Appalachian State (2-3, 0-2) @ Louisiana (4-1, 1-0)
Saturday, October 12th, 2024 7:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990
Cajun Field
Capacity: 41,426
Surface: Matrix Turf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 62.01
Louisiana: 67.45
Home: 2.85
Louisiana is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 8.29 points
VegasInsider Line: Louisiana -10.5
Series: App State leads 8-3
Last Meeting: Louisiana 24, App State 16, November 4, 2021, Lafayette, LA
Last week, the Mountaineers returned to football. It was a step in the road to recovery in the sense of returning to a normal routine. The result was obviously not what we were looking for, and the mistakes that occurred on the field can be expected from a group of young men who have gone through a disaster like nobody has ever seen in this state. Just getting on the field is a win. For a couple hours on Saturday, we thought about silly things like turnovers and penalties. But as the fourth quarter wound down, and the result was clear, slowly our minds crept back to the reality of a recovering region. And by the time we play again this week, we’ll take another step. Eventually schools will reopen, and roads will be repaired, bridges built and our communities will come back to the life we once knew. It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. We just have to do it together.
It’s hard to believe that we have not seen these guys since 2021. The Mountaineers have played the Cajuns more times than any other Sun Belt team since they joined the league. Three times, they played against each other for the Sun Belt Championship. But after the conference expanded to 14 teams, those meetings which seemed annual, took a hiatus for a couple seasons. So what has Louisiana done since the last time we saw them? First off, they lost Billy Napier to Florida, who in turn, has had enough of him. Enter Michael Desormeaux, a first time head coach, who has spent his entire coaching career at Louisiana after a playing career as a Cajun. He is as much Cajun as Shawn Clark is Mountaineer. The Cajuns have had a 6-7 record in each of the last two seasons, but are off to a 4-1 start to the 2024 campaign. They garnered wins against some bad schools in Grambling, Kennesaw State and Southern Miss. They lost to in-state rival Tulane 41-33 and went to Winston-Salem and knocked off the Deacons 41-38. The Tulane loss looks like a quality one, as the Green Wave’s only two losses are to ranked teams, while any road scalp of an ACC team is better than not having one.
Louisiana is always going to be about one thing. They are going to run the football, and pass when they need to get you out of the box. They average nearly 190 yards per game on the ground, which is good for 40th in the nation, but it’s a healthy running game, gaining 5.5 yards per carry. More importantly for the Cajuns, its a group effort between two running backs. Bill Davis and Zylan Perry have been used interchangeably in their offense. In five games, Davis has 53 carries and Perry has 40 carries, with both having eclipsed 300 yards on the season, and both have healthy yard per carry averages at 6.8 ypc and 7.6 ypc respectively. Davis’ high water mark for carries in game occurred in the last two weeks, as he toted the ball 13 times against Wake Forest and 14 times against Southern Miss. Perry had a season high 11 carries against Wake Forest. Perry has also snagged seven passes and serves as a kick returner for the Cajuns where he averages 29 yards per return.
The Mountaineers took a baby step last week. The offense was able to to put some points on the board, but their own early miscues dug themselves a hole they could not get out of. Despite allowing another opening drive score by Marshall, the Mountaineers answered, and then took a lead after the first play of second quarter at 10-7. Sixty-two seconds later, Marshall had scored on a 75-yard pass play, and a 13-yard interception return, and suddenly, the Mountaineers were back in that unwelcome yet familiar territory. The Mountaineers never got closer than 11 points for the remainder of the game. You could consider the entire second half as garbage time. The points were there, but the stops were not. Marshall punted twice, kneeled out the clock to end both halves, and scored on every other drive. South Alabama punted three times, fumbled once, and score on every other drive. A lot of improvements could be made by just forcing the other team to punt two more times over the course of the game. The odds of winning would go up tremendously.
Back before this season started, the stretch of games in September were the ones that were most talked about. A gauntlet of some sort, with a power opponent, an in-state rival, a short week and premier peer game. Nobody talked about coming off of September and heading into two road conference games in October. Now with the Mountaineers record at 2-3, and having lost a game on the schedule, getting to six wins feels like a task. Now that your record likely needs to be 6-5, there is less margin for error if a bowl game is part of your future. It makes this game against Louisiana almost feel like a must win. And that’s a bad spot to be in so early in the season. Somehow, someway, the Mountaineers are going to have to find a win in Lafayette. A three game losing streak going into an off week does not bode well. So how are they going to do it? Louisiana has played some subpar teams. We have talked about that already. The Cajuns defense held those three teams to a total of 32 first downs. And those stats aren’t skewed. Grambling 12, Kennesaw St 12, Southern Miss 8. Tulane converted 18 first downs, which is a rather pedestrian amount until you consider they benefitted from an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return touchdown. Those scores put the Green Wave up eleven points and they cruised to the finish by running the football. Tulane only threw for 83 yards the entire game. They didn’t need to throw. Wake Forest converted 28 first downs against Louisiana, and five of those were by penalty. Someone please shout to the heavens “ACC REFS!!” Still Wake was able to do pretty much whatever they wanted to do. They accumulated 218 rushing yards and 254 passing yards, which doesn’t include 83 yards in penalties. What am I getting at? I do not think the Cajuns defense has been tested. Louisiana still came out of Winston-Salem with a win, but that’s mainly because Wake’s defense is struggling just as much as Appalachian’s is right now. Wake only forced one Louisiana punt, and the Cajuns turned it over on downs once. Every other possession was a score. Sound familiar? Another odd statistic that means nothing, but could mean something. Cajun quarterback Ben Wooldridge has thrown all three of his interceptions in the two home games Louisiana has played. Appalachian has just one interception on the year, which is abnormal. But in order to get the picks, you have to slow down the ground game. That’s where it all starts and ends.
The First Pick
Peppers 30
Mountaineers 32