Appalachian State (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ James Madison (10-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 18th, 2023 2:00pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
Bridgeforth Stadium
Capacity: 24,877
Surface: Fieldturf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 70.19
James Madison: 76.04
Home: 2.45
James Madison is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.3 points
VegasInsider Line: James Madison -8.5
Series: App State leads 12-5
Last Meeting: App State 28, James Madison 32, September 24, 2022, Boone, NC
We’ve all seen the made for television debate shows. The talking heads of daytime sports viewing remind us all what it’s like when the Mountaineers head to Atlanta for a football game. Same as it ever was, ten times over. And that leads into the fourth straight biggest game of the year for the Mountaineers. The season has been on the line since the second conference loss to Old Dominion. The first goal of securing bowl eligibility has been accomplished. Next up, facing a ten-win team with aspirations of sticking it to the NCAA. And oh yeah, that College Gameday program will be on site, as the Mountaineers will make their second appearance on the show in as many years, but this time as the road team. App State has found a groove and James Madison could be distracted with all the postseason waiver appeals and television cameras and personalities who likely want to talk about the same topic repeatedly.
It will be difficult to spend a lot of time on the James Madison schedule and try and dissect why they have won all their games. Many times, you’ll want to point out, “Hey, they have not played anyone!”, but for Madison, that not exactly the case. The Dukes scored 12 unanswered fourth quarter points to edge by Virginia back in Week 2. It was a P5 win on the road, even if the road trip was only about 60 miles away. Madison has shown they can win in a variety of ways which is typically what is bound to happen over the course of a season when you have ten wins. They have won ugly and pretty. Five of their games have been decided by one score. The Dukes defeated both Georgia Sun Belt schools by four touchdowns. They had some close wins over Troy and Old Dominion, and a win over Marshall that looked more lopsided than the final tally. The important thing to keep in mind is, that they won them all.
The success of the James Madison largely starts with Arizona transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud. Week in and out he has been a consistent force, rarely having a bad week in the stat column. Last Saturday was probably a situation where McCloud could have rested the second half, when you consider the lopsided 44-6 victory over one-win UConn. However, this game was close in the third quarter, with James Madison leading just 16-6. But the next three Madison drives were all touchdowns, most of those yards consumed by McCloud throwing the ball and ending each drive with a touchdown pass. On a day where James Madison had their worst outing of the season on the ground, McCloud shredded the Huskies for 457 yards and four touchdowns. The second half surge has been a common theme for Madison. They led Georgia State by a 14-7 margin at half before scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions in the third quarter. All those drives travelled at least 65 yards on at least seven plays.
There was cautious optimism last week. The Mountaineers had always handled the Georgia State Panthers by convincing scores anytime the two teams played in Atlanta. It was evident from the opening drive from Georgia State that the much-maligned App State defense was ready to take another step in getting things figured out. The Mountaineers forced an opening drive punt after three plays, and then bowed up in the red zone after the Panthers ran twenty plays before fumbling on the ensuing drive. The next nine Georgia State possessions covered all of 63 yards and included eight punts and one interception. The Panthers did eek out a couple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the damage had been done. The Mountaineers scored six touchdowns, three in each half, three on the ground and three by air. It was as balanced of an attack as we have seen all season from the offense despite some bobbled exchanges between the running backs and quarterbacks.
Last Saturday was a day to spread the ball around and six different Mountaineers scored. Makai Jackson had a breakout game, catching two long passes, one opening the scoring in the second quarter to give the Mountaineers a 14-0 lead. Jackson has now scored in back-to-back weeks and had a season high in catches and yards (3/98). Kaedin Robinson snuck behind the defense for a short receiving touchdown and Dalton Stroman turned on the jets for a 77-yard catch and run touchdown to open the scoring on the first play of the second half. The defense was stout all day, defending 87 plays, thanks to the Mountaineers getting up and down the field on offense with ease. They allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. The defense turned the Panthers over twice en route to allowing just 260 yards for the game. After surrendering 588 yards to Southern Miss, the Mountaineers have given up less than that figure in the last two games combined.
At this juncture of the season, most teams have put their best foot forward. Coaches know what they are about to face on the other side of the field. Rarely are there any surprises. From James Madison’s perspective, just about everything they have done has worked. Winning ten games does not happen by accident. Usually, along the way, teams will have a game or two where the margins are closer. As mentioned earlier, the Dukes have played in five one score games. Four of those games were consecutive and started with their Week 2 over Virginia. Three of those games were played on the road. Since that four-game run, James Madison has had it rather easy. Maybe too easy? The Mountaineers have played four nail-biting games on the road, but those games also occurred several weeks ago. An argument can be made that both teams last truly competitive game was against the same opponent in Old Dominion. I’m looking past Southern Miss for just a moment. Bear with me. Both games were one possession games that came down to the fourth quarter. Even with James Madison losing the turnover battle to Old Dominion, they had enough in the tank to slip by. Old Dominion converted nine of their eighteen third attempts, were perfect in the red zone and connected on both field goal attempts. Old Dominion really could not have played much better. But against this James Madison team, you almost must play perfect because they have been for most of the season. In all the “close” games that James Madison has played in, there has been a constant. The Dukes have given up 12 touchdown passes all season long, and every single one of them came in games that were decided by one score. Joey Aguilar has multiple touchdown tosses in every game this season outside of Wyoming, when the Mountaineers offense was also held out of the end zone. For the most part, Aguilar has improved weekly, cutting down on his early season interceptions and has made better decisions overall. James Madison’s defense was dominant against the run earlier in the season but has shown some vulnerability against the ground game of late. Seven of Madison’s opponents have had success throwing the ball against them, excluding teams with bad offensive lines and who have had offenses who have struggled late, such as Georgia State and Marshall. The Mountaineers are one of the hotter teams in the Sun Belt right now and confidence is building. How does it carry over into a huge game for the Mountaineers with the Dukes finally having nothing to play for except pride? This pick will have a little more heart in it than usual, but I believe in the Mountaineers will do what needs to be done to keep the division hopes alive.
The First Pick
Delegates 27
Mountaineers 34