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Appalachian Football vs Louisiana

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Appalachian State (4-1, 2-0 Sun Belt) vs. Louisiana (3-3, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 20th, 2018 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium 

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 80.79

Louisiana: 57.04

Home: 2.47

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 26 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -25.5

Series: App State leads 4-0

Last meeting: App State 63, Louisiana 14,  December 2nd, 2017, Boone, NC

WxCrum Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, AM drizzle possible, Winds increasing, Temps in the 50’s

Major test number one is out of the way. It took some time for the cold engine to start, but once it did, it ran like a charm. The Mountaineers fell behind 6-0, but responded on the next drive to take the 7-6 lead. Immediately following another Red Wolves field goal, the Mountaineers responded again, to take a 14-9 lead. From that moment, it was cruise control, and Arkansas State is still looking for answers. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers march on to another conference game, with another extended break. Besides the fallout from losing a great team leader and star running back, to the scuttle of trying to crack the Top 25 for the first time in school history, a lot will have happened between playing games. Focus could be tough when your mind is racing several different directions. Last week’s game is over and the team can’t rest on just one big win. Several more games are ahead of us, all against teams that want their shot against the Mountaineers. The Cajuns are 0-4 against App State. Georgia Southern has lost three straight in the series. Coastal is 0-4, Texas State 0-3 and Georgia State 0-4. From here on out nothing will be easy, and the week to week approach is paramount to this team’s success. 

New Louisiana athletic director Bryan Maggard did not waste any time firing Mark Hudspeth. He informed the once popular coach that he would no longer be the head coach the following morning after App State’s seven touchdown win last season. By the end of the next business week, Maggard tabbed one Billy Napier to the Cajuns’ 26th head football coach. Napier is the former Furman quarterback who was infamously involved in one of the most memorable plays and radio calls in Kidd Brewer stadium history. That result from sixteen years ago has nothing to do with this weekend, but it just had to be mentioned.

The Cajun’s were sliding for the past three years under Hudspeth and his ouster was imminent. The program that was considered on of the top teams in the Sun Belt is no longer. Currently, the Cajuns hold the top spot in the Sun Belt West but that seems like they are just renting space. A porous defense with no depth is unlikely to hold up against the some of the stronger offenses in the conference. The schedule does not  do any favors for the Cajuns either for the next few weeks. After travelling to Siberian North Carolina they return to Lafayette for Arkansas St and then hit the road to Troy. If the Cajuns plan to go bowling, they cannot afford any missteps. 

Louisiana was tabbed to finish fourth in the West division when the coaches cast their ballots back in July, but nobody expected the type of dominance we have seen from the East Division. The Cajuns lost at home to second year Sun Belt opponent Coastal Carolina about a month ago in a game that the Chanticleers dominated at every statistical level including possessing the ball for over 38 minutes. But the Cajuns have had a couple “get right” games the last two weeks against two of the worst teams in FBS; hapless Texas State and a very young New Mexico State.

The Cajuns sport a three headed rushing attack in Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais. They have combined to run 185 times for 1,355 yards. They make up 90% of the Cajuns rushing total for the season. All three are averaging well over 6.5 yards a carry and have combined for thirteen touchdowns. Ragas and Mitchell are similarly sized weighing in right around 220 points, while Calais is smaller at 180 pounds. Quarterback Andre Nunez is one of the more accurate passes in the country, completing 68.3 % of his passes. Nunez has eleven touchdown passes on the season, but five of those came last week against New Mexico State in their lopsided win. 

The Mountaineers throttled Arkansas State last week but it came with a huge cost. Jalin Moore suffered a severe ankle injury that will cost him the remainder of his Black and Gold career. Enough words cannot be said about Jalin Moore, and I’m not going to try, but it will be tough not talking about his performances for the remainder of this season. However, it opens the door for others to step forward and show they can handle a bigger load. Several different backs will get their shot to fill the absence, and it might take some time to figure that all out offensively.

Besides Moore’s injury, the story of last Tuesday night was the Mountaineer defense. The Red Wolves were limited to 117 yards on the ground on thirty-seven attempts. Justice Hansen was 25/40 passing, but was held to just 209 yards and App State picked him off three times.  Three field goals are not going to beat the Mountaineers. UNC-Charlotte tried that same strategy and it did not work. 

Louisiana will be a formidable opponent this weekend. Probably more so than Arkansas State was last week. The Red Wolves are trending down, but have not bottomed out as of yet. Louisiana hit rock bottom last year and are working their way back up the Sun Belt ladder. The Cajuns have their limitations this season, but are trying to minimize those weaknesses with their offensive style. They simply do not have the horses on defense to run the offense Napier would like. In turn, the Cajuns will try to shorten this game on Saturday significantly because they have to. They cannot afford to have the nations 116th ranked rushing defense and 103rd ranked passing defense on the field for a long time. The Cajuns are giving up close to seven yards per play. Their best defense will be their offense. Speaking of offense, everyone is curious to see what kind of changes, if any, that the Mountaineers make considering the running back situation. I think everyone gets a chance, and it would not seem prudent to let one man carry the entire load. Considering the issues the Cajuns have in the secondary, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mountaineers decided to air it out a little more than usual and put pressure on Louisiana to score every time they have the ball. That would give the running game some live game experience to work out any kinks and potential rhythm issues. Eventually the Mountaineers will fail to cover a spread, as they have in eight straight games, but I’m not doubting them this weekend. 

The First Pick

Mild Peppers 20

Mountaineers 48

 

Appalachian Football @ Arkansas State

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Appalachian State (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (3-2, 0-1 Sun Belt)

Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 8:00pm est

TV/Video: ESPN2

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Centennial Bank Stadium 

Surface: GEO Surfaces Field turf

Capacity: 30,406

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 78.48

Arkansas State: 64.77

Home: 2.43

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.5 points (rounded)

VegasInsider: App State -9

Series: Tied 1-1

Last meeting: Arkansas State 40, App State 27, November 5th, 2015, Boone, NC

WxCrum Forecast: Partly cloudy with light wind, Temps in upper 70’s

It’s been almost three years. Over a thousand days. A budding rivalry that has barely gotten off the ground will finally go up, on a Tuesday. For the Mountaineers, it will be their first game played on the second night of the work week. Arkansas State is no stranger to Tuesday’s, having played eight such games. This game sits out on an island, or a cape, perhaps an isthmus, as App’s only game in twenty calendar days. Whichever your water feature of choice, this game has been landlocked as a premier match up in conference play. Both schools want to host the initial conference championship game and a win by either would go a long way in securing that honor. Only one of the two can host the game, but both could potentially participate. Beyond the importance of Tuesday night, is the possible chess match that could unfold if both teams played again. Before we get ahead of ourselves, we’ll remind you how both teams have won on each other’s field in the two games that have been played, and although not many players remain on each side, the head coaches do. That’s a feat in itself. Their conflicting styles will factor into this result. Whether it be slow and steady or uptempo and aggressive, one team will be ahead of the curve by the time that Tuesday is gone. 

The feeling in Jonesboro, is that Arkansas State has their most talented offense ever, led by a senior quarterback that throws for a lot of yards and touchdowns. The Red Wolves have been abysmal in non-conference play since Appalachian joined the conference, but that changed in 2018. Arkansas State grabbed peer wins over Tulsa and UNLV that looked good on paper. However, Tulsa is now 1-4 with their only win over, (laughs) Central Arkansas who, famously beat Ark State in 2016. UNLV is currently 2-3, with a wins over Prairie View A&M and 0-5 UTEP. You get the idea. Arkansas State grabbed a couple non-conference wins, but not much to write home about. 

Those wins were enough to keep everyone calm in Jonesboro for the time being, and then they played Georgia Southern, looked the same as they did in their previous two games, and lost. Then all heck broke loose. Hit the panic button. Something has to change. It’s possible that loss was the perfect wake up call for the Red Wolves. They get to play at home, sleep in their own beds for an odd gameday, and they got a couple more days to prepare. 

The conference tabbed Justice Hansen as its preseason offensive player of the year. Hansen also won the award in 2017 with just shy of 4000 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. In 2018, his completion percentage is at the highest its been in his career and his interceptions are down, but his yards per attempt (7.5) is at a career low. Hansen has also run the ball 43 times for 152 yards in his last three games, a 3.5 yard per carry average. He’s on pace to be sacked more times than any other year in his career as well. What does all this mean? Hansen has been asked to do a lot and his team has not responded well to it. 

The Red Wolves rushing attack is spread out. Hansen leads the team in carries with 54, but is fourth on the teams with 189 yards.  Three other backs have carried the load. Marcel Murray, a freshman, has the most yards at 261 and has added a couple touchdowns. Warren Wand, who stands all of 5’5″, has 204 yards on the ground. Armond Weh-Weh is the bigger back and has carried for 190 yards on the season. Arkansas State has three receivers with over 200 yards receiving. Omar Bayless average 16.6 yards per catch and has a 54-yard touchdown to his credit. Kirk Merritt and Justin McInnis have combined for 52 of the teams 127 receptions.  

In a game that many were uneasy about coming in, App State throttled South Alabama 52-7. It had the same look and feel as the win over Gardner-Webb. The Mountaineers pounced the Jaguars early and cruised to an easy win with 348 rushing yards, led by Jalin Moore’s 123 yards and two touchdowns. Zac Thomas pitched in with an electrifying 54-yard touchdown run to highlight his 77 yards. Darrynton Evans had a 42 yard burst to boost his 61 yard effort. Marcus Williams Jr added 59 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. As a team, the Mountaineers have run for 1078 yards in just four games, and 780 of those yards have occurred in the last two games. 

Zach Thomas had an easy day, but was pushed in the third quarter by his own coach to see what he could handle. That eventually led to a couple of interceptions that were thrown when the game was well in hand. Typically a time to give repetitions to younger bench players, Scott Satterfield challenged his sophomore quarterback which provided an opportunity for live in-game teaching moments. Thomas had the help of his defense most of the day, as the Mountaineers shut down South Alabama’s run game to the tune of 2.4 yards per carry. 

Eventually, the “Who did you beat?” game wears off. Appalachian has three lopsided wins and a close loss at a top ten team. Nobody is asking Alabama if they have beaten anyone. I’m not comparing App State and Alabama, but if you continue to destroy teams, your resume speaks for itself. The same can be said about Arkansas State. Their wins are not very impressive, but they are wins. It is the losses that get nitpicked. Arkansas State had plenty of chances to score points against Georgia Southern, but couldn’t execute when the field got smaller. That’s been the case all season. Arkansas State has just eight touchdowns in fourteen trips to the red zone. Their red zone scoring percentage on the season is just .786, tied for 101st in the country. The only Sun Belt teams worse? South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Offense is not the problem for Arkansas State. They have nearly 400 more yards than their opponents. The issue is the inefficiency. The Red Wolves are averaging just 6.0 yards per play, while their defense is giving up 6.1 per snap. On the flip side, Appalachian has given up just 12 red zone scoring chances, allowing nine scores, which is good enough for 29th nationally. The team that finishes their drives will prevail. The Mountaineers will finish a few more drives than the Red Wolves and will take home their second conference win of the season. 

The First Pick

Lil’ Red Riding Hood 23

Mountaineers 37

Appalachian Football vs South Alabama

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Appalachian State (2-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) vs South Alabama (1-3, 1-0 Sun Belt)

Saturday, September 29th, 2018 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN+

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium 

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 77.03

South Alabama: 53.08

Home: 2.70

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 26.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -26

Series: Tied 1-1

Last meeting: App State 34, South Alabama 27, December 5, 2015 Mobile, AL

WxCrum Forecast: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, Temps in the mid to upper 60’s

We are back on track, playing games and no longer fretting about the past. Although a good old-fashioned whipping lacks the drama and intrigue of the conference slate, it was the perfect medicine for what cured the ailments of the App State faithful. Now the attention turns to the most important part of the season: ring games. The hardware is a big reason why you play, the reward at the end of a successful season. Appalachian has aspirations that include winning a title and the first hurdle is South Alabama, one of the five Sun Belt schools to beat the Mountaineers once. Not only are the Jaguars one of the five, they were the first of five schools to beat Appalachian, and one of only two schools to win in Boone. Those small facts are just enough to have the fan base on the edge of their seats for this game. That’s the kind of game you long for. Having just enough butterflies floating around to get you feeling a little funny. But never fear folks, it’s not 2014 anymore, and the Mountaineers are a much more talented group than what they fielded in their FBS infancy. The Jaguars are still trying to find solid ground in what is now their tenth season of football in school history and for the first time, they have a new head coach leading the charge. 

Over the years, the Jaguars seasons have been defined by their week in and week out inconsistencies. They can beat any team in the conference on any day, and can also be beaten any day. That is what eventually got former coach Joey Jones fired. Enter Steve Campbell, a lower division lifer, with stops all over the deep south, including Central Arkansas and Mississippi Gulf Coast CC. Campbell has never had a losing season in nineteen years as a head coach. He grew up on the Gulf Coast and although South Alabama may have not been a dream job, it is a job that makes him very comfortable. He is flanked with numerous coaches on his staff that he has coached with prior which creates a very cohesive group. 

One area that has drastically improved for South Alabama is their offense. A stagnant group in 2017 which averaged under twenty points per game, has increased their output by nine points. The problem is, their defense has done the same. The Jaguars allowed 26.5 points per contest in 2017, and that number has ballooned to 42 points per game. Scoring more points should put your team in position to contend for more wins, but for a team that has allowed thirty or more points in every contest, they likely are not very excited to see a team this weekend that is averaging 51.7 points per game in App State. 

Jaguar starting quarterback Evan Orth has played in every game this season, but only recently became the starter. Orth was listed fourth on the depth chart in the spring, but has outlasted his competition with his resilient nature. One quarterback decided to transfer, another was suspended, and the third was plain out inefficient. The UAB transfer has finally found a home and seems to be running the offense that Steve Campbell likes. A good mix of power reads, options, and the deep ball have kept the Jaguars in a lot of games. Orth has completed 69% of his passes for 789 yards, and six touchdowns to only one interception. Orth also has 113 rushing yards to his credit. Kawaan Baker has been the beneficiary of the option game from the slot. Baker leads the team with 134 rushing yards on just twenty-one attempts, but has crossed the goal line four times. Jamarius Way has over a third of the team’s catches for over half the team’s receiving yards. Way is a big receiver who does not have gamebreaking speed, but enough to be effective. 

In what eventually amounted to as game to pad statistics, Appalachian played just about everyone in their 72-7 win over Gardner-Webb. The Mountaineer offense was dominant from the start, scoring in just three plays on their opening drive and never trailing. It was an expected result that was inflated due to two blocked punts, one recovered for a touchdown, and the other where the Mountaineers scored on the following play. Long touchdowns by Jalin Moore from 81 yards, and D’Andre Hicks from 73 yards including a 62 yard punt return by Clifton Duck highlighted the day. Of the ten touchdown drives, only two of them took longer than five minutes to complete and the Mountaineers punted just once. 

The rushing attack led the day, with 432 yards coming on the ground, with Hicks going for 150 yards on eleven attempts and Moore ending his day with 119 yards on just eight carries. Moore now has 253 yards and three touchdowns on the year, all on just 37 carries. His low usage should keep him fresh for later in the season. Zac Thomas had a light day, with 185 yards passing to up his total to 750 yards on the season. Thomas added one passing and one rushing touchdown. Thomas has had a hand in nine touchdowns for the Mountaineers this season. 

South Alabama has had a difficult schedule to this point. They have fallen victim to always tough Louisiana Tech, and the high octane offenses of Oklahoma State and Memphis. All three are in the top 20% of all NCAA offenses this season. As are the Mountaineers. What those three schools cannot claim is top ten defense. Memphis is 23rd, La Tech is 37th and Oklahoma State is 70th. Having a couple lopsided games certainly can skew some of this data, but eventually, your team starts resembling what they actually are. South Alabama has a rather inexperienced interior of their offensive line. Even with an offense that likes to get rid of the ball quick, I’d expect Appalachian to send pressure up the middle to test a young offensive line. With an offense such as the Jaguars, who are only averaging 3.62 yards per rushing attempt, the Jaguars could be in plenty of long yardage scenarios on third down. That is where the Mountaineers break the soul of South Alabama. The Mountaineers can clog the running lanes with their rangy linebackers who have surrendered just 2.93 yards per carry. I’ve been back and forth on this pick all week long, and although the Jaguars might score some points, the Mountaineers might just be too much to overcome this weekend. 

The First Pick

Spotted Cats 17

Mountaineers 41

Appalachian Football vs Louisiana

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Appalachian State (7-4, 6-1 Sun Belt) vs Louisiana (5-6, 4-3 Sun Belt)

Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 2:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 64.88

Louisiana: 52.52

Home: 2.32

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 14.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -15

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 24, Louisiana 0, October 12th, 2016

On Saturday, Appalachian will play its 32nd game in the Sun Belt Conference, completing its fourth year since leaving the Southern Conference. Those were four quick years. To this point, the Mountaineers have compiled a 26-5 record in conference play, which is only matched by Arkansas State as the best record in conference play during that stretch. Appalachian has finished no lower than third in the conference standings every year. The only time Louisiana finished above the Mountaineers was in 2014, handing the Cajuns their only conference loss that season. The Mountaineers dominated that day, and have ever since in this short three game series. When the Mountaineers entered the Sun Belt, Louisiana was the top dog. They have a winning record against six current conference opponents, have a .500 record versus two opponents, and have a 7-8 record against Troy. Appalachian remains the only team the Cajuns have not defeated. The beatings have also continued to get worse each season, beginning with a nineteen point win in 2014, a 21 point victory in Boone the following season, and a 24-0 shutout by the Mountaineers a season ago. A win on Saturday would give App its second straight share of a conference title, and leave the Cajuns watching the bowl games from their couches.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have had their chances in 2017 to improve their record, but the warning signs came very early in the season. A close 51-48 win over SE Louisiana in an FCS tune up was the just the start. Three straight losses followed to up tempo Tulsa, UL-Monroe, and Texas A&M. The Monroe loss was an absolute shocker. Louisiana had won three straight and eight of nine games in the series. The Cajuns had to score thirty second half points just to hang with Monroe and tie the game at 43 before the Warhawks prevailed in OT. Louisiana surrendered 215 points in the first four games. The Cajuns then rallied for wins in three of their next four games, and kept their opponents from scoring 20 points in those three wins. But, its been ugly lately as the Cajuns have given up big numbers in their last three games; 50 to Ole Miss, 34 in a win over New Mexico State, and 34 to two-win Georgia Southern.

The Cajuns have had to use three different quarterbacks for significant stretches of the season. None of them are particularly good. Jordan Davis has played the most this season, and missed two games in there entirety due to injury. Davis has 1,281 yards, 9 TD’s and six interceptions and has been sacked ten times. Andre Nunez played decently in the four games he appeared in, take away the 47-3 whipping by Arkansas State. Nunez has not played since and has been concussed at least once this season. Freshman Levi Lewis inexplicably played in his third game last week against Georgia Southern, jeopardizing his redshirt status. Lewis was a prized recruit as a dual threat quarterback who played basketball and ran track in high school.

As the Cajuns could start a freshman at quarterback, they will definitely start a freshman running back in Trey Ragas, who is a load and a half. Just like all bigger running backs, you cannot allow them to get started. It will be a tall task for Appalachian. Ragas has one-third of the carries this season for the Cajuns, and he has toted the ball for 799 yards at a 5.9 yard per carry clip. He probably deserves more carries. He has only carried twenty or more times on one occasion, against New Mexico State, and he showed that he deserved it with a season high 132 yards and two touchdowns. Equally as dangerous is senior running back Darius Hoggins. He is a lot smaller than Ragas but provides a good change of pace. Hoggins is another candidate for more work, as he has not topped eight carries all season in a game. Equally surprising, Hoggins had a 75 yard touchdown run against Georgia Southern early on and carried just once more in the game.

This game comes down to Louisiana’s defense. They are downright atrocious. I couldn’t believe the difference when researching why they win, and why they lose. In their 6 losses, the Cajun have given up 49.6 points per game. In their wins, they have allowed 23.8 points per. That is less than half. Not sure I have ever seen such a discrepancy. Their five wins include zero teams at this point that are bowl eligible and their road wins include South Alabama, the most confusing team in the conference, and three win Idaho.

A healthy Jalin Moore is a very welcome sight. Moore might have been as healthy as he was all season last weekend. He received a season high 32 carries vs Georgia State, which topped his previous season high he had in the last game he played in at UL-Monroe. Moore has gone over 100 yards nine out ten times in his career when he received more than nineteen carries. The only exception was Miami. Four times he has reached the 200 yard mark in those same situations. Over a third of his carries have come in his last two games. He is now within striking distance of rushing for 3,000 yards in his career and only six other Mountaineers have accomplished that feat.

We all know why programs like UL-Monroe and South Alabama schedule multiple games against the SEC. They need the money from a pay game to support their programs. Louisiana choosing to play two road SEC contests does not make sense for a school with plenty of resources and facilities. Had they had a lighter schedule, they would not be fighting for bowl eligibility so late in the season. In 2016, it was Boise State and Georgia that littered the Cajun schedule and they needed wins in their final two games to go bowling. The nine win seasons are now a thing of the past, and mediocrity seems to be the goal anymore in Lafayette. So Saturday, Hudspeth and his Cajuns will hope to overcome a long hard trip to the mountains and try pull off another last game victory to throw current bowl projections in the shredder. Meanwhile, Appalachian has its eyes on a rather big prize. This game could certainly affect where the Mountaineers are heading later in December. A win on senior day coupled with another ring of the hand of a star studded graduating class is the goal. The Mountaineers likely have prepared for two different quarterbacks starting for Louisiana on Saturday. Coach Hudspeth wouldn’t tip his hand at his news conference, so the Apps will be pulling double duty in the film room. Regardless of who starts for Louisiana, they’ll have to take care of the football. Interceptions have been big in their losses, but so has their defense. The Cajuns will be facing their toughest defensive challenge of the season. The Mountaineers have improved dramatically in the last two games with the return of Devan Stringer and rank 33rd nationally. The top three defenses that Louisiana has faced this year are just inside the top sixty and they averaged just 15 points per game against those opponents. As much as the onus is on the Cajun offense to score, its reciprocal with their defense to keep their opponents off the board. They have not done that consistently enough this season and I don’t expect that balance to come together this weekend.

The First Pick

Green Peppers 16

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football @ Georgia State

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Appalachian State (6-4, 5-1 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (6-3, 5-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, November 25th, 2017 2pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Georgia State Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 25,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 62.72

Ga State: 55.16

Home: 2.31

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 5.25 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -7

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 17, Ga State 3, October 1st, 2016

Back in late August, on the opening Thursday night of the college football season, Georgia State lost their season and stadium opener to FCS Tennessee State 17-10. At that point in time, just about everyone had written off the Panthers. It seems nothing had really changed in previous seasons, but it was also the head coaching debut of one Shawn Elliott. That night has not defined the Georgia State season. It was likely exactly what they needed. They knew they had to get to work. Since, they have won every winnable game, and lost each one in which they were decided underdogs. Penn State and Troy are heavy hitters, and the Panthers were outscored 90-10 in those two games. The tilt with Appalachian was seemingly the toughest part of the schedule remaining. This season is already a success for Georgia State, getting to six wins and becoming bowl eligible, perhaps ahead of schedule. But suddenly, they have tripped into a dream scenario. They control their own destiny for a piece of the conference title and play their final two games in their home venue. Oddly, this will just be the Panthers fourth game at home this season, and are only 1-2 in the previous three games. Their tilt with Memphis was cancelled due to the fallout of Hurricane Irma. For Georgia State, a lot of things surrounding football have been new this season, and now they find themselves in another new spot; competing against a team that has had their number for the chance to play for their first conference trophy.

Georgia State did a little more than stumble into this situation. We should give them a little more credit than that. They do have a win in Monroe that App could not match. Otherwise, both App and State share wins over all other common opponents in Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina and Texas State. Neither of those schools have had good seasons to say the least, with Coastal and Southern picking up their first conference wins last weekend. The Panthers have just one comfortable conference win, beating Monroe by ten points, as the remaining games were decided by just one possession. The same can be said for App this season. Way too many close games, not enough domination, and a whole of newness in some critical places.

When glancing at Georgia State, not a lot jumps off the paper. They are an above average passing offense, below average on the ground, and their defense plays good, and not great or spectacular. Their punting is bad, and they lose just about all of their fumbles. They have missed over half of the field goals they have attempted and have a hard time converting red zone chances for touchdowns. Yet, you do not become 6-3 by accident. Sure, there is some bad football in the Sun Belt this season, and neither Georgia State or Appalachian has been immune to the lackluster play.

Georgia State does have a couple tells when it comes to them playing well. This statistic does not mean everything, but it does mean something. Sophomore wide receiver Penny Hart is an all-Sun Belt caliber receiver, and he is a big reason why the Panthers are in the position they are in. However, they need him to be on, and involved from the start. The Panthers are 6-0 when Hart hits at least 85 yards receiving and averages over ten yards per catch. Conversely, Georgia State is 0-3 when Hart has fewer than 56 yards in a game and averages less than ten yards per reception. Containing Hart is a big key for Appalachian. The Mountaineers have contained Hart so far in his career, holding him to a 3/13 line last year, and 5/47 line in 2015. Hart played in just a few games in 2016 and redshirted after an injury.

Panther signal caller Connor Manning has had an improved season over 2016, where he threw thirteen interceptions to just sixteen touchdown passes. His accuracy has improved by nearly ten percentage points from one season to the next, which has helped his yards per attempt average by nearly a whole yard. Despite only throwing six interceptions this season, four of those came in the losses to Troy and Penn State. The Panthers have won every game in which Manning has more touchdown passes than interceptions, and threw just one TD pass combined in the three losses. Last season Manning threw a touchdown pass in every game except one, against Appalachian State, where he was picked off four times.

The win over Georgia Southern feels like decades ago, although it was nice to get some time off for team that severely needs to heal some wounds. The game against the Eagles was not remarkable by any stretch. It was pretty basic, and workmanlike. The Apps got the job done, sending Georgia Southern back down the mountain for the fifth time in a row with a loss. The game was not really decided until the fourth quarter, but the Eagles never really threatened, managing just a pair of field goals. Marcus Williams Jr. rumbled for 130 yards on twenty-eight carries. The freshman is up to 395 yards on the season, with all but 52 of those yards coming in the last four weeks.

What we have is two teams that are even in the standings, but have had two completely different seasons. They have both had some close games, but the expectation of each program and their respective win-loss records could not be further apart. Georgia State is in the midst of their first season finishing with a winning record. They are not there yet, and they didn’t quite get there in 2015 either. For Appalachian, we all know that 6-4 is below the expectations set for this season, but once again, there is still plenty to play for. We have not seen the Mountaineers on the field since November 9th, two days prior to when South Alabama did their part in beating Arkansas State and opening the door for others to claim a share of a conference title. This is different than in 2016, when an Arkansas State loss opened the door for the Mountaineers before their game at New Mexico State. This time around, the Mountaineers have had time to let that scenario simmer. Georgia State was also on bye last weekend, but this team has never been there. That coaching staff and that team have never prepared for a game that has so much up for grabs. How will they handle that moment is yet to be seen. What we do have for Appalachian is a team that has been there before. It has played in big games, with an occasional loss, but mostly wins over the last two-plus seasons. That experience is invaluable. What App cannot do is play from behind like they have in every road game this season. A quick start is a must, and possession for both teams is critical. Georgia State will not wow you with their running game, but they know it is necessary to attempt to run. The threat must be there, or else the App defense will begin teeing off. A turnover in the second half will turn the tide in this game, and I think its the App defense that is due for a score.

The First Pick

Still Southern’s Daddy 17

Mountaineers 28

Appalachian Football vs Coastal Carolina

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Appalachian State (4-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) vs Coastal Carolina (1-5, 0-3 Sun Belt)
Saturday, October 21st, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 30,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.26

Coastal Carolina: 44.45

Home: 2.07

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 25 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -24

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 55, Coastal Carolina 14, September 29th, 2012
   

          I’m still not quite sure what happened last Saturday. Wait a minute, thats exactly how we started this thing off last week. But the statement still applies to this week. Let’s run with it. Overcoming a deficit in a football game is one thing. Overcoming a twenty point deficit is another. Coming from behind on the road to win is really difficult. Doing all those things, all while having scored zero points in the first half is pretty miraculous. The second half could not have started any worse. An Idaho interception on a tipped pass could have spelled doom for the Mountaineers chances. But the Apps never wavered. In true Mountaineer fashion, they hunkered down and got to work. The rest is history. One long drive led to another. Fourth downs were converted time and time again. The defense, which didnt quit as the half began, decided to bring pain on the Idaho offense. Quarterbacks were sacked, and balls were fumbled, almost mysteriously. The result was another heart stopping victory, the third in as many games in Sun Belt play. An unblemished record in conference play may have been expected by some at this point, but the path was not one anyone could have predicted. The ride has been fun, and we’re only halfway home. 

           We would have never guessed a decade ago that Coastal Carolina would join a conference with Appalachian. It was more likely that conference would have still been in the FCS. But here are the Chanticleers, in their first full year in FBS football. The growing pains have been plenty for Coastal. Their season in 2017, started similarly to how Appalachian started their FBS journey in 2014. Coastal sits at 1-5 , and that lone win is over a very bad Massachusetts team that has yet to win a game. They have been in several games, and have been blown out just twice, last weekend at Arkansas State, and earlier in the season to Western Illinois. They have hung around with UL-Monroe, who is a team you have to outscore this season and also with Georgia State. In both games, they never quit, even after being down multiple scores, and kept it within one score at the end.         

          Coastal is in the middle of arguably is toughest stretch of the season. The Arkansas State-App State double on the road is a daunting task. Prior to the season, Coastal had an outside chance of finishing in the middle of the Sun Belt, but those plans were sidetracked when head coach Joe Moglia had to take a medical leave, and Jamey Chadwell from Charleston Southern, was thrust to into the head coach role. Chadwell was the coach as CSU when they defeated the Mountaineers in 2013 during their final year in the FCS. That was Scott Satterfield’s first year as a head coach as well. 

          The offense that Chadwell ran in 2013 is still with him and his Chanticleers. They love formations with two backs in the backfield, and rarely run a play without a fake, some misdirection or an option run. It’s the true definition of the run-pass option attack. Defenses must be disciplined in their scheme and keep their eyes on their own assignments. The idea is similar to triple option football, but with a more traditional passing game mixed in. It leads to a very balanced offense for the Chanticleers. They do run a little bit more than they pass. Their individual numbers don’t look great across the board, but they do an admirable job with what they have. The phrase, “The whole is greater than the sum of their parts” fits this team perfectly. 

          Appalachian was very far from from perfect on Saturday. Understatement of the year, I know. The fact is they were killed with poor field position in the first half, and as we learned in the days after the game, Idaho had been prepping to beat the Mountaineers in every single practice since the end of last season. It’s not easy being the top dog . Everyone is trying to beat you, especially the likes of Idaho and New Mexico State, who’ll likely never ever get that chance again. The individual performances were not fantastic against Idaho, but luckily Ike Lewis saved the day. His one headed catch of a Taylor “Not Tyler” Lamb pass was beautifully secured and Lewis did the rest. That’s always been the issue with Ike, makes the routine plays look difficult, and the tough plays look easy. But, when he gets a hold of it, he can be electric. He has suddenly become App’s lone home run play guy, as Thomas Hennigan and Malik Williams’ yards per catch have dipped under ten this past weekend. 

          As if App was not already dealing with enough injuries on offense, they were dealt a huge blow with news that broke late Wednesday. Terrence Upshaw suffered an injury that will require surgery, and will end his season and his career at Appalachian. At times, Upshaw appeared to be the better runner in certain situations and his loss will certainly be felt. How his role is filled will be interesting to discover on Saturday. Back to the game at hand. It’s painfully obvious, App needs to find a way to start the game better. At this point, it has not hurt the Mountaineers yet, but its inevitable that it will at some point. The Mountaineers have been a much stronger second half team, mostly out of necessity. The game that was most interesting to me that was a good comparison as to how this game will be decided was when Coastal hosted Georgia State. The Panthers opened the game with a kickoff return touchdown, and cruised to a 21-7 first half lead. However, the Chants clawed back before falling 27-21. Georgia State has a decent defense, but their offense can be lacking at times. Sound familiar? A lot of folks think that Coastal might be one of the worst teams in the FBS. But at the same time, they have not looked terrible all the time. I wouldnt be surprised by any result this weekend, and I’ll side with what is most likely to occur. Apps win, but covering that big spread will be tough. 

The First Pick

Beach Chickens 20

Mountaineers 37

Appalachian Football @ Idaho

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Appalachian State (3-2, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Idaho (2-3, 1-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 14th, 2017 5pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kibbie Dome

Surface: RealGrass Pro

Capacity: 16,000

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 68.09

Idaho: 54.68

Home: 1.97

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -13

Series: App State leads 3-0

Last meeting: App State 37, Idaho 19, October 22nd, 2016

        I’m still not quite sure what happened last Saturday. A game that was really sputtering along for three quarters suddenly became a shootout that was going to come down to one play made or not made by either side. Fortunately, Eric Boggs lays out to trip up a New Mexico State receiver on fourth down, a review finally favors the Mountaineers, and the ball changes hands and Jalin Moore ices it. There were several times in that fourth quarter that many fans surely had the same feeling in their gut that I did. “Uh, if we aren’t careful, we’re gonna lose this one.” Both teams seemed to be playing for the fourth quarter. New Mexico State went from a quick strike offense, to a ball controlling unit in hopes to wear out the App defense. The Mountaineer offense stubbornly kept forcing the ball to the running backs, in hopes that the big one would finally hit. Eventually they did, as Jalin Moore’s final six carries went for 129 yards, nearly half of his total. Next up is another team exiting the Sun Belt looking for their shot at the defending champ. Even worse, App has beaten these guys three times already, and perhaps, like New Mexico State, we’ll never play these guys again. This is Idaho’s last stand in big boy football and they’ll be looking to sack one last big time opponent before their days are numbered in the Sun Belt. 

           Idaho’s season in 2016 could not have been scripted any better, outside of the inevitable sendoff from the Sun Belt, the Vandals finished the regular season at 8-4 and went on to win the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl over Colorado State 61-50 in a non-overtime game. Things haven’t been as smooth in 2017, as the Vandals beat Sacramento State 28-6, but then fell to UNLV, who lost to Howard, and Western Michigan. After a double-overtime win over now 1-4 South Alabama, Idaho got two weeks to prepare for a Louisiana team that was giving up the most points in the FBS. Idaho managed just a touchdown and three field goals and fell to the Cajuns, a team they had beaten a year ago. Idaho is now floundering with a 2-3 record, and the path to six wins looks daunting. The Vandals still have to play App, and have road games at Mizzou, Troy and New Mexico State.

         Matt Linehan has been the Idaho starting quarterback essentially since he stepped on campus. He’s been above average overall, but has not had the surrounding talent he deserves. This season is no different. Linehan has basically one receiver that over half his attempts go to and that’s Jacob Sannon. Linehan is up to 1075 passing yards on the season, which is well off pace for his previous three seasons. He’s averaging 215 yards a game in 2017, and his next lowest total was his freshman season, when he averaged 230 yards per game. His high water mark was when he threw for 273 yards in the win over South Alabama. He’ll have a shot to get to 10,000 career passing yards this weekend. In three games against the Mountaineers, Linehan has completed 61% of his passes for 745 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. 

          Back to Jacob Sannon, his 33 catches leads the team by a good bit. His next closest competition is Alfonso Onunwor who has 17 catches. Sannon is a senior who is finally getting his chance to shine. Eventually, his final season in Moscow will be his most productive, as he has already achieved career marks in yards and receptions. Aaron Duckworth has also been around awhile for the Vandals. Also a senior, Duckworth is averaging six yards per carry on the ground and leads the team with 439 rushing yards. He’ll have an outside chance at rushing for 1,000 yards this year. 

          Hey, look, that Mountaineer running attack got its groove back a bit. The offensive line paved the way for 350 yards on the ground on just thirty-eight attempts. What it came down to was continuing to work on big plays. Of those thirty-eight attempts, nearly a third of them, thirteen to be exact, went for 10 yards or more. Moore had seven such runs, Taylor Lamb three, and Terrance Upshaw three. Seven of Moore’s carries went for ten or more yards and accounted for 212 of his 241 yard total. It might not have been pretty the entire game, but when the stars aligned, they did in a big way. I’d expect to see more of the same this weekend against the 91st ranked run defense in football. 

          Nobody could have said they had seen an App State football team successfully secure six interceptions in one game prior to last weekend. Unfortunately, the Apps needed every last one of those interceptions to win the game. That doesn’t happen often. The so-called “double hat trick” or “Six-Pick” game comes at a perfect time. Idaho, which likes to the throw the ball more than most in the Sun Belt, is reminded this week on film what can happen when you mess with the Legion of Boone. Last year, Clifton Duck snagged a pair of interceptions off of Linehan. Josh Thomas corralled the other. And now enter Tae Hayes, who was one acrobatic play away from an unheard of four interceptions last Saturday. Combine that with a Idaho passing that game looks a little off at the moment. Certainly they could get it together this weekend, but it doesn’t look promising. Idaho has struggled to score this season like they did in 2016, where they hit the 30 point mark on seven occasions. This season the Vandals have scored 16 points twice, 28 points twice, and needed nine overtime points in Mobile to get to 29 points in that win. In this series, App has won by margins of 17, 18 and 27 points. If anything, App has proven in it’s two Sun Belt wins that a lot can change in a years time, and that everything is earned on the football field. But, Idaho has not shown much of doing anything exceptionally well this season. They are a true middle of the road team in 2017, and I think Appalachian has more than enough firepower on both sides of the ball to win this one. 

The First Pick

Starches 18

Mountaineers 33

Appalachian Football vs New Mexico State

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Appalachian State (2-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) vs New Mexico State (2-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)

Saturday, October 7th, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.40

New Mexico State: 58.11

Home: 1.94

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -10.5

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 37, New Mexico State 7, November 26th, 2016

          The last two weeks, have felt like years. Bye weeks can be like that, forget what happened in the previous game. Forget that the last opponent was a long lost rival, a game that had been eagerly anticipated, and ended with an unfortunate thud. I’ll never look at the number 19 the same ever again. The 19th amendment of the US Constitution gave women the right to vote, but I’ll be thinking about Wake Forest. Adele’s debut album was titled “19”, but I’ll be thinking about untimely penalties against Wake Forest. The atomic number of Potassium is 19, which has the oddest symbol of the periodic table; the letter “K”. In that football game we all love, the letter K stands for kicker, and of course the kicks we didn’t convert against Wake Forest. So the next time you eat a banana, you’ll think about Wake Forest. Try and forget that for the time being, and lets turn our focus to an improved New Mexico State team that looks to make a statement on their way out of the Sun Belt. Their sites are set on a bowl game, and they have an offense that can make that happen, especially in a down year for the Sun Belt. It’s rare that Appalachian loses a Homecoming game, but the Aggies are just the kind of team that can make it interesting. 

          Even though New Mexico State sits below .500 on the season, their losses are extremely respectable. Arizona State & Troy were lucky enough to get by in one possession games, and Arkansas got up early and held serve for the remainder of the game last weekend. The wins the Aggies have under their belt are against New Mexico and UTEP. Two teams that mean so much from a rivalry perspective, that wins over those schools were included in Doug Martin’s new contract that didn’t increase his salary but was very incentive laden. A victory over either school gives Martin a $5,000 bonus. He’ll also receive an additional $20,000 bonus for six wins or a bowl invite. 

          New Mexico State was trending up last year. Remember, the Mountaineers and Aggies teed it up in one of the final games of the 2016 season. New Mexico State beat Louisiana last year, and should have beaten Georgia Southern. They played South Alabama within a touchdown on the road in their final game. This improvement was in the works last season. Now they had their blowout games, but that hasn’t been the case this year. They lost to Arkansas by 18 points. In 2016, they had six such losses of 18 points or more.  

          The Aggies employ a typical three headed monster on offense, a tall pocket passer behind center, a very experienced running back and big target to throw to down the field. Tyler Rogers missed the App game last year due to a injury in practice the week of the game. Rogers is in the top ten in the country in several passing categories. Not in the Sun Belt, in the country. This is a team that likes to toss the ball around the yard. Rogers trails only UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph in passing yards. He’s fifth nationwide with 15 touchdown passes. His favorite target, Jaleel Scott has 543 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Scott can catch the ball all over the field and has sure hands. His lanky frame doesn’t have blazing speed, but his wide catch radius makes it easy on Rogers to find him. Larry Rose III ranks in the top ten for active FBS running backs in his career. Despite averaging just over four yards a carry, Rose III also an impact with his receiving skills, as he has snagged twenty-two passes this season. As Rose III goes, so do the Aggies. He has 38 carries for 243 yards in two Aggie wins, and just 33 carries for 154 yards in their losses.  

        Appalachian took the lead away from Wake Forest on three different occasions the last time out. They had nine more first downs, nearly two hundred more yards passing, and still outpossesed the Deacons by nearly eleven and a half minutes. It was a game that featured fewer than forty points, but only four punts, and zero turnovers. Taylor Lamb had a big day, with 372 passing yards, spread out among eight different receivers, all catching at least two passes. The Mountaineer running game is still a work in progress, but Terrance Upshaw worked hard for 86 yards whole Jalin Moore struggled and was clearly not 100% healthy. 

          A lot of the talk leading up this game has centered around the New Mexico State offense, and how much better they are. A good offense can help a defense improve just by default really. More time to rest and adjust, and you can pay defense a lot looser with the lead. While Appalachian was resting last weekend, preparing for the Aggies, the New Mexico State defense spent 41 minutes on the field defending the Razorbacks. Arkansas churned out a balanced 494 yards of total offense. At halftime of that game, Coach Doug Martin was interviewed, and mentioned that he was surprised how much Arkansas threw the ball. Immediately, all I could think about was him perhaps saying the exact same thing the following week. Out of necessity, the Mountaineers have been putting the ball up in the air more often. Now, that New Mexico State defense doesn’t really do anything exceptionally well. They are ranked in the mid-80’s in total defense, which is below average, and that team has a lot of travel miles on them between games. They have forced a few turnovers, but most of those came in their blowout of UTEP where they snatched five interceptions. UTEP started 0-5 this season and their coach just resigned. To quickly summarize, that is where this game is going to be won and lost. I have no doubt that New Mexico State might get a bunch of yards, but they have to be able to finish. App State has one of the best red-zone defenses in the country, allowing just five touchdowns in twelve attempts on the young season. The Aggies will have some drives, but App has also done well in forcing three and outs all season. The Apps must cut off those drives quickly and keep the New Mexico State offense off the field. 

The First Pick

Toy Guns 21

Mountaineers 34

Appalachian Football vs Wake Forest

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Appalachian State (2-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) vs Wake Forest (3-0, 1-0 ACC)

Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 3:30pm est

TV/Video: ESPN3

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Kidd Brewer Stadium

Surface: Fieldturf

Capacity: 23,150

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 67.25

Wake Forest: 76.81

Home: 2.41

Wake Forest is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: Wake -4

Series: Wake Forest leads 14-7-1

Last meeting: Wake Forest 20, App State 10, September 8th, 2001

Ya’ll, it has been a long time coming for this one. Think about all the events and memories that have been made in your life since the last time Appalachian and Wake Forest met on the gridiron. If you had a child born in 2001, they are getting their drivers license this year. Dale Earnhardt’s death was still fresh on many Carolinian minds and the World Trade Center was still standing. A lot has changed, but the hunger for these two schools to play football hasn’t diminished. Eighty-eight miles of US 421, partially named by famous stock car drivers on some stretches, is all that separates these two schools. Unfortunately, college football started becoming less about the game on the field and more about padding the back pockets of those who keep watch over athletics. Appalachian and Wake could have easily scheduled a win, or gone on the road to get a paycheck and keep the budgets in the black. Thankfully, these two schools have remembered what is important about one of the experiences of college football. Packed stadiums, plenty of atmosphere and a competitive spirit inside and outside the lines. Conference footprints have expanded so that the parishioners at service on Sunday do not recognize the schools opponents. Its hard to explain how much this just feels right. Appalachian and Wake Forest belong in the same breath. Even with scholarship discrepancies in the past, these two schools were neck and neck on the field more than enough times. Neither side wants to lose and both expecting a win. I’m not sure college football gets any better than that. 

In 2001, the Deacons went 6-5, but did not get a bowl invitation. Since then they have had five winning seasons, and played in six bowl games. The 2011 was the oddball, finishing 6-7 after a bowl loss to Mississippi State. Most notably, the Deacons were ACC champions and played in the Orange Bowl in 2007, but fell to the eventual conference mate Louisville. Last season was the first winning season for Wake since 2008, getting a win in the Military Bowl and finishing 7-6. As has been the luck for Appalachian’s out of conference opponents, Wake has jumped out of the gates hot with three wins in rather dominating fashion to start the 2017 campaign. 

In those three games, Wake has benefited from a stronger than usual defense, and an offense that has put a lot of points on the board. Wake has sixteen touchdowns and they have all been scored by the offense except one, a thirty yard interception return vs. Utah State. The Deacons have been balanced, with seven rushing touchdowns, and eight passing touchdowns. Senior quarterback John Wolford has contributed nine of those scores, three with his legs and six with his arm. Wolford has been surprising, but more importantly he has played smart, not throwing an interception. In fact, the Deacons have just one turnover on the season, an interception thrown by their third string quarterback. 

Greg Dortch is one guy the Moutaineers must know where he is on the field at all times. Dortch has four touchdowns, leads the team in receptions and yards, and also returns kickoffs and punts. He has the abilty to burn you with his speed as he did vs Utah State on a catch and run or go up and make an acrobatic play in the end zone and get a foot down for a score, like he did at Boston College. The Demon Deacons have this kid for three more seasons, so this won’t be the last time Appalachian has to worry about him, as he’ll be a senior when the Mountaineers return to Winston-Salem in the 2020 season. 

Wake Forest takes a committee/all hands on deck approach to their running game. Four players have at least 26 carries on the season, including Wolford. Cade Carney and Matt Colburn will not burn you, but they move the pile and are tough to tackle. Arkeem Byrd fits the bill as a more traditional back at 6-1, 190 pounds. Byrd is also a redshirt freshman and will be around for awhile. Appalachian’s coaches will be familiar with him as they recruited and offered Byrd early in the 2015 recruiting process. 

We’ve got to the point where we have to mention last week’s game. The Apps played about thirty minutes on Saturday in San Marcos, but gutted out a conference win. It was one on the lowest offensive outputs in terms of yardage in a win in a very long time. What is worse, is that several players felt the effects of the physical game well into the early week. Those day-to-day injuries typically heal enough once Saturday comes around, but it is something to keep an eye on. If anyone had a good performance, it was Terrance Upshaw. Most of his work came in the fourth quarter, and he scored the go-ahead touchdown. Upshaw didn’t lose a yard on any of his fourteen carries, which went for sixty yards and a touchdown. Upshaw now leads the team with 163 yards on the season. Taylor Lamb follows with 117 yards and Jalin Moore has 109 yards. 

Another solid performance was turned in by the App State defense. They gave up one score over the top, but kept Texas State in check for the remainder of the game. They gave up a few yards, but didn’t allow a red zone touchdown. Anthony Flory was named the conference defensive player of the week with his nine tackles and two sacks. The Mountaineers repeatedly assualted Damian Williams, but that sucker just kept getting up. 

Last week, I was all types of wrong in the closing paragraph. It could not have been worse. The bigggest miss in a long time. Something about last week was not right. Not sure what it was, but found myself pacing in the hours before kickoff. The nerves were obviously warranted. A lot of comparisons have been made to Miami from a year ago, leading into this game with Wake Forest. I cant buy them. This week will be different because it has to be. We have been warned. We have been through this “host a P5 program” at Kidd Brewer before. The Mountaineers probably played the worst game of the season last weekend. It has to get better and maybe it was a perfect time for a wake up call. I’m confident in saying that Kidd Brewer will be a much different place to play for Wake than it was when they visited Chestnut Hill in Massachusetts. The Deacons will likely be playing their best opponent of the young season as well. No offense to Presbyterian, Boston College, and Utah State. They arent exactly football hotbeds. They dont have the athletes that App has. Besides Wake limiting the opposing quarterbacks they have played, those signal callers they have faced have been pretty bad against everyone. Presbyterian QB Ben Cheek completed 2/9 passes for 41 yards vs. the Deacs. This season Cheek has still completed just 33% of his throws for 204 yards in three games, and he is their starter. Same story for Boston College. They played two guys behind center against Wake. They were a combined 18/41 for just 163 yards, which is under four yards per attempt. On the season, the primary BC starter is under 5 yards per attempt. That’s simply not good. Utah State: same stuff, different day. Their two QB’s combined for a 15/37 day last weekend, or a 40% completion rate. Their yards per attempt was higher than BC, right around 6 yards per, but that was buoyed by a 77 yard passing touchdown. Take that out, and guess what, exactly four yards per attempt. I don’t think Wake has played a competent QB yet and I think App’s defense has too much pride and talent to roll over and let anyone drop forty points on them like Wake has done to their opponents this season. It’s going to be a hard fought game, but in the end, this Saturday is for Appalachian. 

The First Pick

Top Hats 22

Mountaineers 27

Appalachian Football @ Texas State

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Appalachian State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-1, 0-0 SBC)

Saturday, September 16th, 2017 7pm est
TV/Video: ESPN3
Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN
Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Surface: Fieldturf Duraspine Pro
Capacity: 30,000
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 68.77
Texas State: 46.29
Home: 2.41
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 20 points (rounded)
Sportsbook: App State -23
Series: App State leads 2-0
Last meeting: App State 35, Texas State 10, November 5th, 2016
         
         College football’s preseason is over and its time to for the real games to start. The games that determine a conference champion and defines where your team plays in the postseason if they deserve it. For the first time in Appalachian’s history, they will play a football game in the state of Texas. It was not long ago, the Mountaineers had not won a game east of the Mississippi River, but it’s inclusion in the Sun Belt has allowed for wins in Idaho, New Mexico and Louisiana. Hopefully that trend continues for the Mountaineers in conference play. Texas State is on an upswing, but its been a slow process for Appalachian alum Everett Withers. They’ve installed an offense and defense that resembles what the Mountaineers are currently running. The talent is not completely there, but similarly to what Appalachian faced a few years ago, they are playing younger players who just lack experience. Eventually they’ll catch up, but it will take a lot of work to learn how to win, especially for a program whose last winning season was in 2014. That season did not result in bowl berth for the Bobcats, and the bottom fell out in the last two seasons, winning only five games in that span. Appalachian looks to stay the course and keep piling up wins in Sun Belt play as the season wears on. Before 2017 concludes, the Bobcats will likely trip someone up, just not this weekend. 

         Texas State started off the season with a win over Houston Baptist, an FCS school in the Southland Conference, which includes the likes of McNeese State, Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas. That game was a little closer than it should have been, as the Bobcats edged out the Huskies by nine points. Houston Baptist had a Sagarin rating in the twenties, and Texas State should have won more comfortably. Colorado disposed of Texas State with ease last weekend. The Buffaloes were 36 points favorites, but failed to cover in a 37-3 final. Texas State only trailed 14-0 at halftime before Colorado got serious and put them away with seventeen third quarter points. 

         In both games, Texas State managed to eclipse the 150 yard rushing mark. They ran the ball 41 times vs Houston Baptist and 47 times versus Colorado. Last year, the Bobcats couldn’t run the ball if they wanted to. App held them to 14 rushing yards on 28 carries. This sudden improvement is noticeable. Where Texas State continues to struggle is passing the ball. With only 262 yards in the air in two games, to go along with two interceptions thrown and zero touchdown passses, the Bobcats are still a work in progress on the offensive side of the ball. 

            Damian Williams is one of the Bobcat quaterbacks, transferring in from Mississippi State as a graduate. He appeared in six games in both 2013 and 2014, redshirted in 2015, and played in five contests in 2016. Williams is dual-threat quarterback who is fourth on the team with 47 rushing yards and is the only quarterback to throw in both contests this season. Freshman Willie Jones III, has also played in both contests, but stuck to running the ball vs Houston Baptist. Jones completed both his passes vs Colorado, but was also sacked twice. 

           The Bobcat running backs are a mixed bag. A quick look shows three backs are getting the majority of the carries. Anthony Taylor has 85 yards on sixteen carries, with a long of 55. Take out that long run, and you have fifteen carries for thirty yards, or two yards a carry. It’s the same story for Anthony Smith, 82 yards on 12 carries, with a long of 48. Take out the max, and you have eleven carries for 34 yards, which equates to just over three per carry. Robert Brown Jr does it a little differently, with the most carries among running backs with 22 for 73 yards. His ten yard long does not affect his average of 3.3 yards per tote.                            

            Taylor Lamb nearly had a perfect game in the air (12/15 327 yards, 5 TD’s). Sometimes you don’t complete 80% of your passes in practice. Just to put this performance in perspective, Lamb threw a touchdown pass for every three attempts he dropped back, and every 2.4 attempts he completed a pass. The five touchdown passes were a career high, eclipsing games versus Texas State (oh!) in 2016, Old Dominion and Arkansas State in 2015 in which he threw for four touchdowns in each game. It was only his fourth 300-yard passing game of his career, but we know he is as equally dangerous on the ground. However, Lamb was quiet on the ground, likely by design, with only 9 yards vs Savannah State. Lamb had averaged 71 yards per game on the ground over the last seven games. Last week also gave Lamb 18 straight games with at least 100 yards passing. The game propelled Lamb over 7500 yards passing in his Appalachian career.

         The Mountaineer defense was incredibly impressive. Savannah State managed just 114 total yards and only converted one of its thirteen third down attempts. The Tigers ran fifty-one plays and gained roughly 2.2 yards per play, while earning just six first downs. Twenty-nine Mountaineers assisted on a tackle over the course of the game and three sacks were recorded by four relatively unknown Mountaineers. Caleb Spurlin and Demetrius Taylor each had one, while Cameron Pack & Josh Houser combined for another.

        Moving the ball on a stout Mountaineer defense will be the biggest challenge for Texas State on Saturday. The commitment to the run for Texas State is admirable, but faces a hungry front seven from Appalachian. Outside of a couple long runs given up at Georgia, the Mountaineers have been extremely steady in the early going. The Apps have held its first two opponents to a combined 3.9 yards per rush, and are likely better than that this weekend. Getting Texas State in a long yardage situation on third down seems like a good strategy for a team that struggles to throw downfield and has converted just six of its twenty-nine third downs on the young season. Coach Withers mentioned earlier this week that he wants to makes teams one dimensional as a defefensive strategy, so their focus will be on trying to stop the Mountaineer running game, and forcing Taylor Lamb to throw the ball. If I were coach, I would be careful trying to sneak up a safety in run support. Lamb showed last week what happens when you get overzealous and give him an open throwing lane or a free running tight end. Lamb finished and did so in quick order. Just when you expect both tight ends to stay in and block, one of them releases and the coverage doesn’t have time to rotate. The wishing well at the San Marcos Outlets might be full of Coach Withers maroon pennies this week if he thinks he can slow down a team that ripped his group for 303 ground yards and four passing touchdowns a season ago. 

           

The First Pick

Kitties 14

Mountaineers 35