Author Archives: Charles

Appalachian State (RV) vs #25 Clemson

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (1-0) vs Clemson (0-1)

Saturday, September 7th, 2024 8:00pm EST

TV/Video: ACC Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 81,500

Surface: Natural Grass

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.56

Clemson: 80.71

Home: 3.82

Clemson is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.97 points

VegasInsider Line: Clemson -17

Series: Clemson leads 5-0

Last Meeting: Clemson 41 App State 10, September 12, 2015, Clemson, SC

The first test is over. Nothing to get excited about one way or another, but the second will be tougher. Appalachian finds itself knowing there is a lot of time to grow, which is much better place to be than thinking you have it all figured out. Both teams find themselves in an interesting spot. Clemson might find themselves in a semi-must win situation. Nobody wants to be 0-2 to start the season at any level of football. You start questioning yourself and what you are doing. Appalachian is looking for that win that most would consider a resume booster. It’s an opportunity to prove that your team belongs that does not come often for most schools. It’s not and end of the world scenario for the Mountaineers if they were to lose, but it could signal the beginning of something special if they were to win. The pressure will always lie with the favorite in these type of games. The humiliation would be overpowering, much greater than the expected result. But isn’t that why we play the games? To write the storylines that could meander down a path that nobody expects, from the lowest of valleys to the highest peaks?

It really feels like we could talk about this same Clemson team last week, and opinions would unlikely change. Just don’t ask a Clemson fan. The Tigers have had good seasons of late. They just have not had great seasons. That’s hard to accept. Mountaineer fans can certainly relate. When the ceiling of your program’s success is competing not only for conference championships and bowl wins, but also national championships, chances are you are going to fall short more times than you will achieve that ultimate prize. As far as last week goes for Clemson, a loss to Georgia in Atlanta is nothing to be ashamed of. But it does matter what you look like when you lose. Last year Clemson lost at Duke on the scoreboard, but dominated the game from a statistical standpoint. They just made too many mistakes on a Monday night of the opening week of the season. They also lost two games in overtime, to Florida State and Miami, and then fell at NC State. Three of those four losses were on the road. The talent remains in Death Valley, they just have been on the wrong end of some tough games.

The statistics are kind of ugly from last weekend for Clemson. They could not get much going against the Georgia defense. The Tigers ran just 52 plays, averaging 3.6 per yards play, and failed to eclipse 200 yards of total offense. They also failed to convert two red zone chances into touchdowns. Running back Phil Mafah carried sixteen times for just 59 yards at 3.7 yards per carry. Georgia was ready and they played up to the challenge. It was a really tough day for Clemson. Time will tell how good Georgia really is, but chances are, they are national title contenders. It’s still possible that Clemson makes the playoff in a suddenly wide-open Atlantic Coast Conference race, and they will get a bye next week before facing off against North Carolina State. However, the positives exist for the Tigers. Their defensive front seven is absolutely loaded with deep NFL talent on the line and backers who are more than capable of making things difficult on opposing offenses. The Tigers are weaker in the secondary, but that is only due to how good they are up front.

It was a good opener for App State this past Saturday. Despite allowing East Tennessee to draw the score close in the third quarter, it never truly felt like the result was in doubt. A busted defensive assignment felt like the only true blunder. But as quickly as the score was 17-10, the Mountaineers mashed the throttle and put the game away. After turning the ball over on downs in ETSU territory to open the second half, the Mountaineers scored touchdowns on their next three drives and kept the Bucs from sniffing the end zone. Joey Aguilar accounted for four total touchdowns, two by air, and two on the ground. Aguilar looks quicker and more decisive on the read-option runs. Although he ran just five times for nineteen yards, he was committed to the play call. It had the look of quarterbacks from the past who were dangerous on the ground. Aguilar also extended a couple plays with his legs that drew plenty of cheers from the crowd.

Last week we talked about the number of turnovers the Mountaineers forced in the latter half of the 2023 season. That’s one main reason I was completely comfortable with the final score, and the way the game played out on Saturday. Turnovers are difference makers in games. East Tennessee did a good job of taking care of the ball. Even if there was just one turnover in the game, the possibility exists the game becomes more lopsided. If the Mountaineers are going to beat Clemson, they’ll likely need to be on the plus side of the turnover column. When App State has won the turnover battle under Shawn Clark, they hold an 18-1 record. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has vowed in press conferences earlier this week to get the ball to his young playmakers, and that his staff had failed in doing that against Georgia. Swinney remains confident in much maligned quarterback Cade Klubnik stating that he is “our guy”. Klubnik was sacked twice and threw one interception last week.

For the sake of Tiger fans, Clemson needs to make a comeback. For Mountaineer fans, we wouldn’t mind if that comeback waited a couple more weeks. There are so many similarities between these two schools at their core. Both universities enrollments have exceeded the size of their towns in which they inhabit. They love the sport of football and they expect to win. The activities of town revolve around the universities. It’s gameday in town for everyone, even those that do not hold a ticket. Additionally, if the winning doesn’t happen, the fans will remind you until you do. It’s quite simple. Sure, there are a lot of factors, such as money that get in the way of college football, and create discrepancies between Clemson and Appalachian. But in the end, its about winning games. Clemson has a 7-8 record in it’s last 15 games against P4 opponents. That does not cut it at Clemson. Likewise, Appalachian does not want to go .500 over a similar stretch of games versus peer opponents. So clearly, the natives have been restless in upstate South Carolina. Dabo Swinney holds on to the hope that Cade Klunbik and other players will evolve into premier producers on the gridiron, but in the meantime it all sums up to talent and potential. Clemson missed on quarterback prospect DJ Uiagalelei. More than anything, I think that has set them back, especially considering a team that relied heavily on star quarterback power to win national championships. A similar thing happened to Appalachian. Sometimes recruits do not pan out like you hope, and your team wins fewer ballgames than they were used to. It happens. As far as Saturday night goes, there are a lot of outcomes. I think the Tigers come out fired up, and App State needs to be prepared for that. The Mountaineers cannot afford to lose the game in the opening moments. So the way the Mountaineers weather that storm is by being steady and never panicking. A gameplan with appropriate tempo has worked well for Shawn Clark in games against Texas A&M, James Madison and Miami. In all three of those games, App State had multiple ball carriers eclipse ten carries. They were not necessarily successful, but they created those “dirty runs” that coaches talk about that bleed clock and shorten the game. It all comes down to completing passes on second and third down to keep the chains moving. I do believe that the game will be tight and the Mountaineers have kept eight straight Power 4 opponents within eight points. Here is to hoping the Mountaineers have just the right combination of plays made at the right time to leave Death Valley as winners.

The First Pick

Cheeto Hands 20

Mountaineers 24

Appalachian State (RV) vs East Tennessee State

Posted on by
Reply

Saturday, August 31st, 2024 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.12

ETSU: 41.15

Home: 2.45

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 34.42 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -33.5

Series: App State leads 32-14-1

Last Meeting: App State 42 ETSU 7, August 31, 2019, Boone NC

We have reached the dawn of new season, where hope abounds and everyone has a chance to reach their goals. At Appalachian, those goals have always been to win a conference championship and win a bowl game. But now, those goals might include something bigger. College football at its highest level now has a true playoff to conclude its season. Previously, it was just an invitational. With the expansion to twelve teams, every team across the country feels they have a better chance to obtain something that was once only given to a select few. However, a lot of work has to be done between now and then. Those games will be played in late December and January. The season starts in August. The work to get to August started months ago. A rather challenging first month of non-conference play awaits the Mountaineers, but it all starts this week with the home opener at The Rock.

Welcome back to football season and welcome back to Boone, Tre Lamb. Formerly of Gardner Webb after a four-year stint in Boiling Springs, Lamb jumped across the ridge to Johnson City to revive an ETSU program who has stumbled since bringing football back. Back-to-back 3-8 seasons forced the Buccaneers brass to make a change after 2023. Nearly two dozen former Gardner Webb players joined Lamb on the trek to the Tri-Cites. So do not take this game as what it is worth on paper. Tre Lamb did not take the job at ETSU to sustain a football program where three wins is acceptable. Lamb is a winner and a program builder, and he is doing exactly what it takes to start from the ground up the same way he did at Webb. There might be a quick turnaround for the Bucs in year one with all that Gardner Webb talent, and they’ll likely be a much better team at the end of the season than they are this week.

Most notable among the incoming Gardner Webb transfers to East Tennessee is quarterback Jaylen King. The assumption here is that he will be the starter for the Bucs, as he started the last seven games for Tre Lamb last year. He got his feet wet against East Carolina and Robert Morris before finding a groove for a stretch of games. As a freshman in 2023, King had some ups and downs, but it was enough for Webb to go 5-2 in his starts. In games where he threw multiple interceptions, he was 0-2. He finished the season with 1,223 passing yards in those seven games, with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. For a little over half a season, those are pretty good numbers. As a true dual threat, the numbers that jump off the page are his rushing statistics. He racked up 403 total rushing yards and went over 35 yards in five of his nine appearances. In seven of those nine games, he was credited with double digit rushing attempts. His mobility was very much a part of the Gardner Webb offense, so I would expect the same in 2024 for ETSU.

We have all seen, read and heard the prognostications after a long offseason, which is no longer just about recruiting high school players, but also revolves around recruiting your own players and those who played at other colleges in their career. It’s here to stay. You might not necessarily like this new normal of college football. That’s completely fine. At least we have made it to late August and all that talk is over and we can all focus on playing or watching the games. The Mountaineers return a lot of offensive production. So when you think of production, you think of carries, receptions, yards and touchdowns. You think of the names you have heard over and over. Kaedin Robinson, Christian Horn, Eli Wilson, Kanye Roberts and Anderson Castle to name a few. You might even think of a guy named Joey Aguilar, who at this time last year was just a name. He was the newcomer, the outsider and the one we all knew the least about. Quickly, Joey Aguilar has become a household name, tabbed as the Sun Belt’s Newcomer of the Year in 2023, Cure Bowl MVP, and Sun Belt Preseason Player of the year in 2024 while setting six schools records in just 14 games played.

The turnaround on the defensive side of the ball in 2023 could mostly be attributed to the “Star” defensive package, which features a hybrid safety that can be used in a multiple formations to confuse offenses. Long story short, the Mountaineers had to get the athletes on the field. That led to a five game win streak, including a victory over a ranked James Madison team. Those impacts of the defensive switch were felt at all positions. The Mountaineers had 25 takeaways, which was tops in the Sun Belt and fourth overall in FBS. The Mountaineers intercepted eight passes in a four game stretch to end the regular season. They recovered fumbles in each of the last five games of the season, including three in the washout that was the Cure Bowl. Jordan Favors had three of his four interceptions in the latter half of the year. Linebacker Caden Sullivan tallied 5 tackles or more in each of the last five games of the season. One could see the transformation by the so-called eye test, and it also carried over to the stat sheet.

There are plenty ways to look at this matchup, and yes there will be a lot more Gardner Webb 2023 comparisons to analyze. Both head coaches are familiar with their quarterbacks. Jaylen King has a few starts under his belt and Joey Aguilar has started thirteen games himself. That was not the case between the two teams last year. App State had to deal with a first drive injury to Ryan Burger and figure out when to pull the plug early. That advantage went to Gardner Webb in the first half. A fourteen yard punt by Gardner Webb set up App State on the plus side of the field at the 32-yard line. With 2:13 remaining in the first half, Joey Aguilar threw a strike to Kaedin Robinson that will never be forgotten. Joey’s first pass went for a touchdown. The Mountaineers took the lead into halftime at 14-10. Gardner Webb took the opening kickoff of the second half and drove the field for a score. The following drive, Joey Aguilar took the ball for a second time, while trailing, and went down the field immediately to retake the lead at 21-17. Webb retook the lead on the following drive at 24-21. Then, Joey Aguilar got the ball for a third time, went down the field, and retook the lead at 28-24. This was a guy in his first career Division I start, thrown into the mix, and just dropped bombs. That was also an experienced Gardner Webb team led by Tre Lamb who had established his team for four years and taken them to consecutive trips to the FCS playoffs. The ETSU team we will see Saturday is not as talented as that Gardner Webb team from 2023. Obviously they have added a lot of pieces from Gardner Webb, but what Lamb had established in four years simply cannot be replicated in a few months. Gardner Webb converted 8 of 18 third down attempts, were 2/3 on fourth down, and scored on all three red zone opportunities a season ago. They played just about perfect outside of a couple untimely interceptions while App State was adjusting on the fly to a quarterback injury. They shortened the game despite thirteen possessions. That’s a lot of words to say I think we see a similar strategy from ETSU. Now, Tre Lamb has said all the things he was supposed to say during media availability and his coaches show. He’s hinted at trick plays and changing looks from last year. And certainly Appalachian will look different too. The “Star” package was not utilized until midway through the season. Lamb didn’t see it with his eyes last year. He’s been looking at App State for a week, but that’s all tape. East Tennessee had issues moving the ball last year as a whole. Their offense will be better, but I’m not sure the defense will hold up after surrendering 270 passing yards per game and a 3:1 TD/INT ratio to Southern Conference teams last year.

The First Pick

EZTZ 17

Mountaineers 41

App State Football vs Miami (OH)

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (8-5, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Miami (OH) (11-2, 7-1 MAC)

Saturday, December 16th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ABC

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

FBC Mortgage Stadium

Capacity: 45,301

Surface: Tifway 419 Bermuda

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.98

Miami: 68.36

Home: n/a

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.62 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4.5

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Last time out did not go as planned. Troy was a deep and very experienced squad, and the Mountaineers are still a little green in spots. It gives App State a measuring stick to what needs to be done in the future to complete the reset. But that process has begun. And the mantra in the last half of the year was to keep digging. The breakout was coming. Luckily the Mountaineers had two chances to bring some hardware back to Boone this season. The last couple weeks have been tough, knowing for some players who are playing their last game in black and gold that this moment was coming. But they do have one more opportunity to leave their legacy. Before them is a game that can set the table for 2024 and beyond that can get App State back to the place they belong. It’s been 42 years since App State played on ABC, and they earned this opportunity to show the world what this school is all about.

This will be the first ever meeting between Miami and Appalachian State. There is zero history to fall back on or even reminisce about. The Mountaineers have enjoyed success against the Mid-American conference of late. App State won their first three bowls games from 2015-2017 against Ohio, and Toledo twice, but have not faced anyone from the MAC since then. Miami has had their best season since 2010 when they finished with a 10-4 record and won the MAC title. The Redhawks eleven wins this season is the most since 2003 when they finished 13-1 and won the MAC title. Chuck Martin has been the coach at Miami since 2014 and this was his second MAC championship with the first coming in 2019 when the Redhawks finished 8-6. Martin is 56-61 all time at Miami in his first head coaching job at the FBS level after coaching six seasons at Grand Valley State where he went 74-7 and won two Division II championships.

The Redhawks nonconference slate appeared challenging to start the season. They had the Miami from Coral Gables, Fla. and Cincinnati on their schedule along with FCS Delaware State and perennial FBS bottom feeder UMass. The Hurricanes went 7-5, Cincinnati squandered to 3-9 along with UMass, and Delaware State was victorious just once. Six of the Redhawks opponents finished with four or fewer wins, and only four teams finished with 7 or more wins. This is what typically happens in the MAC. A lot of teams play poorly, and a handful of teams make impressive runs, but you always wonder how good they really are because of the other members in the conference holding them down. Now Miami did get an overtime win on the road in Cincinnati, in the annual Battle for the Victory Bell. It was the first in the series for Miami since 2005. So maybe, after all the soft schedule talk, there was some premonitions of Miami enjoying a special season back in September.  

The hardest thing to look back on is a lopsided final score that didn’t represent how well the game was played for a good 40 minutes. Slowly the dam broke, and it all unraveled in the fourth quarter. No shame in losing, but the waning moments of the championship game was sure to leave the Mountaineers unhappy. App State lost out on their chance for one championship and will move on to another. After sitting out of bowl season in 2022 and losing a championship game and bowl game in 2021, this postseason appearance is critical. We were all witnesses to the five-game win streak and ultimate turnaround of the 2023 season. The true measure of that switch will come with a bowl victory. It’s very tough to imagine even thinking like this. App State won their first six bowls game, a record that will likely never be matched. And the only bowl loss was to a generational passing offense with the Mountaineers licking their wounds in the secondary from opt outs and injuries. But that is the case anymore in college football. The postseason no longer looks like the regular season and your roster and strategy flips almost overnight.

So, in terms of acting like bowl games are the postseason, it really is a preseason-type game to prepare for the 2024 season. There are plenty of transfers on both sidelines who contributed to their team throughout the season, who will not contribute to this bowl game. But as always is the case with App State football, an absence by one player creates an opportunity for another. This game will further open the door for players like Makai Jackson, Dalton Stroman and Kanye Roberts to breakthrough and help cement roles and potential legacies for the future. We all remember performances in bowl games from names that will never be forgotten. The Zach Matics walk off in the first Camellia Bowl. Darrynton Evans’ kickoff return for a touchdown for the following year in Camellia Two. I am going to keep going. Jalin Moore’s three touchdowns in Toledo Two to go along with Clifton Duck’s interception and ensuing antics. Wide receiver Malik Williams tossing not one, but two touchdown passes against MTSU in New Orleans One. Thomas Hennigan mossing the UAB Blazers for two touchdowns in New Orleans Two. And finally, Camerun Peoples setting a single game rushing record to go along with five touchdowns against North Texas in Myrtle.

You may notice that we have not really dug into the game or yearly statistics just yet. Honestly, there is not a lot to choose from. The Mountaineer defense will face a familiar feeling this week as they did earlier in the season. For a stretch of games, quarterback uncertainty on the opposing sideline made it difficult to scout and prepare. While that issue fizzled as the season went on the Mountaineer defense began making major strides. The turnovers started flowing which triggered a five-game win streak. So, enter the Miami Redhawks who lost quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season ending injury. Gabbert had started 39 games in his career and is responsible for 66 touchdowns. Aveon Smith led the way from the October injury for Gabbert through the conference championship game against Toledo. Smith then cited his intent to transfer as a graduate with two years remaining to play. That leads Miami to turn to Henry Hesson and Maddox Kopp. Hesson has appeared in three games in his career and Kopp has yet to see the playing field for Miami this season. This is why this situation feels less like the continuation of the 2023 season and more like an audition for next season. This is not new to college football, but it is new to App State. It’s bowl season, so anything is really on the table. You could see a completely different Miami offense or one that plays a lot more conservative than usual. Whatever comes from the quarterback position from Miami is likely to decide the game. Otherwise, the Redhawk offense does not come across as explosive. They average 331 yards a game, which is 100th out of 131 teams. App State opponents ULM, ECU and Wyoming are behind the Redhawks nationally in total offense. That provided Mountaineer fans two close games and one lopsided. The close games were both on the road, way back in September. The defense is the Miami calling card. They hold opponents to just 325 yards per game, which is good enough for 27th nationally. The only other App State foes with top 50 defenses were Troy, Wyoming and East Carolina. It’s interesting that the teams that might resemble Miami the most on paper were App State opponents at the beginning of the season. Miami has more offense than East Carolina over the course of the season, but what does Miami give back with a third and fourth option at quarterback playing in the game? The Wyoming defense was pretty good in how they kept opposing offenses in front of them. The problem the Mountaineers had against Wyoming was scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Miami has allowed just 36 red zone trips from opponents and gave up touchdowns just half the time. That will be a huge key for the App offense, in a game where rain could have an impact. I question the Miami offense having enough, especially considering this is the best passing attack their defense will see all year, rain or shine. Give me the Apps to cover going away.

The First Pick

MyHammy 17

Mountaineers 34

App State Football vs Troy (Sun Belt Championship)

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Troy (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, December 2nd, 2023 4:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Veteran Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Prograss

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.54

Troy: 74.16

Home: 2.33

Troy is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.95 points

VegasInsider Line: Troy -6

Series: App State leads 8-3

Last Meeting: App State 32, Troy 28, September 17, 2022, Boone, NC

For the ninth consecutive year, App State has won at least five home games. Three straight years averaging over 30,000 fans at Kidd Brewer Stadium, and just a couple hundred away from eclipsing 35,000. There is no doubt, when you come to Boone for college football, you leave entertained. However, Kidd Brewer Stadium is quiet for now, and the Mountaineers will take their show on the road for the final two games of the season. That has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Two more games. Only twenty FBS schools will play their thirteenth game this weekend. For the fourth time, App State will represent their division in the conference championship in just six opportunities. This feeling is the familiar territory we missed last year. It hurts to think about it the past, but it should make the current moments worth it more in the end. Whether the Mountaineers win or lose on Saturday will not define their season. Troy is a worthy opponent, and they won the conference a season ago. But that was last year, and nothing that happened a year ago will have an impact on this game.

Ten of the fourteen Sun Belt coaches picked Troy to represent the West division back in late July. The other four coaches picked South Alabama. Troy led their division for most of the season and cleared the division by three games. Only two of their conference games were decided by less than seven points being a two-point loss to James Madison and a touchdown win over Louisiana just a couple weeks ago. Only FCS Stephen F. Austin scored more than 30 points on the Troy defense, and that was the first game of the season. Western Kentucky and Louisiana were the only teams that scored 24 points on Troy. Everyone else: 17 points or fewer. For the season, Troy has allowed just 13 points per game to conference opponents, but that number has ticked up slightly the last three weeks to 18.3 points per game. Considering their opponents were two of the worst teams in the conference in Southern Miss and UL-Monroe, that might throw some caution to the wind. Louisiana was playing for bowl eligibility and got there, while the others were playing out the string.  

The Troy defense is elite. Easy to see there. Does not a take genius to figure that out. The Trojan offense is one of the better offenses in the league, but it does not compare to leading statistical categories like their counterparts do. Quarterback Gunnar Watson has played in parts of six college football seasons, all at Troy. Watson was on the 2018 Troy team that lost to App State 21-10, which was a winner-take-all game to represent the East in the inaugural Sun Belt Championship. Watson did not play against App State in 2018 or 2019 but has played in the last three matchups. None of them have ended well for Watson although last year was the closest, he and Troy had come.  In those three games, Watson has completed just over 60% of his passes for 526 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He has thrown an interception in each game he has played against the Mountaineers, who coincidentally lead the Sun Belt with 15 interceptions this season and have eight interceptions in their last four games. The Mountaineers are 7-1 this season when intercepting a pass.

With senior day recognitions, Armanti Edwards’ number retirement and generally cool weather, the Mountaineers started a little slow last Saturday, but took advantage of four Georgia Southern turnovers to pull away. The Mountaineers scored immediately after each Eagle turnover, with two scores quickly responded by one play touchdowns. The Mountaineers also dominated the middle eight minutes of the game, scoring an unheard of 17 points even with a turnover of their own. After the score was tied at 17-17 with just 2:33 remaining in the second quarter, App State reeled off 34 consecutive points before allowing a kickoff return touchdown and field goal that cut a three score lead to a three score lead by Southern. Yes, you read that right. It has been amazing, week after week, how the Mountaineers offense can put up 532 yards and it feel like everyone got a piece of the pie. Eight receivers caught passes, with seven catching two or more. Three different running backs eclipsed 60 yards, which was more than the Eagles leading rusher.

The win last week coupled with James Madison taking out their frustrations on Coastal Carolina has put the Mountaineers in the spot they always hoped to be in by playing for a conference championship. The turnaround has been a true team effort. The offense can always play better, but when buoyed by their defense, a team can take on a completely different look. Weeks ago, we discussed slow starts with offense and it was hardly even noticeable this past week. If anything, this game resembled a microcosm of the entire season. A slower start that led to convincing win. Once the floodgates opened the Eagles were toast. Saturday marked the third straight game the Mountaineers recovered a fumble. They had just three in the previous nine games. Troy does not give up a ton of sacks, but all twenty-three sacks have come in six games. Turnovers or other impact plays, whether by attacking the ball at the line of scrimmage, on special teams, or in the secondary is what has made it tough for teams to overcome the Mountaineers and their offense.

What more could anyone ask for in a championship game? In the era of the Sun Belt championship game, the participants are usually decided by results that mattered in the regular season. Sometimes, there was a head-to-head battle that broke a tie in each division. In 2018, App State beat Troy in the regular season finale in a game that decided who would host the title game. In 2019 & 2021, the App State and Louisiana regular season winner would eventually host and win the conference championship. Last season, Troy defeated South Alabama in the regular season and hosted. Coastal Carolina defeated Marshall in the regular season which gave them the opportunity to participate. Hosting has mattered over the years. A road team has yet to win a conference championship game and usually the hottest team has also claimed the title. In 2018 and 2019, App State won their last six games in respective years. Louisiana won their last thirteen games in 2021, and Troy won their last eleven games last year. If you have noticed, we do not talk about 2020, because there was no game, cough, cough. Arguably, this is shaping up to be the best matchup in the history of the conference championship because we have two teams who are streaking right now. Troy is riding a nine-game streak, while the Mountaineers have won five in a row. The Trojans won the division going away and App State has had their back against the wall for last half of the season. In the last five weeks, Troy has been scoring touchdowns almost exclusively in the air. Gunnar Watson has fifteen touchdown passes during that span, and other Troy quarterbacks have tossed for two more scores. The Troy ground game has steadily run for a single touchdown in each of the last five games as well. Troy has determined their offensive course of action and have not strayed from it. That’s an easy path to take when their defense has been so consistent all year long. But what happens when that Troy teams sees the most balanced opponent they have faced in a long time. The last five Troy opponents are not exactly lighting the world on fire. Sure, both schools have had common opponents. The timing of when App and Troy played those four games gives us zero indication as to what we could expect this weekend. What we do know is that Kimani Vidal is a good running back who does not go down on first contact. He averages 112 yards a game, but Vidal gained 493 yards in two games against Stephen F. Austin and Arkansas State, who was dead last in the conference in rushing defense. In fact, over a third of Vidal’s rushing yards for the season come in those two games. Against James Madison, Vidal was held to 27 yards and there are plenty other examples where Vidal was limited, yet Troy was able to prevail. Keeping Vidal contained will do wonders for the backside of the Mountaineer defense. This is the true game within the game. Whether or not Troy can find enough rhythm on offense could be a deciding factor. Troy is well balanced, and if the Mountaineers can keep them off balance, and can roam the secondary, it will be a huge boost. Eventually the road team woes in the conference championship will come to and end. This might as well be this week.

The First Pick

T-roy 26

Mountaineers 31

App State Football vs Georgia Southern

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs Georgia Southern (6-5, 3-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 25th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.23

Georgia Southern: 62.65

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.01 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -8.5

Series: App State leads 20-16-1

Last Meeting: App State 48, Georgia Southern 51, November 26, 2022, Statesboro, GA

It’s difficult to describe if you were not present last week, but everything about last Saturday felt like big time football. Compliments to James Madison for a great environment and thanks to College Gameday. We all knew what the panelists would say last week. They were present to tout their hosts. As expected, as App State received the same treatment from the crew last season. But that week is behind us. The list of schools who want to be App State’s rival is long. Get in line JMU. Meanwhile the last game of the season gives us the school who is in front of that line. The gap between the Eagles and whoever else is next is still wide. It will be hard for anyone to supplant the hate and respect that App State and Georgia Southern have for each other. So be thankful for what you have this week. Give thanks for what makes you happy, and what makes you angry. Even if what gives you those feelings are the same thing.

Earlier this season, people wanted to believe that Georgia Southern might be a legitimate threat to contend for the Sun Belt East. Over the course of time, just about everyone has had an inside line for just that. About a month ago, the Eagles were sitting at 3-1 in conference play with their only loss to James Madison. They had four winnable games in front of them, but three of those games were on the road. First came a loss at Texas State in which the Eagles lost by three touchdowns, but it was truly never that close. The Bobcats once led 45-10 before the Eagles closed the gap. Then the Eagles went to West Virginia to face a Marshall team that had scored less than ten points in each of their previous three games. Southern gave up 38 points to a redshirt freshman quarterback, which included a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Then Old Dominion stymied the Eagles on Senior Night in Statesboro, playing a one score game, and defeating the Eagles for the first time in their schools’ history.  

Briefly, we need to discuss this Georgia Southern defense. The 38 points they surrendered to a struggling Marshall team is eye-opening. But if you look back through the entire season you will realize this has been a struggle all year. The Eagles have given up 27 or more points eight times. They have allowed 35 or more on five occasions. So, let’s dissect those five teams. One is currently 4-7 UAB, who is winless on the road this year, but is 21st in total offense in the country. Wisconsin has the 80th best total offense in term of yards, and has scored just 28 offensive touchdowns this season, five on the Eagles. James Madison dropped a 41-spot on Southern while the Dukes’ offense averaged 7.1 yards per play. Texas State scored 45 points on eleven possessions. Seven of their first eight possessions were scores. The other was a fumble. Southern surrendered two second half leads to Marshall and the Herd fumbled four times, but the Eagles only fell on one of them. Marshall converted just two of nine third downs and lost the turnover battle by two.

It’s safe to say that optimism has transitioned into confidence. Going into last week, you could safely assume a good college football game was upon us. Comparing statistics only goes so far when you have good teams facing off against each other. Eventually those kinds of games come down to a few plays on either side. Making those plays was none other than each team’s quarterback and best wide receiver. The Dukes had only given up two touchdown passes in the previous five games, and Joey Aguilar threw three scores, two to Kaedin Robinson, including the walk-off winner in overtime. Another silent assassin was Eli Wilson. Per usual, nobody covers the App State tight end, and Wilson had a career day with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Neither team could run the ball on Saturday, so it came down to Joey Aguilar making the extra play in overtime.  

The evolution of the new Mountaineer defense continues. The Dukes are a well balanced offense that leaned more toward the pass. They had not been a top team in the conference running the ball and the Mountaineers held them to their second-lowest rushing output of the season of just 61 yards. But lately the Dukes had leaned more into the pass which might have played right into the Mountaineers newfound strength. Jordan McCloud still put a solid 289 yards passing, but most of those yards came late in the fourth quarter when Madison was making their late push. The hard work was done in the first half. The six first half possessions for Madison resulted in three punts, two turnovers and one made field goal. As we documented last week, Madison made their pushes in the third quarter most of the year. Madison came out in the third quarter and punted twice and missed a field goal. Even when the Mountaineers played softer late in the fourth quarter, they still forced long touchdown drives of sixteen and twelve plays to keep momentum at bay.

The game this weekend appears to be between two teams heading opposite directions. Both teams are streaking, the Mountaineers winning four in a row, while the Eagles have dropped three straight. Most of us know how dangerous this game is annually, and especially so when it appears that one team is considered highly favored over another. More often than not in this rivalry its harder to win the game you are supposed to win. The new Georgia Southern presents a different kind of challenge than the Mountaineers have seen most of the year. In the second year of Clay Helton’s transformation, he was not as lucky as 2022 in getting the quarterback in the transfer portal he wanted. Davis Brin does lead the conference in passing yards over McCloud of JMU and App State’s Aguilar, but he is not efficient. Even with close to 100 more attempts than Aguilar, he lags in touchdown passes. Part of that is the entire Georgia Southern offense stalls in the red zone. The Eagles have crossed their opponents 20-yard line on 51 occasions but have managed just 26 touchdowns. Seventeen other times the Eagles kicked field goals. It leads to having a great statistic of scoring 85% of the time down close, but that’s simply way too many field goals and not enough touchdowns over the course of a season. It’s great for Southern that they have a good kicker who is accurate and can boot touchbacks 70% of the time, but that’s not winning them enough games in Statesboro. Ultimately their season has come down to offense and defense. Midway through the season, something changed. In their first six games of the season, Southern threw the ball for 331.5 yards per game on roughly 48 attempts per game. During those games they also ran the ball about 27 times a game. In the last 5 games, those numbers have shifted substantially. The Eagles have dipped to 262 yards passing per contest on just 37.4 attempts, while their total rushes have increased by six to 33 per game. Sure, there are fewer conference games early on, but those are balanced out by non-conference games against game that include fewer peers. Roughly, these numbers represent a 20% shift in play selection, from passing to running. Passing yardage went down around 20% as well, but rushing yardage only increased by 11.4 yards a game or just over 10%. Georgia Southern was not tricking anyone. Opposing coaches noticed it, adjusted, and the Eagles have not been as explosive as they were in the first half of the season. A team that commenced an uptick in running plays, with their top running back Jalen White potentially missing the game, against a defense that went from allowing 206 rushing yards a game in their first eight games to just 103 yards a game in their last three seems like a bad mix. If the Mountaineer defense can continue limiting those opportunities, and tackle well in the open field, it could spell a long day for Southern. The Mountaineers must make sure they do not lose this game based on last week’s result. I think its behind them and they are ready for the next step.  

The First Pick

Stinkers 23

Mountaineers 35

App State Football @ #18 James Madison

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ James Madison (10-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 18th, 2023 2:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Bridgeforth Stadium

Capacity: 24,877

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.19

James Madison: 76.04

Home: 2.45

James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.3 points

VegasInsider Line: James Madison -8.5

Series: App State leads 12-5

Last Meeting: App State 28, James Madison 32, September 24, 2022, Boone, NC

We’ve all seen the made for television debate shows. The talking heads of daytime sports viewing remind us all what it’s like when the Mountaineers head to Atlanta for a football game. Same as it ever was, ten times over. And that leads into the fourth straight biggest game of the year for the Mountaineers. The season has been on the line since the second conference loss to Old Dominion. The first goal of securing bowl eligibility has been accomplished. Next up, facing a ten-win team with aspirations of sticking it to the NCAA. And oh yeah, that College Gameday program will be on site, as the Mountaineers will make their second appearance on the show in as many years, but this time as the road team. App State has found a groove and James Madison could be distracted with all the postseason waiver appeals and television cameras and personalities who likely want to talk about the same topic repeatedly.

It will be difficult to spend a lot of time on the James Madison schedule and try and dissect why they have won all their games. Many times, you’ll want to point out, “Hey, they have not played anyone!”, but for Madison, that not exactly the case. The Dukes scored 12 unanswered fourth quarter points to edge by Virginia back in Week 2. It was a P5 win on the road, even if the road trip was only about 60 miles away. Madison has shown they can win in a variety of ways which is typically what is bound to happen over the course of a season when you have ten wins. They have won ugly and pretty. Five of their games have been decided by one score. The Dukes defeated both Georgia Sun Belt schools by four touchdowns. They had some close wins over Troy and Old Dominion, and a win over Marshall that looked more lopsided than the final tally. The important thing to keep in mind is, that they won them all.

The success of the James Madison largely starts with Arizona transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud. Week in and out he has been a consistent force, rarely having a bad week in the stat column. Last Saturday was probably a situation where McCloud could have rested the second half, when you consider the lopsided 44-6 victory over one-win UConn. However, this game was close in the third quarter, with James Madison leading just 16-6. But the next three Madison drives were all touchdowns, most of those yards consumed by McCloud throwing the ball and ending each drive with a touchdown pass. On a day where James Madison had their worst outing of the season on the ground, McCloud shredded the Huskies for 457 yards and four touchdowns. The second half surge has been a common theme for Madison. They led Georgia State by a 14-7 margin at half before scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions in the third quarter. All those drives travelled at least 65 yards on at least seven plays.

There was cautious optimism last week. The Mountaineers had always handled the Georgia State Panthers by convincing scores anytime the two teams played in Atlanta. It was evident from the opening drive from Georgia State that the much-maligned App State defense was ready to take another step in getting things figured out. The Mountaineers forced an opening drive punt after three plays, and then bowed up in the red zone after the Panthers ran twenty plays before fumbling on the ensuing drive. The next nine Georgia State possessions covered all of 63 yards and included eight punts and one interception. The Panthers did eek out a couple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the damage had been done. The Mountaineers scored six touchdowns, three in each half, three on the ground and three by air. It was as balanced of an attack as we have seen all season from the offense despite some bobbled exchanges between the running backs and quarterbacks.

Last Saturday was a day to spread the ball around and six different Mountaineers scored. Makai Jackson had a breakout game, catching two long passes, one opening the scoring in the second quarter to give the Mountaineers a 14-0 lead. Jackson has now scored in back-to-back weeks and had a season high in catches and yards (3/98). Kaedin Robinson snuck behind the defense for a short receiving touchdown and Dalton Stroman turned on the jets for a 77-yard catch and run touchdown to open the scoring on the first play of the second half. The defense was stout all day, defending 87 plays, thanks to the Mountaineers getting up and down the field on offense with ease. They allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. The defense turned the Panthers over twice en route to allowing just 260 yards for the game. After surrendering 588 yards to Southern Miss, the Mountaineers have given up less than that figure in the last two games combined.

At this juncture of the season, most teams have put their best foot forward. Coaches know what they are about to face on the other side of the field. Rarely are there any surprises. From James Madison’s perspective, just about everything they have done has worked. Winning ten games does not happen by accident. Usually, along the way, teams will have a game or two where the margins are closer. As mentioned earlier, the Dukes have played in five one score games. Four of those games were consecutive and started with their Week 2 over Virginia. Three of those games were played on the road. Since that four-game run, James Madison has had it rather easy. Maybe too easy? The Mountaineers have played four nail-biting games on the road, but those games also occurred several weeks ago. An argument can be made that both teams last truly competitive game was against the same opponent in Old Dominion. I’m looking past Southern Miss for just a moment. Bear with me. Both games were one possession games that came down to the fourth quarter. Even with James Madison losing the turnover battle to Old Dominion, they had enough in the tank to slip by. Old Dominion converted nine of their eighteen third attempts, were perfect in the red zone and connected on both field goal attempts. Old Dominion really could not have played much better. But against this James Madison team, you almost must play perfect because they have been for most of the season. In all the “close” games that James Madison has played in, there has been a constant. The Dukes have given up 12 touchdown passes all season long, and every single one of them came in games that were decided by one score. Joey Aguilar has multiple touchdown tosses in every game this season outside of Wyoming, when the Mountaineers offense was also held out of the end zone. For the most part, Aguilar has improved weekly, cutting down on his early season interceptions and has made better decisions overall. James Madison’s defense was dominant against the run earlier in the season but has shown some vulnerability against the ground game of late. Seven of Madison’s opponents have had success throwing the ball against them, excluding teams with bad offensive lines and who have had offenses who have struggled late, such as Georgia State and Marshall. The Mountaineers are one of the hotter teams in the Sun Belt right now and confidence is building. How does it carry over into a huge game for the Mountaineers with the Dukes finally having nothing to play for except pride? This pick will have a little more heart in it than usual, but I believe in the Mountaineers will do what needs to be done to keep the division hopes alive.

The First Pick

Delegates 27

Mountaineers 34

App State Football @ Georgia State

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (6-3, 3-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 11th, 2023 2:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Center Parc Stadium

Capacity: 24,333

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.10

Georgia State: 63.93

Home: 2.38

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.79 points

VegasInsider Line: Georgia State -2

Series: App State leads 9-0

Last Meeting: App State 42, Georgia State 17, October 19, 2022, Boone, NC

There is some optimism in the App State camp this week. Fans tend to move on quicker when the wins come in multiples. Forget what it took to beat Southern Miss on Homecoming, and instead focus on dominating a reeling Marshall squad. But that is how growth works. It’s not all results driven. Sometimes you just need to believe. The Mountaineers did not play their best game last week, but it looked like they did not need to. Now they can take that confidence into a game that is another must win, versus an opponent who they have never lost to. The Panthers have found their own slide in recent weeks and are looking to stay on the track in the division race despite three conference losses. The Panthers and Shawn Elliott might have their best shot of taking down the Mountaineers they have ever had. However, the Mountaineers could be finding their stride at the right time while Georgia State is going in the opposite direction.

The Georgia State Panthers are next on the schedule, and the current “state of their season” is one that somewhat mimics what we saw in the last week with Marshall. The Panthers started 4-0 but have been middling in the meat of conference play. It’s not a full-on Marshall free fall, but starting 4-0, and then dropping to 6-3 seems a little unsatisfying. Although Georgia State has won a couple games in the past five weeks, those wins look less impressive today than they did when they happened. One of those wins was a three-score victory over Marshall, who has now lost five straight. The other was a three-point road win over Louisiana who is a hard team to figure out. Georgia State led Louisiana 20-0 before the Cajuns scored the last seventeen points of the game. Louisiana threw an interception in the end zone on their final drive and the Panthers kneeled the clock away. All in all, Georgia State was a end zone interception on the road away from dropping four of their last five games, with their lone win being Marshall.

The Mountaineers will have their hands full with a two-headed running game from Georgia State. Marcus Carroll and Darren Grainger have been a dominant and consistent force all season for the Panthers. Carroll has six games this season going over the 100-yard mark despite being limited to just 33 yards by James Madison. He has garnered nineteen or more carries every week except last week, when the game script worked against him. After scoring ten touchdowns in his first seven games, Carroll has been kept out of the end zone in two of his last three games. However, Carroll had a season high 208 yards against Georgia Southern just two games ago. Grainger is having his best season in Atlanta. He’s likely to eclipse his passing and rushing yardage totals from a year ago, which were also career bests. You will see him on design run plays to take advantage of his athletic ability which has probably helped his passing numbers. Although his touchdown passes are down from a year ago, and he already matched his interception total from two years ago, there is a good chance this will be his best season as a Panther.

Limiting Marshall to just a field goal in the first half was exactly what the App State offense needed. The first four possessions of the game provided a feeling out process for both teams until the Herd broke through with three points at the beginning of the second quarter. The Mountaineers responded with touchdowns on their next three drives, while taking advantage of a short field, thanks to a diving interception made by Donovan Spellman. The three Marshall drives directly after those App State touchdowns went for a total of three yards. The teams traded touchdowns on back-to-back drives in the third quarter, while the Mountaineers closed the scoring in the fourth quarter with a field goal that was sandwiched by two interceptions by Jordan Favors. This was the performance most have been seeking all year. Marshall has lost five games in a row for a reason despite their defense keeping them in some games. The Marshall offense is bad, and the Mountaineers took advantage early and put them away.  

So why all the sudden optimism? Reminder, Marshall’s offense is bad. For the most part, it was a mistake free game. That does not mean that mistakes were not made, but not the big ones. The Mountaineers did not turn the ball over, limited penalties and converted seven times on third or fourth down. Joey Aguilar did all he needed to do by completing passes to open receivers and even some that were not. A nice ho-hum 229 yards in the air while also leading the team with 44 yards on the ground. We might see such statistics from Georgia State, but having Aguilar lead the team in rushing yards is not in the long-term plans for App State. With Anderson Castle returning, App State will have the top five running backs from August on their depth chart ready and available for the first time all season. A committee approach could be forthwith in the final stretch run of the season as far as divvying up carries goes.

Something happened to Georgia State recently that was hard to identify at first. There are many ways to breakdown schedules and results. For whatever reason the Louisiana game continues to stick out. It is the best example of how Georgia State has played all season long. They run out to a quick lead, like they did, 20-7, and then get outplayed in the second half. The Panthers did not score in that second half and possessed the ball four times. Those drives went 55 yards. All resulted in punts. The Panthers even punted on a 4th and 11 play from the Louisiana 32-yard line. Georgia State survived that game but were outscored in the second half 10-0. The next week the Panthers were outscored in three of the four quarters by their in-state neighbors and best friends in Statesboro. Last week, James Madison outscored the Panthers in three of the four quarters as the teams were tied at 7-7 after the first quarter. In all, they have lost eight of the last ten quarters of football on the scoreboard. This is far different from how the season began, and really continued until this point. In the Panthers six wins, they scored at least 17 points in the first half, and in five of those games, scored 20 or more in their first half. In their three losses, they scored exactly seven points in the first half of each game. Seems simple right? Do not let them start fast. That is something the Mountaineers have struggled with during parts of the season. Now we all know that App State has lost four games, all by one score or less, and even when faced with a deficit have been able to hang around. Playing into that theme, Georgia State has given teams the ability to hang around. Seven of Georgia State’s opponents have thrown the ball for more yards than their current season average. Sure, some of that could be due to playing from behind, but this includes teams like James Madison and Georgia Southern who pretty much led the entire game. Madison and Southern both threw the ball for 334 yards on the Panthers. That figure represents 28 yards above Southern’s average and 71 yards above Madison’s. Rhode Island eclipsed their average by 115 yards. Charlotte by 90 yards, and Marshall by 68. For the season, opposing passing games have eclipsed 300 or more yards on four occasions, and 250+ yards eight times against the Panthers. This seems like a game that could unfold like last week. The Georgia State front seven is decent against the run, and App will give it a go early, before finding that green grass in the secondary. I like App State’s chances if they can force Grainger to throw the ball, where he has just four TD passes in the second half of games, and only four touchdown passes at home, and has thrown for only one-third of his season total yards in the second half of all games.  

The First Pick

Not Cobb County 30

Mountaineers 38

App State Football vs Marshall

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) vs Marshall (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 4th, 2023 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 66.21

Marshall: 64.44

Home: 2.19

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.96 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4

Series: App State leads 15-10

Last Meeting: App State 21, Marshall 28, November 12, 2022, Marshall, WV

The last third of the regular season is upon us and this is the time of the year when the championships are decided. Neither App State nor Marshall have looked like a division contending team. Yet the Sun Belt East remains wide open and could be for the taking. One would expect some teams to rise and separate themselves from the rest. This game will be a de facto elimination game for conference championship contention for whoever loses. It could be a fourth conference loss for Marshall or a third for App State, all to division foes. Like this series needed any more spice added to it. These historical juggernauts have routinely gotten into each other’s way since 1977. Marshall has won consecutive games in this series only one time when games were played in back-to-back years (1987-99). When Marshall won the Southern Conference in 1994, their only conference loss was to App State. Ten of the twenty-five games in this series have been decided by one score or less, and Saturday looks to be no different.

The Thundering Herd were having a great start to their season until they got to the month of October. They started the season with four wins but have not won a game since. Three of the first four games were played at home, with the one road game being played at East Carolina, who is now 1-7. Three of the four October games were played on the road, and the other was James Madison on a Thursday in Huntington. There were signs of this Marshall squad appearing to fall behind, but their schedule did them no favors. Looking back, FCS Albany and ECU should have been pushovers. However, the Herd played Albany to a four-point game, and the ECU game was played tighter until late in the fourth quarter, in a game that had a weather delay. Suddenly, the schedule got tougher, but defeating Virginia Tech by a touchdown seemed to set aside the woes of the previous games. After playing in one score games in four of the first five games, Marshall lost the last three games by multiple scores and have zero offensive touchdowns in the last two losses.

The true heartbeat of the Marshall team is junior running back Rasheen Ali. His season got off to fast start, thanks to 91 carries, 475 yards and nine rushing touchdowns in the month of September. However, just like the Herd, Ali has fizzled in October. Ali missed the game against James Madison and has just 218 yards in the last three contests and only two rushing touchdowns. Ali had a season low 12 carries for 52 yards last week against Coastal Carolina. Continuing the theme of the downward October trend, just look at the play of Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. His completion percentage has dropped nearly ten points from month to month, from 71% to 61.3%. In September, Fancher was sacked just twice. In October, he was sacked nineteen times!! So, when you wonder why Fancher did not finish the Coastal game, Marshall coach Charles Huff was quoted, “overall health and general lack of execution.” Huff also mentioned that he would have kept Fancher in had the game been close.

This is what this team will do. We are going to give you some anxious moments in the first half while the offense gets going, and then some tense moments in the second half as the team adjusts, and ultimately gives themselves a chance late. The Mountaineers scored five touchdowns in the second half, and four touchdowns on their final four possessions in the win over Southern Miss. The last three touchdown drives travelled 228 yards and took only 15 plays. Joey Aguilar threw for 391 yards. It might have been the quietist nearly 400-yard performance in recent memory. All that credit goes to the pass catchers who finished in the end zone. Dashaun Davis’ 57-yard touchdown reception was a highlight catch and run. Christian Horn had a superb game with eight receptions, 165 yards and two scores. Eli Wilson also scored on a 26-yard catch and frolic to the south end zone. Although the run game was slowed tremendously, Kanye Roberts turned a middling performance into a respectable one with a 61-yard go ahead score to help him finish with 109 yards for the second straight game.

The defense is still growing and figuring out how to put their best players on the field. Giving up a first drive touchdown has occurred in three of the four Mountaineers’ home games. Playing from behind is frustrating, but at this point, the players are accustomed to it. Understanding your deficiencies is as important as maximizing strengths, and in the short term, might be more important to this group’s success. The Mountaineer defense intercepted six passes in the first four games and allowed just one touchdown pass. Yet, the month of October has seen App State intercept just one pass while surrendering eight touchdown passes. The defense has also allowed over 400 yards in four straight games, and 560+ yards in two of the last three weeks. The 175+ rushing yards allowed in each of the last five games was punctuated by a 301-yard effort by Southern Miss last week. Marshall has the worst rushing offense in the league by a wide margin, even with Rasheen Ali averaging 99 yards a game.

There are a couple different ways to look at this game. Both teams have a unit that performs well above their conference opponents. When App State has the ball, they will have their hands full with a defense that has been mostly stingy, but a lot has been asked of them of late with the Marshall offense stumbling. Conversely, that Mountaineer defense has given up a lot of yards lately. Is it so simple as to which team has the worst unit? This Marshall offense is essentially all Fancher and Ali. They have been asked to do a lot, and at times they have, but there is only so much punishment they can take. A lot of Fancher’s game comes down to scrambling out of the pocket, which forces him to complete a lot of off-platform throws. That is shown by how many yards he has lost as a “runner”. It’s a little sickening to see that Fancher was credited with 45 carries in games against Old Dominion, NC State and Georgia State, in which he gained 136 yards. At three yards a rush, that does not seem too bad, but 102 of those 136 yards came against ODU. The next 30 carries went for 34 yards. This next twelve carries, against JMU went for -66 yards. Keep in mind, this includes yards lost being sacked. Against Coastal, he had seven carries for eight yards. Can you see the picture here? Fancher has been beaten up physically over the past five weeks and the only cure might be rest. The question becomes, how does Marshall maximize their best players, who are dealing with injuries, over the course of the next four weeks? Cole Pennington stepped in for Fancher for the final five drives of the Coastal game. The first went 60 yards over fourteen plays but resulted in a turnover on downs. The other four drives resulted in a fumble, another turnover on downs and two interceptions. Fancher and Pennington threw two interceptions each. Marshall will make a big play or two. Fancher is more likely to make those plays and Ali will not be far behind. The Mountaineers must limit those big plays and counteract them when Marshall gets in long yard to gain scenarios. I trust the App State offense to find the end zone enough times against this Marshall secondary, who is susceptible to balls over the top.

The First Pick

Turds: 24

Mountaineers 30

App State Football vs Southern Miss

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-6, 0-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 28th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.29

Southern Miss: 51.48

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.81 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -17

Series: Southern Miss leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 20, Southern Miss 21, November 20, 2014, Hattiesburg, MS

This sport can be harsh sometimes. The line between winning and losing is thin. Whether it’s one play, one call by the officials, or a collection of a couple plays and couple bad bounces. More often than not, these things even themselves out over time, it just seems most turns of events are bouncing away from the Mountaineers. It’s been a hard pill to swallow for several weeks. Being so close, yet so far. But the only way to change your fortunes is to keep working. And when the bounces start coming back, the wins will become sweeter because you earned it. Nobody wants it more than the players and if anyone does want it more, it’s the coaches, because they want to see it for their players. And most importantly, we all want to see them succeed. So as you normally would, pack your vehicles, head for the mountains, catch up with former classmates and enjoy what is left of the fall foliage. And when you head into Kidd Brewer, give your all, because those players are giving theirs for you.  

Last season, in its first year in Sun Belt play, Southern Miss managed a 4-4 conference record with wins over Arkansas State, Texas State, Louisiana and UL-Monroe. All four of those wins were within the division. They lost both East division games, to Georgia State and Coastal. This season, Arkansas State and Texas State avenged their losses. Most recently, Southern Miss was manhandled by South Alabama last Tuesday evening. The score was 55-3, and it looked worse than that. That game marked the fourth time this season that Southern Miss scored 13 points or fewer in a game. Outside of an opening week win over Alcorn State, and playing high scoring games against defensively bad Arkansas State and shootout prone Texas State, the Southern Miss offense has struggled. Backup quarterback Holman Edwards, previously of Houston, relieved regular starter Billy Wiles, previously of Clemson, in the loss to South Alabama. Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall was noncommittal of who might start this weekend.

The Eagle offense managed 149 yards against South Alabama. Sixty-five yards came on their final drive of the game, in which ended in a fumble. The previous week, Southern Miss lost to Old Dominion, and their lone touchdown was a punt return. Southern Miss has not scored an offensive touchdown since September 30th. They are not as bad as they have played in recent weeks, but their margin of error is quite small. Quarterback play has been a major issue. Wiles has played well against bad teams, and against good teams, he has struggled. All seven of his touchdown passes came against those subpar defenses in Alcorn, Ark. State and Texas State. Those three games were also the only ones in which he threw for 215 or more passing yards. In the other four games, his passing yards never surpassed 180 yards. Those numbers do not seem too far off, but the run game numbers likewise reflect poor output. The Golden Eagles averaged 204 yards rushing in the “poor defense’ games, compared to just 86 yards rushing against Florida State, Tulane, Old Dominion and South Alabama.  

Last Saturday night created a low point for the Mountaineers, who are now on the wrong side of the win-loss column. The Mountaineers scored three times, each time occurring on fourth down. It’s honestly a wonder that the result of this game was not worse. Failing to convert on any of those fourth downs could have the changed the final tally dramatically. Only the Wyoming game created a lower point total for the Mountaineers, with 22. App State scored five times in that game. Plenty of folks have been looking for consistency for the Mountaineers. One of the main gripes was starting games quicker. Turns out, App has played better from behind all season than they have while out front. The Mountaineers scored first against Old Dominion and Wyoming, and held leads in the third quarter, but ultimately lost. Truth is, in the last four games, a game defining odd play has taken place in each fourth quarter that dramatically shifted the result. The blocked field goal at Wyoming. The goal line stop in Monroe. The fumble against Coastal. The botched mesh play in Norfolk.

In his first career start, Kanye Roberts performed about as good anyone could have expected. Still just a redshirt freshman, who had logged only thirty carries this season, Roberts took on 26 carries against Old Dominion. Roberts touched the ball on eight of the Mountaineers ten drives. The majority of Roberts’ yards came in the first half, aided by a 24-yard and 12-yard carry on the second series for the Mountaineer offense. Although his paced slowed in the second half, it was Roberts who carried the ball eight times for twenty-eight yards on the drive that put the Mountaineers up 21-20 in the third quarter. Those carries were not scattered either. All eight carries were in a matter of ten plays, that moved the offense to the edge of the red zone. After twenty carries through the Mountaineers first six drives, Roberts carried the ball just six times on the last four drives.

It’s quite crazy to think we come this far and not mentioned any Southern Miss playmakers. Franke Gore Jr is easily the most recognizable player, being the son of longtime NFL running back Frank Gore. His season has resembled the Golden Eagles season almost to a tee. Gore carried the ball six times in the win over Alcorn State, figuring there was not much need for him to carry the load in an FCS game. Gore eclipsed 100 yards twice this season, in those Arkansas State and Texas State games. All four of his rushing touchdowns came in those games. Since those outings, Gore has been stuck. He carried the ball 29 times for 66 yards against Old Dominion and 12 times for 37 yards against South Alabama. With 434 yards on the season, Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards a carry. Gore is really close to his pace of having a third straight 800-yard season, which is still very consistent, but behind some expectations considering he was a Sun Belt first team pick in the preseason. Backup running back Rodrigues Clark was spotted with a cast on his hand on Tuesday at practice. Assuming Clark does not play Saturday, that leaves the Golden Eagles thin at the position. Next in line for carries would be Kenyon Clark, who has only thirteen rushes on the year, but ten came in their last game. Tiaquelin Mims has a punt return touchdown to his credit and is also Southern Miss’ third leading receiver. Overall, the Mountaineers will be facing another team facing quarterback uncertainties. That makes the fifth game this season they have had to think about more than one quarterback on the opposing team. As a result, the Mountaineers will be preparing for another bottom-quartile team in terms of offensive yards, first downs generated and third down conversions. Oddly enough, Southern Miss is one of better red zone teams in the country, but that is mainly due to being 2nd in the country in red zone field goals. Of their red zone scores, over half of them are field goals. I’d love to sit back here and say something simple, like field goals won’t be enough to beat the Mountaineers at home. Then again, the last four games have been nothing like a Saturday afternoon home game in Boone. It will have been six weeks between Saturday home games for the Mountaineers this week. That’s not an easy schedule to deal with for anyone. App State needs a rebound game in the worst way, and hopefully they can break the trend of one score games.  

The First Pick

Royals: 19

Mountaineers 42

App State Football @ Old Dominion

Posted on by
Reply

Appalachian State (3-3, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ Old Dominion (3-3, 2-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 21st, 2023 7:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium

Capacity: 21,944

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.27

Coastal Carolina: 59.13

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.71 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -6.5

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last Meeting: App State 27, Old Dominion 14, November 19, 2022, Boone, NC

The field goal giveth, and the field goal taketh away. In the third straight game, the kicking game became the difference in a football game. It’s been an up and down journey. The insanity of September 2022 decided make a make a curtain call in 2023, and is stretching the applause clear into October. No mistaking, its been a wild time to be a fan. With each passing week of close games, decided by a play or two, some doubt starts to creep into everyone’s thoughts. It’s impossible to block it all out. It might be one of the most difficult parts of anyone’s job, questioning if they can make it work like they had hoped. Tough times never last. Eventually it end’s one direction or another. Many conference champions have been decided with a conference loss on their resume. Sometimes even with multiple losses. The leaves are turning in the High Country, but they have not fallen yet. There is a lot of football season left, and everyone in the Sun Belt East has a chance.

Where does one start with the Monarchs? This group might be the most confusing team to figure out in the Sun Belt. Old Dominion has played a schedule that one can categorize as semi-difficult. They have played two ACC teams in Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. They trailed the Hokies at half by six points on opening weekend, but could not find any offense in the second half, before falling 36-17. Two weeks later, they led Wake Forest 17-0 at half, and 24-7 deep into the third quarter before allowing the Deacons to score the final 20 points of the game, losing 27-24. In two games against Sun Belt opponents, both were high scoring affairs, with the Monarchs throwing the ball all over Louisiana, and running it all over Marshall. And the final two games, against Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce, were low scoring matchups, and were decided in the fourth quarter. All of this to describe a team that can play with P5’s, can play against above average conference opponents, but can also struggle with some very bad teams.

Grant Wilson and Jack Shields have both played five games for Monarchs at quarterback. The problem is the Monarchs have played six games. It was Wilson who went 13/19 for a season high 247 yards with 4 touchdown passes in the win over Louisiana. Wilson did not play against Marshall, which left Shields to open the scoring on a 66 yard touchdown run in the opening minute. Shields also threw three interceptions against the Herd in a game where the Monarchs ran for 356 yards and somehow still lost. Both quarterbacks complete just a hair over 50% of their passes and have combined for 9 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Excluding one game here and there makes those numbers look increasingly different. Take away those 4 TD passes against Louisiana, and that TD/INT ratio looks downright ugly. The same can be said about the three interception game against Marshall. That ratio becomes tolerable. So which quarterback shows on up on Saturday?

It’s been so long since last Tuesday night, and quite honestly, revisiting any of still seems too fresh on the mind. The major concern is obvious. Nate Noel carried the ball one time, gained a yard, and left the game. The most recent update to his ankle is that he is still under evaluation. Coach speak this all you want, but based on the current information, he’s likely a game time decision. That leaves the running game in the hands of several backs who could see an increased role. Kanye Roberts was the only Mountaineer running back to break ten carries after Noel’s departure, and could see an increased role. It’s also possible that Roberts does not see Noel-like distribution and this backfield becomes a true committee. Roberts has been the most effective, with 5.5 yards per carry, with just thirty carries on the year.

The Mountaineer defense has now gone three straight weeks giving up a big play or multiple plays. You could even sprinkle in a play or two from ECU and UNC, but those did not hurt the Apps like they last three weeks felt. Wyoming’s big run negated the Mountaineers pick six. Monroe, out of literally nowhere, completed big pass play after big pass play, and Coastal followed suit. At first these plays trickled in, and then last week, it felt like an avalanche. Enter Old Dominion, whose offense cannot move the chains, hold the ball or convert third downs, but you know what they can do? They can hit the big play. Ten of their sixteen offensive touchdown plays have travelled 30 yards or more. There is no greater lesson about keeping your gaps minded and staying on top of the ball than what the Mountaineers will see this weekend.

After several weeks of dealing with similar issues on the defensive side of the ball, App State will have to gear up for a team that sticks to their plan of finding weaknesses to exploit when they are on offense. Despite this trend becoming the norm of late, it’s a topic that coaches bring up weekly to their players. In some cases, you may not have the horses to stop it, and in other scenarios, it’s all about positioning, which can always be corrected. We’ve mentioned these explosive plays as the way that Old Dominion has scored more than half of their offensive touchdowns. Keep in mind those sixteen scores have come in six games, which means they are scoring less than three touchdowns per game. The Monarchs have only had six other scoring “drives” this season. Putting this all together, Old Dominion is incredibly inefficient on offense. They average close to six yards a play, outgaining their opponents by nearly a full yard per play, yet are outgained by about twenty yards a game in total offense, while also being dominated in time of possession by close to 13 minutes a game. Still, they have played in five straight one score games. This matchup is a reminder that what you see in box scores and stat sheets can lead you astray from the actual product on the field. The way the Mountaineers have also played in four games decided by one possession might lead one to believe that we could be heading down the same road again. If you are rooting for App State, how must they avoid a repeat of past performances? I believe this all comes down to covering your assignments. As much as we have discussed how Old Dominion thrives on the big play, over the course of a game, they are still very inconsistent. The focus of the App State defense should be on winning each series. On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers must find a way to consistently run the football. The Monarchs have yet to surrender a 100-yard rusher on defense to a running back. The only player to do so, was Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. The defensive alignment tricks offensive coordinators into running, but the Monarchs remain in pursuit. The best way to get safeties away from the line of scrimmage is to open the passing game up. Old Dominion has been burned repeatedly by competent passing offenses, which excludes Southern Miss and Texas A&M-Commerce. A steady dose and Aguilar and company should put the Monarchs on their heels enough for a close win for the Mountaineers.

The First Pick:

Royals 23

Mountaineers 31