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App State Football @ Georgia Southern

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Appalachian State (5-5, 3-4) @ Georgia Southern (7-4, 5-2)

Saturday, November 30th, 2024 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Paulson Stadium

Capacity: 25,000

Surface: FieldTurf Vertex Prestige

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 65.59

Georgia Southern: 66.64

Home: 3.26

Georgia Southern is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4.31 points

VegasInsider Line: Georgia Southern -2.5

Series: App State leads 21-16-1

Last Meeting: App State 55, Georgia Southern, 27 November 25, 2023, Boone, NC

Here we are again. We have come to the point in the season when both sides have something to play for, and neither would like nothing more than to kill any hopes the other side has. It’s Georgia Southern week and nothing will make your skin crawl on either side quite like thinking about the other team. Both sides realize what is at stake. The Eagles need a win and some help from James Madison, who was just knocked out of Sun Belt contention after falling to our Mountaineers last weekend. On the other other hand, for App State, after an up and down season, there is still one more opportunity to salvage a season with a sixth win and bowl eligibility. But most of those possibilities are nothing but talk when it comes to these two schools. Not a single player will be thinking about championship games or bowl games. The only thing on anyone’s mind will be winning that day, because when it comes to App State and Georgia Southern, winning that game is the only thing that matters.

The Eagles have had a pretty ho-hum season to date. There is not a lot that stands out as for as results are concerned, but there are a couple games that have are noteworthy if you have not paid attention. Everyone remembers the shootout against Boise State to start the season where Bronco running back and Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty broke out for 267 yards and six touchdowns. The best stretch of the of the Eagles season came when they won three straight games over a four week span in what was essentially three home games, playing Georgia State in Atlanta, and defeating Marshall and James Madison in back to back weeks in Statesboro. Southern overcame at 23-3 deficit to Marshall, all in the last ten minutes of the fourth quarter to steal one from the Herd. They followed that with a convincing 28-14 win over the Dukes in which they never trailed. Southern then went on the road to Old Dominion and were beaten soundly on the Thursday following the JMU win. The next week, another miracle happened, as Southern scored 20 unanswered in the fourth quarter to come back and beat South Alabama 34-30 in Mobile. Southern’s record could easily be 5-6 if it were not for those two improbable fourth quarter rallies.

Georgia Southern’s offense is predominantly a high volume passing attack, but not a highly efficient one. They rank fifth in the conference with 246.6 passing yards a game, but are only ninth in the fourteen team Sun Belt in yards per attempt. They do a lot of work between the 20’s in the passing game, but once they get into the red zone, they have 17 rushing touchdowns to only 10 passing touchdowns. JC French has been the primary quarterback for Southern this season, tossing for 2,453 yards, 15 TD’s and seven interceptions. French played sparingly against App State last season in Boone, mainly in mop-up duty, but did throw a 25-yard touchdown pass in those limited minutes. French had big games this season against Boise, where he threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Against Coastal last week, he threw for his second highest total of the season with 294 yards. He had three touchdown passes against James Madison, but also threw a season high three interceptions in the same game.

Last weekend had just about everything you can ask for going on outside of the football game. The James Madison game had previously been scheduled for Black Saturday, and Senior Day, and due to the Liberty game being cancelled due to Hurricane Helene, Homecoming festivities were added to a busy Saturday. On top of that, the High Country welcomed another kind of storm on Friday, as snow showers fell most of the day and into Saturday morning. Former professional football player Jason Kelce also dropped by and visited various tailgates, and spent time with both the radio and streaming broadcasts. So if that was not a busy enough day, the Mountaineers played one of the better games of the season, forcing two big turnovers against the Dukes, one being a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown, and the Mountaineers were not flagged for a penalty the entire game. Wide receiver Makai Jackson had a huge day with five catches for 162 yards and a touchdown, while Ahmani Marshall plowed his way toward another 100-yard performance on twenty-four carries. With the win, App State knocked the Dukes out the Sun Belt championship “contention” for the second straight year.

So it all comes down to this. One game for the hope of playing another. It’s a playoff type mindset heading into this final game of the regular season. Hopefully, if the Mountaineers win, there will be room at the table for another team in bowl season. The bowl committees will not have to reach past the 6-6 teams to fill spots this season, so there is a chance the Mountaineers could be left out even with a win. So what’s the plan? Play this one like it is your last. Hurricane Helene will always be a part of the story of the 2024 season. It changed our mountains, but it did not change who we are. Once this program was past the immediate danger of the storm, the identity of this team was restored. It may have taken some time to find their footing, but wins in three of the last five games cannot be ignored. The Mountaineers have played well enough in those three games they won, all at home, to keep the season alive. However they will still have to overcome to problems that have plagued them on the road all season long. The Mountaineers have not scored first in a road game this season. Their turnover margin in these road games is -12. Negative 12. App State was able to snag a win over East Carolina with a -1 margin, but in the other four games, the margin was -2 or worse, and they lost by 10 or more points in each game. Take care of the ball. The Mountaineers were able to play keep away against James Madison, who was the most opportunistic turnover team in the country going into last week. Georgia Southern has a +1 margin on the season, which is middle of the pack in all the land. Moving on, you may have noticed that Georgia Southern’s pass defense is a bottom fifteen unit in the country in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Eagles have allowed 200 or more yards passing in eight of their eleven games, and 270 or more yards in seven games. It’s been an issue for them all season. Meanwhile, Southern has also not been great at stopping the run this season, and have given up 189 yards rushing per game over the last four games. On the other side, Southern has not been great running the ball this season, averaging just 117 yards per game, but could that be a strength for them on Saturday, especially with colder temperatures expected? The Eagles played in 60 degree and sunny conditions last weekend in Conway, so it’s possible that intangible could swing in favor of the away team. All the stats are fun to look at and think about, but in this game, as it always has, it will come down to who wants it more. Both sides have something to play for, which sets this game up as a potential classic.

The First Pick

Gnatsboro 30

Mountaineers 37

App State Football vs James Madison

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Appalachian State (4-5, 2-4) vs James Madison (8-2, 4-2)

Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 63.02

James Madison: 72.23

Home: 3.12

James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 6.09 points

VegasInsider Line: James Madison -7

Series: App State leads 13-5

Last Meeting: App State 26, James Madison, 23 November 18, 2023, Harrisonburg, VA

Now, with just two games remaining in the regular season, the Mountaineers are firmly backed up against the wall. If they want to play another game beyond this weekend and next, they have to win both games. And what two better opponents to play, then against two teams who have provided some surprising results of late. We all know how you can toss out the records when the Mountaineers and Eagles play. And the last couple seasons have provided exciting games between App State and James Madison. In 2022, the Mountaineers had no business losing that game, giving up a huge first half lead after one of the most controversial non-calls by an officiating group that I have ever seen. And then again in 2023, James Madison was likely the better team, but it was App State that led the entire game, until the Dukes improbably forced overtime before the Mountaineers walked them off. Some schools want to manufacture a rivalry. When it comes to App State and James Madison, you let the games speak for themselves.

James Madison has had a very solid season to date. A lot of teams will take an 8-2 record at this point in the season. The Dukes are also still in contention for a championship game berth, but they need to take care of business these next two weeks to give themselves a chance, and also get some help from the Mountaineers next weekend. James Madison currently sits third in the division, behind Georgia Southern due to a tiebreaker that was decided in a head-to-head matchup that the Eagles won 28-14. Marshall sits atop the division with a 5-1 conference record, and James Madison will host the Herd next weekend. The Dukes are fresh off a win over Old Dominion in Norfolk in which they had to rally in the second half after facing a three point deficit at halftime. The Dukes and Monarchs have played tight games in each of the last two seasons, both decided by three points and won by the Dukes.

After last season, when Curt Cignetti jumped to Indiana, he took a lot of help with him to Bloomington. After the fallout, Jordan McCloud went to play for Texas State and Tino Sunseri, the James Madison quarterbacks coach followed Cignetti. Bryant Haines served as JMU’s linebacker’s coach from 2019-2023 and also hitched a ride with Sunseri to Indiana. However, when Bob Chesney was hired away from Holy Cross, the cupboard was not completely bare at James Madison. An additional fourteen players from Madison also made the leap. They have plenty depth to contend in the Sun Belt, but they have taken a small step backwards from 2023. That makes the Dukes an easy target. There will always be some type of fallout when a program reaches peak national exposure with a College Gameday appearance, and then does not deliver in the following games with the expectations that are sky high. After James Madison lost to App State last year, they destroyed Coastal, but the staff exodus occurred prior to their bowl loss to Air Force.

I mentioned earlier this season how I hate discussing old box scores from what seems like weeks ago. We are long past a game from November 7th which resulted in the same inconsistencies that have led to many other losses this season. But that loss to Coastal fell firmly in the category of getting too cute when it was unnecessary. A naked bootleg on a 1st and Goal situation from the five yard line is getting too cute. It’s especially getting too cute when you have run the ball five times for 39 yards to get down the field. And when you play a team like Coastal, you cannot give them any indication that you have lost momentum. They love playing with the lead. A turnover after going down 7-0 takes away any type of game plan that was in place. Coastal went on to score on that drive, and suddenly the Mountaineers were down 14-0 with no hope of a comeback.

The inconsistencies of this Mountaineer group is probably the most frustrating part of being a fan. It does not feel like its been this way ever before. Making light of injury concerns is valid, but sometimes does not pass the smell test to the casual fan. It does not hurt that the majority of the injuries have come on one side of the ball that does not share the same limelight as the offensive side. And then that happened last week when the Mountaineers lost Kaedin Robinson, one of the more valuable offensive threats. His last play of his college career was a meaningless touchdown, which sort of feels like how this season has gone. A step forward and two steps back. James Madison has also lost players due to injury at the running back spot, but still they remain in a conference title hunt. Madison has a balanced offense, and that balance is one reason why they are very good. But when they have struggled in games this season, it has been noticeable from the start. On the road at Georgia Southern in October, the Dukes were only able to muster 67 yards on the ground, which was a season low. Southern has been giving up yards all season long on the ground, ranking 103rd in the country, and 8th out of fourteen teams in the Sun Belt. So, there is hope? James Madison’s second worst rushing game of the season also occurred on the road at UL-Monroe. They ran for 148 yards. In both games, the Dukes were held to under 20 points. There are a couple nuggets here, in that James Madison is 3-0 on the road in games played in North Carolina and Virginia, with shorter travel itinerary, while they are 0-2 with longer travel. James Madison also does an excellent job on the turnover front. They are the best team in the country in turnover margin at +1.9 per game. The difference between James Madison and the second best team Notre Dame is +.4. That is absurd. So clearly, a team like Appalachian which has thrown 14 interceptions on the year, and James Madison which has intercepted 17 passes and returned four for touchdowns, is a problem. There is no way Appalachian has a chance to win this game if they turn the ball over like they have all season long. The Mountaineers have to have the right combination of smart play calling and smart play to come out on top on Saturday.

The First Pick

Furple Dogs 27

Mountaineers 30

App State Football @ Coastal Carolina

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Appalachian State (4-4, 2-3) @ Coastal Carolina (4-4, 1-3)

Thursday, November 7th, 2024 8:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 65.00

Coastal Carolina: 60.73

Home: 3.28

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .99 points

VegasInsider Line: Coastal Carolina -1.5

Series: App State leads 7-3

Last Meeting: App State 24, Coastal Carolina 27 October 10, 2023, Boone, NC

Heading to the final month of the regular season, App State is on the last leg of three games in a thirteen day stretch. The trip to the outskirts of the South Carolina coastline serves as a quick reminder of how brutal Sun Belt scheduling can be. The Mountaineers have gotten up off the mat after a tough stretch of games, and it suddenly feels like a brand new season. It might feel like its hard to start from scratch, but we have to remember that college football is not a season that lasts a couple of months. It’s a twelve month calendar. You are constantly building toward your common goal and each week gives you another opportunity. Both teams in this matchup this week have the same overall records, but are heading opposite directions. Coastal has been hurting for several weeks, trying to find their late summer identity. The problem is that only the snowbirds come to the beach this time of the year.

The Chanticleers had a quick start to the season but have since cooled dramatically. After getting wins in their first three contests, the Chants have lost four of five. Some might have been perplexed as Coastal got to the meat of their schedule, and losses to Virginia, Louisiana and James Madison are not at all surprising. Virginia, being from a power conference, beat up the Chants pretty good, and Louisiana has proven to be a tough matchup for anyone. James Madison has had their ups and down, but handily won by a 39-7 margin. Last week might have been the true sound the alarm moment. Troy took it to the Chants. Previously with one win against Florida A&M, Troy ran it all over Coastal. The Trojans ran for 342 yards on the ground, by far a season high, and the second highest total Coastal had surrendered all season. It was the fourth time in the last five games that Coastal had allowed an opponent to eclipse 200 yards on the ground. The only team in that stretch who did not surpass 200 yards rushing, was Louisiana, who passed for 373 yards on the Chant defense.

Ethan Vasko has been the primary starting quarterback for Coastal, although he has battled through some inconsistencies this season. Vasko played in the entirety of the win over Old Dominion, back on October 5th, but was replaced in the Louisiana and James Madison games. Against James Madison, Vasko completed just five of his eighteen pass attempts for 84 yards. He did throw one touchdown pass, but also added two interceptions. He was replaced for a second time in consecutive weeks against Louisiana, where he completed just three of his ten passes for 10 yards. In both games, Noah Kim, formerly of Michigan State, stepped in and played pretty well, yet it was Vasko who took all the snaps in the loss to Troy. There does not appear to be a controversy, but if Vasko starts poorly, you could see an early hook from head coach Tim Beck, who is now calling the plays after firing his offensive coordinator a couple weeks back.

I do believe it is fair to give some appropriate props to the defensive side of the ball this week. One might glance at the total yards the defense gave up and think, that’s not good enough, and that is a fair statement. But the name of the game in all sports, score more than the other team. A lot of the Old Dominion drives were empty. They did not result in points, and four of their drives resulted in turnovers. Those yards do not matter after sixty minutes. Old Dominion dominated the possession game in the first three quarters, yet only held the ball for just over three minutes in the final frame. When things got tough, the Mountaineers engineered two long drives, kept the ball out of the Monarchs hands, and also provided the final margin. It all comes down to another week of football that isn’t pretty, but it’s winning football. Ahmani Marshall had 120 yards on another career day in which he carried the ball 23 times. Fifty-one of Marshall’s yards came in a grind it out fashion in the fourth quarter.

The last two weeks for the Mountaineers have been about making the right stops at the right time on defense, and running the ball well enough for the past three weeks to give them a fighting chance. Turnovers clearly sidetracked them in the Louisiana game, but we have seen the same blueprint for a couple weeks that limits opponents possessions. That is usually the type of games that unfold between Coastal and App State. Possession being a premium, and when you have it, take care of it, move the ball, and score. Last week Coastal scored 24 points against a Troy defense that many would consider average for the Sun Belt. Of the three touchdowns that Coastal scored, they were gifted two possessions deep in Troy territory. Coastal blocked a punt in the first quarter and scored on the next play to tie the game at 7-7. That was a one play drive that covered 11 yards, which was their only touchdown in the first half. Coastal opened the third quarter with a long drive that ended in a field goal, and then recovered a Troy fumble on the kickoff return at the 21 yard line. Coastal scored two plays later on a 21-yard run by Braydon Bennett. Another short field, another touchdown. The other Coastal touchdown came on a 38-yard TD pass on 4th down and 22.The short of it is, that Coastal scored three touchdowns on three drives that had a lot of once-in-a-season type plays involved, and they still got beat handily by a team that was previously 1-7. I realize we are putting a lot of stock in one game, but it just goes to show you the inconsistencies of this Coastal offense, along with Ethan Vasko being replaced in a couple games in the past month. Less stock might be put into those past few results if these teams were playing against each other on extra rest, but this is a short week, and there is only so much game planning, and time to recover that can be done after a team runs for 342 yards on your defense on 55 attempts. Back to the defensive side of the ball for the Mountaineers. It all comes down to getting stops, as Coastal is among the bottom third of the league in offensive first downs and third down conversions. Nothing demoralizes a struggling offense more than being forced to punt the ball. Finally, the opportunities will be there for the App State run game to continue to better themselves. Coastal’s defense has only intercepted four passes this season and are currently on a three game interception skid while allowing over 421 yards in each of their last five games, and 500 or more yards in three of their last five games.

The First Pick

Bluish Chickens 29

Mountaineers 34

App State Football vs Old Dominion

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Appalachian State (3-4, 1-3) vs Old Dominion (4-4, 3-1)

Saturday, November 2nd, 2024 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 63.27

Old Dominion: 67.83

Home: 3.18

Old Dominion is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.38 points

VegasInsider Line: Old Dominion -2.5

Series: App State leads 3-1

Last Meeting: App State 21, Old Dominion 28 October 21, 2023, Norfolk, Va

Quickly, we are back at The Rock for another home game, and for the second week in a row the stakes are just as big as they were last week. To keep any slim hopes in the conference title hunt, the Mountaineers are faced with one goal. Win the week. They will face an Old Dominion team that could not be any hotter than they have been in some time. As the calendar turns into the month of November, coaches and players often say one thing. This is where you are remembered. The Mountaineers have one option, and that is to win. After an up and down season, and a tumultuous last several weeks, the goal is that simple. Go win. Try and set aside what you have been through, or whose services you are without. If you are wearing pads, you are lucky enough, and you have the chance to help your team. Need a leading running back to block a punt? Go do it. Need a reserve kicker to make a special teams tackle. Go do it. This past weekend reminded me of a former starting quarterback, who lost his job, and then started weeks later in the defensive backfield. He didn’t pout about his situation. He remained committed to his team. He went and did it.

Old Dominion remains one of the most mysterious teams in the Sun Belt. Week in and out, you might not know which team will show up, or what surprises they may make across the conference landscape. Despite starting the season with three losses, the Monarchs have turned some heads the last couple weeks with home wins over Texas State and Georgia Southern. Never underestimate the power of a long travel day in the Sun Belt. San Marcos to Norfolk is well over a 1500 mile trip, the longest trip in the conference by far, featuring the team who is situated the furthest west, and its easternmost team. Old Dominion then caught Georgia Southern on a short week, and perhaps after a hangover from beating James Madison and a come from behind win over Marshall the prior week. This week, the Monarchs hit the road to Boone, where they have never won in two attempts. Old Dominion has road wins this season at Bowling Green and Georgia State, both games decided by a touchdown or less.

The Monarchs have been energized by the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Joseph Colton, who lit up Georgia Southern last week in his best game of the season. Joseph threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns and complimented his aerial attack with another 69 yards on the ground. Previously this season, he was a bigger threat running the ball, as he has eclipsed 65 yards rushing or more in five games. The 304 yard performance against the Eagles gives him 875 yards on the season, to go along with being the teams second leading rusher with 412 yards on the ground. The 47 point outburst by the Monarch offense was boosted by a +2 in the turnover margin and by possessing the ball for nearly 35 minutes for the game, both numbers that represent a season high. Outside of last week, the Monarchs had only cracked the 30-point threshold in two other games, a squeaker over Bowling Green in a 30-27 win, and a 37-45 loss to Coastal Carolina.

At this point in a season, you take what you can get. Overall, the win over Georgia State was not pretty, but the final score was needed in a bad way. From here you can build on things that worked and continue to work toward a finished product. It’s a lot easier to watch film after a win than a loss. For the first time all season, Joey Aguilar did not need to throw more than 30 passes in a game, much less a win. That’s a good thing. He posted his second highest completion percentage of the year and most importantly, failed to turn the ball over for the first time in four games. The running game found a groove as well. The last three games provided the best three game stretch of the season as far as total yardage is concerned. For the first time this year, it was Ahmani Marshall who carried for a season high 18 times, and turned in a 115-yard performance to lead the Mountaineers. Kayne Roberts was held to 38 yards but still carried the ball thirteen times. Kaedin Robinson turned a 121-yard effort, which included a season long 50-yard reception, but has still failed to see the end zone after seven games.

Off the top, it’s still tough to imagine any App State football team being an underdog at home, even if by the slimmest of margins. And maybe the more difficult part to digest from a distance is an App State team being spotted points to a team with a 4-4 record. However, that’s what ODU does. They play tough games at beginning of their schedule to prepare them for conference games. They want to improve as the season progresses. Forget the reasons why a team is 4-4 and how they got there, and focus on what they are doing right now. Nobody will remember why ODU won three games in a row six months from now, they’ll just remember that they did. So when a program like Old Dominion, wins a few games in a row, people notice, and that’s exactly why they are favored this weekend. The last such streak for the Monarchs came in 2021, when they won five games consecutively against Louisiana Tech, FIU, FAU, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. The explosion of points last week by Old Dominion is the kind of stuff that strikes fear in the opponents eyes. It’s similar to thinking that they finally put it all together. Besides the Coastal game, this point total is a little bit of an outlier. The Monarchs played from behind in that one but could not catch up. The Georgia Southern defense can give up chunk yards, and a high rate of third down conversions, and that showed last Thursday. This might sound crazy, so I’ll whisper. I think App State’s defense has played better situationally as of late. The Eagles were stunned offensively, and had to abandon the run game, something that they weren’t especially good at in the first place. And once a team like Old Dominion finds a way to expose you, they will keep going back to those same plays until you figure it out. They are unafraid to run the same concepts over and over. I would expect a similar run/pass ratio for the Mountaineers that they had last week. They were successful enough running the ball and Joey Aguilar took care of the football and found open options better than he has all year. Taking care of the football is a must, in what I call a 50/50 game. This one all depends on who has the ball at the right time and has the fewest unforced errors throughout. Don’t get caught committing a pre-snap penalty on a medium to short yardage situation that gives the other team an easier down and distance. Clearly, stay away from personal fouls after a big play that can flip the field and momentum to the other side. Give yourself a chance to play another down, by simply accepting your losses, and avoiding turnovers. If the Mountaineers can play their game, they will win. Just go do it.

The First Pick

Blue Lions 27

Mountaineers 35

Appalachian Football vs Georgia State

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Appalachian State (2-4, 0-3) vs Georgia State (2-4, 0-3)

Saturday, October 26th, 2024 1:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.37

Georgia State: 57.69

Home: 2.69

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.37 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -7.5

Series: App State leads 10-0

Last Meeting: App State 42, Georgia State 14 November 11, 2023, Atlanta, GA

This has been a long time coming. Maybe it’s only been 37 days since the Mountaineers have played at home, but it’s also been 56 days since they have played at home on a Saturday. It feels like an eternity, because it has been. This weekend is the last Saturday of October. The Mountaineers have not played here on a Saturday since August. We know it’s always a treat to play at home due to everything that comes with it. And although this weekend might not mimic what most of us are used to, it will be enough to get us by. We all know why. There is no secret here. The Mountaineers record is hard to look at. We know what might come with that. It’s possible the crowd is less interested or less present. We also know that this weekend was supposed to be homecoming. A crowd where some folks make their only pilgrimage of the season. And a crowd that simply cannot be supported by the infrastructure that surrounds these mountains we all love. We’ll miss those that have been forced to stay home. We’ll catch you next time. For those that can make it, we are ready to see you. It’s been too long.

The Panthers of Georgia State are taking their lumps this season in conference play, and are adjusting to first year head coach Dell McGee. As with any coaching turnover nowadays, it also comes with a roster purge, lots of transfer additions and subtractions, which results in a fresh start for many. Of course, this is the third Georgia State head coach that App State will see since they have begun play in the Sun Belt. Neither Trent Miles or Sean Elliott fared well, having lost all ten games in the series. Until that changes, which is hopefully no time soon, it will remain a talking point. The first six games of the season for the Panthers have not really been surprising to this point. Oddly, the first five games of the season were played in Atlanta. That included a road game, down the street at Georgia Tech, and then four straight home games at Center Parc Credit Union Stadium. Last Thursday’s loss at Marshall was the first true road game of the season, which leads the Panthers to this weekend; their first Saturday road game outside of the city of Atlanta this season.

Georgia State’s two wins came over FCS Chattanooga and Vanderbilt. One of those games is unlike the other. An FCS win should be expected. A win over Vanderbilt is not a complete surprise, but this is a new Vanderbilt. This is now a ranked Vanderbilt team with a win over Alabama. The timing could have not been more odd. After Georgia State beat Vanderbilt at home, the Commodores went home the following week and beat the Crimson Tide. If that does not tell you how wild college football has been this year, I am not sure what does. The most recent Georgia State games were closer than most others. Despite losing by two touchdowns to Marshall, the Panthers drove the length of the field in the fourth quarter before failing to convert deep in Marshall territory. The Herd scored on an 88-yard rushing touchdown on the next play for the final margin. The Old Dominion game was the exact opposite. A late Panther touchdown brought the final margin to seven points while the Monarchs ran out the final two minutes of clock.

One of these my least favorite parts of doing this is rehashing games after a loss. When midweek games became a thing, it felt like it elongated that process. It’s a wonder what a couple days will do to you. Even worse? Coming off a loss after a traditional bye week. It feels like its been so long since we played Louisiana. We did play better in some aspects of the game compared to the week before against Marshall. But, the sentiment is that we took a step forward and took a couple steps back. For instance Kayne Roberts had arguably one of his best games as a Mountaineer, while Joey Aguilar had his worst. In a season where nothing seems to be going right, the margin of error is razor thin. So when you lose the turnover battle by four, and lose by ten points on the road, it’s not hard to diagnose the issue for a particular game. The results are team-driven. There are eleven players on the field at all times and not all interceptions can be blamed on the guy throwing them. However, when they occur in that frequency, you can’t help but wonder.

Considering what they have gone through, Georgia State has been really close this year to winning a couple games. They have been in one possession games late into the second half, but have just failed to make that play or two that gets them over the hump. Statistically, they are a middle of the road team. They have some offense, and some defense, but really are not toward the top of the Sun Belt in any specific category outside of their kicking game. Their passing offense is ahead of their run game, which is probably the exact opposite way you would want to attack the Mountaineers, who have faced three of the Sun Belt’s individual rushing leaders in their first three conference games. Georgia State back Freddie Brock is fifth in the conference with 71.7 yards per game. Brock is fresh off his best game of the season where he had a season high in carries (18) and yards (124). Brock has found the end zone twice this season on the ground, while as a team, the Panthers have just three rushing touchdowns. Christian Veilleux was part of the reason the Panthers defeated Vanderbilt a few weeks back, as he tossed for 269 yards and three touchdown passes. However, the former Pitt quarterback backed that up with three interceptions against Georgia Southern and another pick against Old Dominion. He started last week against Marshall, but only led two drives before taking a seat to allow Zach Gibson, formerly of Georgia Tech, to finish the game. Gibson played well against Old Dominion and Marshall, but it was not enough to lead the Panthers to victory. So with more than a week to prepare with quarterback uncertainty, you could see Georgia State make a move here to Gibson as the starting quarterback. The Panthers have not been eliminated from the postseason, but they have road games at James Madison and Texas State looming. Gibson is in his final season as student athlete while Veilleux is listed as a junior. I really think Appalachian should get back to running the ball in this game if they can. At some point it needs to be established if the Mountaineers want to play beyond their current schedule. The Panthers have allowed 200 or more yards on the ground in all of their losses. At the same time, Georgia State found a groove against Marshall on the ground with a season high 218 yards on the ground. Can they find that again? Does Gibson push them over the top? Or will it be the same song and dance it always has been between these two teams.

The First Pick

Blue Cats 24

Mountaineers 33

Appalachian State @ Louisiana

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Appalachian State (2-3, 0-2) @ Louisiana (4-1, 1-0)

Saturday, October 12th, 2024 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Cajun Field

Capacity: 41,426

Surface: Matrix Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.01

Louisiana: 67.45

Home: 2.85

Louisiana is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.29 points

VegasInsider Line: Louisiana -10.5

Series: App State leads 8-3

Last Meeting: Louisiana 24, App State 16, November 4, 2021, Lafayette, LA

Last week, the Mountaineers returned to football. It was a step in the road to recovery in the sense of returning to a normal routine. The result was obviously not what we were looking for, and the mistakes that occurred on the field can be expected from a group of young men who have gone through a disaster like nobody has ever seen in this state. Just getting on the field is a win. For a couple hours on Saturday, we thought about silly things like turnovers and penalties. But as the fourth quarter wound down, and the result was clear, slowly our minds crept back to the reality of a recovering region. And by the time we play again this week, we’ll take another step. Eventually schools will reopen, and roads will be repaired, bridges built and our communities will come back to the life we once knew. It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. We just have to do it together.

It’s hard to believe that we have not seen these guys since 2021. The Mountaineers have played the Cajuns more times than any other Sun Belt team since they joined the league. Three times, they played against each other for the Sun Belt Championship. But after the conference expanded to 14 teams, those meetings which seemed annual, took a hiatus for a couple seasons. So what has Louisiana done since the last time we saw them? First off, they lost Billy Napier to Florida, who in turn, has had enough of him. Enter Michael Desormeaux, a first time head coach, who has spent his entire coaching career at Louisiana after a playing career as a Cajun. He is as much Cajun as Shawn Clark is Mountaineer. The Cajuns have had a 6-7 record in each of the last two seasons, but are off to a 4-1 start to the 2024 campaign. They garnered wins against some bad schools in Grambling, Kennesaw State and Southern Miss. They lost to in-state rival Tulane 41-33 and went to Winston-Salem and knocked off the Deacons 41-38. The Tulane loss looks like a quality one, as the Green Wave’s only two losses are to ranked teams, while any road scalp of an ACC team is better than not having one.

Louisiana is always going to be about one thing. They are going to run the football, and pass when they need to get you out of the box. They average nearly 190 yards per game on the ground, which is good for 40th in the nation, but it’s a healthy running game, gaining 5.5 yards per carry. More importantly for the Cajuns, its a group effort between two running backs. Bill Davis and Zylan Perry have been used interchangeably in their offense. In five games, Davis has 53 carries and Perry has 40 carries, with both having eclipsed 300 yards on the season, and both have healthy yard per carry averages at 6.8 ypc and 7.6 ypc respectively. Davis’ high water mark for carries in game occurred in the last two weeks, as he toted the ball 13 times against Wake Forest and 14 times against Southern Miss. Perry had a season high 11 carries against Wake Forest. Perry has also snagged seven passes and serves as a kick returner for the Cajuns where he averages 29 yards per return.

The Mountaineers took a baby step last week. The offense was able to to put some points on the board, but their own early miscues dug themselves a hole they could not get out of. Despite allowing another opening drive score by Marshall, the Mountaineers answered, and then took a lead after the first play of second quarter at 10-7. Sixty-two seconds later, Marshall had scored on a 75-yard pass play, and a 13-yard interception return, and suddenly, the Mountaineers were back in that unwelcome yet familiar territory. The Mountaineers never got closer than 11 points for the remainder of the game. You could consider the entire second half as garbage time. The points were there, but the stops were not. Marshall punted twice, kneeled out the clock to end both halves, and scored on every other drive. South Alabama punted three times, fumbled once, and score on every other drive. A lot of improvements could be made by just forcing the other team to punt two more times over the course of the game. The odds of winning would go up tremendously.

Back before this season started, the stretch of games in September were the ones that were most talked about. A gauntlet of some sort, with a power opponent, an in-state rival, a short week and premier peer game. Nobody talked about coming off of September and heading into two road conference games in October. Now with the Mountaineers record at 2-3, and having lost a game on the schedule, getting to six wins feels like a task. Now that your record likely needs to be 6-5, there is less margin for error if a bowl game is part of your future. It makes this game against Louisiana almost feel like a must win. And that’s a bad spot to be in so early in the season. Somehow, someway, the Mountaineers are going to have to find a win in Lafayette. A three game losing streak going into an off week does not bode well. So how are they going to do it? Louisiana has played some subpar teams. We have talked about that already. The Cajuns defense held those three teams to a total of 32 first downs. And those stats aren’t skewed. Grambling 12, Kennesaw St 12, Southern Miss 8. Tulane converted 18 first downs, which is a rather pedestrian amount until you consider they benefitted from an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return touchdown. Those scores put the Green Wave up eleven points and they cruised to the finish by running the football. Tulane only threw for 83 yards the entire game. They didn’t need to throw. Wake Forest converted 28 first downs against Louisiana, and five of those were by penalty. Someone please shout to the heavens “ACC REFS!!” Still Wake was able to do pretty much whatever they wanted to do. They accumulated 218 rushing yards and 254 passing yards, which doesn’t include 83 yards in penalties. What am I getting at? I do not think the Cajuns defense has been tested. Louisiana still came out of Winston-Salem with a win, but that’s mainly because Wake’s defense is struggling just as much as Appalachian’s is right now. Wake only forced one Louisiana punt, and the Cajuns turned it over on downs once. Every other possession was a score. Sound familiar? Another odd statistic that means nothing, but could mean something. Cajun quarterback Ben Wooldridge has thrown all three of his interceptions in the two home games Louisiana has played. Appalachian has just one interception on the year, which is abnormal. But in order to get the picks, you have to slow down the ground game. That’s where it all starts and ends.

The First Pick

Peppers 30

Mountaineers 32

Appalachian State @ Marshall

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Saturday, October 5th, 2024 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Joan C Edwards Stadium

Capacity: 38,227

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 65.17

Liberty: 64.70

Home: 3.07

Marshall is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.54 points

VegasInsider Line: Marshall -3

Series: App State leads 16-10

Last Meeting: App State 31, Marshall 9, November 4, 2023, Boone, NC

This is going to be hard. This week has been unlike any other week I have experienced in the High Country. Football is certainly on the back burner. The month of October in Boone is supposed to be full of visitors. Whether they crowd Kidd Brewer or the Blue Ridge parkway, this is supposed to be our peak. However, that peak will be unlike what you can imagine. The peak will not come from sightseeing or touchdowns, but the heart that encompasses our community. The tireless efforts from first responders, emergency management, linemen and most importantly, people who volunteer, will be what this last week of hell will be remembered for. The outpouring of love, time, donations and supplies from across this great nation will never be forgotten. We hope we never have to pay it back, but if and when we do, we’ll be there.

The Thundering Herd is still searching to find out what kind of team they have. They have played their four non-conference games, with eight Sun Belt games remaining on their schedule. Their nonleague slate consisted of Stony Brook, Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Western Michigan. Predictably, the Herd lost to their P5 opponents, both of which were played on the road. They dispatched of Stony Brook convincingly in their opener and squeezed by Western Michigan last week in Huntington by the score of 27-20. Western Michigan now stands at 1-3 with a win over Bethune-Cookman, but they gave Wisconsin a hard time in their opener before falling 28-14. Western Michigan also lost at Ohio State by a wide margin.

Marshall has looked good in their wins when they ran the ball. They ran for 259 yards against Stony Brook and 243 yards against Western Michigan. In their last three games, Marshall has thrown for less than 180 yards in each contest. They are not a high volume passing attack, and they do not run a lot of plays as a whole on offense. They ran 64 plays against Western Michigan, after running 70 against Ohio State, and 62 against Virginia Tech. They average just 6.1 yards per pass despite throwing 10 touchdown passes in four games. Stone Earle has played in every game at quarterback while Braylon Braxton and Cole Pennington have played in two games apiece. Their leading running back AJ Turner has 378 yards on the season on just 30 attempts. He gained 119 yards against Stony Brook and 124 yards against Western Michigan in those wins.

Unfortunately, with the Mountaineers, we do not have an update. The loss to South Alabama nearly two weeks ago seems like two years ago. Prior to Hurricane Helene, fans were not in a good space. Early last week, there was Liberty controversy over a “White Out” for the fans, while the football team was going about life, business as usual. Perhaps this was a rope-a-dope moment for Liberty. After consternation for about a whole day, while the rains prior to Helene were falling across the mountains, the game was called off on Friday morning at around 11:30am due to travel concerns. Quickly, the focus was no longer on football. And for many families across the southeast, making connections with their football playing sons during and after the floodwaters receded, was next to impossible. Over five days after the storm has passed, many in Boone and the surrounding areas remain without power and connectivity to the outside word. Yes, football seems silly to discuss at this point.

So, even though last week works as a bye week for a football team, it was anything but a week to rest and relax. By the time Saturday rolls around, it will have been 16 days between games for the Mountaineers. Certainly that helps a team recover from the grind of the first four weeks, but the time off could actually hurt. Think about what you might go through as a college athlete, with the constant talk and doubt as to whether a game will be played or not and then the continued struggle the following week whether they had the energy after mental exhaustion of dealing with the storm. These players and coaches have been through a lot of highs and lows in the last couple weeks and it could show on Saturday. Or, a road game, is exactly what this team needs. To get away from the constant reminder of what happened last week. To get back to doing the things they love to do, to at least escape for a moment. Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched. There are not a lot of things that Marshall does exceptionally well, but they also do not do anything poorly either. They are basically middle of the pack in just about every Sun Belt category. However, they are pretty stingy defending third downs, which could be a trouble spot for Appalachian if they continue to struggle on the ground as they did in the first four games. Last year, Joey Aguilar worked the Marshall defense methodically with four completed passes to three different tight ends. The Mountaineers were also able to run the ball forty times a season ago, and Aguilar led that attack with 44 yards on the ground of his own. It worked last year thanks to three interceptions thrown by Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. But you cannot bank on a three interception game from your defense. And one would imagine we do not want Joey Aguilar leading the ground game again. The last two App State teams to travel to Marshall lost in tight games that were decided in the fourth quarter. I would expect another tight, low scoring game this weekend where points will be at a premium. It is always hard to win in Huntington. Marshall leads the all time series in West Virginia 7-6, and the Mountaineers have dropped three straight. The last win at Marshall was in 1995, a 10-3 win in App State’s perfect regular season. Time has come to end that streak.

The First Pick

Buffs 21

Mountaineers 24

Appalachian State vs Liberty

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Appalachian State (2-2) vs Liberty (4-0)

Saturday, September 28th, 2024 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 65.47

Liberty: 69.49

Home: 3.87

Liberty is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 0.15 points

VegasInsider Line: Liberty -3.5

Series: App State leads 7-3

Last Meeting: Liberty 55 App State 48, October 11, 2014, Boone, NC

We did that thing again, and this time we did not respond. The record is skipping and we are seeing the same thing each week. When does it stop? Going through the motions for the last three weeks, it was hard to tell which direction we are going. Was Clemson good? Is Clemson great? What a great comeback at East Carolina. Man, it would be nice to score first and not give up a long touchdown. Is maybe South Alabama good? Are we bad? Can we score first? We’ve been asking ourselves all these questions in what feels like one of the longest weeks after a loss in recent memory. And then before you turn around, you are facing a good team, in a game that was not too long ago considered a possible elimination game for playoff considerations. It feels like those dreams are now fleeting, and we, as fans are hoping for any positive signs of life. Or perhaps, it was truly one bad game, and there is a lot of football left to play. And maybe we should not end this season before it gets started.

This weekend, we welcome back our old friend, or foe, back to Boone. Maybe he isn’t a foe. Those words might not be strong enough, which certainly means he is no friend. He has been a thorn in our side, and he takes every opportunity he can to disparage our school. Even when he throws his own employer under the bus to do so. From picking on a practice video that should have never been leaked to saying, “They should not have rushed the field over that”. His name is Jamey Chadwell. He has beaten Appalachian as a player, and as a coach at two schools, and would love nothing more then to add another hit on his resume. He has been successful at every coaching stop, and some would say he has the perfect job right now. Many look down on Liberty for the way they were welcomed widely into FBS football with open arms and a lack of football scrutiny, while other programs worked tirelessly for decades to get a whiff of any respect. Their unlimited tap of resources has allowed them to take advantage of the changing landscape of college football. However their quick swoop into Conference USA and their impeccable win-loss record will always be met with sobering reminders like a Fiesta Bowl beatdown from a year ago.

During this miniature run by the Flames, they have often been criticized for their strength of schedule, or lack of it. That was part of the uproar last season when the Flames finished 13-0, won the conference title and were granted access to the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. Clearly the committee preferred an unblemished regular season over teams that many considered were “better” than Liberty, and maybe had a better resume, but still had lost a game or two. Liberty was ranked 23rd in the CFP rankings and 18th in the AP poll at the time. Fast forward to this season, and yes, Liberty does have four wins to no losses. The Flames beat Campbell in the opening week 41-24. Campbell is 1-3 with a win over Western Carolina. New Mexico State went 10-5 last year and lost twice to Liberty by double digits, but has started 1-3 this season. UTEP is 0-4, and App State fans are familiar with East Carolina’s 2-2 start.

App State started slow again. And this time, they never found a gear. It bears repeating. The Mountaineers were only down 28-7 at half, and that’s because of an improbable heave into the end zone as the second quarter wound down to Dalton Stroman that kept some fans around for the second half. It was a demoralizing loss that could not end soon enough, yet the pain still lingers long into the following week. South Alabama made the right plays on defense to keep the Mountaineers off sequence and without any type of rhythm. The ground game continues to struggle with no semblance of life. Each of the committee running backs had runs of over 10 yards, but neither had more carries than Kanye Roberts’ eight rushes. In all, twenty-five carries were split between the four with none of them finding enough creases to stay on the field. Anderson Castle leads the team with 39 carries and 184 yards, but the overall team output is underwhelming after four games.

Without the run game, it throws Appalachian’s balance off. It’s a domino effect. If you cannot control the game on offense, your opponent controls you on defense. Any App State team where passing the ball becomes a necessity is working against the foundation of how the team recruits, develops and gameplans. It will get better because it has to get better. On the other side, as the offense is unable to sustain scoring drives, the pressure just mounts against the defense. Emphasis on scoring drives, as App State has managed just 18.33 points per game in the last three contests. That’s just not going to get it done in college football. A rhythm has to be established. If you wonder why Joey Aguilar only has six touchdown passes on the season, it simply comes down to the inability to effectively run when needed. Don’t get me wrong. The defense got whipped last week, right from the jump. South Alabama’s offense averaged over 10 yards per play on the first two scoring drives. The Jaguars did not punt until late in the second quarter and scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions.

We all know that Jamey Chadwell offense. They play best when they are ahead and can sometimes be out of sorts when they play from behind. That’s exactly what happened to Liberty last week when they faced East Carolina. The game started as regularly scheduled, both teams went three and out and weather delayed the game for over four hours before they resumed play at roughly 10:45pm. Liberty fell behind 17-0, almost exactly like App State did to East Carolina, before the Pirate offense was figured out. Liberty scored twice in the fourth quarter to secure the 35-24 win. The box score looked pretty normal for a couple teams who were playing well into the morning hours. East Carolina was buoyed by nine Liberty penalty flags that gave the Pirates 91 free yards and four first downs. That’s been a theme all year for the Flames. They have been flagged 33 times on the year for 360 yards. That is the fifth worst total in the country in penalty yardage. App State would love to take advantage of a few free first downs in they are available on Saturday afternoon. We have gotten this far and have not mentioned one Liberty player by name. As with Chadwell offenses from the past, it starts at the quarterback position. Kaidon Salter is the man who had a phenomenal year in 2023. He combined for 44 touchdowns, (32 passing, 12 rushing) while averaging 78 rushing yards and 205 passing yards per game. For the start of the 2024 season, Salter’s passing yards have ticked upwards by 32 yards a game while his rushing yards are down 35 yards per game. This exact same thing happened with Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina from his 2020 season to his 2021 season. His passing yards per game went up by 35 yards per game while his rushing yards dipped 25 yards per game. I’m not one to think these numbers are coincidental, but this is about the time of the year where trends emerge. Most teams know what works well and what does not work well, and they usually call the plays that work. So does this game simply come down to how well App State can defend Salter? He’s not a game manager, but he is a playmaker. It just seems so far in 2024, he is distributing the ball more than he did last season. Most importantly the Mountaineers must work hard to get off the field on third down. They have allowed a 42% conversion rate to opposing teams while surrendering a 54% clip last week. Liberty ranks in the top 20 in the country in third down conversion rate. Liberty’s website says 51%, while the NCAA’s site says closer to 52%. The Mountaineers have to find some footing for offensive balance. The Liberty defense can be had as they gave up 24 points to both New Mexico State and East Carolina. That was the most points the Aggies had scored in a game, and the most the Pirates have scored against FBS competition.

The First Pick

Burning Bush 27

Mountaineers 30

Appalachian State vs South Alabama

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Appalachian State (2-1) vs South Alabama (1-2)

Thursday, September 19th, 2024 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.61

South Alabama: 63.62

Home: 3.26

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 9.25 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -7.5

Series: App State leads 4-1

Last Meeting: App State 31 South Alabama 7, November 13, 2021, Boone, NC

We almost did that thing again. But this time it was different. After a whirlwind first quarter that resembled the previous week, the Mountaineers settled into their groove. It will be a memorable win in a series that divides households and workplaces. Any road win is a big one, but a road win in state means a little more. Those celebrations cannot last long, because we get right back after it a couple days earlier this week. On top of the quick turnaround, this game also means a lot more than just any other game. It’s an all important conference game, a ring game, that will count towards the ultimate goal of playing for a championship in December. South Alabama will pose a good test, especially on short rest. But coming into Boone is not an easy assignment for anyone. Especially when you get the energy of The Rock on a school night.

For the second time this season, Appalachian will face a team with a first year head coach at the school. Major Applewhite assumed the role when Kane Wommack left South Alabama to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama. Applewhite has been around the block, even for a guy who is yet to reach his 50th birthday. The former Texas quarterback still has many active Longhorn records, but spent most of his time as a quarterback’s coach and offensive coordinator at his many stops. Just like his first coaching gig at Houston, he had spent time as the play caller before getting the top job. Applewhite coached the 2016 Las Vegas Bowl for Houston and two more seasons in 2017 and 2018 before being fired for losing three bowl games. He resurrected his career like most coaches and became an analyst for Alabama before landing in Mobile in 2021. He was once again a QB coach and offensive coordinator before getting the head job this past offseason. The beginning of 2024 has been slow for the Jaguars, with two losses to peer schools in North Texas and Ohio before rolling up 87 points on FCS Northwestern State last Thursday night.

Freshman Gio Lopez is the starting quarterback for South Alabama. He handled all the passing downs in the first game against North Texas. However, he suffered an injury and did not start against Ohio. Bishop Davenport started the Ohio game. Both Lopez and Davenport played against Northwestern State, but it’s Lopez’ job. Both quarterbacks are dual threats. South’s offense looked pretty much the same in those first two games. Lopez lit up North Texas with 432 passing yards and added another 62 yards on the ground. However, the Jaguars fell short in a 52-38 defeat. South Alabama allowed a punt block for touchdown that they could not overcome in the third quarter that forced their offense to the air. Even in the Ohio game, South Alabama looks to be quarterback centric. Davenport shared the rushing opportunity lead with Fluff Bothwell. Both were credited with ten carries. There is no question that South Alabama has an offense that can move the ball, but their balance seems slightly off and their season could be dictated by their health at quarterback.

App State started slowly again before they eventually settled down and let the game come to them. The Mountaineers quickly fell into a hole the same way they had done the week before, by giving up a long touchdown pass on the opening drive. The lead swelled to 16-0 before the Mountaineers finished the first half scoring three times in the second quarter to draw within two points. The Mountaineers took the lead they would not surrender on a 36-yard touchdown pass from Joey Aguilar to Makai Jackson, who has now scored in every game this season. Aguilar threw for a career high 424 yards through the air, ranking as the third best passing output in Appalachian history, while completing 68% of his passes on the day. Aguilar hit his top three options, Jackson, along with Christian Horn and Kaedin Robinson for a combined 18 completions for 323 yards, at nearly 18 yards per reception. The run game did enough at the right time, as Anderson Castle once again paved the way for 40 tough yards.

The Mountaineer defense faced some big time adversity on Saturday. Besides being down several starters for injury prior to the game, and losing two more impact players due to targeting calls, they bucked up and kept the Pirates out of the end zone outside of the first drive. East Carolina finished the game with 324 yards, which is a fantastic effort in this era of college football. Only 199 of those yards came after the first quarter. In the third quarter, the East Carolina’s offense ran 24 plays that covered 104 yards and they had three points to show for it. This game came down to making winning plays when they needed to be made, and not caring who made the play. Thursday night will be another huge test for the App State defense. In addition to playing on a short week, South Alabama can get the ball down the field in multiple ways. Running back Fluff Bothwell had a big game against Northwestern State, but was also productive against North Texas and Ohio, with 16 carries for 100 yards in those two games.

We have alluded to the fact that South Alabama has a decent offense and it looks like they might be able to score some points. The Northwestern State game has to be completely dismissed when discussing what we think the Jaguars can do. That game is not great for college football. Besides that game, South Alabama probably played two teams that are complete opposites. North Texas has always thrived as a “basketball on grass” kind of football team. They love their passing offense and defense has always been optional. Last year North Texas went 5-7, and in their 5 wins, they averaged 42 points a game. In their seven losses, they gave up 41.8 points per game. So should a 52-38 game between North Texas say more about a typical Mean Green game or does South Alabama have it? Let’s revisit the other game the Jaguars played this year. Ohio has always played an old school type of football. Good defense and a strong running game has always been the their forte. South Alabama played that game with a backup quarterback. The final score was 27-20. The 27 points represents the most points in three games that Ohio has scored. They scored 22 in a loss to Syracuse and only managed 21 points against FCS Morgan State. Ohio ran for 200 yards on South Alabama on 40 attempts. Ohio ran for 148 yards on 38 attempts against Morgan State. So it seems, that the South Alabama defense has some holes. They look like a team that might prefer a high scoring game compared to one where defenses have a chance. So that is where the question marks pop up. Which App State defense will we see on a short week? The Mountaineers clamped down on East Carolina last week after the first couple drives, and arguably, won the game. Or do we see an App State defense that has given up explosive plays for touchdowns in every game this season? The Jaguar defense can also be had. Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro, in his first year as a starter since high school completed 20 of 28 passes for a season-high 204 yards against the Jags, and added 62 yards and a rushing touchdown. North Texas signal caller Chandler Morris completed 32 of 41 passes for 415 yards, three touchdowns with zero interceptions and zero sacks. The Mean Green also had a wide receiver complete a 31 yard pass in the game. If you add up all those attempts over those two games, South has allowed a 75.7% completion rate. Joey Aguilar also had a season high completion rate against East Carolina. I can see another 300+ yard passing day for the Apps, and if that happens, the running game should get its opportunity to feast in the second half.

The First Pick

Salamanders 21

Mountaineers 36

Appalachian State (1-1) @ East Carolina (2-0)

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Appalachian State (1-1) @ East Carolina (2-0)

Saturday, September 14th, 2024 4:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Capacity: 50,000

Surface: Natural Grass

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.50

East Carolina: 66.02

Home: 2.79

East Carolina is favored by the Sagarin ratings by .31 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -2.5

Series: App State leads 21-12

Last Meeting: App State 43 East Carolina 28, September 16, 2023, Boone, NC

How about, we not do that again? That was certainly a game that will be hard to forget, even if it was unmemorable. Shall we move on? We’ll try. Whatever the result of last week, the focus would have been on this weekend. A rivalry that has been renewed, playing its third game in four seasons. Remember when this contract was signed, it was such a big deal that East Carolina needed to play in Boone or Charlotte first to hold up their end of the bargain? In a way to hold the Pirates to their word. That seems crazy to think of at this point. Now that the series has shifted to Greenville, not many in and around Pitt County would have imagined that Appalachian would have won the first two contests. Games played in the land of whole hog and vinegar are a lot different than those played in the twilight of a Charlotte skyline or a sunny September day along the Blue Ridge. The Mountaineers have not beaten the Pirates where the soil is sandy since 1959. Can they overcome the flatlands and the humidity for generational win?

The Pirates are off to a better start in 2024 than they had last year. At this point, we did not know that East Carolina’s first opponent in 2023 would become the eventual national champion. The Pirates then hosted and lost to Marshall in a weather delayed game before visiting Boone in the third week of the season. They started 0-3 and finished 2-10 with wins over Gardner Webb and Florida Atlantic. Nowadays, a 2-10 record would typically get a coach in his fifth season fired, but East Carolina has stayed the course, as they are only one season removed from a bowl appearance in 2022. So the Pirates have started the season differently, hosting FCS Norfolk State and going on a quick road trip to Norfolk to face Old Dominion. Norfolk State was a three win team last year and Old Dominion finished the season 6-6 with a bowl loss to Western Kentucky. However, the Monarchs hung with South Carolina a week ago on the road, but remain 0-2 on the season.

Last week, the Pirates depended up on their ground game with Rahjai Harris to move the ball. Harris is a senior, returning after a 485 yard campaign from a year ago. This will be the third time the Mountaineers have seen Harris as he has been with East Carolina throughout his college career. He had eight carries for 22 yards in 2021 while backing up Keaton Mitchell who is in the NFL. Harris scored two of his five touchdowns last year against App State in a 56-yard effort in Boone. It was not until the final game of 2023 when Mitchell was able to break through with 145 yards against Tulsa. He did not see the field much against Norfolk State, but his usage against Old Dominion appears to be a better predictor for his 2024 campaign. Harris is a big back, at 5’11” and 214 pounds. He ran for 131 yards last week on 26 carries, but nearly half of those came on a 63 yard touchdown run in the third quarter. That score gave ECU their first lead that they would never relinquish. Harris’ other 25 carries went for just 68 yards, but ECU was relentless in feeding him the ball.

Yikes. It’s awfully late in the week to go through the motions about last Saturday. Regardless, it happened, and even though we want to forget it, it still happened. There were a lot of things Clemson did that they did not need to do in order to win. They did not need to convert half of their third downs. They did not need to be perfect on five opportunities in the red zone. They did not need to force the Mountaineers to punt eight times, nor rack up over 700 yards of offense or kick a third quarter field goal in order to win. But they did all of those things, and no matter what, Appalachian State was not going to win on that Saturday night. The only cure for this pain is to play another game and be victorious. There is no doubt in my mind that we will witness an appropriate response this weekend. This program only digs in deeper when they have underperformed, and it does not take anyone outside the football buildings to tell them that.

It wasn’t all bad. There are a few bright spots to mention. The running back rotation was very evident. Although carries and catches do not resemble a players true workload in as much as the number of routes they ran, or snaps they played, it does give us something. Anderson Castle and Ahmani Marshall both carried the ball seven times, with Castle running for 80 yards and Marshall for 28 yards on their respective opportunities. Kayne Roberts saw five carries for 18 yards. Makai Jackson handled the ball more than any skill player for the Mountaineers. Jackson caught six passes for 54 yards and carried the ball twice for 24 yards. Over two games, Jackson might be the most versatile player as far as workload is concerned. Jackson is only fourth on the team in total touches with 11, but has scored in both games. His role only looks to increase as defenses have to prepare for him in all situations.

East Carolina has completely reformed their offensive approach. They were one of the worst offensive teams in the country a year ago. They only scored twenty points or more in four games in 2023. The Pirates hired John David Baker from Ole Miss over the offseason, who spent his previous three years in Oxford. Baker serves as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks for East Carolina, and has quickly improved the output from a yardage standpoint. Quarterback Jake Garcia, who started his career at Miami, transferred in from Missouri this year and has started both games this year. He’s averaging 295 passing yards a game on the young season. However, the number that is sticking out is the number of interceptions he has thrown. Seven interceptions in two games is a lot. It’s worrisome when you throw three interceptions against Norfolk State, and then follow it up with four against Old Dominion. The Monarchs collected just eleven interceptions a year ago and were unable to secure one in the first game against South Carolina. So when you see the low scoring game against Old Dominion, that is why. On top of four interceptions, East Carolina punted five times and kicked two field goals. The touchdowns they scored were on their opening possession of the first and second half, both plays of twenty or more yards by Rahjai Harris. Basically, the Pirates are making hay between the twenties, but are scoring on just 50% of their red zone drives and have converted just three of eight such drives into touchdowns. The Pirates have possessed the ball a ton over two games, and are good at keeping the chains moving, but always seem to become stagnant once the field shrinks and there is less space to work with. When they figure out how to finish in the end zone, they’ll become a dangerous team with their defense that is more than capable of winning games. A lot of the same characters return to an App State offense that did not have much issue putting up numbers on East Carolina last year. Joey Aguilar was getting the feel to being the starting quarterback, and played really well besides an ill-advised opposite field throw that became a pick-six for the Pirates. The Mountaineers trailed 21-10 last year in the second quarter, but reeled off five of the games next six scores and ran away with a double-digit win. The Mountaineers should be able to attack the ECU defense, especially considering what their eyes saw last week dealing with a lot of tight coverage.

The First Pick

Blackbeards 16

Mountaineers 31