Appalachian State (6-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) vs Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 28th, 2020 8pm EST
Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 71.66
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.83 points
Line: App State -14.5
Series: App State leads 5-2
Last Meeting: App State 48, Troy 13, Troy, AL November 29, 2019
Last week has been beat to death. Coaches move on to greener pastures, players get injured, and eventually the shoe doesn’t fit like it used to. That’s the price of success, and App State might be paying their dues a little. The offense looked great in the first half. They brought tempo, and took the fight right to Coastal. But one team adjusted better than the other, and by the time the fourth quarter came around, one was hanging on, and the other, knocking on the door. It was a fun college football game to watch. Sometimes our team is going to end up on the wrong end of that score. It has not happened a lot, and that is why it can be frustrating and disappointing. The good thing, is that App State gets another chance to show everyone that the best is yet to come. This year’s version is not the 2019 team, or the 2018 team, or the 2005 team. They are their own version of themselves, and that story will get written one day once its all over in this crazy season of college athletics. Eventually, a lot of these upperclassmen will stop playing football, and what they will remember the most will not always come down to rings and trophies, but to how they responded to adversity, and showed the next team how to compete the right way. That lesson will last longer than any play they may have not made.
Troy has played seven opponents in eight games this season. Yes, you read that right. The Trojans opened the season with a 47-14 throttling of Middle Tennessee. Last week, Troy fell to the Blue Raiders by three points at home by a score of 20-17. This was after Troy and Coastal’s game was postponed the week before. So what happened between September 19th and November 21st that changed for Troy? First of all, starting quarterback Gunnar Watson was sidelined after being injured in the Georgia State game on October 24th. Secondly, Troy began to struggle running the ball, having not eclipsed 100 yards rushing as a team in the last four games. Third, Troy’s defense started to crack, allowing big rushing yard totals to opponents such as Georgia State (210), Georgia Southern (326), and Middle Tennesee (186). Even Arkansas State ran for 108 yards against Troy, which is pretty out of character for the Red Wolves.
When Gunnar Watson went out with injury, Junior Jacob Free was more than capable of filling in. Despite not playing the entire game against Georgia State, Free stepped in and threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns, but also added a couple interceptions. Free added 419 passing yards against Arkansas State, but was limited by Georgia Southern to just 201 yards and two interceptions. While starting for Watson, Free and the Trojans were 1-2, but Free succumbed to eight sacks in 2+ games. Watson did not fare much better. A true pocket passer, Watson has been sacked twelve times in his six games, with half of those coming at the hands of Middle Tennessee. Watson has three games with over 300 yards passing, and did all of that against FCS Eastern Kentucky, three-win Middle Tennessee and now two-win Texas State. Watson leads Troy in a high-volume, high-percentage passing attack that values getting the ball out quickly to its receivers. Watson leads in the conference in passing yards per game and completion percentage,
Four different Troy pass catchers are in the top twenty in conference in yards per game and the same four are in the top seventeen in receptions a game. Kaylon Geiger is the leader of the group with 45 catches for 577 yards and one score. Geiger feasted on the lesser teams on the Troy schedule, posting 100 yards and at least seven interceptions against EKU, Texas State and Arkansas State. Geiger’s pace has slowed in the last two games despite catching ten passes against Middle and Georgia Southern, but has only covered eighty-three yards, for just an 8.3 yard per catch average. Geiger was up over fourteen yards per catch in the previous four games. Reggie Todd and Khalil McClain are the touchdown scorers for Troy at receiver. Their statistics are virtually identical, with having caught five scores on the season. Todd is 6’5, 205 pound senior and his five scores all came against the weaker, middle four teams of the Troy schedule (EKU, Tex State, Ga State, Ark State). Todd has just five catches for thirty-eight yards the last two weeks. McClain scored three of his five touchdowns against Middle Tennessee. Another tall receiver, McClain had a season high ninety-two yards last week.
Let’s focus on what App State did well last week. Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel look like they could be a formidable one-two punch out of the backfield, with their completely different styles, but similar results. App State just needs to find the right time to mix in Noel early, while also not overexerting Peoples. App must also figure out a way to continue pushing the ball down the field. Malik Williams has been fortunate to haul in long completions in each of the last two games, but the intermediate throws could increase. The defense did all they could last weekend until the dam finally broke. Outside of two big plays, the defense played extremely well. Troy will no doubt look to strike early on their opening drive just how Arkansas State and Coastal did.
For the first time in a very long time, App State will host a Saturday night game at Kidd Brewer Stadium. In the past, these games were reserved for earlier in the season, when teams were looking for relief from heat. But this Saturday, not only is it a late kickoff, it is coming with winter knocking on the door. Troy is lucky enough to get a game in back to back trips to Boone that will feature some cooler weather than what south-central Alabama usually deals with. That sounds like a game that is made for defense. Both Troy and App State feature some of the best linebackers in the conference. Carlton Martial has 66 tackles, and 7.5 for loss as one of the premier downhill linebackers in the league. Trey Cobb And D’Marco Jackson seem to be trading the App State tackle lead from one week to the next. Both lead the team with 56 tackles on the season. With Troy only allowing 24.3 points per game, and App State being even stingier at 19 points allowed, we all could be in for another close Troy-App State classic. Outside a couple App State blowouts, the games between these two have been close battles throughout the years. Troy presents as a team very similar to Arkansas State, but with much better defense, and an offense that might not be as good as the Red Wolves. However, their lack of a running game is concerning. The Trojans are averaging just 2.54 yards per carry on the ground in the last four games and have converted just seven red zone touchdowns in their last seventeen red zone drives. App State has had their own struggles scoring points, but Troy has allowed opposing quarterback to complete two-thirds of their passes all season long. The Mountaineers will bounce back on Saturday with a two score win.
The First Pick