Monthly Archives: November 2017

Appalachian Football vs Louisiana

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Appalachian State (7-4, 6-1 Sun Belt) vs Louisiana (5-6, 4-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 2:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 64.88

Louisiana: 52.52

Home: 2.32

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 14.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -15

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 24, Louisiana 0, October 12th, 2016

On Saturday, Appalachian will play its 32nd game in the Sun Belt Conference, completing its fourth year since leaving the Southern Conference. Those were four quick years. To this point, the Mountaineers have compiled a 26-5 record in conference play, which is only matched by Arkansas State as the best record in conference play during that stretch. Appalachian has finished no lower than third in the conference standings every year. The only time Louisiana finished above the Mountaineers was in 2014, handing the Cajuns their only conference loss that season. The Mountaineers dominated that day, and have ever since in this short three game series. When the Mountaineers entered the Sun Belt, Louisiana was the top dog. They have a winning record against six current conference opponents, have a .500 record versus two opponents, and have a 7-8 record against Troy. Appalachian remains the only team the Cajuns have not defeated. The beatings have also continued to get worse each season, beginning with a nineteen point win in 2014, a 21 point victory in Boone the following season, and a 24-0 shutout by the Mountaineers a season ago. A win on Saturday would give App its second straight share of a conference title, and leave the Cajuns watching the bowl games from their couches.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have had their chances in 2017 to improve their record, but the warning signs came very early in the season. A close 51-48 win over SE Louisiana in an FCS tune up was the just the start. Three straight losses followed to up tempo Tulsa, UL-Monroe, and Texas A&M. The Monroe loss was an absolute shocker. Louisiana had won three straight and eight of nine games in the series. The Cajuns had to score thirty second half points just to hang with Monroe and tie the game at 43 before the Warhawks prevailed in OT. Louisiana surrendered 215 points in the first four games. The Cajuns then rallied for wins in three of their next four games, and kept their opponents from scoring 20 points in those three wins. But, its been ugly lately as the Cajuns have given up big numbers in their last three games; 50 to Ole Miss, 34 in a win over New Mexico State, and 34 to two-win Georgia Southern.

The Cajuns have had to use three different quarterbacks for significant stretches of the season. None of them are particularly good. Jordan Davis has played the most this season, and missed two games in there entirety due to injury. Davis has 1,281 yards, 9 TD’s and six interceptions and has been sacked ten times. Andre Nunez played decently in the four games he appeared in, take away the 47-3 whipping by Arkansas State. Nunez has not played since and has been concussed at least once this season. Freshman Levi Lewis inexplicably played in his third game last week against Georgia Southern, jeopardizing his redshirt status. Lewis was a prized recruit as a dual threat quarterback who played basketball and ran track in high school.

As the Cajuns could start a freshman at quarterback, they will definitely start a freshman running back in Trey Ragas, who is a load and a half. Just like all bigger running backs, you cannot allow them to get started. It will be a tall task for Appalachian. Ragas has one-third of the carries this season for the Cajuns, and he has toted the ball for 799 yards at a 5.9 yard per carry clip. He probably deserves more carries. He has only carried twenty or more times on one occasion, against New Mexico State, and he showed that he deserved it with a season high 132 yards and two touchdowns. Equally as dangerous is senior running back Darius Hoggins. He is a lot smaller than Ragas but provides a good change of pace. Hoggins is another candidate for more work, as he has not topped eight carries all season in a game. Equally surprising, Hoggins had a 75 yard touchdown run against Georgia Southern early on and carried just once more in the game.

This game comes down to Louisiana’s defense. They are downright atrocious. I couldn’t believe the difference when researching why they win, and why they lose. In their 6 losses, the Cajun have given up 49.6 points per game. In their wins, they have allowed 23.8 points per. That is less than half. Not sure I have ever seen such a discrepancy. Their five wins include zero teams at this point that are bowl eligible and their road wins include South Alabama, the most confusing team in the conference, and three win Idaho.

A healthy Jalin Moore is a very welcome sight. Moore might have been as healthy as he was all season last weekend. He received a season high 32 carries vs Georgia State, which topped his previous season high he had in the last game he played in at UL-Monroe. Moore has gone over 100 yards nine out ten times in his career when he received more than nineteen carries. The only exception was Miami. Four times he has reached the 200 yard mark in those same situations. Over a third of his carries have come in his last two games. He is now within striking distance of rushing for 3,000 yards in his career and only six other Mountaineers have accomplished that feat.

We all know why programs like UL-Monroe and South Alabama schedule multiple games against the SEC. They need the money from a pay game to support their programs. Louisiana choosing to play two road SEC contests does not make sense for a school with plenty of resources and facilities. Had they had a lighter schedule, they would not be fighting for bowl eligibility so late in the season. In 2016, it was Boise State and Georgia that littered the Cajun schedule and they needed wins in their final two games to go bowling. The nine win seasons are now a thing of the past, and mediocrity seems to be the goal anymore in Lafayette. So Saturday, Hudspeth and his Cajuns will hope to overcome a long hard trip to the mountains and try pull off another last game victory to throw current bowl projections in the shredder. Meanwhile, Appalachian has its eyes on a rather big prize. This game could certainly affect where the Mountaineers are heading later in December. A win on senior day coupled with another ring of the hand of a star studded graduating class is the goal. The Mountaineers likely have prepared for two different quarterbacks starting for Louisiana on Saturday. Coach Hudspeth wouldn’t tip his hand at his news conference, so the Apps will be pulling double duty in the film room. Regardless of who starts for Louisiana, they’ll have to take care of the football. Interceptions have been big in their losses, but so has their defense. The Cajuns will be facing their toughest defensive challenge of the season. The Mountaineers have improved dramatically in the last two games with the return of Devan Stringer and rank 33rd nationally. The top three defenses that Louisiana has faced this year are just inside the top sixty and they averaged just 15 points per game against those opponents. As much as the onus is on the Cajun offense to score, its reciprocal with their defense to keep their opponents off the board. They have not done that consistently enough this season and I don’t expect that balance to come together this weekend.

The First Pick

Green Peppers 16

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Georgia State

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Appalachian State (6-4, 5-1 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (6-3, 5-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 25th, 2017 2pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Georgia State Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 25,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.72

Ga State: 55.16

Home: 2.31

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 5.25 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -7

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 17, Ga State 3, October 1st, 2016

Back in late August, on the opening Thursday night of the college football season, Georgia State lost their season and stadium opener to FCS Tennessee State 17-10. At that point in time, just about everyone had written off the Panthers. It seems nothing had really changed in previous seasons, but it was also the head coaching debut of one Shawn Elliott. That night has not defined the Georgia State season. It was likely exactly what they needed. They knew they had to get to work. Since, they have won every winnable game, and lost each one in which they were decided underdogs. Penn State and Troy are heavy hitters, and the Panthers were outscored 90-10 in those two games. The tilt with Appalachian was seemingly the toughest part of the schedule remaining. This season is already a success for Georgia State, getting to six wins and becoming bowl eligible, perhaps ahead of schedule. But suddenly, they have tripped into a dream scenario. They control their own destiny for a piece of the conference title and play their final two games in their home venue. Oddly, this will just be the Panthers fourth game at home this season, and are only 1-2 in the previous three games. Their tilt with Memphis was cancelled due to the fallout of Hurricane Irma. For Georgia State, a lot of things surrounding football have been new this season, and now they find themselves in another new spot; competing against a team that has had their number for the chance to play for their first conference trophy.

Georgia State did a little more than stumble into this situation. We should give them a little more credit than that. They do have a win in Monroe that App could not match. Otherwise, both App and State share wins over all other common opponents in Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina and Texas State. Neither of those schools have had good seasons to say the least, with Coastal and Southern picking up their first conference wins last weekend. The Panthers have just one comfortable conference win, beating Monroe by ten points, as the remaining games were decided by just one possession. The same can be said for App this season. Way too many close games, not enough domination, and a whole of newness in some critical places.

When glancing at Georgia State, not a lot jumps off the paper. They are an above average passing offense, below average on the ground, and their defense plays good, and not great or spectacular. Their punting is bad, and they lose just about all of their fumbles. They have missed over half of the field goals they have attempted and have a hard time converting red zone chances for touchdowns. Yet, you do not become 6-3 by accident. Sure, there is some bad football in the Sun Belt this season, and neither Georgia State or Appalachian has been immune to the lackluster play.

Georgia State does have a couple tells when it comes to them playing well. This statistic does not mean everything, but it does mean something. Sophomore wide receiver Penny Hart is an all-Sun Belt caliber receiver, and he is a big reason why the Panthers are in the position they are in. However, they need him to be on, and involved from the start. The Panthers are 6-0 when Hart hits at least 85 yards receiving and averages over ten yards per catch. Conversely, Georgia State is 0-3 when Hart has fewer than 56 yards in a game and averages less than ten yards per reception. Containing Hart is a big key for Appalachian. The Mountaineers have contained Hart so far in his career, holding him to a 3/13 line last year, and 5/47 line in 2015. Hart played in just a few games in 2016 and redshirted after an injury.

Panther signal caller Connor Manning has had an improved season over 2016, where he threw thirteen interceptions to just sixteen touchdown passes. His accuracy has improved by nearly ten percentage points from one season to the next, which has helped his yards per attempt average by nearly a whole yard. Despite only throwing six interceptions this season, four of those came in the losses to Troy and Penn State. The Panthers have won every game in which Manning has more touchdown passes than interceptions, and threw just one TD pass combined in the three losses. Last season Manning threw a touchdown pass in every game except one, against Appalachian State, where he was picked off four times.

The win over Georgia Southern feels like decades ago, although it was nice to get some time off for team that severely needs to heal some wounds. The game against the Eagles was not remarkable by any stretch. It was pretty basic, and workmanlike. The Apps got the job done, sending Georgia Southern back down the mountain for the fifth time in a row with a loss. The game was not really decided until the fourth quarter, but the Eagles never really threatened, managing just a pair of field goals. Marcus Williams Jr. rumbled for 130 yards on twenty-eight carries. The freshman is up to 395 yards on the season, with all but 52 of those yards coming in the last four weeks.

What we have is two teams that are even in the standings, but have had two completely different seasons. They have both had some close games, but the expectation of each program and their respective win-loss records could not be further apart. Georgia State is in the midst of their first season finishing with a winning record. They are not there yet, and they didn’t quite get there in 2015 either. For Appalachian, we all know that 6-4 is below the expectations set for this season, but once again, there is still plenty to play for. We have not seen the Mountaineers on the field since November 9th, two days prior to when South Alabama did their part in beating Arkansas State and opening the door for others to claim a share of a conference title. This is different than in 2016, when an Arkansas State loss opened the door for the Mountaineers before their game at New Mexico State. This time around, the Mountaineers have had time to let that scenario simmer. Georgia State was also on bye last weekend, but this team has never been there. That coaching staff and that team have never prepared for a game that has so much up for grabs. How will they handle that moment is yet to be seen. What we do have for Appalachian is a team that has been there before. It has played in big games, with an occasional loss, but mostly wins over the last two-plus seasons. That experience is invaluable. What App cannot do is play from behind like they have in every road game this season. A quick start is a must, and possession for both teams is critical. Georgia State will not wow you with their running game, but they know it is necessary to attempt to run. The threat must be there, or else the App defense will begin teeing off. A turnover in the second half will turn the tide in this game, and I think its the App defense that is due for a score.

The First Pick

Still Southern’s Daddy 17

Mountaineers 28

Appalachian Football vs Georgia Southern

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Appalachian State (5-4, 4-1 Sun Belt) vs Georgia Southern (0-8, 0-4 Sun Belt)

Thursday, November 9th, 2017 7:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPNU

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.25

Ga Southern: 45.87

Home: 2.14

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 18.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -17.5

Series: App State leads 18-13-1

Last meeting: App State 34, Ga Southern 10, October 27th, 2016

Boy, did this season come crashing down in a quick hurry. Three games left, none of them guaranteed and it’s November and the Mountaineers aren’t bowl eligible yet. Is it finally the right time for this season to turn around? We might be past that point. How difficult is it to pick everything up after a couple of soul crushing losses. Is it the right time, for your winless and most hated rival to see blood in the water. Georgia Southern would love nothing more than to finish off the Apps slim hopes of a conference title. They would never stop talking about it down there in Statesboro. And that is exactly the reason why we can’t let it happen. The motivation to just beat Southern is all you really need. Nobody gives a darn at this point what the records are. Nobody will care that you beat a spread. When they ask in twenty years what your record was when you played Southern, that will be what really matters. Ten seasons ago, App produced one of its most dominant teams, perhaps ever, but they didn’t beat Southern. We all know how much that games eats at those past legends to this day. These seniors have a chance to become to the first group of players to play in three bowl games in their three seasons of eligibility. That should be your motivation. Get over last weekend, and make a name for yourself that nobody will forget.

Goodness gracious. Where can we start with Georgia Southern? After just eighteen games, Southern relieved their coach, Tyson Summers, and began preparing for the future. They got a head start on searching for their fourth full time head coach this decade, while at the same time giving long time Eagle assistant Chad Lunsford an opportunity to audition for the job. In two games, Lunsford’s Eagles have failed to score twenty points in either contest and have averaged just over four yards a play combined in both games.

So what are the Eagles good at this season? Not really much of anything. Obviously, they are still running the ball, trying to get better with a traditional Southern attack on the ground. They do average 202 rushing yards per game, which is good for 33rd nationally, but they are the only team in top 50 in the country that averages less than four yards per carry, at 3.81 per carry. The Eagles have ten rushing touchdowns on the season. Just ten. That’s usually been done in two games by the Eagles, not eight. At 17.6 points per game, the Eagles rank 121st in the country. They have scored 17 points or fewer five times, and haven’t score more than 27 points in any game. The Eagles inability to score leaves their defense vulnerable, keeping them on the field forever, and eventually get gassed, and scored on. The defense is giving up 38.4 points per game. That is nearly a three touchdown margin per contest. This is not just a team with a bad record, its a team that is just plain bad.

The Southern leaders are familiar faces for Mountaineer coaches. Freshman quarterback Shai Werts made a late visit to Appalachian in his recruiting process before signing with the Eagles. Werts is your typical dual-threat quarterback, perfect for the Georgia Southern system, but he needs time and help. Werts leads the team in rushing attempts, is second in yards, and had two of his better games of the year after sitting out with an injury for the UMass game. Last weekend, Werts had a 22/28 passing game for 147 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t crazy numbers, but for a Georgia Southern signal caller, you’ll take that every day. Werts’ leading receiver, Obe Fortune was also a former App recruit, and was committed to the Mountaineers for some time before changing his mind. Fortune’s 15 catches have covered 189 yards which includes a 50 yard touchdown.

Jalin Moore has had his setbacks this season. From one injury to the next, in and out of practice to putting up the performance he did last weekend without being 100% healthy. It will be mostly forgotten, but he did something that can maybe spark this team by showing some fire when the chips are stacked against you. Moore scored three straight touchdowns for the Mountaineers last weekend. He accumulated 198 total yards, highlighted by his 75 yard touchdown reception. He showed how to be a leader this past week without always being on the field during practice, but giving everything he had when his number was called. Despite this injury riddled campaign, he has still managed 5.0 yards per carry for the year and has amassed 717 total yards in the eight games he has played in.

We’ve all known what kind of team we have had for several weeks now. This is not a group than can overcome multiple mental mistakes and win comfortably. Twice in the past two weeks the defense has given up the go-ahead or tying score in the final moments. That is not what we have come to expect from a Mountaineer defense. It’s super disappointing to say the least, but it is a part of the growing pains of a team that is evolving with new contributors in places where we have been accustomed to familiar faces. The pains hurt, but they’ll pay off in the future. Beau Nunn and Colby Gossett can’t man the right side forever. We’ll be thrilled to have hopefully have three returning offensive lineman next season with significant playing time. There are plenty similar examples all over the field. Although those faces have to eventually change, this rivalry doesn’t. Just about every time Georgia Southern comes to Boone, especially in the modern era, the game has been played in the month of October. The last time this game was played in November in Boone was in 1939. Southern has won in Boone once in the month of November, in the series first game in 1932. Appalachian has won three straight in this series on three occasions, and can make it a fourth on Thursday night by getting back to the basics of playing sound defense. App has shown it can score points if it wants to, but sustaining drives has been the winning formula for this program over the last couple seasons. I am looking for the defense to make up for lost time and send the Eagles back down south for the winter.

The First Pick

EAGLLLLLLLLLES 10

Mountaineers 28