App State Football vs Georgia Southern

Posted on November 22, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs Georgia Southern (6-5, 3-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 25th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.23

Georgia Southern: 62.65

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.01 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -8.5

Series: App State leads 20-16-1

Last Meeting: App State 48, Georgia Southern 51, November 26, 2022, Statesboro, GA

It’s difficult to describe if you were not present last week, but everything about last Saturday felt like big time football. Compliments to James Madison for a great environment and thanks to College Gameday. We all knew what the panelists would say last week. They were present to tout their hosts. As expected, as App State received the same treatment from the crew last season. But that week is behind us. The list of schools who want to be App State’s rival is long. Get in line JMU. Meanwhile the last game of the season gives us the school who is in front of that line. The gap between the Eagles and whoever else is next is still wide. It will be hard for anyone to supplant the hate and respect that App State and Georgia Southern have for each other. So be thankful for what you have this week. Give thanks for what makes you happy, and what makes you angry. Even if what gives you those feelings are the same thing.

Earlier this season, people wanted to believe that Georgia Southern might be a legitimate threat to contend for the Sun Belt East. Over the course of time, just about everyone has had an inside line for just that. About a month ago, the Eagles were sitting at 3-1 in conference play with their only loss to James Madison. They had four winnable games in front of them, but three of those games were on the road. First came a loss at Texas State in which the Eagles lost by three touchdowns, but it was truly never that close. The Bobcats once led 45-10 before the Eagles closed the gap. Then the Eagles went to West Virginia to face a Marshall team that had scored less than ten points in each of their previous three games. Southern gave up 38 points to a redshirt freshman quarterback, which included a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Then Old Dominion stymied the Eagles on Senior Night in Statesboro, playing a one score game, and defeating the Eagles for the first time in their schools’ history.

Briefly, we need to discuss this Georgia Southern defense. The 38 points they surrendered to a struggling Marshall team is eye-opening. But if you look back through the entire season you will realize this has been a struggle all year. The Eagles have given up 27 or more points eight times. They have allowed 35 or more on five occasions. So, let’s dissect those five teams. One is currently 4-7 UAB, who is winless on the road this year, but is 21^st in total offense in the country. Wisconsin has the 80^th best total offense in term of yards, and has scored just 28 offensive touchdowns this season, five on the Eagles. James Madison dropped a 41-spot on Southern while the Dukes’ offense averaged 7.1 yards per play. Texas State scored 45 points on eleven possessions. Seven of their first eight possessions were scores. The other was a fumble. Southern surrendered two second half leads to Marshall and the Herd fumbled four times, but the Eagles only fell on one of them. Marshall converted just two of nine third downs and lost the turnover battle by two.

It’s safe to say that optimism has transitioned into confidence. Going into last week, you could safely assume a good college football game was upon us. Comparing statistics only goes so far when you have good teams facing off against each other. Eventually those kinds of games come down to a few plays on either side. Making those plays was none other than each team’s quarterback and best wide receiver. The Dukes had only given up two touchdown passes in the previous five games, and Joey Aguilar threw three scores, two to Kaedin Robinson, including the walk-off winner in overtime. Another silent assassin was Eli Wilson. Per usual, nobody covers the App State tight end, and Wilson had a career day with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Neither team could run the ball on Saturday, so it came down to Joey Aguilar making the extra play in overtime.

The evolution of the new Mountaineer defense continues. The Dukes are a well balanced offense that leaned more toward the pass. They had not been a top team in the conference running the ball and the Mountaineers held them to their second-lowest rushing output of the season of just 61 yards. But lately the Dukes had leaned more into the pass which might have played right into the Mountaineers newfound strength. Jordan McCloud still put a solid 289 yards passing, but most of those yards came late in the fourth quarter when Madison was making their late push. The hard work was done in the first half. The six first half possessions for Madison resulted in three punts, two turnovers and one made field goal. As we documented last week, Madison made their pushes in the third quarter most of the year. Madison came out in the third quarter and punted twice and missed a field goal. Even when the Mountaineers played softer late in the fourth quarter, they still forced long touchdown drives of sixteen and twelve plays to keep momentum at bay.

The game this weekend appears to be between two teams heading opposite directions. Both teams are streaking, the Mountaineers winning four in a row, while the Eagles have dropped three straight. Most of us know how dangerous this game is annually, and especially so when it appears that one team is considered highly favored over another. More often than not in this rivalry its harder to win the game you are supposed to win. The new Georgia Southern presents a different kind of challenge than the Mountaineers have seen most of the year. In the second year of Clay Helton’s transformation, he was not as lucky as 2022 in getting the quarterback in the transfer portal he wanted. Davis Brin does lead the conference in passing yards over McCloud of JMU and App State’s Aguilar, but he is not efficient. Even with close to 100 more attempts than Aguilar, he lags in touchdown passes. Part of that is the entire Georgia Southern offense stalls in the red zone. The Eagles have crossed their opponents 20-yard line on 51 occasions but have managed just 26 touchdowns. Seventeen other times the Eagles kicked field goals. It leads to having a great statistic of scoring 85% of the time down close, but that’s simply way too many field goals and not enough touchdowns over the course of a season. It’s great for Southern that they have a good kicker who is accurate and can boot touchbacks 70% of the time, but that’s not winning them enough games in Statesboro. Ultimately their season has come down to offense and defense. Midway through the season, something changed. In their first six games of the season, Southern threw the ball for 331.5 yards per game on roughly 48 attempts per game. During those games they also ran the ball about 27 times a game. In the last 5 games, those numbers have shifted substantially. The Eagles have dipped to 262 yards passing per contest on just 37.4 attempts, while their total rushes have increased by six to 33 per game. Sure, there are fewer conference games early on, but those are balanced out by non-conference games against game that include fewer peers. Roughly, these numbers represent a 20% shift in play selection, from passing to running. Passing yardage went down around 20% as well, but rushing yardage only increased by 11.4 yards a game or just over 10%. Georgia Southern was not tricking anyone. Opposing coaches noticed it, adjusted, and the Eagles have not been as explosive as they were in the first half of the season. A team that commenced an uptick in running plays, with their top running back Jalen White potentially missing the game, against a defense that went from allowing 206 rushing yards a game in their first eight games to just 103 yards a game in their last three seems like a bad mix. If the Mountaineer defense can continue limiting those opportunities, and tackle well in the open field, it could spell a long day for Southern. The Mountaineers must make sure they do not lose this game based on last week’s result. I think its behind them and they are ready for the next step.

The First Pick

Stinkers 23

Mountaineers 35

App State Football @ #18 James Madison

Posted on November 15, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ James Madison (10-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 18th, 2023 2:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Bridgeforth Stadium

Capacity: 24,877

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.19

James Madison: 76.04

Home: 2.45

James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.3 points

VegasInsider Line: James Madison -8.5

Series: App State leads 12-5

Last Meeting: App State 28, James Madison 32, September 24, 2022, Boone, NC

We’ve all seen the made for television debate shows. The talking heads of daytime sports viewing remind us all what it’s like when the Mountaineers head to Atlanta for a football game. Same as it ever was, ten times over. And that leads into the fourth straight biggest game of the year for the Mountaineers. The season has been on the line since the second conference loss to Old Dominion. The first goal of securing bowl eligibility has been accomplished. Next up, facing a ten-win team with aspirations of sticking it to the NCAA. And oh yeah, that College Gameday program will be on site, as the Mountaineers will make their second appearance on the show in as many years, but this time as the road team. App State has found a groove and James Madison could be distracted with all the postseason waiver appeals and television cameras and personalities who likely want to talk about the same topic repeatedly.

It will be difficult to spend a lot of time on the James Madison schedule and try and dissect why they have won all their games. Many times, you’ll want to point out, “Hey, they have not played anyone!”, but for Madison, that not exactly the case. The Dukes scored 12 unanswered fourth quarter points to edge by Virginia back in Week 2. It was a P5 win on the road, even if the road trip was only about 60 miles away. Madison has shown they can win in a variety of ways which is typically what is bound to happen over the course of a season when you have ten wins. They have won ugly and pretty. Five of their games have been decided by one score. The Dukes defeated both Georgia Sun Belt schools by four touchdowns. They had some close wins over Troy and Old Dominion, and a win over Marshall that looked more lopsided than the final tally. The important thing to keep in mind is, that they won them all.

The success of the James Madison largely starts with Arizona transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud. Week in and out he has been a consistent force, rarely having a bad week in the stat column. Last Saturday was probably a situation where McCloud could have rested the second half, when you consider the lopsided 44-6 victory over one-win UConn. However, this game was close in the third quarter, with James Madison leading just 16-6. But the next three Madison drives were all touchdowns, most of those yards consumed by McCloud throwing the ball and ending each drive with a touchdown pass. On a day where James Madison had their worst outing of the season on the ground, McCloud shredded the Huskies for 457 yards and four touchdowns. The second half surge has been a common theme for Madison. They led Georgia State by a 14-7 margin at half before scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions in the third quarter. All those drives travelled at least 65 yards on at least seven plays.

There was cautious optimism last week. The Mountaineers had always handled the Georgia State Panthers by convincing scores anytime the two teams played in Atlanta. It was evident from the opening drive from Georgia State that the much-maligned App State defense was ready to take another step in getting things figured out. The Mountaineers forced an opening drive punt after three plays, and then bowed up in the red zone after the Panthers ran twenty plays before fumbling on the ensuing drive. The next nine Georgia State possessions covered all of 63 yards and included eight punts and one interception. The Panthers did eek out a couple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the damage had been done. The Mountaineers scored six touchdowns, three in each half, three on the ground and three by air. It was as balanced of an attack as we have seen all season from the offense despite some bobbled exchanges between the running backs and quarterbacks.

Last Saturday was a day to spread the ball around and six different Mountaineers scored. Makai Jackson had a breakout game, catching two long passes, one opening the scoring in the second quarter to give the Mountaineers a 14-0 lead. Jackson has now scored in back-to-back weeks and had a season high in catches and yards (3/98). Kaedin Robinson snuck behind the defense for a short receiving touchdown and Dalton Stroman turned on the jets for a 77-yard catch and run touchdown to open the scoring on the first play of the second half. The defense was stout all day, defending 87 plays, thanks to the Mountaineers getting up and down the field on offense with ease. They allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. The defense turned the Panthers over twice en route to allowing just 260 yards for the game. After surrendering 588 yards to Southern Miss, the Mountaineers have given up less than that figure in the last two games combined.

At this juncture of the season, most teams have put their best foot forward. Coaches know what they are about to face on the other side of the field. Rarely are there any surprises. From James Madison’s perspective, just about everything they have done has worked. Winning ten games does not happen by accident. Usually, along the way, teams will have a game or two where the margins are closer. As mentioned earlier, the Dukes have played in five one score games. Four of those games were consecutive and started with their Week 2 over Virginia. Three of those games were played on the road. Since that four-game run, James Madison has had it rather easy. Maybe too easy? The Mountaineers have played four nail-biting games on the road, but those games also occurred several weeks ago. An argument can be made that both teams last truly competitive game was against the same opponent in Old Dominion. I’m looking past Southern Miss for just a moment. Bear with me. Both games were one possession games that came down to the fourth quarter. Even with James Madison losing the turnover battle to Old Dominion, they had enough in the tank to slip by. Old Dominion converted nine of their eighteen third attempts, were perfect in the red zone and connected on both field goal attempts. Old Dominion really could not have played much better. But against this James Madison team, you almost must play perfect because they have been for most of the season. In all the “close” games that James Madison has played in, there has been a constant. The Dukes have given up 12 touchdown passes all season long, and every single one of them came in games that were decided by one score. Joey Aguilar has multiple touchdown tosses in every game this season outside of Wyoming, when the Mountaineers offense was also held out of the end zone. For the most part, Aguilar has improved weekly, cutting down on his early season interceptions and has made better decisions overall. James Madison’s defense was dominant against the run earlier in the season but has shown some vulnerability against the ground game of late. Seven of Madison’s opponents have had success throwing the ball against them, excluding teams with bad offensive lines and who have had offenses who have struggled late, such as Georgia State and Marshall. The Mountaineers are one of the hotter teams in the Sun Belt right now and confidence is building. How does it carry over into a huge game for the Mountaineers with the Dukes finally having nothing to play for except pride? This pick will have a little more heart in it than usual, but I believe in the Mountaineers will do what needs to be done to keep the division hopes alive.

The First Pick

Delegates 27

Mountaineers 34

App State Football @ Georgia State

Posted on November 8, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (6-3, 3-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 11th, 2023 2:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Center Parc Stadium

Capacity: 24,333

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.10

Georgia State: 63.93

Home: 2.38

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.79 points

VegasInsider Line: Georgia State -2

Series: App State leads 9-0

Last Meeting: App State 42, Georgia State 17, October 19, 2022, Boone, NC

There is some optimism in the App State camp this week. Fans tend to move on quicker when the wins come in multiples. Forget what it took to beat Southern Miss on Homecoming, and instead focus on dominating a reeling Marshall squad. But that is how growth works. It’s not all results driven. Sometimes you just need to believe. The Mountaineers did not play their best game last week, but it looked like they did not need to. Now they can take that confidence into a game that is another must win, versus an opponent who they have never lost to. The Panthers have found their own slide in recent weeks and are looking to stay on the track in the division race despite three conference losses. The Panthers and Shawn Elliott might have their best shot of taking down the Mountaineers they have ever had. However, the Mountaineers could be finding their stride at the right time while Georgia State is going in the opposite direction.

The Georgia State Panthers are next on the schedule, and the current “state of their season” is one that somewhat mimics what we saw in the last week with Marshall. The Panthers started 4-0 but have been middling in the meat of conference play. It’s not a full-on Marshall free fall, but starting 4-0, and then dropping to 6-3 seems a little unsatisfying. Although Georgia State has won a couple games in the past five weeks, those wins look less impressive today than they did when they happened. One of those wins was a three-score victory over Marshall, who has now lost five straight. The other was a three-point road win over Louisiana who is a hard team to figure out. Georgia State led Louisiana 20-0 before the Cajuns scored the last seventeen points of the game. Louisiana threw an interception in the end zone on their final drive and the Panthers kneeled the clock away. All in all, Georgia State was a end zone interception on the road away from dropping four of their last five games, with their lone win being Marshall.

The Mountaineers will have their hands full with a two-headed running game from Georgia State. Marcus Carroll and Darren Grainger have been a dominant and consistent force all season for the Panthers. Carroll has six games this season going over the 100-yard mark despite being limited to just 33 yards by James Madison. He has garnered nineteen or more carries every week except last week, when the game script worked against him. After scoring ten touchdowns in his first seven games, Carroll has been kept out of the end zone in two of his last three games. However, Carroll had a season high 208 yards against Georgia Southern just two games ago. Grainger is having his best season in Atlanta. He’s likely to eclipse his passing and rushing yardage totals from a year ago, which were also career bests. You will see him on design run plays to take advantage of his athletic ability which has probably helped his passing numbers. Although his touchdown passes are down from a year ago, and he already matched his interception total from two years ago, there is a good chance this will be his best season as a Panther.

Limiting Marshall to just a field goal in the first half was exactly what the App State offense needed. The first four possessions of the game provided a feeling out process for both teams until the Herd broke through with three points at the beginning of the second quarter. The Mountaineers responded with touchdowns on their next three drives, while taking advantage of a short field, thanks to a diving interception made by Donovan Spellman. The three Marshall drives directly after those App State touchdowns went for a total of three yards. The teams traded touchdowns on back-to-back drives in the third quarter, while the Mountaineers closed the scoring in the fourth quarter with a field goal that was sandwiched by two interceptions by Jordan Favors. This was the performance most have been seeking all year. Marshall has lost five games in a row for a reason despite their defense keeping them in some games. The Marshall offense is bad, and the Mountaineers took advantage early and put them away.

So why all the sudden optimism? Reminder, Marshall’s offense is bad. For the most part, it was a mistake free game. That does not mean that mistakes were not made, but not the big ones. The Mountaineers did not turn the ball over, limited penalties and converted seven times on third or fourth down. Joey Aguilar did all he needed to do by completing passes to open receivers and even some that were not. A nice ho-hum 229 yards in the air while also leading the team with 44 yards on the ground. We might see such statistics from Georgia State, but having Aguilar lead the team in rushing yards is not in the long-term plans for App State. With Anderson Castle returning, App State will have the top five running backs from August on their depth chart ready and available for the first time all season. A committee approach could be forthwith in the final stretch run of the season as far as divvying up carries goes.

Something happened to Georgia State recently that was hard to identify at first. There are many ways to breakdown schedules and results. For whatever reason the Louisiana game continues to stick out. It is the best example of how Georgia State has played all season long. They run out to a quick lead, like they did, 20-7, and then get outplayed in the second half. The Panthers did not score in that second half and possessed the ball four times. Those drives went 55 yards. All resulted in punts. The Panthers even punted on a 4^th and 11 play from the Louisiana 32-yard line. Georgia State survived that game but were outscored in the second half 10-0. The next week the Panthers were outscored in three of the four quarters by their in-state neighbors and best friends in Statesboro. Last week, James Madison outscored the Panthers in three of the four quarters as the teams were tied at 7-7 after the first quarter. In all, they have lost eight of the last ten quarters of football on the scoreboard. This is far different from how the season began, and really continued until this point. In the Panthers six wins, they scored at least 17 points in the first half, and in five of those games, scored 20 or more in their first half. In their three losses, they scored exactly seven points in the first half of each game. Seems simple right? Do not let them start fast. That is something the Mountaineers have struggled with during parts of the season. Now we all know that App State has lost four games, all by one score or less, and even when faced with a deficit have been able to hang around. Playing into that theme, Georgia State has given teams the ability to hang around. Seven of Georgia State’s opponents have thrown the ball for more yards than their current season average. Sure, some of that could be due to playing from behind, but this includes teams like James Madison and Georgia Southern who pretty much led the entire game. Madison and Southern both threw the ball for 334 yards on the Panthers. That figure represents 28 yards above Southern’s average and 71 yards above Madison’s. Rhode Island eclipsed their average by 115 yards. Charlotte by 90 yards, and Marshall by 68. For the season, opposing passing games have eclipsed 300 or more yards on four occasions, and 250+ yards eight times against the Panthers. This seems like a game that could unfold like last week. The Georgia State front seven is decent against the run, and App will give it a go early, before finding that green grass in the secondary. I like App State’s chances if they can force Grainger to throw the ball, where he has just four TD passes in the second half of games, and only four touchdown passes at home, and has thrown for only one-third of his season total yards in the second half of all games.

The First Pick

Not Cobb County 30

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs Marshall

Posted on November 1, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) vs Marshall (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 4th, 2023 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 66.21

Marshall: 64.44

Home: 2.19

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.96 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4

Series: App State leads 15-10

Last Meeting: App State 21, Marshall 28, November 12, 2022, Marshall, WV

The last third of the regular season is upon us and this is the time of the year when the championships are decided. Neither App State nor Marshall have looked like a division contending team. Yet the Sun Belt East remains wide open and could be for the taking. One would expect some teams to rise and separate themselves from the rest. This game will be a de facto elimination game for conference championship contention for whoever loses. It could be a fourth conference loss for Marshall or a third for App State, all to division foes. Like this series needed any more spice added to it. These historical juggernauts have routinely gotten into each other’s way since 1977. Marshall has won consecutive games in this series only one time when games were played in back-to-back years (1987-99). When Marshall won the Southern Conference in 1994, their only conference loss was to App State. Ten of the twenty-five games in this series have been decided by one score or less, and Saturday looks to be no different.

The Thundering Herd were having a great start to their season until they got to the month of October. They started the season with four wins but have not won a game since. Three of the first four games were played at home, with the one road game being played at East Carolina, who is now 1-7. Three of the four October games were played on the road, and the other was James Madison on a Thursday in Huntington. There were signs of this Marshall squad appearing to fall behind, but their schedule did them no favors. Looking back, FCS Albany and ECU should have been pushovers. However, the Herd played Albany to a four-point game, and the ECU game was played tighter until late in the fourth quarter, in a game that had a weather delay. Suddenly, the schedule got tougher, but defeating Virginia Tech by a touchdown seemed to set aside the woes of the previous games. After playing in one score games in four of the first five games, Marshall lost the last three games by multiple scores and have zero offensive touchdowns in the last two losses.

The true heartbeat of the Marshall team is junior running back Rasheen Ali. His season got off to fast start, thanks to 91 carries, 475 yards and nine rushing touchdowns in the month of September. However, just like the Herd, Ali has fizzled in October. Ali missed the game against James Madison and has just 218 yards in the last three contests and only two rushing touchdowns. Ali had a season low 12 carries for 52 yards last week against Coastal Carolina. Continuing the theme of the downward October trend, just look at the play of Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. His completion percentage has dropped nearly ten points from month to month, from 71% to 61.3%. In September, Fancher was sacked just twice. In October, he was sacked nineteen times!! So, when you wonder why Fancher did not finish the Coastal game, Marshall coach Charles Huff was quoted, “overall health and general lack of execution.” Huff also mentioned that he would have kept Fancher in had the game been close.

This is what this team will do. We are going to give you some anxious moments in the first half while the offense gets going, and then some tense moments in the second half as the team adjusts, and ultimately gives themselves a chance late. The Mountaineers scored five touchdowns in the second half, and four touchdowns on their final four possessions in the win over Southern Miss. The last three touchdown drives travelled 228 yards and took only 15 plays. Joey Aguilar threw for 391 yards. It might have been the quietist nearly 400-yard performance in recent memory. All that credit goes to the pass catchers who finished in the end zone. Dashaun Davis’ 57-yard touchdown reception was a highlight catch and run. Christian Horn had a superb game with eight receptions, 165 yards and two scores. Eli Wilson also scored on a 26-yard catch and frolic to the south end zone. Although the run game was slowed tremendously, Kanye Roberts turned a middling performance into a respectable one with a 61-yard go ahead score to help him finish with 109 yards for the second straight game.

The defense is still growing and figuring out how to put their best players on the field. Giving up a first drive touchdown has occurred in three of the four Mountaineers’ home games. Playing from behind is frustrating, but at this point, the players are accustomed to it. Understanding your deficiencies is as important as maximizing strengths, and in the short term, might be more important to this group’s success. The Mountaineer defense intercepted six passes in the first four games and allowed just one touchdown pass. Yet, the month of October has seen App State intercept just one pass while surrendering eight touchdown passes. The defense has also allowed over 400 yards in four straight games, and 560+ yards in two of the last three weeks. The 175+ rushing yards allowed in each of the last five games was punctuated by a 301-yard effort by Southern Miss last week. Marshall has the worst rushing offense in the league by a wide margin, even with Rasheen Ali averaging 99 yards a game.

There are a couple different ways to look at this game. Both teams have a unit that performs well above their conference opponents. When App State has the ball, they will have their hands full with a defense that has been mostly stingy, but a lot has been asked of them of late with the Marshall offense stumbling. Conversely, that Mountaineer defense has given up a lot of yards lately. Is it so simple as to which team has the worst unit? This Marshall offense is essentially all Fancher and Ali. They have been asked to do a lot, and at times they have, but there is only so much punishment they can take. A lot of Fancher’s game comes down to scrambling out of the pocket, which forces him to complete a lot of off-platform throws. That is shown by how many yards he has lost as a “runner”. It’s a little sickening to see that Fancher was credited with 45 carries in games against Old Dominion, NC State and Georgia State, in which he gained 136 yards. At three yards a rush, that does not seem too bad, but 102 of those 136 yards came against ODU. The next 30 carries went for 34 yards. This next twelve carries, against JMU went for -66 yards. Keep in mind, this includes yards lost being sacked. Against Coastal, he had seven carries for eight yards. Can you see the picture here? Fancher has been beaten up physically over the past five weeks and the only cure might be rest. The question becomes, how does Marshall maximize their best players, who are dealing with injuries, over the course of the next four weeks? Cole Pennington stepped in for Fancher for the final five drives of the Coastal game. The first went 60 yards over fourteen plays but resulted in a turnover on downs. The other four drives resulted in a fumble, another turnover on downs and two interceptions. Fancher and Pennington threw two interceptions each. Marshall will make a big play or two. Fancher is more likely to make those plays and Ali will not be far behind. The Mountaineers must limit those big plays and counteract them when Marshall gets in long yard to gain scenarios. I trust the App State offense to find the end zone enough times against this Marshall secondary, who is susceptible to balls over the top.

The First Pick

Turds: 24

Mountaineers 30

App State Football vs Southern Miss

Posted on October 25, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-6, 0-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 28th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.29

Southern Miss: 51.48

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.81 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -17

Series: Southern Miss leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 20, Southern Miss 21, November 20, 2014, Hattiesburg, MS

This sport can be harsh sometimes. The line between winning and losing is thin. Whether it’s one play, one call by the officials, or a collection of a couple plays and couple bad bounces. More often than not, these things even themselves out over time, it just seems most turns of events are bouncing away from the Mountaineers. It’s been a hard pill to swallow for several weeks. Being so close, yet so far. But the only way to change your fortunes is to keep working. And when the bounces start coming back, the wins will become sweeter because you earned it. Nobody wants it more than the players and if anyone does want it more, it’s the coaches, because they want to see it for their players. And most importantly, we all want to see them succeed. So as you normally would, pack your vehicles, head for the mountains, catch up with former classmates and enjoy what is left of the fall foliage. And when you head into Kidd Brewer, give your all, because those players are giving theirs for you.

Last season, in its first year in Sun Belt play, Southern Miss managed a 4-4 conference record with wins over Arkansas State, Texas State, Louisiana and UL-Monroe. All four of those wins were within the division. They lost both East division games, to Georgia State and Coastal. This season, Arkansas State and Texas State avenged their losses. Most recently, Southern Miss was manhandled by South Alabama last Tuesday evening. The score was 55-3, and it looked worse than that. That game marked the fourth time this season that Southern Miss scored 13 points or fewer in a game. Outside of an opening week win over Alcorn State, and playing high scoring games against defensively bad Arkansas State and shootout prone Texas State, the Southern Miss offense has struggled. Backup quarterback Holman Edwards, previously of Houston, relieved regular starter Billy Wiles, previously of Clemson, in the loss to South Alabama. Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall was noncommittal of who might start this weekend.

The Eagle offense managed 149 yards against South Alabama. Sixty-five yards came on their final drive of the game, in which ended in a fumble. The previous week, Southern Miss lost to Old Dominion, and their lone touchdown was a punt return. Southern Miss has not scored an offensive touchdown since September 30^th. They are not as bad as they have played in recent weeks, but their margin of error is quite small. Quarterback play has been a major issue. Wiles has played well against bad teams, and against good teams, he has struggled. All seven of his touchdown passes came against those subpar defenses in Alcorn, Ark. State and Texas State. Those three games were also the only ones in which he threw for 215 or more passing yards. In the other four games, his passing yards never surpassed 180 yards. Those numbers do not seem too far off, but the run game numbers likewise reflect poor output. The Golden Eagles averaged 204 yards rushing in the “poor defense’ games, compared to just 86 yards rushing against Florida State, Tulane, Old Dominion and South Alabama.

Last Saturday night created a low point for the Mountaineers, who are now on the wrong side of the win-loss column. The Mountaineers scored three times, each time occurring on fourth down. It’s honestly a wonder that the result of this game was not worse. Failing to convert on any of those fourth downs could have the changed the final tally dramatically. Only the Wyoming game created a lower point total for the Mountaineers, with 22. App State scored five times in that game. Plenty of folks have been looking for consistency for the Mountaineers. One of the main gripes was starting games quicker. Turns out, App has played better from behind all season than they have while out front. The Mountaineers scored first against Old Dominion and Wyoming, and held leads in the third quarter, but ultimately lost. Truth is, in the last four games, a game defining odd play has taken place in each fourth quarter that dramatically shifted the result. The blocked field goal at Wyoming. The goal line stop in Monroe. The fumble against Coastal. The botched mesh play in Norfolk.

In his first career start, Kanye Roberts performed about as good anyone could have expected. Still just a redshirt freshman, who had logged only thirty carries this season, Roberts took on 26 carries against Old Dominion. Roberts touched the ball on eight of the Mountaineers ten drives. The majority of Roberts’ yards came in the first half, aided by a 24-yard and 12-yard carry on the second series for the Mountaineer offense. Although his paced slowed in the second half, it was Roberts who carried the ball eight times for twenty-eight yards on the drive that put the Mountaineers up 21-20 in the third quarter. Those carries were not scattered either. All eight carries were in a matter of ten plays, that moved the offense to the edge of the red zone. After twenty carries through the Mountaineers first six drives, Roberts carried the ball just six times on the last four drives.

It’s quite crazy to think we come this far and not mentioned any Southern Miss playmakers. Franke Gore Jr is easily the most recognizable player, being the son of longtime NFL running back Frank Gore. His season has resembled the Golden Eagles season almost to a tee. Gore carried the ball six times in the win over Alcorn State, figuring there was not much need for him to carry the load in an FCS game. Gore eclipsed 100 yards twice this season, in those Arkansas State and Texas State games. All four of his rushing touchdowns came in those games. Since those outings, Gore has been stuck. He carried the ball 29 times for 66 yards against Old Dominion and 12 times for 37 yards against South Alabama. With 434 yards on the season, Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards a carry. Gore is really close to his pace of having a third straight 800-yard season, which is still very consistent, but behind some expectations considering he was a Sun Belt first team pick in the preseason. Backup running back Rodrigues Clark was spotted with a cast on his hand on Tuesday at practice. Assuming Clark does not play Saturday, that leaves the Golden Eagles thin at the position. Next in line for carries would be Kenyon Clark, who has only thirteen rushes on the year, but ten came in their last game. Tiaquelin Mims has a punt return touchdown to his credit and is also Southern Miss’ third leading receiver. Overall, the Mountaineers will be facing another team facing quarterback uncertainties. That makes the fifth game this season they have had to think about more than one quarterback on the opposing team. As a result, the Mountaineers will be preparing for another bottom-quartile team in terms of offensive yards, first downs generated and third down conversions. Oddly enough, Southern Miss is one of better red zone teams in the country, but that is mainly due to being 2^nd in the country in red zone field goals. Of their red zone scores, over half of them are field goals. I’d love to sit back here and say something simple, like field goals won’t be enough to beat the Mountaineers at home. Then again, the last four games have been nothing like a Saturday afternoon home game in Boone. It will have been six weeks between Saturday home games for the Mountaineers this week. That’s not an easy schedule to deal with for anyone. App State needs a rebound game in the worst way, and hopefully they can break the trend of one score games.

The First Pick

Royals: 19

Mountaineers 42

App State Football @ Old Dominion

Posted on October 18, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (3-3, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ Old Dominion (3-3, 2-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 21st, 2023 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium

Capacity: 21,944

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.27

Coastal Carolina: 59.13

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.71 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -6.5

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last Meeting: App State 27, Old Dominion 14, November 19, 2022, Boone, NC

The field goal giveth, and the field goal taketh away. In the third straight game, the kicking game became the difference in a football game. It’s been an up and down journey. The insanity of September 2022 decided make a make a curtain call in 2023, and is stretching the applause clear into October. No mistaking, its been a wild time to be a fan. With each passing week of close games, decided by a play or two, some doubt starts to creep into everyone’s thoughts. It’s impossible to block it all out. It might be one of the most difficult parts of anyone’s job, questioning if they can make it work like they had hoped. Tough times never last. Eventually it end’s one direction or another. Many conference champions have been decided with a conference loss on their resume. Sometimes even with multiple losses. The leaves are turning in the High Country, but they have not fallen yet. There is a lot of football season left, and everyone in the Sun Belt East has a chance.

Where does one start with the Monarchs? This group might be the most confusing team to figure out in the Sun Belt. Old Dominion has played a schedule that one can categorize as semi-difficult. They have played two ACC teams in Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. They trailed the Hokies at half by six points on opening weekend, but could not find any offense in the second half, before falling 36-17. Two weeks later, they led Wake Forest 17-0 at half, and 24-7 deep into the third quarter before allowing the Deacons to score the final 20 points of the game, losing 27-24. In two games against Sun Belt opponents, both were high scoring affairs, with the Monarchs throwing the ball all over Louisiana, and running it all over Marshall. And the final two games, against Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce, were low scoring matchups, and were decided in the fourth quarter. All of this to describe a team that can play with P5’s, can play against above average conference opponents, but can also struggle with some very bad teams.

Grant Wilson and Jack Shields have both played five games for Monarchs at quarterback. The problem is the Monarchs have played six games. It was Wilson who went 13/19 for a season high 247 yards with 4 touchdown passes in the win over Louisiana. Wilson did not play against Marshall, which left Shields to open the scoring on a 66 yard touchdown run in the opening minute. Shields also threw three interceptions against the Herd in a game where the Monarchs ran for 356 yards and somehow still lost. Both quarterbacks complete just a hair over 50% of their passes and have combined for 9 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Excluding one game here and there makes those numbers look increasingly different. Take away those 4 TD passes against Louisiana, and that TD/INT ratio looks downright ugly. The same can be said about the three interception game against Marshall. That ratio becomes tolerable. So which quarterback shows on up on Saturday?

It’s been so long since last Tuesday night, and quite honestly, revisiting any of still seems too fresh on the mind. The major concern is obvious. Nate Noel carried the ball one time, gained a yard, and left the game. The most recent update to his ankle is that he is still under evaluation. Coach speak this all you want, but based on the current information, he’s likely a game time decision. That leaves the running game in the hands of several backs who could see an increased role. Kanye Roberts was the only Mountaineer running back to break ten carries after Noel’s departure, and could see an increased role. It’s also possible that Roberts does not see Noel-like distribution and this backfield becomes a true committee. Roberts has been the most effective, with 5.5 yards per carry, with just thirty carries on the year.

The Mountaineer defense has now gone three straight weeks giving up a big play or multiple plays. You could even sprinkle in a play or two from ECU and UNC, but those did not hurt the Apps like they last three weeks felt. Wyoming’s big run negated the Mountaineers pick six. Monroe, out of literally nowhere, completed big pass play after big pass play, and Coastal followed suit. At first these plays trickled in, and then last week, it felt like an avalanche. Enter Old Dominion, whose offense cannot move the chains, hold the ball or convert third downs, but you know what they can do? They can hit the big play. Ten of their sixteen offensive touchdown plays have travelled 30 yards or more. There is no greater lesson about keeping your gaps minded and staying on top of the ball than what the Mountaineers will see this weekend.

After several weeks of dealing with similar issues on the defensive side of the ball, App State will have to gear up for a team that sticks to their plan of finding weaknesses to exploit when they are on offense. Despite this trend becoming the norm of late, it’s a topic that coaches bring up weekly to their players. In some cases, you may not have the horses to stop it, and in other scenarios, it’s all about positioning, which can always be corrected. We’ve mentioned these explosive plays as the way that Old Dominion has scored more than half of their offensive touchdowns. Keep in mind those sixteen scores have come in six games, which means they are scoring less than three touchdowns per game. The Monarchs have only had six other scoring “drives” this season. Putting this all together, Old Dominion is incredibly inefficient on offense. They average close to six yards a play, outgaining their opponents by nearly a full yard per play, yet are outgained by about twenty yards a game in total offense, while also being dominated in time of possession by close to 13 minutes a game. Still, they have played in five straight one score games. This matchup is a reminder that what you see in box scores and stat sheets can lead you astray from the actual product on the field. The way the Mountaineers have also played in four games decided by one possession might lead one to believe that we could be heading down the same road again. If you are rooting for App State, how must they avoid a repeat of past performances? I believe this all comes down to covering your assignments. As much as we have discussed how Old Dominion thrives on the big play, over the course of a game, they are still very inconsistent. The focus of the App State defense should be on winning each series. On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers must find a way to consistently run the football. The Monarchs have yet to surrender a 100-yard rusher on defense to a running back. The only player to do so, was Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. The defensive alignment tricks offensive coordinators into running, but the Monarchs remain in pursuit. The best way to get safeties away from the line of scrimmage is to open the passing game up. Old Dominion has been burned repeatedly by competent passing offenses, which excludes Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce. A steady dose and Aguilar and company should put the Monarchs on their heels enough for a close win for the Mountaineers.

The First Pick:

Royals 23

Mountaineers 31

App State Football vs Coastal Carolina

Posted on October 8, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Coastal Carolina (2-3, 0-2 Sun Belt)

Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN2

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.84

Coastal Carolina: 67.01

Home: 2.30

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 6.13 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -5.5

Series: App State leads 7-2

Last Meeting: Coastal 35, App State 28, October 3, 2022, Conway, SC

After two long road trips, the Mountaineers were granted a couple extra days to rest before a Tuesday night primetime matchup with Coastal Carolina. Once a Saturday is skipped for these weeknight games, it feels like you have not been on the field in ages. Quickly these two schools will rekindle a budding friendship that has produced homefield winners in each of the last four games. The last two games have created winners by a touchdown or less. The modern history of this series has provided some suspenseful games that have gone down to the wire. This will be the third straight year that App and Coastal have faced off on a weeknight. The conference and television networks could not have planned it better. Mix in the best atmosphere in the conference under the lights, along with some fall foliage and cooler weather, and the stage is set. These teams might be different one year to the next, but there is always one variable that never changes. Night games at The Rock.

Here come the Chanticleers. On paper, it does not appear they are their normal selves. It’s easy to look at their won-loss record and see that. Their wins are over Duquesne and FBS-transitioning Jacksonville State. Their losses include UCLA, and both Sun Belt Georgia schools. This is easily Coastal’s worst start to a season since 2019, which predates the Grayson McCall era. Opposing fans have been calling for the downfall of the Chanticleers for some time. Some of that could have been wishful thinking. Yet, one could argue, that Chants have not garnered a quality win since October 29th of last year, when they defeated Marshall 24-13 in Huntington. Since that game, Coastal’s record is 4-6. Two of those wins were this season, and the others were over an App State squad that went 6-6, and Southern Miss who went 7-6 with a bowl win over Rice. Coastal started 2022 going 9-1, and lost their last three games to James Madison, Troy and East Carolina. In the height of the McCall era, those games last season and the three losses in 2023, were games they could typically win.

You would be crazy to think we were done talking Grayson McCall. Coastal’s rise in 2020, some considered, was all due to his unique style. Now some are starting to wonder if it was all Jamey Chadwell. The truth was probably in the middle. McCall and Chadwell were good for each other. Thus, when Chadwell went north to Liberty, McCall flirted with a move himself. Surprisingly, he had no takers. Imagine that. Now, McCall will be trying to bounce back from possibly his worst game of his career. In his previous three seasons combined, he had only thrown eight total interceptions. Last week, he threw four interceptions against Georgia Southern. That leaves McCall with the same number of picks this season as touchdown passes. In his previous three seasons, he never failed to throw at least 24 touchdown passes. His completion percentage is currently the lowest of his career at 64%, which is still a decent number, yet not vintage McCall. He’s also just behind pace to eclipse his passing yardage totals in a season, which he set in 2021.

How about that defense? You might be questioning my sanity right now. Warranted? Who knows. In all seriousness, it was the defensive plays that were made in a shootout that combined for 81 points that won the game for the Mountaineers against Monroe. Micheal Hughes made the kick. The offense, on the back of Kaedin Robinson marched down the field to set up Hughes. But it was the defense that turned Monroe away four consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter. It was the only quarter in which Monroe did not score, and the only time of the game that Monroe had four consecutive possessions and did not come away with points. After teams traded turnovers in the fourth quarter, it was the defense, trailing by two points, who stopped Monroe on 3rd and goal from the 1 yard, and then sacked Jiya Wright for a seven yard loss on fourth down, who saved this game. With 5:21 remaining in the game, the Mountaineers could not afford to go down more than one score. On the ensuing Monroe possession, the defense forced a punt on three plays to set the offense up for the game-winning drive.

The most underrated performance last Saturday probably came from Kaedin Robinson. Catching ten passes in a college game is a feat, especially in the App State offense that prefers to spread the ball around. The fact that he caught ten passes on ten targets is equally impressive. Let’s take this another step. He caught ten passes on ten targets for 112 yards. He averaged 11.2 yards a catch, and his longest catch was just 16 yards. Robinson was doing a lot of dirty work. The fact that his last three catches came on the final drive, and every single one went for a first down, and he got out of bounds all three times to stop the clock? Those three plays took the Mountaineers from their own 19 yard line to the Monroe 37, where the ball was last snapped prior to Michael Hughes’ kick that sailed over the crossbar. Nate Noel continues to be a machine, even with less work. Ahmani Marshall saw his first action of the season, which lessened the load for Noel, yet he still managed to clear the 100 yard mark for the fifth consecutive game.

This Coastal team still has some of the guts of their former squads. You still see some option concepts, but mostly it has been Grayson McCall’s team, and as he goes, so will the Chants. The Georgia State game was an interesting one to watch. The game followed the flow of the series, as the home team never wins. Georgia State jumped on Coastal, and kept their distance. That was the old school way of stealing one from Coastal. Make them play catch up football, which gets them out of their comfort zone. Additionally, the Panthers finished their drives. Six times they entered the red zone, and they scored three touchdowns and three field goals. Coastal only scored on one red zone drive of four. Georgia Southern jumped on Coastal in a different fashion. Coastal trailed by a touchdown at half, but forced a quick punt from Georgia Southern and tied it up. Southern scored the next two times they had the ball, on a field goal, and a pick six of McCall. Suddenly, the Chants were down two scores again, and playing from behind. The final margin was also two scores. App State has yet to jump on anyone early all year long. They have trailed in the first half of every game this season. Something has to give here. The question that might get answered: Which team can finish better? The Chants have played four truly competitive games and have just 21 fourth quarter points to show for it. They have really only had a good second half in their win over Jacksonville State, in which they outlasted their opponent with a couple big plays and a lot of field goals. Going further, excluding the Duquesne game, the Chanticleers have only scored more than 10 points in any quarter once, against Jacksonville State. And why has all of this happened? It’s more than losing a head coach. It comes down to losing more than that. Coastal’s defense has fallen off because their offense has done the same. Those big defensive plays have not been there for the Chanticleers. They have forced just one turnover in the last two games, and managed just four quarterback hurries in the same span. They have accumulated just six sacks all season, and three came in one game. If the Mountaineers can take care of the ball, the Coastal defense will break. The Mountaineers will establish their rhythm early and often with the run game, and the deep shots will be there in the second half.

The First Pick

Beach Birds 27

Mountaineers 38

App State Football @ UL-Monroe

Posted on September 27, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (2-2) @ UL-Monroe (2-1)

Saturday, September 30th, 2023 8:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN +

Malone Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf Revolution

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.83

UL-Monroe: 52.73

Home: 2.46

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.64 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -13.5

Series: App State leads 6-1

Last Meeting: App State 59, UL-Monroe 28, October 30, 2021, Boone, NC

Sometimes when you think you do just about everything right, it still doesn’t work out. You can second guess your decisions, but the process was right. The results just did not show. From that point, you can either think about those decisions until it drives you crazy, or you can learn from it and move on. In college football, you have to move on. The time for dwelling in the past only puts you behind the following week. This is a new week, a completely different week. This is where the season truly begins. The Sun Belt title will be decided over the next couple months and there is not one team that appears head and shoulders above the rest. This might be the wildest Sun Belt season since App State joined the conference. The Sun Belt East race will be a gauntlet, but the Mountaineers will begin in the west with the Warhawks.

Monroe has had a rather shaky start to their season. After being throttled by Texas A&M on September 16th, the Warhawks were on bye last week, and needed it badly. Terry Bowden is trying to figure out his quarterback quagmire, having to alternate between Jiya Wright and Hunter Herring in the first three games. First it was Herring, who relieved Wright in a comeback win over Army, and seemingly won the starting job. The following week, Herring took a hit to his midsection and did not finish the game. That led to Jiya Wright starting against the Aggies. Brian Garcia logged a couple snaps, but did not fair much better. Now that we have reached the end of the first month of football, Monroe is still searching for guy that can stay on the field, by way of health or consistency. The Warhawks are averaging just 4.07 yards per passing attempt, which is the lowest figure in the country. They are one of two teams in the nation averaging less than 100 yards passing a game.

Running the football is something the Warhawks have been successful doing. It’s hard to determine whether it is a true strength of their offense, or if its out of necessity. As clearly one of the worst passing offenses to be found, it seems that Monroe’s best bet in the meantime is to shorten games and play ugly. Hunter Smith and Isaiah Woullard eclipsed the 100-yard mark against FCS opponent Lamar, but were contained against Texas A&M and always undersized Army. Smith broke off a 62-yard touchdown run in the win over the Black Knights, but carried the ball just seven times in the game. Considering that 46% of Monroe’s rushing yards this season came against Lamar, allows some doubt to creep back in my mind that this team can run the football. They have had some long runs, but the Warhawks are the eighth worst team in terms of offensive possession, and have the fewest first downs nationwide. The running game has allowed them to put points on the board, but on a drive-by-drive basis, they are not moving the chains enough.

For the first time this season, Joey Aguilar looked human. That could be part Wyoming, and part game plan. However, it’s unlikely that not scoring touchdowns is in the game plan. Aguilar did not connect on a touchdown pass for the first time this season. He did throw an interception, although the timing can hardly be blamed on him. Excluding his appearance against Gardner Webb, Aguilar has completed 54.5% of his passes, and his yardage totals since the North Carolina game have gone down with each game. The zero in the touchdown passes category sticks out. Failing to score a touchdown is why the Mountaineers lost. But it’s not all on Aguilar. The entire offense is responsible. Nate Noel had his worst game in terms of yards per carry, of the season. Only one receiver went over 50 yards. And lest we mention a field goal getting blocked leading to the winning margin with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Busted plays happen, and if your defense only relinquishes one a game, that’s not the end of the world. It becomes bad when the offense cannot find the paint. Regardless, not much more could be asked of by the Mountaineer defense. They limited Wyoming to just 208 yards on 42 plays. Furthermore, the Cowboys converted just three of their twelve third down attempts and were forced to punt eight times. Wyoming threw the ball for just 31 yards in the game, while being sacked three times on just 15 pass attempts. It was a pretty dominant performance. Take away the long touchdown run, and Wyoming averaged just 3.2 yards per play. Yet, it was not enough. Stopping the run is sneaking up as a slight concern, despite the Mountaineers being able to fend off just about every quarterback coming their way. The Apps have picked off six passes on the season and allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw just one touchdown pass, in addition to surrendering just five yards per pass attempt.

Last week went just about according to plan. I was not surprised at how the game played from a strategy perspective. Both teams knew what they were capable of doing on both sides of the ball. However games are won and lost each week on a few plays. Its just that some weeks, those plays are more glaring and obvious then others. Those plays stuck out big time last week. Those wacky plays are hard to predict, and that is what makes this sport so much fun to follow. We do not watch to see the same things over and over, but for the unexpected. So after two weeks off, and it appearing that Monroe will stick with Jiya Wright at quarterback, what can we expect? Anything from Monroe where they don’t run the ball 40-45 times to shorten the game will surprise me. This will be the third straight week the Mountaineers will be playing “one of the worst” offenses in the country. Just about every advanced metric supports that theory. That Warhawks are not very good on first or second down, which leads to being really bad on third downs. They have converted just 11/41 third down attempts. With the clock continuing to run on on first downs achieved by offenses, time of possession it starting to become a bigger indicator of offensive success, or a lack there of. It’s not true in call cases, as quick strike offenses buck this trend. But Monroe is not a quick strike offense. They are not even really an offense that strikes at all. Their high water mark of scoring this year was just 24 points against an FCS team for crying out loud. An FCS team they let sneak back into the game after going up 21-0. Many times, Lamar skill players ran circles around Monroe defenders, yet they tightened up in the red zone, and capitalized on miscues. Expect a bounce back game from the Mountaineers, finishing in the end zone, and keeping Monroe well beyond arm’s reach.

The First Pick

It’s a Bird.. or a plane? 16

Mountaineers 35

App State Football @ Wyoming

Posted on September 20, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (2-1) @ Wyoming (2-1)

Saturday, September 23rd, 2023 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: CBS Sports Network

War Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 29,181

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.56

Wyoming: 67.34

Home: 2.23

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.99 points

VegasInsider Line: Wyoming -2.5

Series: Series Tied 1-1

Last Meeting: App State 31, Wyoming 13, October 3, 2015, Boone, NC

After three games to open the season in the state of North Carolina, the Mountaineers will hit the high road for the first time in 2023. Wyoming’s Mar Memorial Stadium is difficult to get to, and its elevation is the highest in all the land. Their homefield advantage is similar to one that the Mountaineers enjoy, albeit several thousand feet higher above sea level. This will be an interesting test for the Mountaineers as its the first flight of the season compared to a short drive to Chapel Hill two weeks ago. This is also important for any potential bowl scenarios, whether that be eligibility or placement. Those non-conference games against Gardner-Webb and East Carolina do not have the same juice as this one-off game against Wyoming before starting conference play. Additionally, the Cowboys are riding the momentum of beating Texas Tech and also hanging with the Texas Longhorns for the majority of the game. It will be important for App State to come out ready to play, but not so amped that they lose their fire before it even gets started.

The Craig Bohl tenure at Wyoming has been unlike his run at North Dakota State. Bohl won three national titles for the Bison before heading to Wyoming, where he has been for ten seasons. Excluding 2020, where Wyoming played only six games, Bohl has won 6 or more games every season for six seasons running. The only gripe from some Cowboys fans is that Wyoming has not won more than 8 games in any of those years. Bohl has been consistent, but to the point of just above average. Wyoming’s best season under Bowl was in 2016, but still managed just 8 wins despite 6 conference triumphs. Administration has been as patient as Bohl’s offenses have been. Other programs might have cut bait, but it seems Wyoming knows who they are and what they are up against. You fire a coach, and its possible you bottom out, and then your program chases those 6-8 wins a year they were accustomed to.

The Cowpokes are not going to wow anyone with a thrilling offense. They are pro-style in nature. Not the current pro-style offenses that you see today, but more like those pro offenses of 20-30 years ago. The statistics do not pop off the page. It’s never about what they do, but more importantly, how they do it. In their three games the season, Wyoming has been patient with the ground game. They averaged 3.9 yards per carry against Texas Tech, 4.4 yards against FCS Portland State, and 4.1 yards against Texas. Those numbers are the epitome of patience. As a team, Wyoming has 61 more yards rushing than Nate Noel. Three different players have led the Pokes in rushing in each game. In Week 1, it was quarterback Andrew Peasley who dashed for 68 yards on 15 carries. Sam Scott had 70 yards on 11 carries against Portland State and Harrison Waylee ran for 110 yards on 18 carries against Texas. Waylee did have a 62 yard scamper versus Texas. Essentially, he had 17 other attempts that went for just 48 yards.

Nate Noel is getting a lot of love, and deservedly so. Averaging 145 yards per game on the ground is a strong number through three games. Noel has hogged the workload, and has been producing to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry. As much as Noel is responsible for the quick offensive start, the balanced passing game for the Mountaineers is equally responsible. Seven different receivers have caught touchdown passes. Dashaun Davis and Kaedin Robinson are completely different players, yet they are separated by just one yard on the stat sheet. Both have caught exactly ten passes, two touchdowns, and their longest plays are also both 34 yards. Robinson has the yardage edge 154-153. Likewise, Christian Horn and swiss army knife Milan Tucker also have exactly 83 yards and a touchdown, with Horn having two more catches than Tucker.

A couple of fluke plays made the score a lot closer with East Carolina then it should have been. It was kind of the same story back in 2021. The 33-19 score two years ago was not that close, and neither was this 43-28 final from Saturday. That says a lot about your program and what expectations are on a week to week basis. Both teams are completely different than 2021, but some things just never change. The App State defense was only responsible for 14 points, and half those points came on the first drive when East Carolina started a quarterback for the first time. It’s understandable to be cautious, but the point here remains. After the first drive, the Mountaineers gave up just a mere 7 points. Turning the Pirates over three times via interception gave fans glimpses of what this defense can be. Joey Aguilar did throw a bad interception, but as long as he tosses a couple touchdown passes a game, or three as was the case Saturday, it will be mostly forgotten as long as those mistakes are not made over and over.

Wyoming has earned an early reputation this season as a team that controls the ball commits very few mistakes. In three games, the Cowboys have accumulated 100 minutes of possession. On the flip side the Mountaineers have controlled the clock for 96 minutes. The Cowboys have only committed nine penalties on the season as well. The Mountaineers have been flagged just thirteen times, which is something that really has not been talked about. Appalachian has never really been a team that worries about penalties. Sometimes you play with passion and get hustle penalties, which are unlike flags called for incorrect formations or shifts. Those should be avoided. However, if you do all the other things correctly, penalty flags shouldn’t come in to play. It’s part of the game. But the fact the Mountaineers have been decent in that area has only made the offense that much more dangerous. The Mountaineers have 16 offensive touchdowns compared to the Cowboys nine on the season. Excluding overtime scores, Wyoming has averaged 20.3 points per game. East Carolina may have the worst offense in Division I football. Wyoming’s is better, but its still a bottom 20 offense in football in terms of yards, and bottom third in terms of gained first downs. But that is kind of the point here. Wyoming does not care about the flash, they want the substance. The onus is on the Mountaineer defense to come up with stops and get the ball to the offense. The Cowboys have converted third downs into first downs at a 37% clip on the young season, which ranks in the bottom third of FBS. It’s the most important statistic on Saturday. Get the Cowboys off the field, or else they employ the same strategy the Mountaineers did against the Tar Heels a couple weeks ago.

The First Pick

Poking and Prodding 20

Mountaineers 28

App State Football vs East Carolina

Posted on September 13, 2023 by Charles

Appalachian State (1-1) vs East Carolina (1-1)

Saturday, September 16th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.14

East Carolina: 64.83

Home: 2.24

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.55 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -9.5

Series: App State leads 20-12

Last Meeting: App State 33, East Carolina 19, September 2, 2021, Charlotte, NC

There are several ways to look at it. You can hold your head high and be proud. You could also drag your feet for a couple hundred yards and wonder about another big fish that wiggled away. You might even do both of things at the same time. And then you hear the cries, whining and disrespect. From social media posts, to remarks made by those with the title head coach. “I’m proud of my football team” said one. “I’m glad we don’t have to play them again” said another. Those leaders who receive more praise than they deserve, and more criticism at their expense at same time. Only you can choose your leader. You can run with the guy who will run at your side into battle, or you can run and hide. The Mountaineers will never run and hide from a challenge, but embrace it and learn from it. This weekend will be another challenge. Traffic on the roads and entering the gates will be an adventure. There is going to be a ton of people in the High Country this weekend. A third consecutive in-state foe awaits the home team. Will you embrace it, or run away?

Coming into this season, East Carolina and App State had similar scenarios facing their team. The Pirates have a lot of new faces playing critical roles, and most of those were on the offensive side of the ball. Holton Ahlers exhausted his eligibility and Mason Garcia has been given the start for the first two games at quarterback. Filling in at running back, in place of Keaton Mitchell, has been Rahjai Harris. It’s been an uphill climb in these first two games for East Carolina in filling those holes. Ahlers and Mitchell are both on NFL rosters as we speak. Garcia has had an especially rough time. He has thrown for 142 yards in two games, completing just 51% of his passes, with two interceptions and one touchdown. That one touchdown pass went for 2 yards to a tight end after East Carolina’s defense fell on a Marshall fumble at the three yard line. That was the first touchdown of the season for the Pirates, and it took them nearly 88 minutes to do so. Garcia’s longest completion of the season went a whole fourteen yards. Harris is the leading running back on the team with 51 yards.

In week one, Michigan took it easy on East Carolina, cruising to a 30-3 win. The Pirates had the ball a total of nine times, with three of those drives resulting in a three and out. Just five drives resulted in ten or more yards gained. Those turned into two punts, one turnover on downs, a missed field goal, and a made field goal. The made field goal occurred on the last play of the game. Without getting into too much detail, the Pirates are running a lot of plays, but they cannot get down the field. The Pirates averaged 4.3 yards per play against Michigan and just 3.9 yards per play last week against Marshall. Additionally, the Pirates have been whistled for 23 penalties for 230 yards in just two games. Numbers like that lead to a grossly inefficient 34% on third down conversions, which ranks 101st out of 130 teams on the young season.

Multiple storylines have emerged following another close loss to a P5/P4/Autonomy school on the road. The biggest one, is Joey Aguilar. Plain and simple. His story is just beginning to unfold. One side of the field had one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Joey Aguilar outplayed him, and not for one second did the moment feel too big for him. He could have completed a few more passes, but that’s being picky. The passes that connected went for 12.5 yards per completion. He avoided negative plays with his arm and legs. Even with an assumed lack of depth behind him, he played big and owned every moment. Throwing for a cool 275 yards and running for 42 more. The one interception he’ll learn from, but it did not account for the loss. Calling Aguilar a game manager does not give him enough credit. Joey Aguilar is a gamer, and I can’t wait to see what he has in store for us next.

App State’s defensive strategy was wise on Saturday night. Try to keep Drake Maye from beating you. For the most part, that worked. For only the third time since 2015, North Carolina won a game without throwing a touchdown pass. The flip side of that, was that big plays in the running game boosted the Tar Heels efforts. Maye routinely checked to running plays to avoid throwing against a secondary that was dropping seven and eight players into coverage. In all, the strategy worked as a team effort. A loss in overtime is nothing to be ashamed of, especially on the road, in games that you are not “supposed” to win. However, the balance could be hard to strike between improving the run defense and the strategy of keeping the play in front of you. That balance becomes especially more difficult after losing Brendan Harrington for the season due to injury.

Perhaps this discussion is slightly premature, but there is some discussion on the banks of the Tar River about whether or not Mason Garcia should continue as the Pirates starting quarterback. Garcia, who is listed at 6’5 and 249 pounds fits the typical prototype East Carolina quarterback size we have seen the from the past. But Garcia is having issues staying in the pocket. The Pirates do call some designed runs for Garcia, on delay draws from the shotgun formation. That has led to Garcia leading the team in carries and rushing yards. But, either his receivers are not getting open, or his pocket is breaking down before they are open, or Garcia is concerned with protection. It possible the game has not slowed down for him yet. Either way you cut it, Garcia has happy feet, and when the throw is not there when he wants it to be, he takes off upfield. This had led some to start clamoring for backup Alex Flinn. Garcia had very little experience coming into 2023, and Flinn has even less. Flinn has played in both games this season, early on against Michigan, and finished the game against Marshall once it was out of reach. He is a fifth year redshirt junior, who played a total of five snaps before this season. At this point, East Carolina isn’t hitting the panic button, but they have been looking at it pretty hard. At some point they have to start scoring some points or else their defense will be gassed come mid-October. The Pirate defense likes to play down hill in the run game, but their secondary have been roasted in two games, surrendering 270 yards passing a game, and 12.5 yards per catch. The Mountaineers are likely to remain patient in the run game to an extent, but the confidence of this past weekend can only propel them forward with Joey Aguilar becoming more comfortable. One would assume that Nate Noel will be looking for an eventual breather after fifty carries in the first two games, but the formula appears to be working for now.

The First Pick

Sinking Ships 17

Mountaineers 35

Big C's Tailgate

Author Archives: Charles

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