Appalachian State (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) @ Southern Miss (1-6, 0-4 Sun Belt)
Saturday, October 28th, 2023 3:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: Fieldturf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 67.29
Southern Miss: 51.48
Home: 2.00
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.81 points
VegasInsider Line: App State -17
Series: Southern Miss leads 2-0
Last Meeting: App State 20, Southern Miss 21, November 20, 2014, Hattiesburg, MS
This sport can be harsh sometimes. The line between winning and losing is thin. Whether it’s one play, one call by the officials, or a collection of a couple plays and couple bad bounces. More often than not, these things even themselves out over time, it just seems most turns of events are bouncing away from the Mountaineers. It’s been a hard pill to swallow for several weeks. Being so close, yet so far. But the only way to change your fortunes is to keep working. And when the bounces start coming back, the wins will become sweeter because you earned it. Nobody wants it more than the players and if anyone does want it more, it’s the coaches, because they want to see it for their players. And most importantly, we all want to see them succeed. So as you normally would, pack your vehicles, head for the mountains, catch up with former classmates and enjoy what is left of the fall foliage. And when you head into Kidd Brewer, give your all, because those players are giving theirs for you.
Last season, in its first year in Sun Belt play, Southern Miss managed a 4-4 conference record with wins over Arkansas State, Texas State, Louisiana and UL-Monroe. All four of those wins were within the division. They lost both East division games, to Georgia State and Coastal. This season, Arkansas State and Texas State avenged their losses. Most recently, Southern Miss was manhandled by South Alabama last Tuesday evening. The score was 55-3, and it looked worse than that. That game marked the fourth time this season that Southern Miss scored 13 points or fewer in a game. Outside of an opening week win over Alcorn State, and playing high scoring games against defensively bad Arkansas State and shootout prone Texas State, the Southern Miss offense has struggled. Backup quarterback Holman Edwards, previously of Houston, relieved regular starter Billy Wiles, previously of Clemson, in the loss to South Alabama. Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall was noncommittal of who might start this weekend.
The Eagle offense managed 149 yards against South Alabama. Sixty-five yards came on their final drive of the game, in which ended in a fumble. The previous week, Southern Miss lost to Old Dominion, and their lone touchdown was a punt return. Southern Miss has not scored an offensive touchdown since September 30th. They are not as bad as they have played in recent weeks, but their margin of error is quite small. Quarterback play has been a major issue. Wiles has played well against bad teams, and against good teams, he has struggled. All seven of his touchdown passes came against those subpar defenses in Alcorn, Ark. State and Texas State. Those three games were also the only ones in which he threw for 215 or more passing yards. In the other four games, his passing yards never surpassed 180 yards. Those numbers do not seem too far off, but the run game numbers likewise reflect poor output. The Golden Eagles averaged 204 yards rushing in the “poor defense’ games, compared to just 86 yards rushing against Florida State, Tulane, Old Dominion and South Alabama.
Last Saturday night created a low point for the Mountaineers, who are now on the wrong side of the win-loss column. The Mountaineers scored three times, each time occurring on fourth down. It’s honestly a wonder that the result of this game was not worse. Failing to convert on any of those fourth downs could have the changed the final tally dramatically. Only the Wyoming game created a lower point total for the Mountaineers, with 22. App State scored five times in that game. Plenty of folks have been looking for consistency for the Mountaineers. One of the main gripes was starting games quicker. Turns out, App has played better from behind all season than they have while out front. The Mountaineers scored first against Old Dominion and Wyoming, and held leads in the third quarter, but ultimately lost. Truth is, in the last four games, a game defining odd play has taken place in each fourth quarter that dramatically shifted the result. The blocked field goal at Wyoming. The goal line stop in Monroe. The fumble against Coastal. The botched mesh play in Norfolk.
In his first career start, Kanye Roberts performed about as good anyone could have expected. Still just a redshirt freshman, who had logged only thirty carries this season, Roberts took on 26 carries against Old Dominion. Roberts touched the ball on eight of the Mountaineers ten drives. The majority of Roberts’ yards came in the first half, aided by a 24-yard and 12-yard carry on the second series for the Mountaineer offense. Although his paced slowed in the second half, it was Roberts who carried the ball eight times for twenty-eight yards on the drive that put the Mountaineers up 21-20 in the third quarter. Those carries were not scattered either. All eight carries were in a matter of ten plays, that moved the offense to the edge of the red zone. After twenty carries through the Mountaineers first six drives, Roberts carried the ball just six times on the last four drives.
It’s quite crazy to think we come this far and not mentioned any Southern Miss playmakers. Franke Gore Jr is easily the most recognizable player, being the son of longtime NFL running back Frank Gore. His season has resembled the Golden Eagles season almost to a tee. Gore carried the ball six times in the win over Alcorn State, figuring there was not much need for him to carry the load in an FCS game. Gore eclipsed 100 yards twice this season, in those Arkansas State and Texas State games. All four of his rushing touchdowns came in those games. Since those outings, Gore has been stuck. He carried the ball 29 times for 66 yards against Old Dominion and 12 times for 37 yards against South Alabama. With 434 yards on the season, Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards a carry. Gore is really close to his pace of having a third straight 800-yard season, which is still very consistent, but behind some expectations considering he was a Sun Belt first team pick in the preseason. Backup running back Rodrigues Clark was spotted with a cast on his hand on Tuesday at practice. Assuming Clark does not play Saturday, that leaves the Golden Eagles thin at the position. Next in line for carries would be Kenyon Clark, who has only thirteen rushes on the year, but ten came in their last game. Tiaquelin Mims has a punt return touchdown to his credit and is also Southern Miss’ third leading receiver. Overall, the Mountaineers will be facing another team facing quarterback uncertainties. That makes the fifth game this season they have had to think about more than one quarterback on the opposing team. As a result, the Mountaineers will be preparing for another bottom-quartile team in terms of offensive yards, first downs generated and third down conversions. Oddly enough, Southern Miss is one of better red zone teams in the country, but that is mainly due to being 2nd in the country in red zone field goals. Of their red zone scores, over half of them are field goals. I’d love to sit back here and say something simple, like field goals won’t be enough to beat the Mountaineers at home. Then again, the last four games have been nothing like a Saturday afternoon home game in Boone. It will have been six weeks between Saturday home games for the Mountaineers this week. That’s not an easy schedule to deal with for anyone. App State needs a rebound game in the worst way, and hopefully they can break the trend of one score games.
The First Pick
Royals: 19
Mountaineers 42