Tag Archives: Sun Belt

App State Football vs Old Dominion

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Appalachian State (3-4, 1-3) vs Old Dominion (4-4, 3-1)

Saturday, November 2nd, 2024 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 63.27

Old Dominion: 67.83

Home: 3.18

Old Dominion is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.38 points

VegasInsider Line: Old Dominion -2.5

Series: App State leads 3-1

Last Meeting: App State 21, Old Dominion 28 October 21, 2023, Norfolk, Va

Quickly, we are back at The Rock for another home game, and for the second week in a row the stakes are just as big as they were last week. To keep any slim hopes in the conference title hunt, the Mountaineers are faced with one goal. Win the week. They will face an Old Dominion team that could not be any hotter than they have been in some time. As the calendar turns into the month of November, coaches and players often say one thing. This is where you are remembered. The Mountaineers have one option, and that is to win. After an up and down season, and a tumultuous last several weeks, the goal is that simple. Go win. Try and set aside what you have been through, or whose services you are without. If you are wearing pads, you are lucky enough, and you have the chance to help your team. Need a leading running back to block a punt? Go do it. Need a reserve kicker to make a special teams tackle. Go do it. This past weekend reminded me of a former starting quarterback, who lost his job, and then started weeks later in the defensive backfield. He didn’t pout about his situation. He remained committed to his team. He went and did it.

Old Dominion remains one of the most mysterious teams in the Sun Belt. Week in and out, you might not know which team will show up, or what surprises they may make across the conference landscape. Despite starting the season with three losses, the Monarchs have turned some heads the last couple weeks with home wins over Texas State and Georgia Southern. Never underestimate the power of a long travel day in the Sun Belt. San Marcos to Norfolk is well over a 1500 mile trip, the longest trip in the conference by far, featuring the team who is situated the furthest west, and its easternmost team. Old Dominion then caught Georgia Southern on a short week, and perhaps after a hangover from beating James Madison and a come from behind win over Marshall the prior week. This week, the Monarchs hit the road to Boone, where they have never won in two attempts. Old Dominion has road wins this season at Bowling Green and Georgia State, both games decided by a touchdown or less.

The Monarchs have been energized by the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Joseph Colton, who lit up Georgia Southern last week in his best game of the season. Joseph threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns and complimented his aerial attack with another 69 yards on the ground. Previously this season, he was a bigger threat running the ball, as he has eclipsed 65 yards rushing or more in five games. The 304 yard performance against the Eagles gives him 875 yards on the season, to go along with being the teams second leading rusher with 412 yards on the ground. The 47 point outburst by the Monarch offense was boosted by a +2 in the turnover margin and by possessing the ball for nearly 35 minutes for the game, both numbers that represent a season high. Outside of last week, the Monarchs had only cracked the 30-point threshold in two other games, a squeaker over Bowling Green in a 30-27 win, and a 37-45 loss to Coastal Carolina.

At this point in a season, you take what you can get. Overall, the win over Georgia State was not pretty, but the final score was needed in a bad way. From here you can build on things that worked and continue to work toward a finished product. It’s a lot easier to watch film after a win than a loss. For the first time all season, Joey Aguilar did not need to throw more than 30 passes in a game, much less a win. That’s a good thing. He posted his second highest completion percentage of the year and most importantly, failed to turn the ball over for the first time in four games. The running game found a groove as well. The last three games provided the best three game stretch of the season as far as total yardage is concerned. For the first time this year, it was Ahmani Marshall who carried for a season high 18 times, and turned in a 115-yard performance to lead the Mountaineers. Kayne Roberts was held to 38 yards but still carried the ball thirteen times. Kaedin Robinson turned a 121-yard effort, which included a season long 50-yard reception, but has still failed to see the end zone after seven games.

Off the top, it’s still tough to imagine any App State football team being an underdog at home, even if by the slimmest of margins. And maybe the more difficult part to digest from a distance is an App State team being spotted points to a team with a 4-4 record. However, that’s what ODU does. They play tough games at beginning of their schedule to prepare them for conference games. They want to improve as the season progresses. Forget the reasons why a team is 4-4 and how they got there, and focus on what they are doing right now. Nobody will remember why ODU won three games in a row six months from now, they’ll just remember that they did. So when a program like Old Dominion, wins a few games in a row, people notice, and that’s exactly why they are favored this weekend. The last such streak for the Monarchs came in 2021, when they won five games consecutively against Louisiana Tech, FIU, FAU, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. The explosion of points last week by Old Dominion is the kind of stuff that strikes fear in the opponents eyes. It’s similar to thinking that they finally put it all together. Besides the Coastal game, this point total is a little bit of an outlier. The Monarchs played from behind in that one but could not catch up. The Georgia Southern defense can give up chunk yards, and a high rate of third down conversions, and that showed last Thursday. This might sound crazy, so I’ll whisper. I think App State’s defense has played better situationally as of late. The Eagles were stunned offensively, and had to abandon the run game, something that they weren’t especially good at in the first place. And once a team like Old Dominion finds a way to expose you, they will keep going back to those same plays until you figure it out. They are unafraid to run the same concepts over and over. I would expect a similar run/pass ratio for the Mountaineers that they had last week. They were successful enough running the ball and Joey Aguilar took care of the football and found open options better than he has all year. Taking care of the football is a must, in what I call a 50/50 game. This one all depends on who has the ball at the right time and has the fewest unforced errors throughout. Don’t get caught committing a pre-snap penalty on a medium to short yardage situation that gives the other team an easier down and distance. Clearly, stay away from personal fouls after a big play that can flip the field and momentum to the other side. Give yourself a chance to play another down, by simply accepting your losses, and avoiding turnovers. If the Mountaineers can play their game, they will win. Just go do it.

The First Pick

Blue Lions 27

Mountaineers 35

Appalachian State @ Louisiana

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Appalachian State (2-3, 0-2) @ Louisiana (4-1, 1-0)

Saturday, October 12th, 2024 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Cajun Field

Capacity: 41,426

Surface: Matrix Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.01

Louisiana: 67.45

Home: 2.85

Louisiana is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.29 points

VegasInsider Line: Louisiana -10.5

Series: App State leads 8-3

Last Meeting: Louisiana 24, App State 16, November 4, 2021, Lafayette, LA

Last week, the Mountaineers returned to football. It was a step in the road to recovery in the sense of returning to a normal routine. The result was obviously not what we were looking for, and the mistakes that occurred on the field can be expected from a group of young men who have gone through a disaster like nobody has ever seen in this state. Just getting on the field is a win. For a couple hours on Saturday, we thought about silly things like turnovers and penalties. But as the fourth quarter wound down, and the result was clear, slowly our minds crept back to the reality of a recovering region. And by the time we play again this week, we’ll take another step. Eventually schools will reopen, and roads will be repaired, bridges built and our communities will come back to the life we once knew. It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. We just have to do it together.

It’s hard to believe that we have not seen these guys since 2021. The Mountaineers have played the Cajuns more times than any other Sun Belt team since they joined the league. Three times, they played against each other for the Sun Belt Championship. But after the conference expanded to 14 teams, those meetings which seemed annual, took a hiatus for a couple seasons. So what has Louisiana done since the last time we saw them? First off, they lost Billy Napier to Florida, who in turn, has had enough of him. Enter Michael Desormeaux, a first time head coach, who has spent his entire coaching career at Louisiana after a playing career as a Cajun. He is as much Cajun as Shawn Clark is Mountaineer. The Cajuns have had a 6-7 record in each of the last two seasons, but are off to a 4-1 start to the 2024 campaign. They garnered wins against some bad schools in Grambling, Kennesaw State and Southern Miss. They lost to in-state rival Tulane 41-33 and went to Winston-Salem and knocked off the Deacons 41-38. The Tulane loss looks like a quality one, as the Green Wave’s only two losses are to ranked teams, while any road scalp of an ACC team is better than not having one.

Louisiana is always going to be about one thing. They are going to run the football, and pass when they need to get you out of the box. They average nearly 190 yards per game on the ground, which is good for 40th in the nation, but it’s a healthy running game, gaining 5.5 yards per carry. More importantly for the Cajuns, its a group effort between two running backs. Bill Davis and Zylan Perry have been used interchangeably in their offense. In five games, Davis has 53 carries and Perry has 40 carries, with both having eclipsed 300 yards on the season, and both have healthy yard per carry averages at 6.8 ypc and 7.6 ypc respectively. Davis’ high water mark for carries in game occurred in the last two weeks, as he toted the ball 13 times against Wake Forest and 14 times against Southern Miss. Perry had a season high 11 carries against Wake Forest. Perry has also snagged seven passes and serves as a kick returner for the Cajuns where he averages 29 yards per return.

The Mountaineers took a baby step last week. The offense was able to to put some points on the board, but their own early miscues dug themselves a hole they could not get out of. Despite allowing another opening drive score by Marshall, the Mountaineers answered, and then took a lead after the first play of second quarter at 10-7. Sixty-two seconds later, Marshall had scored on a 75-yard pass play, and a 13-yard interception return, and suddenly, the Mountaineers were back in that unwelcome yet familiar territory. The Mountaineers never got closer than 11 points for the remainder of the game. You could consider the entire second half as garbage time. The points were there, but the stops were not. Marshall punted twice, kneeled out the clock to end both halves, and scored on every other drive. South Alabama punted three times, fumbled once, and score on every other drive. A lot of improvements could be made by just forcing the other team to punt two more times over the course of the game. The odds of winning would go up tremendously.

Back before this season started, the stretch of games in September were the ones that were most talked about. A gauntlet of some sort, with a power opponent, an in-state rival, a short week and premier peer game. Nobody talked about coming off of September and heading into two road conference games in October. Now with the Mountaineers record at 2-3, and having lost a game on the schedule, getting to six wins feels like a task. Now that your record likely needs to be 6-5, there is less margin for error if a bowl game is part of your future. It makes this game against Louisiana almost feel like a must win. And that’s a bad spot to be in so early in the season. Somehow, someway, the Mountaineers are going to have to find a win in Lafayette. A three game losing streak going into an off week does not bode well. So how are they going to do it? Louisiana has played some subpar teams. We have talked about that already. The Cajuns defense held those three teams to a total of 32 first downs. And those stats aren’t skewed. Grambling 12, Kennesaw St 12, Southern Miss 8. Tulane converted 18 first downs, which is a rather pedestrian amount until you consider they benefitted from an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return touchdown. Those scores put the Green Wave up eleven points and they cruised to the finish by running the football. Tulane only threw for 83 yards the entire game. They didn’t need to throw. Wake Forest converted 28 first downs against Louisiana, and five of those were by penalty. Someone please shout to the heavens “ACC REFS!!” Still Wake was able to do pretty much whatever they wanted to do. They accumulated 218 rushing yards and 254 passing yards, which doesn’t include 83 yards in penalties. What am I getting at? I do not think the Cajuns defense has been tested. Louisiana still came out of Winston-Salem with a win, but that’s mainly because Wake’s defense is struggling just as much as Appalachian’s is right now. Wake only forced one Louisiana punt, and the Cajuns turned it over on downs once. Every other possession was a score. Sound familiar? Another odd statistic that means nothing, but could mean something. Cajun quarterback Ben Wooldridge has thrown all three of his interceptions in the two home games Louisiana has played. Appalachian has just one interception on the year, which is abnormal. But in order to get the picks, you have to slow down the ground game. That’s where it all starts and ends.

The First Pick

Peppers 30

Mountaineers 32

Appalachian State vs South Alabama

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Appalachian State (2-1) vs South Alabama (1-2)

Thursday, September 19th, 2024 7:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Astroturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 69.61

South Alabama: 63.62

Home: 3.26

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 9.25 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -7.5

Series: App State leads 4-1

Last Meeting: App State 31 South Alabama 7, November 13, 2021, Boone, NC

We almost did that thing again. But this time it was different. After a whirlwind first quarter that resembled the previous week, the Mountaineers settled into their groove. It will be a memorable win in a series that divides households and workplaces. Any road win is a big one, but a road win in state means a little more. Those celebrations cannot last long, because we get right back after it a couple days earlier this week. On top of the quick turnaround, this game also means a lot more than just any other game. It’s an all important conference game, a ring game, that will count towards the ultimate goal of playing for a championship in December. South Alabama will pose a good test, especially on short rest. But coming into Boone is not an easy assignment for anyone. Especially when you get the energy of The Rock on a school night.

For the second time this season, Appalachian will face a team with a first year head coach at the school. Major Applewhite assumed the role when Kane Wommack left South Alabama to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama. Applewhite has been around the block, even for a guy who is yet to reach his 50th birthday. The former Texas quarterback still has many active Longhorn records, but spent most of his time as a quarterback’s coach and offensive coordinator at his many stops. Just like his first coaching gig at Houston, he had spent time as the play caller before getting the top job. Applewhite coached the 2016 Las Vegas Bowl for Houston and two more seasons in 2017 and 2018 before being fired for losing three bowl games. He resurrected his career like most coaches and became an analyst for Alabama before landing in Mobile in 2021. He was once again a QB coach and offensive coordinator before getting the head job this past offseason. The beginning of 2024 has been slow for the Jaguars, with two losses to peer schools in North Texas and Ohio before rolling up 87 points on FCS Northwestern State last Thursday night.

Freshman Gio Lopez is the starting quarterback for South Alabama. He handled all the passing downs in the first game against North Texas. However, he suffered an injury and did not start against Ohio. Bishop Davenport started the Ohio game. Both Lopez and Davenport played against Northwestern State, but it’s Lopez’ job. Both quarterbacks are dual threats. South’s offense looked pretty much the same in those first two games. Lopez lit up North Texas with 432 passing yards and added another 62 yards on the ground. However, the Jaguars fell short in a 52-38 defeat. South Alabama allowed a punt block for touchdown that they could not overcome in the third quarter that forced their offense to the air. Even in the Ohio game, South Alabama looks to be quarterback centric. Davenport shared the rushing opportunity lead with Fluff Bothwell. Both were credited with ten carries. There is no question that South Alabama has an offense that can move the ball, but their balance seems slightly off and their season could be dictated by their health at quarterback.

App State started slowly again before they eventually settled down and let the game come to them. The Mountaineers quickly fell into a hole the same way they had done the week before, by giving up a long touchdown pass on the opening drive. The lead swelled to 16-0 before the Mountaineers finished the first half scoring three times in the second quarter to draw within two points. The Mountaineers took the lead they would not surrender on a 36-yard touchdown pass from Joey Aguilar to Makai Jackson, who has now scored in every game this season. Aguilar threw for a career high 424 yards through the air, ranking as the third best passing output in Appalachian history, while completing 68% of his passes on the day. Aguilar hit his top three options, Jackson, along with Christian Horn and Kaedin Robinson for a combined 18 completions for 323 yards, at nearly 18 yards per reception. The run game did enough at the right time, as Anderson Castle once again paved the way for 40 tough yards.

The Mountaineer defense faced some big time adversity on Saturday. Besides being down several starters for injury prior to the game, and losing two more impact players due to targeting calls, they bucked up and kept the Pirates out of the end zone outside of the first drive. East Carolina finished the game with 324 yards, which is a fantastic effort in this era of college football. Only 199 of those yards came after the first quarter. In the third quarter, the East Carolina’s offense ran 24 plays that covered 104 yards and they had three points to show for it. This game came down to making winning plays when they needed to be made, and not caring who made the play. Thursday night will be another huge test for the App State defense. In addition to playing on a short week, South Alabama can get the ball down the field in multiple ways. Running back Fluff Bothwell had a big game against Northwestern State, but was also productive against North Texas and Ohio, with 16 carries for 100 yards in those two games.

We have alluded to the fact that South Alabama has a decent offense and it looks like they might be able to score some points. The Northwestern State game has to be completely dismissed when discussing what we think the Jaguars can do. That game is not great for college football. Besides that game, South Alabama probably played two teams that are complete opposites. North Texas has always thrived as a “basketball on grass” kind of football team. They love their passing offense and defense has always been optional. Last year North Texas went 5-7, and in their 5 wins, they averaged 42 points a game. In their seven losses, they gave up 41.8 points per game. So should a 52-38 game between North Texas say more about a typical Mean Green game or does South Alabama have it? Let’s revisit the other game the Jaguars played this year. Ohio has always played an old school type of football. Good defense and a strong running game has always been the their forte. South Alabama played that game with a backup quarterback. The final score was 27-20. The 27 points represents the most points in three games that Ohio has scored. They scored 22 in a loss to Syracuse and only managed 21 points against FCS Morgan State. Ohio ran for 200 yards on South Alabama on 40 attempts. Ohio ran for 148 yards on 38 attempts against Morgan State. So it seems, that the South Alabama defense has some holes. They look like a team that might prefer a high scoring game compared to one where defenses have a chance. So that is where the question marks pop up. Which App State defense will we see on a short week? The Mountaineers clamped down on East Carolina last week after the first couple drives, and arguably, won the game. Or do we see an App State defense that has given up explosive plays for touchdowns in every game this season? The Jaguar defense can also be had. Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro, in his first year as a starter since high school completed 20 of 28 passes for a season-high 204 yards against the Jags, and added 62 yards and a rushing touchdown. North Texas signal caller Chandler Morris completed 32 of 41 passes for 415 yards, three touchdowns with zero interceptions and zero sacks. The Mean Green also had a wide receiver complete a 31 yard pass in the game. If you add up all those attempts over those two games, South has allowed a 75.7% completion rate. Joey Aguilar also had a season high completion rate against East Carolina. I can see another 300+ yard passing day for the Apps, and if that happens, the running game should get its opportunity to feast in the second half.

The First Pick

Salamanders 21

Mountaineers 36

App State Football vs Miami (OH)

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Appalachian State (8-5, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Miami (OH) (11-2, 7-1 MAC)

Saturday, December 16th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ABC

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

FBC Mortgage Stadium

Capacity: 45,301

Surface: Tifway 419 Bermuda

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.98

Miami: 68.36

Home: n/a

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.62 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4.5

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

Last time out did not go as planned. Troy was a deep and very experienced squad, and the Mountaineers are still a little green in spots. It gives App State a measuring stick to what needs to be done in the future to complete the reset. But that process has begun. And the mantra in the last half of the year was to keep digging. The breakout was coming. Luckily the Mountaineers had two chances to bring some hardware back to Boone this season. The last couple weeks have been tough, knowing for some players who are playing their last game in black and gold that this moment was coming. But they do have one more opportunity to leave their legacy. Before them is a game that can set the table for 2024 and beyond that can get App State back to the place they belong. It’s been 42 years since App State played on ABC, and they earned this opportunity to show the world what this school is all about.

This will be the first ever meeting between Miami and Appalachian State. There is zero history to fall back on or even reminisce about. The Mountaineers have enjoyed success against the Mid-American conference of late. App State won their first three bowls games from 2015-2017 against Ohio, and Toledo twice, but have not faced anyone from the MAC since then. Miami has had their best season since 2010 when they finished with a 10-4 record and won the MAC title. The Redhawks eleven wins this season is the most since 2003 when they finished 13-1 and won the MAC title. Chuck Martin has been the coach at Miami since 2014 and this was his second MAC championship with the first coming in 2019 when the Redhawks finished 8-6. Martin is 56-61 all time at Miami in his first head coaching job at the FBS level after coaching six seasons at Grand Valley State where he went 74-7 and won two Division II championships.

The Redhawks nonconference slate appeared challenging to start the season. They had the Miami from Coral Gables, Fla. and Cincinnati on their schedule along with FCS Delaware State and perennial FBS bottom feeder UMass. The Hurricanes went 7-5, Cincinnati squandered to 3-9 along with UMass, and Delaware State was victorious just once. Six of the Redhawks opponents finished with four or fewer wins, and only four teams finished with 7 or more wins. This is what typically happens in the MAC. A lot of teams play poorly, and a handful of teams make impressive runs, but you always wonder how good they really are because of the other members in the conference holding them down. Now Miami did get an overtime win on the road in Cincinnati, in the annual Battle for the Victory Bell. It was the first in the series for Miami since 2005. So maybe, after all the soft schedule talk, there was some premonitions of Miami enjoying a special season back in September.  

The hardest thing to look back on is a lopsided final score that didn’t represent how well the game was played for a good 40 minutes. Slowly the dam broke, and it all unraveled in the fourth quarter. No shame in losing, but the waning moments of the championship game was sure to leave the Mountaineers unhappy. App State lost out on their chance for one championship and will move on to another. After sitting out of bowl season in 2022 and losing a championship game and bowl game in 2021, this postseason appearance is critical. We were all witnesses to the five-game win streak and ultimate turnaround of the 2023 season. The true measure of that switch will come with a bowl victory. It’s very tough to imagine even thinking like this. App State won their first six bowls game, a record that will likely never be matched. And the only bowl loss was to a generational passing offense with the Mountaineers licking their wounds in the secondary from opt outs and injuries. But that is the case anymore in college football. The postseason no longer looks like the regular season and your roster and strategy flips almost overnight.

So, in terms of acting like bowl games are the postseason, it really is a preseason-type game to prepare for the 2024 season. There are plenty of transfers on both sidelines who contributed to their team throughout the season, who will not contribute to this bowl game. But as always is the case with App State football, an absence by one player creates an opportunity for another. This game will further open the door for players like Makai Jackson, Dalton Stroman and Kanye Roberts to breakthrough and help cement roles and potential legacies for the future. We all remember performances in bowl games from names that will never be forgotten. The Zach Matics walk off in the first Camellia Bowl. Darrynton Evans’ kickoff return for a touchdown for the following year in Camellia Two. I am going to keep going. Jalin Moore’s three touchdowns in Toledo Two to go along with Clifton Duck’s interception and ensuing antics. Wide receiver Malik Williams tossing not one, but two touchdown passes against MTSU in New Orleans One. Thomas Hennigan mossing the UAB Blazers for two touchdowns in New Orleans Two. And finally, Camerun Peoples setting a single game rushing record to go along with five touchdowns against North Texas in Myrtle.

You may notice that we have not really dug into the game or yearly statistics just yet. Honestly, there is not a lot to choose from. The Mountaineer defense will face a familiar feeling this week as they did earlier in the season. For a stretch of games, quarterback uncertainty on the opposing sideline made it difficult to scout and prepare. While that issue fizzled as the season went on the Mountaineer defense began making major strides. The turnovers started flowing which triggered a five-game win streak. So, enter the Miami Redhawks who lost quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season ending injury. Gabbert had started 39 games in his career and is responsible for 66 touchdowns. Aveon Smith led the way from the October injury for Gabbert through the conference championship game against Toledo. Smith then cited his intent to transfer as a graduate with two years remaining to play. That leads Miami to turn to Henry Hesson and Maddox Kopp. Hesson has appeared in three games in his career and Kopp has yet to see the playing field for Miami this season. This is why this situation feels less like the continuation of the 2023 season and more like an audition for next season. This is not new to college football, but it is new to App State. It’s bowl season, so anything is really on the table. You could see a completely different Miami offense or one that plays a lot more conservative than usual. Whatever comes from the quarterback position from Miami is likely to decide the game. Otherwise, the Redhawk offense does not come across as explosive. They average 331 yards a game, which is 100th out of 131 teams. App State opponents ULM, ECU and Wyoming are behind the Redhawks nationally in total offense. That provided Mountaineer fans two close games and one lopsided. The close games were both on the road, way back in September. The defense is the Miami calling card. They hold opponents to just 325 yards per game, which is good enough for 27th nationally. The only other App State foes with top 50 defenses were Troy, Wyoming and East Carolina. It’s interesting that the teams that might resemble Miami the most on paper were App State opponents at the beginning of the season. Miami has more offense than East Carolina over the course of the season, but what does Miami give back with a third and fourth option at quarterback playing in the game? The Wyoming defense was pretty good in how they kept opposing offenses in front of them. The problem the Mountaineers had against Wyoming was scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Miami has allowed just 36 red zone trips from opponents and gave up touchdowns just half the time. That will be a huge key for the App offense, in a game where rain could have an impact. I question the Miami offense having enough, especially considering this is the best passing attack their defense will see all year, rain or shine. Give me the Apps to cover going away.

The First Pick

MyHammy 17

Mountaineers 34

App State Football vs Troy (Sun Belt Championship)

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Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Troy (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, December 2nd, 2023 4:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Veteran Memorial Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Prograss

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 72.54

Troy: 74.16

Home: 2.33

Troy is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.95 points

VegasInsider Line: Troy -6

Series: App State leads 8-3

Last Meeting: App State 32, Troy 28, September 17, 2022, Boone, NC

For the ninth consecutive year, App State has won at least five home games. Three straight years averaging over 30,000 fans at Kidd Brewer Stadium, and just a couple hundred away from eclipsing 35,000. There is no doubt, when you come to Boone for college football, you leave entertained. However, Kidd Brewer Stadium is quiet for now, and the Mountaineers will take their show on the road for the final two games of the season. That has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Two more games. Only twenty FBS schools will play their thirteenth game this weekend. For the fourth time, App State will represent their division in the conference championship in just six opportunities. This feeling is the familiar territory we missed last year. It hurts to think about it the past, but it should make the current moments worth it more in the end. Whether the Mountaineers win or lose on Saturday will not define their season. Troy is a worthy opponent, and they won the conference a season ago. But that was last year, and nothing that happened a year ago will have an impact on this game.

Ten of the fourteen Sun Belt coaches picked Troy to represent the West division back in late July. The other four coaches picked South Alabama. Troy led their division for most of the season and cleared the division by three games. Only two of their conference games were decided by less than seven points being a two-point loss to James Madison and a touchdown win over Louisiana just a couple weeks ago. Only FCS Stephen F. Austin scored more than 30 points on the Troy defense, and that was the first game of the season. Western Kentucky and Louisiana were the only teams that scored 24 points on Troy. Everyone else: 17 points or fewer. For the season, Troy has allowed just 13 points per game to conference opponents, but that number has ticked up slightly the last three weeks to 18.3 points per game. Considering their opponents were two of the worst teams in the conference in Southern Miss and UL-Monroe, that might throw some caution to the wind. Louisiana was playing for bowl eligibility and got there, while the others were playing out the string.  

The Troy defense is elite. Easy to see there. Does not a take genius to figure that out. The Trojan offense is one of the better offenses in the league, but it does not compare to leading statistical categories like their counterparts do. Quarterback Gunnar Watson has played in parts of six college football seasons, all at Troy. Watson was on the 2018 Troy team that lost to App State 21-10, which was a winner-take-all game to represent the East in the inaugural Sun Belt Championship. Watson did not play against App State in 2018 or 2019 but has played in the last three matchups. None of them have ended well for Watson although last year was the closest, he and Troy had come.  In those three games, Watson has completed just over 60% of his passes for 526 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He has thrown an interception in each game he has played against the Mountaineers, who coincidentally lead the Sun Belt with 15 interceptions this season and have eight interceptions in their last four games. The Mountaineers are 7-1 this season when intercepting a pass.

With senior day recognitions, Armanti Edwards’ number retirement and generally cool weather, the Mountaineers started a little slow last Saturday, but took advantage of four Georgia Southern turnovers to pull away. The Mountaineers scored immediately after each Eagle turnover, with two scores quickly responded by one play touchdowns. The Mountaineers also dominated the middle eight minutes of the game, scoring an unheard of 17 points even with a turnover of their own. After the score was tied at 17-17 with just 2:33 remaining in the second quarter, App State reeled off 34 consecutive points before allowing a kickoff return touchdown and field goal that cut a three score lead to a three score lead by Southern. Yes, you read that right. It has been amazing, week after week, how the Mountaineers offense can put up 532 yards and it feel like everyone got a piece of the pie. Eight receivers caught passes, with seven catching two or more. Three different running backs eclipsed 60 yards, which was more than the Eagles leading rusher.

The win last week coupled with James Madison taking out their frustrations on Coastal Carolina has put the Mountaineers in the spot they always hoped to be in by playing for a conference championship. The turnaround has been a true team effort. The offense can always play better, but when buoyed by their defense, a team can take on a completely different look. Weeks ago, we discussed slow starts with offense and it was hardly even noticeable this past week. If anything, this game resembled a microcosm of the entire season. A slower start that led to convincing win. Once the floodgates opened the Eagles were toast. Saturday marked the third straight game the Mountaineers recovered a fumble. They had just three in the previous nine games. Troy does not give up a ton of sacks, but all twenty-three sacks have come in six games. Turnovers or other impact plays, whether by attacking the ball at the line of scrimmage, on special teams, or in the secondary is what has made it tough for teams to overcome the Mountaineers and their offense.

What more could anyone ask for in a championship game? In the era of the Sun Belt championship game, the participants are usually decided by results that mattered in the regular season. Sometimes, there was a head-to-head battle that broke a tie in each division. In 2018, App State beat Troy in the regular season finale in a game that decided who would host the title game. In 2019 & 2021, the App State and Louisiana regular season winner would eventually host and win the conference championship. Last season, Troy defeated South Alabama in the regular season and hosted. Coastal Carolina defeated Marshall in the regular season which gave them the opportunity to participate. Hosting has mattered over the years. A road team has yet to win a conference championship game and usually the hottest team has also claimed the title. In 2018 and 2019, App State won their last six games in respective years. Louisiana won their last thirteen games in 2021, and Troy won their last eleven games last year. If you have noticed, we do not talk about 2020, because there was no game, cough, cough. Arguably, this is shaping up to be the best matchup in the history of the conference championship because we have two teams who are streaking right now. Troy is riding a nine-game streak, while the Mountaineers have won five in a row. The Trojans won the division going away and App State has had their back against the wall for last half of the season. In the last five weeks, Troy has been scoring touchdowns almost exclusively in the air. Gunnar Watson has fifteen touchdown passes during that span, and other Troy quarterbacks have tossed for two more scores. The Troy ground game has steadily run for a single touchdown in each of the last five games as well. Troy has determined their offensive course of action and have not strayed from it. That’s an easy path to take when their defense has been so consistent all year long. But what happens when that Troy teams sees the most balanced opponent they have faced in a long time. The last five Troy opponents are not exactly lighting the world on fire. Sure, both schools have had common opponents. The timing of when App and Troy played those four games gives us zero indication as to what we could expect this weekend. What we do know is that Kimani Vidal is a good running back who does not go down on first contact. He averages 112 yards a game, but Vidal gained 493 yards in two games against Stephen F. Austin and Arkansas State, who was dead last in the conference in rushing defense. In fact, over a third of Vidal’s rushing yards for the season come in those two games. Against James Madison, Vidal was held to 27 yards and there are plenty other examples where Vidal was limited, yet Troy was able to prevail. Keeping Vidal contained will do wonders for the backside of the Mountaineer defense. This is the true game within the game. Whether or not Troy can find enough rhythm on offense could be a deciding factor. Troy is well balanced, and if the Mountaineers can keep them off balance, and can roam the secondary, it will be a huge boost. Eventually the road team woes in the conference championship will come to and end. This might as well be this week.

The First Pick

T-roy 26

Mountaineers 31

App State Football vs Georgia Southern

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Appalachian State (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs Georgia Southern (6-5, 3-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 25th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 71.23

Georgia Southern: 62.65

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.01 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -8.5

Series: App State leads 20-16-1

Last Meeting: App State 48, Georgia Southern 51, November 26, 2022, Statesboro, GA

It’s difficult to describe if you were not present last week, but everything about last Saturday felt like big time football. Compliments to James Madison for a great environment and thanks to College Gameday. We all knew what the panelists would say last week. They were present to tout their hosts. As expected, as App State received the same treatment from the crew last season. But that week is behind us. The list of schools who want to be App State’s rival is long. Get in line JMU. Meanwhile the last game of the season gives us the school who is in front of that line. The gap between the Eagles and whoever else is next is still wide. It will be hard for anyone to supplant the hate and respect that App State and Georgia Southern have for each other. So be thankful for what you have this week. Give thanks for what makes you happy, and what makes you angry. Even if what gives you those feelings are the same thing.

Earlier this season, people wanted to believe that Georgia Southern might be a legitimate threat to contend for the Sun Belt East. Over the course of time, just about everyone has had an inside line for just that. About a month ago, the Eagles were sitting at 3-1 in conference play with their only loss to James Madison. They had four winnable games in front of them, but three of those games were on the road. First came a loss at Texas State in which the Eagles lost by three touchdowns, but it was truly never that close. The Bobcats once led 45-10 before the Eagles closed the gap. Then the Eagles went to West Virginia to face a Marshall team that had scored less than ten points in each of their previous three games. Southern gave up 38 points to a redshirt freshman quarterback, which included a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Then Old Dominion stymied the Eagles on Senior Night in Statesboro, playing a one score game, and defeating the Eagles for the first time in their schools’ history.  

Briefly, we need to discuss this Georgia Southern defense. The 38 points they surrendered to a struggling Marshall team is eye-opening. But if you look back through the entire season you will realize this has been a struggle all year. The Eagles have given up 27 or more points eight times. They have allowed 35 or more on five occasions. So, let’s dissect those five teams. One is currently 4-7 UAB, who is winless on the road this year, but is 21st in total offense in the country. Wisconsin has the 80th best total offense in term of yards, and has scored just 28 offensive touchdowns this season, five on the Eagles. James Madison dropped a 41-spot on Southern while the Dukes’ offense averaged 7.1 yards per play. Texas State scored 45 points on eleven possessions. Seven of their first eight possessions were scores. The other was a fumble. Southern surrendered two second half leads to Marshall and the Herd fumbled four times, but the Eagles only fell on one of them. Marshall converted just two of nine third downs and lost the turnover battle by two.

It’s safe to say that optimism has transitioned into confidence. Going into last week, you could safely assume a good college football game was upon us. Comparing statistics only goes so far when you have good teams facing off against each other. Eventually those kinds of games come down to a few plays on either side. Making those plays was none other than each team’s quarterback and best wide receiver. The Dukes had only given up two touchdown passes in the previous five games, and Joey Aguilar threw three scores, two to Kaedin Robinson, including the walk-off winner in overtime. Another silent assassin was Eli Wilson. Per usual, nobody covers the App State tight end, and Wilson had a career day with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Neither team could run the ball on Saturday, so it came down to Joey Aguilar making the extra play in overtime.  

The evolution of the new Mountaineer defense continues. The Dukes are a well balanced offense that leaned more toward the pass. They had not been a top team in the conference running the ball and the Mountaineers held them to their second-lowest rushing output of the season of just 61 yards. But lately the Dukes had leaned more into the pass which might have played right into the Mountaineers newfound strength. Jordan McCloud still put a solid 289 yards passing, but most of those yards came late in the fourth quarter when Madison was making their late push. The hard work was done in the first half. The six first half possessions for Madison resulted in three punts, two turnovers and one made field goal. As we documented last week, Madison made their pushes in the third quarter most of the year. Madison came out in the third quarter and punted twice and missed a field goal. Even when the Mountaineers played softer late in the fourth quarter, they still forced long touchdown drives of sixteen and twelve plays to keep momentum at bay.

The game this weekend appears to be between two teams heading opposite directions. Both teams are streaking, the Mountaineers winning four in a row, while the Eagles have dropped three straight. Most of us know how dangerous this game is annually, and especially so when it appears that one team is considered highly favored over another. More often than not in this rivalry its harder to win the game you are supposed to win. The new Georgia Southern presents a different kind of challenge than the Mountaineers have seen most of the year. In the second year of Clay Helton’s transformation, he was not as lucky as 2022 in getting the quarterback in the transfer portal he wanted. Davis Brin does lead the conference in passing yards over McCloud of JMU and App State’s Aguilar, but he is not efficient. Even with close to 100 more attempts than Aguilar, he lags in touchdown passes. Part of that is the entire Georgia Southern offense stalls in the red zone. The Eagles have crossed their opponents 20-yard line on 51 occasions but have managed just 26 touchdowns. Seventeen other times the Eagles kicked field goals. It leads to having a great statistic of scoring 85% of the time down close, but that’s simply way too many field goals and not enough touchdowns over the course of a season. It’s great for Southern that they have a good kicker who is accurate and can boot touchbacks 70% of the time, but that’s not winning them enough games in Statesboro. Ultimately their season has come down to offense and defense. Midway through the season, something changed. In their first six games of the season, Southern threw the ball for 331.5 yards per game on roughly 48 attempts per game. During those games they also ran the ball about 27 times a game. In the last 5 games, those numbers have shifted substantially. The Eagles have dipped to 262 yards passing per contest on just 37.4 attempts, while their total rushes have increased by six to 33 per game. Sure, there are fewer conference games early on, but those are balanced out by non-conference games against game that include fewer peers. Roughly, these numbers represent a 20% shift in play selection, from passing to running. Passing yardage went down around 20% as well, but rushing yardage only increased by 11.4 yards a game or just over 10%. Georgia Southern was not tricking anyone. Opposing coaches noticed it, adjusted, and the Eagles have not been as explosive as they were in the first half of the season. A team that commenced an uptick in running plays, with their top running back Jalen White potentially missing the game, against a defense that went from allowing 206 rushing yards a game in their first eight games to just 103 yards a game in their last three seems like a bad mix. If the Mountaineer defense can continue limiting those opportunities, and tackle well in the open field, it could spell a long day for Southern. The Mountaineers must make sure they do not lose this game based on last week’s result. I think its behind them and they are ready for the next step.  

The First Pick

Stinkers 23

Mountaineers 35

App State Football @ #18 James Madison

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Appalachian State (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ James Madison (10-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 18th, 2023 2:00pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Bridgeforth Stadium

Capacity: 24,877

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 70.19

James Madison: 76.04

Home: 2.45

James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.3 points

VegasInsider Line: James Madison -8.5

Series: App State leads 12-5

Last Meeting: App State 28, James Madison 32, September 24, 2022, Boone, NC

We’ve all seen the made for television debate shows. The talking heads of daytime sports viewing remind us all what it’s like when the Mountaineers head to Atlanta for a football game. Same as it ever was, ten times over. And that leads into the fourth straight biggest game of the year for the Mountaineers. The season has been on the line since the second conference loss to Old Dominion. The first goal of securing bowl eligibility has been accomplished. Next up, facing a ten-win team with aspirations of sticking it to the NCAA. And oh yeah, that College Gameday program will be on site, as the Mountaineers will make their second appearance on the show in as many years, but this time as the road team. App State has found a groove and James Madison could be distracted with all the postseason waiver appeals and television cameras and personalities who likely want to talk about the same topic repeatedly.

It will be difficult to spend a lot of time on the James Madison schedule and try and dissect why they have won all their games. Many times, you’ll want to point out, “Hey, they have not played anyone!”, but for Madison, that not exactly the case. The Dukes scored 12 unanswered fourth quarter points to edge by Virginia back in Week 2. It was a P5 win on the road, even if the road trip was only about 60 miles away. Madison has shown they can win in a variety of ways which is typically what is bound to happen over the course of a season when you have ten wins. They have won ugly and pretty. Five of their games have been decided by one score. The Dukes defeated both Georgia Sun Belt schools by four touchdowns. They had some close wins over Troy and Old Dominion, and a win over Marshall that looked more lopsided than the final tally. The important thing to keep in mind is, that they won them all.

The success of the James Madison largely starts with Arizona transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud. Week in and out he has been a consistent force, rarely having a bad week in the stat column. Last Saturday was probably a situation where McCloud could have rested the second half, when you consider the lopsided 44-6 victory over one-win UConn. However, this game was close in the third quarter, with James Madison leading just 16-6. But the next three Madison drives were all touchdowns, most of those yards consumed by McCloud throwing the ball and ending each drive with a touchdown pass. On a day where James Madison had their worst outing of the season on the ground, McCloud shredded the Huskies for 457 yards and four touchdowns. The second half surge has been a common theme for Madison. They led Georgia State by a 14-7 margin at half before scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions in the third quarter. All those drives travelled at least 65 yards on at least seven plays.

There was cautious optimism last week. The Mountaineers had always handled the Georgia State Panthers by convincing scores anytime the two teams played in Atlanta. It was evident from the opening drive from Georgia State that the much-maligned App State defense was ready to take another step in getting things figured out. The Mountaineers forced an opening drive punt after three plays, and then bowed up in the red zone after the Panthers ran twenty plays before fumbling on the ensuing drive. The next nine Georgia State possessions covered all of 63 yards and included eight punts and one interception. The Panthers did eek out a couple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the damage had been done. The Mountaineers scored six touchdowns, three in each half, three on the ground and three by air. It was as balanced of an attack as we have seen all season from the offense despite some bobbled exchanges between the running backs and quarterbacks.

Last Saturday was a day to spread the ball around and six different Mountaineers scored. Makai Jackson had a breakout game, catching two long passes, one opening the scoring in the second quarter to give the Mountaineers a 14-0 lead. Jackson has now scored in back-to-back weeks and had a season high in catches and yards (3/98). Kaedin Robinson snuck behind the defense for a short receiving touchdown and Dalton Stroman turned on the jets for a 77-yard catch and run touchdown to open the scoring on the first play of the second half. The defense was stout all day, defending 87 plays, thanks to the Mountaineers getting up and down the field on offense with ease. They allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. The defense turned the Panthers over twice en route to allowing just 260 yards for the game. After surrendering 588 yards to Southern Miss, the Mountaineers have given up less than that figure in the last two games combined.

At this juncture of the season, most teams have put their best foot forward. Coaches know what they are about to face on the other side of the field. Rarely are there any surprises. From James Madison’s perspective, just about everything they have done has worked. Winning ten games does not happen by accident. Usually, along the way, teams will have a game or two where the margins are closer. As mentioned earlier, the Dukes have played in five one score games. Four of those games were consecutive and started with their Week 2 over Virginia. Three of those games were played on the road. Since that four-game run, James Madison has had it rather easy. Maybe too easy? The Mountaineers have played four nail-biting games on the road, but those games also occurred several weeks ago. An argument can be made that both teams last truly competitive game was against the same opponent in Old Dominion. I’m looking past Southern Miss for just a moment. Bear with me. Both games were one possession games that came down to the fourth quarter. Even with James Madison losing the turnover battle to Old Dominion, they had enough in the tank to slip by. Old Dominion converted nine of their eighteen third attempts, were perfect in the red zone and connected on both field goal attempts. Old Dominion really could not have played much better. But against this James Madison team, you almost must play perfect because they have been for most of the season. In all the “close” games that James Madison has played in, there has been a constant. The Dukes have given up 12 touchdown passes all season long, and every single one of them came in games that were decided by one score. Joey Aguilar has multiple touchdown tosses in every game this season outside of Wyoming, when the Mountaineers offense was also held out of the end zone. For the most part, Aguilar has improved weekly, cutting down on his early season interceptions and has made better decisions overall. James Madison’s defense was dominant against the run earlier in the season but has shown some vulnerability against the ground game of late. Seven of Madison’s opponents have had success throwing the ball against them, excluding teams with bad offensive lines and who have had offenses who have struggled late, such as Georgia State and Marshall. The Mountaineers are one of the hotter teams in the Sun Belt right now and confidence is building. How does it carry over into a huge game for the Mountaineers with the Dukes finally having nothing to play for except pride? This pick will have a little more heart in it than usual, but I believe in the Mountaineers will do what needs to be done to keep the division hopes alive.

The First Pick

Delegates 27

Mountaineers 34

App State Football vs Marshall

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Appalachian State (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) vs Marshall (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 4th, 2023 6:00pm EST

TV/Video: NFL Network

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 66.21

Marshall: 64.44

Home: 2.19

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.96 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -4

Series: App State leads 15-10

Last Meeting: App State 21, Marshall 28, November 12, 2022, Marshall, WV

The last third of the regular season is upon us and this is the time of the year when the championships are decided. Neither App State nor Marshall have looked like a division contending team. Yet the Sun Belt East remains wide open and could be for the taking. One would expect some teams to rise and separate themselves from the rest. This game will be a de facto elimination game for conference championship contention for whoever loses. It could be a fourth conference loss for Marshall or a third for App State, all to division foes. Like this series needed any more spice added to it. These historical juggernauts have routinely gotten into each other’s way since 1977. Marshall has won consecutive games in this series only one time when games were played in back-to-back years (1987-99). When Marshall won the Southern Conference in 1994, their only conference loss was to App State. Ten of the twenty-five games in this series have been decided by one score or less, and Saturday looks to be no different.

The Thundering Herd were having a great start to their season until they got to the month of October. They started the season with four wins but have not won a game since. Three of the first four games were played at home, with the one road game being played at East Carolina, who is now 1-7. Three of the four October games were played on the road, and the other was James Madison on a Thursday in Huntington. There were signs of this Marshall squad appearing to fall behind, but their schedule did them no favors. Looking back, FCS Albany and ECU should have been pushovers. However, the Herd played Albany to a four-point game, and the ECU game was played tighter until late in the fourth quarter, in a game that had a weather delay. Suddenly, the schedule got tougher, but defeating Virginia Tech by a touchdown seemed to set aside the woes of the previous games. After playing in one score games in four of the first five games, Marshall lost the last three games by multiple scores and have zero offensive touchdowns in the last two losses.

The true heartbeat of the Marshall team is junior running back Rasheen Ali. His season got off to fast start, thanks to 91 carries, 475 yards and nine rushing touchdowns in the month of September. However, just like the Herd, Ali has fizzled in October. Ali missed the game against James Madison and has just 218 yards in the last three contests and only two rushing touchdowns. Ali had a season low 12 carries for 52 yards last week against Coastal Carolina. Continuing the theme of the downward October trend, just look at the play of Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. His completion percentage has dropped nearly ten points from month to month, from 71% to 61.3%. In September, Fancher was sacked just twice. In October, he was sacked nineteen times!! So, when you wonder why Fancher did not finish the Coastal game, Marshall coach Charles Huff was quoted, “overall health and general lack of execution.” Huff also mentioned that he would have kept Fancher in had the game been close.

This is what this team will do. We are going to give you some anxious moments in the first half while the offense gets going, and then some tense moments in the second half as the team adjusts, and ultimately gives themselves a chance late. The Mountaineers scored five touchdowns in the second half, and four touchdowns on their final four possessions in the win over Southern Miss. The last three touchdown drives travelled 228 yards and took only 15 plays. Joey Aguilar threw for 391 yards. It might have been the quietist nearly 400-yard performance in recent memory. All that credit goes to the pass catchers who finished in the end zone. Dashaun Davis’ 57-yard touchdown reception was a highlight catch and run. Christian Horn had a superb game with eight receptions, 165 yards and two scores. Eli Wilson also scored on a 26-yard catch and frolic to the south end zone. Although the run game was slowed tremendously, Kanye Roberts turned a middling performance into a respectable one with a 61-yard go ahead score to help him finish with 109 yards for the second straight game.

The defense is still growing and figuring out how to put their best players on the field. Giving up a first drive touchdown has occurred in three of the four Mountaineers’ home games. Playing from behind is frustrating, but at this point, the players are accustomed to it. Understanding your deficiencies is as important as maximizing strengths, and in the short term, might be more important to this group’s success. The Mountaineer defense intercepted six passes in the first four games and allowed just one touchdown pass. Yet, the month of October has seen App State intercept just one pass while surrendering eight touchdown passes. The defense has also allowed over 400 yards in four straight games, and 560+ yards in two of the last three weeks. The 175+ rushing yards allowed in each of the last five games was punctuated by a 301-yard effort by Southern Miss last week. Marshall has the worst rushing offense in the league by a wide margin, even with Rasheen Ali averaging 99 yards a game.

There are a couple different ways to look at this game. Both teams have a unit that performs well above their conference opponents. When App State has the ball, they will have their hands full with a defense that has been mostly stingy, but a lot has been asked of them of late with the Marshall offense stumbling. Conversely, that Mountaineer defense has given up a lot of yards lately. Is it so simple as to which team has the worst unit? This Marshall offense is essentially all Fancher and Ali. They have been asked to do a lot, and at times they have, but there is only so much punishment they can take. A lot of Fancher’s game comes down to scrambling out of the pocket, which forces him to complete a lot of off-platform throws. That is shown by how many yards he has lost as a “runner”. It’s a little sickening to see that Fancher was credited with 45 carries in games against Old Dominion, NC State and Georgia State, in which he gained 136 yards. At three yards a rush, that does not seem too bad, but 102 of those 136 yards came against ODU. The next 30 carries went for 34 yards. This next twelve carries, against JMU went for -66 yards. Keep in mind, this includes yards lost being sacked. Against Coastal, he had seven carries for eight yards. Can you see the picture here? Fancher has been beaten up physically over the past five weeks and the only cure might be rest. The question becomes, how does Marshall maximize their best players, who are dealing with injuries, over the course of the next four weeks? Cole Pennington stepped in for Fancher for the final five drives of the Coastal game. The first went 60 yards over fourteen plays but resulted in a turnover on downs. The other four drives resulted in a fumble, another turnover on downs and two interceptions. Fancher and Pennington threw two interceptions each. Marshall will make a big play or two. Fancher is more likely to make those plays and Ali will not be far behind. The Mountaineers must limit those big plays and counteract them when Marshall gets in long yard to gain scenarios. I trust the App State offense to find the end zone enough times against this Marshall secondary, who is susceptible to balls over the top.

The First Pick

Turds: 24

Mountaineers 30

App State Football vs Southern Miss

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Appalachian State (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-6, 0-4 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 28th, 2023 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: Fieldturf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.29

Southern Miss: 51.48

Home: 2.00

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.81 points

VegasInsider Line: App State -17

Series: Southern Miss leads 2-0

Last Meeting: App State 20, Southern Miss 21, November 20, 2014, Hattiesburg, MS

This sport can be harsh sometimes. The line between winning and losing is thin. Whether it’s one play, one call by the officials, or a collection of a couple plays and couple bad bounces. More often than not, these things even themselves out over time, it just seems most turns of events are bouncing away from the Mountaineers. It’s been a hard pill to swallow for several weeks. Being so close, yet so far. But the only way to change your fortunes is to keep working. And when the bounces start coming back, the wins will become sweeter because you earned it. Nobody wants it more than the players and if anyone does want it more, it’s the coaches, because they want to see it for their players. And most importantly, we all want to see them succeed. So as you normally would, pack your vehicles, head for the mountains, catch up with former classmates and enjoy what is left of the fall foliage. And when you head into Kidd Brewer, give your all, because those players are giving theirs for you.  

Last season, in its first year in Sun Belt play, Southern Miss managed a 4-4 conference record with wins over Arkansas State, Texas State, Louisiana and UL-Monroe. All four of those wins were within the division. They lost both East division games, to Georgia State and Coastal. This season, Arkansas State and Texas State avenged their losses. Most recently, Southern Miss was manhandled by South Alabama last Tuesday evening. The score was 55-3, and it looked worse than that. That game marked the fourth time this season that Southern Miss scored 13 points or fewer in a game. Outside of an opening week win over Alcorn State, and playing high scoring games against defensively bad Arkansas State and shootout prone Texas State, the Southern Miss offense has struggled. Backup quarterback Holman Edwards, previously of Houston, relieved regular starter Billy Wiles, previously of Clemson, in the loss to South Alabama. Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall was noncommittal of who might start this weekend.

The Eagle offense managed 149 yards against South Alabama. Sixty-five yards came on their final drive of the game, in which ended in a fumble. The previous week, Southern Miss lost to Old Dominion, and their lone touchdown was a punt return. Southern Miss has not scored an offensive touchdown since September 30th. They are not as bad as they have played in recent weeks, but their margin of error is quite small. Quarterback play has been a major issue. Wiles has played well against bad teams, and against good teams, he has struggled. All seven of his touchdown passes came against those subpar defenses in Alcorn, Ark. State and Texas State. Those three games were also the only ones in which he threw for 215 or more passing yards. In the other four games, his passing yards never surpassed 180 yards. Those numbers do not seem too far off, but the run game numbers likewise reflect poor output. The Golden Eagles averaged 204 yards rushing in the “poor defense’ games, compared to just 86 yards rushing against Florida State, Tulane, Old Dominion and South Alabama.  

Last Saturday night created a low point for the Mountaineers, who are now on the wrong side of the win-loss column. The Mountaineers scored three times, each time occurring on fourth down. It’s honestly a wonder that the result of this game was not worse. Failing to convert on any of those fourth downs could have the changed the final tally dramatically. Only the Wyoming game created a lower point total for the Mountaineers, with 22. App State scored five times in that game. Plenty of folks have been looking for consistency for the Mountaineers. One of the main gripes was starting games quicker. Turns out, App has played better from behind all season than they have while out front. The Mountaineers scored first against Old Dominion and Wyoming, and held leads in the third quarter, but ultimately lost. Truth is, in the last four games, a game defining odd play has taken place in each fourth quarter that dramatically shifted the result. The blocked field goal at Wyoming. The goal line stop in Monroe. The fumble against Coastal. The botched mesh play in Norfolk.

In his first career start, Kanye Roberts performed about as good anyone could have expected. Still just a redshirt freshman, who had logged only thirty carries this season, Roberts took on 26 carries against Old Dominion. Roberts touched the ball on eight of the Mountaineers ten drives. The majority of Roberts’ yards came in the first half, aided by a 24-yard and 12-yard carry on the second series for the Mountaineer offense. Although his paced slowed in the second half, it was Roberts who carried the ball eight times for twenty-eight yards on the drive that put the Mountaineers up 21-20 in the third quarter. Those carries were not scattered either. All eight carries were in a matter of ten plays, that moved the offense to the edge of the red zone. After twenty carries through the Mountaineers first six drives, Roberts carried the ball just six times on the last four drives.

It’s quite crazy to think we come this far and not mentioned any Southern Miss playmakers. Franke Gore Jr is easily the most recognizable player, being the son of longtime NFL running back Frank Gore. His season has resembled the Golden Eagles season almost to a tee. Gore carried the ball six times in the win over Alcorn State, figuring there was not much need for him to carry the load in an FCS game. Gore eclipsed 100 yards twice this season, in those Arkansas State and Texas State games. All four of his rushing touchdowns came in those games. Since those outings, Gore has been stuck. He carried the ball 29 times for 66 yards against Old Dominion and 12 times for 37 yards against South Alabama. With 434 yards on the season, Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards a carry. Gore is really close to his pace of having a third straight 800-yard season, which is still very consistent, but behind some expectations considering he was a Sun Belt first team pick in the preseason. Backup running back Rodrigues Clark was spotted with a cast on his hand on Tuesday at practice. Assuming Clark does not play Saturday, that leaves the Golden Eagles thin at the position. Next in line for carries would be Kenyon Clark, who has only thirteen rushes on the year, but ten came in their last game. Tiaquelin Mims has a punt return touchdown to his credit and is also Southern Miss’ third leading receiver. Overall, the Mountaineers will be facing another team facing quarterback uncertainties. That makes the fifth game this season they have had to think about more than one quarterback on the opposing team. As a result, the Mountaineers will be preparing for another bottom-quartile team in terms of offensive yards, first downs generated and third down conversions. Oddly enough, Southern Miss is one of better red zone teams in the country, but that is mainly due to being 2nd in the country in red zone field goals. Of their red zone scores, over half of them are field goals. I’d love to sit back here and say something simple, like field goals won’t be enough to beat the Mountaineers at home. Then again, the last four games have been nothing like a Saturday afternoon home game in Boone. It will have been six weeks between Saturday home games for the Mountaineers this week. That’s not an easy schedule to deal with for anyone. App State needs a rebound game in the worst way, and hopefully they can break the trend of one score games.  

The First Pick

Royals: 19

Mountaineers 42

App State Football vs Robert Morris

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Appalachian State (4-3) vs Robert Morris (0-7)

Saturday, October 29th, 2022 3:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Capacity: 30,000

Surface: AstroTurf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.24

Robert Morris: 22.99

Home: 1.94

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 52.19 points

VegasInsider Line: No line

Series: n/a

Last Meeting: n/a

The first step was taken in the right direction. It can be easy to get off your path, and sometimes finding your stride again is twice as hard. But the Mountaineers found something last Wednesday night. It’s understandable if you are not sold yet. That’s a normal feeling. That path might still have some bumps along the way, but its important to be on it. The Mountaineers get a small break before a big game next week, on a short week no less. No looking ahead, but it is hard not to. Robert Morris should not present much of a challenge. That does not mean they are not trying to get better themselves. They’ll try to gain yards, get first downs, score points, and stop the Mountaineers from doing those same things. But this is a game where App State will want to take care of business early and allow those who do not get as much playing time, to have those opportunities to succeed.

The Robert Morris Colonials found the App State football schedule due to Marshall joining the Sun Belt this season. Originally, Marshall and App State were scheduled to play as non-conference opponents, and the hurried restructuring of conferences this past offseason sent the Mountaineers scurrying for a twelfth opponent. Imagine shopping for bread and milk at the grocery store when the snow is already falling. You get the idea. The last team that Robert Morris defeated was Campbell in 2021. And then Campbell turned around a year later and stomped the Colonials 41-10 on October 15th. In fact, in five of Robert Morris’ seven losses, their average margin of defeat is 32.4 points. The Colonials have scored 20 points once this year, in their season opener. Since, they have managed to score 8.33 points per game, and have reached double digit scoring just three times.

The quarterback position has been a merry-go-round for the Colonials this season. In their first game against Dayton, Anthony Chiccitt got his first collegiate start, and Jake Simmons came in for relief in the fourth quarter. The same scenario occurred in the second game against Miami (OH). Chiccitt started and Simmons finished. In their third game, Jake Simmons started, but Corbin Lafrance played most of the second half. In their fourth game, Simmons started again, but was relieved by Zach Tanner in the second quarter. In game five, it was Zach Tanner who started and gave way to Corbin LaFrance. Tanner and LaFrance also got playing time against Campbell, and it was back to Chiccitt last week against North Carolina A&T. Hope you were able to keep up. Of the four primary quarterbacks, neither has played in every game, yet they have all thrown interceptions, and only Chiccitt and Simmons have thrown touchdown passes. Tanner completes just 43% of his passes to his teammates, while 9% has gone to the opponents. That’s a really complicated way to say, he has thrown six interceptions on just sixty-two attempts.

As football goes, you need good quarterback play to win. You can have a variety of playmakers all over the field, but its starts with that quarterback. It’s clear that Robert Morris has lacked in consistency this season at that position. That makes it incredibly harder for wide receivers to do their job, when and when not to expect a pass to be delivered, or for the offensive line to know when that ball might be out, or where that quarterback might be in the pocket. But Robert Morris needs other pieces as well for their offense. Running back Alijah Jackson is the most trusted player in the Colonial offense. He has carried the ball 99 times for 335 yards, without finding the end zone. His 3.4 yards per carry average is second best on the team to quarterback Jake Simmons’ 4.3 yards per carry. But as noted previously, Simmons has played in just four games, and only has eight attempts on the ground. Anthony Purge and Kimon O’Sullivan have filled in at time, but neither has been efficient, both with less than 75 yards to their credit on the season on the ground.

After a slow start, the Mountaineers offense started clicking last Wednesday. It still wasn’t a full sixty minutes of football, but the trend line is heading in the right direction. As quickly as the Mountaineer run game dissipated several weeks ago, it came back in a hurry. Georgia State ran out to a 14-0 lead, and it looked like they might take that into halftime before the Mountaineers put together their best drive of the game. A 12-play, 75-yard drive that consumed five and a half minutes of game clock. That score right before the halftime break ignited a defense, which went on to force three second half turnovers. In turn, those turnovers turned into short fields, and with the aid of a Milan Tucker 63 yard kickoff return, allowed App State to score touchdowns on five straight drives. Whatever happened in the second quarter was the fire the Mountaineers needed. It was a perfect night for running the ball 64 times right at the Georgia State defense, who was helpless in stopping whichever running back that App threw at them.

Just about the only way to compare Robert Morris to anyone that App State has played this year is to look back at the Citadel game. Sure, both schools are in the FCS, but they are both very bad on offense. Fresh off a win last weekend at Western Carolina, Citadel scored over 20 points in a game for the second time this season. That has only happened once this season for Robert Morris. The Citadel is averaging 284 yards of offense this year, which is 112th out of 123 teams. Robert Morris is 122nd in the FCS at 222 yards per contest. Want an idea of how far 222 yards is? It’s not even a down and back of entire football field, including end zones. Robert Morris has a total of nine offensive touchdowns on the season, which ties them for dead last in total offensive touchdowns in the FCS, with Lafayette and Bucknell. Robert Morris has two more touchdowns than Iowa, which only has seven. Fort Lewis in Division II also has scored seven touchdowns on offense, which is dead last in that division. And there are about a dozen teams in Division III who have yet to score nine touchdowns on offense. That was one unplanned rabbit hole, but we found the bottom somehow. Back to the Citadel, a team who clearly runs the triple option. The Citadel has completed 49.5% of its passes this year, while Robert Morris sits at 50.5%, both figures that sit in the bottom twenty of all FCS schools. The Colonials are dead last in FCS in third down conversion percentage at 21.8%. This Robert Morris team might be the worst offensive team the Mountaineers have ever faced. It’s brutal. However, to consider that the Colonial defense allows just 34.1 points per game, with the help of only 10 points a game on offense, is actually commendable. There can be two sides of that coin. The Colonials red zone defense is 50th in FCS. They have defended 29 red zone drives, but have allowed just fifteen touchdowns in the red zone, while forcing eight field goals. That’s pretty stubborn defense. But the Colonials have also allowed fifteen touchdown from beyond the red zone. That’s a classic case of playing better defense when there is less field to cover. Is that enough to keep the Mountaineers out of the 60+ point total? It’s possible, but the real question should be whether Robert Morris can score.

The First Pick

Financiers 0

Mountaineers 59