Monthly Archives: October 2014

Georgia State @ Appalachian Football

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 8

Georgia State (1-7, 0-5, Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (2-5, 1-2 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 1st, 3:30pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 54.20

Ga State: 45.37

Home: 3.28

AppState is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 12 points

Sportsbook: AppState 10.5, O/U 70.5

Series: first meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

After another extremely long second bye week, Appalachian Football will start its season for the third time this Saturday. In all seriousness, the double bye is odd. Had this bye come after a loss we would likely have all wished the season be over. But this bye came after Appalachian’s first FBS win as an FBS program. Finally, we have most of the “firsts” out of the way. The only one left to accomplish is the first home win over an FBS program. Enter Georgia State, the startup program who might still be searching for their first quality win in program history. An overtime win over South Alabama in 2011 might be their crowning achievement, when they were still considered an FCS program. The Panthers are still a win short of dozen in their programs history, in which over half of those wins came in their inaugural season in 2010 with a schedule that featured only a handful of Division I games. However, Georgia State is one year ahead of Appalachian in their FBS infancy. Georgia State would be bowl eligible this season in only their second year in the Sun Belt if they would have qualified, but that ship sailed past them last weekend with their in state rivals Georgia Southern captaining the vessel. It has not been an easy time for Georgia State on or off the field. It takes time to build a program from scratch. Eleven wins in four and half seasons is part of it. The other part is the lack of fan support and facilities to call their own. And that is why they decided to hire Appalachian’s former athletic director, with his “experience” in building an FBS program. Appalachian’s pieces to the FBS puzzle were there, just needing to be placed accordingly, while Georgia State is still looking for all the pieces.

It would be entirely too easy to poke fun at Georgia State for an entire article, so we’ll stop shortly. Is it getting old? Of course. But there is one story you might not have heard about it. Living in the world of twitter, you would have discovered that a large group of Ga. State and Ga. Southern students never made it out of the parking lot last weekend to make it inside the Georgia Dome to watch their rivalry football game. Playing football indoors probably is big reason. Last weekend, the weather was perfect for football, but not indoor football. Getting an outdoor stadium will go a long way to building a gameday atmosphere for Ga. State.

Besides being a startup program that continues to build in many ways, Georgia State has been able to assemble a decent offense down in Atlanta. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle is All-Sun Belt caliber player. His 309 passing yards per game leads the conference by 40 yards per game and his sixteen touchdown passes are also tops in the conference. He is the leader of the Panther offense that can easily light up the scoreboard, but the issue with Ga. State this year and every year has been their defense.

Many of you may have watched the State/Southern game last weekend. It was a perfect chance to gauge the Panthers and Eagles to compare where Appalachian stands. It was evident from the start, that the Panthers had no answer to the option attack from the Eagles. Southern ran all over the Panthers to the tune of 613 yards. It was a complete team effort by Southern, not just a dominating performance by one player. The State defense is undersized and probably too young to truly defend an option offense. In their 3-4 formation, all of the Panther starting lineman are sophomores and their nose guard comes in at 285 pounds. Even one of the Panthers’ safeties was mentioned as being benched this weekend after his poor play against Southern.

Nearly a couple weeks ago, Appalachian ran for 441 yards against Troy, technically a better run defense than Ga. State from a pure numbers standpoint. But, both defenses have been run on fairly easily, both giving up close to six yards per carry and both over 240 yards allowed rushing yards on the season. The Panthers also have allowed 24 rushing touchdowns on the season, which is second worst in the league. Their red zone defense is second worst, only to Troy and the Panthers have also given up the most red zone touchdowns in the Sun Belt. On top of the worst turnover margin in the league, the Panthers also give up more first downs, third down conversions and points than any team in the conference. Its bad football at its absolute best.

Generally, getting a bye after a get-the-monkey-off-your-back win would seem to be poor timing. With Appalachian scoring 101 combined points in the prior two games, the preference would be to continue playing rather than sit for a week. However, in this case, I believe the timing worked out for the Mountaineers. Instead of getting to high, the Apps have had some time to reflect and focus on the next task at hand.

Appalachian’s win over Troy came in a truly dominating performance. Four players rushed for over 80 yards, led by Marcus Cox who had 123 yards and three touchdowns. Ricky Fergerson had a 68-yard run that catapulted him to his first career 100-yard performance. Taylor Lamb scampered for ninety-eight yards and Terrance Upshaw added eighty-two yards. All four averaged 7.5 yards per carry or more. For the season Cox now has 569 yards rushing and is just a few yards off pace for another 1,000 yard season. If Cox were to eclipse that mark, it would more impressive than last year, when he had the majority of the carries, compared to this season where he has rushed on just 37% of the Mountaineers running plays.

Without question, Georgia State is going to put up some points. Their offense is relentless. Nick Arbuckle attempts 37.5 passes per game at a 61% completion rate. He spreads the ball pretty evenly to his top four receivers, who have caught 137 passes on the season combined. Donavan Harden is leader of the bunch, with 45 catches for 707 yards and seven touchdowns, which are all team highs. The Panthers do not have much success on the ground, and that is putting it nicely. As a team, they have only managed 3.1 yards per carry, which is abysmal at the collegiate level. Appalachian was able to shut down the Troy rushing attack and limit the Trojans to only 79 yards on the ground after Troy had a season high on the ground against New Mexico State the previous week. The Appalachian defense attacked the ball against Troy as well, coming up with two aggressive interceptions from Latrell Gibbs and returning one fumble for a touchdown. The Mountaineers have been very successful this season turning opponents turnovers into 104 points. Of the 53 points scored against Troy, twenty-eight came off the Trojans miscues. Georgia State has committed 18 turnovers of their own this season and have allowed 105 points off of those turnovers. If that trend continues, the Mountaineers may very well be on their way to their third victory of the season as long as they can avoid their own mistakes.

The First Pick:

UNCC-Atlanta 31

Mountaineers 42

Appalachian State @ Troy

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 7

Appalachian State (1-5, 0-2 Sun Belt) @ Troy (1-5, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 18th, 3:00pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Veterans Memorial Stadium

Surface: ProGrass

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 49.78

Troy: 49.91

Home: 3.29

Troy is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 3.5 points

Sportsbook: Troy -7, O/U 63.5

Series: Troy leads 2-1

Last Meeting: App State 33, Troy 30, November 25, 2000

That feeling probably has yet to wear off from the last time. The feeling of another game ending on the game’s final play. Luckily this time it was not a kick that was the final play, but that could have been. Bentlee Critcher’s field goal attempt was just wide enough to cause speculation and an instant replay booth review. Overtime was not friendly for the Mountaineers. Liberty scored easily like they had all afternoon long. The Mountaineers ran for a big gain on their first play and then decided the test the middle of the field at an intermediate distance for the first time all game. Finally, the game did end on the last play, and those who were remaining in the stands, once again left wondering what had happened. Used to be that many Appalachian football games were over at halftime. Fans were leaving Kidd Brewer Stadium because it was the Mountaineers who were rolling. Now fans leave when the Mountaineers are getting pummeled or because a little bit of drizzle is just enough of an excuse. Now its just the diehards who stick it out. The ones who are so anxious to see the next victory, whenever it may come. A very young offense is now turning the ball over at bad times which does not mix well with a defense that barely gets in the way of opposing offenses. The Mountaineer offense will either get left behind or keep up with opposing teams. Unfortunately, there has not been much “keeping up” this season. At the midpoint of the season, the Mountaineers have regressed from their 1-2 mark at the quarter pole. Without a win this weekend, the Mountaineers will match a losing streak not seen since 1977, which is older than then the average age of an Appalachian alum. A win is desperately needed before things really get ugly on the mountain.

Troy is not going to feel bad for Appalachian. They were also recently dumbfounded by a loss to Abilene Christian nearly a month ago. It was not until last weekend that Troy broke through on their Homecoming game to defeat New Mexico State 41-27, by rushing for a season high 360 yards rushing. This number is especially troubling to Appalachian, a team that has given up enormous rushing totals to Michigan (350), Georgia Southern (408) and South Alabama (243). Troy also forced four turnovers, the same number that the Mountaineers gave away last weekend.

The rushing statistic posted by Troy was even more surprising as the Trojans had only rushed for 488 yards on 168 attempts in the previous five games this season, which was good for 2.9 yards per carry on the season, which is absolutely pitiful. Add Saturdays statistics, and the Troy increased their yards per carry for the season by almost an entire yard to 3.8 ypc. A lot of those yards had to do with New Mexico State, which is being torched on the ground even worse than Appalachian has this year. The win last weekend, regardless of how it happened, may have given Troy all the confidence they needed to turn their season around.

Brandon Burks was the man who had the most rushing yards in the last weeks win. On only ten carries, Burks hauled the mail for 176 yards without a touchdown. Burks only had 114 yards on the season going into New Mexico State. Burks is not a guy who carries the ball a lot, now with only 48 carries in six games. His season high for carries was eleven against Duke and his low was three carries against Georgia. Burks only had nineteen carries for 20 yards combined in the prior three games, so his breakout against the Aggies was surprising.

Quarterback Brandon Silvers has started five games this season for the Trojans. Silvers suffered a concussion in the loss to Abilene Christian which forced him to miss the Georgia game. Since returning, Silvers has oddly played better since returning to the lineup. His rushing and passing numbers have improved in each game. He has run 34 times in the past two games compared to the 24 times in the seasons first three games. He has also posted nearly half of his passing yards for the season in the last two games compared to the first three. He has thrown 4 TD passes in the last two games compared to just one in the first three games. Silvers is a high percentage passer at close to a 70% completion rate and has only thrown one interception on the season. Silvers four rushing touchdowns tie for the team lead and his 131 rushing yards are good enough for third on the team.

Forgotten in the gloominess of last week’s loss was excellent statistical performances by the Appalachian offense. Liberty’s best defense was the Mountaineers committing turnovers. The Mountaineers rolled up 637 yards and gained 9.2 yards per snap but the red zone problems continued to plague the offense. The Mountaineers converted one possession into points on four attempts. That possession yielded one field goal. The Mountaineers scored all five offensive touchdowns from distance. It’s great to have the big play become a part of the offense, but the long strikes led to the Mountaineer defense getting left on the field for over 35 minutes. That is the exact definition of a double edge sword. A coach is going to take those big plays all day if they are available. It’s just sad that they basically went to waste.

In my opinion, the red zone is an overrated term used to describe what is basically a scoring chance. The ball being in the red zone certainly means that scoring is more likely, but as Appalachian has shown this year, it is not a guarantee. More importantly, being in position to score points is completely underrated. In the second quarter, Appalachian had a fourth down and five yards to go at the twenty-three yard line. A field goal attempt would have been forty yards with the Mountaineers down a touchdown. Appalachian elected to run an offensive play instead of the field goal attempt with a backup kicker and holder. Taylor Lamb threw an interception on the play but the Mountaineer defense was able to hold, which eventually led the Mountaineers to actually attempt and make a field goal with under ten seconds left in the half. Now imagine, the original field goal being attempted on fourth and five from the twenty-three yard line. Then, after kicking off to Liberty, the Mountaineers held the Flames to three and out and got the ball back in decent field position, and had another opportunity to add a score before the half. That sequence could have changed the game. That is one many examples of the number of segments of the game that could have changed the result. It was at minimum, a lost opportunity to score points. I believe it caused an overcorrection by the coaching staff to play conservative at the end of regulation and attempt a field goal instead of pushing forward for a potential go ahead score. What it essentially comes down to is passing up a scoring chance, and at this point in the season, this team needs as many points on the board in the first half as it can possibly get.

Last week we talked about getting Marcus Cox and Terrance Upshaw going in the running game. Their numbers were called and they responded. The duo combined for 32 carries and 222 yards and two touchdowns. Both are now over five yards per carry on the season. It was third time season Cox has eclipsed the 100 yard mark on the season and the second such outing for Upshaw.

The Mountaineer receivers posted good nights as well. Four Mountaineers averaged over 20 yards per catch with Malachi Jones leading the group. Jones caught five balls for 105 yards. Simms McElfresh and Bobo Beathard both posted touchdowns catches from sixty yards or more. True freshman Shaedon Meadors made collegiate debut with a dazzling four catches for 90 yards, which included a 48-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter.

This is the time where I tell you what Appalachian needs to do to win. The Mountaineers are averaging 30.5 points per game, but most of that has come in two big games, in which they scored 114 points. The real statistic is that the Mountaineers have scored just a shade over 17 points per game against FBS programs. Troy has averaged about 20.5 points per game with one less fluff game than the Mountaineers. Vegas thinks this game will be high scoring, but I do not agree. These teams have combined for fourteen interceptions on the year defensively. I also feel that both teams will try to establish the running game as they were both successful last weekend. More running leads to the clock running more often, which will eventually to a lower scoring game. Mistakes are obviously a huge deal in any football game. The mistakes I am talking about are not turnovers, but missed opportunities. Both teams will need to score when they have a chance, not just in the red zone. The Appalachian kicking game is well documented. Troy, on the other hand has only attempted six field goals on the season, making four. Troy has been perfect on defense when the opponent has been in the red zone, as in they have allowed every red zone possession by the opponent to score. I’ll bet good money that Appalachian will break that streak for them. The Mountaineers may have more yards on offense and look like winners during the game, but until we can see proof that the small things can be corrected, I cannot feel comfortable that the Mountaineers can get out of their own way.

The First Pick

Mountaineers 23

Troy State 28

Liberty @ Appalachian State

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 6

Liberty (3-3, 0-0 Big South) @ Appalachian State (1-4, 0-2 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 11th, 3:30pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 51.27

Liberty: 53.69

Home: 3.44

App State is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 1 point

Sportsbook: n/a

Series: Appalachian leads 7-2

Last Meeting: App State 29, Liberty 22, September 21, 2002

The Mountaineers got their Sun Belt reality check on Saturday. The Apps did not have to wait for the traditional heavyweights like Arkansas State, Lafayette or Monroe. The Mountaineers were pounded by a well aged program in only their sixth year of football in South Alabama. Forget the tradition and the atmosphere and weather. South Alabama is perhaps the best team to ever visit Boone. There are plenty of teams that have played at Kidd Brewer that have been fabulous FCS or Division 1-AA programs. Marshall, Georgia Southern and Furman come to mind as programs over the last few decades that been most consistent. Some FCS playoff opponents also come to mind, but none hold a candle to what South Alabama came to Boone with last weekend. The Jaguars opened each half with twenty unanswered points. They posted 582 yards of offense despite ten penalty flags for 124 yards. The Jaguars ran for 5.3 yards per carry on forty-seven rushing attempts, but it was quarterback Brandon Bridge who had a career passing day with 339 yards on only nineteen completions. Bridge averaged close to 18 yards per completion and accounted for four total touchdowns. Two of his touchdown passes were big plays, one from 43 yards out and another from 67 yards. The Mountaineers could not sustain any offense to counter. Multiple times, Taylor Lamb overthrew his receivers, a trend that continued from nine days earlier at Georgia Southern. The running game consisted of Lamb scrambling from the pocket as the bellcows of Marcus Cox and Terrance Upshaw were mostly held in check. Offense is where this season has started and ended. The Mountaineers have scored exactly two meaningful fourth quarter touchdown this season, both against Southern Miss in Lamb’s first start, which seems like ages ago. The offense might wake up momentarily this weekend and give the fans some hope, but gloomy days are ahead until this team learns that games start in the first quarter.

Liberty is not your average Big South team. They have dreams for FBS football just like many FCS teams across the country who want a piece of the television pie. But for Liberty, FBS football isn’t a dream, it is a vision. They have courted the Sun Belt on several occasions as a possible travel partner for Appalachian. From that perspective, they are somewhat appealing, but the rest of the Sun Belt is not buying it. In the meantime, on the football field, Liberty has had an up and down season, but one that is not exactly surprising. They have held serve against the schools they should have beaten and have fallen short to the FBS and upper FCS programs. North Carolina pulled away late in the fourth quarter in their season opener before Liberty captured three straight wins. Indiana State and Richmond have defeated the Flames in the last two weekends. Richmond held on last week to spoil the Liberty homecoming in double overtime.

The Liberty offense is a true three-headed machine. The Flames may have shown their hand last week unleashing quarterback Josh Woodrum in a pistol running attack that was very effective against Richmond. Woodrum ran eighteen times for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Prior to last week, Woodrum had not run for more than 36 yards in a game this season. Woodrum has the look off a pocket passer at 6’3 and 225 pounds. He has averaged a solid 257 yards per game while throwing eleven touchdowns to five interceptions.

Darrin Peterson is more than just Woodrum’s go-to receiver; he is just about the only guy he looks for. Evidence to that is the 11 catches that Peterson hauled in against Richmond of the fifteen completed passes that Woodrum completed. Peterson was an all Big South performer last year as a sophomore and has four straight games with over 100 receiving yards this season. Peterson has already hauled in 45 receptions for 709 yards and five touchdowns. If that pace continues, he’ll surely contend for the Big South player of the year award, and might also be named to the midseason Walter Payton Watch list.

DJ Abner is leading rusher for the Flames with 493 yards and five touchdowns. He is almost a guarantee to get about fifteen carries a game. Abner has two games this season with over 100 yards this season against Bryant and Richmond. Abner has caught exactly one pass out of the backfield in the each games this year with mixed results. Three catches went for a total of five yards, while the other three covered 64 yards and a touchdown.

Eventually, Appalachian is going to have to wake up and understand that scoring in the first quarter is paramount to success. The Mountaineers have been outscored 41-10 in the opening frame this season. That has led to Appalachian trailing at the half in all four of their losses. In the last three losses, the games were not out of reach at halftime. Unfortunately, the Mountaineers have also been outscored in the third quarter this season 34-21. As the time goes on in a game, the defense wears thin and their breaks become shorter and shorter due to offensive inefficiency. Nate Woody’s defensive scheme was accustomed to Wofford teams controlling the clock and usually maintaining a lead. Without that luxury, Woody’s scheme is getting exposed.

Obviously talent is there on offense , but Taylor Lamb and many of his weapons are still very young. It makes one wonder if Lamb would not be better suited to sit back and watch more than he did last weekend. It was evident that Lamb was not on his game early on, yet it was well into the fourth quarter before Kam Bryant saw the field. Finding a balance between good experience and bad experience for a freshman quarterback is difficult for a coaching staff. Finding a balance between believing in a process and making every effort to win a game is difficult for fans. For the good of team, coaches and fans, all the hard work is going to have to start showing some results. Hopefully, a return to a more familiar and conventional kickoff time for a game will help with that process.

As far as how the running game looks for Appalachian, it has been somewhat of a mixed bag. I believe most fans would have imagined the numbers to be slightly higher for Marcus Cox (71/344/5) and Terrance Upshaw (51/244/1). Both are averaging over 4.5 yards a carry, but it has been the running of Lamb that might be the most surprising. Lamb’s carries have gone up in every game, but that is not great formula when Cox and Upshaw and more than willing to carry the load. The last two games, Appalachian did not record a 100 yard rusher like it had in the first three games. Part of that is Cox/Upshaw getting only thirty carries in the last two games, compared to over thirty carries per game in the previous three.

It all comes down to an incredibly slow three hour domino effect. The lack of early scoring leads to the defense getting worn out and falling behind. When the team is behind, they are forced to abandon their running game and play away from their strengths. It is basically that simple. Last weekend Liberty played one of their bigger games of the season, despite it being an out of conference game. The Flames had another record setting crowd and their fans are becoming infected with Liberty football. Reports are that Liberty fans are coming in droves to the High Country this weekend, and add that on top of normal High Country tourists and Appalachian’s Homecoming and it should be a busy weekend. Hopefully the Mountaineer offense will get back to basics this weekend with a steady diet of Cox and Upshaw. Liberty has given up over 200 yards rushing a game defensively and has also allowed fifteen rushing touchdowns in six games. In the last two games, Liberty has allowed 300 yard passers in each game. I don’t want Taylor Lamb anywhere near 300 passing yards. I want him down near 225 and maybe throw in another 40 yards rushing. Can Cox and Upshaw go over 100 yards each? I’d love to see it but I don’t think it will happen. One of them will have the hot hand and will put up a big number as the Mountaineers pull away in the second half.

The First Pick

Mountaineers 34

Sparks 20

South Alabama @ Appalachian State

Posted on by
Reply

Here we go with Week 5

South Alabama (2-2, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (1-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 4th, 6:00pm EST

TV/LIve Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490 Fayetteville

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 54.36

So Ala: 58.95

Home: 3.47

So Ala is favored by the Sagarin Rating by 8 points

Sportsbook: So Ala 4, O/U 48

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

After being left hung to dry by Sun Belt scheduling and the Georgia Southern option attack, Appalachian State will be well rested for South Alabama in its FBS home opener this weekend. If you recall, Appalachian had short rest to deal with last weekend with consecutive road tilts, playing two games in six days. This weekend, the Mountaineers have eight days of rest and will face a team that is playing its second road game in as many weekends. Last weekend, the Jaguars dominated Idaho in a 34-10 romp, all while traveling close to 5,000 miles round trip. They will log another 600 miles before making it to Boone on Saturday, and let me tell you, the seasons are changing quick in the North Carolina Mountains. The Jaguars will be experiencing close to 25-30 degree difference in high and low temperatures from when they depart the Gulf Shore to arrival in the High Country. Selfishly, I have been looking forward to those November afternoons when the Cajun schools came to Boone, awaiting to see them crumble like a dehydrated fallen maple leaf. We won’t have to wait. Mother Nature will greet our deep south colleagues with a frosty hello on Saturday morning.

South Alabama picked up their first conference win of the season last week in Idaho, posting their highest offensive marks of the season with a 426 yard effort. That number represents 30% of the Jags total offensive yardage on the season. South Alabama is not extremely explosive on offense, which will be a big difference for Appalachian compared to last week. The Jaguars are averaging 4 yards per rush and only 5.7 yards per passing attempt. Starting quarterback Brandon Bridge is passing for just under 178 yards per game, but has also ran for 134 yards this season. Bridge is a big quarterback at 6’5″ and 235 pounds, but does not appear physically imposing. Think about a taller, fatter Jamal Jackson from 2012. Bridge is completing just 52% of his passes, and has four interceptions compared to just three touchdown tosses on the season.

There are several offensive numbers that pop off the stat page for South Alabama. Most Mountaineer fans are pretty aware of the red zone inefficiencies. Several occasions in the last two games have most likely kept the Apps from contending in each games. Somehow, South Alabama is struggling more than the Mountaineers are. The Jaguars red zone scoring rate is acceptable, but not outstanding at 62.5%. Basically, thats five out of eight times, that the Jaguars score when in the red zone. However, the touchdown rate is abysmal. There is no other way to put it. The Jaguars are scoring touchdowns on only three of every eight chances they drive deep into their opponents territory. Thats 37.5% on the season, compared to the Mountaineers at 62%. So if you feel bad about how Appalachian has not scored when they were close, imagine being a South Alabama fan right now.

What this matchup seems to really boil down to is the defenses. Appalachian got gashed last week by the shifty backs from Georgia Southern, but had been fairly stout on the ground prior to last Thursday. The Eagles were able to run on the Jaguars as well, but did not control the ball like they did against the Mountaineers. South Alabama does not give up a lot on defense, if anything they are as equally as balanced as their offense. They don’t give up anything too flashy, and they keep the offense in front of them. Several times, Georgia Southern was able to run down the field for several yards without getting touched, but the Jaguars eventually swarmed. Appalachian’s defense was there against Georgia Southern, but missed a ton of tackles and could not hold on.

It is pretty painful to reminisce about a second straight performance by the Mountaineer offense that fell below expectations. The toughest thing to do is remind ourselves that Taylor Lamb is still just a freshman. A sputtering offense is to be expected with young leadership, but the opportunities have been there. This offense can move the ball until they get close and the field gets smaller. Appalachian fell into somewhat of a hole on Thursday, but it was not unmanageable. But, as a direct result, the Mountaineers abandoned the running game to an extent and left the burden on the arm of Taylor Lamb, who threw two interceptions for the second straight game. Lamb has attempted 82 passes in the last two games, and that is not a winning formula for a freshman quarterback, especially not on the road. The Mountaineers are going to need to mix in the run more often.

Marcus Cox and Terrance Upshaw need to start the game with an explosive attitude. I say that not knowing who will get the bulk of the carries. Cox, has had a pretty even distribution in the first four games, but Upshaw’s carries have been unpredictable. Upshaw was a bright spot at Michigan, but has since only gained 80 yards in three games on twenty-one carries. Lamb has run the ball some, but its not a consistent threat. His touchdown run on Thursday was more about making a good read, but he also had a couple sprint option plays that were not exactly productive.

We are going to go a little short this week. Why? Sometimes you just have to. Sometime it is pointless to keep rehashing the same problems from one week to the next. The Mountaineers are young, and they are going to continue to look like it until probably next season. There will be times where they look good for periods of time, and others where you wonder if they have ever played the game before. That is all a part of the maturation process. South Alabama will be well served to let their roster of mostly juniors and seniors play sound football and make the young guys beat them. The Jaguars should be able to bend without breaking on defense. Until Appalachian proves it can punch in some touchdowns, other opponents should not worry. South Alabama has just enough of a defense to do that. They may not be the fastest guys, but solid football should keep them close. The Mountaineer defense is going to need a turnover in this game to help their offense, especially with a home crowd to their advantage. If the Jaguars plays turnover free football on Saturday, the Mountaineers are likely beat. I like to think of South Alabama in the same sentence of the old James Madison teams. They will bore you to death until they hit a big play, and by then, its too late, the damage has been done. For the Mountaineers its all about correcting the little things. The penalties and the missed tackles are the biggest concern. Giving up free yardage and not finishing the play are the most frustrating. It’s like handing the game to your opponent on a silver platter. However, this seems like a time where Appalachian might be able to steal a game. The South Alabama offense is worrisome, especially on the road against a team who has been hungry to get back on the field for several days. Their ineptitude to score, except on the road in quiet stadiums, should be a major concern for the Jags. The Rock isn’t Kent State and its not Idaho. This game won’t be indoors and it wont be a comfortable 80 degrees. It will be another 800 feet higher in elevation than Idaho, just enough to get your ears popping and thinking about the surrounding mountains. The Jags are a four point favorite and have played all of their games under the total. I say this game hits the over and the Mountaineers sneak by late.

The First Pick

Mountaineers 27

Prowlers 23