App State Football @ Georgia Southern

Appalachian State (6-5) @ Georgia Southern (5-6)

Saturday, November 26th, 2022 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Paulson Stadium

Capacity: 25,000

Surface: Shaw Legion HP synthetic turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.42

Georgia Southern: 61.89

Home: 1.86

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4.67 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4.5

Series: App State leads 21-15-1

Last Meeting: App State 27, Georgia Southern 3, November 27, 2021, Boone NC

Having difficulties conjuring up the energy to get excited about this game should not be the case. That might change on Saturday morning, when you’ve had plenty of turkey, and you maybe went shopping in a store on Friday. Sorry, that will change on Saturday morning. Turkey Day provides a distraction that’s not needed in this rivalry. It takes away from the message board and social media trash talk that has been hashed out and regurgitated for years. For instance, we’ve all heard that 6 is greater than 3. And finally, we can tell Southern fans about their series record against Georgia State. But seriously, you’ll wake up on Saturday morning, wherever you are, and one of the first things on your mind will be, “It’s a long time until 6pm”. The game will be on your mind just about every time you look at the clock. It will dictate just about every decision you make. And although we may not feel it during the week, that excitement will be there on Saturday.

The most interesting part regarding this matchup is that we have a “new” Georgia Southern. It is more than just first year head coach Clay Helton being new. Most noticeably, we have pass heavy Georgia Southern. They have a quarterback that has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the conference, but also leads the conference in interceptions by a significant margin. This dramatic shift has not eliminated the Southern ground game, but they are a middle of the road attack, in a conference where most teams have not run the ball well all year. The Eagles will find a way to score some points, but they have been playing catch up against their own defense all season long. In their first nine games of the season, Southern eclipsed 20 points in every game, but have managed just 17 and 10 points respectively against Louisiana and Marshall in their last two games. Since defeating Old Dominion on October 22nd, the Eagles have lost three conference games in a row.

The name of that quarterback is Kyle Vantrease, a sixth year player who transferred in from Buffalo, and is having a career year in Statesboro. Who knows what the Eagles look like without him. Clay Helton came to town to get Georgia Southern back to respectability, and he might be ahead of schedule if it were not for the last three weeks. Vantrease has had easily his worst three weeks of the season in November. Having completed under 60% of his passes in three straight games, throwing just four touchdown passes, and suffering four of his six sacks on the season, it seems that defenses have finally adjusted to the new offensive scheme. Yet, this is not all on Vantrease. South Alabama turned the ball over three times against Southern and the offense could not run in order to stay on the field. The defense gave up over 500 yards to both Marshall and Louisiana. Marshall converted over 50% of its third downs in a thirteen point win and Louisiana was just 3/14 on third downs and won by nineteen points. Make it make sense!

The Mountaineers rolled up a solid 498 yards against one of the worst defenses they have played all year in Old Dominion. If it is possible, the Southern defense is much worse. The Eagles have a bottom five defense nationally, mainly because they are a bottom five defense against the run. They have allowed 227 yards a game on the ground, this after Marshall rolled up 255 yards on the ground last week. In fact, Marshall’s struggling offense could be coming around, because they torched the Eagles for 529 total yards. Seven times this season, opponents have run for over 200 yards on Southern, which includes in each of the last three weeks. In fact, you can attack the Eagles in just about any way you want. In ten of the their eleven games, excluding their opener against Morgan State, Southern has allowed 240 or more yards either passing or rushing. Some weeks they gave up the pass, others the run, and on a couple occasions, they did both. The Eagles record is 1-5 in games where they allowed 240 or more yards rushing, with the only win coming against Nebraska.

It appeared the Mountaineers wanted to take the ball straight to Old Dominion last week with a patient and hard nosed running game. The Mountaineers ran the ball ten times for 44 yards in the first quarter, which also opened up some big passing plays that led to a 10-0 lead after one period of play. App State ran for another 60 yards in the second quarter on seven carries, and eclipsed 300 yards of offense by halftime while heading to the halftime break with 24-0 score. From there, it was basically cruise control. That’s pretty much the App State program we are accustomed to. On top of taking the game to the opponent early, you crush their will to compete with a vanilla game plan in the second half. Ahmani Marshall did not log a carry in the first quarter, got three carries in the second quarter, and then finished the game as the teams leading rusher with 137 yards on nineteen carries. Marshall ran for 56 yards in the third quarter and 58 yards in the final frame. Old Dominion tacked on two late scores for the backdoor cover, but it was mostly a relaxing afternoon.

When these two teams play, something is supposed to be on the line more than just bowl eligibility. That is not supposed to be the prize at the end of this game. The reward should be the inside line to winning the conference championship or winning the division. The last couple years, as this game has been played on a Saturday, at the end of the season, there was nothing on the line. Last year, the Eagles were playing out the season with an interim coach. Two seasons ago, people were tired of a pandemic and also looking forward to just getting to the end of the season. But 2018 and 2019 were different. Those games had some significance, as much as it pains to even mention it. Has this series begun to lose what it has been made of? Does it lack the punch it once had? Was moving it to Saturday a good move, but also a poor decision now that it has found Thanksgiving weekend? Is the cure simply about having games of significance? The more this sport evolves with the transfer portal and immediate success with quick trigger coaching moves, do you lose the importance of a rivalry? When there are 40 or so players on Georgia Southern’s roster that did not get their introduction to college football in Statesboro, are they as endeared to school buses and drainage ditches as the freshmen they play with? Clay Helton was one of the lucky ones to get a second chance coaching at an FBS school. Butch Jones at Arkansas State did the same. There is so much of this Southern team that reminds me of what happened in Jonesboro a year ago. A house cleaning of sorts that came with a much needed philosophy change, with new presidents and athletic directors charged with the task of fixing it. The early results are in, and those defenses at both schools are terrible. A quick glance at Southern’s roster, and you see a lot of guys with experience starting on both sides of the ball, yet they have fives in late November. And will they have to start over again next year? Vantrease will move on and their current backup played last year against App. Lot of questions going forward, but in the meantime, we play Saturday. This game comes down to the big plays, such as third downs and red zone scoring. This shapes up like last week does, but Southern’s offense is in better shape that Old Dominion. On the year, Southern is 18th in the country converting third downs into first downs, doing so 47.3% of the time. The Mountaineers are 98th in stopping third downs, allowing a 41.9% conversion rate to its opponents. And both ODU and Southern are decent red zone defenses, and App State converted 2 of 4 chances against the Monarchs. Still, this Southern defense is really bad, and I think the Mountaineers score from deep like they did last weekend. Southern has allowed 33.25 points per game at home to FBS opponents and that trend will continue.

The First Pick

Eaglets 33

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs Old Dominion

Appalachian State (5-5) vs Old Dominion (3-7)

Saturday, November 19th, 2022 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.45

Old Dominion: 56.85

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 13.6 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -15.5

Series: App State leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 31, Old Dominion 7, September 10, 2016, Boone NC

There was once a time when App State was one of the most difficult teams to beat when they visited opposing venues. After three road losses this season, it’s quite clear the Mountaineers are lacking that edge they used to have. To throw salt in the wound, in all three road conference losses, the home team wore black. Almost like they are mocking the Mountaineers. Do those psychological tricks work? Maybe it works for the fans, to give us something to talk about, and be annoyed by. But that is not why this season has unfolded the way it has. There is just a little bit missing this year. It’s difficult to explain. One possession here or there. Perhaps a missed a two point conversion. Or a penalty called incorrectly. But those are just excuses. If you want to win, you have to get on the field, figure it out, and earn it, no matter how it looks. Motivation should not be lacking in these final two games, with senior day on Saturday and your biggest rival next weekend. I have faith. I hope you’ll join me.

Old Dominion started their season with a difficult out of conference slate, facing Virginia Tech, East Carolina and Virginia. Old Dominion participated in Sun Belt September, when multiple teams in the conference knocked off Power 5 schools. But as it has been for those schools, the season did not continue as all had hoped. The Monarchs defeated the Hokies in Week 1, but since then have only managed two wins, at home against three-win Arkansas State, and the true mystery win over Coastal Carolina on the road. Since beating the Chanticleers four weeks ago, ODU has lost four straight conference games. The Monarchs scored 49 points on Coastal in that game, and have scored just 43 points since, with three of those games being at home. Prior to the Coastal game, ODU was averaging 21.6 points per game on offense, blew up for seven touchdowns on Coastal, and have managed just 10.75 points a game since. The Coastal game was the true peak of their season, and since, it has been downhill.

Most of the Monarchs opponents have attacked them with balance, but it seems a lot of the blame can be assigned to their offense, and their inability to run the ball effectively at times. Make no mistake, Old Dominion only has 928 rushing yards through ten games, and that’s pretty bad. Only seven teams in FBS are worse. But figure in that one game, where ODU ran all over Coastal, to the tune of 323 yards, and that number looks even worse. Seven times, the Monarchs have run for 90 yards or less. Let’s toss in the fact that Old Dominion has completed just 56% of their passes as a team. That leads to one of the more appalling and lopsided figures I have seen this season. Old Dominion almost never has the ball. The official ODU site says they average just under 24 minutes of possession a game. The NCAA site says its closer to 25 minutes a game. Discrepancies aside, it is one of the worst figures in the country. Possession is overrated if you can score, but the Monarchs are having a hard time there. For example, Ole Miss is a bottom-ten time of possession team, but they average 36 points a game.

Due to Old Dominion’s inability to move the ball, with only 15.5 first downs per game, their defense has to play a lot. Another major statistical oddity, the Monarch defense has defended 182 more plays than their own offense has run. One hundred eighty-two plays. If ODU is running about 60 plays a game, and their opponents run 18 more plays per game, it’s almost works out to the ODU defense playing three more games than their offense. Wondering why they have been outgained by 110 yards per game? It’s because they have been defending so many plays. And they really have not been bad despite this. Their defense gives up 5.6 yards per play, which is not great, but considering their exposure, it is somewhat fine. And they will give up those yards between the 20-yard lines, but once you get in the red zone, they wont let you score much. On forty red-zone drives, the Monarchs have allowed just eighteen touchdowns and twelve field goals. They have turned away 25% of their opposing offenses red zone drives, which makes them a top-12 red zone defense in the country.

Although the box score suggests the weather was sunny during the game, it was anything but that. It was a cold, wet, misty day in Huntington, WV with two struggling offenses that played down to the weather. The Mountaineers turned in their lowest offensive output of the season, with just 293 total yards. That resulted in two offensive scores in another road game where the Mountaineers trailed from start to finish. The two offensive touchdown drives went a total of 82 yards and took nineteen plays between the drives. App State averaged just 2.9 yards per run, 5.2 yards per pass, and 4 yards per play for the game. The defense created chances for the offense many times throughout the game, yet the offense was unable to capitalize. Eight Marshall drives went for 21 yards or fewer. Without sustained drives this weekend, Old Dominion’s very bad defense becomes just bad, giving up yards in the middle of the field, but holding steady in the red zone. The Mountaineers are due for some big offensive plays to go their way.

There exists a couple different dynamics in play they are hard to measure in a game such as this. One team needs a win more than another. Last week, Old Dominion lost their seventh game of the season, which will exclude them from postseason play. The Monarchs started last season at 1-6, but reeled off five straight wins to gain bowl eligibility, before falling to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. That after the Monarchs did not play a season in 2020 due to the pandemic. The Sun Belt is a different animal week to week compared to Conference USA, where they played previously. Many out of conference, in-state games are set for Old Dominion, that gives them the look of the UL-Monroe of the Sun Belt East. Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina are mainstays on the Monarchs future scheduling. In what appears to be a strong East Division moving forward, they may reconsider playing the Power Five games that have been scheduled. It’s great when you can get an upset, but as App State has also learned this season, the long term effects can have a substantial impact. Old Dominion has two bowl appearances in their FBS history and their region is always hailed as a fertile recruiting ground, yet the year to year results have not been there. As it stands, Old Dominion has three main offensive contributors, and nobody else stands out. Their quarterback Hayden Wolff has played just about every snap. Running back Blake Watson has 130 carries on the year, while the next closest player has thirty carries. Ali Jennings III has hogged 54 receptions and nine touchdowns, while no other receiver has more than 24 catches and two touchdowns. Between Watson and Jennings III, they have scored 15 of the 25 offensive touchdowns this season. Switching back to the other side of the ball, in the last four games, Old Dominion’s opponents have ran at them at a higher rate than at any point this season. The Monarch’s had not defended 50 rushing plays in a game this season until they ran into Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Marshall and James Madison. Old Dominion defended 219 attempts and allowed 927 yards on the ground in those four games, while giving up nine rushing touchdowns. Somehow, Marshall ran for 298 yards and failed to get in the end zone! If the Mountaineers stay with it, they’ll get some yards on the Monarchs and can hopefully find several touchdowns in their home finale.

The First Pick

Royals 16

Mountaineers 30

App State Football @ Marshall

Appalachian State (5-4) @ Marshall (5-4)

Saturday, November 12th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Joan C Edwards Stadium

Capacity: 38,227

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.88

Marshall: 67.16

Home: 2.09

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .63 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -1

Series: App State leads 15-9

Last Meeting: App State 31, Marshall 30, September 23, 2021, Boone NC

After a trip to the almost beach in Conway, App State will travel the opposite direction to the banks of the Ohio River to face Marshall in a conference game for the first time since 1996. It’s hard to believe it has been over a quarter century since the last such meeting. These teams have played some very memorable games over the years against one another. This series is tied at 6-6 in games played in Huntington, and the last time the Mountaineers visited, Marshall knocked the Mountaineers out of the Top 25 rankings. A previous game in Huntington included the Mountaineers winning a tough game to remain undefeated in their magical 1995 season. Last season, the Mountaineers broke a three game losing streak to Marshall by scoring ten unanswered points in the fourth quarter. After back to back games in this series with a national audience, these teams will clash looking to find their way into bowl eligibility. Both teams need two wins, and neither wants to head into their final two games of the regular season needing to win both contests.

If you thought Coastal and App are turning into a big deal, may I introduce App State and Marshall. This rivalry was a big deal, and will continue to be a big deal. These two teams have traded home wins the past two seasons, and both games were thrilling and tight from start to finish. Saturday looks to be the same, with two teams struggling with inconsistent parts of their team. The App State offense can look unbeatable at times, and at other times, look downright boring. Marshall struggles on offense, but has a stingy defense that keeps them in every game. Both teams gained Power 5 wins earlier in the year, but have not resembled those teams for some time now. Marshall scored a 12-0 victory over Old Dominion last week, that basically sums up their entire season. Plenty of defense, and enough offense. The Herd kicked four field goals in their shutout win while recovering three Old Dominion fumbles. They controlled the game, possessing the ball for 38 minutes, but failed to score touchdowns with five trips in the red zone.

One might look at the Marshall schedule further, and see that they defeated James Madison a few weeks ago. Madison did not have quarterback Todd Centeio that game, and their backup threw four interceptions and was sacked seven times. The Dukes were also 0-17 on third down in that contest. That accounts for two of Marshall’s five wins. The other three were over Norfolk State, Notre Dame and Gardner Webb. One of those three schools does not belong with the other two. That’s right, Marshall beat Notre Dame back in September, the same weekend that App State beat Texas A&M. Two Notre Dame quarterbacks combined to throw three interceptions against the Herd. Hopefully you noticed the trend. In Marshall’s three FBS wins, they have received a lot of help via the turnover. It’s a large part of their success, having gained 21 turnovers all season long, ranking 5th in FBS in that category. But then again, half of those turnovers gained occurred in just three games.

The Herd have used two quarterbacks this season. In the the first six games, Henry Colombi handled most of the snaps. The Texas Tech transfer was largely ineffective as a passer with just six touchdown passes, but was pretty accurate overall, completing well over 70% of his passes. However, he has not played since the Louisiana game, when he completed just nine of his thirteen passes for 68 yards. Redshirt freshman Cam Fancher has been inserted in the starting lineup the last three games, using his feet as a runner to complement the Marshall run game. Fancher has just one touchdown pass and four interceptions since he has been starting, while completing around 50% of his passes. The Herd is averaging 17 points per game since Fancher took over. Let us remove the blowout win over Norfolk State from consideration. Marshall managed 26 points against Notre Dame, 28 against Bowling Green in regulation, 7 against Troy and 28 against Gardner Webb. That comes to nearly 23 points a game. Fancher is guiding the offense to six fewer points per game.

Another frustrating day for the App State ground attack has many asking questions. Seems the successes against Robert Morris and Georgia State are long gone. Coastal was decent on run defense. Marshall is better. Leaps and bounds better. Opponents are only gaining 78.7 yards per game on the ground against the Herd. That’s the third best figure in the country. James Madison is second against the run, and the Mountaineers were limited to 63 yards in that game. This will be a challenge. Can App State find a way to run the ball against Marshall? App State managed just 88 yards on the ground last week, and it was not like they were forced to throw. Maybe the Mountaineers attack the Herd in the air first. Although Marshall does not have unbeatable statistics against the pass, they do have 13 interceptions on the year, yet they allow 11.8 yards per catch. The Herd only gives up 21% of third down conversion on defense, so running the ball seems like a stretch. Maybe the Mountaineers can get the secondary walking backwards on the snap by getting their tight ends and receivers going early.

Touchdowns might become premium this Saturday. Marshall doesn’t give them up and their offense does not score them. A slower pace of offense could favor the Mountaineers, if they can get in gear. It is likely that Marshall will hang around, as they are limited offensively, outside of their ground game. Marshall loves to hand the ball to Khalan Laborn, and for good reason. Laborn has accumulated 1200 yards on the ground in just nine games, and has thirteen touchdowns to his credit. The Herd will go as he does. Marshall has 100 first downs on the ground alone this season. The run game, combined with a stellar defense, is usually one of the oldest recipes in the book for a successful football team. However, Marshall sits here with a 5-4 record, and really has not defeated a good football team since Notre Dame. They are a perplexing team. A lot of the same things can be said about App State at this point. The juice has been missing since mid-September. And although there have been glimpses of success, it has been inconsistent all year long. Both teams are in situation where they are playing to make a bowl game, which is well below the expectations of competing for the East division. This one feels like it has the makings of a classic game in this rivalry, but at the same time, it feels like something weird could happen. You could say the same thing about the 2020 game in Huntington. That was a classic defensive struggle for most of the game until Marshall scored late to put the game out of reach. But this is nearly a completely different Marshall team from two years ago. One that has lost its last two home games, and scoring just thirteen points in each game. You also just don’t know which App State team will show up. You could get the first half team or the second half team. The team that gives up numerous third downs, or the one that makes crucial mistakes at the worst times. The Mountaineers have the talent to play with any team in this league, but for whatever reason it has not clicked this season on a consistent basis. But the Mountaineers are still better than a watered down Louisiana team that Marshall lost to at home. And they are better than James Madison without their quarterback. If the Mountaineers can control the game with a creative game plan, and show Marshall things they have not seen on tape, they should be able to wear down that Herd defense. Additionally, the Mountaineers linebackers need to be ready to tackle well all game long. The first team to 20 points will probably win, and I think Chase Brice should be the difference.

The First Pick

Plunderers 18

Mountaineers 24

App State Football @ Coastal Carolina

Appalachian State (5-3) @ Coastal Carolina (7-1)

Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.65

Coastal Carolina: 67.39

Home: 1.82

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.44 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -3

Series: App State leads 7-1

Last Meeting: App State 30, Coastal Carolina 27, October 20, 2021, Boone NC

This Thursday comes down to an all or nothing situation. A lot of how the remainder of the season is approached will come down to this result. And it works that way for both teams. A loss by either, and they will need some major help to achieve their goals. The Mountaineers have been tested this season. Sometimes by teams they expected, and other times by teams they may not have. Coastal, themselves, has not really had many games where you can say they ran away with one, outside of a midweek contest at the friendliest place to play in the conference. They have allowed 26 or more points to every team they have played at home, including the likes of Gardner-Webb and Army, and those numbers have slowly gone up over the course of the season. Yet, the Chanticleers have managed a sell-out for just about the only team their fans and students really care to beat, while promoting a “black out” at the same time. So instead of promoting their brand, they opt for being something they actually are not. Seems to fit them quite well.

Whether we want to admit it or not, Coastal and App are still a big deal. When the schedule was released, this game week was singled out as a game that will have a major impact on the Sun Belt East Division race. It remains that way as we enter a pivotal ninth game for both teams. Whoever wins will have a major inside line to representing the division in the conference championship game. Coastal made it here by only dropping one game, but it was a noticeable loss, just a couple weeks ago at home to Old Dominion. Coastal can usually find a way to win closely played games, but this one was no such contest. The Chanticleers were dominated from start to finish. The Monarchs never trailed in the game where they ran for 323 yards on the ground on just 32 attempts. In all, Old Dominion averaged 10.8 yards per play, an uncanny figure. Grayson McCall’s 358 passing yards were not enough, and his three touchdown passes were not enough, but it was six sacks by the ODU defense that ruined Coastal’s homecoming weekend.

Usually with the Coastal offense, they go as the way their quarterback goes. Grayson McCall has had another stellar year. But as was mentioned earlier, it’s not all McCall. He’s an integral part of what they do, and they suffer when he isn’t playing. He’s completing close to 69% of his passes on the year, even after completing just 13 of 24 passes last week against Marshall. His lone interception of the year was way back in Week 2 against Gardner-Webb, and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games. Although, McCall has thrown just five touchdown passes in his last three games, he remains on fire in home games, tossing 15 touchdown passes across five contests, and exactly three touchdown passes in each game. This all comes down to which storyline you want to follow. Let’s throw another wrench into this Coastal offense correlation with McCall’s output. In the last three weeks, Coastal has averaged just 24.3 points per game, where in the first five games of the season, the Chants were scoring 36.4 points per game. That’s a decent reduction of points all of a sudden. In two of those three games, wins over Marshall and ULM, both on the road, Coastal recovered two fumbles.

Back to McCall for a brief moment. Of his three years starting for the Chanticleers, he’s evolved into more a passer than a runner. Concerns with keeping him healthy and away from defenders is part of it. It’s a natural progression for just about any quarterback that is mobile or considered a dual threat. McCall ran for 569 yards in 2020, 290 yards in 2021, and 158 yards so far in 2022. McCall has had one game this season, where his rushing statistics, due primarily to lost yardage on sacks, were in the negative. That was the Old Dominion loss. He also had one such game last year, where his rushing totals were in the negative. That was the loss to App State. The Mountaineers collected eight tackles for loss including three sacks in the game. App State also fumbled twice in that game, keeping it closer than it really should have been. The Mountaineers outgained Coastal by 229 yards last year, but these two teams are a lot different in 2022. Coastal had three different backs rush for over 500 yards on the season in 2021, with one back eclipsing 1,000 yards. This season, Coastal has just one back in CJ Beasley who is over 500 yards through eight games, followed by Reese White with 334 yards. Coastal is rushing for 52 less yards per game and 1.5 yards per carry fewer than they did a season ago.

The way this App State offense has played for several weeks leads to plenty of concerns facing a team like Coastal Carolina that likes to start fast. The Mountaineers will have to be ready to go from the first whistle. App State has seen success many different ways over the course of the McCall era. This is a very winnable game if the Mountaineers play their brand and hold onto the football. Their game is a steady dose of the run, mixed with passing elements. The running backs should be fresh, with Nate Noel and Daetrich Harrington combining for a perfect change of pace to Camerun Peoples, who has been difficult to take down this season once he gets a couple steps upfield. Coastal is holding opponents to ten less yards per game on the ground compared to last season. In 2021, they allowed 4.1 per carry, while giving up 4.0 per tote in 2022. However the Mountaineers could be looking to pass on Thursday night, against a secondary that has given up 273 yards per game this season. In addition, Coastal has surrendered 83 more yards per game, and nearly 2 more yards per attempt and completion this season compared to last. And we all remember the Malik Williams game from a season ago, where he shredded the Chant defense for 206 yards. Corey Sutton also had a huge game with 113 yards receiving.

It’s pretty easy to sit back and mention, that to keep from Coastal from winning, you have to do certain things, and it will all work out. What App State did last year was exactly what you do not want to do against a team built like Coastal. The Mountaineers were down 14-0 after the first quarter. Not good. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over twice to Coastal by fumbling. Very bad. Usually, that is not going to work. Luckily, an on-sides kick was miraculously executed to a tee, and the Mountaineers tied the game just about as quickly as they fell behind. An interesting statistic to note in that game, Coastal ran just 52 offensive plays, yet time of possession was fairly even. Converting just three of nine third down conversions kept the Chants off the field for the most part. So, all the things the Mountaineers could not afford to do, they did, and still were able to amass 575 yards offense. And now, App State will have their chance at a defense, that is arguably worse than they were a season ago. Ranked 98th overall, and 113th in passing yards, Coastal has given up yards this season, and because of it, are allowing nearly six more points a game on defense. Yet, Chase Brice and the Mountaineers will be playing in just their third road game of the season, where Brice has averaged about 265 yards per game on the road, and has only been sacked three times. Those two games in Texas might not provide enough of a sample size to truly represent what could happen after a bus ride to Conway. Maybe all this comes down to App State running the football. The Mountaineers ran for 204 yards back in 2020, but did not adjust their game plan in the second half. Last year, the Mountaineers raced for 228 yards on the ground. In both situations, it involved slow steady attacks, to keep the ball out of the hands of the Coastal offense. The longer the Coastal defense remains on the field, the better for App State. No team ever wants to go down 14 points to start a game, but the Mountaineers pulled it off last year, and then again this season against Georgia State. In both scenarios, the Mountaineers never panicked, even if they had to adjust their plan on the fly, and it worked out. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Mountaineers, but there are just as many reasons to doubt a Coastal team that allowed teams like Army and Gardner Webb to hang around. The best win either of those two have is probably UL-Monroe. In the Georgia Southern game, neither defense could stop the other. That one came down to who had the ball last. The Chants offense carried them early on, and they are the reason they win, but that defense just has way too many issues giving up yards, which will lead to their demise on Thursday night.

The First Pick

Chaucers Chickens 20

Mountaineers 28

App State Football vs Robert Morris

Appalachian State (4-3) vs Robert Morris (0-7)

Saturday, October 29th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.24

Robert Morris: 22.99

Home: 1.94

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 52.19 points

VegasInsider Line: No line

Series: n/a

Last Meeting: n/a

The first step was taken in the right direction. It can be easy to get off your path, and sometimes finding your stride again is twice as hard. But the Mountaineers found something last Wednesday night. It’s understandable if you are not sold yet. That’s a normal feeling. That path might still have some bumps along the way, but its important to be on it. The Mountaineers get a small break before a big game next week, on a short week no less. No looking ahead, but it is hard not to. Robert Morris should not present much of a challenge. That does not mean they are not trying to get better themselves. They’ll try to gain yards, get first downs, score points, and stop the Mountaineers from doing those same things. But this is a game where App State will want to take care of business early and allow those who do not get as much playing time, to have those opportunities to succeed.

The Robert Morris Colonials found the App State football schedule due to Marshall joining the Sun Belt this season. Originally, Marshall and App State were scheduled to play as non-conference opponents, and the hurried restructuring of conferences this past offseason sent the Mountaineers scurrying for a twelfth opponent. Imagine shopping for bread and milk at the grocery store when the snow is already falling. You get the idea. The last team that Robert Morris defeated was Campbell in 2021. And then Campbell turned around a year later and stomped the Colonials 41-10 on October 15th. In fact, in five of Robert Morris’ seven losses, their average margin of defeat is 32.4 points. The Colonials have scored 20 points once this year, in their season opener. Since, they have managed to score 8.33 points per game, and have reached double digit scoring just three times.

The quarterback position has been a merry-go-round for the Colonials this season. In their first game against Dayton, Anthony Chiccitt got his first collegiate start, and Jake Simmons came in for relief in the fourth quarter. The same scenario occurred in the second game against Miami (OH). Chiccitt started and Simmons finished. In their third game, Jake Simmons started, but Corbin Lafrance played most of the second half. In their fourth game, Simmons started again, but was relieved by Zach Tanner in the second quarter. In game five, it was Zach Tanner who started and gave way to Corbin LaFrance. Tanner and LaFrance also got playing time against Campbell, and it was back to Chiccitt last week against North Carolina A&T. Hope you were able to keep up. Of the four primary quarterbacks, neither has played in every game, yet they have all thrown interceptions, and only Chiccitt and Simmons have thrown touchdown passes. Tanner completes just 43% of his passes to his teammates, while 9% has gone to the opponents. That’s a really complicated way to say, he has thrown six interceptions on just sixty-two attempts.

As football goes, you need good quarterback play to win. You can have a variety of playmakers all over the field, but its starts with that quarterback. It’s clear that Robert Morris has lacked in consistency this season at that position. That makes it incredibly harder for wide receivers to do their job, when and when not to expect a pass to be delivered, or for the offensive line to know when that ball might be out, or where that quarterback might be in the pocket. But Robert Morris needs other pieces as well for their offense. Running back Alijah Jackson is the most trusted player in the Colonial offense. He has carried the ball 99 times for 335 yards, without finding the end zone. His 3.4 yards per carry average is second best on the team to quarterback Jake Simmons’ 4.3 yards per carry. But as noted previously, Simmons has played in just four games, and only has eight attempts on the ground. Anthony Purge and Kimon O’Sullivan have filled in at time, but neither has been efficient, both with less than 75 yards to their credit on the season on the ground.

After a slow start, the Mountaineers offense started clicking last Wednesday. It still wasn’t a full sixty minutes of football, but the trend line is heading in the right direction. As quickly as the Mountaineer run game dissipated several weeks ago, it came back in a hurry. Georgia State ran out to a 14-0 lead, and it looked like they might take that into halftime before the Mountaineers put together their best drive of the game. A 12-play, 75-yard drive that consumed five and a half minutes of game clock. That score right before the halftime break ignited a defense, which went on to force three second half turnovers. In turn, those turnovers turned into short fields, and with the aid of a Milan Tucker 63 yard kickoff return, allowed App State to score touchdowns on five straight drives. Whatever happened in the second quarter was the fire the Mountaineers needed. It was a perfect night for running the ball 64 times right at the Georgia State defense, who was helpless in stopping whichever running back that App threw at them.

Just about the only way to compare Robert Morris to anyone that App State has played this year is to look back at the Citadel game. Sure, both schools are in the FCS, but they are both very bad on offense. Fresh off a win last weekend at Western Carolina, Citadel scored over 20 points in a game for the second time this season. That has only happened once this season for Robert Morris. The Citadel is averaging 284 yards of offense this year, which is 112th out of 123 teams. Robert Morris is 122nd in the FCS at 222 yards per contest. Want an idea of how far 222 yards is? It’s not even a down and back of entire football field, including end zones. Robert Morris has a total of nine offensive touchdowns on the season, which ties them for dead last in total offensive touchdowns in the FCS, with Lafayette and Bucknell. Robert Morris has two more touchdowns than Iowa, which only has seven. Fort Lewis in Division II also has scored seven touchdowns on offense, which is dead last in that division. And there are about a dozen teams in Division III who have yet to score nine touchdowns on offense. That was one unplanned rabbit hole, but we found the bottom somehow. Back to the Citadel, a team who clearly runs the triple option. The Citadel has completed 49.5% of its passes this year, while Robert Morris sits at 50.5%, both figures that sit in the bottom twenty of all FCS schools. The Colonials are dead last in FCS in third down conversion percentage at 21.8%. This Robert Morris team might be the worst offensive team the Mountaineers have ever faced. It’s brutal. However, to consider that the Colonial defense allows just 34.1 points per game, with the help of only 10 points a game on offense, is actually commendable. There can be two sides of that coin. The Colonials red zone defense is 50th in FCS. They have defended 29 red zone drives, but have allowed just fifteen touchdowns in the red zone, while forcing eight field goals. That’s pretty stubborn defense. But the Colonials have also allowed fifteen touchdown from beyond the red zone. That’s a classic case of playing better defense when there is less field to cover. Is that enough to keep the Mountaineers out of the 60+ point total? It’s possible, but the real question should be whether Robert Morris can score.

The First Pick

Financiers 0

Mountaineers 59

App State Football @ Texas State

Appalachian State (3-2) vs Texas State (2-3)

Saturday, October 8th, 2022 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Bobcat Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Field Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 75.46

Texas State: 51.13

Home: 2.07

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 22.26 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -19

Series: App State leads 6-0

Last Meeting: App State 38, Texas State 17 November 7, 2020, San Marcos, TX

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Citadel was no match for the Mountaineers as the home team broke a two game winless streak against their former conference foe. App State started the game much like the hurricane that hampered attendance, striking quickly and cruising to a large lead before the second became a game of handoffs and clock killing. You can almost use that same phrase when describing the Mountaineers next opponent. Texas State is trying different ways to win football game, yet the results have not really paid off as of yet under their fourth year coach. App State will be playing its second game of the season on the road, oddly, both being played in Texas. The Mountaineers survived the heat in September, but the High Country has been in the throws of fall for a few weeks now. That Texas heat in October may come as a larger shock to the bodies this time around. Luckily, not much energy was exerted last week, and there will be a few extra days of rest prior to the next conference matchup.

This game will be the seventh in the series between the two teams, and sixth while conference mates in the Sun Belt. In those six games, App State has had to travel to San Marcos four times since 2017. The Mountaineers hosted the Bobcats twice, in 2016 and 2019. Unbalanced scheduling and realignment has led to this somewhat, but it does not truly explain the cross division discrepancy. It’s likely that the next time these two play after this Saturday will be in Boone, but in what year that will be is a complete unknown. Switching gears a bit, the Bobcats have played twenty football games since they last faced App State. In those twenty games, Texas State is 7-13, which is about par for the course in San Marcos. But in those seven wins, the Bobcats have beaten just five teams, as they have claimed two wins apiece over Arkansas State and Florida International. The other victims included an overtime win over South Alabama, an eight point win over UL-Monroe, and a victory over Houston Christian University, the school formerly known as Houston Baptist.

Of the games Texas State has played this year, their record stands exactly where you thought it might be, but they have played some absolutely boring games. In both wins and losses, the closest game they have played was the opener, on September 3rd, in which they lost by 24 points. It’s been blowouts all season long, so even after five games, its hard to tell what Texas State has this year. Last week the Bobcats were thumped in their Sun Belt opener by James Madison, who on paper, appears to have played their game with ease. Against Nevada, the game was close at halftime, just a one score deficit at 14-7, but the Bobcats fumbled twice in the third quarter and gave way to Nevada winning comfortably. Against Baylor, a similar scenario played out. A third quarter fumble on their opening drive flattened Texas State, and they gained just seventy-eight yards on six drives for the remainder of the game. And once again, against James Madison, they played their best second half of the season, but spotted the Dukes a 19-0 lead at half. The Bobcats have yet to play two halves of football, and it has shown in all of their losses.

It’s quite funny, that of the wins that Texas State was able to acquire over the last twenty games included Arkansas State. Mainly, because two of their main contributors on offense went through Jonesboro. You may remember the name Layne Hatcher, who officially began his career at Alabama, where he redshirted and transferred to A-State way back in 2019. He started nine games in 2019, and then didn’t start at all in 2020. He earned 7 starts in 2021 before leaving town. He’s taken every snap for Texas State this year. The Mountaineers defense harassed Hatcher last year into three interceptions and four sacks in the 48-14 win over Arkansas State. In 2020, App State also picked off Hatcher once and sacked him twice in Boone. This season, Hatcher has thrown 11 touchdown passes in five games, but the interceptions are still bugging him, with six picks being thrown. Those have all occurred in four games. Lincoln Pare is the second leading rusher for Texas State in 2022, but was the leading rusher for Arkansas State in 2021. Pare has back to back eighty yard performances in his last two games after getting just thirteen carries in the first three games of the season.

The Mountaineers were extremely hard to defend on Saturday; when they had the ball. App State scored seven touchdowns on just 20:09 of possession. In fact, one of the craziest statistics of all, the Mountaineers had the ball for one play on offense in the third quarter and scored on a 80-yard touchdown pass from Chase Brice to Christan Horn. App State ran 47 plays for the game, spreading the ball to five running backs, with neither getting more than seven carries. In fact, it was probable redshirt candidate Kanye Roberts with a game high seven carries that he took advantage of for 70 yards. Camerun Peoples stretched his legs for a seventy-three yard touchdown run in the second quarter. Dashuan Davis also found himself wide open for a 44-yard touchdown catch in the opening quarter. All of these big plays equated to the Mountaineers averaging 11.6 yard per snap. When you are moving the ball at that clip, possession will be hard to come by, but as long as the defense can keep the other team off the board, its a negligible statistic.

Texas State is going somewhere. Nobody knows where that is. This is a program that has struggled mightily for years. Since their move to FBS, its been an uphill battle in the mud. This was a once proud program with some success in Division II and FCS. They won back to back FCS titles in 1981-1982. They had a couple playoff berths in the FCS days, but since they have entered FBS, it has been tough. Texas State currently holds a winning record against one Sun Belt school. They lead South Alabama 4-3, and are 4-4 against Georgia State. Those schools were recent football startups. Between App State, Ga. Southern and Coastal Carolina, they are a combined 2-12. They have never beaten Louisiana in nine tries and are 1-11 against Troy. How do they start getting better? Maybe its by recruiting better. Recently, Texas State has relied heavily on transfers. The Bobcats list 50 players on their roster who have not transferred in from another college or university. Sixty-nine others have transferred in from all over the country. San Marcos is almost like an island of misfit college football players. Their head coach Jake Spavital is in his fourth year. He’s been given one more year than his predecessor Everett Withers to get this ship righted. Withers won seven total games and two conference games in three years. Spavital has won nine games, and seven in conference play in his first three years. There is some improvement, but is it enough? Texas State has had one season since moving to FBS with an over .500 won-loss record and they have still have not played in a bowl game. Eventually, Texas State will find what they are looking for, whether that be wins on the football field, a new coach, or perhaps even a new conference. In the meantime, they are here playing games, and their opportunities to get those wins might be as good as ever. The Sun Belt West appears to be wide open for the first time in several years. There is an outside chance of winning five or maybe even six games, but they’ll need to start playing cleaner football. They’ve turned the ball over eleven times this season and opponents have accepted 33 penalties committed by the Bobcats. They’ll need long drives and touchdowns to keep up with App State, but the numbers say it’s unlikely to happen.

The First Pick

Wack in Black 15

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs The Citadel

Appalachian State (2-2) vs The Citadel (1-2)

Saturday, October 1st, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.63

Citadel: 42.76

Home: 1.89

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 31.76 points

VegasInsider Line: n/a

Series: App State leads 29-13

Last Meeting: Citadel 31, App State 28 (OT) October 5, 2013, Charleston, SC

Let’s just get this over with. Nobody wants to dwell much on the past. We all know we can’t change it, but we do need to learn from it. We’ve added another unprecedented tally in the fourth game of the season. An ugly one at that. Twice this season the Mountaineers have given up insane scoring runs by their opponents in their own backyard. And twice, the other side of the ball could not come through for a score to break up those runs. Everyone needs to do their job better, not just the offense, defense, special teams or coaches. It’s a group effort. We are all in this thing together. Nothing is more humbling than giving up a game that was nearly in hand. And the previous week really should have put everyone on notice that nothing is over until it actually is. Bouncing back will be a challenge, and this season is still long from over. All the goals are well within reach, and if there is anything we have learned from this season, not a single team is immune to crazy.

The last time the Mountaineers faced James Madison was fourteen years ago. It has not been that long since App State played The Citadel, but the Bulldogs had the last laugh in this series. At that time, it was unknown whether or not these teams would ever face each other again. The Mountaineers have faced Elon once since their SoCon sayonara. The Citadel remains in the SoCon, a league that really has not changed much since the Mountaineers left. Mercer is now in the SoCon, and of course, ETSU is back. The Citadel has had a couple really good years since we last saw them, but otherwise have been pretty average. More recently, they have fallen on tougher times. The fall 2021 season was highlighted with four wins, over North Greenville, VMI, Wofford and Chattanooga. The Bulldogs played 4 games in the fall of 2020, losing all of them, and played an eight game conference slate in the 2021 spring season, registering a 2-6 record.

The Citadel sports a 1-2 record coming to Boone. They were on bye last week, so the Mountaineers get consecutive opponents with an extra week of rest. You can almost say Citadel did not play the week before either, as they fell to #20 Mercer by a 17-0 score. The Bulldogs managed just 151 yards offense on 63 plays. The previous week, they hit a field goal as time expired to beat ETSU 20-17, while holding possession of the ball for nearly forty minutes and being outgained by the Buccaneers on offense. In Week 1, Campbell cruised to a 29-10 win while the Citadel gained just 222 yards on the offensive side. So, as you can see, its pretty clear that the Bulldogs have not gained a lot of yards this year. In those first three games, they average just 231 yards per game at 3.7 yards yards per play. And somehow they have still managed to average 36 minutes of possession a game.

The most interesting story coming into this game belongs to Citadel quarterback Peyton Derrick. A graduate transfer from Wofford, many will remember that Derrick began his career at App State in 2017 and he was redshirted. The following year, Derrick made a memorable throw at Penn State after Zac Thomas had to exit the game for one play. He threw a pass to Dominique Heath on 4th and 2 for 22 yards that set up a touchdown. Fast forward to 2022 and now he will face the first school he played for in college. So far this season, it has been a mixed bag Derrick. He has completed just 17 of 34 passes for 176 yards, adding a couple touchdowns and interceptions. But that is not Citadel’s game. This a triple option team, that passes to catch you off guard, although 34 passes in three games is a little more than you would expect out of a true triple option offense. Derrick has carried the ball 44 times for 96 yards on the ground. Derrick has carried the ball the most of anyone on the team, but the Bulldogs tend to spread it out quite a bit. Three other backs have rushed at least twenty-one times, but no more than twenty-nine times. The triple option remains a guessing game like it always has been.

For the last time, we’ll speak to the game last weekend, and maybe never again. It was a historic collapse. Its understandable after several hard hitting games that our beloved Mountaineers are tired. Looking for normalcy, in a game without fourth quarter heroics or sixty minutes of hell, you see moment of relief and you finally catch your breath, at halftime. That was about thirty minutes too early. Letting up is easy and continuing to fight is hard although necessary. It became a tough lesson learned that will not soon be forgotten. The Mountaineers are still capable of turning this into a great season. It’s just really tough to imagine that after last week. That’s all it is, and it can be quickly fixed. Health is a key factor. We need rest in places and we need others to step up in the meantime. Some simplification worked for the defense from Week 1 to Week 2, and maybe that is something that also needs to occur for the offense. There have just been too many scoring droughts in these opening games.

The overall theme here, is that it has been an incredibly long time since the Mountaineers have waited until the fifth game of the season to play an FCS school. And let’s not be mistaken. James Madison is not an FCS school on paper. They have been good for a long time, and just miscast in the wrong subdivision. App State was this way for a long time as well. It was not long ago that the Sun Belt was the weakest FBS conference, but in four weeks time in 2022, predictably, it has an argument for being the strongest GS conference. In reality, it has been longer than four weeks. When App State played in first Sun Belt schedule in 2014, there were adjustments, and when they were made, the Mountaineers rattled off six wins in a row to finish the season, leaving Sun Belt stalwarts such as Louisiana and Arkansas State in the dust. The Sun Belt was a bad league then. It is not a bad league now. That’s a good thing. So when conferences across the country argue about playing FCS schools, or playing an extra conference game, one wonders what they are actually looking to accomplish. Do you want FCS games to pad that win total to become bowl eligible or do you want those FCS teams actually in your conference weighing you down. Whichever direction some of these conferences plan to go, expect more chaos with tougher conferences or bloated win totals that might make you feel better about yourself than you actually are. See, the old Southern Conference was not like that. Sure you had some schools that weren’t aligned as institutions of higher learning, but you also had tough football games each week. Whether you were defending the triple option variances from Citadel, Georgia Southern, Wofford or even VMI, or the pro style offenses of Furman and Samford or the run and shoot styles that Chattanooga and Elon sometimes employed. It was different every week, and winning that conference title meant that you earned something. That is what we have now in the Sun Belt, and with that, you will have a different wild ride each and every week. So yeah, we circle back to playing a team such as The Citadel, a former conference mate, with familiarity, and they are doing essentially the same thing they have always done. The Bulldogs do not look great on a stat sheet, but that is not anything they care about. They care about giving the football players that they can recruit, the best chance to win. Forget an offense that has not scored many points. Their pressure on you, is making fewer mistakes while playing keep away. So be prepared for the keeper and the counter, the option and the pitch, and make sure you jump on that ball when it finds the turf.

The First Pick

Grays 6

Mountaineers 44

App State Football vs James Madison

Appalachian State (2-1) vs James Madison (2-0)

Saturday, September 24th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.97

JMU: 71.57

Home: 2.11

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.51 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -7

Series: App State leads 12-4

Last Meeting: James Madison 35, App State 32 September 20, 2008, Harrisburg, VA

Caught your breath yet? Maybe we can use a different lede next week. College football has been upside down through three weeks, and it seems as if App State has been in the center of it all. Forty-point fourth quarters? Check. Knocking off a top ten opponent on the road? We have that too. Winning on a hail mary touchdown pass? Why not. App State has played just three games with nearly a seasons worth of moments. What could possibly happen next? We welcome in an old rival that also plays the part of a conference newcomer. The Dukes landed in the Sun Belt East along with Old Dominion and Marshall. This will be the seventeenth meeting between the two schools and first matchup as conference opponents. Among the more recent FCS-FBS transitions, the Dukes have the pedigree, with two national championships, and a winning history. They were rumored to have declined an invitation to the Sun Belt years ago, but could not pass it up a second time. This will be the Sun Belt opener for the Dukes, and their fans could not be more excited to renew a budding rivalry.

For the Mountaineers, this will be the fourth game of the season this weekend, but the Dukes were blessed/cursed with a Week 3 bye after playing Middle Tennessee and Norfolk State at home to begin the season. Having an extra week to prepare for an opponent could turn out beneficial, but having one so early in the season might not be. This schedule is partially a result from existing contracts and changing conferences, and subdivisions with less than a year’s notice. James Madison is still in transition and will only play eleven games this year. That means a bowl game and a Sun Belt championship is not in the cards. The Dukes administration hopes to cut the transition period in half from two years to one year. In the meantime, they are playing for pride knowing that they have just the schedule in front of them to play. Transitioning is hard enough, and during the NIL and portal era, it has to be downright difficult for roster management and recruiting.

We can say that James Madison has played just two games this year, but really, it was maybe one and a half games. Against Middle Tennessee, the Dukes started somewhat slow, with a fourteen play drive to start the game that ended with a missed field goal. That drive ate up more than six minutes of game clock. They turned the ball over on their next drive, but then scored touchdowns on three of their next four drives. Those touchdown drives did not eat up a lot of clock, using less than four minutes each. The Dukes love pouncing on your defense when they think they have you on your heels. The threat of tempo exists, and when the quarterback sees something he likes, he’ll be aggressive and attack single coverage. The run-pass-option offense is still alive and well at James Madison. The Dukes worked the Middle defense early, keeping them on the field for thirty plays in their first three drives, and then sped up the pace with 29 plays on their next six drives. The defense has to stay ready for anything when the James Madison offense is on the field.

James Madison has run up the score and racked up a lot of yardage in their first two games. That includes eye-popping numbers that are likely unsustainable over the course a full season, especially when you get into conference play. Beyond outscoring their opponents 107-14, and giving up just 21 total rushing yards, the Dukes have yet to turn the ball over. Todd Centeio has been flawless at quarterback. He’s thrown for 452 yards in essentially three halves of football, completed 66% of his passes and has nine touchdown passes. He’s hard to get a hold of and will not give up sacks. He can scramble and extend plays. The main job of the defense will be to contain him in the pocket and make sure he does not get his feet set when passing. He’ll run on design plays and also bail quickly sometimes when his first read is not there. Centeio has 139 rushing yards in addition to his near perfect passing stats. His primary target has been senior Kris Thornton, who has already amassed eighteen catches in two games, along with 247 yards and five touchdowns.

At no point this past Saturday, did the Troy game feel like one that would be decided by whoever had the ball last. But that is exactly what it turned into. Each team had nine possessions. Both teams scored four touchdowns. The difference in the game was a field goal made and a safety given. Sure, that’s five points, and the final margin was four. A certain point after attempt was not necessary, nor remotely possible. In a game of who has the ball last, its best not to give the other team points. Troy punted just twice, but ultimately their opening drive interception led to App State points, they missed a field goal, and then gave up a safety. This game really came down to situational football. One play ultimately resulted in the final tally, but it was a mixture of just enough from App State that kept them within striking distance. Consider the Mountaineer defense that came through for three sacks and an interception of Gunnar Watson. On the flipside, Chase Brice was sacked once, threw two touchdown passes, and didn’t turn the ball over.

It’s fair to say, that Madison and App fans are really not quite sure what to think about their teams. And that is just fine. It’s still September. The Dukes have played two games where they thoroughly defeated their opponents. Norfolk State is 0-3 with losses to Marshall, Madison and Hampton. Middle Tennessee sports a 2-1 record, but all they have done is get spanked by JMU, and beaten two teams with 0-3 records in Colorado State and Tennessee State. Based on the App State results, a handful of plays in each game could have changed the trajectory in those contests. App’s record could be anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0, and it wouldn’t shock you. The reason why we watch, is to see if your team eventually evolves over the course of the season. Peaking in September will not do you any favors in November. Well, we also like to win. We want to feel good. James Madison also wants to feel good. They want to know that they made the right decision to enter FBS. They’ll hit some stumbling blocks. There is not a program out there that has not or will not. But they will also have those moments that validate that decision. Their schedule sets up nicely, with only five road games, but they are big ones, and every game is on Saturday. But keep an eye on a stretch of games where they are on the road four out of five weeks with a bye week sandwiched in. But this JMU team knows nothing about App State from the past. This rekindling of a predictive rivalry is among fans alone. Still, players on both sides of the ball have known nothing but winning within their program. Although Madison may have not been tested this year, they have known how to get it done for sometime. Conversely, App State has been tested several times in three games. Are we expecting a game into the fourth quarter? Is that more likely than a multiple score game going either direction? I believe so. But there is one theory at play here not many have touched on. The scoreboard said the Mountaineers scored more points last week. However, I think this team comes out and plays like they lost. Offense will be crisper and the defense will play better. That should be more than enough for a comfortable win.

The First Pick

Miracle Whip 28

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs Troy

Appalachian State (1-1) vs Troy (1-1)

Saturday, September 17th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 76.26

Troy: 59.35

Home: 2.42

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.33 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -12.5

Series: App State leads 7-2

Last Meeting: App State 45, Troy 7 November 20, 2021, Troy, AL

Caught your breath yet? Apparently, its going to be a wild season in college football. The Mountaineers have never had two such opponents to start an FBS season, and both games delivered to the fullest extent. Starting the season at 1-1, was pretty likely, but if you are going to win one of these games, beating the team with a number beside their name was probably best. It brings the higher shock value. It also helps when you have done it before and the rest of the conference joins the party. So much so, that the elite television college football pregame show decided to alter its plans and make a trip up the mountain. It will be the fourth ever visit by College Gameday to the state of North Carolina. With the win, and the attention, come distractions. Suddenly your normal week of work is interrupted by additional interview requests and the like. This will all wash away one day, and enjoying those moments are precious. But the task at hand is a conference opponent, and the outcome is what this team plays for. There were no rings or trophies handed out last week. That time will come later. The present time is all about Troy, and going 1-0 this week.

The Trojans will head to Boone with a new head coach in Jon Sumrall, who is in his first year as a head coach. He is an Alabama native and previously spent time on Troy’s staff from 2015-2017. Sumrall’s background is on the defensive side of the ball, beginning where he played inside linebacker at Kentucky, and throughout his other coaching stops at San Diego, Tulane, and Ole Miss. Sumrall was the co-defensive coordinator at Kentucky in 2021. He was supposedly a candidate when Chip Lindsey was hired in 2019, and the Trojans went back to the drawing board after just three seasons. The results for Troy have gone just about as expected at this point in the season. They lost to Ole Miss 28-10 and defeated Alabama A&M 38-17. You have to be careful when looking at their team statistics thus far. It appears they struggle to run the ball, but they have given up six sacks in these two games. Those sacks count as negative rushing yards against their team total. When taking those numbers out, its actually worse. We’ll dig a little more on that later, but consider, their longest running play of the season is just 14 yards.

Troy and App State faced off late last year, and it feels like these teams just played. That game was a dominating Mountaineer win. App State led 10-7 at halftime, but turned it on in the second half with five touchdowns and never looked back. Troy managed just six first downs in the game, and the Mountaineers limited Troy to just 33 rushing yards. The Trojans were 5-4 after nine games last year, and had an outside chance of making a bowl game, but they dropped their last three games to Louisiana, App State and Georgia State. Surprisingly, Troy retained a lot of their players from last season. Star linebacker Carlton Martial returned for his fifth year coming off three straight years as an All-Sun Belt first team performer. Gunnar Watson is also back at quarterback, which might be the biggest surprise of all. Watson is a fifth year junior, who is in his third year as a starter. Running backs DK Bllingsley, Kimani Vidal and Jamontez Woods have also returned. Typically with a coaching change you might see a lot of roster turnover, but its interesting that Troy kept a lot of key players around.

As mentioned previously, Troy’s offense appears somewhat one-dimensional after two games. We’ll just focus on the three Trojan running backs who have handled the ball the most. Kimani Vidal has 22 carries for 86 yards (3.9 ypc). Jamontez Woods has 12 carries for 33 yards (2.8 ypc). Finally, DK Billinglsey has carried the ball seven times for 39 yards. The trio combined for 967 yards last year with a good chunk coming from Vidal, but he is off to a slow start. It seems that Troy may want to become a running football team, which is certainly a change from the past few years, but they are having a difficult time adjusting on the offensive line. In the meantime, Gunnar Watson has been slinging the ball over the field in the first two weeks. He has thrown for 626 yards this season, after throwing for just 1,613 yards in eight games in 2021. All of Troy’s touchdowns have came in the air in 2022, with Watson accounting for five of those scoring passes. Backup Jarret Doege threw for the other in cleanup time against Alabama A&M. Already, fourteen players have caught passes from the Troy quarterbacks. The six touchdown passes have been spread across five different pass catchers. Last years leading receiver Tez Johnson has only caught two passes to start the season after catching 67 passes a year ago. Johnson has battled injuries in fall camp.

Games like last Saturday are fun. As a fan watching in person, or time zones away, the longer an underdog sticks around, it becomes more captivating. Your expectations change with each first down. It was a game where you clapped after the first quarter with the game in a scoreless tie. You pace at halftime as it remained tied, and could hardly sit down as the score remained knotted up after three quarters. Hanging around is easy, but hanging on is the hard part. The win over Texas A&M, excuse me, then #6 ranked Texas A&M may go down as the gutsiest win in school history. At no point was it pretty. It was calculated domination. A box score to remember for a lack of production. A defense that responded to a less than stellar effort by creating just enough havoc in the form of turnovers and sacks. Maybe the best game of keep away ever played. The Mountaineers held the ball for 9 minutes or more in each quarter. The Aggies had the ball on offense three times in the second half, and their possessions resulted in a fumble, punt and missed field goal. Ultimately, the game was decided by an eighteen play drive by the Mountaineers, that consumed more precious clock than yards, and ended with a field goal made by a kicker who had yet to make one.

Last week is the past. It’s all for nothing if the Mountaineers do not take care of business this week. Notably, the vibe on campus has been different since Saturday. Everyone knows something is coming that usually isn’t here and may never come back. The events of fifteen years ago carried a program into FBS football, and although the Texas A&M win might not have the same effect, the aftershocks will be felt for a significant amount of time. In the meantime, a ring game is in front of us. Troy players have made it clear in media appearances of their intent to beat App State. Troy has sustained some injuries to key defensive players and they hope to have them back for this game. The Mountaineers have also had some injuries, but expect everyone to be available on Saturday as well. App State smothered Troy last year in the second half. The time of possession battle was won by the Mountaineers significantly, even more than it was last week against Texas A&M. Gunnar Watson could only manage 109 passing yards against the Mountaineers, while throwing an interception. It was another example of the opposing team simply not having the ball and not finding a rhythm. Again, the Troy ground attack accumulated 33 net yards. They were never in it. Troy has not shown it has improved much offensively. This years passing figures are due to game script and opponent. They trailed Ole Miss 21-3 at the half and threw the ball 47 times. After leading 7-3 at halftime to Alabama A&M, Troy decided to distance themselves, and scored three touchdowns in the third quarter, almost exclusively in the air. Even with the game in hand, Troy continued to throw the ball with Jarret Doege. Without a running game, Troy could struggle, considering they have converted just 35% of their third downs in their first two games and converting just three of seven red zone drives into touchdowns. Additionally, with five turnovers already on offense, and five rushing touchdowns allowed on defense, Troy is going to need to play much better than they have thus far to hang. I’ll take the Mountaineers in a rather low scoring affair.

The First Pick

Boys of Troy 14

Mountaineers 31

App State Football @ #6 Texas A&M

Appalachian State (0-1) @ #6 Texas A&M (1-0)

Saturday, September 10th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN2

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kyle Field

Capacity: 102,733

Surface: Natural Grass (Bermuda 36)

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.96

Texas A&M: 87.10

Home: 2.14

Texas A&M is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 15.28 points

VegasInsider Line: Texas A&M -17

Series: First meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Hopefully by now, everyone has caught their breath, recovered, processed, and everything in between, one of the wildest football games they have seen. The longer you have been an App State fan, its even wilder to think about. We have seen plenty of memorable games over the years and decades, and no matter how long your fandom has lasted, the memory of 63-61 will not soon be forgotten. However, moral victories and second place does not exist on the mountain, and the season moves on. The next opponent comes from the most powerful league in college sports. Texas A&M has one of the largest stadiums by listed capacity in the country, and people actually show up and show out in College Station. It is an intimidating venue, sandwiched between every major city in Texas, where football is king. That is exactly the kind of program that Appalachian State wants to play. To push yourself to be your best, you have to put yourself in uncomfortable situations and challenge yourself. Whether a game like this occurs in Week 1, Week 2, after an open week, or after playing another P5 game, playing the best only makes you better, win or lose. I fully expect our Mountaineers to answer that call.

Aggie coach Jimbo Fisher was baited into a war of words this offseason with the one and only Nick Saban. That would be the coach of Alabama, who have won six national championships since 2009. For reasons unknown, Saban said that Texas A&M “bought all their players in their recruiting class with name, image and likeness deals”. Jimbo Fisher did not take kindly to those remarks and responded appropriately. That was in May. A month later the two somewhat agreed, it was time to “shut up and play”. That was a fun month. Fisher was incredibly complimentary of the Mountaineers in one of his weekly press conferences. This has become the expectation year after year when App State faces a Power 5 opponent. Those press conferences are made for the media, and when a media member mispronounced Appalachian on Monday, Fisher came out firing. He said that App State can play in our (SEC) league or any league. After mentioning several players and their strengths, he went on to say, that Appalachian State is an excellent, excellent football team that can play on both sides of the ball against anyone.

The Aggies took care of business in their opener, disposing of FCS/CUSA opponent Sam Houston State by a tidy 31-0 score. This was the third straight game at Kyle Field that the Aggies did not allow a touchdown by their opponent, which included a 52-3 score over Prairie View A&M and a 20-3 win over then #12 Auburn last season. The Sam Houston game was interrupted for nearly three hours before the start of the third quarter due to a weather delay. Texas A&M was 6-1 in home games last year, but 6-0 at Kyle Field. That one loss was to Arkansas, a game that was played in Arlington. The Aggies last true home losses were in 2019 to #8 Auburn and #1 Alabama. In 2021, Texas A&M finished the year 8-4, which included the aforementioned loss to Arkansas, and three road losses to Mississippi State, Ole Miss and LSU. The Aggies were selected to participate in the Gator Bowl against Wake Forest at the end of the 2021 season, but decided against playing due to the pandemic and injuries.

Third-year sophomore quarterback Haynes King is the leader of the Aggie offense. King played in a couple games of garbage time in 2020, was named the starter in 2021, but suffered a season-ending injury in the second game. So the game against Sam Houston State last Saturday was his third career start and just his fifth appearance as an Aggie. In limited action, if we can call it that, he has completed 63% of his passes over his career for for 723 yards. He has tossed six touchdown passes, but also six interceptions. Five of those interceptions were thrown against the likes of Kent State and Sam Houston State. The Aggies won those games handily, but those are interesting numbers. Devon Achane was the feature back of the Aggies last week, garnering 18 carries for 42 yards. That is a far cry from his 8.3 yard per carry average in 2020 and his 7.0 yard per carry average in 2021. Achane also serves A&M on the kickoff return team. Leading receiver Ainais Smith had a big game last week with 6 catches, 164 yards and two scores. Smith has posted 40+ receptions, 500+ yards and 6 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons.

As one should have expected, the debut of offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay unleashed a blend of a Shawn Clark led attack along with a dash of Barbay’s own touches. Eight players were responsible for the nine touchdowns that were scored. Only Nate Noel found the paint twice. Two different tight ends scored along with four different wide receivers. Henry Pearson caught eleven passes all of the 2021 season, yet caught four balls on Saturday. Dashaun Davis paced the Mountaineers with six catches for 72 yards, which led the team in both categories, yet still there was plenty more ball for Chase Brice to spread around. Noel carried the ball 14 times and Camerun Peoples received 13 carries. Anderson Castle lined up behind center and barreled for two yards and a first down. Even Daetrich Harrington showed some juice that looked more like his start to the 2020 season. Everyone got in on the action. However, most of the gaudy numbers were brought on by a fourth quarter unlike any have ever witnessed.

Let’s get this straight here. This past game is not about figuring out how to win in the end, as much as it is about avoiding getting in a scenario where that fourth quarter was necessary. This all comes down to learning how to avoid giving up 41 points after three quarters and not allowing any team to score 34 unanswered points. Those middle quarters is what put the Mountaineers in that position. We all know that. Everyone involved. It’s possible that North Carolina has an elite offense, and we’ll know more about that as the season goes along. Once again, that was not a typical App State defense we are used to seeing. It will get better, and probably sooner than later. Texas A&M is probably guessing the same, and they also want to improve what they were able to get out of their offense as well. The Aggies ran 67 plays and scratched out 497 yards for a 7.4 yard per play average. Three of the their scoring plays, all touchdown passes, went for 66, 63 and 43 yards. If you take those three plays out of the equation, the Aggies remaining 64 plays went for 325 yards, which brings down that average to 5.1 yards per play. That’s a pretty big falloff to take just three plays out of the formula. So yeah, it would seem that stopping those huge plays would be what the Mountaineers need to focus on. They gave up 8.0 yards per play on Saturday. That number has to come down, and quickly. If the A&M offense is too dependent on big plays and the Mountaineers can make dome drastic improvements in the open field, then its possible we have another game in the fourth quarter. The tendencies of Haynes King are concerning. He comes across as being overly aggressive and not taking the play that is given to him. He’ll force a throw or two, and his offensive line is learning how to play a bunch of different positions. It’s more than being mistake prone, and borderline reckless. He trusts his arm way too much to bail himself out of a bad read. Backup quarterback Max Johnson transferred over from LSU because he felt there was opportunity to play. I think it is possible he starts at some point this season. The opportunity is the reason why the Mountaineers are making this trip. To prove they belong. Jimbo Fisher’s compliments aside, App State looks forward to these type of games. The track record says it all. One day, that next “upset” will happen. It could be Saturday, or next year. What we do know, is that this team will make us proud, and they will refuse to quit. The opportunity to showcase your talents only happens so many times. Might as well do it now.

The First Pick

Twelfth Men 31

Mountaineers 26