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Appalachian Football vs North Texas (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

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Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs North Texas (4-5, 3-4 CUSA)

Monday, December 21st, 2020 2:30pm EST

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: 97.3 FM North Wilkesboro, 600 AM Winston-Salem, 1270 AM Charlotte, 1450 AM Hendersonville, Sirius XM 80, TuneIn App

Brooks Stadium

Capacity: 20,000

Surface: Shaw Sports PowerBlade

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 73.19

North Texas: 54.14

Home: n/a

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 19.05 points

Line: App State -19.0

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting: n/a

It has taken a little longer than usual, but we have made it to the end of another college football season. This season was long haul for a lot of people involved. Many were responsible for making sure we could be entertained with this game in the safest way possible. In as much as we all want a break from all the stress, there are others who do not want it to end for plenty of reasons. We get to this point of the season annually. The mixed of emotions of the season being over for fans, but careers over for good, for a lot of great players. We are all fortunate that Zac Thomas, Thomas Hennigan, and Malik Williams’ last game was in 2020, and not last year. It’s likely, for one last time we get to cheer for some players who first made memories in Happy Valley, and then New Orleans twice with a stop in Chapel Hill in between. Its surreal that this journey ends just miles from the Grand Strand, where many were heartbroken just weeks ago. For one last time, give your all in 2020, and hope we do not have to do it like this, ever again.

For the third straight season, the Mountaineers are matched up against an opponent from Conference USA in their bowl game. Middle Tennessee and Alabama-Birmingham were dismissed in New Orleans and now comes North Texas. This will be App State’s third Conference USA opponent in 2020, all with green as their primary color. North Texas lost to UNC-Charlotte by a score of 49-21, and did not play Marshall. Now, App played Charlotte a long time ago. Comparing those games are impossible. Some players that played in those games in September, are not playing now. But that game, in a nutshell can be one that describes the North Texas season. They lost by four scores. In their other four losses, the Mean Green lost by ten points or more in each game. Twice they lost by thirty points. The losses gut ugly fast. The wins, became less impressive as the season wore on. Four wins total, with one over relative FCS newcomer Houston Baptist. The remaining three wins were over Middle Tennessee, Rice and UTEP, who combined for an 8-14 record.

Although quality wins are lacking for the Mean Green, their offense does not lack for firepower. A lot of that offense was due to Jaelon Darden, who decided to not play in the bowl game in order to prepare for the NFL draft. Darden was impressive in nine games, catching 74 passes for 1,190 yard and 19 touchdowns. He will be missed by North Texas. The next best receiver had 25 catches for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s a major drop off. Still, this offense averaged 515 yards per game, which was seventh nationally. The Mean Green passed for 284 yards per game, which was 22nd in the country, and 230 yards a game on the ground, which is 13th across the land. Darden may have been a large piece of that, but he was not everything. But the problem for North Texas is a very bad defense. How bad? How about 126th out of 127 teams bad. UL-Monroe went 0-10 this year, and still have gave up 45 fewer yards per game than did North Texas.

For most of the season, North Texas used has used two quarterbacks and they could not be more different. Austin Aune has played in eight games and started three. Aune is a redshirt sophomore, but was born in 1993. He was a second round draft pick by the New York Yankees out of high school. He enrolled at North Texas in 2018 and sat out after transferring from Arkansas. Aune had a career high five touchdown passes in the most recent win over UTEP. Jason Bean has played in seven games, starting in six of them. He’s also a redshirt sophomore, but can not rent a car like his teammate. The simple comparison is that Aune is the passing quarterback and Bean is the runner. However, both share similar statistics as far as touchdown-interception ratio and completion percentage. The ball comes off of Aune’s arm effortlessly, as one would expect from a former minor league outfielder. Bean is a former high school track star and has piled up 336 yards rushing and 7.8 yards per carry on the season.

For much of last week, it looked like App State might fall again to their bitter hated rival, but the Mountaineer defense stood tall late and gave Nate Noel and Jalen Virgil the opportunity to make plays. It was a satisfying, chippy win, regardless of how it unfolded. Zac Thomas bounced back from a pick-six to throw touchdown passes to Virgil and Thomas Hennigan. App State scored twenty-seven second half points and rallied from 14-0 deficit. Winning is hard enough, and its more difficult to win in Statesboro. It may have acted as a springboard into the bowl game, where the Mountaineers landed a geographically friendly bowl location, even if the start time is undesirable. Still, the Mountaineers might have one of the better crowds it will have all season rooting them on. Some streaks have been broken this season, but one that remains is an unblemished mark in bowl games. Finishing the season with a win, and more hardware, is the goal this week.

Just like how last weekend was odd in that App State and Georgia Southern were playing on a Saturday, this will be the first time in six appearances that App State will play its bowl game on a non-Saturday. Not just any day either, a Monday afternoon. Luckily, the date only has an effect on the fans, and typically not the players and coaches. However this is an inaugural bowl game, in a year unlike any other, so why not Monday afternoon football? Unfortunately, the last time the Mountaineers played in this stadium, they lost the chance to achieve one of their goals. Yet, an opportunity to continue an unprecedented streak still exists. North Texas will be playing in their eleventh NCAA-sanctioned bowl game in program history. They have just managed two wins. This will be the fourth time that Seth Littrell is taking the Mean Green to a bowl game and they have yet to win one yet. Their last two losses were exceptionally lopsided, losing to Troy 50-30, and by thirty-nine points to Utah State last year. A trend has seemed to develop. North Texas can score some points sometimes, and occasionally, when they do not score, they get beat pretty bad. Seems simple enough. App State is by far the best defense that North Texas will have played this season. Rice played the Mean Green close, but eventually fell 27-17 after blowing a 10-0 lead on the road. Rice might be the next best defense that North Texas played, and that is asking a lot. Never thought 2020 would bring Rice football to this corner of the internet. North Texas is going to have to do better than their season average of allowing 4.5 touchdowns per game in order to give themselves a chance to win. App State has scored 31 points or more in every bowl game in their history, while allowing just 11.33 points per game in their last three bowls. It’s a mismatch on paper, and that should carry over to the scoreboard on Monday afternoon.

The First Pick

Green with Envy 20

Mountaineers 41

Appalachian Football vs Middle Tennessee (New Orleans Bowl)

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Appalachian State (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-5, 7-1 C-USA)

Saturday, December 15th, 2018 9:00pm est

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlote WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte WAVO 1150 AM; Raleigh/Durham Buzz Sports Radio 96.5 FM, 99.3 FM, The Ticket 620 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM

Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Capacity: 76,468

Surface: Act Global UBU Speed S5-M Synthetic Turf

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 75.67

Middle Tennessee: 65.73

Home: n/a

App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: App State -7

Series: Middle Tennessee leads 2-1

Last meeting: Middle Tennessee 35, Appalachian 10, November 28, 1992, Murfreesboro, TN

WxCrum Forecast: n/a

There is no reason to pretend like we have all been here before. Change is inevitable. What makes you a man is how you react to it. Due to the unchartered territory of success that App State football has experienced for the last several years, it steered them into other unknown waters. No matter what happens over the course of the next couple days, the Mountaineers will be led by a interim coach on Saturday, one who could very well be coaching his last game in the black and gold. A lot of things remain up in the air, and because of that, the focus of the remaining coaches and players is at a premium. For one last game week, travel day, and gameday, a group may convene for the final time together in their lives. Some might get new jobs, may retire, graduate or transfer. But one thing is for certain, they have an opportunity in front of them to prove the world wrong. Although they may be favored to win, a lot of experts will look at them like underdogs. Over the years of App State football, the experts have been critiquing this program over and over: “You can’t do that”, “You’ll never make it”, “You are making a mistake”. Every single time, this program has answered the bell, and proved all the doubters wrong. The never quit, never die attitude of App State football is ingrained in everyone who has come through the High Country, and it’s not stopping now. 

Middle Tennessee and App State have plenty in common. Both formerly of Division I-AA, the Blue Raiders and Mountaineers met twice in the playoffs, both meetings occurring in Murfreesboro, TN. The Blue Raiders won both of those games. Middle’s first year in FBS was 1999 and they spent fourteen seasons in the Sun Belt, winning the conference championship twice. In fact, the 2006 title was the last conference championship for Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders won Conference USA’s east division this year, but fell in the championship game to Alabama-Birmingham. Over the years, the Blue Raiders have faced many Sun Belt teams, beyond their involvement with the conference. Among those, Louisiana, Arkansas State, Troy, Georgia Southern, and plenty others. Despite the limited history between App and Middle, both schools have played a bunch of the same programs over time.

The Middle offense starts and ends with their quarterback Brent Stockstill who might go down as the best in program history. Stockstill is the son of head coach Rick, and has been a consistent player as a four year starter, take away a few games he lost to injury during his junior season. Stockstill is going to throw the ball anywhere from thirty to forty times in a game, and he is going to be on target. He has been sub-60% completing passes just once this season. Stockstill was injured in the Florida International game, and only threw seven times for twenty-eight yards. That was one of the five losses for Middle. In the other four losses, Stockstill threw at least one interception. Now, three of those fives losses were to SEC teams. The other two, Stockstill either didn’t play the whole game (FIU), or threw multiple interceptions (UAB). 

The Middle wide receivers are dangerous. The offensive staff does a good job getting players open with their creativity, which allows for the receivers to work well with the ball in their hands. Ty Lee is the leading receiver with 67 catches for 828 yards and seven touchdowns. He caught a pass in every game this season, and went over 100 yards twice, and all his touchdowns have come in the last seven games. Lee has 26 catches in his last four games, including 366 yards. Patrick Smith is a senior who is the second leading receiver, with 54 catches for 526 yards and six touchdowns. His lines are very up and down. Smith can have a one or two catch day, or he can catch eight or nine passes in a game. It doesn’t matter who they play, Smith can be active in losses or inactive in wins.  

The last time we saw the Mountaineers, some were wet, others perhaps covered in confetti, but all of us, were celebrating winning the first ever conference championship game in Sun Belt history. The second win of the season over Louisiana was a bit of a mudbath, you know had the field been made of actual grass. Neither team eclipsed a hundred yards passing, and both team rushed for 200 yards. There were eighty-eight running plays and thirty-five passes. The difference was App State turning over Louisiana twice, both on interceptions. Darrynton Evans ran for 111 yards, and added a 97-yard kickoff return on the Mountaineers opening possession. The Mountaineer defense turned in their tenth game of the season allowing fewer than twenty points, and gave up just one touchdown and four field goals. 

Bowl games are so much fun. Schools get an extra game to play against teams they do not typically get a chance to schedule during the regular season. App State and Middle are separated by just 340 miles. More games against peer schools should be scheduled, but it’s not that easy. Brent Stockstill is their Taylor Lamb, breaking tons of school records, including 300-yard pass games, completions, and touchdown passes. He seems to play well if he is on the field. He does not throw a lot of interceptions and scores points when they have the ball. If there one negative trait of the Middle offense, it’s that they do not score touchdowns enough in the red zone, at just a 57% clip. They have made up for it with sixteen made field goals in the red zone, which ups their total red zone conversion rate to 87.8%, which is good enough for 36th in the country. But, we all know about the App State defense. Despite allowing 81.8% of red zone possessions to end in a score, they are giving up just 2.25 red zones possessions a game. The touchdown conversion rate is just 48%. Appalachian will be just happy allowing the Blue Raiders to kick field goals all game long. Another key factor in postseason football is third down conversion rate. Middle is just 80th in the country converting third downs at a 37.8% clip, while App defends the third down at a 31.2% clip, which is tenth nationally. Couple that with App giving up only 3.58 yards per rush, and Middle coming in with the 104th ranked rushing offense. It appears that if App can continue what they have been doing all year long, being stout against the run, and forcing long yardage on third downs, it should be plenty to keep Middle out of the end zone in the French Quarter. 

 

The First Pick

Normalites 16

Mountaineers 28

Appalachian Football vs Toledo (Dollar General Bowl)

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Appalachian State (8-4, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs Toledo (11-2, 7-1 Mid-American)

Saturday, December 23rd, 2017 7:00pm est

TV/Video: ESPN

Radio: WKBC 97.3 Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Winston Salem, Hickory & High Country; WATA 1450 Boone, Blowing Rock; WGVZ ESPN 730 Charlotte, Rock Hill, Salisbury; WCOG 1320 Winston-Salem, Greensboro; WCMC 99.3 Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill; WZGM 1350 Black Mountain, Asheville; WDNC 620 Durham, Raleigh; WHKP 1450, WHKP 107.7 Hendersonville; WAZZ 1490, WAZZ 94.3 Fayetteville; WPWT 870 AM, 100.7 FM Bristol/Johnson City, TN

Ladd-Peebles Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 33,471

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

App State: 66.89

Toledo: 74.57

Home: n/a

Toledo is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 7.5 points (rounded)

Sportsbook: Toledo -7

Series: App State leads 1-0

Last meeting: App State 31, Toledo 28, December 17th, 2016

Two separate journeys have landed two similar teams at the same destination for the second season in a row. We’re not in Montgomery anymore, but it might feel like it. It was just 53 weeks ago when the Rockets and Mountaineers played a splendid game in the Yellowhammer State’s capital city. The game was so great, the bowl committee’s could not pass it up. There were gripes from both fan bases about an App State/Toledo sequel. With the New Orleans Bowl enamored with bringing in fans, the Dollar General reps chose a game between two conference champions. Once you think about it, you really can’t ask for much more out of a bowl game. These two teams are eerily similarly in their makeup, but have taken different paths to Mobile. Toledo was the runaway favorite in the MAC, and cruised through conference play only stumbling to Appalachian bowl victim #1 in Ohio. The Mountaineers did everything but cruise this year, battling through a plague of injuries mid-season, and rallying late to finish the season in dominating fashion. The Rockets look pretty, already reaching eleven wins, playing in and winning their conference championship game, and doing it all with relative ease. The Mountaineers looked good winning in November, but every other game was a battle, trailing at many times in the second half, only to recover and pull it out. Those experiences on both sides will assist them as they look for victory in the Port City. 

The Rockets have not changed much in a year. They still have a lot of the same pieces they featured in Montgomery in 2016. However, there are some critical pieces that are missing, such as Kareem Hunt, who has moved on to the Kansas City Chiefs. Double-digit touchdown catching tight end Michael Roberts is with the Detroit Lions. All played significant roles, but Toledo has not missed a beat. Quarterback Logan Woodside is back and had another huge season. He completed 65% of his passes for 3,758 yards with a cool 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Woodside threw for 300 or more yards seven times this season, and has just one game this season where he threw for less than 200 yards. Fifteen of his touchdown passes came against Akron, twice, and Tulsa. That’s down from his 2016 season which saw Woodside throw 45 touchdown passes. 

Terry Swanson took over for Kareem Hunt at running back, and the Rockets have not missed a beat. Swanson caught just one pass for nine yards in the 2016 Camellia Bowl, but has 1,319 yards in 2017 on the ground with 14 touchdowns. Swanson has played a ton in his Toledo career, amassing 3,557 yards rushing, but 2017 marks his breakout season as a senior. Swanson has eight 100-yard rushing games this season, all Toledo wins. He was kept under 100 yards and did not find the end zone in both Toledo losses. Swanson is not alone in the backfield. Toledo also sports a pair of 600-yard plus rushers in Shakif Seymour and Art Thompkins. Seymour eclipsed 100 yards against Central Michigan and added twelve touchdowns on the season as the Rockets premiere red zone threat. Thompkins also had one game with 100 yards against Bowling Green, but has seen his role decrease throughout the season. Thompkins had double-digit carries six times in the Rockets first seven games, but has just 22 carries in the last six games. 

The Rocket wide receivers are dangerous, and led by the Johnsons, Diontae and Jon’Vea. The former is the leading receiver with 72 catches, 1,257 yards and thirteen touchdowns. Jon’Vea has nearly replicated his junior season in 2017, with a 41/675/5 line. Jon’Vea just had two catches for 22 yards in last year’s Camellia Bowl. Diontae missed all of 2016 with a foot injury. The more well known Cody Thompson, who burned App State last year was injured earlier this season and is out for the season. The Rocket receiving corps have put up the numbers, but its a completely different group than the Mountaineers saw in 2016. 

The Mountaineers are led by four-year starter Taylor Lamb whose passing stats will never match up with a player like Woodside yardage-wise, but the touchdowns and efficiency are there. Lamb and Woodside have nearly identical stats in the touchdown to interception ratio, but what Lamb gives you that Woodside cannot are his legs. Lamb’s ability to run has come at almost perfect times this season, whether its a designed play or a great read, Lamb’s decision making has been nearly flawless in the ground game. His forty-five yard per game average is an integral part of the Mountaineer offense. Lamb shredded Toledo last year for 126 yards on only nine carries. His 119-yard passing performance against Toledo was aided by several dropped passes.

This season, Lamb benefits from a receiving corps that is almost entirely different from this time last season. The only constants are Ike Lewis and Dante Jones. They caught four of Lamb’s fourteen passes in Montgomery. They other ten completions went to players who have either graduated or moved on in one form or fashion. Toledo will have to contend with Thomas Hennigan, who plays faster on the field than he does on tape. Hennigan’s 556 yards and 7 touchdowns are nearly unheard of by a Mountaineer freshman. Slippery Ike Lewis has exploded in his senior season for 666 yards and 8 touchdowns and is a terror in open space. Lamb will likely want to rebound from that performance against Toledo a year ago. 

With all the talk about the signal callers, this game could come down to which running game excels the most. Appalachian has found its footing in their last three games to close the season. Initially I was concerned with a three week layoff between the season finale and the bowl game. That notion was quickly dismissed, considering App State went sixteen days between Georgia Southern and Georgia State, without any bumps, and then really proved their point against Louisiana. They key to Appalachian’s win last year could repeat itself a year later. The Mountaineers kept the Rockets off the field in 2016, possessing the ball for over 35 minutes of game clock, allowing Logan Woodside to drop back to pass just 26 times. The Mountaineers have averaged over 300 yards rushing per game in their last three, and nearly got there against Toledo in 2016, racking up 297 ground yards. The App State defense also has to do their part. Keeping Toledo off the field is not just up to the offense grounding out first downs. It’s important to keep Toledo off schedule. Woodside will get his passing yards, but the App’s must limit the explosive plays and keep Toledo uncomfortable. In both Rocket losses this season, they struggled to run the ball and became one dimensional. The Mountaineers must be disciplined on first down and tackle well. Both teams are familiar with Ladd-Peebles Stadium. App beat South Alabama there in 2015, and Toledo won the GoDaddy Bowl after the 2014 season. The weather could provide an interesting challenge and completely change the way this game is played. Forecasters are calling for rain most of the day. Ball security will be increasingly important. These two teams combined for zero turnovers last year, but I expect we’ll see a couple on Saturday. Whoever takes care of the ball late will win.

The First Pick

Bottle Rockets 31

Mountaineers 35