern to just 201 yards and two interceptions. While starting for Watson, Free and the Trojans were 1-2, but Free succumbed to eight sacks in 2+ games. Watson did not fare much better. A true pocket passer, Watson has been sacked twelve times in his six games, with half of those coming at the hands of Middle Tennessee. Watson has three games with over 300 yards passing, and did all of that against FCS Eastern Kentucky, three-win Middle Tennessee and now two-win Texas State. Watson leads Troy in a high-volume, high-percentage passing attack that values getting the ball out quickly to its receivers. Watson leads in the conference in passing yards per game and completion percentage,

Four different Troy pass catchers are in the top twenty in conference in yards per game and the same four are in the top seventeen in receptions a game. Kaylon Geiger is the leader of the group with 45 catches for 577 yards and one score. Geiger feasted on the lesser teams on the Troy schedule, posting 100 yards and at least seven interceptions against EKU, Texas State and Arkansas State. Geiger’s pace has slowed in the last two games despite catching ten passes against Middle and Georgia Southern, but has only covered eighty-three yards, for just an 8.3 yard per catch average. Geiger was up over fourteen yards per catch in the previous four games. Reggie Todd and Khalil McClain are the touchdown scorers for Troy at receiver. Their statistics are virtually identical, with having caught five scores on the season. Todd is 6’5, 205 pound senior and his five scores all came against the weaker, middle four teams of the Troy schedule (EKU, Tex State, Ga State, Ark State). Todd has just five catches for thirty-eight yards the last two weeks. McClain scored three of his five touchdowns against Middle Tennessee. Another tall receiver, McClain had a season high ninety-two yards last week.

Let’s focus on what App State did well last week. Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel look like they could be a formidable one-two punch out of the backfield, with their completely different styles, but similar results. App State just needs to find the right time to mix in Noel early, while also not overexerting Peoples. App must also figure out a way to continue pushing the ball down the field. Malik Williams has been fortunate to haul in long completions in each of the last two games, but the intermediate throws could increase. The defense did all they could last weekend until the dam finally broke. Outside of two big plays, the defense played extremely well. Troy will no doubt look to strike early on their opening drive just how Arkansas State and Coastal did.

For the first time in a very long time, App State will host a Saturday night game at Kidd Brewer Stadium. In the past, these games were reserved for earlier in the season, when teams were looking for relief from heat. But this Saturday, not only is it a late kickoff, it is coming with winter knocking on the door. Troy is lucky enough to get a game in back to back trips to Boone that will feature some cooler weather than what south-central Alabama usually deals with. That sounds like a game that is made for defense. Both Troy and App State feature some of the best linebackers in the conference. Carlton Martial has 66 tackles, and 7.5 for loss as one of the premier downhill linebackers in the league. Trey Cobb And D’Marco Jackson seem to be trading the App State tackle lead from one week to the next. Both lead the team with 56 tackles on the season. With Troy only allowing 24.3 points per game, and App State being even stingier at 19 points allowed, we all could be in for another close Troy-App State classic. Outside a couple App State blowouts, the games between these two have been close battles throughout the years. Troy presents as a team very similar to Arkansas State, but with much better defense, and an offense that might not be as good as the Red Wolves. However, their lack of a running game is concerning. The Trojans are averaging just 2.54 yards per carry on the ground in the last four games and have converted just seven red zone touchdowns in their last seventeen red zone drives. App State has had their own struggles scoring points, but Troy has allowed opposing quarterback to complete two-thirds of their passes all season long. The Mountaineers will bounce back on Saturday with a two score win.

The First Pick

T-roy 20

Mountaineers 31

Appalachian Football @ #15 Coastal Carolina

Appalachian State (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) vs Coastal Carolina (7-0, 5-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 21st, 2020 Noon EST

TV/Video: ESPN2

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.85

Coastal Carolina: 71.50

Home: 1.73

Coastal Carolina is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 0.38 points

Line: Coastal Carolina -5.5

Series: App State leads 6-0

Last Meeting: App State 56, Coastal Carolina 37, Boone, NC September 28, 2019

In the past, a trip to the beach was a reason to celebrate. Whether it be a family vacation, a senior week or a church youth group trip. You went to celebrate something as a reward for working hard on a project, a semester of school or to just get away from the weekly grind and recharge your batteries for a couple days. That was what some App State fans got to enjoy on their “beach trip” in 2018. Fast forward two years and the vacation has quickly turned into a business trip. Not many saw this coming. Coastal has become the darling of America in an otherwise gloomy time of our nation’s history. Quickly their antics and celebrations became something to help people forget what ails them. But, eventually the fun ends. The ferris wheel stops turning, the buffet runs out of popcorn shrimp, and the 18th hole looms large in the distance. The credit card bill comes at the end of the month and its time to pay for all the fun you have had for the last few weeks. Hopefully, you didn’t exceed your limit.

The upstart Chanticleers have taken advantage of a schedule that has really worked out for them. Now look, winning your first seven games is not easy task, and it’s not all luck. They edged Kansas for the second straight year, and abused Campbell early on. Then came four Sun Belt games against teams that Coastal had lost to the previous year. In three of the four losses in 2019, the Chanticleers were competitive, losing to Georgia State by ten points, three points to Georgia Southern in overtime, and by one point to Arkansas State. They turned those three close losses into dominating, multiple score wins over those three schools. The fourth was Louisiana. After the Cajuns throttled Coastal 48-7 in 2019, revenge was served with Coastal winning by a field goal in the closing seconds. Oddly enough, the Chants are 2-1 all time against Louisiana, with both wins coming in Lafayette. As you can see, this has been a slow and steady climb for Coastal, not just an overnight Cinderalla story.

As the Chanticleers were growing last year as a team, their results were misleading. It was pretty evident at that time that Coastal was still missing a piece here and there. While App State fans chalked up a 56-37 shootout last season to a semi-new coaching staff that was feeling out their players, and an odd weather delay in Boone, Coastal’s quarterback of the future was watching from the sidelines and waiting his turn. That has become the big difference in the 5-7 season in 2019 and a 7-0 record this year. Grayson McCall has played more like a veteran quarterback than a redshirt freshman. McCall has 16 touchdown passes to his name while just throwing one interception. That’s impressive at any level of football for any snapshot of a season. McCall has added four more scores on the ground and is a true dual threat quarterback. He’s thrown exactly twenty-four passes in the last three games in which he appeared, which shows that Coastal has been able to do exactly what they want to on offense.

As much love as the Coastal defense deserves, its the offense that really should get all the credit. Despite the triple-option base, the Chants pass more than any option based attack. It’s just that many times, the first option can be a pass, or the third option could be a pass. It requires discipline to run and to defend. When run well, the defense becomes the benefactor because they are never on the field. Thus, the onus for Coastal is to remain efficient passing the ball on Saturday. Players like Jaivon Heiligh has to continue to be someone that be counted on. Heiligh has been consistent all year, but is also on a hot streak, with at least five catches in each of his last five games, and his yardage totals look like this: 93-108-107-81-95. He’s also scored touchdowns in five of seven games played. CJ Marable has really emerged in the passing game as well. More commonly known for running the ball, Marable has been happened to quietly sneak out of the backfield, as he is second on the team with twenty receptions on the season. He has also scored via the pass similarly as Heiligh, with five straight games with a receiving touchdown. He does not got the volume of his teammate, but he makes the most of his chances.

For a good part of last Saturday, the only part of the day that was perfect for the Mountaineers was the weather. That can be good news and bad news in Boone. However, App State found a way to get it done, even after a day where there were thirteen combined punts between the two teams. Six players caught at least two passes, as tight ends Miller Gibbs and Henry Pearson snagged seven combined passes for 62 yards. The ground game was mostly stuck in the mud, with just 131 yards in all, but once again, when it counted, Camerun Peoples did the job. Peoples accounted for 25 yards on the drive that resulted in the go-ahead score, and another 21 yards on the final drive of the game, that melted the clock away. On those last two drives, predominantly guided by Jacob Huesman, Peoples gained forty-six of his sixty-seven rushing yards. No other back got the rock in the late stages of the game, and this could be a glimpse into the future for the App State offense.

There is not much to dislike about the matchup this weekend. Players and coaches live for these kind of games, where they can test their preparation and their teams skills in game that has a tremendous impact on the remainder of the season. Sure, you can say that App State needs to win this game in order to put them in position to play for the conference title. Well, so did the last game, and so will the next game after Coastal. But this challenge is not new to App State. It is new to Coastal Carolina. Being undefeated is not easy. It comes with attention, and pressure and can take the focus of just playing the game. Unfortunately for Coastal, they have had an extra week to think about being undefeated, before playing a school they have never beaten. All of this while trying to manufacture a rivalry and build a game up more then it perhaps needs to be. This is close to being a game where you throw the statistics out the window, because App State and Coastal are at or near the top of so many categories. Both teams can tout a balanced offense and a stout defense. They both get after opponents quarterbacks and protect their own. The similarities are almost endless on paper. But that is not where this game is played. At some point, the game is no longer played on social media or in television interviews. It happens between the lines. Both teams will want to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field, but it might be tough for either offense to get going. If anything, the Mountaineers’ tough game last week may have set them up perfectly for a game that may look the same. This game could come down to mistakes and who makes the fewest for sixty minutes. Coastal is one of the last penalized teams in the conference, and they need that continue. An option offense does not mix well with penalties. It thrives off manageable down and distance scenarios. If a couple extra flags fly, Coastal could be stuck trying to convert long yardage situations against an App State defense that is playing as well as it has all season long.

The First Pick

Beach Chickens 20

Mountaineers 27

Appalachian Football vs Georgia State

Appalachian State (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt) vs Georgia State (3-3, 2-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 14th, 2020 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 31,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 78.59

Georgia State: 61.30

Home: 1.81

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.1 points

Line: App State -16.0

Series: App State leads 6-0

Last Meeting: App State 56, Georgia State 27, Atlanta, GA November 16, 2019

Last season, Georgia State head coach was quoted as saying the “the people make the place, and now the people are gone”, when referring to his time at App State. That statement no longer holds true. Surely Elliott was referring to Scott Satterfield, Mark Ivey, Nick Cardwell and Dale Jones’ departure from Boone to Louisville. Half of those “people” have returned to Boone, so the pregame midfield conversations and post game handshakes might feel more like the “people are making the place” all over again. Never mind that Elliott’s quote is right out of the book of Jerry Moore, and Shawn Clark, a former teammate of Elliott’s, has pretty much cited Moore’s philosophies at every turn. This storyline might be getting old, but the story evolves with each passing year. The Panthers are still waiting for that breakthrough win against App State and with each year it does not occur, the pressure to do so builds even more. As much as Elliott wants that first one against his alma mater, across the sidelines stands a colleague, a teammate, and a friend, who wants his first as well.

After two weeks of low hanging fruit, App State will play its first game of the season against a divisional opponent in Georgia State. As the regular season comes to a close Georgia State will be playing its seventh game of the season, with only three games remaining. The Panthers are currently sitting in last place in the east division, and no team has allowed more points in conference play outside of Arkansas State. In those five conference games, the fewest points an opponent has scored has been 34 points, and that has occurred on exactly three occasions. The other two games, the Panthers surrendered 59 points and 51 points. That Panther defense is going to give up points regardless, but the difference in the wins and losses has really been about the offense scoring enough points. Last week, the Panthers took advantage of three ULM turnovers to run away with a 52-34 win. In their win against Troy, Georgia State benefitted from four turnovers from the Trojans, and an injury to Troy starting quarterback Gunnar Watson.

Last season, Georgia State decided they had a better chance to beat App State by starting injured quarterback Dan Ellington instead of their backup. That backup is now starting quarterback Cornelius Brown IV, or “Quad”. Brown did appear in that game, but Georgia State was trying to protect him and his redshirt status. Brown has already vaulted himself as a borderline top shelf quarterback in the league. He still has his freshman moments, but has really popped in his redshirt freshman season. Brown has been responsible for multiple touchdowns in every game this season, except Coastal Carolina. Brown has also taken only six sacks all season, with three of those coming against Coastal. He is also used in the zone read game as well, but not extensively. After ten or more carries in three of the first four games, Brown has been limited to under ten carries per game in the last two. He is a slim quarterback at 6’5 and 200 pounds, and the Panthers might be limiting his exposure down the stretch.

Georgia State has the third best rushing offense in the conference despite not having its full complement of running backs all season long. Leading rusher Destin Coates missed the Arkansas State game, but had otherwise been very consistent as the lead back. Tucker Gregg filled in for Coates nicely with a 142-yard effort against the Red Wolves. In fact, the Panthers fourth leading rusher behind Coates, Gregg and Quad Brown is Jamyest Williams, the South Carolina transfer who is listed as a cornerback. Injuries to Seth Paige have also limited him to just five carries on the season and one appearance. Coates has been the primary workhorse this season with twenty or more carries in four games, all in which he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground. Wide receiver Cornelius McCoy returned after a month absence to put up a 7-118-2 receiving line against ULM. McCoy also shredded East Carolina in October for seven catches and 59 yards. In McCoy’s absence, Sam Pickney amassed thirteen catches catches for 214 yards, including three touchdown receptions, all against Arkansas State.

For the second straight week, the offensive game plan was pretty much the same. That’s not a bad thing. Conference road wins should not be taken for granted, and App State went on the road twice in a row and came back with wins. In more simpler words, the Mountaineers got the job done. App ran the ball, controlled the clock, converted over fifty percent of their third downs, and most importantly, scored more points. Not just more, but twenty-one more points. Three touchdowns more. Check and check. The App defense gave up one big play in the air, but it did not hurt them. Monroe ran the ball well at times as App was defending the pass to keep the game in front of them. The defense added two interceptions to their season total, bringing the Mountaineers’ sum to ten on the season, which leads the conference and is fifth in the country, trailing just Arkansas, Wake Forest, Kentucky and Pitt.

It’s quite puzzling to find a team that is pretty decent at stopping opponents’ run game, yet so completely below average defending the pass. Usually in this beautiful game of football, being able to run and stopping the run leads to success and wins. The two most successful run-first teams that Georgia State played this year has been Louisiana and Coastal Carolina. Two teams with pretty good overall records. Louisiana is 35th nationwide rushing, averaging 193 yards per game. The Cajuns unloaded on the Panthers, rushing for 240 yards at 6.2 yards per carry. Coastal Carolina is 30th in the country, and went off for 250 yards on the ground, managing 5.3 yards per carry. The remaining four teams that Georgia State played are currently 73rd (ECU), 104th (Ark State), 112th (Troy), and 121st (ULM) on the ground nationwide. So in six games this season, Georgia State has allowed 723 rushing yards. Louisiana and Coastal are responsible for 490 of those yards. Next on the schedule: App State’s rushing offense plowing through teams for an average of 283 yards per game at 6 yards per carry. So as much as statistics on paper are going to suggest that App State should throw the ball to defeat the Panthers because they have played a bunch of pass-first teams, its really could be quite the opposite. Maybe Georgia State is not as bad as allowing twenty passing touchdowns in six games, and they are likely not as good is giving up just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. Either way, the Mountaineers will have the opportunity to put up some points this weekend no matter how they attack the Panthers.

The First Pick

Blue Kitties 23

Mountaineers 49

Appalachian Football @ Texas State

Appalachian State (4-1, 2-0 Sun Belt) vs Texas State (1-7, 1-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 7th, 2020 3:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Bobcat Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: FieldTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 78.22

Texas State: 57.30

Home: 1.87

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.05 points

Line: App State -17.0

Series: App State leads 5-0

Last Meeting: App State 35, Texas State 13, Boone, NC November 23, 2019

Getting up for Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State might be tough, but having them in consecutive weeks might be helpful. The Mountaineers are fully aware that last week was a “get up and get out” kind of game. No need to embarrass your opponent. Score a few points, sit back and watch the defense ball out and move on. Those type of games are also perfect practice to hone the craft and work on the small details in the film room to prepare for the next game. Texas State has equally struggled sometimes on both sides of the ball, and their record looks very similar to Monroe. Nonetheless, they are a dangerous team, that is hungry to get things turned around and have made some strides, but are running out of time. You just don’t know what kind of team you will be dealing with. Teams with nothing to win also have nothing to lose. App State can not win a conference championship this weekend, but they can take the next step in achieving that goal. The next mission is keep all of that energy focused into one sixty minute segment of football at a time.

Last week, we could firmly say that Monroe was a team that looked like their record. The same cannot be said about Texas State. Of course, at the end of the day, your record is what you are, but the Bobcats are not playing like a 1-7 team. That was evident from the beginning of the season when they gave Southern Methodist more than a good scare in just a seven point loss. That was followed by a coin-flip double overtime loss to UT-San Antonio, and a win over Monroe. Then the Bobcats travelled to Chestnut Hill and gave Boston College all they could handle. Texas State took a one touchdown lead into the fourth quarter, but could not hold on. In the opening games against the Power Five opponents, Texas State was able the run the ball well enough to keep the score reasonable, they just could not execute in the closing moments on both sides of the ball. In October, the Bobcats were less competitive, losing all four games by more than ten points, giving up at least 30 points in each contest, for an average of over 40 points allowed in the month.

Separating the first four games and the second four games, you see that Texas State only ran the ball for a few less yards per game, but the passing efficiency is really the key here. Texas State threw for at least 227 yards or more in each of the first four games, but has only eclipsed 200 yards passing once in the most recent quartet of games. In addition, the Bobcats threw ten touchdown passes in the first half of the season, but only five since then. Have they played better than the past? Yes. Are they playing better right now? That answer is up for discussion. Running back Brock Sturges is playing better with opportunity. Sturges had a season high seventeen carries last week in the loss to Louisiana, which he turned into 128 yards and two touchdowns, also season highs. Sturges had only carried the ball eight times a game in each of the last three contests. Calvin Hill is a freshman running back that gets passing game work, with sixteen receptions on the season. Hill’s rushing attempts have decreased as the season has worn on, averaging a little over twelve carries a game in the first four games, and just a shade over seven carries in the last four games.

Texas State been forced to use two quarterbacks for most of the 2020 season. Tyler Vitt and Brady McBride have each played in six games, but the Bobcats have played in eight, so you see the issue. Quarterback play and continuity concerns usually lead to a struggling offense. It may be apparent that McBride has emerged as the long term starter, but Coach Spavital mentioned in media availability on Wednesday that the position has been opened back up. Seeing Vitt would be surprising this weekend, because he has not faired well against App State in the past. Vitt threw for 154 yards and an interception against App in 2019, and 106 yards and an interception two seasons ago. Back to McBride, a Memphis transfer with two more years of eligibility remaining under normal circumstances. His statistics do not look good on paper, but he has the best chance to become a multi-year starter. McBride has thrown interceptions in four of six games played, and have racked up five interceptions in the last two weeks. This may be why Texas State suddenly has a quarterback competition again. That does not bode well facing an App State defense with eight interceptions on the season, and has been defending pass catchers as well as any unit in the country.

Last week was a pretty ho-hum effort by the Mountaineers. It was not too flashy, but it also did not need to be. The workmanlike effort filtered all the way down to Zac Thomas leading the team in rushing with 109 yards. The Mountaineers continue to spread the wealth on offense in both facets of the game. Six players caught passes and seven different Mountaineers got a carry. Of the primary ball carriers, four players split forty-four carries, with Marcus Williams Jr leading the team with just thirteen carries. The real story for App State this season is the play of the defense. Despite allowing a late touchdown that was inconsequential to the final result, App State is allowing a miniscule 17.6 points per game across the season. Teams are only rushing for 122 yards per game and opposing offenses are averaging just 4.76 yards per play, the seventeenth fewest in the country.

For App State, this part of the schedule always seemed like a place where complacency could have set in. Back to back trips west of the Mississippi River after what was supposed to be three straight weeks of tough conference opponents seemed like a potential spot for a slip up. But now, the schedule has shaken out in App State’s favor to an extent. This will likely be the last time App plays two road games in a row this season before returning to Boone next weekend. Thus, the schedule becomes normal. That’s a good thing. Still, App State has to make one of the longest road trips of the season this weekend against an improving team that really has nothing to lose, and is trying to find themselves. Now, we have an open quarterback competition. So does Texas State go back to the option that was not working? Or do they mix it up, because why not? Texas State will not win with the turnovers. They need a quarterback who is willing to throw the ball away and play another down. Without the turnovers last week, they might have been able to defeat Louisiana. The Bobcats must also get back to more manageable third down plays. In the past four weeks, Texas State has converted just eight of fifty-two third downs. Look for App State to put the ball in the air this weekend. The Bobcat secondary is super thin due to injuries. Coach Spavital also said on Wednesday, “The problem with our next man up approach, is we are running out of men”. Yikes. Texas State has surrendered twelve touchdowns passes in the last four games. They have allowed at least one forty yard pass play in five of eight games in addition to five 300-yard passing efforts in five of eight games. All of this while only sacking quarterbacks eight times all season. This one should be easy for the visitors.

The First Pick

Maroon Kats 15

Mountaineers 45

Appalachian Football @ UL-Monroe

Appalachian State (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) vs UL-Monroe (0-6, 0-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 31st, 2020 4:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Malone Stadium

Capacity: 30,427

Surface: FieldTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 79.60

UL-Monroe: 42.51

Home: 1.73

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 35.36 points

Line: App State -31.0

Series: App State leads 4-1

Last Meeting: App State 52, UL-Monroe 7, Boone, NC October 19, 2019

The night was nearly perfect. For a small contingent of fans, being able to sit or stand in Kidd Brewer stadium was enough. Fans may have not been in their typical seats, but seeing the stadium lit up for a national broadcast was a treat. Especially after getting to watch their team put on a clinical show in dominating fashion. Even after the layoff, the Mountaineers looked about as sharp as one could expect. The ground game clocked in for their usual three hundred yard effort. The defense smothered a potent passing attack to the tune of six sacks and kept the Red Wolves receivers out of the end zone. It was not perfect, but it was good enough to remind the league that App State is back, even though they never really left. So, after a much anticipated restart to the football season, and knocking off a quality opponent, the Mountaineers must find that inner strength to treat the next few games equally as the last.

Where can we start with Monroe? The zero in the win column is glaring. The losses are not flukes either. The Warhawks have been competitive in all of one game this season. They have lost by three touchdowns or more in every game except Georgia Southern, where they hung around until the final moments, before succumbing 35-30. More recently, Monroe had a bye week before playing South Alabama, and still managed to lose 38-14 to the current first-place team in the west division. In three games this season, the Warhawks have managed to score just one time. Outside of the thirty point effort, the offense has been downright miserable. Take those points away from ULM from the Goeriga Southern game, and they have scored 51 points in five games.The math is not hard. Coach Matt Viator received a two-year extension this offseason, and decided to start calling the plays, but it has yet to come together.

Monroe’s defense would be much better if the Warhawks had any semblance of an offense. That is obviously the biggest concern – scoring points. Opponents have outscored Monroe 73-10 in the first quarter alone. Monroe, again, has scored 81 points this season. They can’t move the ball, and they cannot stay on the field. Opponents have a seven minute edge in time of possession for the season, and still the Monroe defense is allowing just 36.5 points per game. Opponents have also scored 18 rushing touchdowns to just five passing against the Warhawk defensive side. If Monroe could find a running game, they might fare better on offense, which would in turn, keep their defense rested. The 2.9 yard per carry team rushing average is absolutely killing them. Even when other teams are getting big halftime leads, Monroe feels forced to throw the ball, and they are not incredibly efficient, which leads to short possessions and more time on the field for their defense.

Sophomore quarterback Colby Suits is learning on the fly it seems. Viator has no problem sticking him out there and seeing what works. Suits is getting plenty of experience, regardless of how beneficial it is. Suits is leading the conference in passing yards at 233 a game, but also has five interceptions, which also leads the conference. Suits is also the second leading rusher for Monroe with just 58 net yards. The one thing that Suits does well on offense is spread the ball around, whether it be by design or with an emphasis on gathering experience for younger players. Nine different Monroe pass catchers have at least ten receptions or more. That group is led by tight end Josh Pederson, who leads the team in receptions and yards. Pederson has yet to score a touchdown, but he is a big target, listed at 6’5″ and 235 pounds. Pederson caught nine touchdown passes in 2019, but was held to just two catches for six yards in the loss to App State in 2019, one of the worst games of his season.

For App State in 2020, the defense has always been there. In four games this season each opponent has been held under 21 points. As long as the defense continue to keep its foes between 17 and 21 points, there will be plenty of offense more times than not to continue winning games. Currently the Mountaineer defense is leading the conference in total defense and scoring defense. App State has allowed just one passing touchdown this season and surrenders just 44.8% of opposing quarterback passes to be completed. That’s an absolutely silly number. App State is also fifth in the country in team passing efficiency defense, and would be second if you eliminated teams that have played just one game. They will now face the conference’s fourth best passing offense, but worst offense overall on Saturday. Monroe’s 2.9 yards per rushing attempt does not match up well with a defense allowing for 3.7 yards per attempt, which should give App State more chances to create turnovers in the air.

We’ve given you plenty of reason to suggest that Monroe will have a difficult time with App State on Saturday. One could even look back to last year’s lopsided score if they wanted, and infer that this game might conclude with a similar result. If anything, both teams are not “as good” as they were in 2019. That’s an even scarier proposition for Monroe, who somehow managed a 5-7 record last year and had several close calls, but fell one game short of bowl eligibility. Last seasons 52-7 loss to App State was the worst showing of the Warhawks year. They lost in overtime to Florida State, by a touchdown to Arkansas State and a point to Louisiana. The South Alabama team they defeated by thirteen points in 2019, they just lost to by 24 points. It’s just not the year of the Warhawk. To their credit, many of the teams Monroe has played have been better versions of themselves than years past. South Alabama found an offense. Army won five games in 2019, and have already won six games this year. Texas State is better, its just not visible in their won-loss record. Even Liberty is 6-0 with a ACC win. Maybe that 0-6 record isn’t really as bad as it seems. App State will have a chance to test that theory. In order for Monroe to keep it close, they are going to have a lot of things go their way that typically does not. They’ll need long sustained drives with third down conversions. They’ll need to kick flawlessly and give themselves a chance on defense by limiting penalties. Is all this possible? Sure, we can all dream, but expect the Warhawks evening to be filled with nightmares.

The First Pick

Cypress Swamps 13

Mountaineers 42

Appalachian Football vs Arkansas State

Appalachian State (2-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) vs Arkansas State (3-2, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Thursday, October 22nd, 2020 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 24,050

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 79.47

Arkansas State: 67.79

Home: 1.78

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 13.46 points

Line: App State -11.5

Series: App State leads 2-1

Last Meeting: App State 35, Arkansas State 9, Jonesboro, AR October 9, 2018

It has been a long time coming. Did this wait feel longer than the offseason? Perhaps not, but this pause in the season has not been short by any stretch. Nearly four weeks will have elapsed since the last time the Mountaineers stepped on the field for a game. For many, most of that time has been spent isolated from the outside world. It’s odd for Kidd Brewer stadium to be empty this time of the year. For nearly three weeks, there were no whistles blowing, coaches shouting, music playing, nor pads thumping. It was so quiet, one could almost hear the leaves changing colors. October in the high country is typically the busy season, but not this year. Fortunately, as some of the foliage fell, cleats were laced, helmets were buttoned up and ankles were taped, and practice began, again. It will be a homecoming like no other, without a court, without a dance, block party or parade. The annual event will be without a lot of typical fanfare, but it will have a football game.

An uneventful week does not exist in 2020. Last week, most were just hoping this game was going to happen. Arkansas State played a Thursday night game against Georgia State, which became a shootout. The Red Wolves gave up a season high 583 yards of offense and 52 points to the Panthers. The next day, Arkansas State dropped the hammer on the defensive coordinator and defensive pass game coordinator. Suddenly, Arkansas State is a little short-handed on coaches. Relieving coaches of duties happens all the time in college football, but is definitely rare in the middle of the season. The conference is nicknamed the #FunBelt for a reason. However, Blake Anderson believes that replacing a couple coaches on a team, in the middle of a world health crisis, that has given up 500 or more yards in three of their five games will do the trick. Anderson has been through a lot personally, and anyone’s professional career would take a hit under those circumstances. The entire staff was replaced after 2018, and then after 2019, Anderson’s name pops up for Power Five jobs. And now in 2020, we are relieving coaches midseason. Doesn’t seem like a good trend.

The defensive side of the ball is where the question marks end for Arkansas State. A two quarterback system has flourished for the Red Wolves. That hardly ever works, but for the time being, stAte fans are riding that wave. Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher are both completing well over 63% of their passes and have been high efficiency passers. Hatcher averages 9.1 yards per attempt and Bonner is at 7.9 per pass. They are both very similar statistically, all the way down to each being sacked seven times on the season. Bonner is listed at 6’1, 215 pounds, while Hatcher is slimmer at 6’0 and 195 pounds. The two combined for 529 passing yards and seven touchdown against Georgia State. Neither quarterback has really had a bad game all season, and they both seem to be pretty interchangeable. Mostly, neither quarterback really is the difference between whether Arkansas State wins or loses.

Truthfully, the Red Wolves offense is really all about their wide receivers. Jonathan Adams has already hauled in 41 passes for 539 yards and seven touchdowns. Adams had just eight career receiving touchdowns coming into this senior season. Part of Adams’ statistics were ballooned by the aforementioned Georgia State game where he snagged an unreal 15 passes for 177 yards and two touchdowns. Another senior, Dahu Green has been equally impressive. Green caught just 10 passes in his first three seasons in Jonesboro, but has exploded for 25 receptions, 419 yards and five touchdowns. Green has also played in just four games this season and has five receptions in each game this season. Brandon Bowling rounds out the group of seniors who is also having a career year. Bowling has already eclipsed his junior season in terms of yards. Bowling has twenty catches and four touchdowns, and is the smaller of the set, standing at just 5’9 and 176 pounds.

Well, it seems like ages ago that App State played Campbell. Can we take anything from that game and apply it nearly four weeks later? It seemed like a “get through it” type of game. App State was down coaches and nearly twenty players due to contact tracing, which affected mainly offensive skill positions. Yet, may contributions were made by veterans and newcomers alike. Freshman Nate Noel was perhaps the biggest bright spot with 131 rushing yards on 14 carries. Da’Shaun Davis also looked like a potential star in the making with six catches for 40 yards. Daetrich Harrington carried 32 times for 211 yards and four touchdowns to keep the Mountaineer offense on track for most of the game. The defense held the Camels off the scoreboard in the third quarter, which provided the offense the time it needed to find a rhythm. App State scored three touchdowns in that third quarter to put the game away. Despite that, App State still has not looked quite itself in the first three games.

This game was scheduled for App State as the back end of a gauntlet. It was supposed to be Louisiana, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State in three straight midweek contests. It has since evolved into a stand alone Thursday night game in which both teams are looking for momentum. App State is only team remaining in the Sun Belt who has yet to play a conference game. Arkansas State is about to play its third, and it is quite pivotal. A second loss in the conference standings would provide an uphill battle to gain a berth in the conference title game, with Louisiana and current West leader South Alabama still looming. Nobody expects the Jaguars to hang around, but here we are. The pressure is really on the Red Wolves. They have a thinner margin of error with a team that has some major holes outside of their passing attack. The stAte offensive line has allowed fourteen sacks on the season and made room for just 111.8 yards rushing per game. Both of those key statistics are in the bottom quartile of the country. The Red Wolves are also among one of the worst teams in giving up not just yards and points, but they only possess the ball 26 minutes a game and allow their opponents nearly 25 first downs a game. A lot of games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage, and that’s one place App State will not allow itself to be beaten. Third downs are always important, but will be especially important for both teams on Thursday night. Finally, red zone scoring. Both teams are performing uncharacteristically below their expectation finishing drives in the red zone. Field goals are not going to cut it. However, App State will play enough defense at the right time to hold off Arky State.

The First Pick

Howling at the Moon 31

Mountaineers 41

Appalachian Football vs Campbell

Appalachian State (1-1) vs Campbell (0-2)

Saturday, September 26th, 2020 12:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 24,050

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.61

Campbell: 36.08

Home: 2.32

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 38.85 points

Line: App State -35.5

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 66, Campbell 0, Boone, NC September 6, 2014

One cannot help but think about a lyric in a song that was written some time ago that may remedy some mourning over a football game outcome. “Every dog has its day, and every day has its way…of being forgotten.” This is not your typical start to this group of words on this corner of the web, but this creator needs to put it down. For every first, there is a worst, you just don’t know when to expect it. The Mountaineers scored their fewest points in a game in the FBS era last weekend. In a game played against an old rival, the battle resembled one that could have occurred 30 years ago. But once again, that is the past, and moving forward is imperative. Plenty of goals are still in reach, and there is plenty to play for. The next opponent is perceived to have lesser talent, but they have shown a ton of improvement and have brought the fight to each foe despite coming up short. The Mountaineers do need to put last Saturday’s performance behind, yet at the same time, learn from what left that bad taste lingering.

The next opponent is Campbell, an up and coming Big South squad that is allowed to play four non-conference opponents this fall. Whether or not a conference slate is played in the spring is yet to be seen. Regardless, the Camels have been a nuisance to Sun Belt opponents. Campbell really should have beaten Georgia Southern after taking at 13-6 lead into halftime and extending it to 20-6 just moments into the third quarter. However, the shorthanded and contact-traced Eagles stormed back with three straight scores to take a 27-20 late in the game. Campbell scored a touchdown with just fifteen seconds remaining and their failed two point conversion resulted in a 27-26 loss. Last Friday night, Campbell visited Coastal Carolina before a national audience on ESPN, and the short week may have worn them out. Coastal showed a balanced offense with an efficient passing game and were hardly tested. Campbell did close the game to two scores early in the fourth quarter, but the Chanticleers put any upset bids to rest by scoring on their next two possessions.

Former Carolina Panther fan favorite Mike Minter remains as head coach for the Camels. Minter is in his eighth year and has a 36-44 record. After going 3-9 in his first year, Minter has backed that up with five win seasons from 2014-2016 and six win seasons in each of the last three campaigns. In 2018, Campbell moved from the Pioneer League to the Big South and maintained their record. It seems Minter has what it takes and could be in line for another job if his heart so desires. These opportunities for the schools that are playing college football while others are not sure puts the spotlight on G5 and FCS teams that normally are relegated to being streamed. Every game that Campbell has played, or are scheduled to play, is on the road in 2020. At this point, it is unlikely that they are road-weary, but they are operating with fewer scholarships, and have been outscored in both games in the second half, by a 43-25 combined total.

The heart of the Campbell offense lies in the hands of Hajj-Malik Williams, their quarterback and leading rusher. Williams has 374 yards passing on the season, completing 56% of his attempts with 2 touchdown passes and one interception. His 178 yards gained rushing excludes the 43 yards he has lost on the ground, which comes to a sum of 135 yards net. Behind Williams is CJ Freeman with 120 yards across two games on 6.0 yards per carry. Bryant Barr has 83 yards on the ground to go along with two touchdowns. However, it is mainly the Hajj-Malik show. He was sharper against Southern than Coastal, where he was sacked five times to go with his twenty-five drop backs. Getting sacked one out of every six drop backs is not ideal. Tight end Julian Hill has caught five passes for 89 yards while Jalen Kelsey has snagged a team leading nine receptions for 98 yards.

Losing is one thing. Losing and scoring seven points is another. Although the Marshall game was not decided until late in the second half, there were some signs that it was over much earlier. Shockingly, App State just could not get the running game going, and there was another day of split carries between the backs. Perhaps in a tough game like the last one, it would be beneficial for one back to get the ball more often, but the late scratch of Marcus Williams Jr may have sent the coaches scrambling. Either way, there were not many open spaces to run to or through. Defensively the Mountaineers were kept in the game by the efforts of Trey Cobb who contributed on fourteen tackles. Kaiden Smith added ten tackles and D’marco Jackson added eight. As a unit, the Mountaineers broke up eight passes, which leads the country in that category, along with allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 40% of their passes.

Predicting a game with such a large spread can sometimes be quite easy, and other times it can be difficult. Campbell is not a true replacement for Morgan State. It might appear that way on paper, but it really is not the case. It’s quite possible that Hajj-Malik Williams is the best quarterback App State will play to date. Williams is a decent passer, but App State has deployed one of the best defensive backfields in the country in the seasons first two weeks. Similar to last weekend, App State will face a an offensive line with some experience and looks the part. One would think that Campbell would try and shorten this game and really try to lean on the Mountaineers defense. That serves multiple purposes, as in staying away from a secondary that has been super stingy and trying to copy a strategy of the Mountaineers previous opponents. Campbell may decide to take its chances on third down and limit mistakes. Whatever happens when Campbell has the ball, the App State offense needs to sharpen their craft and really focus on the little things that make them successful. The distractions have surely been plentiful and the weekly ins and outs of being tested and not having a normal college experience are depressing, but we are all going through it in some way or fashion. The Mountaineers will get one more game in an empty stadium, hopefully, before some spectators are allowed back to Kidd Brewer. In the mean time, the home team wins this one, but not as convincingly as they would probably like.

The First Pick

Humps 17

Mountaineers 41